Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address to Ukraine from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Dear Ukrainians! Ukrainian men and women!
On this day, 32 years ago, the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine was endorsed. It was the first document of this kind after many years, which confirmed the right of our people to live independently. Independently and in a democratic way. The specific points of the Declaration reflected the realities of that time and the hopes that prevailed in our society. 32 years later, after eight years of war in Donbas and on the 143rd day of the full-scale war against Russia, it may seem that the text of the Declaration could be different, particularly from a security point of view. But at that time this text was also of a revolutionary character. The Declaration restored the tradition of Ukrainian state-establishing, and it was on its basis that the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine was later adopted. And today, when our people are fighting for independence, we have our right in every sense of the word – historically, politically, culturally and, what is very important – legally. In particular, our people’s confidence in victory is based on this.
Ukraine has withstood Russia’s brutal blows. We have already managed to liberate part of the territory that was occupied after February 24. We will gradually liberate other regions of our state that are currently under the occupation. During such a war, we were able to obtain the status of the EU candidate. We have maintained the stability of public institutions. The power system was rebuilt to work in the power grid of the European continent. All logistical processes in the state – military and economic – were rechanneled. And most importantly, we maintain internal unity, having overcome conflicts and contradictions that had hindered us in the past.
We must all remember the cost of mistakes and discord that made it difficult for previous generations to achieve the results we have today. We must remember how much our people had to go through until it became possible to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. But our time has added one more thing to everything that path strewn teaches. It’s very important. This did not happen before. Never in the past, as much as now, it did not depend on the ability of Ukrainians to be very careful and circumspect in the information field. Even today showed how important it is that we take care of Ukraine and each other in what we say and how we experience this time. How many people were scared today by a fake about a massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine? After everything that happened in the previous weeks. After the Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Chasiv Yar… How many headaches are given every day by the production of horror stories from Russian propagandists and officials… How many problems Ukrainians create for themselves by trusting any anonymous source… This sometimes takes on simply unhealthy forms when social networks and websites deliberately stuff fake information from Russia, the purpose of which is only one – to add media terror to the missile and artillery terror against our country.
Therefore, we also need a kind of emotional sovereignty so that we do not depend on what the enemy constantly launches against you and me. In order not to play along with the media game against Ukraine. To have the power to consciously perceive any information, any messages, no matter who they come from. And to see who needs them and for what, and whether Ukraine needs them in particular, whether they make the path to victory easier for you and me.
Sometimes media weapons can do more than conventional weapons. It is obvious that any missiles and artillery of Russia will not succeed in breaking our unity and knocking us off our path. And it should be equally obvious that Ukrainian unity cannot be broken by lies or intimidation, fake information or conspiracy theories.
We will stand. We will win. We will win back our, rebuild our lives. We will do it together – that’s the only way it can be done. This can be done only without mutual competition. This is our obligation to all generations of our people who fought for our freedom and sovereignty of Ukraine.
I am grateful to everyone who is fighting for the state of Ukraine, who is working for victory and who is defending our people.
Let’s hold on. Only together!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no operational update from Ukraine’s MOD posted today.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
They did not post an updated map for today.
Russia is bombarding Kharkiv with vicious consistency. First attacks begin at 10 pm, followed by rocket strikes on civilian targets at 3 am. Listen to the dreadful sound. pic.twitter.com/1WftX5bgpV
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 16, 2022
BBC Ukrainian has published an interview with Ukrainian Minister of Defense Reznikov. The video, in Ukrainian with no subtitles, is below followed by a machine translation of the interview:
BBC: After the recent strikes on Chasovoy Yar and Vinnytsia, many Ukrainians are asking the question: can Ukrainian air defenses do anything against such attacks?
Oleksiy Reznikov: Let’s be realistic. If our air defense did not work, then, believe me, there would be many times more horror and fear. When I say “many times more”, I mean that 50% of the missiles that fly into our cities are shot down by our air defense.
Israeli experts, for example, will say that they guarantee 80% protection. But not a hundred. Today, there is no 100% protection against cruise and ballistic missiles of a certain type, for example, from the same “Calibers”. Israel’s “Iron Dome”, a very famous defense system, also shoots down a certain type of missile, but not cruise missiles.
Therefore, I would not dare to talk about the fact that it is possible to close the sky one hundred percent. But we are obliged to improve the anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems, and this has already been approved: regardless of when the victory parade of Ukraine over Russia will be, we still need to develop our own anti-missile and anti-aircraft defense systems, as the state of Israel did.
I do not want to compare us with Israel or South Korea, or with other countries that live surrounded by unfriendly neighbors. We will have our own Ukrainian experience.
We thank our partners, they seriously help us. In particular, the announced aid package from the United States refers to two NASAMS air defense systems. But this does not mean that two systems will be able to protect the entire sky of Ukraine…
BBC: What part of Ukraine will these two systems be able to protect?
OR: I am not ready to answer. I am not a rocket engineer, I am a lawyer, a lawyer in the position of Minister of Defense. So I’m not ready to tell you right now.
But I’m a quick learner. I can tell you about other types of weapons that I had no idea about before. And today, for example, I distinguish between MLRS and HIMARS.
And I will learn all about NASAMS in detail. But now I know for sure that this is another important step in helping Ukraine to arm itself and raise the level of our defense.
So imagine for a second that last November the chance of getting a Stinger was zero.
I was personally told during a visit to Washington: “Stinger is impossible, Oleksiy.” Me: “How is it impossible?”. They say: “The law prohibits” – “So change the law” – “Impossible.” This was told to me in November. And already in January, we received the first hundred “Stingers” from our friends from Lithuania with the consent, of course, of the United States.
Today, you and I already have the 155th caliber artillery, we have HIMARS, we already have MLRS, we have different types of armored vehicles.
BBC: Will they provide planes?
OR: I am convinced that it is. It just goes step by step.
All the time I dreamed and communicated with my partners: “Give me anti-ship complexes.” – “Aleksius, this is impossible.” That’s it, the Harpoons are fighting great now. “Give MLRS” – “Alexey, you will be helped to search for (only) Tornadoes, Hailstorms and Hurricanes.” And now – we have the first MLRS, we have HIMARS.
There are two things I still fight for – modern tanks and planes. So far we have not broken through this point. But I am convinced that we will succeed. For me today, the answer “it is impossible” means that it is possible only in the future.
And there will be planes. What are the questions? Because if anyone thinks that F-16s are the solution, then they are deeply mistaken. Our airfields are not ready for F-16, there are nuances. So maybe we need other planes. Not only the F-16 is good. There are other modern standard planes. For example, Swedish-made Gripen.
BBC: In an interview with Time, you stated that President Zelenskyi gave the order to retake the occupied coastal regions of Ukraine, which are vital for the Ukrainian economy, and for this Kyiv is gathering a million-strong army. Could you be more specific about what you meant?
O.R.: Let’s put it this way, there was a little misunderstanding. I did not say that we are gathering a million-strong army. Please excuse my English, it is not my native language.
(Now) let me make it clear: we have a million people under the bayonet in one form or another in the security and defense sector today. I mean the Armed Forces, including territorial defense units, the National Guard, the border service, the national police, the State Emergency Service, the Security Service of Ukraine, as well as the force units of the NABU and so on.
(They make up this) million I’m talking about, not us collecting another million.
BBC: OK, let’s break this statement down piece by piece. Is there a specific order to win back the southern regions?
O.R.: There is a specific order from the president to the general staff to prepare plans for the de-occupation of all of Ukraine, including the territories occupied since 2014. A specific order. And then, from the point of view of prioritization of plans – the military, based on the possibilities, should propose this (plan)…
BBC: So we are not talking about a specific offensive operation, which will begin now?
OR: And we cannot talk about a specific offensive operation, because I am not a general. We agreed with Mr. Zaluzhny that I will not teach him to fight. And the president, by the way, does not teach how to fight. The president sets political tasks, and the military expertly prepares this or that campaign.
BBC: Because there is an opinion that this statement was somewhat political in nature. It was voiced immediately after Putin’s “we haven’t started anything yet.”
O.R.: I never reflect on anyone, and even more so on Kremlin quotes. I say what I think is necessary to convey to society. And when someone there shouts: “Oh, the plans have been revealed!” – why hide the plan that we plan to de-occupy all our occupied lands? We do not hide it. We will reach the internationally recognized borders as of 1991. Point.
BBC: That is, including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk?
OR: Absolutely. The question is the sequence of campaigns and the resource we need for this. And we discuss it with our partners without hiding it at all. They know our plans. And they help us, understanding what and when we need for this or that promotion.
BBC: You say that Ukraine has a security and defense sector of a million people. But literally the week before last, when the whole country was living in a scandal with the alleged ban on men moving without the permission of the military commander, the comments were reduced to the fact that this step is probably due to the fact that Ukraine is experiencing a severe lack of human resources for war…
OR: It was really a communication problem. Lack of communication leads to lack of understanding, and lack of understanding leads to conflict…
There, military lawyers simply did not work enough, and this, let’s say, moment came out. It was taken away, calmly explained, and it is definitely not related to the fact that we lack something. Today, we have a sufficient number of people in the security and defense sector.
What we do not hide – to be as effective as possible, to plan serious counterattacks, we need more modern weapons.
BBC: If there are enough people in the Armed Forces, then why, reading social networks, talking to acquaintances, do you hear that summonses are now being served to a man who went out to smoke under his porch, went to a shopping center or exceeded the speed limit on the road?
O.R.: In law, there is such a concept as executor’s excess. It’s like the proverb about a fool who was forced to pray to God. Each fulfillment center has its own plan. Replenishment takes place in any case. Not on a huge scale, but we have both dead and wounded. Today, we have units that need to rest, restore their combat capability. Accordingly, fresh forces should be brought in. Therefore, of course, there is a certain set.
You have heard, there is a program from the British: 10 thousand of our boys will be trained (before the war – Ed.) in modern conditions and so on. And we are looking for, choosing those who want and who are included in the concept of reserve. Therefore, of course, summonses are still given for specific specialties…
But what is a subpoena? A summons does not mean that you have been drafted into the army. This means: please come to the assembly center. Are you not registered? Let’s check. Maybe you are needed just now – then they have the right to call you up during martial law. Or they will say: “Go, you are in the reserve.” Or: “Friend, why didn’t you sign up?”
There is an obligation, according to the law, if you went from Kyiv to Odesa, you must come there and be registered. Some did not. Someone did not know, and someone specifically did not do this so that they could not find him.
That’s why a person goes – “Good afternoon! Here’s a summons for you. Come – and we’ll check further.”
Sometimes it is done as a punishment for something – for example, breaking the speed limit – I am definitely against that. I think this is complete nonsense, because serving the country and defending the country – this should definitely not be a punishment.
BBC: You mentioned the losses that the Ukrainian army is currently suffering. At the beginning of June, Mykhailo Podolyak said that it was about 100-200 dead a day, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said about a hundred dead a day. Do you have data on the scale of the losses of the Armed Forces?
OR: I have the data, but I cannot make it public so as not to give details to the enemy. I can say that they are significantly different from the huge losses of the enemy.
The biggest peak of our losses was in May. When Mykhailo Podolyak and the president spoke in June, it was they who were meant.
Then the advantage of the enemy was the greatest, especially in the Donbas direction – they used up to a thousand artillery shells per hour. It was intense pressure, and we didn’t have the opportunity to respond to them: we didn’t have that many shots. In the month of May, unfortunately, up to a hundred boys and girls were killed, and up to 300-400 were injured.
Fortunately, after we gradually began to change the picture thanks to the 155-caliber weapons… First went the “Triple Seven”, or “Three Axes” as they are called (M777 howitzers), then went the M109, “Caesars”, Panzerhaubitze and so on – and this specifically changed the situation.
Counter-battery fighting immediately reduced the intensity of the fire.
And when the well-known HIMARS arrived – you know, when we definitely, very clearly get into their warehouses and command centers – it begins to change the picture of the battle very significantly. And I have hope for additional HIMARS, additional M-270 MLRS, three of which have already arrived and more will come from our partners.
I am not talking about the Black Sea. The de-occupation of Zmiiny Island is by no means an act of goodwill, they were on their heels from there.
BBC: Even now, when you say that the picture on the battlefield has changed, is Ukraine ready for long, long years of war?
OR: This is a good difficult question. And it’s not for me. This is a question for every Ukrainian. Are each of us ready for long, long years. I will tell you honestly: for the first three weeks after the invasion, I don’t remember where I slept and how much. I (remember) constantly changing my location due to security measures: sometimes in the bunker, sometimes not in the bunker, sometimes in the study, sometimes not in the study.
But somewhere on the 21st day I felt that I might expire, that I am exhausted mentally, emotionally, that I do not sleep, there is no recovery of my batteries. Then I spent two days of psychotherapy with myself. I’m a Gemini, it was easy for me to split. And I said to myself: my friend, this is not a sprint or even a steeplechase, this is a real marathon.
I realized: every time I woke up, the first thought was “what’s on the phone?”, and the second – “when will it all end?” That is, the psyche said: it will not be long, two or three days, and everything will be over, we will return to the state of hybrid war, which we are used to. To the state in which we have lived for the last eight years: when there is a war in Donbas, and everything else is like a peaceful life.
But I said to myself: “No, friend, accept that it will never be the way it was. It will be somehow different. And we have to be winners in this “different” way. Therefore, accept that this is a marathon, and that you have enough time to run the last 195 meters, you have to stretch your energy resources for 42 km.” And from that moment on, I forced myself to sleep at least four hours a day. And today I live in marathon mode.
Ukraine must understand that the war is not over. And even the now deoccupied Kyiv region, Chernihiv region, Sumy region, and Vinnytsia, to which Kramatorsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa were flown in today – we live in a state of serious war. And those who joined the party of “those who ended the war” are absolutely wrong. We must learn to restore our economic resources, pay taxes, work in a state of war.
BBC: At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said at the “Big Seven” summit that the end of the war by the end of this year is real…
OR: It is real, if our partners will continue to help us, having absolutely no doubt that they are helping the winner. They used to believe that we would end up in defeat, that we would surrender Kyiv in three days, and that is why they did not help us much, only supported us.
But when they believed that the victory of Ukraine is an absolutely realistic plan, they wanted to become accomplices of this victory. Therefore, it is now important that we synchronize our plans for a counteroffensive with their help, not only with weapons, but also with the continuation of even more serious sanctions (against Russia). This is a serious global project.
BBC: So the end of the war by the end of this year is not a figure of speech? OR: It is absolutely possible. I can say this, even though I am a lawyer, but who already communicates a little with the military. Even from a military point of view, this is an absolutely realistic plan – the liberation of at least our territories as of February 23, 2022.
BBC: One of the aspects of the conflict that is currently unfolding in connection with the letter of Ms. Victoria Spartz to the White House is her statement that Ukraine does not have a system that would allow tracking the fate of the weapons that America allocates to Ukraine to fight Russian aggression…
OR: I don’t think there is any conflict. This is the personal opinion of one person who, unfortunately, does not quite have the facts.
BBC: Well, if only Spartz, which really may not be quite in the material. But the Financial Times also wrote the other day that there are suspicions of smuggling (weapons supplied to Ukraine)…
OR: I read this article carefully. Everything is very simple there. As a lawyer, I did not find any facts, concrete accusations with clear examples there. Not only that – there is not even a link to any clear source there.
As the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, I will tell you that this is not the first time I have encountered the so-called IPSO, which is launched by our Russian enemies, a terrorist country.
For the first time, this was done on the CNN channel, when a former classmate of Putin’s, and now an “oppositionist” who lives somewhere in Washington (meaning Yuriy Shvets – Ed.), says that there are some doubts about the use of (Ukraine’s) weapons, humanitarian aid and so on. After that, an interview is conducted with some American military man in Lviv, who says: “Well, I heard something about a humanitarian, but I deal with turnstiles. Well, maybe you can buy turnstiles somewhere.” That is, they mixed weapons with turnstiles and humanitarian aid, which the Ministry of Defense does not deal with at all. The first throws were like this.
I’ll tell you what the next step is. One NLAW that got to the Russians – and this is a war, our guys could have been captured, somewhere some NLAW or something else could have gotten to the Russians – will be shown tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or a week later in some (European) capital, and they will say: “See, Ukrainians are smuggling weapons!”
But this is stupid. I will explain why. First of all, I did not receive any request from any (foreign) official body as the Minister of Defense. Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrskyi did not receive any such request. The Minister of Justice and the Prosecutor General did not report anything similar.
Is smuggling from Ukraine to Europe possible? It is possible. They carry cigarettes. If our craftsmen in the Carpathians even take out a Kalashnikov assault rifle – I believe that it is possible. But, forgive me, (that) they will take out the M777 artillery installation, which weighs tens of tons, or the forty-ton “Crab” – that’s stupid. In addition, this is a modern weapon that has GPS trackers that our partners can easily track.
Secondly, as the Minister of Defense in Ramstein, I say: “Dear colleagues, I am asking you to send your emissaries for control and monitoring. Wherever you want – at least directly to the “front”, see where your installations are working. I will tell you in secret , some representatives of our partners have already done it – looked, and they have no questions.”
The third story. In 2019, we received LOGFAS – the NATO logistics accounting and control system. We have it, albeit in a limited (functional) way. Our universities teach how to use this system.
And now I wrote a letter to NATO through our representation in Brussels: give me more licenses, expand this system, give me more terminals. Except that if we want to bring it to the level of a brigade, we should make its Ukrainian version. That is, we are open to our partners. We suggest using their NATO system together.
Therefore, if suddenly you really see that military equipment is traveling in the opposite direction across the border with Poland, Romania or Slovakia, then it can only be two cases.
Or they are taking something for repair, which they cannot do in Ukraine. Or are these the remains of Russian tanks, “Buks”, “Pantsirs”, which I am taking to an exhibition in Warsaw, Prague, Berlin, or in The Hague, where I want to put the “Buk” installation that we took from the Russians near the International (Criminal) Court.
BBC: Before the war, Ukraine spent approximately 5% of GDP on the defense security sector. What plan will you submit this year?
O.R.: The situation is as follows – and it is absolutely no secret. Today, I spend the annual budget of the Ministry of Defense in a month. There are two main cost lines. The first is monetary support for the military and, unfortunately, payments for injury or loss of a breadwinner. The second is for use. Not all material and technical support comes to us (free of charge), I still buy a lot.
BBC: So what percentage of GDP will you ask for next year?
OR: This is a difficult story, because I will not ask for GDP. I will give a real need. We will sit down with Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko and Prime Minister Denys Shmygal and brainstorm what to do about it. Because in reality, money is a very difficult challenge.
BBC: The other day, Fedir Venislavskyi, a deputy from “Servant of the People”, said that Ukraine is negotiating to supply Ukraine with ammunition for HIMARS with a range of 300-500 km. Previously, it was believed that the USA does not transfer them to Ukraine due to a principled political position. Has something changed now, or did Venislavsky come up with something?
O.R.: How would it be correct to say it? You know, when people’s deputies comment (on issues of security and defense), I always wonder: where do they get all this? Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, with all my personal respect for them, by their status are not participants in the negotiations and are not privy to what is actually happening.
But we do not hide this. When we talked about high-precision weapons, we really said that in order to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, they should have a different range of damage. Of course, we sent all these requests a long time ago, the conversation is ongoing. But definitely, believe me, not at the parliamentary level. This is addressed elsewhere.
BBC: Is Ukraine asking for these missiles?
O.R.: We asked for everything we needed a long time ago. But our partners are assessing the situation – and I repeat: they also hear us…
BBC: Is it true that when HIMARS systems were supplied to Ukraine, they set a condition that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not attack Russia with them?
OR: It’s true, I don’t hide it. We undertook that we will not use high-precision weapons against Russian objects on the territory of the Russian Federation. We have confirmed this everywhere, even I personally did so in a letter addressed to my colleague – the head of the Pentagon – that we will use American weapons to deter the enemy and de-occupy temporarily occupied lands only on the territory of Ukraine.
BBC: Does this ban extend to Crimea?
OR: He asked me exactly that. I said that we have enough strategic facilities in the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russians. To which he replied: we understood you.
BBC: How likely do you think a ground offensive from the territory of Belarus is?
OR: I already made a prediction that I did not believe that there could be a bombing by the Russians, and, unfortunately, I was wrong. Therefore, everything is possible, there is such a risk. But I hope that in this period of time – no, there is no such risk.
BBC: You are also called a possible next prime minister…
OR: Nonsense! There is nothing even close. No conversations. We will not let Denis Anatoliyovych Shmygal go. He is an absolutely balanced manager, he has passed the test of covid, now he is (passing) the test of the Russian war.
In general, I dream of a project that will be trusted and that will not be related to public service. This is my dream.
I think that is more than enough for tonight!
Your daily Patron!
Find the sapper in the photo 😝 #dogs #DogsofTwittter #Patron #Патрон #песпатрон pic.twitter.com/t8LW9l46C5
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 16, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Дякую вам за такі прекрасні малюнки! Усіх лизьнув! 🐶💓
The caption translates as:
Thank you for such beautiful pictures! He licked everyone!
I’m guessing thats supposed to say like not licked, but Patron is a dog, so…
Open thread!
Alison Rose
I think it’s definitely supposed to say “licked” and I don’t doubt that he did.
I can’t imagine the psychological trauma that results from living through this hell, in particular being jolted awake in the middle of the night by fucking missiles. It’s becoming more and more clear to me that the scarcest commodity in russia is a soul.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose : I want us to start taking out Russian ships, then their artillery and missiles and everything else. They are a monstrosity. Time to end them.
YY_Sima Qian
‘@ Adam, thanks for the updates through the weekend & holidays! Do you think the US will at some point life the restrictions on Ukrainian use of HIMARS against targets in Russia? Right now the restrictions don’t matter so much, as Ukraine doesn’t have many HIMARS systems, munitions are precious, & there are plenty of targets on Ukrainian soil. However, at some point, as the Ukrainian Army pushes the Russians back, the Russian rear will be in Russia. The M31 series munitions only have max range of 92 kms, it’s not the Ukrainians will be marching to Moscow w/ it. In fact, Ukraine could use the HIMARS to attack logistics tail to the Izyum thrust right now, parts of it near the border in Russia.
I understand & in act applaud some of the caution the Biden Administration has exercised, but this particular one I never understood.
Alison Rose
@Ksmiami: I get the whole “it’s not NATO/World War III/blah blah” worries, but to me, like…as far as Ukrainians are concerned, this IS World War III and they’re going it alone. Yes, they’re getting weapons and money and such (though nowhere near what they need) but they’re still just one country up against a much larger and more well-supplied one. And I simply cannot understand how people are okay with the inherent cruelty in saying “Well see, if you were in our special club, we’d totally be there, but you’re not, so [shrug emoji]”. Like…if Putin had attacked Estonia (and who knows, maybe he wants to, the maniac), I presume other NATO countries would be hopping to it. It just feels horrid.
Princess
Thanks for this. Really appreciated.
Adam L. Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I would hope so as it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me either.
Dan B
@Adam L. Silverman: The logic seems to be: Don’t anger your attacker. Putin seems to be a bluffer.
Adam L. Silverman
@Dan B: Yep
HumboldtBlue
Ukraine has withstood Russia’s brutal blows. We have already managed to liberate part of the territory that was occupied after February 24. We will gradually liberate other regions of our state that are currently under the occupation. During such a war, we were able to obtain the status of the EU candidate. We have maintained the stability of public institutions. The power system was rebuilt to work in the power grid of the European continent.
The maintenance and stability of public institutions rings hard against the ear as we live in a nation where the erosion of the stability of public institutions grows worse by the day.
Gin & Tonic
It is “licked.” The words licked and liked are not at all similar in Ukrainian.
Adam L. Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: ok, thanks
Amir Khalid
Lest anyone forget:
Today, 17th July, is the eighth anniversary of the day the Russians shot down MH17 over Ukraine. This crime, which resulted in the murder of all 298 people on board including 43 Malaysians, was part of this same war, which began with the Russian invasion of Ukrainian soil that year.
Amir Khalid
@Ksmiami:
With all due respect, that “Kill’em all!” shtik gets old rather quickly.
NotMax
‘@Amir Khalid
OT.
May I be the first to say selamat hari jadi!
Chetan Murthy
@Amir Khalid: OTOH, Ksmiami *does* speak for others. I know my anger at Russia knows no bounds, and like Ksmiami, no amount of devastation wrought against Russia’s armed forces would make me quail.
Carlo Graziani
You know, US TV News may be shallow light entertainment formatted for ignorant cretins equipped from childhood with video game aesthetics, and the “personalities” who appear there may bear the same relationship to journalists that Shiba Inu dogs bear to their wolf ancestors.
But in my view there is nothing more infuriatingly smug, privileged, self-righteously, self-congratulatingly, preeningly truth-crusading than a BBC reporter showing off his or her “truth-to-power” style in an adversarial interview with a government official. What a shit this interviewer is, trying to winkle details of upcoming operations and other matters that any competent journalist knows are obviously highly sensitive. Good to see Reznikov running circles around this person without explicitly calling him/her an imbecile.
YY_Sima Qian
@Amir Khalid: Did Russia or their proxies ever pay damages (even if discretely) to the Malaysian Airlines, the Malaysian government, or families of the passengers? I know it refused to take any responsibility.
Andrya
@Amir Khalid:
Ksmiami is not saying “kill them all”. Ksmiami (with my full agreement) is saying “stop them all” which sometimes, unfortunately, involves killing gullible russian soldiers. Would you disagree with “stop them all” regarding the Wehrmacht in 1938 through 1945? My preference would be to take them all as POWs, ship them somewhere safe (Australia?) and let them come home safely after the Ukrainian victory. Unfortunately, that is not always possible.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani: TBH most of the interviews of Ukrainian officials I’ve seen have been full of WTFery on the part of the interviewer. But yeah, some of the questions here, I was like…….I don’t know shit about any of this but I know not to ask stuff like that.
Amir Khalid
@YY_Sima Qian:
No, not a penny. In fact, they’re still trying to pin the blame on Ukraine.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose : It has been remarked-upon by many that the BBC really declined as a news org, during the reign of the Tories Cameron/May/Flobalob.
Alison Rose
@Andrya: Hey now, don’t let’s bring Australia into this. There’s gotta be a random little uninhabited island somewhere they could play dacha on for a while.
Amir Khalid
@Andrya:
I take it you haven’t seen ksmiami’s other comments.
featheredsprite
Thank you Adam.
And I like the idea that he licked everyone.
Andrya
@Alison Rose : Sorry, I mentioned Australia because during WW2, the British shipped a lot of German POWs to Australia. (I assume that was because they could be decently fed there without being a burden on the Atlantic shipping corridor.) I have nothing but good feeling towards Australians (although, to be honest, Australian is the dialect of English that I have the most difficulty understanding).
Gin & Tonic
@Amir Khalid: With respect, some would argue that the current war did not begin with the 2014 annexation of Crimea and portions of the Donbas, but with the Treaty of Pereyaslav in 1654.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Every RUAF soldier has a choice: they can obey, or they can defect/surrender. Those that obey deserve nothing but hot flaming death. Better that, than even one more innocent Ukrainian child suffers, one more innocent Ukrainian civilian is killed, one more innocent Ukrainian woman is raped.
The RUAF aren’t fighting according to the laws of war. The idea that somehow we should accord them any concern while they bear arms …. is ludicrous. Sure, if they surrender, they deserve all the protection of international law. But while they fight …. fire and the sword.
YY_Sima Qian
@Amir Khalid: Yeah, the misinformation started immediately.
As much as I understand Global South countries’ instinctive skepticism toward anything coming from the West, making them susceptible to Russian shit stirring, it is misguided. Putin really has nothing to offer them other than chaos.
Alison Rose
@Andrya: I’m not Australian so I wasn’t taking it personally or anything :)
(Although…it’s possible I could have Australian relatives. Some of my mother’s family didn’t make it out of Europe in time to be allowed in to the US during the war, and all we know is that a few cousins were planning to make their way to Australia instead. No idea who or if they did or what. It’s always been weird to me to know I could have family out there I don’t know about. Maybe one day 23andMe will match us up…)
Carlo Graziani
@Andrya:
For my own part, I’ll say this: I trust the Ukrainian political and military authorities to calculate their own strategic interests in their war with Russia better than any hothead on this blog. I’m pretty sure that they never lose sight of the fact that they are at war with a nuclear power, and that they set their aims, their weapons requests, and their operational plans in a framework that takes those constraints into account. They are responsible for the lives of 44 million people, and they would never indulge in cathartic “kill them all” bullshit, given those responsibilities.
People with no responsibilities can indulge in that crap.
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: I am struggling to see how your comment is connected to my post.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Oh ha. I thought you were responding to Amir’s response to Ksmiami, but you were not. Sorry.
Adam L. Silverman
Ya’ll need to switch to decaf!
Andrya
@Carlo Graziani: I agree completely. (Actually, I opposed “kill them all” in favor of a results-oriented approach.) My communications with my senator/congress rep are all about “give the Ukrainians what they ask for RIGHT NOW!
Alison Rose
@Adam L. Silverman: It’s only 9:17 here! And I never have caffeine. It’s the devil’s juice.
James E Powell
@Alison Rose :
I know I could live without coffee, but I don’t want to.
frosty
@Amir Khalid: Thanks for that. I pied him because of that bloodthirsty schtik.
O/T I hope you enjoy your SG. It’s my favorite electric but I rarely plug in any more.
Adam L. Silverman
Perhaps a nice soothing cup of chamomile.
Andrya
@Alison Rose : What?!!!! I have always respected your comments, but not this one!!! Caffeine is the ambrosia of the gods.
frosty
@Gin & Tonic: When I read things referring to 1654 I think “How long are these guys going to hold a grudge?” Then after I read Albion’s Seed I realized the US is still fighting the English Civil War (ca. 1600s) between the Cavaliers (mostly Southern aristocratic ideals) and the Roundheads (mostly New England democratic ideals).
Some things have to be fought.
Adam L. Silverman
Warm milk?
Yutsano
@Adam L. Silverman: With nutmeg or GTFO. And again: it’s only 2130* here.
EDIT: note for folks: sometimes you gotta speak their language.
Kent
@YY_Sima Qian: That would be a stupid, stupid, idea. At least at this point in the war. Ukraine holds the moral upper hand right now because they aren’t acting like Russians and committing war crimes and atrocities. If they go down that path and start bombing civilian targets in Russia the “both sides” people will come out in force all around the world to argue against further support of Ukraine.
I don’t think they will run out of military targets within Ukraine anytime soon. Plus there is Crimea, which is also inside Ukraine. Russia has immense military installations there.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L. Silverman: Espresso is the only coffee. Short shot, thick emulsion, roasted within 4 days, mostly Brazil, no sugar, no milk, no fucking syrups, -cinos, or other loathsome and whorish Starbucks corruption.
I have to roast my own to get it done right. A 14g shot is fine after dinner. Fuck decaf.
Alison Rose
@Andrya: Thanks to some health issues, caffeine does a nasty number on me, even in small amounts. Besides, it never helped me much even when I could have it. It didn’t make me feel awake, I’d just be tired but unable to sleep.
YY_Sima Qian
@Kent: Hitting military targets in Russian territory, especially near the official Russo-Ukrainian border, is not stoopping to Putin’s levels. Hitting civilian targets in Russia in revenge of Russian strikes would be. I see no such inclination on the part of the Ukrainian forces, certainly not systemically. Yes, I see posts on Chinese social media claiming Ukrainian artillery strikes against civilian targets in Russian occupied Donbas, but more likely they are the inevitable collateral damage from warfare (due to bad intel, inaccurate fire, poor planning/communication, etc.). That is markedly different from the deliberate campaign Russia has engaged in.
For whatever reason the Ukrainian Army does not appear to have been able to significantly disrupt the logistics support of the Izyum thrust. HIMARS strikes into rear area targets in Russia could be very helpful.
I can understand limitations placed on the use of Harpoons, which I think can strike land targets as well, w/ its much longer reach.
Andrya
@Kent: There are two different issues here. Of course the Ukraine military should not start bombing/strafing russian civilians both for moral and strategic reasons: to do so would be immoral, and also because bombing civilians has no real effect on the outcome of the war. (Hitler’s decision, in 1940, to switch from bombing RAF bases to bombing British cities was a huge strategic blunder, and quite likely enabled the UK to continue the war.)
That said, the US embargo that Ukraine cannot attack MILITARY targets in russia is disempowering, wrong, and ridiculous, and has to be reversed.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Equipping the Ukrainian Air Force with sub-hunting aircraft would certainly put the cat among the pigeons.
Perhaps in 2023…
Andrya
@Alison Rose : I would never deprecate, only sympathize with, someone who cannot drink caffeine for medical reasons. (I totally lust after coffee, but for medical reasons can only drink tea.)
A friend of mine came up with the theory that the explosion of of democracy and scientific knowledge in the 18th century came about because people stopped drinking “small beer” (low alcohol beer- a depressant) for breakfast, and started drinking tea or coffee (stimulants). I don’t know if that is true, but it makes sense to me.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Absolutely, but ASW takes a long time to master. As poorly as the RuAF has performed in this war, ASW aircraft would be sitting ducks w/o Ukrainian air superiority.
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose : Europe is being really naive here if they think they can hold of Putin using Ukraine as a shield. It’s appalling too that Biden doesn’t start amping up the threats back
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Agree.
Geminid
@frosty: And what about the Battle of Grunwald in 1410? Did the Lizard League tank? Or did the Teutonic Knights scapegoat them?
Andrya
@Alison Rose : putin has said that he wants to restore the boundaries of the USSR/russian empire: that would include Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Poland. All of which are members of NATO or soon will be. We can stop him now, or we can stop him later, or we can let him conquer Europe. The first option is by far the safest.
Ksmiami
@Amir Khalid: I never said that In This case. But the only way to stop Putin is to end his war making ability – no half measures are adequate.
ArchTeryx
@Andrya: ‘Strine, as it’s called, is mostly spoken by their version of rural rednecks. The urbans (and the vast majority of the population of Australia is urbanised) basically speak the Queen’s English.
Though my old mate the SIlver Brumby can do a great bit of ‘Strine just to freak the tourists out. ^.^
ArchTeryx
@Ksmiami: Yeah, the Ender Wiggin solution is the most expedient, but a) Nobody has the power to inflict that short of triggering a nuke-off, and b) Do remember what happened to him after his own solution turned out to work all too well.
Ksmiami
@Amir Khalid: Russia isn’t even fighting a war. It’s a national genocide they are pursuing and should be responded to with the most ferocious force.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Some journal noted an item in the second (I think) aid package we sent Ukraine: one or more unmanned underwater vehicles. The system is fairly new and secret, but it sounds like it has offensive capabilities.
Ksmiami
@ArchTeryx: The Black Sea blockade is illegal and immoral and telling Putin to back off or we will start returning fire is completely within our power. Putin requires mob mentality tit for tat, not fear based responses.
Andrya
@ArchTeryx: I seem to have met a lot of Australian rednecks. Totally great people, all of them, but I had to (frequently) ask them to repeat themselves. Given that 18th/19th century UK used to ship convicts to Australia, my understanding is that Australian dialect owes a lot to very lower class London dialect in the 18th/19th centuries. (And that is not a slam- given the state of UK justice in the 18th/19th centuries, a perfectly upright lower class cockney could easily be sent to Australia.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I have read that. However, my impression is that these UUSVs are meant for surveillance & anti-mine warfare. Any unmanned undersea systems w/ autonomous strike capabilities in NATO (or anywhere in the world) are still under development. No way they send them off to a war zone where they might be captured.
ArchTeryx
@Andrya: Oh absolutely it’s a derivative of Cockney, though at least they didn’t inherit the (in)famous Cockney rhyming slang, which is essentially one long in-joke at everyone else’s expense.
I can do okay with ‘Strine mostly because brumby – yeah, he often refuses to capitalise his name – taught me. But none of the Aussies I’ve known over the years – and I’ve known quite a few! – spoke it except to make fun of it, and they all were city-dwellers or expats.
Kent
What is a “military target”? And who decides? The Russians claim most of their bombing of civilian cities is actually strikes on military targets.
I don’t disagree with the sentiment. But Biden has to keep a very loose and shaky coalition together against Russia. Scenes of dead babies on Russian streets due to Ukrainian bombs (whether false flag or legitimate) is only going to make it easier for opponents to that coalition to gain ground in every European country. And it will also do Putin’s propaganda job for him.
There are wheels within wheels here.
Andrya
@Kent: In countries with a free press (which includes Ukraine but very definitely does NOT include russia) it is possible to distinguish between targeted attacks on civilians and civilian collateral damage due to attacks on military targets.
Ksmiami
@Andrya: Ukraine should have every right to blast away at the Russian military installations from Belorussia to western Russia. If it means fewer Ukrainian kids killed, they have that right.
YY_Sima Qian
@Kent: Ukrainian sabotage teams are already attacking military targets in Russia. HIMARS can attack the same targets w/o risking Ukrainian personnel.
However, you make a good point about Biden needing to keep the more skittish/less enthusiastic partners on boards. Whatever indignation & outrage expressed on blogs, the Biden team has to deal w/ that reality.
There go two miscreants
@Carlo Graziani: Yes, I had a similar reaction to the BBC interviewer. You expressed it quite well!
trnc
When I see stupid questions like that, I often hope that the interviewee would say, “Let me ask you this – what do you think would happen if I gave you this information?” and let the interviewer try to explain how it wouldn’t help the enemy, opponent, etc. IOW, I agree (most of the time) that interviewers should not directly be called idiots, but there should be no doubt to anyone by the end of the interview why these questions are idiotic.
debbie
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ah, the clean light of day. Lest I be thought to have conveyed any tone of dismissiveness in my statement from a couple of days ago about the Global South setting aside any sort of “what’s in it for me as to what they can get out of the specific situation with Russia blockade” in favor of feeding the hungrying masses. And not just in the Global South either.
On the other hand, as an age-old hippie, I’d want to get the people fed and strengthened before enlisting their support in bettering their position against Russia or China (neither easy goals).
I apologize if I was misunderstood.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for the correction. I guess this was wishful thinking on my part.
Turkish President Erdogan is scheduled to meet with Putin this week, in Iran. Reports are that one topic to be discussed is Black Sea grain shipments. The meeting will take place alongside trilateral talks about Syria. I’m not sure if anything will come out of either talks, but I’m curious.
Uncle Cosmo
@frosty:
Just FTR, that reference wouldn’t even get on the medal stand in the European National Resentment Olympics:
And it might not even be good for fourth place, depending on how long the descendants of the erstwhile Poland-Lithuania Commonwealth have been pissed off at everyone around them for dismembering the self-inflicted ramshackle derangement of their polity. (Can you say liberum veto, boys and girls? I knew you could!)
Geminid
@Uncle Cosmo: I learned about the liberum veto when I read James Michener’s Poland. One of Michener’s lesser known novels, but very good and informative.
Uncle Cosmo
@Geminid: I hark back to the liberum veto every time I read that some single Thuglican jackass (looking at you, Random Paulie) manages to hamstring the Senate by refusing consent to proceed to a vote. We need to work out a way to rid our institutions of this sort of horse manure, or else risk going the way of Poland-Lithuania, which was one of the largest quasi-national entities in Europe for two centuries before its dismemberment.
Andrya
@Uncle Cosmo: And an honorable mention to the Scots. I am Scottish on my mother’s side. My grandmother taught me that I should never be friendly to anyone named Campbell- and if ever, by bad luck, found myself at the same table as a Campbell, I should point my knife and fork at them! This was due to the Glencoe massacre of 1692.
YY_Sima Qian
@Uncle Cosmo: The Europeans got nothing on East Asians as far as National Resentment goes.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Can Russia still maintain its position in Syria?
Timill
@Uncle Cosmo: You forgot the Harrying of the North in 1069-1070. Yorkshire has not forgotten…
Uncle Cosmo
@Timill: Wull, OK then, yinz kin take the gold & push the Serbs off the medals stand, but if they start Balkan ;^D yule hafta kick ’em off yerselves. (Narrator: There will be blood…)
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I think Russia can in the short term. The government there looks like it’s on solid footing, unfortunately.
Longer term the Russian presence in Syria may face challenges. They may come out of the Ukraine war with diminished power. Their “frenemy” Iran has a sizeable presence in Syria that complements Russian strength there, but it’s not certain that the current Iranian regime will be running that country five years from now.
One recent regional development that has not gotten much attention is a rapprochement between Turkey and Israel. Neither country is happy with Russia’s presence in Syria, particularly its control of Syrian airspace. Turkey and Israel used to be military allies, and now Erdogan has decided to thaw out their frozen relations. This could have consequences in Syria later this decade.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Thanks! I am not so sanguine that the theocratic regime in Iran will fall w/in 5 years.
Why do you call Russia & Iran “frenemies”? I was not aware of any tension/hostility in the relationship. Russo-Iran ties certainly are more comprehensive than Sino-Iranian ties, which is more focused on trade & investment (dwarfing Russo-Iranian trade), & are balanced & constrained by Sino-Saudi/Gulf States, Sino-Israeli & Sino-Pakistani relationships.
Jinchi
Please stop.
I know this war is infuriating, but waving away concerns about civilian ‘collateral damage’ will not help the Ukrainians win it any faster. The Donbas, Crimea and the Black Sea are filled with more targets than HIMARS can hit already, and there is no magic target in Russia that would end this war.
The US and NATO have given billions in military aid, equipment and intelligence to the war effort with a singular condition. Don’t launch those weapons at Russia. Ukraine has spent a lot of effort building trust with the alliance, and have gotten ever more sophisticated weaponry as a result. It would be stupid to throw that trust away now.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I was looking at the history of Iran resisting incorporation into Russia’s sphere of influence. Also, the communist Tudeh(sp?) party was crushed by the theocratic regime soon after their revolution. That may not be an issue now but I think the Iranians are still wary of Russian influence, despite their pragmatic alliance.
I think that the overthrow of the mullahs is a possibility, while not a certainty. Demographically, Iran is a young country and these younger people may not have the allegience to the regime their parents had, and might resent the strictures the mullahs place on political, economic and social life. And while public polling is not alliowed there is anecdotal evidence that some Iranians oppose their country’s foreign adventures.
It’s a repressive regime. The current President is called “the Hangman” because of his role in the judicial murders of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. There are sporadic episodes of political unrest; in the last big one (three years ago I think) the government ended up shooting a lot of people. They admitted to killing 200, but the opposition said there were over a thousand killed. So there is pressure for change, and the mullahs may not neccesarily be able to keep the lid on it.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Thanks for the response.
The Iranians see themselves as the proud inheritors of the ancient Persian civilization, they will not be anyone’s poodle.
It should be noted that even if the theocracy falls, it may merely be replaced by another hard authoritarian regime, & equally nationalistic. Every single country caught up in Arab Spring revolts & revolutions ended up having the revolts crushed (Bahrain & Iran) falling back under hard authoritarianism after a brief nominally democratic interlude (Egypt & Tunisia), or became failed states (Libya, Syria & Yemen).