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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War For Ukraine Day 129: The War In the East Grinds On

War For Ukraine Day 129: The War In the East Grinds On

by Adam L Silverman|  July 3, 20222:31 am| 25 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

We are actively preparing for the start of a special conference in Lugano, Switzerland. Its first day is on Monday. A large-scale international event dedicated to the reconstruction of our country. Reconstruction in the broad sense of the word. It is necessary not only to restore everything that the occupiers destroyed, but also to create a new basis for our life, for Ukraine – safe, modern, convenient, barrier-free. This requires colossal investments – billions, new technologies, best practices, new institutions and, of course, reforms.

And already on Monday, Ukraine will present in Lugano a national view on how to implement all this.

In fact, this is the largest economic project of our time in Europe and extraordinary opportunities for every state, for every company that we will invite to work in Ukraine to prove themselves.

The territory of 10 regions was affected by hostilities after February 24. During this time, we managed to liberate 1,027 cities and towns, and another 2,610 are still under Russian occupation. And most of them need to be reconstructed, hundreds of them were completely destroyed by the Russian army, they actually have to be rebuilt from scratch. But besides that, dozens of cities in other regions of Ukraine were hit by missiles. Hundreds of enterprises were destroyed. Among them there are also complex, very dangerous industries – chemistry, metallurgy…

Of course, we have already begun to restore normal life in liberated communities and territories on our own. But implementing such a large-scale project across the country, providing new safety standards and a new quality of life is possible only by attracting international capabilities.

Therefore, the Conference in Lugano can become an important step for the reconstruction of Ukraine. And when we implement this project – and I am sure that it will happen – this event might be considered its beginning.

Although a lot still needs to be done for our victory – and it is a difficult path, because the war continues – but already now we must do everything possible so that the aggressor loses not only on the battlefield, but also historically, conceptually… So that everyone in Russia remembers that Ukraine cannot be broken by anything, by anyone, even by a brutal war.

Today, the Russian army continued to fire missiles at our cities. As of the evening alone, there have already been six missile strikes, a total of 12 missiles. Mykolaiv, the Donetsk region… The airstrikes continued. Fierce hostilities continue along the entire frontline, in Donbas – the epicenter is, of course, in the cities of the Luhansk region. The enemy’s activity in the Kharkiv region is intensifying. We managed to oust the occupiers from Ivanivka, Kherson region, we continue to put pressure in the south of our country…

In many cities in the rear there is a feeling of relaxation now, but the war is not over – it goes on. Unfortunately, its cruelty is increasing in some places, and it cannot be forgotten. Therefore, help the army, help volunteers, help everyone who was left alone at this time. And constantly use all your contacts abroad, all your information opportunities – even just social networks to spread the truth about the war and about the crimes of the occupiers on our land.

Tomorrow and during the week there will be important negotiations and meetings for Ukraine – we do not reduce diplomatic activity for a single day. We also expect new decisions from partners regarding defense assistance to our state…

The main thing, no matter how difficult it is for us today, we must remember that there will be tomorrow. And tomorrow should bring maximum benefit to Ukraine – everyone should do absolutely everything possible for this.

I am thankful to all our defenders!

You are doing great! You are strong!

Glory to Ukraine!

There was no operational update posted for today by Ukraine’s MOD.

Here is Britain’s MOD’s assessment for today:

They did not post an updated map today.

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recently posted updated analysis and map for the Sievierodonetsk axis:

SIEVERODONETSK AXIS / 0300 UTC 1 JULU /UKR has established strong defensive line in urban area of Vovchoyarska: RU has stalled on P-66 HWY at Bila Hora; RU forces will likely continue offensive operations against the petroleum complex at Vovchoirvik. pic.twitter.com/oE4J8VdKbI

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 1, 2022

The DOD held a backgrounder yesterday (emphasis mine):

STAFF: All right. Good afternoon everybody. This is (Edited) from Defense Press Operations. Thank you for joining us for the call today. As you’re aware, the president authorized an additional security assistance package for Ukraine earlier today. We want to give you the opportunity to ask questions, so we’ve brought in a subject matter expert for you. Our ground rules, please refer to our subject matter expert as a Senior Defense Official. For your informational purposes, the subject matter expert today is (Edited). She’s the (Edited). She will open with some brief comments and then we’ll go to Q&A. We have about — we have a 30 minute hard stop. I apologize, but what I’ll do is I’ll turn it over to her and then we’ll go to the Q&A. Thanks.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be here again. I know it’s only been a week since we last spoke about the last security assistance package, and I want to, you know, at the outset thank you for your patience. I know we shifted this call slightly based on me being stuck in a meeting across the river, and also, you know, obviously Friday before 4th of July weekend, appreciate your time before the holiday here. So what I’d like to do is just briefly touch on a few battlefield developments just to give my take on them, some context and then discuss briefly the — the package of security assistance, the $820 million package that the president authorized today. So quickly on the battlefield update, you know three things that I wanted to touch on.

First, I know Snake Island, the — the — the retreat of Russia from Snake Island has been in the news. I — you know, I just wanted to foot stomp that. We do not believe there is any credence to what Russia is saying that this was a gesture of good will. In fact, you know, the way we view this development is that the Ukrainians were very successful at applying significant pressure on the Russians, including by using those harpoon missiles that they recently acquired to attack a re-supply ship. And when you realize how barren and deserted Snake Island is, you — you understand the importance of re-supply. So the Ukrainians made it very hard for the Russians to sustain their operations there, made them, you know, very vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. So that is, of course, is why Russia left the island and, you know, this isn’t a panacea of course but it does make it a lot easier to defend Odessa and in the future to be able to open up those sea lanes without Russia controlling Snake Island.

But just to underscore the real challenge in the Black Sea of course is Russia’s blockade. So the second thing I just wanted to touch on, everybody’s watching the fighting in the Donbas very closely. It is still this grinding war of attrition and, you know, since Ukraine conducted the managed retrograde that we spoke about last week, from — from Severondonetsk. Now all eyes are on Lisichansk and, you know, we are seeing Russia, you know, claiming — claiming dominance but I will — I will tell you there is active fighting in the — in the town and fighting particularly around the oil refinery. And I think this is another one of these examples where we see Russia paying such a high price for tiny bits of gains in terms of territory, and — and — and that is the case today in Lisichansk.

The other thing to note is that, you know, that we’re watching Ukraine’s use of the HIMARS and we’re seeing them having a good deal of success in employing these — these HIMARS. You know, to — to include things like targeting command posts, so this is a very positive development in — in the east.

And then last but not least, the development that I wanted to mention about this tragic Russian attack on June 27th on the shopping center. We do believe that the missile that was used was highly likely designed as an anti-ship weapon, and what’s, you know, what’s significant about this is, you know, this is not a weapon that would have been optimized for accuracy against ground targets in an urban environment. So it’s just yet another example of how Russia is using systems in a reckless fashion that result in significant collateral damage. So those are the battlefield updates that I just wanted to touch on and then turning to the announcement today of the $820 million in additional security assistance for Ukraine.

This combined both presidential drawdown and Ukraine security assistance initiative funding. So taking those in turn, the drawdown is the 14th drawdown of equipment from DOD inventory since August of last year. And it — it– this is a $50 million package and it is exclusively focused on additional ammunition for those HIMAR system, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. And it is once again the, what we call the GMLRS, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System munitions that we are providing.

Now under the Ukraine security assistance initiative, we are providing three different capabilities. One is additional rounds of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition. This is really a staple of — of the fight in the — the Donbas and we’re providing up to 150,000 rounds. We’re also providing for additional counter artillery radars, also very useful for this fight, in artillery fight but the item that’s new that I wanted draw your attention to is two NASAMS systems. So this is, NASAMS stands for National Advanced Surface to Air Missile Systems, and this was a system that was co-produced with Norway. So we appreciate, you know, Norway’s support for us to be able to provide this system to Ukraine and this is an air defense system that obviously produced — co-produced by the U.S. and Norway is a — a NATO system. So for us, it’s — it’s important for us to be able to start to help the Ukrainians transition their air defense system from what is now a Soviet type system, to be able to introduce some of this modern technology.

Now I do want to emphasize and we’ve spoken about this before, the Ukrainians are doing a magnificent job of employing their existing air defense systems, but we all know that a Soviet type system means that it’s Russian made. And so, over time it will be harder to sustain with the spare parts, so that’s why we want to make sure that they — they have access to modern air defense systems. The other thing I want to just mention, I think everyone knows this but it’s probably worth restating. Drawdown, so that’s the — the — the HIMARS munitions in this package, it comes directly from U.S. stocks. So that’s coming straight from the U.S. military, whereas Ukraine security assistance initiative, this — these are items that are going out and procuring from industry. So what you’ll typically see with the timelines, you’ll see drawdown is happening in a matter of days, whereas the items that we’re procuring from industry through our contracting process, those items typically take more like weeks or even months. So I just want to — to — to flag that.

So I think the only thing to leave you with, you know, the grand totals at this point, the U.S. has committed $7.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration and that’s $6.9 billion since the beginning of the invasion on February 24th. So that’s, you know, we’re — we’re — we’re definitely continuing steadily to — to provide assistance to Ukraine in its time of need. So I’ll open it up there.

Q&A at the link.

What the Senior Defense Official has delineated above about the Security Assistance that the US and our allies are providing is all good news. However, as we’ve been discussing going back to the newsletter that Cole asked me to do when the site was down, if the Republicans retake the House of Representatives it is all going to stop. On the first day of the next Congress. Which is what Putin is counting on happening.

Russia is betting that Republicans take over in 2023. They know that Trump ⁦@mattgaetz⁩ ⁦@RepMTG⁩ will cut of funds to Ukraine. Leaving it defenseless. pic.twitter.com/tzHENKY25k

— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) July 2, 2022

The bottom of Congressman Gallego’s screen grab got cut off in his tweet. Here’s the whole thing:

They’re not subtle. And the Russians are amplifying their messaging:

Yet again, Marjorie Taylor Greene's comments are being used by Kremlin propagandists on Russian state TV. State TV host and State Duma member Evgeny Popov is interpreting her statements to mean that she wants Americans to help Putin win in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/nYLntOYdtb

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) July 2, 2022

Something something aid, something something comfort, something something enemy…

As the Senior Defense Official mentioned, the Ukrainians forced the Russians off of Snake Island on Thursday:

Operational Command South confirms, the russian occupiers have left the Snake Island.
They couldn’t stand the weather – the ground was burning under their feet, the sea was boiling, the air was too hot.
P.S. russian warships go f…ck yourselves!

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 30, 2022

Let’s wrap it up tonight with a Kyivan (or wherever she’s from in Ukraine) Valkyrie!

Our female soldiers ✊🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/qtHil0tl9o

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) July 2, 2022

And we finish with your daily Patron!

💬If you've ever been told: "You can't do it,” "Don't bite off more than you can chew," don't be offended. Look carefully at this person and remember their facial expression. Then go about your business. And when everything works out, remember that look on their face and smile. pic.twitter.com/empI6T1Zm6

— U24 (@u24_news) July 2, 2022

And from Patron’s official TikTok, someone had an unauthorized snack!

@patron__dsns

Саочатку не беруть з собою на роботу, а потім дивуються, чому в них псуються тапки.. #патрондснс #песпатрон #славаукраїні

♬ Why Should I Admit – Stationary Sign

Here’s the English translation of the caption:

They don’t take saochatka with them to work, and then they wonder why their sneakers get damaged.. #patrondsns #pespatron #slavaukraini

I’m sure Gin&Tonic will be along to confirm, but I gather “soachatka” is a Ukrainian term for athletic shoe.

Open thread!

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Reader Interactions

25Comments

  1. 1.

    caphilldcne

    July 2, 2022 at 10:50 pm

    Thanks for these updates Adam. This ongoing grind with the Russians is pretty irritating and I honestly am sad there’s not some easy knockout blow to send them scurrying back to mother Russia.

    on a more personal note, has anyone else encountered fascists invading their Twitter feed?  (I had a bunch jump into a friend’s thread about Roe – seemed like a bunch of incels decided to swarm together and send out disinformation that turned to Ukraine as I am currently displaying a Ukrainian flag as my pic. I’m pretty sure they’re deluded trumpist MAGAt’s (not actual Russians from their Twitter farm) but it’s kind of irritating. Any good ideas on shutting down their bs?

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    July 2, 2022 at 10:55 pm

    I’m terrified of what will happen if things go badly in November. These fucking monsters like Gaetz seem to be salivating over the prospect of deserting Ukrainians in their hour of need. Who knows what the situation will be like over there in four months, but I doubt it’ll be such that they wouldn’t need our assistance any longer. Even once the war is done and Ukraine is victorious (which is the only way I can think about it), they will need massive aid in rebuilding. It makes me want to cry and scream all at once to think that the ostensible “most powerful nation on Earth” would pretty much give them the finger just to own the libs and suck up to their daddy Putin.

    The entire modern GOP has about as much worth and decency as a blown-up russian tank.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    Redshift

    July 2, 2022 at 11:04 pm

    @caphilldcne:

    Any good ideas on shutting down their bs? 

    Block, and also report if it’s a Twitter terms of service violation.

    I seem to recall that Twitter was taking about adding a feature to let you block people from replying to your tweets, so your followers wouldn’t see them either, but I don’t think that’s happened yet. (Currently if you block them, you don’t see their replies but other people do.)

  4. 4.

    caphilldcne

    July 2, 2022 at 11:10 pm

    @Redshift: yeah disengage seems the way to go. I have a tendency to want to tell them go eat a bag of salted dicks (did Cole originate that phrase?) but I’m in a somewhat political environment and my easily searchable Twitter is probably not the right place to engage in that. I’ve considerably dialed back on drunk tweeting for the same reason.

  5. 5.

    caphilldcne

    July 2, 2022 at 11:15 pm

    @Alison Rose : I’m pretty certain that the President’s role as commander in chief is at its widest and there are things we can do even with a hostile congress. Although avoiding some outrageous Iran contra type scandal to move supplies would be wise.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    July 2, 2022 at 11:23 pm

    That word in the Patron Tik Tok is a typo. Should have been “спочатку” (the п and а are next to each other on the Ukr keyboard.) Anyway, means from the outset, or from the beginning. He’s saying you didn’t take me to work with you, what did you think would happen to your sneaker.

  7. 7.

    debbie

    July 2, 2022 at 11:28 pm

    I recognize that universal pup look of caught-at-it-again shame!  ❤️

  8. 8.

    debbie

    July 2, 2022 at 11:37 pm

    Will the Democrats be the only ones to oppose ending aid to Ukraine? It’s not an overstatement that not one member of the GOP supports our efforts to hold onto Democracy?

  9. 9.

    Eolirin

    July 2, 2022 at 11:54 pm

    @debbie: If they continue to use the Hastert Rule in the house, if they can’t get a majority of Republicans to support something then it doesn’t get a vote. There are enough whackjobs in the current house Republican caucus that they’d be able prevent it from being the majority position of the Republicans, even if there’s enough Republican support that it’s the majority position of the house.

    It’s not going to get better if they take a majority.

  10. 10.

    bbleh

    July 2, 2022 at 11:56 pm

    @debbie: IMO, it’s not about Ukraine.  It’s domestic tribal warfare from beginning to end.  Biden (squishy internationalist lib) supports Ukraine, while Trump (manly defender of America) supports Russia (because something manly pectorals something strength and NOT AT ALL ANYTHING TO DO WITH personal financial obligations to Russian oligarchs or Russian interference in US elections, which are all FAKE NEWS), and therefore loyal members of the Tribe oppose aid to Ukraine.

    Democrats seem to think these things are about “policy” or “real-world consequences.”  They’re not.  They’re about identity, full stop.

  11. 11.

    debbie

    July 2, 2022 at 11:56 pm

    @Eolirin:

    One would think a principle (will not use that verb) matters more than a rule. Alas.

  12. 12.

    James E Powell

    July 2, 2022 at 11:58 pm

    @debbie:

    I switched to saying “overrides”

  13. 13.

    Eolirin

    July 3, 2022 at 12:00 am

    @debbie: It’s about what happens to the Speaker if he breaks it; the Republicans can force him out of the Speakership. They’d have the majority necessary to do so.

    Speaker decides what comes up for a vote.

    It can and does get broken when they’re in power, it’s just an informal guiding principle, it’s nothing actually official in the House rules, and it isn’t always worth a leadership fight when the speaker breaks it, but it puts a serious limiter on how frequently it happens or on what.

  14. 14.

    bbleh

    July 3, 2022 at 12:04 am

    And repeating a comment from elsewhere, I’m sorry, but the whole Snake Island thing from beginning to end has been a TOTAL PROPAGANDA WIN OMG !!!!11!! for Ukraine.

    I have seen commentary about the advantages conferred but the limitations thereon, including the difficulties of reclaiming the land yadda yadda, but as a morale-booster not just for the entire nation but for those outside Ukraine who are working to support it … wow!

    Were I in charge, I would immediately send a small group of volunteers with a BIG flag and EVERY CAMERA they could find to get back on the island, do an Iwo Jima thing, and broadcast it to the moon.  They can leave immediately afterwards; who cares.  WHAT a victory …

  15. 15.

    Eolirin

    July 3, 2022 at 12:04 am

    @bbleh: Eh, in this case they’re about money, full stop. Tucker and other propogandists are the ones pushing the anti-Ukraine stuff. There’s actually pretty solid Republican support for Ukraine among their base voters. That support is being actively eroded by people who are definitely on the Russian payroll. If they weren’t getting paid, they wouldn’t be pushing lies and the base would stick to their more natural inclination to be anti-Russian aggression. Enough that it’d be a really fringe position, I think.

    This should be something we can all agree on. And it’s not just tribal antipathy toward Biden that’s making it not.

  16. 16.

    bbleh

    July 3, 2022 at 12:22 am

    @Eolirin: Ok, but despite “solid support,” they’re doing what Tucker says, and they’re doing that because Tucker is High Priest of the Tribe, and one obeys Tribal authorities.

    Now for Tucker it may well be about money, either directly from Russia or because they think there’s a financial advantage in taking a contrary position (or both!), and certainly for Trump it’s always been about money (both sons confessed to it), but for the Base it’s about the Tribe.  It makes me uncomfortable, but Trump says and Tucker says, so I obey.

  17. 17.

    Jinchi

    July 3, 2022 at 12:56 am

    @bbleh: ​ I would immediately send a small group of volunteers with a BIG flag and EVERY CAMERA they could find to get back on the island

    I wouldn’t send anyone without a solid military purpose. Ukraine already has it’s propaganda win. The Russians were massacred there because it’s completely exposed.

    That works both ways. The Russians just bombed the island yesterday. ​​

  18. 18.

    Anne Laurie

    July 3, 2022 at 1:51 am

    @caphilldcne: eat a bag of salted dicks (did Cole originate that phrase?)

    IIRC, it was one of the front-pagers at the lamented Sadly, No!

    Although, come to think,  it was probably TBogg who elaborated the original ‘go eat a bag of dicks’ into ‘eat a bag of lightly-salted-with rat-poison dicks’…

  19. 19.

    Carlo Graziani

    July 3, 2022 at 2:26 am

    Note that “drawdowns” are shipments of existing, paid-for stocks of US weapons in DOD armories. The administration has complete autonomy to continue those irrespective of what Congress does because no budget authority is involved. Replacing those stocks is a different matter, but I rather like the politics of the Republican yutzes refusing to fund the US armed forces.

    So in other words, US arms shipments to Ukraine will continue in high volumes in 2023 no matter who wins the 2022 midterms.

  20. 20.

    rm

    July 3, 2022 at 7:00 am

    Why is Gaetz not yet in jail for sex trafficking of minors.

  21. 21.

    Geminid

    July 3, 2022 at 7:19 am

    @rm: Prosecutors are still rounding up more witnesses. We’ve all “known” that Gaetz violated child sex trafficking laws since Joel Greenberg’s attorney’s let reporters know that their client could incriminate Gaetz. Greenberg was Gaetz’s running buddy and “wingman.” If one looks at the formidable list of crimes Greenberg is accused of, though, it’s hard to see how Gaetz could be convicted of anything on Greenberg’s word alone.

    So prosecutors have gathering more witnesses while asking Greenberg’s sentencing judge for postponments. The judge is now telling prosecutors to put up or shut up by August. Meanwhile Greenberg, the former Seminole County Tax Collector, is sitting in the Orange County jail.

  22. 22.

    zhena gogolia

    July 3, 2022 at 8:58 am

    that Popov clip is nauseating. Lock her up!

  23. 23.

    caphilldcne

    July 3, 2022 at 10:42 am

    @Anne Laurie: that sounds about right!  It’s a surprisingly useful phrase!  Also yes, Tbogg elaborations are always welcome.

  24. 24.

    Bill Arnold

    July 3, 2022 at 12:00 pm

    @Redshift:

    I seem to recall that Twitter was taking about adding a feature to let you block people from replying to your tweets, so your followers wouldn’t see them either, but I don’t think that’s happened yet.

    Wild. So the plan is to allow people to curate the replies to their tweets? So for instance, a cryptocurrency scammer could keep the user experience of reading their account and the replies pristine and entirely scammy?
    A fascist could block their readers from any replies that might violate the purity of their fascist minds?

  25. 25.

    NutmegAgain

    July 3, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    @Anne Laurie: Miss TBogg and the bassetts so much. And, wow that was a while back, eh?

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