Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

So many bastards, so little time.

“Joe Biden deserved better than he got from some folks in his own party.”

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

Let there be snark.

Found liable for massive fraud, is required to post a massive bond, gets a break, then files a *fraudulent* bond!

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Everybody saw this coming.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Let’s finish the job.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Books are my comfort food!

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

We’re not going back!

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War For Ukraine Day 139: The Ukrainians Have Successfully Targeted Another Russian General Officer, the Ukrainians Also Keep Blowing Up Ammo Dumps In Kherson

War For Ukraine Day 139: The Ukrainians Have Successfully Targeted Another Russian General Officer, the Ukrainians Also Keep Blowing Up Ammo Dumps In Kherson

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Here is President Zelenskyy’s address this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I would like to highlight one decision that looks like a technical one, but there is a lot of symbolism and meaningful political work behind it. Ukraine became an associate member of NATO’s special multilateral program on technological interoperability. To put it more simply, it is about Alliance’s standards. Now Ukraine not only implements NATO standards, but also can participate in the development of new standards.

The experience of our military, the capabilities of Ukrainian institutions, the IT potential of our country – all this will now be the Ukrainian contribution to the development of collective security in Europe.

And when does it happen? On the 139th day of a full-scale war, with which Russia planned to destroy us in a week. And the Ukrainian state not only survived, not only defends itself, but also develops and will help the development of its partners. Such success is worth noting.

Every day we receive and experience a lot of painful news. The war continues, Russian shelling does not stop for a single day. Today there were regular strikes at Mykolaiv – missiles, artillery. The occupiers once again hit Kharkiv and the communities of the region – Staryi Saltiv, Zolochiv, Bayrak and others. There are victims – wounded and killed. In Donbas, offensive attempts do not stop, the situation there does not get easier, and the losses do not get smaller. We must remember this. We must see this, draw attention to this.

And it should also be remembered that even in such conditions, the state takes steps forward – in cooperation with partners – in institutional development. And, of course, on the frontline.

The occupiers have already felt very well what modern artillery is, and they will not have a safe rear anywhere on our land, which they occupied. They have felt that the operations of our reconnaissance officers to protect their Homeland are much more powerful than any of their “special operations”. Russian soldiers – and we know this from interceptions of their conversations – are truly afraid of our Armed Forces.

139 days of such a war, almost 20 weeks… The so-called second army of the world is afraid of Ukrainians and is able to do something only on the basis of bottomless stocks of old Soviet weapons.

They no longer have strategic strength, character, or understanding of what they are doing here on our land. They also don’t have even an iota of courage to admit defeat and withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory.

Today in Kyiv, I held talks with Mariusz Błaszczak, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of Poland. And he brought us “Krabs” – those that will powerfully feed our enemy with fire.

Of course, the key topic of our negotiations was further defense cooperation. But it is important not only what we talked about, but also how we talked. With absolute confidence in the Ukrainian future. In the Ukrainian European future.

The same goes for all my other negotiations. It is always felt.

A really difficult road is ahead. Unfortunately, it is impossible to do otherwise when you are protecting your home from a terrorist assault. But it is also clear that what lies ahead is the success of our state. Ukraine will be able to defend itself. Ukraine will be able to rebuild itself. Ukraine will be able to fulfill all its foreign policy goals.

When millions of people work sincerely for this – each and every one at their own level – the result will be inevitable.

And you know, for some reason I rarely thanked ordinary people who work in Ukraine. Who stay here no matter what. Who do their job every day. With faith in Ukraine, with faith in victory. Now I want to thank you all. Thank you for having you. Thank you for being with Ukraine.

In the evening, as always, I signed the decree awarding our heroes. 156 warriors were awarded state awards. 56 of them – posthumously.

Eternal glory to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine!

Eternal glory to all those who fight for the future of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

I want to take a moment and focus on something from President Zelenskyy’s address. Specifically, this part:

Every day we receive and experience a lot of painful news. The war continues, Russian shelling does not stop for a single day. Today there were regular strikes at Mykolaiv – missiles, artillery. The occupiers once again hit Kharkiv and the communities of the region – Staryi Saltiv, Zolochiv, Bayrak and others. There are victims – wounded and killed. In Donbas, offensive attempts do not stop, the situation there does not get easier, and the losses do not get smaller. We must remember this. We must see this, draw attention to this.

There has been a lot of discussion on nat-sec, mil, and mil-vet social media, especially Twitter, that Russia has once again culminated and is entering a strategic pause to consolidate, regroup, and prepare for whatever it is Putin is going to do next in his re-invasion of Ukraine. Apparently a lot of this is being driven by a recent report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that was published last week. As I’ve indicated before, I’m not a big fan of ISW and there’s no need to take space and go back over that here, but in this case I think they’ve simply made a category error. Or, perhaps, a conceptualization error. Given the nature of the re-invasion, which has combined a lot of unsuccessful Russian land warfare, ineffective applications of Air Power that has failed to establish air supremacy over Ukraine, and very successful use of artillery and aviation based short, medium, and long range fires, Russia is really attempting three different campaigns in its Ukrainian re-invasion at once rather than a coordinated campaign that includes Air Power and Land Power, including fires.

Normally, we’d expect to see a lot better coordination between the use of Air Power and the use of Land Power, including what we call Joint Fires, but that really hasn’t happened with Russia’s re-invasion. Rather we see a disjointed air campaign, a dysfunctional and largely ineffective ground campaign, and a very effective use of artillery and aviation based fires to just pound everything within reach of the guns and the planes into dust. As a result, why we may be seeing a slowdown in what was the pocket/salient in Donetsk as the Russians try to work out how much farther forward they can push with the troops and the equipment they have available, we are most definitely not seeing any slowdown at all in the use of fires to just pound the Ukrainians wherever the guns can reach. And that’s the reality that President Zelenskyy is describing. That because of Russian uses of artillery and aviation based fires there is no let up, there is no pause, the war simply grinds on.

There was no operational update today from Ukraine’s MOD. Nor was their a DOD backgrounder.

Here is today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:

Here’s their updated macro level map for today:

And here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment and updated map of the battle for Kherson from yesterday:

As we’ve been following, Ukraine’s Southern Command has been increasing its operational tempo as part of the counteroffensive to push Russia out of Kherson Oblast. This includes using its new artillery to target both ammo depots and operational headquarters.

We now have confirmation of the kills:

A general and five Russian military officers were killed in a Ukrainian strike on Russian headquarters using the U.S.-supplied M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARs), according to Serhiy Bratchuk, a representative of the Odesa regional military administration.

“After a strike by HIMARS on the headquarters in the Kherson region, Major General [Artyom] Nasbulin, the head of the 22nd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 73954, Simferopol), was killed. Colonel Kens, whose death we announced yesterday, died there as well. And apart from him, the commander of the 20th motorized rifle division (military unit 22220, Volgograd) Colonel Andrei Gorobyets, the head of the operational department of the headquarters of the 20th MRD, Colonel Koval, the head of artillery of the 20th MRD, Colonel Gordeev. In total more than 150 died, including 5 officers,” Bratchuk said in a statement posted on Telegram.

Russian-installed authorities in the occupied Nova Kakhovka confirmed a Ukrainian strike on the area but made no mention of the Russian general and officers killed, claiming instead that Ukrainian forces had used “American HIMARS” to strike a warehouse storing a chemical compound that caused a massive explosion.

Russia’s RIA Novosti, citing local Kremlin-backed authorities, said at least five people were killed, seven were missing, and up to 80 were injured.

Much more at the link.

The Ukrainians have also been targeting the Russian ammo depots in Kherson, just as they have in Donetsk.

Part of the reason that Ukraine has suddenly become very successful is that the Russians don’t have a defense against the HIMARS. Because, like everything else in Russia, lots of people were skimming the contracts to create one while telling their superiors that everything was fine.

The Ukrainians are also continuing their partisan campaign against Russian occupation officials and collaborators. Al Jazeera has the details:

The Russian-appointed administrator of a small town in the Russian-occupied east of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region has been killed by a car bomb presumed to be the work of Ukrainian saboteurs, the regional occupation authorities have said.

The pro-Moscow military-civilian administration said Yevgeny Yunakov, chief administrator of Velikyi Burluk, had been killed by a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group, Russia’s TASS news agency reported on Monday.

More at the link.

There has been some discussion about what we know or don’t know about Ukrainian force structure after four months of war. And the answer is not much because the Ukrainians have done a good job locking down how they’ve been organizing, reorganizing, and especially recruiting since the re-invasion began. This is excellent Operational and Informational Security. What I did note yesterday is we’re now getting reporting from reliable Ukrainian news media sources, both with The Kyiv Independent, on Ukraine’s military losses to date:

We also have some news about backfilling and topping up Ukraine’s Air Force. From The Drive‘s The Warzone:

In a debate aired on national television, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced that the Czech Air Force would soon be carrying out patrol and air policing duties from within Slovakia’s airspace. The proposed partnership between the neighboring NATO countries could kick start the transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, which has been in the works since the early days of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.

Fiala disclosed the details of the agreement on July 3, stating that beginning in September, the country would deploy SAAB JAS-39C Gripen fighters to conduct air-defense operations in Slovakian skies. Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger was also present for the discussion and went on to add that the budding agreement may last for up to a year but is still in the process of being negotiated. The most noteworthy outcomes, though, could be the chance to streamline Slovakia’s pending delivery of Lockheed Martin-made F-16 Fighting Falcons as well as the opportunity to donate the Slovakian Air Force’s remaining MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets to Ukraine.

Slovakia has long been in the process of ending the country’s dependence on its fleet of Cold War-era MiG-29 fighter jets. The aircraft first entered service in 1982, making it so the MiG-29’s Soviet Union origins have prompted Slovakia to preserve at least some level of relations with Russia in order to maintain the fleet and its weapon systems. In an effort to both cut those lingering ties and upgrade the country’s fighters, Slovakia has since largely grounded its fleet of MiG-29s in preparation for its 2018 order of 14 F-16 Block 70 aircraft to be delivered.

The Slovakian MiG-29 fleet includes roughly 11 aircraft — a mix of MiG-29AS single-seaters and MiG-29UBS two-seaters. The aircraft received upgrades that made them NATO compliant, including the installation of special radios and Identification Friend-or-Foe (IFF) equipment, as well as a multi-function display, among other enhancements, during the mid-2000s.

Much more at the link!

I’ve seen reporting on a few sites that this is a done deal and also that Bulgaria is going to get on board and provide their MiGs to Ukraine as well. I’ve seen no confirmation from any legitimate source, so this is all something to watch and I’ll update when I see things confirmed by reputable reporters.

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

And a video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Інформацію отримав, передаю підписникам!🤫 Озвучка: @by Duck #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ оригинальный звук – Patron_official

The caption translates as:

I received the information, I am passing it on to my followers! Voiceover: @by Duck #pespatron #patrondsns #SlavaUkraine original sound – Patron_official

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

67Comments

  1. 1.

    zhena gogolia

    There’s a lot more to the audio of that tiktok. Wish I understood it. I think the little dog is chatting him up at the end, telling him he’s the coolest dog.

    did you find the stray dog?

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    Adam, I always appreciate your take on the situation on the ground, as it were, because for some reason, to me it feels like most of the Western, or at least US, news media is treating Ukraine vis-a-vis russia the same way they do Democrats vis-a-vis the GOP — disarray! disaster! it’s all over, give up, can’t win, doom and gloom, ad infinitum. It’s not that I want a Pollyanna gloss over everything, but I want reality not filtered through a baffling bias toward political tyranny. So I very much appreciate coming to these updates and getting knowledge and honesty with support for the right side.

    Is there any way we can get some wizard to magic up about 10000 more HIMARS right there on the frontlines? I don’t usually like seeing things get all blowed up but I definitely like when Ukrainians make russian things get all blowed up.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    frosty

    @Alison Rose : From what I read from Adam and Kos, Ukraine doesn’t need 10,000 more HIMARS. A dozen will do. What they do need is 10,000 more pods filled with 6 rockets each. At what, about $800,000 per pod?

  4. 4.

    coin operated

    Adding to the long list of voices saying “Thank you, Adam”

    Russian C400 anti-aircraft defense systems aren’t able to intercept HIMARS rockets – which Almaz-Antey corporation promised and charged billions for.

    After reading this, I’m saying “Give Ukraine ALL THE DAMN HIMARS!!!”

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    @zhena gogolia: It’s pretty funny. The gag is about the little guy giving information – so when he sticks his nose into Patron’s butt, Patron says “what are you, blind, not there, in my ear.” He’s praising Patron at the end, saying you’ll be a legend, not just a dog.

  8. 8.

    Dan B

    I hope Ukraine can retake Kherson.  It seems as though it would be a strategic coup to prevent Russia from moving on Odessa.

  9. 9.

    Alison Rose

    @frosty: If I had pre-Twitter-craptastrophe Musk money, they’d be getting every damn thing they ask for, and then some.

    ETA: Even current Musk money, since that fucker has more than God

  10. 10.

    zhena gogolia

    @Gin & Tonic: Okay, thanks. I got confused — I kind of got the beginning (although not the butt joke), but then it seemed like a flirtation at the end.

  11. 11.

    Martin

    @frosty: I don’t think we’re even giving them the good rockets. I think we’re just sending them the outdated stuff.

  12. 12.

    ksmiami

    @Gin & Tonic: I want Adam’s opinion on how we can dislodge the Russian black sea force… The blockade is illegal and a war crime, not to mention a crime against humanity.

    Certainly, we can tell Putin that we will sink a ship everyday he doesn’t move the fleet.  And no, I am not afraid of him ratcheting up – he wants to live and war with NATO would mean death – for him.

  13. 13.

    oldster

    I like it when we help the Ukrainians to blow up the Russian ammo dumps.

    I like it when we help the Ukrainians to blow up the Russian generals.

    I will like it most of all when the Russians go back to Russia and leave Ukraine alone. I hope I will be able to visit Kyiv some day.

  14. 14.

    trollhattan

    @coin operated:

    Israel has declined to sell/give Iron Dome or allow other countries to transfer Iron Dome to Ukraine, and I wonder if Russia has been asking for them as well? NB I have no idea if that system would be effective against HIMARS, but this sure is a pants-down period for Vlad & Co.

    The various national entanglements I’ve learned of from this war would fill a large notebook. With each I become more confused.

    To Adam and the Jackaltariat, is Ukraine’s recently stated intention to concentrate on a southern counteroffensive against Russia a feint to trick them into transferring forces there, or an openly strategic policy? Certainly seems important to free as much of their coast as they can from the invaders.

  16. 16.

    Gin & Tonic

    @ksmiami: Well, Türkiye holds a veto over transit into the Black Sea, so there are logistical issues there, even if there was the will on the part of the US – which there isn’t. For now, the best that can be done is high-quality land-based systems to hit their ships at sea (isn’t there a British system that’s good at that?)

  17. 17.

    Gin & Tonic

    I don’t see it in Adam’s listings, but there are also reports that a Colonel Aleksei Avramchenko was KIA on 9 July. What’s interesting about him was that he was a UA Army officer in Crimea and switched sides after the annexation in 2014.

    Good riddance.

  18. 18.

    Mallard Filmore

    The pro-Moscow military-civilian administration said Yevgeny Yunakov, chief administrator of Velikyi Burluk, had been killed by a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group, Russia’s TASS news agency reported on Monday.

    Can it be assumed that anyone occupying the seat of chief administrator of a town is a scum (worth killing), especially a pro-Moscow type, as opposed to a plain bureaucrat keeping civil order?

  19. 19.

    Tony G

    I read somewhere recently that many Russian units are using unencrypted civilian cell phones for tactical communications because the secure means of communication (if they ever existed) have been stolen and sold as part of the rampant corruption in Russia.  If that’s true, that might explain why being a Russian general is such a hazardous job.  (It would be ironic if the Russian generals are dying because of their own corruption.)

  21. 21.

    Ken

    @Alison Rose : I really can’t see anything good coming out of privately-financed wars, even crowdsourced ones. It’s bad enough with the oligarchs pressuring governments to start them.

    Though maybe if they also had to pay for them….

  22. 22.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Alison Rose : 

    to me it feels like most of the Western, or at least US, news media is treating Ukraine vis-a-vis russia the same way they do Democrats vis-a-vis the GOP — disarray! disaster! it’s all over, give up, can’t win, doom and gloom, ad infinitum.

    The YouTube algorithms are feeding me mostly the opposite. Too much good news. I have to come here to tamp down my expectations.

    Play a few videos from these YouTube channels and YT will suggest all sorts of feel good vids:
    US Daily Brief
    TVP World
    CRUX (maybe ???)
    Denys Davydov
    The Daily Unseen 2
    Forces News

  25. 25.

    Grey Michael

    Thanks for keeping these updates going Adam.
    I believe the C-400 air defense system in the article quoted above is also known as the S-400 “Triumf”.
    There hasn’t been much good news of late where Ukraine is concerned,so I’ll take it where I can get it.

    If nothing else,the failure of the vaunted S-400 in the field, is at least something good. Putin’s war machine being repeatedly, publicly pantsed could be the gift that keeps on giving, even if the sanctions end. Russia is a heavy player in the arms export market, hopefully their sales will diminish greatly.
    I know the Russian officers being killed is thought of as a good thing too; but to me, after awhile it’ll be the same as the endless reports of Al-Queda’s number 2 or IS number 2  being killed, and then the war grinds on.
    I’m still hoping for a late summer offensive to take back Kherson and Crimea at the least.

  27. 27.

    Argiope

    @oldster: ​
      I imagine many of us have new tourism goals in Ukraine after all of this. The scale of sheer unnecessary destruction they’ve had to deal with is just maddening, and I look forward to the day when we can help them begin to rebuild. May it be soon.

    Thanks, Adam, this is my daily must-read. I’m also glad when you take breaks to rescue dogs and handle your plumbing. Hope that mischief is now all managed at a lower cost than, say, a HIMARS.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I don’t think the S400 system was ever designed to defend against rockets. They are designed to take out aircraft, cruise missiles & ballistic missiles. Using them against cheap HIMARS rockets is a gross mis-application of resources, the SAM missiles are likely to be much more expensive than the rockets, & not suited for the use.

    What this shows is that even the very limited number of HIMARS systems in Ukrainian hands is having a substantial impact at the operation level (putting rear area ammo dumps, service depots & HQs at risk will do it). What this also shows is that the Russian Army got comfortable w/ doing certain things w/o the threat of the a system of the range & accuracy of HIMARS, even w/o the 150 km ranged versions of munitions, & is now scrambling to adjust to the presence of such systems. Using theater/strategic level SAM assets such as the S400 as makeshift “Iron Domes” is an act of desperation. We will see how the Russian Army adjust (we know they are capable of making adjustment). They will certainly have to disperse any large service depots & ammo dumps w/in the range of HIMARS into smaller facilities (which would complicate the logistics, which the Russian Army does not seem very good at), & better disguise their HQs. If the RuAF had air superiority, they could go on the hunt for the limited number of HIMARS systems, but the RuAF has performed well below pre-war expectations.

    However, I would caution against expecting HIMARS or any other weapon system to be war winning wunderwaffe. Warfare, as everything in life, is all about adjusting to the unexpected. The side that is better at that will be at a distinct advantage.

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The Pantsir-S1 was designed to provide point air defence of military, industrial and administrative installations against aircraft, helicopters, precision munitions, cruise missiles and dragged UAVs; and to provide additional protection to air defence units against enemy air attacks employing precision munitions, especially at low to extremely low altitudes.[4][5]

  31. 31.

    Andrya

    @ksmiami: I agree 100%.  US Naval escorts (including anti-submarine capability) for shipping out of Odessa.  I don’t think there is any other way to end this war.

    And it doesn’t hurt that Beijing will be watching…

  35. 35.

    Andrya

    @Gin & Tonic: I know the will is lacking and it drives me mad.  However, my understanding is that russia has 3 submarines in the Black Sea, and that Ukraine has nothing that can handle a submarine.  Three submarines can sink the Ukrainian economy indefinitely.  Am I missing something?

  36. 36.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @trollhattan: Iron Dome would not be effective for the Ukrainians in defending against Russian fires. It most certainly wouldn’t be effective for the Russians against the HIMARS.

  38. 38.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Mallard Filmore: The Ukrainians are doing well, lunching well above their weight class, but this isn’t going to be easy and it isn’t going to be fast. And, of course, the Russians get a vote as they say.

  39. 39.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Argiope: Plumbing is functional, but still needs the attention of a professional. My plumber is coming tomorrow. Unfortunately I have no idea what happened to the lost dog.

  41. 41.

    Alison Rose

    @Ken: I am obviously not in any position now or any possible version of the future to do this. And typically I would agree with you, but in this case…I would not tell anyone with piles of money not to throw it all at Ukraine. Not sorry.

  43. 43.

    Carlo Graziani

    There has been some discussion about what we know or don’t know about Ukrainian force structure after four months of war. And the answer is not much because the Ukrainians have done a good job locking down how they’ve been organizing, reorganizing, and especially recruiting since the re-invasion began. This is excellent Operational and Informational Security.

    That’s kind of where I’ve been landing too. The UA may be taking advantage of the fact that everyone — East and West — is underestimating their manpower resources. That is really the only thing that makes sense.

    They don’t have to “recruit”. They just have to call up the class of 2020 of their active reserve. Or else adopt some other rational schedule that brings out fully-trained officers and privates and NCOs from the woodwork of their age 20-55 reserve. The whole “train up the fledgling kids” thing is the bullshit that the Russians have to do.

    But the UA threw Territorials into the fight in Sieverodonietsk. Their potential force of reservists hasn’t materialized yet. Where is it?

    I still think there’s a surprise sting ahead.

  44. 44.

    Redshift

    @Gin & Tonic: My reaction the news about Putin offering Russian passports to all Ukrainians was similar to when we started allowing snake license plates – it’s nice when the collaborators voluntarily label themselves.

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    The UA’s “Territorials” are similar in many respects to Canada’s Militia Regiments. Part time local soldiers. Under equipped, but they know the ground. They live there, they train there.

  48. 48.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Yep. Mirrors my thoughts. You can’t conjure up experienced NCOs and Officers. That pretty much takes trial by fire (literally) to weed out the culls.

    True story. Infantry in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Our platoon got a new lieutenant fresh out of West Point. On patrol and our point men spotted some Dinks  down close to a blue line (watercourse on a map) and the LT wanted to charge down the hill. We all just hunkered down and waited for Top (First Sergeant) to explain the birds and the bees to the FNG. So we called in some artillery before carefully exploring. I won’t go in to this any further except we went in CAREFULLY, not all Gungho, and did not lose a single person.

  50. 50.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L. Silverman: The Wikipedia page on the armed forces of the Ukraine cites a figure of 900,000 reservists, added to 196,000 active personnel, and sources those figures to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Obviously, if all those 1.1 million personnel were armed, trained, fit, and active, the Russians would be in trouble already.

    The entire reserve cannot possibly have been activated at the outset of the war. Any sensible plan for bringing it on-line would obviously echelon it to match requirements and available equipment. It’s a huge pool of personnel, not an afterthought. In my opinion, you are not taking it seriously enough.

  52. 52.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: I’m not saying the entire reserve was activated. I’m saying reservists we’re mobilized and have been fighting since the start of the re-invasion.

  54. 54.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Grumpy Old Railroader: This is an excellent comment and you make an important important point with it. I realize that old habits die hard, especially when they originate in combat, but I’d appreciate it if going forward you’d endeavor to not refer to the Vietnamese using slang that has been inappropriately outdated for going on 50 years.

    Thanks in advance!

  55. 55.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: No worries. Frankly, as you’ve noted, and it’s clearly frustrating you, we really have no idea how many are mobilized and how they’ve been integrated into the Ukrainian military. My understanding is a significant number actually volunteered for the Territorial Defense before they could be mobilized so they could fight in and near their homes to protect them, their families, and friends on a more local level.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: That’s correct, although the Pantsirs seem not to have offered much protection for Russian field units & static installations against Ukrainian drone strikes or even air strikes. Probably because the Russian air defense systems are in fact not well integrated at the tactical & theater level.

    Russia was always assumed to possess a formidable integrated air defense system for protection of its territorial air space, at least on paper.

  57. 57.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Grey Michael: I would not read too much into the S-400’s effectiveness, or lack thereof, against incoming rockets. The Patriot missile system (or any other equivalent around the world) probably would not do any better. That is not the system’s job.

    However, between using the S-400s against rockets, lobbing S-300 SAMs at ground targets, & levying prisoners w/ military service experience, the Russian Army must be scraping the bottom of the barrel, at least in certain aspects.

  58. 58.

    bjacques

    Thanks yet again, Adam. Checking in here every morning and browsing the GOS for footage of Russian smoking accidents.

    Regarding the latest doom-and-gloom posts about Iran selling drones to Russia, what time scale are they looking at for training and deployment, and are we feeding Ukraine information on their capabilities and countermeasures (if any)? And might Russian jamming of GPS be something of an own goal here?

    EDIT:

    and seeing as Hulyaipolye (sp?) os back in liberated territory, and it being Nestor Makhno’s hometown, I’m reminded of how he and Petlyura and others held off the Austria-Hungarians, the Whites and the Red Army until being betrayed.

  61. 61.

    Geminid

     

     

    @trollhattan: As Dr. Silverman says, Iron Dome would not be effective against HIMARS. The Israeli system basically defends against slower unguided rockets like the ones Palestinian forces lob from Gaza. The Iron Domes advantage is that it’s radar distinguishes between rockets that will hit empty areas from those headed for population centers, and directs interceptors at the latter.

    Israel will not be shipping Iron Dome batteries anywhere. While it fairly quiet there right now, another war with Gaza can happen with little notice. And in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah controls around 130,000 rockets, according to many sources including Al Jazeera. Iran provided these rockets, and if war breaks out between Israel and Iran, the Iron Dome systems Israel has will be insufficient, but they’ll at least cut down losses.

    One item on President Biden’s agenda today is a brief show-and-tell on the Iron Dome system, staged at Ben Gurian airport.. Israelis will also present the Iron Beam system, which integrates an energy weapon with Iron Dome tracking. Iron Beam is sort of operational in that it has shot down target drones. Future versions are to be mounted on aircraft.

  63. 63.

    Geminid

    @bjacques: I don’t think Iran’s provision of drones to Russia is a matter of doom and gloom regarding this war. It may be significant as an example of how these two “frenemies” are drawing closer in response to common enemies.

    On a related note: Putin, Erdogan and Iranian President Raisi will meet in Teheran soon. The occasion is another round of the “Astyana(sp?)” talks regarding Syria. Russia and Iran are Syrian President Assad’s biggest supporters, while Turkish President Erdogan opposes Assad. Reports are that Putin and Erdogan will met privately also. That’s a meeting I would like to eavesdrop on.

  64. 64.

    Carlo Graziani

    Is there an open-source resource for tracking movements of Russian army units along roads in Ukraine?

    Suppose I were interested in reinforcements moving from Melitopol towards Kherson, do I have a good way to find them, day-by-day?

  65. 65.

    way2blue

    As a mom with sons the same age as many of the Ukrainian soldiers—when I see video clips of them firing the HIMARS—I hope they’re wearing ear protection.  Can’t tell though…

  66. 66.

    way2blue

    @Argiope: Maybe ‘working holidays’ for tourists where we spend a couple weeks helping clean up & restore the public spaces.  Staff field kitchens…

  67. 67.

    eachother

    Thanks Adam L. Silverman.
    Thank you commenters.
    Sad and awful the russians are doing this to Ukraine.
    A russian high ranking officer killed is a kick in putin’s a**.
    Time for a couple more black eyes. Swollen shut black eyes.
    Oil storage, weapon depots. Perhaps another flagship?  Something with ‘onion’ domes in enemy territory?

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