War For Ukraine Day 129: The War In the East Grinds On

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

We are actively preparing for the start of a special conference in Lugano, Switzerland. Its first day is on Monday. A large-scale international event dedicated to the reconstruction of our country. Reconstruction in the broad sense of the word. It is necessary not only to restore everything that the occupiers destroyed, but also to create a new basis for our life, for Ukraine – safe, modern, convenient, barrier-free. This requires colossal investments – billions, new technologies, best practices, new institutions and, of course, reforms.

And already on Monday, Ukraine will present in Lugano a national view on how to implement all this.

In fact, this is the largest economic project of our time in Europe and extraordinary opportunities for every state, for every company that we will invite to work in Ukraine to prove themselves.

The territory of 10 regions was affected by hostilities after February 24. During this time, we managed to liberate 1,027 cities and towns, and another 2,610 are still under Russian occupation. And most of them need to be reconstructed, hundreds of them were completely destroyed by the Russian army, they actually have to be rebuilt from scratch. But besides that, dozens of cities in other regions of Ukraine were hit by missiles. Hundreds of enterprises were destroyed. Among them there are also complex, very dangerous industries – chemistry, metallurgy…

Of course, we have already begun to restore normal life in liberated communities and territories on our own. But implementing such a large-scale project across the country, providing new safety standards and a new quality of life is possible only by attracting international capabilities.

Therefore, the Conference in Lugano can become an important step for the reconstruction of Ukraine. And when we implement this project – and I am sure that it will happen – this event might be considered its beginning.

Although a lot still needs to be done for our victory – and it is a difficult path, because the war continues – but already now we must do everything possible so that the aggressor loses not only on the battlefield, but also historically, conceptually… So that everyone in Russia remembers that Ukraine cannot be broken by anything, by anyone, even by a brutal war.

Today, the Russian army continued to fire missiles at our cities. As of the evening alone, there have already been six missile strikes, a total of 12 missiles. Mykolaiv, the Donetsk region… The airstrikes continued. Fierce hostilities continue along the entire frontline, in Donbas – the epicenter is, of course, in the cities of the Luhansk region. The enemy’s activity in the Kharkiv region is intensifying. We managed to oust the occupiers from Ivanivka, Kherson region, we continue to put pressure in the south of our country…

In many cities in the rear there is a feeling of relaxation now, but the war is not over – it goes on. Unfortunately, its cruelty is increasing in some places, and it cannot be forgotten. Therefore, help the army, help volunteers, help everyone who was left alone at this time. And constantly use all your contacts abroad, all your information opportunities – even just social networks to spread the truth about the war and about the crimes of the occupiers on our land.

Tomorrow and during the week there will be important negotiations and meetings for Ukraine – we do not reduce diplomatic activity for a single day. We also expect new decisions from partners regarding defense assistance to our state…

The main thing, no matter how difficult it is for us today, we must remember that there will be tomorrow. And tomorrow should bring maximum benefit to Ukraine – everyone should do absolutely everything possible for this.

I am thankful to all our defenders!

You are doing great! You are strong!

Glory to Ukraine!

There was no operational update posted for today by Ukraine’s MOD.

Here is Britain’s MOD’s assessment for today:

They did not post an updated map today.

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recently posted updated analysis and map for the Sievierodonetsk axis:

SIEVERODONETSK AXIS / 0300 UTC 1 JULU /UKR has established strong defensive line in urban area of Vovchoyarska: RU has stalled on P-66 HWY at Bila Hora; RU forces will likely continue offensive operations against the petroleum complex at Vovchoirvik. pic.twitter.com/oE4J8VdKbI

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 1, 2022

The DOD held a backgrounder yesterday (emphasis mine):

STAFF: All right. Good afternoon everybody. This is (Edited) from Defense Press Operations. Thank you for joining us for the call today. As you’re aware, the president authorized an additional security assistance package for Ukraine earlier today. We want to give you the opportunity to ask questions, so we’ve brought in a subject matter expert for you. Our ground rules, please refer to our subject matter expert as a Senior Defense Official. For your informational purposes, the subject matter expert today is (Edited). She’s the (Edited). She will open with some brief comments and then we’ll go to Q&A. We have about — we have a 30 minute hard stop. I apologize, but what I’ll do is I’ll turn it over to her and then we’ll go to the Q&A. Thanks.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be here again. I know it’s only been a week since we last spoke about the last security assistance package, and I want to, you know, at the outset thank you for your patience. I know we shifted this call slightly based on me being stuck in a meeting across the river, and also, you know, obviously Friday before 4th of July weekend, appreciate your time before the holiday here. So what I’d like to do is just briefly touch on a few battlefield developments just to give my take on them, some context and then discuss briefly the — the package of security assistance, the $820 million package that the president authorized today. So quickly on the battlefield update, you know three things that I wanted to touch on.

First, I know Snake Island, the — the — the retreat of Russia from Snake Island has been in the news. I — you know, I just wanted to foot stomp that. We do not believe there is any credence to what Russia is saying that this was a gesture of good will. In fact, you know, the way we view this development is that the Ukrainians were very successful at applying significant pressure on the Russians, including by using those harpoon missiles that they recently acquired to attack a re-supply ship. And when you realize how barren and deserted Snake Island is, you — you understand the importance of re-supply. So the Ukrainians made it very hard for the Russians to sustain their operations there, made them, you know, very vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. So that is, of course, is why Russia left the island and, you know, this isn’t a panacea of course but it does make it a lot easier to defend Odessa and in the future to be able to open up those sea lanes without Russia controlling Snake Island.

But just to underscore the real challenge in the Black Sea of course is Russia’s blockade. So the second thing I just wanted to touch on, everybody’s watching the fighting in the Donbas very closely. It is still this grinding war of attrition and, you know, since Ukraine conducted the managed retrograde that we spoke about last week, from — from Severondonetsk. Now all eyes are on Lisichansk and, you know, we are seeing Russia, you know, claiming — claiming dominance but I will — I will tell you there is active fighting in the — in the town and fighting particularly around the oil refinery. And I think this is another one of these examples where we see Russia paying such a high price for tiny bits of gains in terms of territory, and — and — and that is the case today in Lisichansk.

The other thing to note is that, you know, that we’re watching Ukraine’s use of the HIMARS and we’re seeing them having a good deal of success in employing these — these HIMARS. You know, to — to include things like targeting command posts, so this is a very positive development in — in the east.

And then last but not least, the development that I wanted to mention about this tragic Russian attack on June 27th on the shopping center. We do believe that the missile that was used was highly likely designed as an anti-ship weapon, and what’s, you know, what’s significant about this is, you know, this is not a weapon that would have been optimized for accuracy against ground targets in an urban environment. So it’s just yet another example of how Russia is using systems in a reckless fashion that result in significant collateral damage. So those are the battlefield updates that I just wanted to touch on and then turning to the announcement today of the $820 million in additional security assistance for Ukraine.

This combined both presidential drawdown and Ukraine security assistance initiative funding. So taking those in turn, the drawdown is the 14th drawdown of equipment from DOD inventory since August of last year. And it — it– this is a $50 million package and it is exclusively focused on additional ammunition for those HIMAR system, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. And it is once again the, what we call the GMLRS, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System munitions that we are providing.

Now under the Ukraine security assistance initiative, we are providing three different capabilities. One is additional rounds of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition. This is really a staple of — of the fight in the — the Donbas and we’re providing up to 150,000 rounds. We’re also providing for additional counter artillery radars, also very useful for this fight, in artillery fight but the item that’s new that I wanted draw your attention to is two NASAMS systems. So this is, NASAMS stands for National Advanced Surface to Air Missile Systems, and this was a system that was co-produced with Norway. So we appreciate, you know, Norway’s support for us to be able to provide this system to Ukraine and this is an air defense system that obviously produced — co-produced by the U.S. and Norway is a — a NATO system. So for us, it’s — it’s important for us to be able to start to help the Ukrainians transition their air defense system from what is now a Soviet type system, to be able to introduce some of this modern technology.

Now I do want to emphasize and we’ve spoken about this before, the Ukrainians are doing a magnificent job of employing their existing air defense systems, but we all know that a Soviet type system means that it’s Russian made. And so, over time it will be harder to sustain with the spare parts, so that’s why we want to make sure that they — they have access to modern air defense systems. The other thing I want to just mention, I think everyone knows this but it’s probably worth restating. Drawdown, so that’s the — the — the HIMARS munitions in this package, it comes directly from U.S. stocks. So that’s coming straight from the U.S. military, whereas Ukraine security assistance initiative, this — these are items that are going out and procuring from industry. So what you’ll typically see with the timelines, you’ll see drawdown is happening in a matter of days, whereas the items that we’re procuring from industry through our contracting process, those items typically take more like weeks or even months. So I just want to — to — to flag that.

So I think the only thing to leave you with, you know, the grand totals at this point, the U.S. has committed $7.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration and that’s $6.9 billion since the beginning of the invasion on February 24th. So that’s, you know, we’re — we’re — we’re definitely continuing steadily to — to provide assistance to Ukraine in its time of need. So I’ll open it up there.

Q&A at the link.

What the Senior Defense Official has delineated above about the Security Assistance that the US and our allies are providing is all good news. However, as we’ve been discussing going back to the newsletter that Cole asked me to do when the site was down, if the Republicans retake the House of Representatives it is all going to stop. On the first day of the next Congress. Which is what Putin is counting on happening.

Russia is betting that Republicans take over in 2023. They know that Trump ⁦@mattgaetz⁩ ⁦@RepMTG⁩ will cut of funds to Ukraine. Leaving it defenseless. pic.twitter.com/tzHENKY25k

— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) July 2, 2022

The bottom of Congressman Gallego’s screen grab got cut off in his tweet. Here’s the whole thing:

They’re not subtle. And the Russians are amplifying their messaging:

Yet again, Marjorie Taylor Greene's comments are being used by Kremlin propagandists on Russian state TV. State TV host and State Duma member Evgeny Popov is interpreting her statements to mean that she wants Americans to help Putin win in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/nYLntOYdtb

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) July 2, 2022

Something something aid, something something comfort, something something enemy…

As the Senior Defense Official mentioned, the Ukrainians forced the Russians off of Snake Island on Thursday:

Operational Command South confirms, the russian occupiers have left the Snake Island.
They couldn’t stand the weather – the ground was burning under their feet, the sea was boiling, the air was too hot.
P.S. russian warships go f…ck yourselves!

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 30, 2022

Let’s wrap it up tonight with a Kyivan (or wherever she’s from in Ukraine) Valkyrie!

Our female soldiers ✊🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/qtHil0tl9o

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) July 2, 2022

And we finish with your daily Patron!

💬If you've ever been told: "You can't do it,” "Don't bite off more than you can chew," don't be offended. Look carefully at this person and remember their facial expression. Then go about your business. And when everything works out, remember that look on their face and smile. pic.twitter.com/empI6T1Zm6

— U24 (@u24_news) July 2, 2022

And from Patron’s official TikTok, someone had an unauthorized snack!

@patron__dsns

Саочатку не беруть з собою на роботу, а потім дивуються, чому в них псуються тапки.. #патрондснс #песпатрон #славаукраїні

♬ Why Should I Admit – Stationary Sign

Here’s the English translation of the caption:

They don’t take saochatka with them to work, and then they wonder why their sneakers get damaged.. #patrondsns #pespatron #slavaukraini

I’m sure Gin&Tonic will be along to confirm, but I gather “soachatka” is a Ukrainian term for athletic shoe.

Open thread!