Last night until I went to bed and then, apparently, into the small hours based on what I saw when I checked back in this morning a number of you engaged with commenter topclimber regarding his question for me. I also watched topclimber move the goal posts over and over. I was just going to put a note at the start of tonight’s post saying: DON’T FEED THE TROLLS!!!! without specifically calling anyone out. But given Russia’s attacks on Ukraine today, I’m going to answer the comment in good faith. And that is going to be tonight’s post.
Here is the question:
Adam, you deserve great credit for your daily updates. They are comprehensive and most informative.
That being said, I must say you seem to have a blind spot when it comes to diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine War. You may well be right in terms of the overall war–perhaps only a decisive Ukrainian victory will lead to peace, although how this happens without a drawn out flushing of all Russian troops from the country is hard to understand. And how that in turn happens without more megabillions of collateral damage to the Ukrainian economy and without the negative consequences of an extended Ukrainian diaspora is harder still to see.
Rather than engage on the larger issue, I want to focus on a diplomatic solution to the blockade of Ukrainian wheat exports. The two options you put forth are basically aquatic versions of a no-fly zone–i.e. a solution posited on Western military might. This is exactly the approach that, based on prior US adventurism, sours the global South on our leadership.
What I am driving at is that a solution that involved non-Western/Russian powers–perhaps led by China, India,leading African and Middle Eastern countries–might actually have chance to work. These are the folks most likely to suffer from the direct or indirect effects of keeping Ukrainian exports off the market. The US would be better served by promoting efforts of such nations than trying to force its own solution.
Perhaps you have made this point elsewhere. If so, my apologies. If not, why not?
I’ve answered this both in whole and in parts before, but a lot of that is currently unavailable until those working on it figure out how to reintegrate our archives back into the site. So let me take this one bit at a time:
That being said, I must say you seem to have a blind spot when it comes to diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine War. You may well be right in terms of the overall war–perhaps only a decisive Ukrainian victory will lead to peace, although how this happens without a drawn out flushing of all Russian troops from the country is hard to understand. And how that in turn happens without more megabillions of collateral damage to the Ukrainian economy and without the negative consequences of an extended Ukrainian diaspora is harder still to see.
I do not have a blind spot for diplomatic solutions to Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s re-invasion. Rather, I recognize that there is not a diplomatic solution that would actually end Putin’s re-invasion. Right now Putin has stolen and is occupying the Donbas, Crimea, and is attempting to steal the rest of southern Ukraine so he can occupy that too. The Ukrainian’s objective – their war aims if you will – is to liberate all of Ukraine from Russian occupation. They have made it clear, repeatedly, that they seen no point in negotiating because 1) Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that his envoys and negotiators are not negotiating in good faith and 2) Putin has also repeatedly indicated very publicly that his objective – his war aims – are to take and occupy all of Ukraine.
Quite simply, this is Ukraine’s war. It is their defense of their homes, their state, and their society. And they get to determine how things are going to go. They have decided to fight rather than negotiate. They have very good reasons for doing so. Not least among them is any negotiated settlement that is not the result of Ukraine clearly defeating Russia and liberating the Ukrainian territories that Russia is occupying leaves Putin with a partial victory. A partial victory that will serve as the basis for him to then get out from under the sanctions regimes, rebuild, and try again to achieve his overall objective.
The other reason I recognize that there is no point in pushing the Ukrainians into negotiating with Russia is because Russia is doing this:
Her mum had her foot torn off after the Russian missile explosion. Doctors are fighting for her life.
— Maria Romanenko (@rommari) July 14, 2022
the difference in half an hour #Vinnytsia pic.twitter.com/pKaOdsXwQm
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) July 14, 2022
From NGO Down Syndrome: "Today, our hearts are bleeding, and our eyes are full of tears because our family of many thousands has lost one of our own… They were just on their way from a speech therapy class, and they just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time." pic.twitter.com/wka5QvEMnP
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 14, 2022
What, pray tell, would you recommend to the Ukrainians they should be negotiating with a genocidal invader that is choosing to target civilians and civilian infrastructure? That makes war on non-combatants. That seeks to cleanse Ukraine of Ukrainians. It is pushing the bounds of naivety to suggest that there is a diplomatic solution to Putin’s war against Ukraine. And that’s me being generous and not just saying its bad faith trolling.
This is the reality that the Ukrainians are facing every day:
More footage. Imagine going about your day and then… pic.twitter.com/ur7XlNel0i
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 14, 2022
Mykolaiv was also attacked today. There too, the attack was once again on civilian targets. Mykolaiv was fortunate to see only infrastructure destroyed:
Mykolaiv was attacked by 9 missiles today. No victims for luck. russian Terrorists destroyed hotel, 2 schools, trolley buses, central stadium… pic.twitter.com/Zammvcj61q
— Віталій Кім / Vitaliy Kim (@vitalij_kim) July 14, 2022
Let’s take the next part:
Rather than engage on the larger issue, I want to focus on a diplomatic solution to the blockade of Ukrainian wheat exports. The two options you put forth are basically aquatic versions of a no-fly zone–i.e. a solution posited on Western military might. This is exactly the approach that, based on prior US adventurism, sours the global South on our leadership.
What I am driving at is that a solution that involved non-Western/Russian powers–perhaps led by China, India,leading African and Middle Eastern countries–might actually have chance to work. These are the folks most likely to suffer from the direct or indirect effects of keeping Ukrainian exports off the market. The US would be better served by promoting efforts of such nations than trying to force its own solution.
I’m not suggesting an aquatic version of a no fly zone. I’m suggesting two legal options under international maritime law for reopening the Black Sea.
As for the global south, they have more legitimate concerns and grievances than I can list here or would even want to list here, but they’re not going to assist us in regard to Ukraine no matter what happens. Putin is going to sell them oil and natural gas at a discounted rate to keep his coffers full. He will also sell them stolen Ukrainian grain, but only after he drives them to the brink of starvation, creates a refugee crisis, destabilizes their states and societies, and is then able to extract concessions from them that will extend his sphere of interest into their states and societies in order to help re-stabilize them. Or from their new dictators.
The PRC entered into a strategic agreement with Russia back at the beginning of February. A careful reading of that agreement indicates it was heavily weighted in China’s favor. This is because Putin needs Xi much more than Xi needs Putin. This places Xi in the position of becoming Putin’s krysha. Xi’s strategic approach is the game of go. The Belt and Road Initiative is one big application of go through the use of economic, financial, and legal power in service to intelligence and informational power, all subsumed within diplomatic power. Just the name – Belt and Road – immediately brings to mind the geo-spatial encirclement that is at the heart of the game of go. Xi, by bringing Putin’s EAEU in line with the BRI, has basically done two things: a) Xi has captured the the EAEU by encircling/entangling it within the BRI and b) Xi, by doing so and by backing up Putin, XI gets access to the influence networks that Putin has developed for influencing the US and EU. The white Christian outreach, the neo-nationalists and separatists, the hard left of democratic socialists, etc. These are networks that are much harder for Xi’s people to penetrate and the targets are much harder for Xi’s people to cultivate. Guo’s success notwithstanding and largely the result of the fact that Bannon can’t recognize when someone is running the con on him rather than Bannon running the con on others.
The PRC is getting everything it wants from both this agreement and from Russia underperforming in Ukraine. Sure, there’s an increase in regional and global chaos, which freaks out the PRC leadership for cultural reasons, but they are right now positioned to come out of this in a much stronger position regarding Russia than when they signed the strategic agreement back in February.
India has made it clear it is going to sit on its huge grain surplus. I suspect there are two reasons for this. The first is that Modi is hedging to make sure he doesn’t have a food shortage crisis on his hands in India. The second is that Modi thinks it’ll give him a strategic advantage, not to mention a hefty profit, if he can step in at the last minute with grain sales to states on the brink of famine.
Saudi Arabia is not going to do anything to help. Just last week I covered the reporting that Saudi is negotiating to buy stolen Ukrainian grain from Russia. But they’re also not going to help because Mohammed bin Salman has had a relationship with Putin that goes back at least to 2014. From 60 Minutes (emphasis mine):
Scott Pelley: Do you think Mohammed bin Salman fears you?
Saad Aljabri: He fears my information.
Saad told us his information includes a 2014 meeting between Prince Mohammed and the then head of intelligence, Mohammed bin Nayef. It was three years before the coup. Saad claims the young prince boasted to Nayef that he could kill the sitting king, Abdullah, to clear the throne for his own father.
Saad Aljabri: And he told him, I want to assassinate King Abdullah. I get a poison ring from Russia. It’s enough for me just to shake hand with him and he will be done.
Scott Pelley: A poison ring from Russia?
Saad Aljabri: That what he say. Whether he’s just bragging or, but he said that and we took it seriously.
By “we,” Saad means Saudi intelligence took it seriously. The alleged threat, he says, was handled within the royal family. Saad told us he watched the meeting on a video recording.
Scott Pelley: Does this video recording still exist?
Saad Aljabri: Yes. I know where it is now. I know there are two copies of that. I know where they are.
I trust I’m not going to have to answer this again!
Very briefly, here is President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video below followed by English language transcript (emphasis mine):
Today I am addressing not Ukrainian men and women, as usual, but our partners. Democratic world.
This day once again proved that Russia must be officially recognized as a terrorist state. No other state in the world poses such a terrorist threat as Russia. No other state in the world allows itself to destroy peaceful cities and ordinary human life with cruise missiles and rocket artillery every day.
As a result of just one missile attack on our city of Vinnytsia, 23 people were killed. Three children under the age of ten. And this, unfortunately, is not yet the final number. Debris clearance is ongoing. Dozens of people are listed as missing. Heavily wounded are among those hospitalized.
One of the missiles destroyed the Neuromed medical center. There were people inside. Nataliya, she is 40 years old. Tetiana, she is 32 years old. Volodymyr, he is 61 years old. Vira, she is 55 years old. I saw them among the missing. You see, it was not even known what happened to the people who simply went to the medical center…
And if someone launched a missile attack on a medical center in Dallas or Dresden, God forbid, what would it be called? Wouldn’t it be called terrorism?
A girl is among the dead today in Vinnytsia, she was four years old, her name was Liza. The child was four years old! Her mother is in critical condition…
Russia ended the girl’s life just at the time when a conference on Russian war crimes was taking place in the Netherlands, in The Hague. A conference where it was decided what should be done to ensure that every Russian military is punished.
Can you think of any other terrorist organization that would allow itself such audacity? To kill just at the moment when its previous crimes are the subject of international discussion.
Russia has thus shown its attitude to international law, to Europe, and to the entire civilized world. After that, no one can have any doubt that a Special Tribunal on Russian aggression against Ukraine is needed as soon as possible. Also, a special compensation mechanism must be implemented as soon as possible, with the help of which all Russian assets and funds in all countries of the world must be confiscated and aimed at compensations for the victims of Russian terror.
It is absolutely necessary to implement as soon as possible such restrictions against Russian energy exports, which will not allow terrorists to cover their costs at the expense of the international community.
And I want to emphasize: all this is needed not only by Ukraine, not only by our citizens, whose lives are under threat of Russian terror. This is needed by all of you, everyone in the world who values human life at least a little.
Terror is a virus. And if one of the terrorists goes unpunished, it only encourages others.
The ceremony of awarding our defenders upon whom the title of Hero of Ukraine was conferred took place this morning in Kyiv. I presented the Gold Star Orders to our warriors, as well as to the relatives of those warriors who were awarded the title of Hero posthumously.
In total, during the full-scale war since February 24, the title of Hero has been awarded to 157 Ukrainians, 75 – posthumously. More than 23,000 of our defenders have been awarded state awards, more than 3,500 – posthumously.
Hundreds of thousands of our warriors hold back the Russian onslaught every day and every night. Ukrainians make one of the most significant contributions in history to the the fight against terrorism. And we are grateful to everyone who helps us. To every state, international structures, public associations around the world, conscientious business, every person who cares.
But the time has come for the democratic world to enshrine all this in proper legal instruments. The status of a terrorist state for Russia. The special tribunal on Russian aggression. The special compensation mechanism that will direct the funds of the terrorist state to those whom it wanted to destroy. And, of course, new sanctions for terror. New sanctions are needed as soon as possible.
And finally. I want the crew of the vessel, which fired the Kalibrs on Vinnytsia today, to know for sure that prison is the best thing they may face.
Eternal memory to all victims of Russian terror!
Eternal glory to each and every one who defends a normal peaceful life!
Glory to Ukraine!
I’m going to leave it there for tonight before I write something intemperate.
Your daily Patron!
Dogs have no God. But we have a strong intuition and faith in our people. My human says that #russiaisaterrorisstate . And my intuition says that it will not last long. pic.twitter.com/5osEHXG9Mj
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 14, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Тільки так!😠🇺🇦 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
Open thread!
C.R.E.A.M. Open Thread: Jobs vs ‘Recession’
Alison Rose
I admit I fed the troll, and I knew I shouldn’t. Usually I avoid such things, but it’s so hard in this case, because it feels personal. Plus, they were also just stunningly stupid. But you are right, of course, and I’m going to do my best to restrain myself should the situation occur again.
I’m so beyond enraged over the day’s events, over every damn day’s events since russia started this nightmare. And I feel like the world refuses to hear the truth. Zelenskyy’s address tonight is so impassioned and clear, I wonder how anyone who isn’t a genocidal tyrant could fail to grasp the reality. And yet, and yet…
I would also highly recommend folks watch his speech to the Hague (there are English subtitles when he is speaking). There is so much emotion and urgency and power behind his words. I keep hoping one day it will all break through the whining and number-crunching happening in various places.
Thank you as always, Adam. СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose : You’re not alone; mea culpa.
Medicine Man
The NAFO fellas have noted there is a big upsurge of Ruszist trolls and their useful enablers in the last few days. There are lots of people out pronouncing nonsense.
debbie
The world has become overcrowded with evil. This is the best, most compassionate article I’ve read in many years! Thanks, Adam.
Andrya
As always, thanks, Adam.
My late mother was a special education teacher who worked mostly with people with Down’s syndrome. She was quite ruthless/demanding that her four adult children volunteer in her school to help. As a result, I have spent many hours working with Down’s syndrome people and I fully appreciate their humanity and potential. I did not think that anything could make me hate putin more, but your post achieved that.
I don’t see any way to liberate the Ukrainian economy, or mitigate the coming famine, other than naval escorts including ASW. When FDR had the US navy escort British convoys as far east as Iceland, Hitler caved, because he knew he could not risk war with the US. (I will never understand why Hitler reversed course and declared war after Pearl Harbor.) I don’t expect Putin to start a nuclear war over the Black Sea blockade, because he has way too much to lose. But some risk will have to be taken if nuclear blackmail is not going to rule the world.
debbie
@Chetan Murthy:
I could certainly use a troll list.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Well stated Adam
Chetan Murthy
@debbie: It’s hard to know someone’s a troll until you have a couple of interactions where they do the things Adam noted, like moving goalposts. And then …. well, you’ve fed it. Sigh. I should be more disciplined and just limit myself to “do not feed the troll”.
justaboomer
Thank you for your patience in again restating why the Ukrainians are where they are and why there are no diplomatic unicorns.
Sometimes war is the answer to the only question on the exam.
debbie
@Chetan Murthy:
Any way to tie this into the narrative?
Chetan Murthy
@debbie: Ha! http://scienceline.ucsb.edu/getkey.php?key=1041#:~:text=Female%20lions%2C%20called%20lionesses%2C%20are,that%20hunt%20and%20eat%20lions.
Jay
Thank you again Adam.
Ponying out that “negotiating” with Putin is a waste of time, is one of the many best things you post.
debbie
@Chetan Murthy:
They talk a good game, though. //
HumboldtBlue
I read that
headlinepost title in Roy Kent’s voice.Almost Retired
It seems, at least on this blog, that there are two general categories of troll. The first are the ones that make short, drive-by provocative statements – designed to elicit a bunch of “fuck yous” and other intemperate responses. These trolls are mostly harmless and slapping back can be kind of fun.
The other category of BJ troll is the more sophisticated one: The initial posts are longer and ostensibly thoughtful and reasonable on the surface. But they contain an opinion or observation that is on the outer edge of good faith-debatable.
So that initially draws a non-hostile response — a correction, a polite disagreement, etc. And then the original poster claims to have been misunderstood, and shifts the debate to increasingly more preposterous propositions. We take the bait, for awhile, until more and more of us recognize the bad faith of the original poster’s intent and disengage.
I’m not very good at identifying the second category of troll from the first category until we’re deep into the debate. But a “fuck you” from G&T midway through the comments is a helpful guidepost.
featheredsprite
I don’t think that either Russia or Ukraine is likely to ask Adam (or us) for advice. Philosophical questions can make for interesting conversation but will do little to influence the course of events.
Guns and money are more likely to be effective.
Jay
@Jay:
Pointing not ponying.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I read an interview with one of the Ukrainian negotiators when they tried having talks and this woman maintained the Russians themselves don’t even know what they want so there is no starting place to work a compromise. Putin really comes across as the soul brother of Donald Trump because Putin is so lost in his own bullshit he doesn’t know what reality is anymore and countless thousands are dying as this dotard blunders about.
Ohio Mom
When Russia first invaded and I hadn’t had many nightly tutoring sessions I too thought, “Can’t this be negotiated?” It’s a naive question and I was naive.
But I quickly saw that was not in the realm of the possible, at least if and until Russia was beaten far back and ready to surrender.
I also went through a period of deep fear that World War Three was going to get much, much hotter and the nuclear annihilation I’d been prepared for in first grade at P.S. 41 (yes, we crouched under our desks) was imminent.
Nowadays I am more or less inured. I can’t see how Ukraine can prevail; everything seems stuck — the battle lines, the level of support the US and Europe will provide, even those sanctions don’t seem to be budging anything, if they were ever anything but for show. I hope I’m wrong, for Ukraine’s sake and the world’s sake. Putin can’t win.
Chetan Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I wish he were a dotard. I think he’s actually an evil man, playing a weak hand, and playing about average. But he knows all the ways he can cheat, and he’s using them all. Like using nukes to prevent adversaries from bringing the fight back to him. Or using food shortages to drive refugees to the West. Or scorched-earth and torture to drive Ukrainians before his troops. Or destroying infrastructure and esp. multifamily dwellings and medical facilities.
He’s prosecuting war OG-style. And that’s why we *must* stop him.
Fair Economist
What I’m seeing leaves me increasingly convinced Ukraine will win. Ukraine is currently using its long distance fire capacity to attack military target (mostly ammo dumps). Very obvious how that’s a help to their war aims.
Russia is using their increasingly precious long distance fires (they are using up their supply and facing improving missle defences) for civilian terror attacks. They’re hitting schools, community centers, and residential buildings, even with high accuracy devices. This is garbage strategy. Almost every attacker in history tries terror attacks but they never work. They can create immense suffering but it just solidifies civilian resolve. If the Russians continue to use their limited long range missles on targets that don’t help them they are going to lose.
Chetan Murthy
@Fair Economist: As long as UA can continue to find big RU ammo dumps to blow sky-high, and esp. ones chock-full of rockets and anti-air missiles, yeah, I agree with you.
My worry is that RU will decentralize those dumps. On the bright side, all the analysts seem to agree that RU simply doesn’t have it in them to manage such complexity as a large network of small dumps. Which, if true, *good*. Imbecile Russian soldiers need to all fucking die.
terry chay
@Medicine Man: Same reason there’s been an uptick in civilian bombings that coincides with the decrease in general artillery they are losing.
The flip side of not being able to negotiate with Putin is that everything he’s done is just words. They’ve threatened to escalate to nukes since the beginning, but with every move they do nothing but kill civilians. Putin can’t do any more than he is doing already. He is at the max and thus his threats are idle and all he has is hope that the West loses their resolve because the inevitable loss in Ukraine and fall of Putin’s Russia is already written otherwise. Every action has a cost that is greater whether that’s with the currency, or with escalation, or raise an army and face a coup.
HIMARS is a great example. Four $2 million dollar systems likely brought the Russian offensive to a complete standstill—it looks like a dozen will turn the tide. These systems are outdates/worthless in our military because they’d be sitting ducks to the air supremacy we’ve enjoyed in every conflict. But here, in a contested airspace, artillery is queen and this form of one is like one playing amongst pawns.
Urban Suburbanite
I’ve been seeing a pretty common narrative in a couple of the Facebook groups I use – that the Maidan uprising was a neo-Nazi coup, and that they savagely attacked the innocent separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. Then something something Azov. I can never tell if this is paid trolling or they’re actually this dumb.
And poking around on Twitter, it looks like a lot of DSA members were not happy with that “call for peace” nonsense.
Chetan Murthy
@Urban Suburbanite:
At this point, such people would have to believe that not merely are all the governments of the West in cahoots to pervert reality, but so are all mainstream news outlets. Maybe some of them are true believers. I mean, there are RWNJs who believe all the tripe Cucker Tarlson spews, too. Who believed everything TFG blasted out. But most, are morally bankrupt and I’ll bet a goodly proportion of them have some *interest* (whether b/c they’re getting paid money, or a psychic wage) in being pro-Putin.
Like all the RWNJs: they see Putin’s war as their own. And they’re not wrong. They’re. Not. Wrong.
YY_Sima Qian
‘@ Adam, You have written several times that the CCP regime is gaining access to Russia’s network for influencing US & EU politics, via the right wing. I certainly understand the logic, but is there actual evidence? At least in the GOP, the prevailing opinion (including Steve Bannon’s) remains implacably hostile to China in general & the CCP regime specifically, tinged w/ both “Yellow Peril” racism & “anti-Communist” anachronism. That prevailing opinion is in marked contrast to their relatively subdued stance on Russia. There is a confluence of values between GOP & Putinism, that I think is absent w/ the CCP Regime. Sure, they all have authoritarian inclinations, but the CCP is avowedly atheist, while the GOP is Christian Fundamentalist; the CCP is pro-science & recognizes & engages w/ reality, the GOP is anti-science & prefers to live in their own imagined reality; the CCP is pro-state intervention in the economy, while the GOP is anti-state (other than the national security state, & prefers the state to promote conditions for kleptocracy & crony capitalism); the CCP is extremely paternalistic & does not hesitate to sacrifice individual rights & desires (or those of small minorities) for the perceived betterment of the whole, the GOP is nihilist that only seeks to advance the parochial interests of the “in-group” while suppress that of everyone else.
Based on my reading, the CCP regimes tends to cultivate lower level officials at the municipal & state levels (through junkets & paid-for visits to China), as well as leaders of large corporations (through access to Chinese leadership & profitable deals), so that they are more likely to advocate positive relationships w/ China, particularly as they climb the career ladder. These kind of activities are generally carried out by both the official state apparatus & the CCP’s external facing United Front department, both of which operate in the open. As far as lobbying efforts go, the PRC has nothing on the pros such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, etc. I am not aware of accusations where Chinese intelligence sought to obtain kompromat on American officials & leverage that to achieve specific quid pro quos in policy. Chinese intelligence tends to use such methods to develop sources to obtain technology & secrets, not political influencing operation that I am aware of.
I suppose any impact will take years to take effect. If we see the GOP slowly start to change course & start to praise the CCP Regime for its illiberalism, as well as advocating passivity in face of aggressive Chinese actions, then we can surmise China is actually taking advantage of access to Putin’s network.
terry chay
@Chetan Murthy: They can’t decentralize those dumps because their military structure (and therefore logistics) is necessarily centralized to support its corruption. Even if you wave a magic wand to get rid of that, they’re still tied to trains which are centralized, immovable targets by design.
What they can do is move their logistics train > 70km. Of course the last time they had a logistics train that long it was when they invaded Kyiv so we sort of know what will happen there… only worse for them because Ukraine has adapted and now has more accurate NATO munitions (and the ability for resistance in occupied areas to supply them with the intelligence to use it effectively). Plus, even if that were to somehow work, the US would just okay munitions for the HIMARS that reaches 150km. This sort of incrementalism is something our country is good at: we gave them HIMARS under the condition that they don’t target into Russia and they’ve shown effective use of it and have honored that, so if the strategic/logistical system changes, the US will see that and the Ukrainian Army has shown they adapt fast.
The solution to HIMARS is to establish air superiority and hunt them down from the air. That’s why Russia was caught begging Iran(!) for drones. If Russia were capable of doing that, they would have in the opening of the war. It only took the US 24 hours to do so against a much more capable air defense 30 years ago (Iraq, Desert Shield/Storm).
Two weeks to get trained on HIMARS! A month to have enough capable soldiers to only be limited only by ammunition logistics. By the time Russia decentralizes, Ukraine will be able to target single trucks at this rate. These missiles are $200k. Dirt cheap when you think what they’re taking out. Maybe we won’t see a single strike take out a weeks worth of ammunition, 47 soldiers including one general, but even a truck loaded with ammunition or fuel is a good ROI.
Kattails
Gee, I dunno Adam. Ukraine’s situation is kind of like the old question “If you’re being raped, why not just lie back and enjoy it?” “Stop struggling and it will be easier for you.” That kind of thing.
I mean, rapists are well known for their thoughtfulness; always willing to let you negotiate for your rights. Especially if you end up knocked up, you’re sure to be cared for and will eventually realize that it all has its benefits….
even if you’re 10 years old…
Sorry, I’m conflating the comments here with some of the bullshit flying around the abortion debate, like rapists getting parental rights or the 10 year old realizing the benefits of having the baby. The mindset of a lot of people is really getting on my nerves lately.
Chetan Murthy
@Kattails: Given that RU is using rape as a weapon of war, and yesterday’s reports of 25 women penned into a rape dungeon, with 9 of them becoming pregnant during their captivity, it’s only natural.
Chetan Murthy
This was saddening. And I can’t say she’s completely wrong.
Chetan Murthy
oh joy. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-grain-deal-emerges-us-aims-ease-concerns-over-russia-sanctions-2022-07-14/
The Pale Scot
It’s all a bet that RU government will fold before The West runs out ammo to send.
Putin can’t retreat for all sorts of reasons. The West has focused on air power to the detriment of artillery. Until I hear someone talk about ramping up production….
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I think that is a good deal. Russian food & fertilizer exports were not being sanctioned anyway, & my understanding is Putin had ordered reduction in Russian food & fertilizer exports to further exacerbate the food crisis he has manufactured. If the deal make available both Ukrainian & Russian food production to the world market, it is an unalloyed good! It would also represent a failure of Putin’s hostage taking.
Frankly, I am shocked that such a deal is even considered feasible, as I would have thought Putin would hold out for more tangible concessions before relenting. If it does go through, some fences-straddling power (China, India, Brazil, etc.), more than just Turkey & the UN, may indeed have put pressure on Putin, but I had not thought that alone would be enough.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
This is all that needs to be said & pardon my language whilst I say it. YOU DO NOT Negotiate WITH FUCKING terrorists! That’s it, that’s all that needs to be said. Because of course Zelensky is right: This isn’t just war, this is terrorism. Terror bombing was wrong when the Nazis did it in WWII. It was wrong when the Allies did it, ditto. And, as Adam pointed out, it doesn’t work. It doesn’t work on the intended target, and, in this case, at least, it’s making otherwise distant observers very, very mad. Well, the more humane ones at least.
Seriously, I begin to wonder what the end game is here. The Ukrainians will never forget, let alone forgive what Russia has done to them. There is no integration possible at this point. Even the thousands of kidnapped Ukrainians will never assimilate. The victim never thanks the robber, let alone the executioner.
Thank you Adam, for once again putting everything into perspective, in as calm a manner as is possible. Slava Ukraini!
Mildred
Adam, thanks for another great post.
Re trying to reach a negotiated settlement with Russia, isn’t Russia currently in violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons and Russia agreed to respect Ukraine’s territorial boundaries and not to use offensive force against Ukraine?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
It’s because our leaders, unlike the leaders of Ukraine and of CEE countries, haven’t learned the lessons of Ilovaisk: RU pretends to cooperate, gets what advantages they can out of it, and then knifes the other guy in the back; finishes him off with a sliced throat.
Russia isn’t going to let UA freighters out: they’ll sink ’em. And we’re stupid to think otherwise.
Reverse tool order
Not a perfect analogy, here’s how I’m conceiving of this situation: it’s a vastly scaled up domestic violence case and not the first incident. The attacker is acting out the worst, lethal kind of raw entitlement. He’s big and mean but not as tough as we thought.
The attackee is much smaller and much tougher than expected, so the fight is violent and dragging out. Either the attacker is thoroughly beaten or it all happens again. Any little yak-yak during the fight is irrelevant.
I think we prefer the troublemaker not prevail, for everyone’s sake.
Mallard Filmore
YouTube video: https://youtu.be/Zwi7AwF9o_w
channel name: “Joe Blogs”
title: “RUSSIA Passes WARTIME CONTROLS & REQUISITIONS for Industry as Russian Economy STARTS TO SUFFER”
from Reuters article.
YY_Sima Qian
I tend to think that both the Left’s (including parts of the DSA’s) critique of foreign policy convention wisdom (the “Blob”), & everyone else’s critique of the myopia on part so the Left, are often (not always) valid.
The Left is right to gaping holes in DC’s foreign policy conventional wisdom over the past 2 decades: the increased militarization of foreign policy & atrophy of traditional statecraft, the habitual reach for punitive tools to address foreign policy challenges (predilection for military strikes & sanctions), the overspending (& wasteful spending) on national defense, the failure to recognize the changing balance of power, the instinctive claim to moral superiority that is no longer accepted in the rest of the world w/o question, the general neglect & patronizing condescension toward the Global South, & general failure to truly reckon w/ the damage that the US & the West have visited upon the Global South. OTOH, critics of the Left’s espoused foreign policy, & certainly Adam here, are quite correct about parts of the Left’s determined myopia in focusing on the agency of the US & the West, & only the US & the West, & make excuses for all other parties. It is impossible to justify the reckless way Putin sowed chaos around the world, & the genocidal way Putin has prosecuted the invasion of Ukraine. The parts of the Left that refuse to acknowledge & forcefully denounce Putin are indeed acting as useful idiots (at least unwittingly), & discrediting themselves. It is not just parts of the Left that have discredited themselves, but some of the so called foreign policy “Restrainers” (who occupy a broad ideological spectrum, mainly gathered at the Quincy Institute) have done the same.
This is tragic, since I believe the foreign policy conventional wisdom in DC needs to be challenged, that the increased militarization of US foreign policy will ultimately prove ineffective w/ parts of world whose primary concern is not security but development, cause unnecessary suffering in the parts of the world the US employs force, unnecessarily entangle the US into foreign military adventures & make unnecessary enemies, constrain needed domestic social spending & investment, & continue to feed the revanchist rightwing internally.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
I asked myself: when has Putin abided by any treaty obligation whatsoever, since … let’s say … 2014 ? And the answer is: “when he’s exchanged POWs with the UAF”. That’s it. Otherwise, basically, he’s completely unreliable as a counterparty. Why anybody should think this’ll be different is a mystery to me. Before we start giving him any concessions, we need to extract concessions from *him*, so he can learn that there’s a price for breaking treaty obligations.
Giving him something he wants is a mug’s bet. Take *away* something he wants — get his attention — is the way to get him to behave his sorry ass.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
Not everything is America’s fault. And in this case, the bastard attacked us and continues to attack us. We’d be 100% within our rights to flatten fucking Moscow — carpet-bomb them out of existence, and the only reason we don’t is that they have nukes. THE BASTARD ATTACKED MY COUNTRY AND CONTINUES TO DO SO.
Dude, you’re not a troll. But you need to understand that *patriots* do not take kindly being told to make nicey-nicey with OUR FUCKING SWORN ENEMY WHO TRIED TO DESTROY OUR COUNTRY SIX YEARS AGO.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Well, I think Biden is right to at least try. If Putins sinks the Ukrainian cargo ships, then perhaps it will move the needle a bit in the the opinions in the Global South.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
Wish for a pony too: at least you might get that.
I’ll agree with you on this: we *are* reaping the fruits of all the sowing of violence and destruction all over the Global South for decades. When I read about what RU does in UA, I remember what our mercenaries did in Central America: it wasn’t that different, and we knew everything about what was done. Everything. So yeah, I understand why all sort of people outside the West look at us and think: “yeah, they’re gettin’ their comeuppance.”
But as House MD said, “at the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf the wolf really does come and he eats the sheep, and the boy, and the parents.” Putin is that wolf.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy:
I’ve said that already.
There are a lot more to US foreign policy than Putin & Ukraine. Would “patriots” in other countries be justified to launch terror attacks in the US, because the CIA fermented a coup in their country to bring rightwing fascists to power?
Where did I tell you to do any of that?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I quote:
Again I repeat: you are not a troll. But telling people like me that it’s a good thing that my government is rewarding Putin for raping and pillaging, for murdering children, raping women, destroying hospitals, etc, etc, etc, and oh by the way, trying to destroy MY country too, is not going to engender a civil reaction.
And again, I’ll say: we have NO GOOD REASON for trusting that Putin will abide by any agreement for one minute longer than he gets *immediate* gain out of it. At this point he’s *purely* transactional in his foreign policy, at least vis-a-vis the West. And the only reason he isn’t that way with China, is that he needs you far, far, far too much. So sure, you have him by the throat.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
I can go *further* than that. Was Bin Laden justified? Yes, to a great extent.[1] Did that change that he was our enemy, and we needed to hunt him down like an animal? It changed nothing.
Does that make my position clear? I can respect my enemy, while still regarding him as my enemy.
[1] as he wrote once in his youth of his time in Beirut: he hoped that one day, Arabs would be able to collapse the towers of the cities of the West, the places from which the F-16s came, that collapsed the towers of Beirut. Again, I can *respect* this position, without liking it.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: Your position is that we should reward this. Think about it. Think hard.
Jay
@Urban Suburbanite:
Yanokovich and his government seriously “mismanged” Maiden.
There was a long history, ( post Soviet break up and previously”, dividing Ukraine.
Poroshenko and the Rada seriously mismanaged the backlash against pro-Russian groups, after the government changed, in the beginning, but that was enough.
Russia slid little green men and arms in, at the last moment.
That was then, this is now.
it’s Russia vs. Ukraine. No middle ground anymore, no fig leafs.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I want to say again: you are not a troll: you’ve been around far too long and I’ve read too much from you, to believe that. But these opinions are wrong. You’re making some of the same mistakes that “realists” make. You don’t reward untrustworthy counterparties — you punish them until they start acting in a trustworthy manner. Which doesn’t mean they cease to be counterparties/adversaries.
But there can be no negotiation with untrustworthy counterparties. It is incumbent on *Putin* to act to build confidence. And we all know he won’t do that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: In that case, perhaps you should direct your anger to the Biden Administration?
I maintain it is a deal that Biden should at least give a sincere try. If Putin reneges on the deal, then we are back to where we are today. What has been given up? What has been conceded to Putin? Did he get any sanction relief?
OTOH, Ukraine & Russia did manage a prisoner exchange. Should the Ukrainians not have tried to get some of their POWs back?
Personally, I give it much less than 50/50 the deal is actually consummated, & Russia will throw up all kinds of spanners into the works even if the deal is struck, just like the humanitarian corridors to Maruipol. So, no one should have tried to establish humanitarian corridors to Mariupol, even knowing that Putin is untrustworthy? IIRC, some civilians did get out that way.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
You’d have to provide references that Putin’s “humanitarian corridors” weren’t ruses. From what I remember reading, most of them were free-fire zones, and most of the folks who got out did it under their own steam, without any cease-fire from RU. And of course, the ones UA got back from Azovstal were via prisoner exchanges.
Russia does exchange POWs, but there, UA has something RU wants, and badly: their men. That’s very different from this case (wheat) where Russia has other avenues to get it out (just as they’re doing with all the UA wheat they steal).
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
You think I’m not angry about that too?
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: You are indeed clear & consistent, but I don’t think such mentality will result in a better world for anyone.
Also, I fully expect that people will disagree w/ & challenge my opinions & assessments. I am quite sure some of my opinions & assessment wrt China & the CCP Regime are shocking & controversial in these parts. I also hope that I am illuminating some of the time, too. As long as we are engaging in each other’s arguments, that is a productive interaction in my book.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
he’s pointing out that you jaw, jaw , jaw, at the same time you are doing other things,
If the EU, the US and Turkey, for an example, agree no sanctions against Russian agricultural exports, ( there are none right now),
For unhindered Ukrainian agricultural exports,
a win?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Agreed. And as I said, I agree with your assessment of the Global South and their views of the West, and our culpability in that situation.
Doesn’t change that we’re in a fight for our existence with Putin and his horde.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: From what I read, US insurers will not insure Russian ships. Part of this agreement, will allow them to do so, with written permission from the US government. That’s a gift to Putin. Now, if I believed that Putin would allow UA to export their wheat, that’d be one thing. But I don’t believe it: and I don’t think we have any good reason to believe it.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Nope, but nukes arn’t the answer.
Play smart. Most of “the West”, don’t even realize there is an exticential sp) war with Russia for our democracies.
He is suggesting that “The West” gives Pootie Poot some more rope to hang himself.
If Putin holds up his end, win, (global),
if he doesn’t, another win.
Ksmiami
fuck it – might as well go all in aside from invading Russia
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy:
Mariupol steelworks evacuees: ‘We were losing hope that we would ever get out’
From the BBC.
At least 3 groups of civilians were evacuated from Azovstal through the corridors, harassed the entire way by Russian pot shots. Nevertheless, the alternative was for these civilians to be stuck at Azovstal for another month. I imagine the calculations on the proposed food export deal is similar, & w/ the same kind Russian interference in execution.
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: Again. Putin cannot be allowed to win in any form. He wants to destroy Ukraine in its entirety so he needs to be destroyed. There’s no middle ground, no negotiating.
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: and that’s why we need to provide US naval escorts that sink Russian ships one by one.
go big or go home.
l
Ja
@Chetan Murthy:
a) the US is not a big “player” in Marine Insurance and Underwriting,
b) Insurance Companies can say no.
“Black Sea transport, no,
admiral Kuznetzof, hell no,
Then State get’s a swing.
so your shipping co is a subsidary of Putingoon.LLC,……..
Ksmiami
@Andrya: we all need to petition the Administration to send our ships and subs. Putin’s blockade is a literal crime against humanity (as his war) but I mean the blockade is going to hurt the world over.
debbie
@Chetan Murthy:
I was going to pull some of your most inspiring quotes, but there really are so many, so I’d instead like to thank you for expressing your thoughts so well. It’s rare for someone not to set aside their humanity in the heat of argued words. Not even the least of us deserve the treatment others might wish upon them in their pursuit of victory. You and Joe have that in common. Thank you.
Chetan Murthy
Ghouls.
Ruckus
Adam, Thank You.
Very few people like war. The ones that do are completely insane. The old saying, war is hell is to me the very definition of hell. I didn’t have to fight in one but I see the damage from them at the VA. And those are the survivors. But there are dramatically more victims of war than the soldiers that survive. The civilians who live, those that die. And for what? Some asshole leader who thinks he owns everything and everyone and if he can’t have them, own them and everything they own, he will destroy it all. This is not a new concept, it’s as old as man. We have to find ways to stop this absolute crap, and yet I’m sure we never will. We have a political party here in our country that is attempting to do the same thing here, and with force, and likely because their ideal country sucks donkey balls. Asinine restrictions over people’s lives is really not all that different other than the degree to what one asshole is doing to Ukraine.
I don’t have an answer, other than we have to discuss the lengths they will go to and the depths they will sink to own humans. I’m an old fart and I’ve lived a fair bit and what we are supposed to have here is better than it was when I was born. But a segment of our own country is trying to destroy those gains that have made this a better place. And likely for not actually a lot of money, only for the power they think they should have over others. They, like their counterparts in Russia, can’t actually earn respect or anything else, they have to steal it or destroy it. We have to stop them. The correct way.
brantl
I nominate this as a rotating tag line: Sure, let’s just pacify the assholes, it has worked SO well in the past…
Juju
@Almost Retired: the clues you look for here in the Ukrainian war updates as to troll, not troll are the phrases diplomatic solutions with Putin, or negotiations with Putin. If you read anything here in the comments and it has those phrases or concepts, scroll on to the next comment. That’s what I do.
Tony G
Very good answer to that guy. There are “leftists” out there — whether they are sincere or being paid by the Russians I cannot tell — who are saying, in effect, that Ukraine should have surrendered to Russia back in February, and should surrender now. Surrender is what “negotiations” with an invading, occupying army would mean. Ukraine has chosen to defend their country rather than surrender. That decision should be respected.
NotoriousJRT
@Kattails: The mindset of a lot of people is really getting on my nerves lately.
I am SO right there with you.
Robert Sneddon
@Ksmiami: Neat idea but… The Black Sea is bottlenecked by the Turks, no-one gets in or out unless they say so. While there’s fighting going on the Turks won’t allow warships from any nation in or out of the Black Sea. Unless the US Navy can paradrop a Burke-class cruiser or a Virginia hunter-killer sub into the Black Sea from a C-17 then there’s no way US Naval military assets can get in there to do bupkis.
zhena gogolia
@featheredsprite:
What about lawyers?
Anyway, I’m with Adam.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Something worth noting in all this is by all accounts the Russian army has terrible moral with it’s soldiers frequently openly defying their officer’s orders. It’s quite possible these pots shots aren’t policy but more Russian incompetence and enlisted Russian soldiers taking out their frustration on defenseless civilians.
J R in WV
The Pie Filter as implemented by Superstar Developer Watergirl is the best possible end for these trolls. They get to say whatever tripe they want to, and no one has to see or read their tripes, because what people using the Pie Filter get are tiny iconic desserts instead of trollish bullshit.
The troll has to be in the comment thread where you go to imprison them in the pie safe, that’s the only limitation. I put TopShit in there right off last night. I will confess curiosity demands I toggle other commenters’ pie icons to see what’s going on with the Jackals…
Anonymous At Work
Coming in late but how much of PRC and Putin’s alignment is about the PRC getting information, networks, and post-game analysis from Ukraine together for moving against Taiwan?
Dmbeaster
Aside from the troll issue, many people are just squeamish about war, and want to believe that talk will make it go away.
Putin is a criminal. Thinking that you can talk him down is akin to thinking that you can negotiate your way out of a home invasion by an armed street gang.
It is going to take violence, and a lot of it, to crush the gangster. The Ukrainians are willing to do it, so back them. Stop undermining them because your feelings are rumpled by war.
Meanwhile, there is a lot of other evil in the world looking to profit from this new paradigm of Putin aggression. History tells us that when someone is willing to launch aggressive war, civilization just starts breaking down. There is no possible negotiated end unless Putin is dead. Putin will disrespect any treaty and resume violence when expedient. He never gives up, and his long term goal is the destruction of the Ukraine. You will never talk him out of it.
Frankly, a “no fly zone” in the Black Sea in order to protect grain shipments to the world is a great idea.
Johannes
@Chetan Murthy: So, basically us men, then.
Geminid
@Anonymous At Work: I think most nations with sizable military establishments are watching this war and learning what the can from it. The Chinese are no exception. But I think that if they move on Taiwan militarily I think they will wait until they have built up the resources to dominate the air and seaspace around Taiwan. That will take some years, a decade or more. But they are in no hurry.
Chetan Murthy
@Johannes:
In societies prior to harnessing of domestic animals for fieldwork, the vast majority of food was grown by women: hunting brought in relatively few calories. Even once livestock were harnessed for power, a vast amount of the work was done by women. In modern industrial society more and more, the habits of mind of men — violence, anger, inability to control emotions, inattention to detail — make us ill-suited for effective work in complex industrial systems.
So yes: “us men” indeed.
way2blue
@Chetan Murthy: Oh. Does that mean that Russia is taking *credit* for supplying grain (stolen grain) to countries in dire need of it?
Chetan Murthy
@way2blue: It would appear so. Such ghouls.
topclimber
I felt a little bad last nigh inadvertently challenging folks who have skin (e.g. Ukrainian family) in the game, but all this troll BS is a laugh and a half. Just who do you think I am trolling for? I wish for total victory as much as anyone. But if and when that doesn’t happen, who pays the price for the delusion? Hint: starts with a U.
If you are sure Ukraine can oust Russia from its soil, well OK then. If that doesn’t work out, what is the backup plan? A stalemate for a few years? Maybe Ukraine can weather that better than Russia. But unless they are free to strike the Russian homeland, I believe it is advantage Russia with its petro dollars and short supply lines. If the pixies come through and oust Putin, sure, that solves everything too…maybe.
Perhaps Carlo Graziano is right and the Russian economy is about to implode. So, no need for a plan B. If not, all the legitimate talk about Russian atrocities and bashing of anyone who questions the perceived glide path toward victory won’t mean shit.
These are hard truths and not ones I relish. I am happy if I am wrong. We shall see.
One last word: as I have said on perhaps a dozen occasions, it is up to the Ukrainians to make this decision.
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber: What, you’re back for seconds, you fucking troll?
Go read about what Russia does in the areas it controls, to the innocent civilians caught there. Go read about it, you fucking asshole.
Jesus fuck, go the fuck away, you fucking asshole.
Geminid
@topclimber: We all have different definitions of what is a troll. I tend to associate the term with bad faith or deceptive arguments, and I don’t see that with you. I think you are sincere, but wrong.
charon
@topclimber:
Wars do drag on sometimes, but that might be the best possible. This war is existential.
Russia on Ukraine territory is unacceptable as Russia will simply go on to resupply, refit, resume aggression in any foreseeable time frame.