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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War For Ukraine Day 125: NATO Is Set To Expand. The Price Will Be Paid By the Kurds

War For Ukraine Day 125: NATO Is Set To Expand. The Price Will Be Paid By the Kurds

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Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)

Ukrainians!

All our defenders!

I have just taken part in a special meeting of the UN Security Council convened at the request of Ukraine. Convened by Albania – this state presides in the Security Council. We have taken advantage of all international levers to bring Russia to justice for state terrorism. For everything done by the Russian army against Ukrainians in Kremenchuk, in Ochakiv, in Lysychansk, in Kharkiv, in Dnipro, in many, many other cities of Ukraine. As of this evening, the total number of Russian missiles that have hit our cities is already 2,811. And there are many more air bombs, many artillery shells…

The UN Security Council today stood in silence to commemorate all Ukrainians killed by the Russian army on our land. The members of the Russian delegation looked at everyone present in the Security Council and also decided to stand up – just so as not to look like outright murderers. But everyone knows that it is Russian terror, it is the Russian state that is killing innocent people in this war waged against the Ukrainian people.

I called on the UN to use the existing mechanisms of the Charter to stop Russian manipulation of the Organization’s structures and to set up a special tribunal to investigate the actions of the Russian occupiers on Ukrainian soil.

Ukraine’s law enforcement and intelligence agencies are doing their best to identify all Russian servicemen responsible for the terror against our cities. The names, faces and all information about each of these terrorists will be known to the world. None of them will be able to avoid responsibility, and personal sanctions will not be enough for these people. A sentence and imprisonment are the minimum they deserve.

And I wish to say separately about the responsibility of those Russian propagandists who lie about this terror, who are trying to justify the actions of the Russian army. Each of you will also be punished. We have all the evidence of what the Russian troops are doing against our people.

Today, I want to end this address with one such piece of evidence – so that no one dares to deceive about the missile strike at the shopping mall in Kremenchuk. The Russian missile hit this very object, purposefully. Obviously, that was the order. It is obvious that Russian assassins received such coordinates for this missile. They wanted to kill as many people as possible in a peaceful city, in a regular shopping mall. Here is what happened in Kremenchuk:

(Video)

And for this act of state terrorism, as for all others, Russia will be responsible. On the battlefield in Ukraine, by the strengthening of sanctions and, of course, in the tribunal.

I am grateful to everyone who defends Ukraine. Today I signed a new decree on awarding our heroes. 314 more combatants were awarded state awards.

Eternal glory to our defenders!

Glory to Ukraine!

As of now there is no operational update from Ukraine’s MOD posted.

There was also no DOD background briefing today.

Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here’s their updated map for today:

As you can see there’s still not a lot of movement at the macro level. In the comments last night YY_Sima Qian asked if we could do some map comparisons over the last couple of weeks. This is a great idea. So you’ve got today’s map above and below we’ve got from – top to bottom – yesterday’s, 22 June, 19 June, 12 June, 8 June, 1 June, and 31 May.

I hope that seeing them one above the next helps you all visualize just how stable the lines are at the macro level over the past month. Where you actually see movement, which is Ukraine attritting the Russians and pushing them back, is in the south around/near/in Kherson, which isn’t getting a lot of coverage because all the reporters up near Sievierodonetsk.

We have some additional footage from the strike on the shopping mall yesterday. Here is specifically the clip that President Zelenskyy highlighted in his address:

And here’s multiple different video streams of the effects of the strike from a park adjacent to the Amstor mall in Kremenchuck. As far as I can tell no one in the video is injured. You can, however, actually see the blast wave in several of the clips.

And Norway has stepped up with an important addition to Ukraine’s arsenal:

Apparently Finland and Sweden came to terms with Turkey, which has resulted in Turkey lifting its threat to block their ascension into NATO. The price, as is always the case when dealing with Erdogan, will be paid by the Kurds.

All of this was to help Erdogan shore up his standing ahead of his facing reelection.

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57Comments

  2. 2.

    bookworm1398

    This is somewhat weird, but I don’t understand the shift from war crimes to terrorist. Are we saying terrorism is worse than war criming?

  3. 3.

    Andrya

    Damn. Damn, damn, damn squared. Gin & Tonic was right (no surprise) and I was wrong.
    Full disclosure: as well as some Kurdish extended family, I have extensive family ties to Finland. I was desperately hoping the Finns would not sell out to Turkey over NATO membership. Suppressing cash transfers to Turkish Kurdistan was bad enough, but returning terrorists? Which means anyone Erdogan says is a terrorist? Which means any opponent of Erdogan, who is a dictator? Absolutely sickening. Damn, damn, damn squared.

  5. 5.

    Alison Rose

    God…the video clip showing the missile hitting the mall is just…I don’t even have words. But I’m glad Zelenskyy isn’t letting anyone shy away from it.

    Thank you as always, Adam, especially for the dachshund tweet. My mom has been a dachshund lover since childhood, I sent it to her to give her a moment of joy.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Apparently Finland and Norway came to terms with Turkey, which has resulted in Turkey lifting its threat to block their ascension into NATO. The price, as is always the case when dealing with Erdogan, will be paid by the Kurds.

    Should be Sweden.

  9. 9.

    cain

    @Andrya:

    This is complete utter bullshit. Everyone has been selling out the Kurds. The U.S., the Norwegians, the Finiish – it’s disgusting.

  11. 11.

    Andrya

    @cain:  If you are saying my post is utter bullshit, I don’t understand you- I agreed that the Finns and Swedes had sold out the Kurds.  I didn’t address the issue of the US selling out the Kurds, but of course we did- for starters, Sec State Kissinger.

  14. 14.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Andrya: I’m hoping that once the NATO ascension is over they just blow Erdogan off. There’s no process for kicking a state out of NATO, which is why we’re stuck with an unreliable ally in Turkey because Erdogan has turned it into an illiberal managed democracy.

  17. 17.

    Andrya

    @Adam L. Silverman:  I’m going to write a letter to the Finnish embassy in Washington, and, if I can get addresses, to Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin- urging them to blow off (at least) Turkish demands for return of Erdogan’s political opponents.  Or, at least, to demand a fair trial, in the Finnish justice system, before anyone is considered a terrorist.  (Both speak English.)  I urge everyone concerned about this to do the same.

  19. 19.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    @Adam L. Silverman: My understanding is that NATO decision making is by consensus, so doesn’t Erdogan hold veto power?

    Don’t get me wrong, I love the idea of disempowering him.

  20. 20.

    Yutsano

    @Alison Rose :  I can’t watch that video. Just knowing the destruction it wrought…I really can’t see how NATO will avoid getting caught up in this. I don’t want World War III, I just can’t see how it can be deterred.

  22. 22.

    Andrya

    For those who would like to pressure the Finnish government:

    His Excellency Mikko Hautala
    Ambassador of Finland to the United States
    3301 Massachusetts Ave.
    Washington DC 20008

    President Sauli Niinisto
    Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
    Mariankatu 2, 00170
    Helsinki, Finland
    Email: [email protected]

    Prime Minister Sanna Marin
    PO Box 23, FI-00023 Government, Finland
    Email: [email protected]

  23. 23.

    Torrey

    Forgive an uninformed question/comment, but it seems to me that, while NATO membership is good for Sweden and Finland, in terms of being in the alliance, it’s a mixed blessing in terms of the overall situaiton, as it leaves Ukraine more isolated, since NATO countries have to be careful about the degree and kind of their support for Ukraine. Granted, neither Sweden nor Finland would want to jump into a war with Russia, but they were the only countries in the neighborhood who could have actually supplied major offensive weapons systems–the ones NATO is reluctant to contribute–and put boots on the ground in Ukraine to support the Ukrainian armed forces if needed, which NATO countries can’t do.​

  24. 24.

    Alison Rose

    @Yutsano: Re: NATO, I feel the same way. And I really wonder if Putin will manage to restrain himself from eventually attacking a NATO country. I know he’s not an idiot, but he also just seems like an absolute madman at this point.

  25. 25.

    Ohio Mom

    @Yutsano: That’s been my feeling for a while, that WW III is almost inevitable. I know, there’s an argument that it’s already started but I mean REALLY started.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Thanks Adam for posting the series of maps. Yeah, the frontlines have been pretty stable over past 4 weeks. Of course, the focus of the fighting for both sides has been at Sieverodonetsk, so the city changing hands would not really be visible on national level maps. The Ukrainian efforts in the Kherson direction appears aimed to relieve pressure from the Sieverodonetsk direction, by either diverting some Russian forces from the East, or to prevent the Russian from shifting more forces from the South to the East.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Ohio Mom: Silver lining of WW III: nuclear winter (not to mention the dramatically reduced human population, form nuclear fire or famine) will stop AGW in its tracks.

  30. 30.

    Andrya

    For those who want to pressure the Swedish government on behalf of Kurdish/Turkish refugees in Sweden:

    Karin Olofsdottr, Ambassador of Sweden to the US

    Embassy of Sweden

    2900 K St., N.W., Washington DC 20007

    Contact information for the prime minister of Sweden defeated me, even though it was in English.  And Sweden, being a constitutional monarchy, has no president.

  31. 31.

    Yutsano

    @YY_Sima Qian: Even more silver lining: nuclear war eventually leads to world peace, faster than light travel, and eventually the United Federation of Planets.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Yutsano: Ha! You know your Trek lore! It’s been ages since I’ve thought about it

    EDIT: I’ve actually forgot it was the background setting for Star Trek: First Contact.

  34. 34.

    West of the Cascades

    @bookworm1398: Are you referring to Zelenskyy’s call for naming Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism in the wake of this latest atrocity? It seems to certainly be both a war crime and terrorism, but the latter could have more immediate repercussions if the US State Department puts Russia on the list of state sponsors of terrorism (along with, currently, Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Syria). Some immediate unilateral sanctions would go into effect (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Sponsors_of_Terrorism_(U.S._list)#Sanctions). Senators Blumenthal and Graham introduced a resolution last month calling on the Biden Administration to do this, but I don’t know where the resolution stands.

  35. 35.

    Jerzy Russian

    @YY_Sima Qian:   That theme of WW III happening soon is also revisited in Star Trek Strange New Worlds.   The shit hits the fan in the next few decades, but all is well after a few hundred years.

  37. 37.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Alison Rose : 

    And I really wonder if Putin will manage to restrain himself from eventually attacking a NATO country.

    I don’t understand Putin’s ultimate victory plan. After all he’s done, win or lose Russia will never get back to the Big Boy’s table while his dynasty is in power. There is no going back to Russia’s old glory. At best he will be a junior partner to China’s foreign policy moves.

    India will still work with him somewhat, and I hope India’s trade negotiators manage to loot the place for all it’s worth.

  39. 39.

    Andrya

    @Torrey:  I’m not sure that is true.  Poland, a NATO member, has been allowing her territory to be basically a supply depot to the Ukrainian military.  Much though I loath him, putin would be justified in considering that to be an act of war.  The US, a NATO member, has been shipping masses of weapons to Ukraine through Poland.  That is an act of war of the part of the US.  putin has not retaliated because he does not dare- just as Hitler did not dare go to war with the US over Lend-Lease or US naval support for Britain in the Battle of the Atlantic.  (Hitler lost it and declared war on the US after Pearl Harbor- a decision I will never understand.)

    Like other posters on this thread, I think the risk of nuclear war is higher than any time in my lifetime- and I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Able Archer incident in 1983.  However, I think the risk of nuclear is higher if the west/NATO folds that if we consistently support Ukraine.  Fold, and  putin will be emboldened and keep doing it, and sooner or later he will push too far.

  40. 40.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Wombat Probability Cloud: Once they’re full members of NATO they can abrogate the agreement with him because there’s no mechanism for removing them from NATO once they’re in.

    Can/could does not equal will/would.

  43. 43.

    Yutsano

    @Jerzy Russian: ​
    @YY_Sima Qian: ​I am putting that in the realm of very much worth the watch. It’s also brilliant how they get out of a Prime Directive violation*.

    *Extremely minor spoiler. But watch Strange New Worlds if you can. It’s definitely high on the list of the New Trek stuff.

  44. 44.

    Alison Rose

    @Mallard Filmore: As Adam has mentioned, Putin’s goal is “Gimme back my toys, and if you don’t, I’ll burn the motherfucker to the ground so no one can play with them.” I don’t think he’s capable of rational thought beyond his obsession with Ukraine being part of russia again.

  46. 46.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Alison Rose : That is in line with observed facts.  It all falls apart when Putin dies.  He has hollowed out Russia so much that China will have to step in to keep the Federation from falling apart.

  47. 47.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Yutsano:

    @Jerzy Russian:

    I will have to check it out! Thanks!

    I drifted away from Star Trek in the aughts, & especially after the abominations that are the J.J. Abrams adaptations. The latter seasons of TNG & most of DS9 will always be my high point for the universe, & Star Trek: First Contact.

  49. 49.

    ColoradoGuy

    @Mallard Filmore: Interesting thought. The RU federation could end up being a Chinese client state after Putin dies (or is removed from power). RU burned all its bridges with civilized world. Their only friends are fellow dictators.

  50. 50.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    @cain: Totes agree!   The poor Kurds. They deserve better than being political pawns.

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @ColoradoGuy: As long as Russia retains its large nuclear arsenal, it will not be anyone’s client state. Putin will not be a junior partner in foreign policy to anyone, as he can play the spoiler to anyone’s. HIs re-invasion of Ukraine certainly has done no favors for China’s plans.

    However, Russia’s economy lacks diversification & vertical integration. Given current trends, Russia will become China’s resource appendage, & a captive market for Chinese tech. Given its lack of economic diversification & sophistication, Russia was always going to be a resource appendage for Europe or for China, or both. Its geopolitical interests would have been better served to be a resource appendage to both.

  54. 54.

    sab

    Turkey controls the Bosphorus, with all maritime transit between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. That is just a fact of life, and has been for thousands of years. Get over it.

    ETA We need them on our side. That is why they are in NATO.

  55. 55.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Here is a good Twitter thread on the recent developments, at a more granular level, in the war from Michael Kofman. I look forward to his upcoming thread on the status of Ukrainian & Russian forces’ quality & availability, which I agree is the far more pertinent question. We have seen many reports on the degradation & attrition of Russian combat power, but very little for the Ukrainian side other than hints (& for obvious reasons). However, a proper assessment of both sides’ force quality & availability is prerequisite to realistic projections about the likely future courses of the war.

  56. 56.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @James E Powell:

    But I’m hoping we can avoid those double-knit v-necks and the pants tucked into the boots thing.

    Don’t be dissin’ my kink, man.

  57. 57.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @sab:

    ETA We need them on our side. That is why they are in NATO.

    Ah, but we don’t need Ergodan. :)

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