It has been a long, hot, and humid day here. I’m fried. So just a brief update tonight.
We start, as always, with President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, a photo of a guy from Mariupol, who went out to the streets of the city with a Ukrainian flag, went viral. He came to the remains of the drama theater building destroyed by Russian troops. This was very brave. And I want to thank him for this act.
This guy is one of many of our people who are waiting for the return of Ukraine and who will not accept the occupation under any circumstances.
Russia keeps most of them in an information vacuum. Every day in the occupied territories it spreads new lies about Ukraine and our actions. But despite propaganda and intimidation, people not only remember Ukraine, but also demonstrate what they really think and what they strive for.
We never forgot about them. And I ask all of you who have contacts and opportunities for this: spread real information to the occupied territory, support our people, spread the truth there. In any way you find effective. On our entire Ukrainian land from Kherson to Horlivka, from Henichesk to the occupied districts of the Kharkiv region, in Melitopol and Berdyansk, in Enerhodar, in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, in Crimea, our people should hear about Ukraine from Ukrainians.
The Armed Forces of our state managed to inflict significant logistical losses on the invaders. It is increasingly difficult for the Russian army to hold positions on the captured territory. Step by step, we advance, disrupt supplies for the occupiers, identify and neutralize collaborators.
The prospect is obvious: the Ukrainian flag will be in all our cities and villages. The only question is time. And while this time lasts, while Russia can still destroy life in Ukraine, as it did today with strikes at Nikopol, Toretsk, cities in the Kharkiv region, do not forget to provide information and emotional support to our people in the occupied areas. Tell them about Ukraine. For its part, the state does this. But we must use all the information power of our society.
As of today, 1,028 settlements were liberated from the occupiers. Another 2,621 are still under the control of the invaders. And we must maintain information communication with all of them – with all where there are people. As much as possible.
I spoke today with President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro about the long-term consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine, the sanctions policy, and the issue of our bilateral relations.
And one more important news regarding the Security Service of Ukraine. Personnel audit of the Service is taking place. The issue of dismissal of 28 officials is being considered. Different levels, different directions. But the grounds are similar – unsatisfactory job performance.
I am thankful to everyone who faithfully and effectively serves the state!
I am thankful to everyone who defends Ukrainian interests at their level.
Glory to Ukraine!
This is what President Zelenskyy is referring to:
Mariupol pic.twitter.com/Gmz1m3EN5i
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 18, 2022
Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, has sort of made a major announcement:
I discussed with our great friend Lloyd J. Austin III the upcoming meeting within the framework of #Ramstein: we agreed on the agenda, shared information on the control of arms arriving to 🇺🇦 etc. Also, @SecDef has some very good news, but details will come a little later pic.twitter.com/J3grbGZzV3
— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) July 18, 2022
Yesterday Andrya asked:
On another topic, Adam, I do have a question. I had always thought that the shooting down of MH17 was an accident due to incompetence, and that the russians, after the fact, lied and blamed it on the Ukrainians. Your post tonight, if I understand it correctly, says that the russians (or their “little green men”) knew it was a civilian airliner and shot it down anyway. Could you clarify if I understood you correctly?
Aside from the fact that Igor Girkin, the commander of the forces that shot down MH17, has try to be too cute by half and claimed that he was moral responsibility for its downing, but didn’t actually order the flight shot down, I am also well aware that shooting down civilian aircraft and then denying responsibility was a long time tactic of the Soviets. This thread has all the details:
It was not the first Boeing of an Asian airline Moscow shot down and denied it. In 1983, Soviet warplane Su-15 shot down a Korean Boeing 747 KE007 on its flight from New York to Seoul via Anchorage. 269 people were killed. The Soviets denied this kill exactly as in the MH17 case pic.twitter.com/riqxu3kc2M
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) July 17, 2022
- The Moscow’s lies were identical to the lies about MH17: “we did not shot it down”, “there was an CIA planted bomb on board”, “no alive people were on board”, “it was a spy plane” etc. Still, this WAS NOT the first Boeing Moscow shot down!
- In April 1978, Soviets shot down another Korean Boeing 707 KAL 902 on its route Paris-Anchorage-Seoul, this time over Kola peninsula. A Soviet Su-15 shot an AA missile at KAL902, instantly killing 2 people. The crew managed to land the plane on a frozen lake. 13 ppl were injured.
- This was a miracle – I believe, it was the only case in the world history, as a passenger jet, hit by an AA missile, was safely landed by its crew. The captain of KAL902 was Kim Chang-Kyu, a veteran of Korean war, a retired colonel of Korean Air Forces.
- The Soviets arrested the crew and held them for the week, until they “pardoned” and released the crew. The Soviets also requested Korea to pay a bill of USD100,000 as “costs reimbursement” (Korea denied). Moscow has also stolen the wrack itself and used for reverse engineering.
- Was it the first case, as Soviets shot and looted a civil western plane? Hell no. On June 14th 1940, months after a Soviet-Finnish “Winter war”, Soviet Air Force shot down a Finnish civil plane Ju-52 Kaleva, route 1631 from Tallinn to Helsinki, over the Gulf of Finland, killing 9
- Amid 6 passengers of Kaleva flight, there were one US and two French diplomats, transporting about 200kg of diplomatic correspondence. Kaleva was shot down by 2 Soviet DB-3T light bombers on their routine patrol. A Soviet submarine Shch-301 emerged at the crash site and looted it
- About 100kg of diplomatic post and currency in cash were looted and urgently transported to Soviet naval base Kronstadt. The Soviets denied everything as usual. The bombers’ crew said, they were “provoked” by passengers of Kaleva who were “threatening them by showing fists”(sic!)
- In three days, the Soviets invaded and annexed Estonia. From this perspective, shooting down foreign civil planes and denying it amid preparing aggressions and annexations of neighbouring nations is a Moscow’s proud tradition since at least 82 years.
If it walks like a duck…
Marine veteran and current doctoral student Rob Lee has a short thread debunking Russian claims to have destroyed all of Ukraine’s HIMARS:
The Wagner-linked RSOTM channel posted about HIMARS, which they said are successfully striking "very important" targets. They say that Russian claims that HIMARS have been stolen or destroyed are fiction and that there would be greater evidence if true.https://t.co/kt3DGDWvqF pic.twitter.com/yr6fL1uQBZ
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 18, 2022
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 18, 2022
Let’s leave it there.
Your daily Patron!
It's a mini-me. I look like my mother. By the way, I never showed her to anyone, but I decided to post her photo on my Patreon. There I share more private, backstage life. Therefore, if you wish, please join : https://t.co/U5SKtrKTfK pic.twitter.com/fuyTnD2YHo
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 18, 2022
And a Patron Mirror Match video from his official TikTok page:
@patron__dsns Так буде з кожним, хто лишає свої «міни» на газонах🤛🏻 #песпатрон #патрондснс #mortalkombat
The caption translates as:
This will happen to everyone who leaves their “mines” on the lawns #pespatron #patrondsns #mortalkombat
Open thread!
Dan B
Thanks for slogging through a hot day to keep us posted. Get a cool rest.
HumboldtBlue
So instead of a solid 25-30 minute read followed by link-chasing and bookmarking for later reading, it’s just five minutes and just a some Patron love. Thanks for the (all-star) break on the homework.
Also, are you familiar with the fake Twitter account that pretended to be a Canadian who volunteered, and who was then found to be a fake?
Alison Rose
The photo of the young man in Mariupol is breathtaking. Talk about a picture being worth a thousand words.
I find it baffling how anyone thinks we can take any single thing russia says seriously. Putin and his ilk lie as easily as they breathe.
Thank you as always, Adam. Now to watch the USWNT hopefully kick some Canadian butt.
Gin & Tonic
@HumboldtBlue: Well, he *was* Canadian…
Andrya
Thanks, Adam, for answering my question. Every time I think I cannot become more horrified, reality corrects me…
patrick II
The Polish defense minister has accused Putin of being responsible for the crash of the T154 carrying the Polish president, his wife and 94 others near Smolensk, Russia in 2010.
Yutsano
@patrick II: Oh wow. I hadn’t thought about that incident in forever. I remember that devastated Poland.
HumboldtBlue
@Gin & Tonic:
Yeah.
Gin & Tonic
@patrick II: I was in Ukraine when that happened. Everyone immediately assumed russia was responsible.
debbie
Any news on the whereabouts of the actual soldiers captured?
Fair Economist
Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas deliveries to Europe, says will no longer keep committments.
Seems a major blunder. Europe will take some short-term economic pain, but will also be forced to stop using Russian gas, and once it’s stopped it will not resume. The timing of the cutoff is particularly bad for Russia; at the same time as the all-time record heat wave for Western Europe strengthens the Greens, who will be pushing to drop it forever, and doing it in the middle of summer gives Europe plenty of time to prepare for winter when needs are highest.
I’m thinking it indicates Russia is feeling desperate. If they did want to cut gas, they’d want to wait until winter. It makes sense only if they fear major setbacks in the next few months.
Adam L. Silverman
@HumboldtBlue: I have seen that guy. If you read, watch, listen, and observe carefully you’ll find that some of the much more well known people who are or have gone over there are being disingenuous and less than honest about what it is they’re really doing. People that have to be the center of attention will always find ways to make themselves the center of attention.
Carlo Graziani
Hm, interesting. I’ve been trying to count HIMARS too, but it’s not easy. Allegedly there should only be 8 in Ukraine at the moment, with another 4 due for delivery by the end of the month. So 16 is obviously panic-driven overcount, but it’s not impossible that the extra 4 showed up early.
Where they are is very hard to tell, because they play peek-a-boo from 70-80 km away with fire missions that look like air strikes on high-value targets, but they’re mounted on a vehicle that can travel at near-highway speeds. So the same unit can screw with the rear area of a fairly wide linear frontage, and the Russians no longer have the aviation or counterbattery means to fight back against the threat, it appears.
bookworm1398
@Fair Economist: If the Russians had any sense of gas timing they wouldn’t have invaded in the spring.
Mike in NC
Far right-wing ‘Americans for Prosperity’ scam is running ads against lower gas prices.
Argiope
IIRC, there were a number of HIV researchers heading to or from a global conference on that Malaysian Air flight, setting back the science in this area considerably. A loss not just of precious humans to those who loved them, cutting their lives cruelly short, but to humanity as a whole.
Nobody in particular
So you are still here. As it happens, Panel 4 at Monticello will be in the news again. “Abortion” is just the low-hanging fruit, like “privacy.” There is no text in the Constitution containing the phrase: “Wall of Separation.” Or Air Force, for that matter. But these are not jurists, they are theocratic ideologues. The plain fact of the matter is that almost none of the framers were confessed atheists, most of them realized that much of the Bible was “bullshit,” as Jefferson himself labeled it. Paine was less kind. But that’s another matter. Carl Sagan and Albert Einstein were NOT self-described atheists. True scientists rarely are. But most Americans think otherwise. Science is just a progress report. If it finds God, it will let you know.
Ironically, Kurt Gödel was quite religious. But his Incompleteness Theorems have had the benefit of ruling out the one thing that is a logical and mathematical improbability, in fact, paradoxically impossible: Omnipotence. No absolutes in a closed system. But we now know that omnipresence and omniscience are not impossible. In fact, it is now a clear possibility. Bell’s Theorem has been proved.
“The word “cause” is an altar to an unknown god.”
William James
2liberal
Adam, many thanks for spending a lot of time and effort on these posts.
2liberal
Thanks for taking the time to create these posts and keeping us updated with the current status.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L. Silverman: It seems that there is a heat wave across the entire northern temperate zone. Finally had thunder storms here in Wuhan today to provide relief to the heat. More rain in the coming days, fingers crossed.
Do get rested! Unfortunately, the war will still be going on tomorrow, & the battle lines will not have moved much.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fair Economist: Russia does not yet have an easy outlet for the gas produced at the Yamal fields in northern Siberia, which has been supplying Europe. The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline connecting Yamal & the Chinese market (through Mongolia) will not start construction in the Mongolian section for another 2 years, so it’ll likely be 3 or more years before Russia can pump the gas from there to China. I do not believe Russia has the infrastructure in the Arctics to load LNG onto carriers to ship to other customers.
This feels like a move made in spite, calculated based on the amount of hurt it might deal to Europe now (as you say, the impact would have been much higher come winter), than what benefit would accrue to Russia.
rachel
@bookworm1398: And also, what were they thinking when they decided to start their “short, victorious war” right before the beginning of mud season?
jnfr
Thanks so much for doing these updates. I look forward to them every day.
Barney
Russia’s first claim on the day they shot down MH17 was that it was a Ukrainian An-26 transport:
https://tass.com/world/741164
They really had shot one down on July 14th: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28299334 , but no An-26 ever appeared in other lists for July 17th – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War (yeah, it’s Wikipedia, but no other An-26 was claimed or admitted).
Nettoyeur
@patrick II: That whole business is murky. Don’t know what or who to believe.
Another Scott
@rachel: Supposedly Xi told VVP to hold off on the invasion to keep the Beijing Olympics from being affected. Which is how it turned out.
And which introduces all kinds of unanswered questions about their discussions and plans before the invasion and afterwards…
Grr…,
Scott.
Unkown known
That it would be short and victorious, and so the main consequence of mud would be a bit of extra scrubbing for the tanks before the big parade in Kyiv.
J R in WV
I always make it a point to read this post and thread the next morning, so it is less likely to affect my sleep.
Thanks for keeping us educated on the current status of the Russo-Nazi invasion! Stay cool if you can everyone.
Jinchi
How would that make any sense? Who is the target audience?
NutmegAgain
Thank you so much for these updates–they’ve become mandatory reading for me, even if it’s a day late, since I tried going to bed early yesterday.
FWIW, I once knew somebody, friend of a friend really, whose parents had been on that Korean Air flight. This was about 10-12 years after the disaster. She was emphatically not OK psychologically, emotionally, at all. Having lost both her parents to a state terrorist strike fundamentally destabilized both her personality and her life. Tragic in so many ways. So that’s just a tiny wedge of information of how this kind of violence ripples outward and continues to cause harm.
terry chay
@Another Scott:
I don’t think this passes Occam’s Razor: it doesn’t explain how Chinese foreign and diplomatic corps was caught with their pants down when Russia did invade in February.
The most likely explanation is that Xi dangled/was negotiating the joint statement that they released just before the Beijing Olympics to thumb their noses at the United States. China thought it would be great about the One China policy and how the US is hypocrites and all that shit while ignoring what Russia was planning on doing with it (e.g. use it to reinvade Ukraine and freeze China diplomatically). Putin decided that was worth it and decided to delay the invasion to secure Xi’s signature (because post-invasion, there was no way China would follow through).
Putin is also just the sort of militarily stupid idiot to miss how a 1-2 month delay on his plans would affect he course of the war (after all they thought they’d have toppled Kyiv by day 5). But that is par for the course for Russia. I have no doubt that in the future, we will find out that he delayed the invasion a few days just so a few Russian politicians/diplomats could make jokes about how American intelligence predicting the invasion of Ukraine were wrong, when it would turn out a week later, when they did re-invade, nobody is going to care about that and said diplomats were laughingstocks running for the exits.
A similar Razor can be applied to the shooting down of MH-17. Odds are the Russians, like with KA007, thought it was a military craft and shot it down. It is no doubt that Russia did it (LGM as Adam mentioned) because there is no way a bunch of yahoos in DNR/LNR would have the ability to launch such a SAM. I believe the commenter was (mostly) drawing exception to the fact that they intentionally shot down a civilian aircraft vs. unintentionally shot it down/intentionally shooting down what they thought (at the time) was a Ukrainian air transport, than taking exception to their going through their usual denial/obfuscating/etc. b.s. that dates back to the Soviet Union