Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I signed a decree awarding the Order of Merit of the 1st degree to Maryna Viazovska, a Ukrainian mathematician who became a laureate of the Fields Medal this year.
This is a very important and prestigious award – it is called the Nobel Prize in Mathematics.
Ukrainian Mrs. Viazovska became the second woman in the entire history of the award since 1936 to win this medal. She managed to solve the problem of packing spheres in eight-dimensional space. As scientists note, Maryna Viazovska offered very powerful ideas and helped solve related problems.
Today I want to thank Mrs. Maryna. Not only for her work, for a very powerful mathematical result, but also for the fact that she helps all of us, all Ukrainians, protect our freedom and independence. In particular, during the ceremony of awarding the Fields Medal at the International Congress of Mathematicians, in her speech Mrs. Maryna spoke about Ukraine, about Russia’s war against our country, about the crimes of the Russian occupiers.
Mrs. Maryna studied in Ukraine, in Kyiv, she works in Switzerland, in Lausanne, heads the department of number theory. And I believe that the day will come when Maryna Viazovska will be able to return to Ukraine and teach here.
I took part in the work of the “Asian Leadership” conference, which takes place every year in Seoul, the capital of the Republic of Korea. This is one of those platforms that attracts the attention of the entire region. And it is important for Ukraine that our interests and values are heard and perceived in all parts of the world, especially in the leading countries of Asia. I thanked them for their support and called for more active opposition to Russian terror tactics.
And what an evil irony: today the representatives of the occupation structures in Donetsk announced that they were, as they say, recognized by the DPRK. Of course, we will react in a very tough manner at all levels. But this is the news that does not even need additional comments. Everything is obvious. The path we are taking and the path the occupiers can lead to.
Debris clearance continues after the Russian attack on the city of Chasiv Yar. As of this time, the list of the dead includes 48 people, including one child. Unfortunately, the number of those rescued has not changed – 9 people. Rescuers will work on site until all debris is cleared. It was one of the most brutal Russian strikes during the entire war – so many victims… My condolences to the relatives and friends of the victims.
I am preparing to address the participants of the forum in The Hague in the Netherlands, which will be held tomorrow and dedicated to the prosecution of Russian war criminals. World democracies are willing to do everything necessary to make every Russian terrorist responsible for evil against Ukrainians. And we must coordinate our efforts in such a way that all the guilty receive fair sentences. There will be a tribunal.
Today in the news there are many references to the meeting in Turkey regarding the unblocking of agricultural exports from our country through the Black Sea. We are indeed making significant efforts to restore the supply of food to the world market. And I am grateful to the United Nations and Turkey for their respective efforts. The success of this story is needed not only by our state, but also, without exaggeration, by the whole world. If we manage to remove the Russian threat to navigation in the Black Sea, it will remove the severity of the world food crisis. The Ukrainian delegation informed me that there is some progress. We will agree on the details with the UN Secretary General in the coming days.
In the evening, as usual, I signed the decree awarding our warriors. 136 combatants were awarded state awards, 25 of them posthumously.
Eternal memory to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine!
Eternal gratitude to everyone who protects our country!
Glory to Ukraine!
As of my typing this, the Ukrainian MOD has not posted an operational update for today. There was also not a DOD backgrounder today.
Here is today’s British MOD assessment:
And here is there updated macro level map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s updated analysis and map for the battle of Kherson:
KHERSON AXIS / 1830 UTC 13 JUL / Kherson is assessed as a likely ‘first objective’ of the coming UKR offensive. UKR partisan and SOF activity has provided targeting data and conducted personnel interdiction missions against RU collaborators. pic.twitter.com/TsKj5UnAJx
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 13, 2022
If you’re seeing social media posts from the “hard core left” calling for the US to stop providing military aid for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia, which is overlapping with the extreme right in the US and its allies in Congress – Senator Paul and Congressman Massie are leading that effort – it is Russia using the Democratic Socialists of America as useful idiots.
INFORMATION OPERATION: During the Cold War, the Soviet Union used ‘active measures’ to agitate for 'international peace’ and nuclear rearmament. Now, the Kremlin attempting to ‘astro-turf’ a ‘grass roots’ anti-Ukraine war movement in the US. https://t.co/AzTIvsWpUE
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 13, 2022
This pretty well sums up this Information Operation:
(Image found here)
The Ukrainians are continuing there assault on Russian ammunition depots!
On July 13, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 5 Russian ammunition depots in the following towns:
▪️ Luhansk
▪️ Chernobaivka
▪️ Makiivka, Donetsk region
▪️ Chaplinka (district), Kherson region
▪️ Horlivka, Donetsk region pic.twitter.com/PfEEIwWBb7— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) July 13, 2022
Russian-occupied Luhansk tonight pic.twitter.com/jWIG9Ja4WB
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 12, 2022
Russia’s response was to reduce Bakhmut:
Bakhmut.
Just insane. pic.twitter.com/lL5ZZJNbZD— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 12, 2022
The Russians have transferred approximately 2 million Ukrainian citizens into either Russian occupied Ukraine or Russia itself as part of their efforts to ethnically cleans Ukraine with their genocidal re-invasion. This is what some of the Russian filtration process looks like:
One of examples how local residents in occupied #Mariupol pass "filtration" by #Russian occupiers. The invaders don't hesitate to check the whole body, be it a man or a women. They often do it with jokes, comments, rudeness, hatred#StopRussianAggression #StandWithUkraine️ pic.twitter.com/BxWXcMOAMe
— Emine Dzheppar (@EmineDzheppar) July 12, 2022
Ukraine’s agricultural sector is still being targeted by the Russians.
(CNN)Across Ukraine, in the shimmering heat, one sight is becoming familiar this summer: Combine harvesters sweeping across fields of grain in a race against fast-spreading fires.
The conflict’s front lines straddle some of Ukraine’s richest farmland. Whether caused by accident or intention, the fires darkening the summer sky are eating into a harvest that was always going to be tough to collect and even tougher to export.
Pavlo Serhienko is in the crosshairs of this battle. The 24-year-old is the third generation of his family to run a farm in the Vasylivka district of Zaporizhzhia. Since his father died from coronavirus, Serhienko is managing the 3,000-hectare farm on his own.
But nearly half the land is now too dangerous to cultivate, he told CNN on Saturday.
“We can’t even get there. It is either mined or near the occupied territories, literally the front line. We had occupiers on part of the fields.”
Serhienko has literally seen his family’s business go up in smoke.
“For the last four days, all our knees are covered in blood, we are extinguishing [fires in] the fields. They [the Russians] especially hit the fields — fields with wheat and barley — every day.”
He said in the past few days he had lost 30 hectares of wheat, and 55 hectares of barley. And “those 1,200 hectares I can’t reach are also burning. But what can I do? I won’t even go there.”
The sowing season was just as dangerous. “We sowed a field of 40 hectares. We had to leave the field four times to finish it. Every time we left, they shelled the place instantly. Once there were 23 mortar hits.”
Much more at the link.
The Guardian reports on the effects of the Russian blockade in the Black Sea:
A traffic jam of more than 130 cargo ships loaded with Ukrainian grain is waiting in the Black Sea to pass into the Danube as negotiators from Moscow, Kyiv, the UN and Turkey hailed progress at talks in Istanbul on easing Ukrainian agricultural exports.
The ships are waiting to access exit routes through the Sulina and Bystre estuary canals to reach a series of ports and terminals in Romania from where the grain can be transported on around the world, amid mounting global concern about the Russian blockade on Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea.
Maritime tracking services showed a logjam of ships waiting to pass into the Danube since a second route through the Bystre estuary was opened after the recent Russian retreat from the nearby Snake Island.
Previously, ships had been able to pass into the Danube only via the Sulina canal, whose passage is one-way, with cargo vessels having to wait weeks to pass through.
Although large carriers cannot pass through the Bystre estuary, limiting the amount of grain that can be exported, Ukrainian officials said on Wednesday that already 16 ships had transited the Bystre route in the four days since it reopened.
With mined ports and a Russian blockade on Ukraine’s south coast limiting maritime traffic, the northern branch of the Danube delta, which follows Ukraine’s southern border, and small riverine ports have taken on global importance amid warnings of famine in parts of Africa as Ukraine’s grain has been kept from the international market and prices have rocketed.
Until recently, the Bystre estuary route had been closed, but that has changed with the removal of Russian forces from Snake Island.
“Given the liberation of Zmiinyi [Snake] Island from Russian troops and the buildup of a large number of ships waiting to proceed through the Sulina canal, it is possible to use the channel of the Bystry estuary of the Danube-Black Sea waterway for the entry/exit of ships transporting agricultural produce,” the Administration of Sea Ports of Ukraine said in a statement at the weekend.
Ukrainian officials hope that the new route for grain exports will allow an additional 500,000 tons to be exported, although that will still be far short of the amount of grain that was exported before the Russian invasion.
The capacity of the new routes is “currently insufficient to replace seaports fully”, Ukrainian officials noted. In June Ukraine exported about 2.5m metric tons of goods, far short of the 8m metric tons it had hoped to export, the infrastructure ministry said.
Ukraine is the world’s leading wheat exporter, accounting for 9% of the global market. It also accounts for 42% of the sunflower oil market and 16% of world corn production.
Owing to Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports and a plethora of mines along the coast, 20m to 25m tons of wheat are stuck in Ukraine, pushing up world grain prices.
Russia and Ukraine met UN and Turkish officials on Wednesday in an attempt to break the months-long impasse over grain exports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows no signs of abating and the sides remain locked in a furious long-range shooting battle that is destroying towns and leaving people with nothing.
The Istanbul negotiations – the first face-to-face talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations since 29 March – are being complicated by growing suspicions that Russia is trying to export grain it has stolen from Ukrainian farmers in regions under its control.
Turkey’s defence minister Hulusi Akar said an agreement would be signed next week. He said Ankara will ensure the safety of shipments in transit and the parties will jointly check grain cargoes in ports. But the UN secretary-general António Guterres said more work was needed before a deal was signed.
Much more at the link. We’ll have to wait and see whether these negotiations in Istanbul and any actual agreement actually do anything or, as I expect, they’re just more of Putin weaponizing diplomacy.
Before someone asks, as I wrote a couple of week’s ago, there are only two real effective options for getting the Black Sea reopened to transnational shipping, including moving grain from Ukraine. The first is for the US, its EU and NATO, and non-EU and non-NATO allies to re-flag the grain ships and then provide escorts for them as they transit through the Black Sea. The second is for the US, its EU and NATO, and non-EU and non-NATO allies to perform freedom of navigation operations along the Sea Lines of Commerce and Communication (SLOCC) in the Black Sea. This could be accompanied by an exercise, say for responding to a disaster like a major oil spill, which would put the Coast Guard in the lead for the exercise. And both options are complimentary, they’re not either/or. Finally, I don’t think either will happen because I don’t think the Biden administration is willing to assume that much risk.
The last thing I want to cover tonight is partially related to the agricultural issue. Specifically that Ukraine needs more cash aid! The Financial Times has the details:
Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the country now needed $9bn a month from its western backers to plug the budgetary shortfall, almost double its previous request.
The finance ministry said its assessment of the gap was still $5bn a month but even that was way more than western capitals had so far provided.
But Ustenko said Ukraine needed an extra $4bn a month for the next three months to cover the cost of emergency accommodation and housing repairs for millions of people and to fund a basic minimum income for people who have lost their jobs.
“We will try to survive in any case, but without financial support from our allies it will not only be difficult to do so, it will be next to impossible.”
Much, much, much more at the link!
Given that Russia is still raking in huge profits for its energy exports, this is not just a big problem, but an asymmetrical one as well.
Russia’s oil exports rose back above $20 billion in June despite lower shipments abroad because of a rally in energy prices, according to the International Energy Agency.
That was an increase by $700 million from a month earlier, even as Russia’s daily exports of crude-oil and products fell by 250,000 barrels to 7.4 million barrels, the lowest since August, the IEA estimated in its monthly report published on Wednesday.
Benchmark Brent averaged more than $117 a barrel last month as the global oil market remained tight. High international prices helped to partially offset the discount for Urals crude, which deepened amid the European Union’s preparations to gradually phase out seaborne oil imports from Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
In June, the Urals price rose 10.7% from previous month and averaged $87.25 a barrel, according to Russia’s Finance Ministry. Still, a stronger ruble meant Russia’s budget, over a third of which comes from oil and gas, didn’t reap the full benefits from higher crude. The ruble gained more than 15% against the dollar in June amid a flood of export revenue and lower imports.
Much more at the link!
Russia can still bring in funding through its energy sales, even if they have to discount it, and then count on third party states – India, Iran, the PRC – to sell it at least some of the materials it needs for its war effort and its domestic economy. As a result the economic sanctions regime is still not making a major dent.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Oh, thank you! 😊 https://t.co/3wHUbOrr0w
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 13, 2022
Me and @Denys_Shmyhal , PM of #Ukraine. Some say it is your first smiling photo at work. My pleasure, come again 🤭 pic.twitter.com/Oju2kukv4Z
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 13, 2022
For those of you Patron addicts, and you know who you are and so do the rest of us, if the daily Patron parts of the updates are not enough, he now has a Patreon where you can pay to get all the Patron content your hearts’ desire! All the proceeds go to support Ukraine’s sappers.
And here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Коли намагаєшся сказати щось розумне не в своїй компанії😅 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption translates as:
When you try to say something smart not in your company #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraine
Open thread!
Entitled Punks
Gin & Tonic
I believe you meant to type “for Ukraine to defend itself.”
HumboldtBlue
Extraordinary. Absolutely extraordinary.
And fuck the Russians.
Adam L. Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for catching that. I fixed it.
YY_Sima Qian
Absolutely sickening that the Russian Army is using multiple rocket launchers (possibly w/ thermobaric warheads? can’t tell) against urban populations, & ultimately self-defeating. They have done this before in Ukraine, Syria, Chechnya, of course, but previously at least there was a military logic (though immoral) of terrorizing the targeted populations & demoralize the defenders.
After losing needed ammo at dumps close to the frontlines, the Russia Army is wasting remaining precious ammo against civilian targets that will not help the military campaign, & only serve to harden Ukrainian resolve? Shades of Hitler re-directing the Luftwaffe from targeting RAF airfields & radar stations, to London & other urban centers, during the Battle of Britain.
Ksmiami
Biden should want to risk it in terms of unraveling the blockade. Preventing Putin from starving the world is worth it.
Gin & Tonic
@HumboldtBlue: Quick note to those who are unaccustomed to this, the form of address “Mrs. [FirstName]” or “Mr. [FirstName]” is very respectful, yet a little more friendly than saying “Mr. [LastName]” – not anything like the way Americans call people by their first name in almost all settings.
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks, that definitely caught my eye.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
not so easy.
Commercial carriers would have to reflag as US or NATO carriers,
Turkey would have to agree to let US/NATO forces into the Black Sea for the mission, and would be limited in size and capabilities.
Both Russia and Ukraine have deployed sea mines, with some number having “drifted” from their positions.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/11/sea-mines-ukraine-waters-russia-war-black-sea
Alison Rose
I just…………want to scream. I can’t even put together anything coherent right now. Except to say that “useful idiots” is about the nicest possible way to describe the DSA.
Also that I agree with Ksmiami. And yet it feels futile, and I know it’s implausible or whatnot for a variety of reasons. But it makes us seem so fucking helpless as a supposed world power.
Thank you as always, Adam.
SpaceUnit
I would like to know what sort of conditions exist for those Ukrainians trapped in Russian-controlled territory. Are we getting any information or intelligence out of these areas? Do they have food and other provisions? Electricity? What is daily life like? Also is there any sort of organized underground resistance? Open resistance?
I’m very worried about these folks.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
reports from Ukrainians able to contact family in the occupied zones,
food rare, scarce, basic, power and water rare,
Medicine and medical care rare,
constant Russian harassment, searches, looting, robbery, random detention, rapes and torture, forced housing of Russian troops and random violence and murders.
Forced deportation,
passive resistance to occupation, ( protest),
active resistance to occupation, ( sabotage, assassinations, target spotting and intel relaying).
HinTN
@Gin & Tonic: Here in the south, Mr Firstname is a well understood form of address.
Also too, Fuck Rissia!
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose : my theory is we put the monster down now or we contend with a larger monster later. I feel the same way about MAGA nation too.
Ksmiami
@Jay: ok. Get our mine sweepers in and give Turkey everything they want for now.
James E Powell
@Gin & Tonic:
Like this?
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Shit. Guess I’ll take what solace I can from your last line.
Major Major Major Major
That DSA tweet is making me so mad, lol. The “international committee” has been a fucking joke for a long time but still
glc
Since Viazovska got some nice attention I’ll just pop this in from Wikipedia to round it out.
In this passage, “long” is a severe understatement, but that’s a different tale, so fair enough.
lowtechcyclist
A big congrats to Maryna Viazovska! The Fields Medal is just as much of a BFD in mathematics as Zelenskyy said it is. There is no Nobel Prize for Mathematics (no, I don’t know why), and this is what we have instead.
And good on her for using her platform to speak about the war.
Jay
@Ksmiami:
Mine sweepers work with established minefields, even though it’s a very dangerous job, drones can map the minefields, making it a bit safer.
Drifting mines are a whole different kettle of fish. They are usually found when they blow up or wash ashore.
the Montreaux Convention limits what can be deployed to the Black Sea , and it would require international agreements to modify the size and capability limits.
Geminid
@Ksmiami: Turkish President Erdogan will be in Iran next week to discuss Syria with Putin and Iranian President Raisi (aka “The Hangman”). Al-Monitor reports that Putin and Erdogan will also hold a bilateral meeting with one of the topics being Ukrainian grain shipments. Reuters and the New York Times also have articles on this.
I’d like to see a transcript of Putin’s and Erdogan’s meeting. I imagine it as, “Bear, meet Mule.” They’ve met before of course.
Alison Rose
@Ksmiami: yep
Uncle Cosmo
@Gin & Tonic: Quick note to you, boychik: This “very respectful” form of address has been standard usage in Baltimore since I was a kid 65 years ago. Pleased to share it with heroic Ukraine! #NotAllAmericans
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: I wonder if any of the four DSA members in the House Democratic Caucus will comment on the their party’s statement. Their fans like to portray them as having courage that other Democrats lack. I think they’ll keep their heads down on this one, though.
Ksmiami
@Geminid: trust none of them. Bribe Turkey. Don’t make the same mistake the Brits did by not aligning prior to WW1.
Major Major Major Major
@Geminid: they probably agree with them.
Carlo Graziani
So far as financial aid is concerned, it may finally be time to pass the legislation required to convert the “frozen” Russian state assets under US control into “seized” assets, and begin turning them over to the Ukrainian government as war reparations. Likewise for oligarch wealth. There are known issues of international law that ought to be hashed out, but it seems to me that much of that can be trumped by assertion of sovereign power and war exigency, and sorted out much later anyway. Very likely the UK would follow suit — a lot of that hoard is stashed there — and the EU might go along too. Since it’s quite clear that the Russians cannot be reasoned with, we might as well make it clear to them that those bridges are well and truly burned.
topclimber
Adam, you deserve great credit for your daily updates. They are comprehensive and most informative.
That being said, I must say you seem to have a blind spot when it comes to diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine War. You may well be right in terms of the overall war–perhaps only a decisive Ukrainian victory will lead to peace, although how this happens without a drawn out flushing of all Russian troops from the country is hard to understand. And how that in turn happens without more megabillions of collateral damage to the Ukrainian economy and without the negative consequences of an extended Ukrainian diaspora is harder still to see.
Rather than engage on the larger issue, I want to focus on a diplomatic solution to the blockade of Ukrainian wheat exports. The two options you put forth are basically aquatic versions of a no-fly zone–i.e. a solution posited on Western military might. This is exactly the approach that, based on prior US adventurism, sours the global South on our leadership.
What I am driving at is that a solution that involved non-Western/Russian powers–perhaps led by China, India,leading African and Middle Eastern countries–might actually have chance to work. These are the folks most likely to suffer from the direct or indirect effects of keeping Ukrainian exports off the market. The US would be better served by promoting efforts of such nations than trying to force its own solution.
Perhaps you have made this point elsewhere. If so, my apologies. If not, why not?
Alison Rose
The U.S. accuses Russia of war crimes, specifying hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian deportations.
Well, yes. Now…what shall be done about said war crimes? Statements and tut-tutting and telling russia “hey stop that” is, um, not going to be enough.
Alison Rose
@topclimber: What solution involving China and India do you see as having any potential?
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: The DSA has a large slate of candidates running in Democratic primaries for various state and local offices in the New York metro area. They generally try to keep their DSA affiliation on the down low, but when Russia invaded Ukraine questions were asked.
Voter: “Wait! DSA has a foreign policy? What! You want us to leave NATO?”
DSA candidate: “I really think it would be more productive to talk about my ideas concerning affordable housing and criminal justice reform.”
Voter: “Leave NATO?!!”
Freemark
@Major Major Major Major: Seems you’re wrong. International Socialists are pissed off at them for doing things like this
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L. Silverman:
I think the sanctions on supplying semiconductors to Russia will have a major impact on both the war effort & on its domestic economy. They may be able to obtain some chips on the black market for manufacture of some weapons & munitions, but not likely enough to sustain its current rate of expenditure, & certainly not enough for its domestic economy.
Right now, Chinese/Indian/Others firms are deterred from working directly w/ Russian entities in sanctioned areas due to the threatening “long arm” legal reach of US/western sanctions. However, that only remain true of these firms are not themselves under US sanctions for other reasons. The US is escalating the tech war w/ China, more & more Chinese tech firms are under one form of US sanction or another. Right now, the Biden Administration is deliberating whether to restrict sale of semiconductor manufacturing equipment even for mature technology nodes to SMIC (China’s leading chip foundry), in an attempt to slow China;s technological advance in semiconductors. The problem is that China is already largely independent in equipment & materials used for mature technology nodes, at least in terms of technological supply, if not capacity. The proposed sanctions will merely give more business to Chinese equipment/materials manufactures, giving them more revenue to fund their R&D in the advanced nodes.
The more Chinese tech firms are sanctioned, the less they feel inhibited from working w/ other targets under US sanction. I have written this before, while I feel the Biden team has done an outstanding job wrt Ukraine, its foreign policy elsewhere (wrt China, Iran, the Middle East, the Global South) is striking in its lack of focus, coherence, & prioritization. Every policy issue has its proponents in parts of the Administration that believe it should be the top priority, & their vocal supporters in Congress. If everything is a priority, then nothing is. Biden himself does not have the bandwidth to be constantly making judgment calls on every issue.
Bill Arnold
@topclimber:
Putin could end immediate hostilities in 2 days by publicly ordering Russia’s invasion/occupation forces to withdraw from Ukraine, starting a quick and visible withdrawal that did not involve additional war crimes.
Zelenskyy has said this, approximately.
topclimber
@Alison Rose : I am not a diplomat. But both might relish the role of presenting a non-US alternative to the problem. (That almost requires a snark tag). Both have cred with Russia. China I believe has good relations with Ukraine (YY Sima source??). So they could be neutral bargainers. Likewise Turkey.
Saudi Arabia has its puppet state in Egypt to prop up, and less wheat will be bad news there. They may also remember how food shortages from drought helped ignite the Syrian revolution that freaked them out.
Do you have any ideas? Seriously, might it do to put all our minds to work on such solutions, given that gunboat diplomacy ain’t gonna cut it? Or shall we just demonstrate each day how much we root for Ukraine from our bastions far removed from the bloodshed?
topclimber
@Bill Arnold: Do I have to specify: realistic diplomatic solutions? Otherwise, we can all hope for magical ones.
Alison Rose
@topclimber: Of course I want an end to the war, but I am also not a diplomat, and I can only go on what I have seen of China and India during the invasion, which is to say, nothing that would indicate either country gives a single fuck about Ukraine or the Ukrainian people.
topclimber
@YY_Sima Qian: When it comes to evading sanctions, Russia has an advantage in that its leader is essentially a crime boss. With enough oil profits and criminal connections, the chips will fall.
Major Major Major Major
@Freemark: One can vote for something they don’t agree with. They’re politicians.
Geminid
@Freemark: Whenever I look up the Democratic Socialists of America, I turn up articles by the World Socialist Web Site. They have a great time skewering the DSA for its “inside, outside” strategy of running candidates as Democrats.
This strategy also can create friction within the party. They had a big blow up this spring over Jamaal Bowman’s vote for Iron Dome funding. I followed it some on Twitter. I could tell people were mad when they started addressing one another as “Comrade.”
Andrya
@topclimber: What are you smoking? China and India are sucking up to russia, Syria is under russian control, Iran is a russian ally/client state, Saudi Arabia is being extremely unhelpful, Israel’s position is ambiguous. Just what “neutral” country do you envision doing this?
Third world countries, like any other country, update their priorities along with changing situations. Obviously, the US fought a war against Vietnam in which 58,000 American soldiers died, along with more than a million Viet Cong and North Vietnamese soldiers (plus many more Vietnamese civilians). Today, however, the US and Vietnam are de facto allies, as the Vietnamese struggle with China claiming the south Pacific as its own territorial waters.
What’s my point?: third world countries will oppose the US when we act oppressively, but will not oppose us when we act for genuine liberty. I suspect the government of Vietnam will be quite comfortable with the US defending freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, since they are depending on us to do the same in the South China Sea.
Major Major Major Major
@Geminid: It was hip to be in the DSA what feels like a long time ago, but they’ve spent the intervening years beclowning themselves on things like this, supporting the do-nothing NIMBY crowd in most places I pay attention to (RIP SB 50)…
topclimber
@Geminid: #32 FYI.
glc
@Major Major Major Major:
Is there some reason to believe that? My understanding is that there were 10 votes against the Lend-Lease bill, all from Republicans. Apparently even the “centrist” monkey-wrench throwers beloved of the DNC were on board for that.
Major Major Major Major
@glc: they complain about basically all other military-adjacent spending, I think politics is more likely than this being a special case, but I guess it doesn’t really matter.
Omnes Omnibus
@Alison Rose :
War crimes trials tend to come after hostilities end. People have spent year hunting down and prosecuting war criminals from the Balkan wars of the 90s.
Geminid
@topclimber: Not news to me. I follow these people fairly closely.
My point was that instead of publically affirming or rejecting the International Commitee’s Ukraine policy, the four DSA/Democrat Representatives will probably keep their heads down in this matter.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
A real throwback to the days of Winnie C.
ian
@Major Major Major Major: Usually you are more thoughtful than this.
As anyone in their right fucking minds should.
Here is AOC
https://twitter.com/repaoc/status/1508492301097926656
Here is Cori Bush
https://bush.house.gov/media/press-releases/bush-statement-on-ukraine-supplemental-funding-vote
Here is Jamaal Bowman
https://bowman.house.gov/press-releases?ID=CC295767-DA4E-4011-B5FA-FD5DE2356786
Here is you
Do you base that on anything, or just a distrust of DSA?
topclimber
@Andrya: Whatever I am smoking, I am not blowing it in your face when I point out that you have the suck up vs. sucked up to relationship mixed up between China and Russia. In any case, please consider whether Beijing might welcome the chance to challenge the default model of US global leadership by taking a stab at peace-making.
Puff on this one too: my point about Syria is that its civil war freaked out the Saudis, who are unhelpful in terms of our gas prices but plausibly concerned about what shocks famine will bring to their backyard. Syrian upheaval also bothered the Turks, who are on good terms with both the US and Russia. I don’t find it inconceivable that they would think stopping famine would not only be good policy but also good politics.
topclimber
@Geminid: What matter is that? Dissing the DSA or backing the Ukrainians. Guess which one I think is more important.
Andrya
@debbie: If by “Winnie C” you mean Winston Churchill, I have to dispute your facts. The left, in 1938 Britain, meant the Labour Party, which in those days was unrepentantly Socialist. In the vote on the Munich agreement in 1938, Clement Atlee (leader of the Labour Party) and a majority of the Labour Party voted “no”. The Tories (Conservative Party) were split, and the Liberals were majority pro the Munich agreement.
After Nazi Germany invaded Poland (September 1 1939) the UK (and France) declared war on Nazi Germany. King George VI invited the leaders of all parties to a meeting, and asked Clement Atlee if he would support a national unity government with Neville Chamberlain (Mr. Appeasement himself) as Prime Minister. Atlee replied that no, Chamberlain was too associated with appeasement, the Prime Minister must be Winston Churchill.
So no, in the run up to WW2, the British left was NOT associated with appeasement.
debbie
@topclimber:
You seriously see Russia taking the diplomatic route on anything? What useless piece of space junk can I sell you at a great profit?
Geminid
@topclimber: The “matter” I refer to is the DSA International Commitee’s statement on arms shipments to Ukraine that was cited in the post. I think that’s pretty clear.
YY_Sima Qian
@topclimber: China had very friendly relations w/ Ukraine before 2014, after the collapse of the USSR. After 2014, as Ukraine became more dependent on the US & the EU for its security, & as Sino-Russian relations tightened, there was a corresponding distancing of Sini-Ukrainian relations. Nevertheless, Sino-Ukrainian relations remained quite cordial & mutually beneficial. Until Russia started interfering w/ Ukrainian food exports, either directly or indirectly as consequence of the invasion, China was Ukraine’s largest trade partner.
However, the official Chinese neutrality in the conflict has a pro-Russian lean, at least rhetorically. Chinese foreign policy in general is also quite risk averse, so Chinese leaderships will not likely look to play the “honest broker” if there is no peace to be made. Leaders like Xi & Modi are also amoral, they will not do anything just to relieve the suffering of Ukrainians or the populations of the Global South.
However, Xi & Chinese foreign policy in general has a strong preference for order, stability & predictability in international relations, and a food crises in the developing world, on top of an energy crises around the world, on top of the economic disruption of the pandemic (& associated collapse of financial positions in the Global South countries), is certainly not good for international order, stability or predictability. The ongoing turmoil in Sri Lanka is merely the 1st to blow up. There are more to come. These Global South countries are key partners for China’s Belt & Road Initiative, & reliable supporters of China’s position in the UN & other international organizations. As things truly reach crisis, Xi might be more motivated to act.
Finally, Putin is not anyone’s puppet. Even if XI & Modi both lean on him, I don’t see him relenting a bit on strangling Ukraine’s food exports w/o something in return, probably sanction relief. However, there is no domestic space anywhere in the west for this kind of deal, even tacit ones, & such a deal will merely reward Putin’s hostage taking & encourage him to take more. He can also take deniable actions to blow up any deal any time he wants.
topclimber
@debbie: Yes and none (not even space junk at a loss).
Andrya
@topclimber: I would agree that the sucking up relationship goes both ways between russia and China, but it is delusional to think that China, under these circumstances, would lift one finger (or boat) to break the russian naval blockade of Ukraine.
China has a huge investment in the idea “nuclear powers can restrict commerce in international waters” since that is precisely what they are doing/trying to do with regard to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan.
debbie
@ian:
The point is about whether Russia/Putin seem genuinely interested in negotiation, not negotiation itself. A bad faith partner gets you nothing. The only thing we should be negotiating with Putin is which fucking door he’ll show himself out of, NOW.
Major Major Major Major
@ian: happy to be wrong on this one! But, i guess I base it on the fans of theirs that I talk to.
debbie
@Andrya:
No, not appeasement, but they were actively involved in trying to win over as many Americans to their cause. It’s late and I apologize for not being more well-spoken.
topclimber
@YY_Sima Qian: I agree that Putin is no one’s puppet. But he might value the chance to appear magnanimous if the offer comes from someone he kind of trusts, rather than from a US he thinks has been trying to diminish Russia for most of his adult life.
debbie
Ukraine’s use of social media is awe-inspiring. There isn’t anyone who couldn’t learn something from them.
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: Vietnam certainly welcomes US presence to counterbalance China in the South China Sea (Vietnam couldn’t care less about the South Pacific, it’s the Australians that are panicking there). However, don’t expect Vietnam to do anything on Ukraine. There was a photo making the rounds on Twitter a while ago purportedly showing the Chinese delegation to the Munich Security Conference sitting on their hands when Zelensky came online to give an address to the gathering, while everyone else stood & applauded. It turned out that the photo was showing the Vietnamese delegation. Then it happened again a month later at the Shangri-La Dialogues in Singapore. Clearly shows which way the Vietnamese security establishment, which has decades of alliance/partnership w/ 1st the USSR & then Russia, falls. The Chinese delegation to the Munich Conference scheduled a bilateral meeting w/ another delegation when Zelensky spoke, & the Chinese Defense Minister that led the military delegation to Shangri-La Dialogues actually deviated from the official line when he addressed the forum, calling the war in Ukraine an “invasion”. He & other Chinese delegates actually applauded Zelensky when he came online to address that gathering. Many China-watchers were busy reading the tea leaves to see if these messages portended a subtle shift in Chinese stance. Most likely not, but it may betray the increasing contempt the Chinese military holds toward their Russian counterparts, at least in convention warfare.
Jay
@topclimber:
Putin has counted on starvation, to create a refugee crisis for the West, to undermine Ukraine, ( along with his 5th Column and “Useful Idiots”)
Diplomatic pressure from those affected, won’t have any results. India has a record grain crop and has banned exports. China is fine for food.
Those affected, don’t have the political or military muscle to “force” Russia off it’s stance.
debbie
@topclimber:
Why would Putin welcome a chance to look magnanimous when he’s already convinced he’s got Peter the Great coursing through his decrepit veins?
Negotiation is noble, but in this instance, it is a waste of time.
topclimber
@Andrya: Sorry if I did not make it clear. Their is no equality in the relationship between Russian and China. China is the dominant player, more so every day.
You make a good point about China disrespecting international waters. Perhaps that imperative will offset their desire to challenge the US as a global leader. I don’t think it crazy that they may play at peacemaker one day and peace breaker the next.
Andrya
@YY_Sima Qian: I wasn’t suggesting anything at all about the attitude of the Vietnamese government toward the Ukraine conflict. I was aware that they did not vote for a UN resolution condemning russia, and it would be totally understandable that they would want to keep out of China’s targeting. In any case, as far as I know, Vietnam does not have a navy capable of projecting power as far away as the Black Sea. My point was simply that third world countries, former victims of colonialism (as Vietnam was) revise their worldview as the world situation changes.
topclimber
@Jay: I agree with your main point, at least as I understand it: It sucks to be a little fish in an ocean of sharks.
One nagging question about India, though. If you are so flush with grain, why would you ban exports? It is either the time to cash in monetarily, or diplomatically by favoring allies with lower prices.
Alison Rose
@topclimber:
Thanks, I needed a good laugh right about now.
Come the entire fuck on. What in Putin’s behavior in his entire sorry ass life, let alone the last few months, makes you think he gives a single solitary shit about “appearing magnanimous”??? He’s committing massive war crimes on a daily fucking basis. He’s directing a genocide as we speak and blaming the victims for it. He calls a Jewish man who lost multiple family members to Hitler’s minions a fucking Nazi. He’s ordered mass kidnappings and raised an army that thinks rape is a perk of the job.
Magnanimous? Are you literally out of your mind?
Andrya
@debbie: I apologize too for not working harder to understand what you were saying. But I also thank you, because I thoroughly enjoyed researching 1938/1939 in historical documents. (I’m a history nerd, especially a military history nerd.)
However, (still being a history nerd) it wasn’t only British left who were working to involve the US. To quote “Winnie C”: “No lover ever studied every whim of his mistress as I did those of President Roosevelt.”
topclimber
@debbie: Perhaps. Silly me, I would rather waste some time then a few thousand more deaths this month.
Negotiations don’t work until they do.
Consider a scenario in which Putin thinks he can keep Crimea (highly likely), turns the eastern oblasts into a buffer state (at least even odds) and then APPEAR (not BE for God’s sake) magnanimous by helping folks in food-poor countries. You might think it impossible he would do it, and I wouldn’t fault you for your opinion. But it is far from inconceivable that he might.
topclimber
@Alison Rose :
Putin will use whatever propaganda tool he can. If an act that helps potential allies in the Global South (you know, the ones who have NOT fallen all over themselves following the US lead on Ukraine) is to his advantage, he will undertake it.
ETA: I am talking about magnanimous re: starving folks in the Middle East and Africa, not Ukrainians, who he, like his idol Stalin, is all too happy to kill.
debbie
@Andrya:
Yeah, I can hear him saying that. I remember everyone’s first move upon arrival in America was to establish a group and publish a broadsheet/mailing pieces. I’m broadly overgeneralizing, but it was a kinder, gentler time in its own way.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Yeah, this.
Sorry, but I feel that this discussion is a bit of a wheel-spinner.
In the first instance, no diplomatic “solution” has any realistic chance of accomplishing anything. There is simply no tangible benefit to the Russians that would be worth the cost of such a deal. It’s in “rub a lamp” territory.
As to forcing the Black Sea open by reflagging, escorting, or other such gambits, evidently there are disagreements on whether such actions pass or flunk a risk/benefit analysis. My view is that the trickle of grain in question is probably not the greatest reason to pick this particular fight. It would be more of a symbolic action that a substantive one, and the regret would be that much greater if unforseen consequences ensued. Which, one should bear in mind, does tend to occur in these kinds of military crises.
Andrya
@topclimber: The problem with that is, there is nothing to keep putin from coming back, in 3, 4, or 5 years, to take another bite of Ukraine. Remember, Ukraine gave up its Soviet era nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees from russia and the US. putin totally disregarded russia’s commitment to Ukraine. putin’s word is garbage. Given a choice between taking putin’s word or Al Capone’s I would go with Al Capone.
Jay
@topclimber:
Because if your people can’t eat, and it might be a couple years before things stabilize, grains can keep for decades. Same reasons why medieval castles stored grain, and the US have a bunch of “strategic reserves”.
debbie
@topclimber:
Your choice totally.
All I know is the first thing Putin did when he got to his new job following the dissolution of the KGB was to have a documentary produced about himself titled, “Power.” I’ve seen nothing’s that changed from that since then. It’s just his nature.
You’re more than welcome to your hopeful optimism. I’m not the boss of anyone
Night.
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: OT, but China has not made any attempt to interfere w/ commercial shipping w/in the “Nine Dashed Line” in the South China Sea, since the majority of the commercial shipping traffic in the region is going to & from China. Unlike the USN & USCG, BTW, which has seen fit to assign themselves the enforcers of both international law & US law on the high seas, when & how they see fit, & do often interfere w/ commercial vessels of other nationalities for any activity they deem suspicious, w/ or w/o public evidence.
OTOH, China has interfered w/ attempts by Vietnam & Filipino companies, often in JV w/ western oil majors, to prospect & exploit gas & oil reserves w/in China’s “Nine Dashed Line”, which is basically anything more than a few dozen nautical miles away from their shores. Chinese coast guard & maritime militia have also sometimes interfered w/ fishing activities in & around the Spratly Islands, though that is something all of the claimants do on a fairly regular bases. China has settled the maritime dispute w/ Vietnam in the Gulf of Tonkin in the early aughts, & their coast guards & navies conduct regular joint patrols, even while their coast guards were playing bumper boats elsewhere near the Paracel & Spratly Islands (as when China planted an oil drilling/prospecting platform) near the Paracel Islands a few years ago. China also has a joint oil exploration agreement w/ the Philippines to prospect & develop oil & gas resources in parts of the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines (& China), signed when Duterte was in power. Now that Marco, Jr. has succeeded Duterte, he may seek to further the implementation of that agreement.
What China is strongly contesting is attempt by the US to solidify a reading of the UNCLOS treaty that says US military vessels can traverse other countries’ Economic Exclusion Zones in “innocent passage”, as long as the US vessels are not taking any overtly hostile actions. Hence, the US policy of periodically sending USN ships into disputed maritime territories & other countries’ EEZs. Many other nations (China, India, Brazil & most of the Global South) disagree, & consider any surveillance & demonstration activity to be “non-innocent” & indeed hostile, & the only “innocent passage” is quick transit from Point A to Point B. BTW, despite being quite vocal about upholding the principles of UNCLOS, the US has failed to ratify the convention (obstruction by the GOP in the Senate, of course), which lead the US being vulnerable to easy charges of hypocrisy.
Alison Rose
@topclimber: Sorry, but I don’t think Putin gives a damn about people in the Middle East or Africa any more than he does about people in Ukraine. FFS he barely even cares about people in russia. Putin cares about Putin. People dying anywhere is of less than zero concern to him.
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: Yes they do, but moral outrage & indignation will get nowhere in the Global South. I’ve said it before, the best chance (not to be confused w/ good chance) is to convince the Global South countries to put covert & overt pressure on China & India to get them to put more pressure on Putin. Even then, Putin will want something in exchange.
Andrya
@YY_Sima Qian: I do not think that what you describe is OK. Also, China has been building artificial islands in what were previously international waters and then claiming the ocean around them. Also, Chinese boats has rammed a Philippine fishing boat in what they (very dubiously) claim as Chinese territorial waters, and sailed off without rescuing the crew. I doubt this is the only time. Simply not OK.
topclimber
@Carlo Graziani: You need to stipulate that the peace agreement you have in mind is strictly on western terms. Clearly there is a benefit to Russia if their control of Crimea, along with access to water and land routes to sustain it, were to be ratified. Since there is about zero chance Russia will give up what it won in 180 years ago (Charge of the Light Brigade and all that), Putin will make that his minimal demand. If he can live with the notion that a Ukraine in the EU is ok as long as it is not in NATO, it might be enough. Yes, of course, assuming Ukraine agrees.
Meanwhile, I am puzzled by the total victory syndrome around here. That has tended to be the exception rather than the rule in European history. The most recent total victory there brought us a cold war, followed soon by nuclear standoff. Spare me a repeat.
Andrya
@topclimber: As I said before, russia gave a security guarantee to Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. In 2014, Ukraine de facto accepted russia’s conquest of Crimea. In both cases, putin came back for more. putin’s word is clearly garbage. If Ukraine accepted the deal you describe, can you suggest any mechanism whatsoever that would make it a final deal, rather than just a chance for putin to fix the problems with his military and then come back for more?
Hitler: “The Sudetenland is my last territorial demand in Europe.”
BeautifulPlumage
@topclimber: “Meanwhile, I am puzzled by the total victory syndrome around here.”
Huh. I’m puzzled why you even are.
Jay
f@Andrya:
What I was going to point out.
Carlo Graziani
@topclimber: What seems confused to me is the notion that a settlement of navigation rights in the Black Sea can somehow be separated from the settlement of the wider war, whatever view one may take of the latter. The chances of this being true are zero, to many significant figures, in my opinion.
Black Sea navigation rights are a bludgeon that Putin will quite simply not give up for any reason whatever. They give him leverage over the countries that are smothering Russia with sanctions. Sanctions relief is the goal. Particularly now that the energy leverage that Russia used to have over Europe is slipping away, it is delusional to believe that any sort of humanitarian argument (with Putin?) would carry any weight.
And whatever you may say about victory and war aims, in my opinion there should be no concessions to Russia whatever on sanctions. By the time the temperatures start dropping in Moscow and Petersburg, those sanctions will give many current fans of Russian nationalist TV second thoughts about the wisdom of the war.
topclimber
@BeautifulPlumage: Because otherwise the field is left wide open to idiots who insist on group think.
topclimber
@Carlo Graziani: A temporary agreement to ship enough grain to stave off hunger in countries Putin wants to court diplomatically might pave the way to a wider settlement, or not. Is that really so confusing to you?
You keep on telling us sanctions will hit Russia soon, and hard. I really hope you are right. If not…
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: No, Chinese actions are not OK, but what is often described in Western press & by Western governments are also factually incorrect. There are plenty of things that the CCP regime does, domestically & international, that deserve plenty of criticism & censure, w/o resorting to make up Chinese crimes & imputing motives w/o evidence. That just damage the credibility of the parties making the criticism.
Back in the 80s & 90s, when Chinese navy & coast guard was quite weak, it was the Chinese fishermen being trampled by Vietnamese & Filipino navies in the Spratly Islands. (Have you seen Vietnam’s maritime territorial claims in the South China Sea? It is 2nd only to China in terms of audacity & shamelessness.) Now that Chinese navy & coast guard have reached dominance in quantity & quality, it’s more often the Chinese doing the trampling.
As for the artificial islands, they were constructed by landfill from features that China has already occupied since the 1980s & 90s, not on unoccupied features or by kicking other claimants off features that they have occupied. In the 60s – 80s, there was a mad scramble by claimants surrounding the South China Sea to occupy features in the Spratly Islands, planting flags, markers & small garrisons, on the rumor of the wealth of hydrocarbon resources there. China was late into the game, taking control of 7 features only after defeating Vietnam in a sea skirmish in 1988. Vietnam & the Philippines each occupy 20+ features in the Spratlies. Through out the 90s & 00s all of the countries occupying features went to work expanding the structures on their occupied features, building permanent structures & doing small scale landfilling to make the features artificial islands.
The big difference of the Chinese island building efforts in the mid-aughts is the scale of the effort. China leveraged its superior financial & engineering resources to rearrange the chess board in its favor. These new “islands” provide China immense advantages in peacetime presence, providing forward operating bases for Chinese naval & coast guard presence, as well as surveillance capability that afford China superior situational awareness. However, we should not oversell the utility of these artificial islands in a military conflict. All of the fuel, munitions & most of the supplies still need to be shipped in, meaning a long logistic tail all the way back to the mainland. Some of the “islands” are also w/in heavy artillery range of Vietnamese occupied features a couple of dozen kms away, & Vietnam has indeed placed heavy artillery on these features. Vietnam is now also dredging sand to enlarge its occupied features, but that is not game it is likely to win against China.
BTW, China’s extraordinary claims in the South China Sea are not inventions of the CCP regime bent on expansion, they originated in the Qing Dynasty, inherited by the ROC, then the PRC. As soon as Japan surrender in 1945, Chiang Kai-Shek sent a Chinese naval flotilla to the Spratly Islands to demonstrate Chinese claims. Chinese navy also occupied Taiping Island, the only feature that could be considered a natural island in the Spratlies, since that time. Throughout the 50s – 70s, when most of the western world recognized the KMT government on Taiwan as the sole legitimate representative of all of China, not one of the western powers challenged the ROC’s claims. The other nations around the South China Sea were in no position to press claims immediately after WW II, because most were still colonies of European & American Empires. (BTW, the official ROC map still shows “Thirteen Dashed Lines” in the South China Sea, including 2 in the Gulf of Tonkin that claim most of it as Chinese.) The ROC government thought occupying Taiping Island was enough to secure its claim to the Spratlies, but they were wrong. As both the PRC & the ROC were focused on their hostilities in the 60s & 70s, the newly independent nations that surround the South China Sea started to press their claims & occupy features.
As I see it, not one country has solid claims on the Spratly Islands, or is entitled to huge swaths of the South China Sea based on claims to the Islands. The reason I say “features” is because these are mostly submerged atolls & rocks (except Taiping Island, still in Taiwanese hands) that the claimants have been occupying & expanding on, none capable of independently supporting human presence. The entire area should be international waters, & its resources jointly explored & exploited by the surrounding nations (including China & Taiwan). The Chinese “historical” claims are preposterous. Vietnam likes to cite history in its claims, too, equally preposterous.
topclimber
@Andrya: Looks like my reply went awry.
Honestly I have to research the promises made to BOTH Russia and Ukraine before answering. I have recollections that differ from yours, but jackal practice notwithstanding, I prefer not to speak totally out of my butt.
As for guaranteeing things about Putin, I cannot do that any more than I can guarantee some a-hole GQP President doesn’t invade Iraq for the third time. I can guarantee that he will die someday, hopefully sooner rather than later. Can’t promise his successor won’t be worse.
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber:
Why would it be a problem for them? They’re both able to buy Russian oil, I gotta believe they can buy Russian wheat. And Ukrainian wheat, from Russia too, of course.
Andrya
@YY_Sima Qian: It’s OK to construct artificial islands if you use landfill?
It’s OK to make outrageous territorial claims if previous governments of your country have done so? By that standard, the United States would be justified in invading/annexing Cuba and most of Central America.
Your moral code horrifies me.
Andrya
@topclimber: How can you expect Ukraine to make concessions when there is NO WAY to hold putin accountable to his side of the deal?????
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber:
Alison Rose is right to ask what you’re smoking. The Ukrainians will not accept this outcome: they’re going to want back their territory. The choice for you (and for us) is: are we going to support the Ukrainians, or not?
topclimber
@Andrya: Or taking the Panama canal.
topclimber
@Chetan Murthy: My bad. That “turns” should have been “turn,” which agrees with the rest of the grammar about what Putin thinks he can do, not necessarily what the world lets him. If you followed the argument at all, it had to do with a rationale that might convince him to open up the Black Sea for humanitarian shipments.
Is see, too, that I was unclear that his faux humanitarianism would be for those getting the grain, not for Ukrainian farmers.
FYI while on BJ the only thing I smoke are the butts of the few I find overly self-righteous or criminally dumb.
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: Did I say the Chinese claims are OK? I laid out the historical genesis of the dispute, & the historical & current dynamics. Otherwise I am not sure you even know what you are actually criticizing.
OTOH, what scale of landfilling do you think is acceptable? Clearly you don’t have an issue w/ activities by the claimants from the 80s – 00s. Or is your standard that anything China does must by definition be bad, nothing the other claimants do can be because they are the weaker parties?
The UK & the US did a lot of landfilling to the Chagos Islands to turn it in to a military stronghold (Diego Garcia), even expelling the original inhabitants to Mauritius to do so. Japan made an artificial island out of Okinatori rock out in the middle of the Pacific, & then went on to enforce a 200 nautical mile diameter EEZ around the “island”. Have you heard one peep from any US administration about that?
What do I criticize of Chinese claims in the South China Sea? They are preposterous, but the claims of the others are not really much better, beyond the standard EEZs (which are not territorial waters) allowed by UNCLOS. What do I criticize of Chinese policies in the South China Sea? Being deliberately vague about the nature of the “Nine Dashed Line” claims (China is not really claiming the enclosed areas as territorial waters, & is not enforcing it as territorial waters) or the nature of the artificial islands (China is not quite claiming 12 nm territorial waters around these “islands”, not enforcing them that way). This deliberate ambiguity is to create uncertainty & increase Chinese leverage in regional jockeying, but IMO ultimately self damaging.
I do sympathize much more w/ the Chinese & Global South view on “innocent passage” through EEZs.
Citizen Alan
@Alison Rose :
I am very proud of the fact that I knew to hate the DSA long before they came out as pro-genocide.
Andrya
@YY_Sima Qian: “Clearly I don’t have an issue with claims from the 80’s- aughts”? I said nothing whatsoever about those claims.
I am extremely critical of the expulsion of the people of Diego Garcia and nearby islands, and will do anything I can to promote their return.
As far as I know, Japan did not ram any fishing boats while declining to rescue the crew.
I’m getting the impression that you are a troll for the Chinese government.
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: & why are the original claims by the Qing Empire outrageous, or more outrageous than the claims of the others? The French, the British & the Americans were not claiming the Spratlies for their colonies when the Qing Empire made the claim, & the islands had no inhabitants. “Terra Nullis” can be claimed, at least at the time. Distance from the mainland is not a factor. The entire rationale of Japan’s to the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands was that it was “Terra Nullis” when the Japanese Empire claimed them at the end of the 19th century, even though Japanese internal documents at the time recognized that the group was already claimed by the Qing Empire.
It was not the claims over the Spratly Islands that were outrageous, it was the inability of Qing/ROC/PRC to consistently exercise sovereignty over Spratly Islands that made the Chinese claims tenuous at best. The “Nine Dashed Lines” were/are outrageous because there is no historical or legal basis for the ROC to draw such lines, not did it or its successor have the means to enforce them.
Which territorial dispute in the world is not based on historical claims? Until they are resolved one way or another (amicably or not), they will continue to be disputed. The entire Sino-Indian dispute in the Himalayas are based on the mismatch in the borders that the Qing Empire drew for Tibet, & the borders that the British Empire drew for its Indian colony. History is full of greys, complexities & messiness, & most do not afford the kind of moral clarity you seem to crave.
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber:
*cough* *cough*
Dude, you’re no different than Noam Chomsky: Ukraine must suffer, Ukrainians must suffer, so that others may enjoy a quiet life, and some may enjoy wealth and comfort. By this point it’s well-established that the Ukrainians in the Donbass and other Russian-occupied territories are living pretty awful lives, lorded-over by gangsters in failed states. And the Ukrainians caught in newly-conquered areas are being treated horrifically. The mere *idea* that you’re willing to consign them to this, in some vain hope of liberating wheat exports is ……
Ghoulish.
Really, go find your moral compass. Oh, and as I said: remember that Ukraine decides when the war is over, not us. And last: as I think either Alison Rose or Andrya said: there’s no evidence that *anything* other than getting his fucking head stove in, will convince Putin to not do this again in five years. Or to another European country — one we’re a NATO ally of — in five years.
Think on THAT. And stop being criminally dumb.
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: Since you have resorted to ad hominem, I am just going to disengage. Have a nice day.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy:
Gin & Tonic
@topclimber: Ukraine should just learn to lie back and enjoy it, right?
Asshole.
debbie
@Chetan Murthy:
Putin doesn’t need buffer states from the West; it’s the West who needs buffering; who knows what idea may next occur to him? First, it’s NATO attacking him, now it isn’t, now it isn’t, etc.
topclimber
@Gin & Tonic: What YY_Sima said at #102.
Geminid
@Andrya: With all respect, I don’t think the commenter is trolling for the Chinese government.
By the way, have you read The Deadly Embrace: Hitler, Stalin and the Nazi-Soviet Pact (1988)? Anthoney Summers and his coauthor deliver a gripping account of the diplomatic process that culminated in the signing of the Ribbontrop-Molotov treaty, setting the stage for the Second World War.
The book is based on the extensive research they did for a BBC documentary, and covers the period from the Munich agreement in 1938 to the first weeks of the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941. The portraits of the politicians involved- Chamberlin, Daladier, Polish Foreign Minister Beck, Hitler, the reclusive Stalin and others- are fascinating.
A pivotal event was a small dinner party held at a posh Berlin restaurant in July, 1939. The participants were a senior German Foreign Ministry official and a lower ranking official on one side, and a Mr. Astyakov and his second on the other. Astyakov had a middle rank at the Russian embassy, but he was known as Stalin’s man. When Astyakov told his German counterpart that there was no reason why all issues between the two countries could not be resolved, Hitler understood that the road to an agreement with his arch-enemy Stalin was open.
topclimber
@Chetan Murthy: Well, I don’t know if you have characterized Chomsky correctly, but you sure missed the mark with me.
Freeing up wheat exports helps Ukrainians, even if it is promoted by actors who don’t give a damn about them. It also keeps other people from starving. You do know where most of this wheat goes, right? It isn’t to shave 10 cents off a loaf of bread in the US.
Maybe Ukraine wins on the battlefield this year, or next, or next. Short of taking the war into Russia, which NATO has vetoed when it comes to every weapons system they have supplied, I don’t see them expelling Putin’s army from every inch of Ukraine. I hope I am wrong.
I have never said terms should be dictated to Ukraine. You must have me confused with another straw man. I do believe any and all avenues to a negotiated settlement should be encouraged, because that is how most wars end.
In the meantime, intermediate steps like even a partial lifting of the grain embargo might help promote other ones, like an international accounting of Ukrainians deported to Russia. Probably not. On the other hand, enforcing a party line that only war is the answer does nothing to help a blasted Ukraine recover.
As is often the case with the overly self-righteous, you have let your superior morality get in the way of reading what the target of your rant actually has to say. If you have family in the war zone or in exile, I am sorry. If not…pfft.
Gin & Tonic
@topclimber:
You @71
What is that if not dictating terms? In fact, this is what russia achieved in 2014, and did nothing to stop them from engaging in the current genocide.
My neighbor breaks into my house with a gun and a bomb. He says “I’m going to kill you and then my cousin will move into your house.” I say “I don’t think so.” He replies “well, then, I’m going to blow up the house and burn down everything on your property.” You come along from the next town and say “maybe you should just let him live in your spare bedroom and only sell off half your stuff.”
And yes, in case it needs repeating, I have family and friends at risk, and friends and acquaintances KIA, MIA, and in involuntary exile – some actually *in* my spare bedroom.
topclimber
@Gin & Tonic: see 96 if you would. And stay strong for your family.
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber: And something else: thru all your wish-casting for appeasement, you forget that that bastard Putin attacked our Republic in 2016, did it again in 2020, and continues to do it today. You want to give him free license to continue destroying our country.
What we need, is to isolate him and Russia, until their economy falls down in pieces or they depose Putin and dismantle their ops against our country.
This is war, and you want US to lay back and think of England.
No thanks.
Bill Arnold
@topclimber:
Unclear whether your parentheticals are channeling Putin or your personal estimates or both. If they are primarily channeling Putin, then yeah, this is the best move available to Putin and Russia to defuse the anti-Russian anger generated by their attempted use of famine/threats of famine as a geopolitical weapon. Their propaganda isn’t really taking broad root, not for lack of trying. (Lavrov is spinning like a top on this; he’s gonna get dizzy.) It would also be an ethical course of action. (And Russia (and its Navy) would like its Black Sea surface fleet to remain above the surface.)
(The first draft of my first reply to you (#34) was a few paragraphs and included some of this. Thanks for the clarifications in your later comments. Ukraine talks mostly of restoring the pre-Feb-2022 positions of Russian forces, but massive (and stupid) Russian war crimes (continuing) have hardened Ukraine’s position re Russian occupation. Like, to-diamond-hard. Crimea isn’t suffering badly under Russian occupation/annexation, though.)
This wheat crisis is a preview of the turmoil(/famine) that will start hitting hard within the next 5-20 years from an increased rate of random crop failures (and some bumper crops too) (Poisson distribution for any given year or even growing season) due to global heating, combined with whatever other supply disruptions happen. (Maybe sooner.) E.g. India is a rightly scared about the quickly increasing risk of crop failures, at least for wheat (in the North).
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
And by the way, there is plenty of research, some academic and peer-reviewed, supporting this. Effective Russian influence operations are not tin-foil-hat conspiracy material, as many ideologues with badly stuck priors (and well-maintained ignorance) try to dismiss them as.
Sure, we could have a discussion about influence operation apparatuses of other countries, including but not just the US. (China. Saudi Arabia. Israel. Many others.) But Russia is a major player, with long-honed skills and a bigger budget than others.
J R in WV
@Alison Rose :
Maybe you should just pie topclimber, he has nothing of any interest to say to anyone here!
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: Indeed. And this really, really really fucking bothers me. All these people who say “we should convince Russia (using concessions of UA territory and people) to return to peace” or some such, are really saying “we wanna drop all the sanctions, so Russia can start attacking our democracy on the regular again.
Imbeciles! All of them! Moral imbeciles. They should move to Russia if they love Putin so much.
I’m a patriot, and I’m *livid* that Russia attacked us. I wanted for us to expel them from the world financial system since 2016 when this news broke (or, more precisely, when Adam, *ADAM* taught us about it). The idea, the mere *idea* that somehow we should return to the status quo ante Feb 2022, is absolute bollocks.
Russia needs to be made to fucking *pay* so that for the next GODDAMN CENTURY when some Russian wiseguy thinks about attacking a Western nation’s elections, not to speak of attacking a *country*’s territory, he’ll get spanked by his peers until he can’t sit down for a goddamn month.
War For Ukraine Day 141: I’m Going To Answer This Question One Last Time!
[…] based on what I saw when I checked back in this morning a number of you engaged with commenter topclimber regarding his question for me. I also watched topclimber move the goal posts over and over. I was just going to put a note at the […]