Good news out of Michigan, if you believe in the Polling Fairy:
Lansing — Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has leads over all five of her potential GOP challengers less than four months before Election Day, raising doubts about whether a Republican wave will make landfall in Michigan.
The (paywalled) article goes on to say that Whitmer leads her GOP rivals by between 9 and 15 points. That seems pretty solid. I don’t follow Michigan politics closely, but Whitmer is incredibly impressive from what I’ve observed from afar.
On the other hand, this Axios piece that dissects the recent NYT-Siena poll is…all over the place:
Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters, Axios’ Josh Kraushaar writes from a New York Times/Siena College poll.
Why it matters: We’re seeing a political realignment in real time.
Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights. Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.
What’s happening: House Republicans boast this year’s class of new candidates is the most diverse in history.
The NRCC notes that 29 of its 75 House targets have a Hispanic population over 15%. In the Times/Siena poll, Ds hold a 20-point advantage over Rs among white college-educated voters — but are statistically tied among Hispanics.
Hispanic voters backed Democrats by a nearly 50-point margin in the 2018 midterms. In the 2016 congressional elections, Dems lost white voters with a bachelor’s degree.
We know Dems lost ground with Hispanic voters in 2020, but if I’m understanding this analysis, there’s been a 50 point swing in four years (2018-2022)? I am skeptical.
I am also skeptical of the claim that Repubs are building a “multiracial coalition,” unless Axios means that in the same sense that the Proud Boys are a “multiracial organization.” Also, why are gun safety and abortion rights assumed to be “upscale” voter issues?
My impression is that the economic dislocation caused by the pandemic is one factor that led more working-class Hispanic voters to back Republicans in 2020 in states like Florida and Texas. Inflation may be playing that same role now.
I don’t fully understand this because Republicans have done exactly jack and shit to alleviate the economic impact on those populations, but it seems to be real. For example, DeSantis gets credit in Florida for opening everything back up early, even though lots more people died as a result. He also gets credit for a strong economy while Biden gets dinged for that very same economy, so it doesn’t make much sense.
Anyhoo, make of it what you will. Open thread.
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