Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
I wish good health to you, dear Ukrainians!
Today, I worked all day in the field – in the city of Dnipro and in the region, in Kryvy Rih. I was on the front lines of our defense in Dnipropetrovsk region. I listened to the reports of the commanders, thanked our boys and girls, who are defending the region, on behalf of all Ukrainians.
I awarded the Golden Star to the Hero of Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Oleh Hrudzevych – commander of the tank battalion. Thanks to his personal bravery, his unit got out of the encirclement without casualties and destroyed the Russian sabotage group in a battle. A very strong person, you can feel it.
I visited the famous Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipro to personally thank our special heroes – all the doctors and nurses who have been rescuing our wounded soldiers and civilians every day since February 24 and since 2014. They are extremely successful on their front lines and gave second birthdays, saved the lives of thousands of our people.
I presented state awards to our defenders who are recovering from injuries.
I am really very grateful for all the kind words I heard today in Dnipro, that I heard on the front line. Thank you, first of all.
Today, I addressed the Parliament of Slovenia. Every day and under any circumstances, we work as much as possible on the foreign policy front. And, by the way, this was already the twenty-fourth address to the parliaments of the EU countries and the first that was made near the front line. I hope that the three other EU countries will also feel that these appeals are not about politics, but about the protection of our common freedom, by the way, and therefore, we will come to the point that one day I will be able to say: all 27 parliaments of the European Union hear the struggle for freedom better than any Russian manipulations.
I also held all the necessary meetings with the leaders of Dnipropetrovsk region in general and Kryvy Rih district in particular – both military and civilian. It was about security, economy, social issues. Officials must do not just everything possible, but much more than even possible, to guarantee people a normal standard of living even in such wartime conditions.
I am returning to the capital of Ukraine.
Of course, I want to say two more things.
I congratulated Chief Commissar Zaluzhny on his birthday today. I wished him good health, I wished him and all of us the most important thing – victory. Thank you for your service!
And tomorrow, on July 9, and in fact already after sunset today, the Muslim community begins to celebrate Kurban Bayram. This is a special holiday that teaches sacrifice and guides people to do good deeds. I want to congratulate now all Muslims of Ukraine and the world and wish that the rule of peace is restored, and all kinds of evil always lose the sooner the better. The Crimean Tatar people especially expect this, and I believe that the year will come when we will welcome each other in a free Crimea.
Kurban Bayramınız Hayırlı ve mübarek olsun! Congratulations on the blessed holiday – Kurban Bayram!
Glory to Ukraine!
There’s not a lot of new operational information in President Zelenskyy’s address from this evening. However, that does not mean it is not important. I highlighted (highlit?) Kryvy Rih because that is President Zelenskyy’s home town. So this wasn’t just a battlefield circulation by a senior leader. It was a battlefield circulation by a senior leader to his home town, which is now part of the active theater of operations. But there’s more here. President Zelenskyy could have stayed in Kyiv, signed off on the awards, and sent them through the commanding general in the theater to those who received them. Instead he traveled from a comparatively safe place in Kyiv, what we would call a semi-permissive to permissive environment, to areas that are seeing active combat, what we would call a non-permissive environment. These actions are themselves a form of strategic communication. Strategic communication that is good for morale. Finally, just as he did for Easter, President Zelenksyy has brought attention to a holiday from a faith not his own. The holiday he’s noting, kurban bayrami, may be better known by its original Arabic name: Eid al Adha. Eid al Adha commemorates the Deity’s test of Abraham’s faith by asking him to sacrifice his son Ishmael. Exact same story as in Judaism, just Ishmael replaces his step brother Isaac in the the Quranic version. But he didn’t just reference it, he contextualized it within the struggles of the Crimean Tatars who are overwhelmingly Muslim.
Ukraine’s MOD posted an operational update for yesterday at some point after I did last night’s update. As they’ve not yet posted one for today, here’s yesterday’s update (emphasis mine):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on July 07, 2022
The one hundred thirty fourth (134) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
Glory to Ukraine! No changes in the condition, composition and nature of actions of units of the armed forces of the republic of belarus were noted in the Volyn and Polissya directions. There is still a threat of missile and bomb attacks from the territory of this country.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy, in order to demonstrate their presence, shelled the areas of Vovkivka, Kindrativka, and Myropillya of the Sumy region with artillery. In addition, it carried out airstrikes near Esmani and Myropillya.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy continues to concentrate efforts on holding positions and preventing the advancement of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine deep into the temporarily occupied territory. During the day, tanks, barrel and rocket artillery were used to shell settlements in the Kharkiv oblast along the contact line.
Our soldiers nullified all the enemy’s attempts to advance in the direction of Sosnivka. The assault was repulsed, and the occupiers retreated to their previously occupied positions.
In the east of our country, the enemy is still trying to establish complete control over the territory of the Luhansk obkast.
In the Slovyansk direction, the occupiers again unsuccessfully stormed Bohorodichne, trying to capture it completely. Our soldiers harshly suppressed this next attempt.
The enemy carries out fire damage with barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of the settlements of Sulyhivka, Chervone, Nikopol, Novopavlivka, Karnaukhivka, Adamivka, Krasnopillya, Bogorodychne, Mazanivka, Dibrivne and Dolyna. Attack and army aircraft were used for strikes near Dolyna.
In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy made unsuccessful attempts at assaults in the Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyansk directions.
The occupiers shelled the areas of Mayaki, Siversk, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Zolotarivka and Zvanivka settlements with barrel and jet artillery. An enemy airstrike was recorded in the Serebryanka area.
In the direction of Bakhmut, Ukrainian soldiers inflicted losses on the enemy when it tried to improve his tactical position near Vershyna and Berestove. The enemy retreated in panic.
The areas of the settlements of Vyimka, Ivanodar’ivka, Spirne, Berestove, Bilohorivka, Pokrovske, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Klynove, Vershina, Kodema, Mayorsk, and New York were shelled with barrel artillery and rocket jet systems. Enemy used army aviation near Shumy. It is fixed on the outskirts of the settlement of Spirne.
In the Avdiyivka, Kurakhivka, Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzia directions, mutual shelling from barrel and rocket artillery continues along the contact line.
The enemy attacked with attack aircraft near Kamianske.
The situation in the South Buh direction has not undergone significant changes. Enemy units continue to hold occupied positions and fire at the positions of units of our troops with available weapons.
The statements of the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation about the alleged death of Ukrainian soldiers who were cleaning and installing Ukrainian flags on Zmiiny Island are not true.
In the waters of the Black and Azov seas, the enemy keeps up to six carriers of high-precision weapons ready for use. The total number of sea-based cruise missiles of the “Caliber” type can be up to 40 units.
The enemy continues to suffer significant losses of personnel, weapons and military equipment on the territory of Ukraine. Thus, according to available information, the command of the Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is forced to withdraw units from the 35th separate motorized rifle brigade. Instead, he is trying to attract unmotivated units of the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade.
Forced mobilization of personnel in the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk region continues. The mobilized have weak training and unsatisfactory equipment with means of protection. At present, the current shortage of units of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is about 8,000 people.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:
And here’s their updated map for today:
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent analysis and updated map:
KRAMATORSK AXIS /1825 8 JULY / RU sources report a crossing has been made of the Donets River near the village of Bilohorivka. UKR reports their pontoon bridge is destroyed: stranded RU units on the south bank are vulnerable to destruction. pic.twitter.com/uy4FqruiIT
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 8, 2022
Based on this assessment, I expect the Ukrainians are on the hunt!
There was a DOD background briefing today. Here’s the transcript (emphasis mine):
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Great. Thank you. Happy to be with you today. I thought I’d offer a few framing remarks on our approach to Ukrainian security assistance before talking about the specifics that are important for today.
The United States first initiated a training program for Ukraine in 2015 — yes, 2015 — on helping Ukraine with its capacity to man, train, equip, deploy and sustain combat arms units. It is this background that’s important for understanding how early in the war, Ukraine was able to face a larger, more capable Russian force, able to stay nimble, empower subordinates, achieve commendable successes, already be trained on certain capabilities that the United States as well as other countries had provided — notably Javelins but not only Javelins — and therefore, Russia was walking into a battle back in February with a far more capable military than it expected and that it — it had frankly faced back in 2014.
And then early in the war, the surge of assistance from the United States and allies and partners ended up proving vital to supplement the training and capability Ukraine had built over those seven years in thwarting Russia’s multi-access offensive, which was aimed at overthrowing the legitimate government of Ukraine and that is evidenced in the fact that Kyiv was one of the major priority axes of attack.
And what we saw in Ukraine’s successful fighting off of the initial attack was that the years of training, equipping and advising, coupled with the surge of key capabilities such as 11,000 anti-armor and almost 1,500 anti-air weapons just in those first weeks, along with critical intelligence sharing, enabled the Ukrainian Armed Forces to successfully defend Kyiv and force the Russians to pull back and reassess their battlefield objectives and their approach.
And part of this — a main element of this that we’re kind of forgetting, I think, as the months have gone on, is that Russia’s large scale invasion also was thwarted by Ukraine’s very capable use of air defense capabilities, both those that Ukraine owned at the start of the battle — legacy Soviet capabilities — and the surge of assistance that the United States and allies immediately turned to in order to provide Ukraine with additional Soviet era legacy air defense systems, spare parts, repairs, more missiles.
And as a result, Ukraine denied Russia from gaining air superiority. And Russia — and Ukraine continues, to this day, to sustain that capability and to deny Russia air superiority, which has forced Russia to limit its operations to the battle we’re seeing today.
Now, coming to the battle today, as Russia’s focus shifted to the offensive in eastern Ukraine, our assistance shifted, as well, because it’s a different kind of battle, it’s a different kind of set of requirements.
At first, Ukraine relied upon, again, its Soviet legacy howitzers, artillery and armored capabilities, but the United States immediately moved to surge over 100 NATO standard 155 millimeter howitzers and over 260,000 155 millimeter artillery rounds from DoD stocks to support what was clear to our military leaders was going to be primarily an artillery battle, and that’s what you’re seeing play out.
Then, in the next couple of weeks, in the next stage that you will see in this package today, which is the focus on higher capability, precision, further range weapons, and in the case of the United States, that’s the provision of the HIMARS system, and the multiple launch rocket systems and the ammunition to enable Ukraine not just to conduct defenses with artillery, which are effective and important but not precision strike capabilities with insufficient range to be able to range Russian C2 nodes, logistics nodes.
And what we’ve seen now, as the United States surged HIMARS systems and the missiles for those systems, that Ukraine has now been successfully striking Russian locations in Ukraine, deeper behind the front lines, and disrupting Russia’s ability to conduct that artillery operation.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: So the President — the White House will be announcing the President has decided to provide another round of presidential drawdown authority the following capabilities: four high-mobility artillery rocket systems, HIMARS, and additional ammunition for those HIMARS. This is the capability I just referred to as being especially important and effective in assisting Ukraine and coping with the Russian artillery battle in the Donbas.
Three tactical vehicles to recover equipment, to support Ukrainian efforts to repair, resupply as this battle continues. 1,000 rounds of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition. This is a new type of 155 millimeter artillery ammunition. It has greater precision. It offers Ukraine precise capability for specific targets. It will save ammunition. It will be more effective due to the precision, so it’s a further evolution in our support for Ukraine in this battle in the Donbass.
In addition, the package will include demolition munitions, counter battery systems, and importantly spare parts and other equipment because it’s not just the new weapons systems but it’s the ability of Ukraine to repair, maintain, and sustain the effectiveness of the systems that we and allies and partners have been providing over the last few months. So that is what you’ll be hearing announced from the White House later this afternoon.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: All right, everybody. I’m going to open this up to questions. I’ll start with Lita Baldor from the Associated Press.
Q: Thanks a lot. Just one quick thing. What is the total funding value of this package? And then on the HIMARS, are we at about 12 that the U.S. has sent to Ukraine? Do you know of those, are these replacement for any of them that may have been destroyed? Is there any way to give us some sort of assessment about whether they still have all the others and if they’re all working in battle right now in Ukraine.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Great. Yes, thank you. Thanks. I failed to — and so, thank you for asking. I failed to lay out that this PDA package is assistance valued up to $400 million, so that answers I hope the first question. On the second question, yes. This will bring to a total of 12 HIMARS launchers units that the United States has provided to Ukraine, and the ones that have already been provided are fully accounted for, the Ukrainians are still using them in the fight. I know there’s been some Russian reports that they have destroyed Ukrainian HIMARS systems. That is not correct. The Ukrainians have those systems and are making use of them. And yes, with this package they will have 12.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: All right. Idrees from Reuters.
Q: Hey, thanks for — thanks for this. Two quick questions. You mentioned the 155 munitions and they’re a bit more advanced. Can you give a bit more details on what that is? And just more broadly, do you see Russia now having the momentum in the war or do you still sort of see the battle in terms of momentum?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, I can’t — other than describing the — this new set of 155 munitions, I can’t get into details for, you know, operational reasons — but simply to confirm that these are precision capable systems compatible with the 155 howitzers, so that’s what I can share on that.
On momentum, I mean, the Russians are making very, very incremental, limited, hard-fought, highly-costly progress in certain, select, small spaces in the Donbas. They’re way behind on their timelines. They’re far behind on their objectives. The Ukrainians are in localized places launching effective offensives. And now increasingly in the last week what we’ve seen is the ability of the Ukrainians to use these HIMAR systems to significantly disrupt the ability of the Russians to move forward even where they make that grinding, slow offensive.
So we don’t see this at all as, you know, Russia winning this battle. Certainly they’re not winning relevant — related to their initial objectives. They’ve been very much thwarted, but the fighting is hard, and the Ukrainians are having to fight hard to prevent the Russians from achieving their objectives, but they’re doing so effectively and we’re seeing that in the slowness of the Russian advance.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Barbara Starr, CNN.
Q: I wanted to just come back on thing and then ask you a follow up question if I may. It’s just on the munitions, the precision munitions. You describe it — maybe you could — maybe you can just clarify this one point. You describe it as a new set of munitions. Is it new even for the United States? In other words, is it something newly developed or is it new to supplying it to Ukraine? Can you tell us that?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure. Absolutely. That’s a very good question. That’s for the opportunity to clarify. No, this is — this is a capability the United States has. New refers to it’s a new pack — new element of our security assistance to the Ukraine.
Q: OK. And if I could, can you say — you just mentioned there are places where the Ukrainians are — I think the words you used are significantly disrupting Russia. Where is that happening?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I can’t give you specific locations — as other of my colleagues have said, we don’t want to help the Russians do their battle damage assessment or anything like that, but it is — these are locations behind the frontlines of where the Russian forces are concentrated, where you see every day the battle is going on. It is the lines behind C2 logistics nodes, so in the Donbas definitely and in the battle space just further back behind the front lines.
Q: And very quickly, is there any consideration being given to any kind of oversight or monitoring mechanism for the vast amount of weapons and value of the weapons that you’re transferring to ensure they don’t fall into the wrong hands? Is there anything you’re either doing to monitor that or considering monitoring that?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes. We absolutely track the — from the time we send the capabilities to Ukraine, deliver them to Ukraine, they move them to the battlefield. Our military leaders and experts and professionals are in communication with the Ukrainians to understand how they’re employing those capabilities, what their usage rate is, what their — I mean, it’s a really important element of deciding what goes into our next assistance package is to understand how they’re employing those capabilities, what their usage rate is, what their — I mean it’s a really important element of deciding what goes into our next assistance package is to understand how they’re employing them, at what rate they’re employing them and battlefield conditions they are employing them.
So we are tracking that very carefully and we are very mindful of our duties and obligations to maintain awareness of the capabilities we’re providing to Ukraine.
STAFF: Thanks, Barb. Jen Griffin, Fox News.
Q: Thanks, can you tell us — you mentioned at the start that you — that the training that was done starting in 2013 was a real changer when the Russians invaded. What are you doing at this moment in time in terms of training in Taiwan? Is there any training going on? Can you outline that for us?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Can you clarify, I don’t understand training in Taiwan.
Q: Yes, is there any U.S. military training taking place or any efforts to — again, as the lessons from Ukraine are being gleamed, is there any taking place right now?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: That is — it’s an interesting question. That is out of the scope of my responsibility and readiness to talk with you today. My area of responsibility at DoD focuses on — does not focus on that part of the world.
Q: Excuse me, I thought it was international security assistance.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No, that’s fine.
STAFF: Thanks, Tom. OK, so I’ve got both Joseph and Nadia from Al Arabiya. I’ll let you guys decide who’s going to ask the question.
Q: That’s a tough decision.
Q: OK, I can start just very quickly and maybe Joe has a different question. But thank you so much for giving us the opportunity. I just wanted to see if you can give us some assessment of where is the Russian intention militarily? In the beginning there was talks that they might extend and go to a Baltic state. Today, the Russian Foreign Minister has warned Lithuanian and the European Union that it could adapt harsh measures, as they call it, against them if they’re trying to do some good to and from Russian exclave as you know.
Do you see this as a serious threat militarily towards the Baltic states? And just give us what you think in terms of the assessment that actually it can go further than just Ukraine? Thank you so much.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure. Well I think it’s been very clear in President Putin’s statements what his objectives are in Ukraine. Which is the subjugation of Ukraine militarily and politically so that Ukraine is not an independent, sovereign country. The specific military objectives were, — as I said at the outset — to move to Kyiv, to overthrow the government and control it.
They’ve had to — I think the objective remains the same, which is to prevent the existence of a sovereign, independent Ukraine. It’s just the specific military objectives have shifted as they failed in that initial take on it and you know, I don’t think those political objective have changed, it’s the military means or operations have.
On Russia’s broader intentions, — I’d answer it in broader terms, that we take very seriously the threats that Russia poses to NATO allies and the NATO alliance, and that is why, at the Madrid Summit last week, the United States announced this set of significant additions to our posture and capability in Europe in order to contribute to an effective defense and deterrence against Russian threats against NATO allies, of which Lithuania is one.
So it’s precisely for that reason that President Biden made those decisions and the United States has made that commitment to our NATO allies.
Much, much more at the link!
As we’ve been covering and discussing, the Ukrainians are very successfully targeting Russian ammunition depots, as well as other facilities, in the areas of Ukraine the Russians are occupying. A lot of this is the result of the new NATO standard artillery systems, like the HIMARS, coming online with the Ukrainian military. But some of it is also partisan activity. The Kyiv Independent has the details:
t is an almost everyday occurrence in the Russian-occupied parts of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Russia’s ammunition depots blow up, with large fires erupting as tons of ordnance detonate for hours. Some of these incidents cause giant blasts with a radius of hundreds of meters.
Now that Ukraine has acquired advanced Western artillery and rocket systems, it has gradually begun a campaign to take out Russia’s key military infrastructure. Over the last four weeks, nearly 20 Russian ammunition depots in Russian-occupied Donbas and Ukraine’s south, including some of the largest, have been hit or completely destroyed.
As Russia continues with its slow but steady advance in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas, Ukraine’s military is working to undermine Russia’s overwhelming artillery power and disrupt its logistics deep in occupied territories.
Devastating strikes upon Russian command posts have become increasingly frequent since mid-June when Ukraine began using the first of four M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, provided by the U.S., nearly a week before their arrival in Ukraine was publicly announced.
On June 15, a massive explosion occurred near the city of Khrustalniy (formerly Krasniy Luch) in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Explosions continued for days. According to satellite images, the blasts created a destruction zone spanning some 500 meters around the epicenter. The site was one of Russia’s largest ammunition depots, built after Russian forces occupied the area in 2014. In the Azotniy neighborhood in the northeastern part of Donetsk where Russia established ammunition depots through the city, successful attacks have continued on an almost daily basis.
On July 2, Ukraine’s military published a video showing an enormous explosion at another large depot in the city of Popasna in Luhansk Oblast that was being used to supply Russian units near Bakhmut and to the south of the Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Two days later, another devastating blast destroyed a large depot in the city of Snizhne. Three more depots were also hit in Donetsk.
On July 5, another strike hit the Kamaz Center, a large truck repair shop that was being used as a Russian munition base. The Techsnab industrial base in the city of Makiivka was also destroyed on July 6, in which large amounts of stored munitions exploded. Missile strikes have also occurred in Ukraine’s occupied south. On June 14, Ukraine destroyed a depot in Nova Kakhovka, one of Russia’s key bases in Ukraine’s southern Kherson Oblast, occupied by Russia in the early days of the invasion. The same day, another large depot in occupied Kherson, near the city’s central railway station, was also hit.
Another attack on June 29 also severely damaged an ammunition depot near Izium in Kharkiv Oblast that was used by Russia’s 20th Combined Arms Army in its offensives in the region. And another strike on July 4, reportedly delivered by a HIMARS, destroyed one of four Russian military bases in Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a key Russian logistics center in Ukraine’s south.
Ukrainian strikes upon Russian facilities continue on a daily basis.
As a result, by July 7, Russia had lost most of its key ammunition depots, and many of its smaller depots in occupied Donbas. Notably, many key targets as much as 50-80 kilometers into Russian-controlled territory have been successfully destroyed.
This suggests that, along with Western-made rocket systems, Ukraine has also managed to improve its reconnaissance, situational awareness, and target indication, to the point of being able to identify targets even of medium importance deep in Russian-occupied areas.
Much, much more at the link!
Russian ammo depo hit in Shakhtarsk, Donetsk Oblast. Detonation has reportedly been lasting for five hours so far.
Video taken from the Telegram channel of Andriy Tsaplienko, Ukrainian military journalist pic.twitter.com/qfNHax4OkN
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) July 8, 2022
It appears Ukraine also struck the Topaz factory in Donetsk. https://t.co/5gfNzATwjQ pic.twitter.com/J8BynmVPzr
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 8, 2022
Yesterday, The Daily Beast reported on Putin’s plans given Russia’s success in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk (emphasis mine):
Russia’s success in Luhansk wasn’t an accident. While Russian forces have been bogged down by previous missteps in the war for months, Russian forces are getting better at executing their war plans and operating across teams. Putin has likely achieved effective coordination between two major fighting groups in the Donbas, according to the intelligence assessment.
“Unlike in previous phases of the war, Russia has probably achieved reasonably effective coordination between at least two Groupings of Forces, the Central Grouping likely commanded by General-Colonel Alexandr Lapin and the Southern Grouping probably under the recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin,” the assessment states.
That’s a world of difference from the previous four months of war, during which Russian forces haven’t coordinated well, have faltered in their logistics and planning, and have been actively trying to sabotage their own attack plans rather than fight like a well-oiled machine.
It’s a particularly alarming development given that Russia likely won’t stop in Luhansk. The current U.S. assessment is that Russia still maintains plans to take all of Ukraine, not just eastern Ukrainian territories, a U.S. ambassador told The Daily Beast.
Much more at the link!
The most amazingly frightening part of this war is Putin’s seeming inability to actually come to terms with reality. From the ever more bellicose statements and threats directed at the US, the Baltic states, Poland, Finland and Sweden, other EU and NATO member states, etc to the inability to actually accept the reality of what has happened over the past four months, nothing seems to get through Putin’s delusions and megalomania.
Last night commenter Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom asked two questions:
I actually have 2 questions, so take your pick.
First, what does the current political chaos in the UK mean for Ukraine. While it was obvious that BoJo was using Ukraine to burnish his reputation, the results for Ukraine were very, very helpful.
Second question is in regards to the (in)famous Crimean Bridge. It has to be in Ukrainian sights. The Russians certainly think so. They have & are increasing its defences.
To answer the first question, unless something really, really, really weird happens in Britain, I don’t see much changing in the UK regarding its Ukraine policy. Other than, perhaps, some of the public tone. For all of his faults – and that’s a lot of faults – Boris Johnson has been excellent on Ukraine. His Churchillian delusions of grandeur, which contributed to him being an absolutely terrible prime minister in regard to domestic affairs, have actually helped him to be excellent on Ukraine. But, he seems to be planning to stay on as caretaker prime minister for several more months. Provided that happens, then for the short term nothing is going to change at all. And, of course, he’s going to spend that time scheming to find away to actually unresign or be chosen to succeed himself as prime minister. I really am not sure who among the Tories would replace him. Labour’s current leader is Sir Keir Starmer, so should the current government actually fall, new elections are called, and Labour manages to take over, unless something weird happens, Starmer would become prime minister. I would not expect him to radically shift Britain’s Ukraine policy or strategy.
As to the second question: I would think so. I have no special insight, but the bridge is both a high priority theater strategic and tactical target, so I expect the Ukrainians have plans for it.
That’s enough for tonight.
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West of the Rockies
Thank you for yet another super-informative post. I hope your health is back to normal.
Jerzy Russian
I agree. As a practical matter, I am not sure what can be done without a lot more further bloodshed.
Ruckus
@Jerzy Russian:
Someone in Russia could man up and fix the situation. Of course that might have a rather limited success, if any at all, and it would likely, probably mean little change in direction, although it seems that this is Vlad’s personal war in his quest for complete supremacy. Which seems to be actually not happening anywhere near as planned.
Alison Rose
As always, I am simultaneously filled with admiration and terror whenever Zelenskyy visits the front lines or other areas that are far more precarious than Kyiv. But I imagine it must mean so much to the people fighting there–for him to actually come to them, be there in person, show them how much he respects their bravery by exhibiting his own.
Zelenskyy did an interview with Wolf Blitzer which was first (I think) aired today. Unsurprisingly, a lot of Blitzer’s questions were………….dumb, but he did ask at one point if Ukraine is hoping that Biden will visit, since so many other US politicians have. Zelenskyy indicated that they would really appreciate it if he did, but as far as I’ve seen there hasn’t been any talk of that here. I wonder if it might happen? I mean, FLOTUS went, and Pelosi, and Blinken, and effing McConnell and Graham…I get that obviously there are safety concerns regarding the president going, but it seems like it could be done. I think it would be good for him to do it.
I am exceedingly sorrynotsorry whenever I see videos of Ukraine blowing up russia’s shit.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Alison Rose
@Ruckus: I’ve often wondered if there isn’t one single person in russia who is not brainwashed and has the gumption to, let’s say, take out the trash, and would be willing to sacrifice themselves for the cause.
Ohio Mom
Adam, what ever happened to all the financial sanctions we imposed on Russia at the start of the war — are they having any effect, doesn’t seem that way to me. Was it all a PR stunt?
Apologies if you’ve already discussed this, some things go in one of my eyes and out the other without stopping between. I’ll read the answer tomorrow, I’m about to fall asleep.
West of the Rockies
@Alison Rose :
There were all those explosions deep in Russia a month or so ago (strategic military infrastructure sites)… I wonder if those were arranged by Russians against the goblin Putin.
West of the Rockies
@Ohio Mom:
Have I misheard? I was under the impression the effects of those financial penalties would really show up around September.
featheredsprite
Thank you, Adam. You are appreciated.
If Putin really is waiting for a big Republican win this year, he might be trying to run the clock out. And he wouldn’t retreat,
Rocks
@featheredsprite: If Putin was holding on for a big Republican win this November the Nazis on the Supreme Court just pulled the rug out from under him. Only fitting that they were installed by Trump, who never saw a deal he couldn’t screw up.
Carlo Graziani
Very amusing.
What this actually suggests is that one of the most valuable form of Western assistance is real-time tactical intelligence, very likely piped in to units acting on it by covertly embedded US Special Forces, possibly not on the front lines (since this is no longer a technological necessity), but certainly nearby, in a regional liaison capacity. Totally deniable, and nevertheless carrying on a proud, continuous tradition going back over half a century. And, at least, this time at the unambiguous invitation of the host country.
I look forward to postwar memoirs and other historical works for a light on this “reconnaissance”.
HumboldtBlue
(Off topic, but just…)
Anthony Barksdale has been named deputy mayor of public safety in Baltimore and that is just absolutely perfect.
debbie
@featheredsprite:
The Rethugs will screw Putin just like they’ve screwed any Americans who stand in their way. It’s just their nature. ♀️
guachi
I read a short article earlier on Friday about Ukraine’s current limitations and among them was the inability to effectively maneuver under heavy artillery fire, which will severely limit their ability to counterattack.
Medicine Man
I would certainly like to see Putin’s deluded ambitions get stuffed. What are the actual prospects for the Russians suffering real battlefield reversals? A few members of the UKR government have claimed that victory could be seen by the end of the year. It is just hard to see how that can happen at this moment.
Chetan Murthy
@debbie: Thing is, Putin only has to keep a few thousand GrOPer elected officials and appointees onside. He can do that with bribes & kompromat, when shared goals don’t work. I don’t think the GrOPers will screw him, b/c they’re too venal to manage it.
All that said, I *do* hope you’re right; it would allow me to breathe a sigh of relief for our civilization.
YY_Sima Qian
I don’t see how the Russian Army can take Odesa & Dnipro, let alone all of Ukraine. & w/ restricted access to microchips, its ability to replenish modern equipment & munitions will be constrained.
topclimber
@featheredsprite: It is certainly plausible that Putin takes a longer view of this war than we do, and has a different definition of success. By certain metrics, sad to say, he may be convinced he is winning. Take, for instance, his goal of preventing a successful democratic-capitalist country from functioning on his borders.
Thanks to the combat phase of the war that he may slowly but I doubt will completely lose, Ukraine is an economic basket case, its infrastructure suffering from megabillions worth of damage, upwards of one third of its population either gone to other countries or internally displaced. Until they are physically disgorged from the east (entirely), Russia has control of much of Ukraine’s industrial base. Their Black Sea blockade means most of Ukraine’s wheat cannot get to market, so agriculture doesn’t look so great either.
I expect Putin is not just waiting on our midterms but on where the EU stands following a possible winter or two of energy austerity.
We can hope the sanctions prove painful enough to make Putin’s long game untenable. The point is, he is willing to play that game. Are we?
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani:
I suspect it’s the using of small commercial drones
just 3 of numerous articles
BBC News – Ukraine sent dozens of ‘dronations’ to build army of drones
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-62048403
BBC News – Ukraine-Russia: Hidden tech war as Slovyansk battle looms
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62090791
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/war-enabling-not-war-winning-how-are-drones-affecting-the-ukraine-war?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Fair Economist
Thanks for the great compilations.
debbie
@Chetan Murthy:
I did see how Lindsay just issued support for Ukraine, which is why I felt this “plan” might not fly. Of course, whims change. If they do, we need to make sure he’s constantly flogged with this like a wet noodle for his obvious hypocrisy.
Subsole
@Alison Rose :
I have a hunch that the folks who voluntarily signed up for Putin’s Russia aren’t the kind of folks who would do something for the good of their country.
And they have been in charge for about two decades now. Imagine America after 20 years of semi-competent Trumpism.
Such a regime would actively cull the kind of people likely to do what you suggest, because that sort of patriotism (for lack of a better word) is a dire threat to the entire project.
@guachi: Is there an army that CAN maneuver effectively under artillery fire? I thought maneuvers in such situations were kind of limited to pressing yourself into the dirt and trying to fit as much of yourself up under your helmet as possible…
Major Major Major Major
Thanks Adam!
Subsole
@debbie: Lindsey also said he didn’t support Trump, way back once upon a time.
debbie
@Subsole:
Understood. Some of us have our whims…
Adam L. Silverman
@West of the Rockies: you are most welcome and I am.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: I agree with this. Whatever the Russians are doing to correct their badly misjudged pre-war force design by recruiting soldiers in the outer empire, their ability to generate the combat power that they would need for such projects is non-existent. We have a pretty clear picture of their manning, logistics, weapons, capabilities and limitations now. They are done.
I am still frustrated by how little is to be found on the subject of Ukrainian army manpower, and how well or poorly their force design has fared in the war. To my mind this is a black box of potentially great consequence.
It does seem clear to me that the war will continue, at least into fall/winter of this year. I do not believe that any US electoral event will bring any change whatsoever to US military support, because the administration does not require Congressional approval to draw down DOD weapons stocks for the purpose of supplying and supporting Ukraine. In principle, Ukrainian military strength could continue to grow in NATO-grade weapons at least through 2024. And if we’re talking about HIMARS in 2022, we could be talking about F15s and Abrams by 2023.
I also do still think that many people underestimate what will happen in Russia as a consequence of supply-chain jams in industrial and agricultural sectors as the weather chills. Modern cities housing millions of people are very vulnerable to disruptions of food, heat, electricity, water, sewage, medicine, etc. If such things really did happen all across Russia, the consequences would be unpredictable, but many possible outcomes are not on Putin’s favorites list.
The bottom line is that even without being able to pick a future, all the likely futures seem to have Russian progress more or less cresting at its high water mark now, with perhaps a few more morsels of Donbas, but no more. One or more big hammers is coming for them, I’m pretty sure. We just can’t see them clearly yet.
Adam L. Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: Again, there are no US Special Forces in Ukraine. There are no US forces in Ukraine.
Carlo Graziani
@kalakal: I think that attributing that spectacular success rate to drone-based spotting intelligence behind enemy lines strains credulity. Spy satellites are much better at that sort of thing, and a far more plausible explanation.
N M
Thanks for the post as always Adam!
The Pale Scot
BoJo has a big wedding reception planned at Chequers next month to celebrate his marriage during quarantine last year. After that last hit on #10’s tit to work a new angle, he’ll be good to go.
The Pale Scot
Ex. RU criminalized Russians sending supplies like batteries, optics, body armor, tactical gear to troops in Donbass.
The reason proposed by OSI is that it’s to prevent horizontal communicating that create political entities, too threatening to the regime.
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani: A couple of years ago everyone would have said the same about drones & AFVs. The Ukranians won’t have a ‘Rolls Royce’ system using bespoke systems such as the US would use but have instead had to improvise on the fly Commercial drones are cheap, easy to operate and are designed for recording and transmitting real time visual and locational imagery. Spy satellites are far more limited in that they’re in relatively fixed orbits with limited line of sight times.
kalakal
@kalakal: ETA
Only a couple of years ago some cheap drones were able to damage 5% of global oil refining capacity despite that capacity being defended by state of the art Western AA systems such as Patriot.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abqaiq%E2%80%93Khurais_attack
kalakal
@Ohio Mom: While it may seem trivial, it’s actually not a good sign for Putin’s ‘we don’t need anyone else’ schtick, but the Russian ersatz McDonalds can’t make fries due to a potato variety shortage
BBC News – Russia’s McDonald’s replacement runs low on fries
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62103506
Geminid
@kalakal: The Patriot system is unsuited to interception of low flying drones. The other systems the Saudis had to defend the facility may possibly have been state of the art in 2019, but they aren’t now. Several countries are working hard on drone defense. This is one reason that Saudi Arabia and Israel have been public about broader military cooperation particularly in the area of drone defense, despite their lack of formal diplomatic ties.
Systems like Israel’s “Drone Dome” will be an interim bridge to anti-drone energy weapons. These have been “just around the corner” for decades, but the U.S. Navy seems to plan on turning that corner this decade. New classes of destroyers and aircraft carriers have electrical generating capacities well beyond current uses, even taking into account 5″ rail guns and electromagnetic aircraft catapults. That generating capacity will power energy weapons for ship defense, I think.
Similar (but cheaper) land based systems will defend against drones. “Killer drones” will carry them too.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
Me too. Until more is known on that front, I advise against anyone making bold predictions about the course of the war over the next several months.
In principle, yes. However, if the Russian economy is in dire straits & possibly heading toward collapse in the coming months (as you have prognosticated several times), the Ukrainian economy is already there due to the invasion. My understanding is that, while Russia occupies just over 20% of the country, these regions account disproportionally for Ukraine’s total economic output, in terms of agriculture & heavy industries. (G&T, correct me I am wrong). Russian air & missile strikes have also severely damaged Ukrainian infrastructure & weapons industry base in the unoccupied areas. The Ukrainian economy will require strong support, & all the high tech weapons & platforms to the country will essentially have to come in the form of donations, since Ukraine is no shape to purchase them. As the donations are coming out of the national stocks of the NATO & allied countries, these stocks will need to be replenished, & further increased to take on the Russian threat.
At the same time, much of the world (including much of the West) is already in rough economic waters, & the rest are likely heading there soon, which will significantly constrain government finances. There are also competing needs for funding, including prioritizing the navy (in the case of the US) for possible military conflict w/ China, as well as the recently launched infrastructure initiatives from the EU & the G7 aimed at the Global South countries. Come winter, some of the EU nations will feel the particular squeeze of energy shortages (& high prices of those available). As much as it may feel outrageous & hard to countenance, I don’t think we can take Western solidarity for granted, as the war drags on. Some of the NATO/EU nations were pretty ambivalent to start w/.
It’s a race between what happens 1st, collapse of Russian capacity to wage war in Ukraine, or cracks developing in the Western alliance. It is probably the last straw that Putin is grasping for. However, the more Putin tries to push toward the Dnieper & the Carpathians, the longer the Western solidarity will last.
The Ukrainians will not capitulate, & war time economies function differently from peace time ones, anyway. As long as they have the weapons & the ammunition, the will will be there.
YY_Sima Qian
Another update from the Austrian Theresian Militärakademie, recapping in relative detail the progress of the Battle of Donbas, & some discussion of the potential scenarios for the immediate future.
An interest note from the briefing, the M777 towed howitzers that NATO nations have supplied in numbers to Ukraine have limitations in actual use. Being towed, it is not very mobile tactically, & thus vulnerable to Russian counter battery fire after shooting a round or two. If damaged, apparently the howitzers have to be withdrawn all the way to Poland for service & repairs. If true, this would really constrain the availability of these howitzers, & thus their utility. HIMARS is a tactical game changer due to its outranging the vast majority of Russian artillery, & its high accuracy at such ranges. However, Ukraine needs a lot more.
The briefing also estimates that the number of battalion tactical groups (or Ukrainian equivalents) at each side’s disposal in theater went from 93:81 in Russia’s favor at the start of the battle, to 108:60 now. While the numbers for the Ukrainian Army is plausible due to attrition, I have a hard time believing the Russian Army has not suffered equally grievous attrition.
Finally, at the end of the Briefing, the Austrian colonel broke from the clinical, detached & neutral countenance that he had studiously maintained, to memorialize a Ukrainian officer he had commanded on a KFOR mission last year. The officer was KIA last week.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam. It’s reassuring to have you agree that the British support for Ukraine will not falter, despite the political chaos.
As for the bridge… It’s days are numbered. Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine wants the Crimea back. That makes destroying that bridge a necessity.
Geminid
@Geminid: Energy weapons will be a minor feature of President Biden’s Middle East trip next week. The Times of Israel reports that Defense Minister Benny Gantz will conduct the President on a tour of the Palmachin airbase in central Israel that will incude a look at:
Defense Minister Gantz is thought to be the likely next Prime Minister if Benjamin Netanyahu cannot secure a Knesset majority in this fall’s Israeli elections. Current polling shows Netanyahu’s coalition falling short of the 61 Knesset members needed to form a government, as was the case in the four elections since 2019.
O. Felix Culpa
Thank you, Adam, for your Ukraine updates. I find them invaluable.
kalakal
@Geminid:
Absolutely, that was the real lesson of that attack, that a multi million air defense system, design for use against warplanes and ballistic missiles was helpless against a collection of sub $10,000 drones. There’s a big difference between Reapers/ Bayraktars and the sort of stuff being used right now by the UA which are things like converted DJI Maviks. So cheap you can swarm them, for both intel purposes and as lightweight loitering weapon systems. I can see Naval based energy weapons, Ships generate a lot of power, not so sure about landbased. Obviously drones that carry heavy weaponry like Reapers are on the scale of small aircraft and are much better targets for AA systems. I expect large scale drones to develop along the lines of the BAE Taranis
https://youtu.be/O8CTi4HR6wQ
YY_Sima Qian
@kalakal: Using consumer drones (DJI being a favorite) to drop grenades was pioneered by the Daesh in Iraq & Syria, & really caused a lot of problems for the Iraqi armed forces during the battle for Mosul, & against Assad’s forces throughout Syria. The Bayraktars came to prominence when Azerbaijani forces used them to great effect last year against Armenian forces armed w/ top line Russian equipment. The Bayraktar sized arms drones will not last long in high intensity conflict against an opponent w/ competent theater level integrated air defense, which the Russian were thought to possess before the invasion of Ukraine. However, the DJI sized drones, as well as the Switchblade types of loitering smart munitions, will be a nightmare tactically for all armies going forward. I don’t think there are good & efficient counters, yet. Both the Russians & the Ukrainians are using repurposed DJIs extensively for artillery spotting, if the abundance of videos on YouTube & Twitter are any indication,
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
One thing that I don’t see noted in computations of strength ratios between the two sides in barrels, or in launchers, or in projectiles, is a correction factor for accuracy.
Given the far superior accuracy of a HIMARS rocket to, say a Grad, one would necessarily have to reckon with the necessity of having to expend N Grad rockets to achieve the military effect of one HIMARS rocket, where N is a number between 10 and 100 (wild-assed guess based on the difference between a Russian artillery fire mission that flattens several acres and a HIMARS strike, one rocket per target).
A similar efficiency factor would exist for the platform: one HIMARS is the equivalent of M Grads in battle, again with M in the 10-100 range. Firing rate and range affects this factor as well. Of course the inverse of platform efficiency is platform vulnerability, since a single HIMARS destroyed would be equivalent to destroying M Grads.
The point is that I thing some of the platform-to-platform comparisons of artillery strength are neglecting these factors, and are probably giving a distorted picture of how the artillery duel is evolving.
kalakal
@YY_Sima Qian: Agree. Bayraktars are basically slow moving light aircraft. DJis more like powered Frisbees
It’s also a matter of cost, DJIs are cheap. Any system that could deal with them would also have to be cheap
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: What you raise is important. On the other side of the ledger, if damaged/broken down HIMARS need to be returned to NATO territory for service/repairs, as apparently is the case for the XM777s (& HIMARS are more complex, w/ more complex smart munitions), it will cap their availability, too. A lot fewer HIMARS systems have been donated (& will be donated) compared to the XM777s.
There are a lot of variables, many that will not be obvious to us laymen (some not even after they have been pointed out). Furthermore, it is not in Ukrainian or allied interest to make such vulnerabilities well known, beyond generalities.
Ohio Mom
@kalakal: Aren’t food shortages a proud Russian tradition?
There’s some satisfaction in knowing Russia has a potato shortage but I was looking to hear about shortages that would significantly slow down the Russian armed forces.
@West of the Rockies: September? Okay I guess. Hope the Ukrainians can hang on that long.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Certainly. However, one of the points that Mark Hertling wrote about recently in a Tweet sequence was that the frustrating delay in delivery of HIMARS and comparable NATO systems in the pipeline is that the platforms are not delivered stand-alone, but rater together with an eye-wateringly complex logistical and maintenance tail of parts and trained personnel, analogous to the team and infrastructure necessary to keep a high-performance fighter flying regular daily combat missions. Before the parts supply, shops, and Ukrainian-staffed technical maintenance/repair positions are fully available for each unit, the unit is not deployed, as such a deployment would be as wasteful as flying an F-35 from a grass airstrip far from any USAF mechanics..
So there’s a lot of up-front investment that goes into preventing mere wear-and-tear causing the loss of these units. They are too expensive for that. That’s not The American Way [insert wry emoji here].
kalakal
@Ohio Mom: We are talking about a potential vodka shortage here. I can think of nothing more likely to stop a Russian army in its tracks. More seriously I was putting it up as an example of sanctions beginning to hit Russia presumably for both military & civilians
Tony G
@Jerzy Russian: Hitler during the Battle of Stalingrad was not a man who was operating in a reasonable way to facts on the ground. It took more than two more years, and millions more dead, before he finally blew his brains out. Putin seems to be the same type of man.
Carlo Graziani
@kalakal: with respect to static target locations such as artillery ammo dumps, I am rather more skeptical of drone capability than you are, whereas spy satellite capabilities are well-understood.
Imagine taking cell-phone camera video from a few hundred feet up — 1000ft, say — of a battlefield with an 800km-long front which you want to probe to a depth of 50km (HIMARS rocket range is 80km, but you want to stand off a bit) along roads and towns. Take the speed of a drone, figure the footprint, and you wind up with rather a lot of footage that needs to be reviewed by humans or computers for likely targets, winnowed for false positives, etc. You need to repeat this process once a week or so.
This is a dumb, pain-in-the-ass way of doing what the National Reconnaissance Office has been doing for decades. It is perfectly straightforward to analyze traffic patterns of supply and dispersal from space, and it is a certainty that those ammo dumps stand out like Vegas Casinos. I believe that the Air Force also has Elint aircraft capable of doing analogous things with radar despite ground clutter, from orbits over the Black Sea, Romania, etc. After a dump is located, a secure call is placed, and…
“Drone intelligence” is, in my opinion, a convenient fig leaf that prevents the necessity of another feces-flinging diplomatic spat with Putin and Lavrov, although I’m sure the Russians aren’t fooled.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
From the US military briefing above (bold mine):
With this ammunition, it’s shoot one round, which will hit where it was aimed (high-value targets preferred), and scoot.
Civilian Ukrainians/partisans in occupied areas have been doing some of the spotting, probably since the war started, and even if not, the Russians assume that they are. Logistics nodes (thanks DOD briefer for the correct term) in particular don’t move much, or quickly, so such information doesn’t go stale quickly and would be confirmed anyway, with satellite images (either commercial or not-Russian military or both) and/or drones.
randal m sexton
@Carlo Graziani: I am imagining that drones are being used to launder the targeting intelligence supplied by US satellites, in a similar fashion to how the cracked enigma intelligence was laundered by the allies using reconnaissance aircraft and other stunts and tricks.
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani: I agree in part about the static targets far back from the front lines. I’m sure much of that information is coming from commercial satellites and possibly US assets such as Keyhole satellites & Global Hawk drones. However
this is where we disagree in part. I think a lot of the real-time tactical intelligence is coming from cheap commercial drones. Anything within about 40 miles of the front lines is visible. Cheap drones can operate at over 16,000 ft up, carry LIDAR packages accurate to 5cms( these are pretty short range) and some really sophisticated cameras and telemetry.
If they achieve nothing else they slow the Russians to a crawl. Anything that tries to move fast in the open in Eastern Ukraine is either committing suicide or is using up a ton of anti air assets
Military recon drones are in a different league all together
Another Scott
KyivIndependent has several very short announcements about lots of ambassadors being fired. Any thoughts on what’s going on there?
translate.google.com says:
Seems curious.
Cheers,
Scott.
way2blue
Adam. I’m on the west coast so I’m out of sync with when you post your updates.
That said, I’m wondering about reports that people living in newly occupied regions are being conscripted into the Russian military forces in some fashion. Is this true? If so, how can the Russians be sure they’re not handing weapons to partisans sympathic to Ukraine?