Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I was informed of the results of another operation against criminals who worked for the enemy.
Employees of the State Bureau of Investigation together with the Security Service of Ukraine detained the former head of the Main Directorate of the Security Service of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. This person was dismissed by me at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, and as we can see, that decision was completely justified. Sufficient evidence has been collected to notify this person of suspicion of treason. All his criminal activities are documented. Everything he has done during these months as well as earlier will get a proper legal assessment.
Everyone who together with him was part of a criminal group that worked in the interests of the Russian Federation will also be held accountable. It is about the transfer of secret information to the enemy and other facts of cooperation with the Russian special services.
I want to thank everyone who participated in this operation. It can truly be called self-purification.
I visited the frontline regions – the most difficult ones. I personally dealt with the activities of the law enforcement agencies in particular. As a result of this, as you already know, personnel decisions were made regarding the regional heads of the security sector – Kherson, Kharkiv. We also sorted out the issues of the local leadership of the executive power.
The specific actions and any inaction of each official in the security sector and in law enforcement agencies will be evaluated. The corresponding inspection of law enforcement agencies has already yielded the first results and will be continued.
As of today, 651 criminal proceedings have been registered regarding treason and collaboration activities of employees of prosecutor’s offices, pretrial investigation bodies, and other law enforcement agencies. In 198 criminal proceedings, relevant persons were notified of suspicion. In particular, more than 60 employees of the prosecutor’s office and the Security Service of Ukraine remained in the occupied territory and are working against our state.
Such an array of crimes against the foundations of the national security of the state and the connections detected between the employees of the security forces of Ukraine and the special services of Russia pose very serious questions to the relevant leadership. Each of these questions will receive a proper answer. Today I made a decision to remove the Prosecutor General from office and to dismiss the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine.
I want to be heard today by everyone on whom the extremely sensitive issue of appointing a new head of the Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office depends.
My position as the President of Ukraine is that the competition that took place should lead to a completely logical decision on the appointment of a new head. The appropriate person was selected, and the finalization of this decision depends on the competition commission.
Why is this issue sensitive? The answer is obvious. Without a full-fledged head of such an institution, its full–fledged functioning is impossible. By the way, the same applies to the National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine. The term of office of the previous head has ended. And there should be a competition procedure for the selection of a new head of NABU. I instructed the Prime Minister of Ukraine to intensify the process of launching the relevant competition.
I know that the employees of the anticorruption infrastructure perform their duties at this time and in such conditions. Moreover, they participate in the defense of our state. In particular, seven NABU employees received state awards after February 24.
However, the full functionality of any state body can be used only when there is an effective leader. So, this competition is also extremely important.
Today, another not-too-sober statement about the alleged “doomsday” for Ukraine was heard from Russia. Of course, no one will perceive such intimidation. But look how cynical it is to say such a thing today – on the anniversary of Russia’s shooting down of the Malaysian Boeing in the sky over the Ukrainian Donbas. 298 people were killed in an obvious act of terrorism. 80 children. Citizens of ten states.
Already then, Russia was following this path – to the status of a terrorist state and to a special tribunal, which will definitely take place regarding Russian aggression against Ukraine. This will be a doomsday for Russia. And not in a figurative sense, not as a loud saying, but literally.
As of 19:00 today, Russia has already used more than three thousand cruise missiles against Ukraine. It is impossible to count the number of artillery and other projectiles that were used against our country and our people. But it is definitely possible to bring all Russian war criminals to justice. Each of the collaborators. All those responsible for terror. For everything that happens during 144 days and in more than eight years. It will be done.
I spoke today with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau. Of course, we discussed our cooperation and I thanked him, I thanked Canada for its support.
But I separately emphasized that Ukrainians will never accept Canada’s decision regarding the Nord Stream turbine, which was decided to be handed over to Germany in violation of the sanctions regime.
This issue is not just about the turbine. This is a matter of compliance with sanctions. If there is one violation now, it is only a matter of time before there will be others. Russia deliberately does this blackmailing with gas and provoking violations of sanctions.
There are enough routes for the transit of Russian gas to Europe. And every country must maintain principles.
I am grateful to everyone who fights and defends justice.
I am grateful to everyone who defends Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
Breaking: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has just dismissed Security Service of Ukraine chief Ivan Bakanov and Prosecutor General of Ukraine Iryna Venediktova. This is the biggest political shakeup in Ukraine since the start of full-scale Russian invasion.
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) July 17, 2022
- Presidential decree reads the reason for Bakanov’s dismissal was: “Improper fulfillment of duties that might have led to human casualties”.
- Later Zelenskyy explained that the reason for firing both heads of top security services was the fact that more than 60 officers started collaborating with Russians on occupied territories. For years watchdogs were urging Ukraine’s presidents to reform SBU.
Liza Dmytrieva was also laid to rest today:
Wearing a crown of white flowers, 4-year-old Liza was buried in central Ukraine on Sunday.
Liza, who had Down syndrome, was en route to see a speech therapist with her mother when Russian missiles struck the city of Vinnytsia, far from the front lines. https://t.co/Jb9yBP05Ha
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 17, 2022
VINNYTSIA, Ukraine (AP) — Beautiful and serene in a crown of white flowers, 4-year-old Liza Dmytrieva, who was killed by a Russian missile strike, was buried Sunday in central Ukraine as an Orthodox priest burst into tears and told weeping relatives that “evil cannot win.”
Liza, who had Down syndrome, was en route to see a speech therapist with her mother when Russian missiles struck the city of Vinnytsia on Thursday, far from the front lines. At least 24 people were killed, including Liza and two boys ages 7 and 8, and more than 200 were wounded, including Liza’s mother.
“Look, my flower! Look how many people came to you,” Liza’s grandmother, Larysa Dmytryshyna, said, caressing Liza as she lay in an open coffin with flowers and teddy bears in Vinnytsia’s 18th-century Transfiguration Cathedral.
Liza’s father, Artem Dmytriev, stood silent, tears flowing down his face.
Liza’s mother, 33-year-old Iryna Dmytrieva, remained in an intensive care unit in grave condition. The family didn’t tell her that Liza was being buried Sunday, fearing it could affect her condition.
“Your mommy didn’t even see how beautiful you are today,” Dmytryshyna said, weeping.
Helena Sydorenko, a longtime family friend, said Liza’s mother “invested a lot of effort in socializing Liza.”
”She wanted her kid to have a full life,” Sydorenko added.
When the war started, Dmytrieva and her family fled Kyiv, the capital, for Vinnytsia, a city 270 kilometers (167 miles) to the southwest, which until Thursday was considered relatively safe.
Shortly before the explosion, Dmytrieva had posted a video on social media showing her daughter straining to reach the handlebars to push her own stroller, happily walking through Vinnytsia, wearing a denim jacket and white pants, her hair decorated with a barrette.
After the Russian missile strike, Ukraine’s emergency services shared photos showing her lifeless body on the ground next to her blood-stained stroller. Ukraine’s first lady remembered how cheerful and happy the little girl was when she met her. The videos and photos have gone viral, the latest images from the brutal war in Ukraine to horrify the world.
Liza’s closest relatives sat on both sides of the coffin, and many more crowded Vinnytsia’s Orthodox cathedral to pay their last tributes to the girl.
“I didn’t know Liza, but no person can go through this with calm,” Orthodox priest Vitalii Holoskevych said, bursting into tears. ’’Because every burial is grief for each of us. We are losing our brothers and sisters.”
He paused and continued in a trembling voice: ’’We know that evil cannot win.”
Later, at a windswept cemetery, relatives and friends bid farewell to Liza under gray skies.
More at the link!
May her memory be for a blessing.
Today is also the anniversary of Russia murdering everyone on board Malaysia Airways Flight MH17 by attacking the plane with a Buk missile launched by Russian proxies, most likely little green men. The missile was fired from Russian occupied Ukrainian territory with the intention of using the attack to cast blame on the Ukrainians. To this day Putin continues to deny Russian responsibility for this crime against humanity and act of state terror.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
It’s an e-petition to build a factory that will produce a lot of Patrons. Knowing my country — please stop now. I know that you can make EVERYTHING 😅 https://t.co/hn1XEyn8Fo
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 17, 2022
But if many Patron copies will be produced, I want one of them to become an assistant of @SergiyKyslytsya at the @UN 😁 pic.twitter.com/Adj7AvEiiq
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 17, 2022
And since today is national ice cream day, here is video of Patron eating ice cream from his official TikTok page:
@patron__dsns Ділюся з вами своїм секретиком!😌 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption translates into English as:
I share my secret with you! #pespatron #patrondsns #славаукраіни
Open thread!
Amir Khalid
That photo of Artem Dmytriev at his daughter’s casket is heartbreaking.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid: Russia has clearly settled into “if we can’t take it directly we’ll ruin it for everybody else” strategy. They have zero qualms about automated terrorism.
Alison Rose
God, I started weeping at the article about Liza’s burial. Especially this:
I can’t imagine the gut-wrenching nature of making that decision. My heart breaks for them.
Fuck you, russia. My God.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Jerzy Russian
Thanks for the update, sobering read as usual.
That does not sound good. I gather that both people fired were not directly collaborating with the Russians, but rather officers in their departments were collaborating under their noses?
Dan B
@Amir Khalid: I second that. I’m still crying remembering the image. His daughter gone and wife uncertain.
eclare
Could you please remove the exclamation point after “more at the link” regarding Liza’s death. It makes you sound happy.
West of the Rockies
I read these posts. They are, of course, very edifying. They are also enraging. I have to remind myself that, no, the Russian people are not a monolithic group (all evil and violent).
Take, what, 27% of human beings anywhere on the globe, any religion (or lack thereof even), any race, ethnicity, etc., they will be vile, stupid, dishonorable, violent, etc.
We have our own Trumpers in the US.
It’s important for one’s own emotional well-being to not stereotype and pine for the utter ruination of a country (or state).
Any time someone says “Fuck Texas/Florida/Alabama, etc.”, they’ve given into that sort of myopic thinking.
But, damn, I wish more Russians knew what their BS government was doing.
Ksmiami
@trollhattan: exactly why we need to bring the pain to them. This cannot continue
Gin & Tonic
@Jerzy Russian:
That is correct. You have the top job, you have to take the fall. And Bakanov, the SBU head, has been friends with Zelensky since childhood.
Ksmiami
@Amir Khalid: but you’re fine with this state of affairs- god forbid the Russians actually get punished…
Gin & Tonic
@West of the Rockies: They know. They support it.
Gin & Tonic
@Ksmiami: WTF?
Ksmiami
@West of the Rockies: the majority of Russians are all in. As were the Germans in 1942. Sorry- there’s no way to stop Putin’s nightmare terrorist state without killing and harming Russians.
Villago Delenda Est
Noam Chomsky is out of his fucking mind. How can anyone support the Russian aggressors, in any way, after that sweet four year old died far from the front in a Russian terror attack?
Ksmiami
@Gin & Tonic: last night Amir got upset that I suggested we might have to ramp up the attacks on the Black Sea fleet etc. That somehow punishing a monstrous aggressor nation was evil. That’s just not how any of this works.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami:
I see you have finally taken complete leave of your senses.
Gin & Tonic
@Ksmiami: I read Adam’s thread every night, or the next morning. That’s not what I read.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: No. it’s a carry over from last night. And Russia is planning to basically pave over Ukraine with artillery so any future planning must include a way to completely eradicate Russians from Ukraine and seal off the country. Unless you think the current state of affairs can go on ad infinitum
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami:
No, but I do think you are bloodthirsty maniac if that counts.
Ksmiami
@Gin & Tonic: To me, Amir’s response that somehow wrecking Russia’s ability to make war was classic god forbid the Russians actually suffer…the consequences of their leadership- the poor dears. That’s the problem with war – even citizens who don’t approve or want it get caught in a maelstrom.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: Not blood thirsty- just that dealing with evil requires a maximalist response- it almost always leads to it anyway.
zhena gogolia
@West of the Rockies: Unfortunately, a lot of them know.
Gin & Tonic
@Ksmiami: He said nothing of the sort, of course, but you do you.
O. Felix Culpa
Baying for blood from the safety of one’s keyboard is not a moral stance.
Dan B
@Gin & Tonic: Ksmiami comes across as vengeful. He’s not making any headway with any Jackals as far as I can tell. My question is would he support a war that would kill four year old Russians?
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Yep.
Omnes Omnibus
@Dan B: I believe Ksmiami identifies as she.
Alison Rose
@Ksmiami: You know I’m in favor of more aggressive action, but I think you need to take a moment and consider what you’re saying here. You’re casting some pretty dark aspersions on Amir as though they were the enemy.
Dan B
@Omnes Omnibus: I believe you’re correct. My bad.
Ksmiami
@Dan B: That’s why you don’t start wars like Putin has. And of course no one wants innocent people like your hypothetical Russian kid to die, but that might be what it takes to end this because I’m more concerned about Ukrainian kids that ARE actually dying right now with no end in sight. Try imagining going to work or school with ongoing missile attacks from a large, insane nuclear neighbor…
Russia is being an asshole nation Rt now and needs to be stopped.
O. Felix Culpa
@Ksmiami:
I think it’s safe to say that everyone here agrees with that statement. (I’m assuming Noam Chomsky is not a secret jackal.)
We diverge on the how.
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose : fine maybe I misinterpreted, but there is no perfect clean solution here and war in the middle of Europe is a really really bad thing and if we can implore Western Europe to more vigorously help Ukraine as well as ramping up our positions, we can help bring this criminal invasion to an end.
HumboldtBlue
O/T (but only barely) as it’s footage of armed conflict, only this time in an elementary school in Uvalde. Body cam footage.
CCL
These posts are always hard to read, and I am sure, much harder to write. Thank you again, Adam, for keeping us all informed.
Ksmiami
Finally- we can actually do much more… like knocking out Belorussian telecom and scrambling their signals. I’m afraid that our window for action is closing esp if the nightmare GOP takes Congress.
Jay
@Jerzy Russian:
Ukraine’s Security Services have been “suspect” for a long time.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/getting-ukraines-security-service-reform-right/
Alison Rose
For a nice bit of news: WCK has hit 100 million meals served in Ukraine.
I mean, it’s not nice that they’re having to be there to do this, but it’s nice that they’re doing it. Keeping people going through this terror and giving them a bit of normalcy. We love to see it.
Fair Economist
I’m trying to figure out what’s going on with Zelensky’s firing the Security Service Chief and the Prosecutor General. They were both associates of Zelensky, and suspected of corruption, but corruption in the sense of protecting Zelensky’s *other* associates (and I think malicious prosecution with Poroshenko). So it’s unexpected for Zelensky to fire them. Is he trying to clean up for EU admission? (because the EU has issues with that kind of thing) Shift to being the “clean guy” when he has latitude? Just ditch some cronies who turned out to be incompetent when the digested remnants hit the rotating air circulation device? It’s a bit odd, although welcome.
Amir Khalid
@Ksmiami:
would be an act of war against Belarus, expanding the conflict to three countries. Most of the world is on Ukraine’s side (or says it is) and wants Russia out of Ukrainian sovereign territory, but expanding the war to more countries is a big and most likely unwise step. I’m not sure that it’s even possible to finesse away the complications that would arise.
And before you make that ludicrous claim again, I am no Russian appeaser.
Carlo Graziani
@Fair Economist: So far as Bakanov is concerned, the NYTs story alludes to the necessity of tightening security and professionalizing upper management at SBU, in part to reassure Western allies.
Jay
@Fair Economist:
certain segments of Ukraine’s Security Services have never been fully “purged” of their Soviet Era structures and attitudes.
Were any US security agency to discover that 60 of their staff were working for the Russians, there would be a significant number of senior vacancies in the agency, voluntary or involuntary.
Andrya
For the funeral of Liza Dmytrieva, I also have no words.
On another topic, Adam, I do have a question. I had always thought that the shooting down of MH17 was an accident due to incompetence, and that the russians, after the fact, lied and blamed it on the Ukrainians. Your post tonight, if I understand it correctly, says that the russians (or their “little green men”) knew it was a civilian airliner and shot it down anyway. Could you clarify if I understood you correctly?
As always, thanks for these posts. They cannot be easy to write.
Carlo Graziani
@Ksmiami: You have a very odd view of what constitutes a worthwhile target, strategic goal, or operation of war. Knocking out Belorussian telecom gains Ukraine what exactly in your opinion?
Look, I try to refrain from overdoing snark in this context, because I recognize how upsetting what the Russians do every day, and I also dream of their comeuppance. But this is not a movie. There are real-world bad consequences to every stupid decision made purely from anger. And I have to tell you that almost every prescriptive declaration that you have issued in this forum would fall under the rubric of “stupid decision made purely from anger” if you were, in fact, making any decisions at all.
It’s OK to be angry. It’s normal — how could one not be? To want the Russians to pay for their crimes, we all want that. But to assume that nothing is being done to assist Ukraine? You’re not listening to the Ukrainians themselves. They’re saying they think they’re going to win. I agree with them.
There is a real debate still in progress over whether the West — and the US in particular — has struck the right risk balance in it’s support of Ukraine. Many people, Adam included, believe the US could be taking more risks. I happen to believe the Biden administration got it about right. However note that no serious person denies that there are risks that need to be weighed, and that this is a conversation that does not begin and end at “the Russians deserve punishment, why the hell aren’t we punishing them”.
That is basically an unserious take on the war, and that’s the reason that you get so much pushback here when you express variations on that take.
MagdaInBlack
@Carlo Graziani: Thank you.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Thank you as well.
Dan B
@Carlo Graziani: I’ve been thinking about what would happen if the Ukrainians attacked Russian territory. Putin’s job would be much easier. You put it very well.
Amir Khalid
@Carlo Graziani:
Well put.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Great stuff!
Reverse tool order
@Ksmiami:
Barring nuclear war (seems likely), when this has passed there will still be Russians, Ukrainians, Americans, and others needing to live with ourselves and all those others. Meanwhile, resolving this is not simple, easy, or even obvious.
At # 21, you said “…dealing with evil requires a maximalist response…” The wrongness of Russia’s acting out the entitlement they don’t have does not entitle us or Ukraine to act like that in turn.
Perhaps you could describe what it would look like to actually take a few steps along a path you seem to want?
YY_Sima Qian
@Dan B: Ukrainian Special Forces and helicopters have struck targets in Russian territory, although pretty close to the border w/ Ukraine. Sabotage teams may have gone further afield, given the Russian military or dual use research facilities that have suffered mysterious fires & explosions. What Ukrainians absolutely need to avoid is hitting non-military targets, or even military targets where there is high risk of collateral damage if. This includes Russian regional & central government buildings, even though the genocidal invasion is being prosecuted from these buildings (especially the ones in Moscow).
I tend to assess proposed measures by 3 criteria: the balance of benefit/risk for Ukraine, balance of benefit/risk for the US, balance of benefit/risk for the world. How much a measure hurts or relieves Russia only matters in terms of how much they help Ukraine.
That is why I am supportive of the Turkish/UN led effort to reach a deal (despite my skepticism that it will actually materialize) which would allow Ukraine to export its grains. Yes, “comfort letters” from the US government would enable shipping companies to obtain insurance for carrying Russian food exports (that are in any case not currently under sanction), too. However, Ukraine will have far greater financial relief from being able to export its grains, & it will relieve the food crisis in the developing world. The effort alone could also improve the US’ standing in the Global South, & the US needs to compete w/ China in the Global South if it is to compete w/ China.
That is why I am also supportive of lifting restrictions on targeting Russian territory using weapons donated to Ukraine, at least the tube & rocket artillery. The US/NATO can always make it clear to Ukraine that any use of donated weapons against civilian targets in Russia, or even inadvertent collateral damage of civilian targets, will severely impact their ability to send more. The US/NATO could even vet targets that Ukraine wants to strike in Russia, though NATO may not want to get that deeply involved in Ukrainian prosecution of the war.
That is why I am also skeptical of proposals to seize Russian assets in the US to give to Ukraine, absent a US declaration of war against Russia. The move would greatly benefit Ukraine, would not impact Russia much (since they are already frozen) other than rally pissing Putin off. However, such a move will damage the attraction of the US Dollar as an attractive vehicle for storing value, since a lot of the dollar reserves in the world are held by countries that, while not enemies of the US (even nominally Allie’s & partners), would be concerned about the possibility of getting in the crosshairs of US at some point down the line, & would be particularly mindful that such financial weapons will eventually be wielded by the GOP. Any undermining of the Dollar Hegemony will be deeply detrimental to the US’ position, & I say this as someone who is no fan of the Dollar Hegemony, due to its impact on the Global South, all non-dollar economies, & indeed the US itself (particularly the working class). The world economy is already in turmoil, it does not need more financial uncertainties. When there is economic turmoil, there opening for populist reactionary forces to make gains, everywhere. However, I would be interested in any analysis that can convincingly make the case that seizing Russia’s dollar assets would not cause significant uncertainty in the short, medium to long term, or explain the means by which the Biden Administration can mitigate these risks.
Reverse tool order
@Ksmiami:
At # 21, you said “…dealing with evil requires a maximalist response…” Would you please describe what the first few steps of a response you want would look like?
Reverse tool order
At # 21, Ksmiami said “…dealing with evil requires a maximalist response…” Would you please describe what the first few steps of a response you want would look like?
(First two reply attempts didn’t work)
JWR
@Carlo Graziani: That really, really needed to be said. Thank you!
livewyre
@Carlo Graziani: Echoing the outpouring of gratitude with some late thoughts: as tempting as it is to attribute this foolishness to one prominent name – rightly and deftly called out in this case – I’ve been seeing these sentiments bubbling underneath the whole topic, fueled by justified anger.
The refrains of “we can’t afford to sit around, we have to take the fight to them…” or “so much for your ‘good Russians'” and their singly-implied subtext (sometimes outright stated as “nuke Moscow already”) strike me the same as a lot of talk in late 2001 about glowing glass parking lots. I think there’s an urge and a longing to justify atrocity that we as a whole society have tended more to out-show than outgrow. And the “show” is all too threadbare in spots.
It’s a lot like we don’t realize, outside of dedicated study, what the actual problem is with war crimes, other than who they’re done to. Like “he’s hurting the wrong people” – not all over again, but never stopped. At least on a policy level there are definitions for these things. I long for us to eventually recognize the difference in a social context as well.
Ksmiami
@Carlo Graziani: oh- I don’t want the Ukrainians to do more to Russia- I want to make it clear that the US can increase / showcase our power to Russia to cause them to back off esp from the non military terror campaign. It’s obvious that Putin isn’t going to be incentivized to stop until Ukrainian identity is destroyed-
Ksmiami
@Carlo Graziani: I’m not disagreeing- of course – anything that entails leading to nuclear exchange is off the table. But the blockade in particular is a completely illegal and violent act against the entire globe and deserves a response or at least the threat of a response from us- at least in the form of navy escorts.
@Carlo Graziani:
Ksmiami
1) more stringent and effective sanctions
2) Telling Putin that we – the US and the west- will respond to the Black Sea blockade- that starving the globe is an act of maritime war.
3) Releasing all the frozen Russian assets and giving the money in tranches to Ukraine
4) Making sure the west starts increasing the flow of promised weaponry. EU nations have slowed their commitments to a crawl.
lowtechcyclist
Adam: thanks to the HIMARS we’ve given to Ukraine, they keep on blowing up Russian ammo dumps. But Russian artillery doesn’t seem to have slowed down in its bombing/shelling/whatever you call it, of Ukraine’s cities and towns. Do we expect the destruction of ammo dumps to start reducing the Russian shelling at some point, and how long should that take?
Cameron
Treason by government officials? Are we talking about Ukraine or USA?
Jinchi
@YY_Sima Qian:Reiterating a point I made late yesterday: I know this war is infuriating, but The Donbas, Crimea and the Black Sea are filled with more targets than weapons like HIMARS can hit already, and there is no magic target in Russia that would end this war.
The US and NATO have given billions in military aid, equipment and intelligence to the war effort with a singular condition. Don’t launch those weapons at Russia. Ukraine has spent a lot of effort building trust with the alliance, and gotten ever more sophisticated weaponry as a result. It would be stupid to throw that trust away now.
You make it clear in your own comment that “collateral damage of civilian targets”, could end the supply of weapons and ammunition critical to the war effort. So I don’t understand this zeal to greenlight use of NATO weapons to attack Russia. Exactly what targets in Russia are you thinking about?
And then there is this:
Vetting targets in Russia absolutely involves NATO deeply in the Ukrainian prosecution of the war. Only it would explicitly be the war on Russia, not the defense of Ukraine. You’re literally describing the escalation that NATO is trying to avoid.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jinchi: As, I mentioned in yesterday’s thread, I don’t think this is a big impediment to Ukraine right now. As you say (& I did, too), there are plenty of targets w/in Ukrainian territory for HIMARS, M270s, PzH2000s, & CAESARs. However, at some point, if the war goes as Ukraine & its support hope, that will change, & the Russian Army’s rear area will be in Russia.
Furthermore, there is one militarily useful area in Russia for Ukrainians to target w/ its new long range artillery – the logistical tail for the Russian thrust in the Izyum direction, half of which is in Russia. That looks to be one of the main vectors for the next phase of the Russian offensive.
Jinchi
@YY_Sima Qian:
What do you think Russia’s reaction will be if NATO continued to supply advanced weapons knowing they’ll be fired into Russia?
Uncle Cosmo
@Omnes Omnibus: BSmiasma “identifies” as a vile, vicious, bloodthirsty Stalin-wannabe. No idea why it hasn’t been banhammered into the 45th dimension by now.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jinchi: What can they do?
We are talking about artillery systems w/ < 100 km range, which means realistically they will only fire ~ 50 km into Russian territory, max. We are not talking about cruise missiles w/ hundreds of km range targeting Moscow. Putin will bluster that anything & everything will trigger nuclear war, but some of his bluffs have to be called (such as Sweden & Finland entering NATO). Even w/o the restriction in place, the vast majority of Ukrainian fires from HIMARS & M270d will necessarily be targets inside of Ukraine
OTOH, I do not support NATO establishing any kind of No Fly Zones in Ukraine, or NATO navies attempting to break the Russian blockade. The risk of NATO & Russian forces directly engaging each other becomes too high.
Jinchi
Is that a serious question? What do you think the US response would be if Russia started launching artillery at targets in the United States?
This is why Ukraine is free to launch raids or sabotage missions across the border. That’s a conflict between Ukraine and Russia. But Ukraine isn’t allowed to use weapons donated by NATO to strike those same targets. That would be a conflict between Russia and the West. Every city in Europe and the US would become a ‘fair’ target once we give the green light.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jinchi: What do you think Russia will do? Retaliate directly against NATO countries? Escalate to nuclear weapons?
BTW, I am reading on Chinese social media that Russian forces has launched an assault in the Sumy region, supposedly in reaction to the Ukrainian Army launching strikes into Russian territory from the Sumy area using HIMARS. This discussion may be moot.
In fact, this is the kind of reaction I would anticipate from Russia – attempting to push the Ukrainians back so that Russian territories are out of range of HIMARS or M270 systems.
Ksmiami
@Uncle Cosmo: oh BS… I have relatives in Croatia and Romania and skin in the game here to prevent a Tsarist from conquering and destroying nations… Putin’s Russia is a problem for the world and it’s not fair to Ukraine to have them endure all the suffering.
The Pale Scot
Putin is already at war with Europe. There is only one way to stop him
from the Guardian
War For Ukraine Day 145: A Brief Update Tonight
[…] Yesterday Andrya asked: […]