Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

đŸŽ¶ Those boots were made for mockin’ đŸŽ”

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

The revolution will be supervised.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

People are weird.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

The lights are all blinking red.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

You are here: Home / Balloon Juice / Finally Friday Morning Open Thread: Taking Our Wins

Finally Friday Morning Open Thread: Taking Our Wins

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126Comments

  4. 4.

    Another Scott

    Thank you for this, AL.  The false doom and gloom in the news is exasperating.

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  7. 7.

    Betty Cracker

    I don’t pretend to understand economics, but this is the weirdest combination of market conditions I can remember — high inflation, low interest rates and virtually full employment at the same time. Has anything like this ever happened before?

  8. 8.

    narya

    My parents celebrated their 66th anniversary this year! I don’t know that they’ll make it to 76–largely because I don’t see Dad making it to 101.5 years old–but apparently they’re in a serious minority.

    Love to see that pic of Biles.

  9. 9.

    JML

    Simone Biles is just unbelievable. I’m interested in any competition she’s in and I don’t really care much about gymnastics. Her skill makes me wonder if there are any limits for humanity.

  10. 10.

    Baud

    @Betty Cracker:

    I don’t know about all three, but my cursory research suggests that high inflation is often a temporary result when there is massive upheaval.  You saw it after the 1918 pandemic which coincided with the end of WWI, and at the end of WWI and I believe the Korean War.

  11. 11.

    Doug R

    In Canada news, one of our largest cell phone and communications providers Rogers is down. So no debit cards, any companies using Rogers internet and/or phones are screwed, plus it’s the Calgary Stampede parade this morning. So about half the parade watchers have no cell service as of right now.

  12. 12.

    Suzanne

    @Betty Cracker:

    I don’t pretend to understand economics, but this is the weirdest combination of market conditions I can remember — high inflation, low interest rates and virtually full employment at the same time. Has anything like this ever happened before? 

    It’s exceedingly weird, right? I wonder if it is related to Boomer age cohort retirements, due to natural age progression as well as potentially early retirement due to the pandemic. The following generation (X) is smaller than the Boomers, so it seems like it could be possible for the economy to shrink (reduction in productivity because of a smaller working -age population) while maintaining a high level of employment.

  15. 15.

    Soprano2

    @Betty Cracker: I don’t think so, no, unless it happened after the 1918 pandemic. I saw an article somewhere about how there was also high inflation after that pandemic receded.

  17. 17.

    oldgold

    In 1920 on the heels of WWI and the Spanish Flu Pandemic the US inflation rate was 15.6% and the unemployment rate was 5.2%.

  18. 18.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Betty Cracker:

    high inflation, low interest rates and virtually full employment at the same time.

    Isn’t that a situation predicted by classical Keynesian economics? The Phillips curve proposed that full employment should be correlated with higher inflation. What baffled everyone in the 1970s was that that relation didn’t hold then.

    Maybe simple Keynesian reasoning explains our current situation just fine and people are just gunshy because they’ve been taught for decades that all that is too naive.

  19. 19.

    Eric S.

    My great grand parents made it 72 years. I remember them getting anniversary cards from Bush Sr. and the IL governor at the time.

  20. 20.

    Another Scott

    @Betty Cracker: I haven’t checked, but I’m not at all surprised by what we’re seeing:

    1. The economy was crushed early on in the pandemic.
    2. A lot of money is rolling out in various infrastructure projects, and a lot of money was put in people’s pockets during the pandemic.
    3. Employment is still not quite back to the pre-pandemic peak, and we know the economy wasn’t overheating then.
    4. The war in Ukraine has thrown a monkeywrench in the energy and food markets.
    5. Businesses are making money like mad.
    6. Scammers (NFTs and all the rest) are finding it hard to compete with actual money-making businesses, so their magic beans are turning to dust.
    7. The stock market had 2 years of huge returns, so a correction is expected.  But it’s still up compared to 18 months ago.  People who have 2+ year horizons are doing Ok.
    8. Supply chains are recovering.
    9. The US is out of the Forever War.
    10. Most interest rates paid by normal people aren’t directly tied to what the Fed is doing.  Readjustment in the housing market is quickly happening and price rises are moderating.  (A Fed governor made the point yesterday that a 3.5% Fed Funds rate isn’t enough of an increased cost to lead to increased unemployment.)

    In short, there are transient effects from recovering from the COVID crash.  More people have money that they can spend, and the mix of what people are spending on is different.  There’s transient inflation while the economy adjusts, but on the whole there are great reasons for optimism.  I continue to think that we may see a repeat of the Roaring ’20s.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  21. 21.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Another Scott: There seems to be a lot of handwringing/gloating about an impending recession, caused by the bear market in stocks. Some evil-boss types are positively salivating over it, looking forward to their ability to crack the whip again.

  22. 22.

    Soprano2

    @Betty Cracker: What I say to everyone is that Covid threw everything up in the air – the job market, what people buy, how people work, how schooling works, pretty much everything about how we lived our lives – and the pieces are coming down in a different arrangement than we had before. It still isn’t done so we still don’t know what the world will look like post-Covid. I don’t think it will be as different as some do (no, 80% of people will not be working from home!), but it will be different. I listened to a “This American Life” podcast about how schooling changed yesterday. They interviewed the man who won teacher of the year in MA for 2020, and then retired in 2021. He said the pandemic made him question everything about education and how we do it – the routines, the structure of it, even what we are teaching, everything. I think there is a lot of this going on, with people wondering if we need to still do things the old way or are there new ways to do stuff. I had my annual mammogram yesterday. The only place where masks are still required around here are in doctor’s offices and hospitals. I asked the person who did my procedure if she thought we’d be wearing masks in hospitals and doctor’s offices from now on, and she said she hoped not but we might be. In hospitals it makes sense, think about how many seriously ill people are there who don’t need to be exposed to any contagious disease.

  23. 23.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2: I’ve been seeing a lot of people hoping for some new catastrophe that will kill all of this inconvenient re-thinking and force everything back the way it was before. Certainly a lot of the dissatisfaction with Biden and Democrats is about that.

  24. 24.

    Anyway

    @Leto:

    Wingnut WI supreme court strikes again. This court is terrible for voting rights and stacked with R hacks.

  25. 25.

    japa21

    Quick comment about the Medal of Freedom ceremony. The best line was after the last recipient had received his medal and Biden stepped back and told the audience while gesturing to the recipients, “This is America”.

    Immigrants, POC, varied religions, sexual diversity both in gender and identity.

    Truly what America is all about. Tucker Carlson must have gone into a rage.

  26. 26.

    Soprano2

    @Matt McIrvin: It seems to me that some people in the press are trying to cause a recession by obsessively talking about how bad inflation and high gas prices are. Part of a recession is mental – if people think things are bad, even if things are good for them, they’ll act like things are bad, and eventually it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

  27. 27.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Soprano2: Kind of the inverse of the way that in the short term, electing Republicans really is good for the stock market, for no other reason than that stock traders are usually Republicans and this makes them happy.

  28. 28.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Suzanne: i think the Boomers retiring and Pandemic related retirements are underestimated. I think there’s a segment of people who really buckled down after the Great Recession  so they could retire. I have a few coworkers like that. They either lost their houses or came close to it and just started working their butts off so they had the money to retire. Also I think there’s a good size underground economy made easier because of the internet(independent gig jobs,selling on offerup/CL) that isn’t accounted for in the numbers.

  30. 30.

    Betty Cracker

    @Soprano2:  I heard that same “This American Life” episode a while back. Your theory about the general upheaval making people rethink everything sounds right to me. Interesting times!

  31. 31.

    Leto

    @Anyway: yup. 4-3 ruling along the usual lines. Apparently WI had been using ballot drop boxes for years with no issues, but something about 2020 was different
 per the article:

    For years, ballot drop boxes were used without controversy across Wisconsin. Election clerks greatly expanded their use in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic as absentee voting hit unprecedented levels.

    By the time of the presidential election, more than 500 ballot drop boxes were in place across Wisconsin. Some Republicans balked at their use, pointing to a state law that says an absentee ballot must “be mailed by the elector, or delivered in person, to the municipal clerk issuing the ballot or ballots.”

    The state’s high court on Friday ruled that meant voters themselves must return absentee ballots and cannot use drop boxes.

    Wondering how that applies to military personnel overseas. “Sorry, your vote doesn’t count unless you get your ass on a plane back to WI and hand deliver your ballot.”

  32. 32.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Mai Naem mobile: My parents, who were slightly pre-Boomer, got hit by the big real-estate collapse and recession just as they were about to sell the house I grew up in and scale down for retirement, and it led to my dad working for several more years than he planned. But then he did retire. And since then, the Boomers I know mostly have too.

    The Boomers finally getting out of the way probably does explain some of the labor-market tightness. Note also, inflation is scarier if you’re a retiree than if you’re drawing a paycheck that might go up sometime.

  33. 33.

    debbie

    @japa21:

    The group’s certainly far less mediocre than the white segment of this country, the one that sits back and passively expected to be treated as the best and only true Americans.

  34. 34.

    Baud

    @Leto:

    The law says the ballot can be mailed. That’ll cover the military.

    The drop box ban sucks, but at least they aren’t throwing out votes after the fact.  WI Dems should have time to adjust.

  36. 36.

    Baud

    @Matt McIrvin:

    The Phillips curve proposed that full employment should be correlated with higher inflation

     
    So inflation is Biden’s fault. He should have kept unemployment high!

  37. 37.

    trollhattan

    @Betty Cracker: I graduated straight in to stagflation, then the comedy team of Volker-Friedman decided one high, hard screwing wasn’t enough and went with their ratchet approach, setting the stage for Reagan and the Laffer curve. That took more than a decade to sort out, which Clinton kind of managed in his own weird way.

    This ain’t that–instead being high inflation/high employment–but having gazed with horror at my biggest 401k’s statement showing it has shed four years of net income in six months, I’m hoping it’s short term.

    I do not require “correction” Mister Economy. Thank you. I know the errors of my ways.

  38. 38.

    trollhattan

    @Matt McIrvin: When I was in econ, every time the professor discussed this model he had to caveat it with a “but this does not explain what we are seeing now” disclaimer. Econ in the ’70s was pretty lit.

  39. 39.

    Betty Cracker

    Was just reading an article about the senate race in PA, where Fetterman is running well ahead of the Jersey quack despite still being off the trail due to his cardiac issue.

    According to Politico, PA Republicans are panicking because Oz has gone dark on TV and doesn’t seem to be putting much money or effort into his campaign.

    Meanwhile, Fetterman dropped a new ad yesterday that looks perfect for a swing state and to capitalize on the candidate’s larger-than-life persona. I hope Fetterman beats the pants off the snake oil salesman!

  40. 40.

    Leto

    @Baud:

    The 4-3 ruling came a month before the state’s Aug. 9 primaries, when voters will narrow the fields for governor and U.S. senator.

    They have 30 days to make up for missing 500 drop boxes. I guess they should’ve expected to lose as soon as the lawsuit was filed, so they should’ve had plenty of time to make up for the missing 500 ballot boxes.

  42. 42.

    kindness

    Denzell will have to get his medal from President Uncle Joe 1 on 1 later when he’s able.  I can see them both mugging for the camera and everyone happy and joyous.  We need as much of that as we can get.  Funny how we have to keep reminding the citizenry what a government is supposed to be like.

  45. 45.

    Baud

    @trollhattan:

    This ain’t that–instead being high inflation/high employment–but having gazed with horror at my biggest 401k’s statement showing it has shed four years of net income in six months, I’m hoping it’s short term.

    I do not require “correction” Mister Economy. Thank you. I know the errors of my ways.

    This is the chief problem of right-wing capitalism.  It’s designed to get people high off of unsustainable asset appreciation. There are a bunch of crypto freaks who are learning that lesson pretty hard. 

    Ideally, for the wingers, the correction happens when a Dem is in charge (or takes over, as with Obama).

  46. 46.

    Matt McIrvin

    @trollhattan: Also, while the Fed has blipped the prime rate up a tiny bit, they haven’t even started doing the kind of squeeze that made business loans an utterly vicious thing in the 70s. It’s too early to conclude that it’s not going to work. But people are already looking at this situation and yelling “stagflation”.

  47. 47.

    hueyplong

    @debbie: I would say they’re keeping their heads down to avoid questions until the Jan 6 issue “blows over,” but in the Trump era only Dems are required to respond to any media questioning.

    So I guess it’s a mystery for now.

  49. 49.

    Geminid

    @Mai Naem mobile: A lot of people never made up ground lost during the Great Recession. I think that made a difference in our political culture, and buoyed the “populists” on both the Republican and Democratic sides. The Democratic party has adapted to this better than the Republican, I think.

    I think that I probably never gained back the ground I lost in that recession. I didn’t lose a house and I had no family to support, though. If I had, I don’t think I would have had “economic anxiety” but rather, economic rage.

  51. 51.

    Mike in NC

    @japa21:

    Immigrants, POC, varied religions, sexual diversity both in gender and identity. Truly what America is all about. Tucker Carlson must have gone into a rage.

    Yet the 2022 midterm elections will break down to being another attempt to “Make America White Again” unless we outvote the GQP cave dwellers.

  53. 53.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Geminid: Brad DeLong has been yelling about this for years. There was a recovery but we never got back to the curve that would have happened without the 2008 recession.

    I got laid off, arguably, twice during the whole business, once in the midst of the real-estate collapse of 2006 that hit New England earlier than most of the country, then again at the end of 2009 when the whole situation was pretty scary. (In between was, for a couple of years, the single coolest job I ever had.) But I managed to land on my feet rapidly both times. I was lucky.

    If anything, elites in Europe reacted worse than the US did, and it led to gains for the xenophobic far right there.

  54. 54.

    citizen dave

    @trollhattan: Econ major/graduate school guy here.  Come to think of it, my Econ 101 class was in the fall of 1979, although I had an interesting introduction of it (as vaguely as I can recall) in senior year of high school.  Your “the comedy team of Volker-Friedman” makes me laugh.

    Yesterday I saw a vending machine to “trade your crypto” in a local grocery, and thought, my econ professors never told us about this…   I can’t imagine the machine actually has activity, but what I do know?  I think crypto is crap/fraud/pyramid scheme stuff.  Buy low.  Sell high.  Certainly lots of real money has been made and lost.

    It’s morning again in America

    ETA: Our local gas stations must have not got the memo yet–gas still 4.99.

  55. 55.

    Matt McIrvin

    @citizen dave: The Portsmouth, NH community theater where my daughter did a drama camp several years ago had a Bitcoin ATM in the lobby. I don’t know if it’s still there.

  56. 56.

    Ken

    @debbie: I wonder if this is some sort of GQP “strategy.”

    1. Don’t spend any campaign funds.
    2. When you lose, scream about “fraud” and hope that the governor or a court overturns the election.
    3. When #2 doesn’t happen, keep the funds from #1, and start lucrative career on the wingnut circuit talking about how the election was stolen.
  58. 58.

    Technocrat

    @Betty Cracker: PA is in a weird place right now. In addition to Fetterman running way ahead of Oz despite health issues, several Republicans have endorsed Josh Shapiro (D) for Governor. From The Hill:

    “In the Legislature, Josh championed some of the strongest ethics reforms in Pennsylvania’s history, and as Attorney General, he’s continued to work with Republicans and Democrats alike to get things done,” O’Brien said in a statement. “That’s a stark contrast with his opponent, who continues to divide us and waste time and taxpayer money on his conspiracy theories and plans to upend Pennsylvania’s elections. We deserve a Governor who will bring people together, and that’s why I’m proud to endorse Josh Shapiro.”

    O’Brien is a former GOP Speaker of the House. I guess this would now be called the Liz Cheyney wing of the party.

  62. 62.

    Baud

    @raven:

    Oh wow.

    I know people want gas to be as cheap as possible, but I think $3.50-$4 range is kind of reasonable given normal inflation and the need to ween ourselves off of fossil fuels.  I recognize that it’s easy for me to say because I can afford those prices.

  63. 63.

    Captain C

    @Baud:

    This is the chief problem of right-wing capitalism.  It’s designed to get people high off of unsustainable asset appreciation. There are a bunch of crypto freaks who are learning that lesson pretty hard.

    I think one of Wall Street’s big underemphasized problems is that it is riddled with gambling addicts and cokeheads (often in the same person).

  64. 64.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Baud: Apparently gas prices have been dropping here in MA but it’s been modest enough that I didn’t notice. But it never was as bad here as on the West Coast.

    Also, my car is getting (last I checked) 48 MPG and goes over 500 miles on a tank, so I don’t have to fuel up too often and can gloat about that.

  65. 65.

    Baud

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I have a hybrid and I don’t drive a lot. I am looking at electric.  It’ll be my next car. It’s just a question of when. They are hard to get right now, and the tax and other incentives are kind of a mess.

  66. 66.

    New Deal democrat

    @Matt McIrvin: Since this gets into my wheelhouse, I am afraid I have to throw a little cold water on your optimism.

    One year+ before a recession, 7 things usually happen:

    Interest rates rise
    Real money supply declines
    Housing sales and starts decline
    Credit conditions tighten
    Corporate profits adjusted for labor costs decline
    Real spending per capita by consumers peaks
    Several near to medium terms Yield spreads of US Treasuries invert

    Of the above seven, only the last is still clearly positive. Corporate profits are equivocal, and the other 5 have all turned negative.

    Three to nine months before a recession, a number of other things typically happen:

    Stocks peak
    Initial jobless claims make a low
    Short term layoffs under 5 weeks bottom
    Average weekly manufacturing hours peak
    The ISM manufacturing new orders index falls into contraction
    Industrial commodity prices turn down
    Factory orders turn down
    Durable goods orders turn down

    Of the above, only the last two have not happened.

    While this morning’s good jobs report is a potent rejoinder to the idea that we are in recession now, once we get into autumn and especially once next year starts, all bets are off. The course of gas prices over the next few months will have a lot to do with this.

  67. 67.

    JustRuss

    Re Denzel, is there such a thing as a timely case of covid?  Also, I had no idea Rosalynn Carter was such a hottie.

  69. 69.

    japa21

    Why gas prices and inflation won’t be much of an issue in November. Keep in mind I am not a political savant or an economist or anything special whatsoever. So take what I say with a pound of salt.

    1. Americans have very short memories and tend to normalize things fairly quickly.
    2. Gas prices are dropping, but even more importantly are not rising. They don’t need to return to the earlier level. Another 50 cents drop should erase the sting.
    3. There is limited continuing raises in regular prices. Inflation is based on year over year and is already lessening to some degree.
    4. See number 1.

  70. 70.

    Kristine

    @Baud: Still well over $5/gal here in Lake County IL, though it has crept down 0.30/gal over the last week or so. Lowest I saw locally was $5.35 or $5.39 for brand name gas (I avoid the discount chains because of occasional rumors of bad gas, but they’re usually cheaper).

    Cars line up at a station on the WI border where it’s in the $4.60s.

  72. 72.

    Betty Cracker

    @Technocrat: I haven’t followed the PA governor’s race closely and figured Doug Mastriano was a garden variety Trump clown, which is dangerous enough, but a friend clued me in, and wow, he’s basically Mike Flynn without the twitchy QAnon baggage. I hope to dog Shapiro wins that race!

  73. 73.

    Geminid

    @Technocrat: The establishment wing of the Pennsylvania party- a group I would broadly brush as “Chamber of Commerce Republicans”- know that their party’s radicals will reduce Republicans to a permanent minority in their purple state. Unlike their counterparts in other places, the Pennsylvanians have decided to “take the bull by the horns” and oppose the radical Mastriano. Then they may fight it out with the radicals over the next couple cycles.

  75. 75.

    p.a.

     @fred_guttenberg

    Gas prices are dropping. Manufacturing is increasing. More people are working. People are spending money. Bottom line, the Biden investments in the economy are working. ENOUGH OF THE DOOM AND GLOOM.

    Must be time for the fed to bring on a recession!  After all, it’s only truly a free market when conditions favor employers!

  77. 77.

    ksmiami

    @Suzanne: Global pandemic, war, supply chain issues… there’s a lot of wild oscillations happening in the market. It’ll calm down.

  79. 79.

    James E Powell

    @trollhattan:

    but having gazed with horror at my biggest 401k’s statement showing it has shed four years of net income in six months, I’m hoping it’s short term.

    I’ve had the same experience and not just with my 403b but with the whole of my investment capital. I was hoping to retire this year, but that’s not gonna happen.

  80. 80.

    japa21

    @Kristine: ​
      Also, some areas are required to have a special gasoline blend during the summer months (Chicago area is one) which raises prices. Come fall, prices will drop.

  81. 81.

    Jeffro

    @debbie:J.D. Vance has disappeared, much like Oz has. I wonder if this is some sort of GQP “strategy.”

    With candidates like Vance and Oz, having them disappear IS smart strategy  ;)

  82. 82.

    Technocrat

    @Betty Cracker: I hope so as well. Fetterman winning would be amazing, but also a pickup of a seat we haven’t had in decades. Mastriano winning would unleash our wingnut legislative supermajority.

    PA without a  Democratic Governor would be Texas, more or less.

  83. 83.

    geg6

    @Betty Cracker:

    I will say this about the PA Dem candidates, especially Fetterman and Shapiro, and their allies:they are running hard, hitting hard and leaning hard into taking the fight to Oz and Mastriano and their lunatic followers.  And don’t be fooled.  Mastriano is definitely a Q, having spoken to many of their groups here, along with being an insane Christian nationalist and 1/6 seditionist.  Oz is just a giant carpetbagging phony.  Nobody likes him.

  84. 84.

    Baud

    @geg6:

    Good.  Anyone with a keyboard can offer suggestions on how to win elections.  We need people who have actually done it to provide a template for others to follow.

    For PA.

  85. 85.

    James E Powell

    @Betty Cracker:

    Here’s Fetterman doing a TED talk in 2013 when he was mayor. Just like the way I’m always interested in a band’s earliest albums, I like to see politicians when they started out. For most of them, it’s the last time they were anything like a normal person, the last time they were accessible.

  88. 88.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Geminid: I agree that there’s people who will.never make up what they lost  in the Great Recession but it was a wake up call for a segment of  people who got their finances straightened out. I don’t know about the GOP part of that or the economic anxiety.  I think that had more to do with the blackity blackity black guy being POTUS. BTW  the Boomers are a long generation so it also depends on where you are on that range. If you hit Medicare age you got to go through the golden gates of low health care costs and if you want or are able to you can afford to freelance and make more $$$. We have several self employed family friends who you can tell have hit the big 65 because they start traveling and taking more vacations because they aren’t shelling out $1500/mo for health insurance.

  89. 89.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Baud: There is seriously a concept of NAIRU (the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment, beyond which you get general inflation). A lot of economists believe the level of unemployment needs to be kept from getting too low for this reason and would argue that the current situation is a simple consequence of getting too far below NAIRU, which they put a little above 5%.

    Of course, we also had a situation where we very temporarily got up to 14.7% unemployment for a specific extrinsic reason, just two years ago, then dropped back down to super low unemployment again. That’s gotta play hell with everything in the economy. Part of right-wing criticism of Biden (and of the relief efforts that Trump participated in, though I suppose that’s down the memory hole now!) was that they weren’t willing to let the COVID unemployed suffer enough and it made them lazy.

  90. 90.

    Matt McIrvin

    @New Deal democrat: I’m not particularly optimistic about what will happen; I am just always a little appalled by how many people at any given time are cheering for a recession.

  91. 91.

    Baud

    @Matt McIrvin:

    I happen to believe that if we can get through this transition, we’re in for some good times.* The biggest risk is the GOP throwing a monkey wrench into the works because they benefit when the economy is bad.

    *Just a hunch.

  92. 92.

    Geminid

     

     

    @debbie: Vance and Oz need to get out on the campaign trail. They each won primaries with only 33% pluralities, and could only pull this off with trump’s endorsement. They both need to win over disaffected Republicans, and Independents too.

     

    @Jeffro:

  93. 93.

    trollhattan

    @citizen dave: Yesterday I saw a vending machine to “trade your crypto” in a local grocery, and thought, my econ professors never told us about this


    Holy crap that’s so weird (and so 2022).

  94. 94.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Baud: I’m just worried that “this transition” in this context will turn out to mean “mountains of skulls”.

  96. 96.

    Matt McIrvin

    @japa21: My experience with the politics of crime rates and “the economy” suggests to me that if Republicans simply say that gas prices and inflation are higher than ever, once the idea is in the general zeitgeist, many will believe them. Then when they get elected they can announce that everything magically got better, and people will believe that too.

  97. 97.

    Ken

    @Geminid: Vance and Oz need to get out on the campaign trail. […] They both need to win over disaffected Republicans, and Independents too.

    Perhaps their consultants told them that the best way to win over those demographics is to stay as far away from the campaign trail as possible, and in general hope that voters forget who they are?

  98. 98.

    James E Powell

    @debbie:

    J.D. Vance has disappeared, much like Oz has. I wonder if this is some sort of GQP “strategy.”

    I believe it is. He won the primary because of Trump and, at least until the Jan 6 committee is finished, he may not want to remind everyone of that.

    The voters that helped him win the primary are different than the ones he needs to win the general. He’s probably asking Youngkin where to buy his fleece or maybe Scott Brown where to get a barn coat.

  99. 99.

    Geminid

    @Ken: It could be Oz and Vance plan to win their races with advertising. I don’t think that will cut it though, especially since they are both carpetbaggers, Oz more flagrantly than Vance.

  103. 103.

    New Deal democrat

    @Geminid: The stimulus spending certainly helped create the biggest boom since the late 1990s, if not the 1960s, last year. The numbers say that the boom is fading.

  104. 104.

    Soprano2

    @Another Scott: Most interest rates paid by normal people aren’t directly tied to what the Fed is doing.

    I don’t agree with this point, because credit card companies are adjusting their interest rates as the Fed adjusts, so this is affecting normal people somewhat. Otherwise yeah, you’re pretty much spot on.

  105. 105.

    New Deal democrat

    @Matt McIrvin:

    “I am just always a little appalled by how many people at any given time are cheering for a recession.”
     
    I call these people DOOOMers. They are pests, and they are almost always wrong.

  106. 106.

    Geminid

    @New Deal democrat: The stimulus from the American Recovery Act will fade out soon. The Infrastructure expenditures are only beginning.

    Although if there is a recession we may get Infrastructure 2.0. Money can be added for clean water systems, Superfund clean ups, and public transit that would be justified investments. New York City’s MTA will get $10 billion for improvements under the current bill, but they could spend a few billion more judiciously. Same with other cities, and AMTRAK, which got $60 billion.

  107. 107.

    Another Scott

    @Baud:

    WISCONSIN: The far-right 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled to ban absentee ballot drop boxes—disproportionately harming voters with disabilities, in rural communities, seniors, young people and people of color. Our full statement here: pic.twitter.com/FHHKXNCliH

    — Ben Wikler (@benwikler) July 8, 2022

    Getting people fired up is essential, and Ben’s working on that.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  108. 108.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: We’re thinking about electrical upgrades and maybe solar and maybe batteries, to help cut our carbon output and prepare for electric transportation.  We’re waiting to see what kickbacks – if any – are coming in (Warning! Politico) any new Reconciliation bill.  I’ll bet there are lots of people who can afford it who are wanting to make the jump but are waiting to see what will happen on the incentives.

    Of course, if any big incentives are announced, then the contractors will instantly be booked up for the next 2 years, but them’s the breaks.  ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  110. 110.

    Soprano2

    @trollhattan: Same with the early ’80’s. I took Econ in 1981-1982, and it was the same thing. “We’ve never seen regular borrowing at 21% before”, stuff like that. It was surreal; my first car loan for a one-year-old used car from a dealership (not a buy here/pay here kind of place) was 16% interest! My husband sold his 4 print shops then because he couldn’t afford to borrow the money to expand (and he said he was tired of having 40 hours by Wednesday).

  111. 111.

    Soprano2

    @Geminid: I felt very, very lucky that in 2009 we made our last house payment, and didn’t have any other major debt.

  113. 113.

    Another Scott

    @Matt McIrvin: I can’t find it now, but one of my favorite economics stories is about actual evidence on NAIRU.  5-10 years ago there was a news story (Forbes?) about some town in the midwest (St. Louis?) didn’t see wages pick up until the unemployment rate was around 2.5%.  DeLong had a pointer to it (behind a paywall) and I posted here about it here a couple of times Before the Fire.

    5% NAIRU was dogma.  There was and is very little compelling evidence for it, and actual pre-Pandemic evidence that it is below 3.5% (probably below 3%).  (The Pandemic scrambled everything temporarily.)  Dean Baker’s been beating this drum for ages, of course.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  114. 114.

    citizen dave

    @trollhattan: To close my crypto comment (forgot to keep reading BJ after I commented); and per Matt’s comment at #55, I looked at picture I took and indeed it was a Bitcoin machine.  I only briefly looked at it, but the screen was saying “trade your crypto here”

    Step Right Up, everyone’s a winner.  Bargains! Bargains! We got bargains galore!  (Tom Waits).

    Our central Indiana gas has been in the 5,25 range.  Our state gas tax increased July 1, contributing to the current 4.99.

  115. 115.

    Eunicecycle

    @Geminid: Fetterman sent out a tweet that showed Oz had filmed an ad in his hime in New Jersey! I guess 5 or 6 years ago there was a magazine article with pictures of his NJ mansion. One picture was in a library with gold drapes, and Fetterman showed how the ad was most likely filmed in that library.

  118. 118.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Another Scott: One thing to understand about this ruling:  due to a lower court judgment, these rules were in place already during the April election.  WI Dems are already prepared and have done well with these rules in place.  Still a shitty and anti-democratic decision.

  119. 119.

    Mart

    Biden’s Freedom Medal picks just don’t measure up to Dear Leaders. TFG picked luminaries like Long Dead Elvis, Antonin Heads We Won Tails You Lose Scalia, Arthur Voodoo Economics Laffer, Rush Fucking Limbaugh, Devin Fucking Nunes, and Gym I See Nothing Jordan.

  121. 121.

    billcinsd

    @Matt McIrvin: NAIRU is garbage for anything useful. In particular, it has relatively wide prediction limits that it is useless as a tool for altering the economy

  123. 123.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @debbie: ​How much you wanna bet they’re both having GI-tract-reversal surgery…so they can do the GOP trick of talking through their asses & shitting through their mouths?

  124. 124.

    Stray Kat

    @Immanentize: Carter won election in 1976, took office in Jan. of ’77.

    Lost to Reagan in 1980, and Reagan took office in Jan. of ’81.

    A lot went on in those four years. OPEC, for one. You think gasoline prices have gone up lately?? I distinctly remember screaming, “I am NOT PAYING 50 cents a gallon for gas!!!” – to no one in particular at a service station, then starring at the pump, grumbling with my fists on my hips for 5 minutes before (relatively) calmly filling my tank.

    Still laughing at myself. ;-)

  125. 125.

    J R in WV

    I remember my Dad paying $0.19 for gas on a summer road trip, IIRC in NC? We were visiting Revolutionary and Civil War battle grounds. Dad said that the very low even back then prices were because of a gas-price war, two stations duking it out on opposite corners downtown in a little farm town.

    I have paid as much as $5 and change for hi-test, which our turbo-charged 4-cyl really prefers. By the same token last time I was in Tucson AZ I paid right around $1/gal with a discount card.

  126. 126.

    S Cerevisiae

    I just checked gas buddy and there is a 65 cent price range within 5 miles of me (Minneapolis). Costco is the cheapest at 4.35 and several at 4.59 and 4.69 but some are a lot higher.

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