The COVID-19 Vaccine was one of mankind’s greatest accomplishments. It saved a World War’s equivalent of lives. https://t.co/s37XmB6zHN
— Scott Imberman (@imbernomics) June 26, 2022
Two Pfizer and BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine boosters updated to target the Omicron variant show a substantially higher immune response than the current Covid-19 vaccine. https://t.co/ApgvsxJ8Ay
— CNN International (@cnni) June 25, 2022
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From a longer thread:
China was first to spot Long-COVID in a large-scale study in Jan 2021- and there is no doubt this information influenced the decision to focus on a Zero-COVID strategy. That the long-term costs of a "let 'er rip" policy would be devastating to our economyhttps://t.co/t2glfCXFCN.
— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) June 27, 2022
There is no doubt that this information was published and is not secret. It’s just the response to it was far different in the West than it was in China. Our response to the prospect of a large portion of our population being disabled is dismissed as irrational. It is- to you…
Our response is not always scientific either- that’s for sure. Excess PPE, other forms of fomite mitigation are not supported by most Chinese academics at this point- these are implemented for various reasons by lower-level officials. Sometimes the “science” is social.
Our quarantine system, mass PCR testing is well documented. Our lockdowns- again, well documented. They vary from quick, moderate, and sensible to nightmarishly draconian, and incompetent. The one real “black box” that remains- that no one really has access to is contact tracing.
We have QR codes much like other countries, but ours tie into a system that enables government entities granular, real-time tracking of individuals. Buying a SIM card requires national ID and biometric authentication- without a smartphone and apps living here is very challenging.
There is of course human contact tracing- but time and again outbreaks have seemingly been tied to individuals living somewhat off-grid for various reasons. In Shenzhen during our last COVID surge it was refugees from Hong Kong avoiding local registration (and so had a bounty).
When you have a system already in place that can sort through millions of individuals and trace their precise location to a few meters outdoors- or the nearest WiFi AP point indoors, matching contact points and potential infection branches is trivial- and verifiable with CCTV.
Do I think that this is the “secret sauce” that is solely responsible for the relatively low levels of COVID in China? No, because other countries have had digital contract tracing schemes almost as good- but if you are looking for a poorly documented X factor- that’s it.
Much of our current pandemic response- lack of improved ventilation and air treatment, poor implementation of N95/KN95/FFP2 masks, a focus on fomites, is now woefully out of date and lags behind. But unlike the West our fail state for these things is to be over-cautious.
When whole buildings in Shanghai got infected due to everyone climbing up and down the same flight of stairs- huffing and puffing through leaky surgical masks to wait on crowded lines for daily PCR tests they just extended the lockdown- they did not drop it. It failed safe.
They had less information- not more, but acted on it in a more risk-averse manner.
There is too much evidence of a massive gulf in action based on identical access to excisting data, to require conjecture about hidden data- which would not be believed even if it did exist.In short, taking a buffet-style approach to Chinese mitigations, dismissing half of them out of hand as unfeasible or unscientific- and then when you don’t get the same results saying “they must be hiding something!” is, well…intellectually dishonest to say the least.
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… Advisors to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration are scheduled to meet on Tuesday to discuss whether to update COVID-19 vaccines for the fall. The updated shots are likely to be redesigned to combat the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, experts say.
Pfizer and BioNTech said that 30 and 60 microgram doses of a shot targeting just the BA.1 Omicron subvariant that was circulating last winter elicited a 13.5 and 19.6-fold increase in neutralizing geometric titers against that subvariant. A version of the shot that contained both the redesigned vaccine and their original vaccine elicited a 9.1 and 10.9-fold increase, they said.
The results were from a trial of 1,234 people aged 56 or older. The shots were well-tolerated in participants, the companies said.
They said that early laboratory studies suggest that both Omicron-modified candidates neutralize the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants that have been circulating more recently, though to a lesser extent than they do for BA.1, with titers approximately 3-fold lower. The companies say they are continuing to collect data on how well the boosters perform versus the more recently circulating strains…
Should young & otherwise healthy patients take the antiviral Paxlovid after testing positive for #Covid? The antiviral has not been shown to be valuable among people in their 20s or 30s. But older people have benefited https://t.co/U3rVHfCYVD
— delthia ricks (@DelthiaRicks) June 27, 2022
… What will come next?
That’s anybody’s guess. The parade of Omicron subvariants could continue, with new variants picking further holes in existing immunity. “Nobody can say BA.4/5 is the final variant. It is highly probable that additional Omicron variants will emerge,” says Kei Sato, a virologist at the University of Tokyo. Researchers have identified several spots on the spike protein that are currently recognized by the antibodies that are triggered by vaccination and previous infection, but that could mutate in future Omicron strains.Another possibility is the emergence of a variant from a branch of the SARS-CoV-2 family tree different from the one that bore Omicron. Repeat Omicron infections could build broad immunity against successive lineages, creating an opening for a totally different SARS-CoV-2 variant that is unfamiliar to people’s immune responses, says Gupta. “The bar is getting higher and higher for a virus to take over.”
Increasingly, scientists think that variants including Omicron and Alpha probably originated from months-long chronic SARS-CoV-2 infections, in which sets of immune-evading and transmissibility-boosting mutations can build up. But the longer Omicron and its offshoots continue to dominate, the less likely it is that a totally new variant will emerge from a chronic infection, says Mahan Ghafari, who researches viral evolution at the University of Oxford, UK.
To succeed, future variants will have to evade immunity. But they could come with other worrying properties. Sato’s team found that BA.4 and BA.5 were deadlier in hamsters than was BA.2, and better able to infect cultured lung cells. Epidemiology studies, such as the one led by Jassat, suggest that successive COVID-19 waves are getting milder. But this trend should not be taken for granted, Sato cautions. Viruses don’t necessarily evolve to become less deadly.
It’s also unclear when the next variant will appear. BA.4 and BA.5 started emerging in South Africa only a few months after BA.1 and BA.2, a pattern now being repeated in places including the United Kingdom and United States. But as global immunity from repeated vaccination and infection builds, Althaus expects the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 waves to slow down.
One possible future for SARS-CoV-2 is that it will become like the other four seasonal coronaviruses, the levels of which ebb and flow with the seasons, usually peaking in winter and typically reinfecting people every three years or so, Althaus says. “The big question is whether symptoms will become milder and milder and whether issues with long COVID will slowly disappear,” he says. “If it stays like it is now, then it will be a serious public-health problem.”
On The Road – Albatrossity – Spring 2022 in Flyover Country – Week 5
New Deal democrat
Nationwide cases continue to remain within a tight range, presently at 103,100. Hospitalizations have started to increase again in the last few days, now up to 33,400, roughly a 6% increase from one week ago. Deaths have increased back over 350 to 361. This is mainly due to an increase in CA.
While the Northeast is still declining, NY and NJ may be beginning to increase again, as may WI and MO in the Midwest, PR, and OR as well as CA in the West. A number of States in the Deep South, to the extent they bother with reporting, may also be increasing as well, particularly TX which has shown a sharp increase.
The increases are probably due to the ascendency of BA.4&5, which the CDC will probably report tomorrow now make up close to 50% of all US cases. Within a month they may make up 90%. Still, I don’t see much evidence for a major new wave, and remember that South Africa’s only lasted 6 weeks from start to finish.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
NYSDOH says 366 new cases for 6/24/22
50 new cases for 6/25/22
No report for 6/26.
(PCR tests only).
So we went from double digits back up to triple digits and
back down to double digits again. This must be why the old Monroe
County site is only reporting the 7 day rolling average now.
Just when I thought it might be safe to finally see a hairdresser…366 new cases.
New Deal democrat
“ Epidemiology studies, such as the one led by Jassat, suggest that successive COVID-19 waves are getting milder.… One possible future for SARS-CoV-2 is that it will become like the other four seasonal coronaviruses, the levels of which ebb and flow with the seasons, usually peaking in winter and typically reinfecting people every three years or so.”
IMO, this is almost certainly where we are heading. *Not* because the virus evolves to be milder, but because humans are *co*evolving, as vaccinated and/or repeatedly infected humans develop more resistance, and because (sadly) by natural selection COVID will have killed off the most susceptible.
Baud
@New Deal democrat:
I was really hoping for a prehensile tail.
I blame Biden.
rikyrah
Go little one
Get that shot
WereBear
@rikyrah: Getting the littles protected this way has given me more peaceful moments :)
WereBear
The Baud Story.
In the sequel, how this explains the No-Pants campaign.
Soprano2
I got my second booster on Sunday. Hubby didn’t get his because he didn’t have his vac card with him; we found it on the kitchen counter when we went home. I’ll have to schedule him an appt. sometime this week. So far my only side effect is soreness in my arm. It’s strange, I didn’t feel either of the first two shots I got, but both boosters have caused soreness in my arm.
@New Deal democrat: It makes sense that this is where we’re heading. Covid is never going away, unfortunately.
Ohio Mom
The very first Pfizer made me very tired the next day but I have a lifestyle that allows the luxury of napping. No reaction to the next two Pfizer’s; the second booster, a Moderna, left me with a sore arm for two days.
The first Shingrix I took Friday left me exhausted and nauseous for one day and with a sore arm for three days and counting.
So I am getting used to reacting to vaccines and taking the after-effects in stride.
@Soprano2: Yes, Covid is never going away. Unless I get hit by the proverbial bus, I expect to get it eventually.
My main hopes are the current vaccines and treatments will blunt the worst of it , as well as the expectation that more effective vaccines and treatments will eventually be developed.
YY_Sima Qian
On 6/26 Mainland China reported 5 new domestic confirmed (0 previously asymptomatic), 18 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Shenzhen) cases, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 8 active domestic confirmed (2 at Guangzhou & 6 at Shenzhen) & 19 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Shenzhen) cases in the province.
Fangchenggang in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Dongxing. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 37 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 19 domestic confirmed & 12 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 85 active domestic confirmed & 76 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
At Hebei Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 5 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 6 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Dandong) cases, 4 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 2 via screening of residents under movement control. 5 domestic confirmed & 10 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 7 active domestic confirmed & 56 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Jilin Province 14 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered.
Beijing Municipality reported 3 new domestic confirmed (mild) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. 18 domestic confirmed & 12 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 1 residential compound is currently at High Risk, & 2 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Shanghai Municipality reported 2 new domestic confirmed & 2 new domestic positive cases, 2 persons already under centralized quarantine & 2 via community screening. There were 0 new deaths. 4 domestic confirmed & 20 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 49 active domestic confirmed (2 serious) in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 12 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
At Fujian Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic asymptomatic (3 each at Zhangzhou & Fuzhou) cases remaining.
Suzhou in Anhui Province reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 1 found via screening of persons in high risk occupations, & 2 traced close contacts.
At Jiangxi Province 1 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case (at Shangrao) remaining.
At Sichuan Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. The province is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there.
At Chongqing Municipality 2 domestic confirmed cases recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining.
Yunnan Province reported 1 new asymptomatic confirmed case, at Menglian County in Pu’er. There currently are 9 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 6/26, Mainland China reported 34 new imported confirmed cases (7 previously asymptomatic), 49 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 77 confirmed cases recovered (40 imported), 145 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (72 imported) & 7 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all imported), & 10,625 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 548 active confirmed cases in the country (320 imported), 2 in serious/critical condition (both domestic), 919 active asymptomatic cases (481 imported), 0 suspect cases. 97,790 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 6/26, 3,399.803M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 486K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 6/27 Macau reported 96 positive case, 46 are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 50 via community screening. Cumulatively 357 positive cases have been reported from the current outbreak (195 asymptomatic).
On 6/27 Hong Kong reported 1,873 new positive cases, 154 imported & 1,719 domestic (609 via RT-PCR & 1,110 from rapid antigen tests), 0 deaths.
On 6/27, Taiwan reported 28,580 new positive cases, 91 imported & 28,489 domestic (including 120 moderate & 85 serious). There were 91 new deaths (ages ranging from 30+ y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 5/14 – 6/24, 86 having a range of underlying conditions, 32 fully vaccinated & boosted).
bluefoot
@Soprano2:
I got my second booster a couple of weeks ago. Sore arm. plus mild redness, swelling and itching that lasted about a week. A much more mild reaction than the 1st booster. All my shots so far have been Moderna. I was hoping for a Pfizer booster but the pharmacy only had Moderna.
I have several large all-day in person work meetings over the next couple of weeks which is what prompted my decision to get my booster now rather than waiting for the Omicron-specific boosters.
Ken
@New Deal democrat: In any evolutionary race between a virus with a 30-minute generation time and replicas numbered in trillions, and a large mammal with a 20-year generation time and offspring numbered in single digits, I know which side I’m betting on.
Ken
@Soprano2: I had minimal reactions to my first two shots and first booster, similar to my usual flu vaccine reaction — sleepiness, and maybe a little soreness in the arm.
My second booster reaction was much stronger, I woke up in the night with chills and mild fever. I take this as a good sign it worked. The difference may have been because I had to work the day after the booster, so didn’t have a chance to nap during the day, as my body wanted.
Redshift
A friend got his toddler vaccinated this week. Much happiness all around.
Bill Arnold
@New Deal democrat:
SARS-CoV-2 is a novel family of viruses, with very different tissue tropisms than other coronaviruses. There is ZERO reason to believe that regular reinfections will not be sometimes causing serious post-acute sequelae for EVERY REINFECTION.
We would be wise to treat every infection with virus in the SARS-CoV-2 family of viruses as Russian roulette with one’s long-term health. Maybe with better odds than 1 in 6. 10 chamber revolvers have been made; maybe one of those. Maybe point it at a random part of the body rather than always at the head.
Kayla Rudbek
@bluefoot: my doctor finally agreed that I can get a second booster before I hit the big 5-0, and the only thing that is getting me to hesitate is that I would prefer a more tailored booster
Mike in Pasadena
Tremendous amount of useful info in today’s Covid update. Thanks, Anne.
Matt McIrvin
@Kayla Rudbek: I suspect that getting boosted now is not going to prevent you from getting another shot later when better ones exist–that’s going to be several months away.
(I got a second booster as soon as I could, but that was back in April; the short-term antibodies from that are probably already getting low.)
Matt McIrvin
@Ken: Our generation time is actually not the only relevant evolutionary time scale. B-cell resistance evolves in the body according to a kind of Darwinian process involving forced “hypermutation” in their genome and selection for attacking antigens. It’s pretty amazing.
Matt McIrvin
These long-burning chronic infections fascinate me, not only because they’re a probable source of new variants but also because of the evidence that they could be the basis of Long Covid (which would imply that Long Covid is curable, at least in some cases).
StringOnAStick
@New Deal democrat: Tourist season is in full swing here in OR, as made obvious by large well attended concerts most days per week here in Bend. I expect infection rates to rise sharply given the huge uptick in public gathering that started a week ago.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 2,003 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,556,664 cases. It also reported one death for an adjusted cumulative total of 35,746 deaths – 0.78% of the cumulative reported total, 0.79% of resolved cases.
There were 28,151 active cases yesterday, 141 more than the day before. 1,082 were in hospital. 31 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 19 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 1,861 more patients have recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,492,767 patients recovered – 98.6% of the cumulative reported total.
2,000 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. Three new cases were imported.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 5,938 doses of vaccine on 26th June: 525 first doses, 4,946 second doses, and 467 booster doses. The cumulative total is 71,223,075 doses administered: 28,035,261 first doses, 27,264,889 second doses, and 16,137,907 booster doses. 85.9% of the population have received their first dose, 83.5% their second dose, and 49.4% their booster dose.
YY_Sima Qian
On 6/27 Mainland China reported 1 new domestic confirmed (0 previously asymptomatic), 21 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new deaths.
Guangdong Province reported 1 new domestic confirmed & 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Shenzhen, 2 are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, 1 via screening of residents under movement control, 1 via community screening, & 1 via voluntary testing. There currently are 9 active domestic confirmed (2 at Guangzhou & 7 at Shenzhen) & 23 active domestic asymptomatic (all at Shenzhen) cases in the province.
Fangchenggang in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region reported 3 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Dongxing. 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 38 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
At Inner Mongolia “Autonomous” Region 20 domestic confirmed & 14 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 65 active domestic confirmed & 62 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the region.
At Hebei Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 5 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Liaoning Province reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic (all at Dandong) cases, 4 traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 2 via screening of residents under movement control. 3 domestic confirmed & 8 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 52 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
At Jilin Province 2 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered.
Beijing Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. 19 domestic confirmed & 6 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. The municipality is not publishing the count of active domestic positive cases there. 1 residential compound is currently at High Risk, & 2 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Tianjin Municipality reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all workers at the airport that interact w/ overseas arrivals, found via regular screening & have been living in “closed loop” management.
Shanghai Municipality did not report any new domestic positive cases. There were 0 new deaths. 4 domestic confirmed & 30 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 45 active domestic confirmed (1 serious) in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 10 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
Anhui Province reported 6 new domestic asymptomatic (3 at Suzhou, 2 at Huaibei, & 1 at Hefei) cases. All of the cases at Suzhou are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. The cases at Huaibei & Hefei recently came from out of province & tested positive during health monitoring period. There currently are 9 active domestic asymptomatic (6 at Suzhou, 2 at Huaibei, & 1 at Hefei) cases in the province.
In Zhejiang Province 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered.
At Fujian Province there currently are 6 active domestic asymptomatic (3 each at Zhangzhou & Fuzhou) cases remaining.
At Shangrao in Jiangxi Province there currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case remaining.
At Chongqing Municipality the last domestic asymptomatic case recovered.
Yunnan Province did not report any new positive case. There currently are 9 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
Imported Cases
On 6/27, Mainland China reported 15 new imported confirmed cases (2 previously asymptomatic), 63 imported asymptomatic cases, 0 imported suspect cases:
Overall in Mainland China, 77 confirmed cases recovered (31 imported), 126 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (62 imported) & 2 were reclassified as confirmed cases (both imported), & 9,499 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 487 active confirmed cases in the country (304 imported), 1 in serious/critical condition (both domestic), 875 active asymptomatic cases (480 imported), 0 suspect cases. 93,190 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.
As of 6/27, 3,400.103M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 598K doses in the past 24 hrs.
On 6/28 Macau reported 57 positive case, 24 are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 33 via community screening. Cumulatively 414 positive cases have been reported from the current outbreak (including 1 serious, fully vaccinated & boosted).
On 6/28 Hong Kong reported 1,685 new positive cases, 152 imported & 1,533 domestic (603 via RT-PCR & 930 from rapid antigen tests), 1 death (88 y.o., fully vaccinated).
On 6/28, Taiwan reported 44,428 new positive cases, 49 imported & 44,379 domestic (including 87 moderate & 93 serious). There were 103 new deaths (ages ranging from 30+ y.o. to 90+ y.o., actual dates of death range from 5/14 – 6/24, 97 having a range of underlying conditions, 43 fully vaccinated & boosted).