Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Fight them, without becoming them!

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War For Ukraine Day 147: First Lady Zelenska Speaks To Members of Congress; Ukraine Continues To Counter-strike In Kherson

War For Ukraine Day 147: First Lady Zelenska Speaks To Members of Congress; Ukraine Continues To Counter-strike In Kherson

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Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska addressed members of both parties in Congress today:

From Politico:

Ukraine’s first lady delivered an emotional speech to American lawmakers on Wednesday, emphasizing the human toll of Russia’s war on her country and pleading with Congress for more weapons.

Olena Zelenska, who addressed members of both chambers at the invitation of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, showed images of Ukrainians who have been killed, injured and displaced, in particular young children. It was an appeal to lawmakers not as politicians but as “mothers and fathers, grandmothers and grandfathers, daughters and sons.”

“While Russia kills, America saves. And you should know about it. We thank you for that,” said Zelenska, who delivered her address in Ukrainian. She denounced “Russia’s hunger games, hunting for peaceful people and peaceful cities of Ukraine.”

After thanking Congress for the tens of billions of dollars in military and humanitarian assistance, Zelenska said more needs to be done. She specifically asked for air defense systems that can intercept Russian missiles that are killing Ukrainian civilians daily, and acknowledged the upcoming August recess that will send lawmakers back to their home states for a critical stretch of the war.

“I am asking for weapons — weapons that would not be used to wage a war on somebody else’s land, but to protect someone’s home and the right to wake up in that home,” she said. “Russia is destroying our people.”

Hours before Zelenska spoke, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that the U.S. will provide four additional rocket launchers to Ukraine as part of a forthcoming package of military assistance.

Austin, speaking at the fourth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, said the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems “have made such a difference on the battlefield.” So far, the United States has spent roughly $6.1 billion on military aid to Ukraine.

Around 100 lawmakers attended Zelenska’s speech, including top congressional leaders from both parties. She received multiple standing ovations. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.), who was draped in a Ukrainian flag, flashed the peace sign at Zelenska as her speech was wrapping up.

“America, unfortunately, knows from its own experience what terrorist attacks are and has always sought to defeat terrorism,” Zelenska said. “Help us to stop this terror against Ukrainains. And this will be our joint great victory in the name of life, freedom and the pursuit of happiness.”

During her introduction, Pelosi noted that Zelenska traveled to Washington “from the heart of the war zone.” Others saw her speech as a call to action.

“She’s basically conveying to Congress what the human tragedy has been in Ukraine, and putting faces to it,” said Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

More at the link!

President Zelenskyy’s nightly address is after the jump. Video first, English language transcript after it (emphasis mine).

Ukrainians!

All our defenders!

I’m sure you’ve seen how effective the weapons provided by the partners are, especially modern MLRS. The name HIMARS has become almost native to our people – just like Javelin or NLAW, like “Stugna” or “Neptune” earlier.

And it is obvious that the next equally important name will appear from modern air defense systems, which we are requesting from partners. The representatives of our state did not stop working for a single day to obtain an effective air defense system. And we have certain agreements on this, there is certain success that allows us to destroy part of the missiles, but a completely different speed and scale of protection is required.

But everything depends, unfortunately, not on us, but on political decisions that can be made in key capitals. And that is why this topic of air defense became key today in the speech of the First Lady of Ukraine in the Congress of the United States of America. It was the first time in history that the First Lady made such an address to the Congress, and it is certainly an honor for Ukraine, for all our people.

The speech was as practical and sincere as possible – actually on behalf of all our families. Olena spoke about the victims of Russian terror and about the real opportunity for our American friends to help us stop this terror. This can be our joint victory – of the Ukrainian and American nations.

I am hopeful that the answers to our requests will be provided shortly. Russian terror must lose.

Today, I discussed the issue of increasing pressure on Russia for the war and additional support for Ukraine during a meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Austria and the Czech Republic who visited Kyiv. I thanked both countries for the assistance already provided and outlined the needs for the near future.

The Czech Republic holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, and it is therefore important that the Czech leadership retains all available power. During these six months, we must take basic steps to prepare for the beginning of negotiations regarding Ukraine’s membership in the EU.

I also spoke with President of the European Council Charles Michel. Financial support for Ukraine is among the main topics. We are preparing for the next Ukraine-EU Summit, as well as for the institutional strengthening of our state on the path to the European Union. Soon there may be important news in this regard – we are preparing some historic decisions for our participation in the life of a united Europe.

The seventh sanctions package of the European Union is in the final stage of approval. Its elements have already been announced, including a ban on the import of Russian gold. But this is not enough, and I frankly tell my partners about it. Russia must feel a much higher price for the war so that it forces it to seek peace.

And now it is worth looking at what is happening on the European energy market. We see how erroneous the policy of some old leaders of European countries, who made Europe hostage to gas supplies from Russia, was. And while the EU does not dare include gas in the sanctions packages, Russia uses gas for its own sanctions against every European family, literally hitting the family budgets of Europeans with pressure on the energy markets.

Ukraine has always said that Russia cannot be considered a reliable supplier of gas. And if our position had been listened to earlier, there would be no need now to look for emergency ways to fill the deficit that Russia is artificially creating on the European market.

When we turn to our partners with this or that request, with this or that advice or demand, it is based on the experience of Ukraine – on what we have already experienced. Russia is testing in Ukraine everything that can be used against other European countries. It started with gas wars and ended with a full-scale invasion, missile terror and burned cities of Ukraine. And so that this does not happen to anyone else, we must ensure a tangible joint victory over Russia in Ukraine. The sooner this is done, the less damage and suffering will be experienced by all European families, all European countries.

Therefore, after the approval of the seventh package of sanctions, it will be necessary to immediately start working on the eighth. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the supply of modern weapons to Ukraine, to provide our state with effective air defense.

We will do everything so that our partners have this understanding and for it to never weaken.

I am grateful to everyone who helps Ukrainians on the way to victory!

I am grateful to everyone who defends our country!

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine’s MOD posted an operational update earlier today (emphasis mine):

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00, on July 20, 2022

Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred forty seventh (147) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

There are no significant changes in the enemy’s activity in the Volyn, Polissya, and Siversky directions. The enemy shelled the areas of Mykolaivka, Chernihiv oblast, and Volfyne, Yastrubyne, and Pavlivka, Sumy oblast, with barrel and jet artillery.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy carried out fire damage in the areas of Mospanove, Petrivka, Ruski Tyshki, Bazaliyivka, Pechenigy, Tsyrkuny, Pytomnyk, Dementiyivka, Korobochkyne and Prudyanka settlements.

In the Slovyansk direction, shelling from tanks and artillery was recorded near Dolyna, Krasnopill, Kostyantynivka, Chepil, Husarivka, and Adamivka.

In the Donetsk direction, the aggressor shelled the areas of Kramatorsk, Siversk, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, Ivano-Daryivka settlements with barrel and rocket artillery. Conducted an airstrike near Verkhnokamyanske. Conducts assault operations in the direction of Ivano-Daryivka, hostilities continue.

In the Bakhmut direction, the occupiers are conducting combat operations with the aim of creating conditions for an offensive on the city of Bakhmut and taking over the territory of the Vuhlehirska TPP. Shelling was carried out from barrel and rocket artillery and tanks in the areas of the settlements of Berestove, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Pokrovske, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Kodema. The enemy carried out airstrikes on Berestove, Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Vershyna, New York and Pokrovsky.

Fighting continues in the direction of the settlements of Berestove, Vershyna and Novoluhanske.

On the Avdiyika, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, shelling was noted in the areas of the settlements of Novobakhmutivka, Vuhledar, Novopil, Poltavka, Hulyaipole, Kamianske, and a number of others. The enemy launched an airstrike near Avdiyivka.

Conducted combat reconnaissance in the area of ​​Novoselivka Druga and advanced in the direction of Mykilske, had no success, withdrew.

The enemy maintains a high intensity of reconnaissance with unmanned aerial vehicles in the South Buh direction. In the waters of the Black Sea, there are three Kalibr cruise missile carriers outside the base points. Reciprocal shelling from barrel, rocket artillery and tanks continues along the entire contact line. The enemy launched missile and air strikes in the area of ​​Murakhivka. There is a shortage of ammunition, food and water in the enemy units.

According to the available information, the command of the Northern Fleet of the russian federation is taking preventive measures in connection with the very low level of military discipline in the units involved and planned to be involved in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. Drunkenness and disobedience to commanders’ orders flourish.

Ukrainian aviation and missile artillery units continue to successfully fire missions at enemy command posts and logistic support bases.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s some of what Ukraine accomplished with its strike on the bridge in Kherson yesterday:

And the Ukrainians struck again earlier this evening (local time):

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today too:

In the comments last night, YY_Sima Qian asked an interesting question about the macro level maps posted by British intelligence that I repost here every night:

@ Adam. The UK MOD map is showing the Russian forces have pushed the territories it occupies further NW from Kherson? That goes against what we are hearing about Ukrainian counteroffensives there over the past several weeks. If anything, the contested zone has shifted much closer to Mykolaiv, but we hanger heard of any Russian offensives in the South, so what gives?

Or maybe the older UK MOD maps were wrong in this sector. Having an almost perfect trapezoidal shaped area under Ukrainian (or Russian, for that matter) control, & the closes point almost on the outskirts of Kherson, never made much sense to me. The currently drawn battle line is much more in line w/ what one would expect in a largely stalemated front.

Here is the UK MOD map on 7/14, for reference. Ukrainian controlled territories were almost to Kherson itself.

The link that YY_Sima Qian included is dead and I don’t have a saved 14 JUL map, but the map below is from 13 JUL:

I think there are several things going on here including the fact that much of the non Ukrainian war correspondents in country covering the war are still overly focused on the battle in Donbas and not what is going on in Kherson. This over saturation in the east means we have not getting enough quality open source reporting from Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. I think the other major issue is that while the Russian military is still not performing at any level of efficacy that anyone would’ve expected prior to the re-invasion, the Russian military leadership have explicit orders to take the south all the way to Odesa. And they’re smart enough to pay attention to the reporting on the current low intensity, but heating up, Ukrainian counteroffensive to push them out of the region. As a result they’ve been reinforcing their own positions and doing what they can to get their own lines sorted out all the way to Mykolaiv. Especially given Russia’s recently restated objective:

I think the macro level revisions we’re seeing on the British maps is the result of these overlapping items.

At the same time, the partisan resistance in Kherson is still active:

Russia is continuing its active measures and Information Warfare campaign against Ukraine. Vice has the details:

Russian government hackers tried to trick Ukrainian and international volunteers into using a malicious Android app disguised as an app to launch Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks against Russian sites, according to new research published by Google on Tuesday.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has resisted not only on the ground, but also online. A loose collective of technologists and hackers has organized under an umbrella quasi-hacktivist organization called the IT Army, and they have launched constant and persistent cyberattacks against Russian websites.

The Russian government tried to turn this volunteer effort around to unmask Ukrainian hackers, in a smart, but ultimately failed attempt.

“This is interesting and new, and [Russian government hackers] sort of testing the boundaries again, and trying to explore different things. The Russian groups definitely keep us on our toes,” Shane Huntley, the head of the Google research team Threat Analysis Group, told Motherboard in a phone call.

Huntley said that in recent years, Russian hackers have done hack and leaks, supply chain hacks, and now fake apps. “There’s this constant evolving of them not sitting on one particular attack path, but actually trying different things and evolving their techniques and seeing what works. Not all of their attempts work and not all their approaches do, but there’s considerable innovation in the ways and things they’re trying and it looks almost like an experimental mindset to me.”

Google researchers wrote in the report that the app was created by the hacking group known as Turla, which several cybersecurity companies believe works for the Kremlin. Huntley said that they were able to attribute this operation to Turla because they have tracked the group for a long time and have good visibility into their infrastructure and link it to this app.

The hackers pretended to be a “community of free people around the world who are fighting russia’s aggression”—much like the IT Army. But the app they developed was actually malware. The hackers called it CyberAzov, in reference to the Azov Regiment or Battalion, a far-right group that has become part of Ukraine’s national guard. To add more credibility to the ruse they hosted the app on a domain “spoofing” the Azov Regiment: cyberazov[.]com. 

Much more at the link!

It is important for all of us to keep in mind that Russia is not going to be slowing down or backing off its Information Warfare efforts. They will continue targeting Ukrainians in Ukraine, Americans, citizens of the EU and/or NATO member states, as well as non-EU and non-NATO member states. In the case of the US, this will be part of the ongoing campaign that is going to continue to ramp up as we approach the midterms this Fall.

The Russians are trying to get us to tear ourselves apart,” Mr. Wray said. “The Chinese are trying to manage our decline, and the Iranians are trying to get us to go away.

In news that will be of utmost importance to our Patron fans, the Ukrainian EOD personnel sent to de-mine Snake Island have recovered a cat that had been living under Russian occupation:

I think that’s enough for one night, so we segue from a Ukrainian cat rescued by Ukrainian EOD to everyone’s favorite Ukrainian EOD officer. Your daily Patron!

And birthday video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Сьогодні мені 3 роки!🥳 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ Up – Movie Theme – Giampaolo Pasquile

The caption translates as:

Today I am 3 years old! #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukrain

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

59Comments

  1. 1.

    zhena gogolia

    Can’t put my finger on why, but I’m getting a kind of Russian smell from all the anti-Merrick Garland stuff.

  4. 4.

    oldster

    Off-topic quibble warning!

    …Zelenska said. “Help us to stop this terror against Ukrainains. And this will be our joint great victory in the name of life, freedom and the pursuit of happiness.”

    Mme Zelenska delivered this in Ukrainian and then someone who knows English translated it into English.

    And this English-knower used the word “freedom,” instead of “liberty,” when Mme Zelenska was clearly quoting the Declaration?

    Dock his pay and make him copy out the Declaration by hand, five times. (Or at least the first bit, before the itemization of the King’s mistreatment of the colonies.)

  5. 5.

    Alison Rose

    When I watched Ms Zelenska’s full speech earlier, I was tearing up the whole time. Similar to her husband, she hit exactly the right notes with every word–though I’m sure for her, not being a politician, this was less familiar ground. But she was incredibly effective and moving and I’m so glad she was given this opportunity. And God, I hope this country remains on the right side of this fight.

    When I saw Lavrov’s comments today, it immediately made me think of what you have said time and time again, Adam–that Putin won’t be happy either unless he controls all of Ukraine, or until he completely destroys it. They aren’t even trying to hide that aim, which is why I want to punch people in the teeth when they say Ukraine should be negotiating or when someone like Blitzer is like “well why don’t you just cede some land” or whatever. FUCK. OFF. Not gonna happen. Not ever.

    Happy rescue day to the kitty, and happy birthday to the bestest pupper.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    @oldster: This was more likely to have been translated by a native Ukrainian-speaker who has mastered English and might not be as familiar with the Declaration as you assume. If she said свобода (svoboda), the more natural translation is freedom. The distinction between freedom and liberty is difficult to convey in Ukrainian.

  8. 8.

    Layer8Problem

    Looking at the Ukraine Ministry of Defense’s operational update above:

    . . . The enemy carried out airstrikes on Berestove, Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Vershyna, New York and Pokrovsky.

    I think to myself “Is this some kind of test?”  But I look it up and dammit there it is, New York, Ukraine.

  9. 9.

    Carlo Graziani

    The enemy carried out airstrikes on Berestove, Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Vershyna, New York and Pokrovsky.

    Wait, what? Has anyone told Eric Adams?

  10. 10.

    Bill Arnold

    @zhena gogolia:

    Can’t put my finger on why, but I’m getting a kind of Russian smell from all the anti-Merrick Garland stuff.

    Russian influence operatives (usually) amplify any existing wedges. They attempt to create new ones too, but that’s hit and miss. The Garland stuff to me smells domestic, with external nudges, which could be Russian; not sure, either.

  11. 11.

    Yutsano

    Hap Day of Birth Patron!
    I have been cut loose to make my own dinner, and have decided on latkes. Will return anon.​

    EDIT: there will be pictures.

  12. 12.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @zhena gogolia: I’m sure they’re trying to amplify it, but quite frankly that’s an organic and completely justified and legitimate response to him being a disaster who, if he had a shred of self awareness, would resign immediately.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    The strike on the Antonovskiy bridge reinforces what we learned from the Russian frustrated attempts at dropping the bridge into Sievierodonetsk with artillery, and may foretell what to expect of future attempts to drop the Kerch Strait bridge to Crimea by HIMARS strikes. It’s a hell of a lot harder to destroy a bridge by raining tons of high explosive on its deck than it is by training a few well-aimed rounds at its supports.

  14. 14.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: Unfortunately in the US, as we all know well, conservatives have completely elided the difference between liberty and freedom and replaced the meaning with the former with the meaning of the latter.

  16. 16.

    featheredsprite

    Thank you, Adam.

    Even on days when the menu is light on hard news, it is heartening to know that Ukraine is still fighting.

  18. 18.

    Carlo Graziani

    Months back, a jackal with ground-pounder service experience — early-onset Alzheimer’s prevents me from recalling the nym — warned us against taking the contiguous solid-colored “controlled areas” in those maps too literally. The “control” really amounts to sporadic roadblocks at some major road crossings and one or two minor strongholds at key towns. All of which are easily evaded by local networks of partisans or infiltrating commandos or (by summer/early fall) encircling thrusts moving off the roads.

  19. 19.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: May I be annoying for a moment and ask you for translation help? (Or anyone else here who knows the language.) I love the phrase “Together to victory” in the MOD update, and Google Translate tells me it would be разом до перемоги – but I know that program is not always the most accurate thing ever. Is it correct or would it be written differently?

  20. 20.

    Andrya

    @Alison Rose :   Let me assure you, based on my attempts to translate the Ukrainian cigarette package warning, that google translate is not the most accurate thing ever.

  22. 22.

    NutmegAgain

    @Alison Rose : I’m always interested in translation by actual humans. But in the meantime, my daughter who is a professional translator & editor, tells me that deepl translate  is the go-to for machine translation by pros. Happy trawling!

  25. 25.

    Geminid

    The Israeli newspaper Haaretz put up a long article today titled “How Putin lost the drone war- and how Iran can help him in Ukraine.” Author Anshell Pfeffer cites Jake Sullivan’s warning last week that Iran intends to supply Russia with drones and notes Iran’s denials of the story.

    But there certainly is a need, Pfeffer writes. He describes how Russia never leaned hard into drone development. They thought that their artillery, missiles and bombers would suffice. While Russia entered the war with a lot of smaller surveilance drones it has few armed attack drones.

    Iran on the other hand started developing drones in the 1990s and has several attack drone models detailed in the article. They even have a model reverse engineered from a stealthy U.S. RO-170 that fell in Iranian territory. Analysts say that Iranian attack drones might not be a game changer but that Russia could use them to try and hunt down HIMARS rocket artillery.

    It’s unclear how many drones Iran has available. An Israeli drone strike a few months ago on a base in western Iran may have destroyed over a hundred drones (it is thought that this attack occasioned Iran’s ballistic missle strike on a building in the Iraqi-Kurdish capital of Irbil, possibly used by Israel’s Mossad).

    Haaretz usually paywalls its articles but for some reason I could read this one through.

  26. 26.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: No, there is not enough money to get me to read Benjamin Wittes. He’s in the same pile as Katyal, Tribe, the Amars, and every other Harvard/Yale JD and/or law professor, or in the case of Wittes, guy with no applicable credentials whatsoever for the sinecures he has been awarded, who have been spewing forth 100% factually wrong takes since 2015. The lot of them should be shot into the sun.

  27. 27.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    I have been having a good time watching videos of Russian ammo dumps going ‘splody! While this is great fun, I have to ask, how UAF knows where to aim their beautiful new HIMARS? Adam, could this be the result of partisan action? I do realise there is a lot of intelligence sharing going on behind the scenes, between Ukraine & the USA, that we wont not off. But this is happening with such regularity that there has be something happening on the ground.

    As ever, Adam thank you for your time.

    Happy Birthday Patron! Glory to Ukraine!

  29. 29.

    Captain C

    @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Adam and the others with experience will probably give you a better answer, but from my layman’s point of view, if you invade an area with not enough and  inadequately competent troops who mistreat the locals, many of whom have cell phones and other modern communication devices (and probably hobbyist- or better-grade drones); and when you’re your operational security and logistics competence is a joke at best, you will have given your enemy a bleepload of willing artillery spotters, way more than you can police up.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: this is a subject in which I have a lot of trouble telling facts from journo-hype from calculated leaks designed to achieve certain policy goals unconnected to any truth or falsity in the leak,

    The qualms that I still have center on the fact that Iran is under some of the most draconian export-control technology sanctions in existence. This fact would certainly present considerable technical difficulties to an Iranian military drone design program, far exceeding any difficulty facing their Russian counterparts in recent years. The electronic controller packages would be the parts most directly affected by sanctions, yet these would be crucial to high-capability.

    And I can’t help reflecting on the fact that both the US and Israel, as well as the Gulf states and whatever “Abraham Accord” state currently still calculating it’s interests that way, would probably recognize an interest in ascribing complicity with Russia in the war to Iran, irrespective of whether Iran was in fact involved,

  34. 34.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L. Silverman: Thanks for the elaboration on the situation in the South, makes sense. So my take is that the UK MOD maps in that region were simply inaccurate & had failed to the capture the relative fluid situation between Mykolaiv & Kherson. The battle lines there may just now be solidifying, which the UK MOD map is finally catching up to. However, I would hope the UK MOD is not merely relying upon OSINT to draw their maps.

    On the Christopher Wray quote wrt Russia, China & Iran, & including the recent joint FBI/MI6 briefing on the dangers of Chinese influence operations – I get the sense what China has been doing is what great powers tend to do & have often done in the past to influence debates pertaining to it & perceptions of it in other countries, & not yet the kind of more aggressive/violent interventions that great powers have also employed (John Bolton just openly admitted to have planned coups in foreign countries, probably was talking about Venezuela). With all the interactions come avenues for influence, & that work both ways. The only way top close all avenues of influence is to completely decouple, which neither in the cards nor desirable, though that is the outcome some elements of the national security establishment in the US & UK are working toward. Certainly any interlocutor w/ Chinese counterparts need to be educated on such & dangers. Chinese interlocutors that interact w/ western counterparts are regularly warned & “educated” about Western influencing techniques.

    Not a whole has been said about Iranian efforts, but they seem to be what middle powers tended to influence the foreign policies of other powers.

    Russia remains the outlier. From the Chinese perspective, why bother getting your hands dirty & possibly get caught (& suffer the inevitable blow back) when Putin is more than willing to do the work, & more? Furthermore, while Putin’s operations may have exacerbated & accelerated the internal divisions in the US, US politics have devolve enough that the reactionary forces are more than willing & able to continue tearing the country apart to achieve a stranglehold on power, backed by plenty of reactionary money, & are fully intent on that course of action.

  35. 35.

    Jay

    @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:

    a proper ammo dump is hard to hide.

    You need to have several points of road access, access to local road junctions, ( distribution), and an internal “ring road” to facilitate loading.

    Then, based on the weight of ammo and consumption, you have a lot of military trucks commuting back and forth every day. (One single 20ton Kamaz truck can keep a single battery in ammo for an hour),

    To safely store the ammo, a limited amount needs to be stored in a “blow off” bunker, that if the ammo goes off, directs the energy and shrapnel upwards, with a roof to keep weather out, spaced far apart enough from each other, to prevent a chain reaction.

    So, they are hard to hide from eyes in the sky and eyes on the ground.

    Early on, (2013) and even today, I have seen RU/LPR/DPR defences outlined by highly visible trash just tossed out of the trenches and bunkers, with no attempt made to hide the waste, which stands out for miles,

    along with artillery positions with shells and charges out in the open, close to the guns, or stacked in crates, covered at best with a tarp, with no attempt to minimize the damage if they “cook off”.

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    If one drone Israeli drone strike destroyed 100 Iranian drones, then those drone were probably more DJI sized than Bayraktar sized. It would require a substantial air base to house 100 Bayraktar sized drones, & I am unaware of any military that would concentrate so many assets of a single type at one location.

  38. 38.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: The Brits are not solely relying on OSINT.

    The PRC is far more precise, far more cautious, and far more subtle than the Russians in there usage of diplomatic, information, economic, financial, and legal power than the Russians. They are also working on a far longer time scale.

    As for what’s going on domestically in the US, I think I’ve been very clear about what is currently happening, how we got here, and what is, unfortunately, likely to happen going forward.

  40. 40.

    Adam L. Silverman

    @Mallard Filmore: I think this is the well buried lede and the real meat of the reporting at that link:

    Fox News could not independently verify the claims, but Rebekah Koffler, a Russia expert and former intelligence officer in Russian doctrine and strategy for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), said it could serve as a strategy to distract Putin’s war effort in Ukraine.

    “The possibility of them taking advantage of Putin’s forces being tied up in Ukraine to assert their independence is very plausible,” she explained.

    It is unclear if the Chechen volunteer forces are strategizing with Kyiv by creating a second front, but Koffler noted that even if a second front is not fully launched in Chechnya, it could still strain Putin’s forces.

    It would “at least make Putin and the Russians believe that they will have to divert their attention and take eyes off Ukraine, so Ukrainians could launch a counter-offensive,” she said. “That’s very clever.”

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Podlet-K1 is an S-band radar designed to provide low altitude blind zone coverage to complement the main air search radars of the S400 SAM system, to detect low flying helicopters, cruise missiles & drones. I think the Russians got lazy & failed to regularly shift positions as they are supposed to, which is deadly in an environment w/ HIMARS’ range & accuracy. (Would have been taken out much faster if facing an opponent w/ competent Air Force & SEAD capabilities, such as NATO.)

    Looks like the HIMARS rocket destroyed the truck chassis, but the radar arrays may be intact, so the really valuable parts may still be salvageable.

  43. 43.

    Spadizzly

    Adam, this comment will probably join its predecessor in purgatory, but I just wanted to express my long overdue thanks for your comprehensive updates.  Much respect for the sheer effort involved in putting these together.   My wife and I have family ties to Ukraine: she’s from Kharkiv itself, and my parents were first-generation Americans, whose families were from the territories annexed by the rashists in 1939.
    Very thankful that Biden is in office; the thought of the alternative is what keeps me up nights.  Good night all.

  44. 44.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    @Jay: @CaptainC Thank you both. I’m a history buff, who knew zilch about the modern military until lately. I had no idea ammo dumps/depots were so conspicuous. I did guess that Ukrainian partisans would be doing all they could to make the Russians’ lives Hell. Alas, the Russians have figured it out too, & any Ukrainian in occupied territory with a cell phone has to be discreet in the extreme or there will be some nasty consequences.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L. Silverman: I was responding to the quote from Wray than  what you were saying. I agree w/ what you have written on US domestic politics, indeed your writings on the subject have crystalized for me the disparate & half formed thoughts I have had.

    On a side note, Chinese cyber espionage operations were once (in the late aughts & early teens) thought of as relatively unsophisticated compared to Russians or Americans, made up for it w/ volume, extremely brazen & didn’t care about being caught. Their significant successes in stealing information on sensitive military technologies were primarily due to the extremely poor cyber defense practices at US defense contractors. Since them, Chinese cyber espionage operations seem to have become far more sophisticated, technologically advanced, still brazen in scope but much more subtle in methods.

  47. 47.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Assuming the approach to Iran is real, that means Russia really isn’t getting any help from China. China is probably the most prolific supplier for attack drones (since the US had restricted sale of its drone for long time), good quality & capabilities at cheap prices, sold to customers across Central Asia, the Middle East & Africa.

    For all of the Bayraktar’s new found renown, 1st from the Azeri-Armenian war of 2021, then the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, it is a fairly standard product for its category. That Russia failed to make significant investments into this space is a huge blunder, the technological barrier is not high at all. Instead, they spent a lot of funds developing unmanned ground combat vehicles/robots, which have yet to make any impression on the battlefield in Ukraine. Probably because Russia did not have the funds to build them in numbers.

  48. 48.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    and they probably won’t get much help from Iran, either.

    Iran doesn’t have a lot of Manufacturing capability, barely enough for their own needs.

    On the other hand, “official” rumours that the RU is sourcing drones from Iran, keeps Iran in Russia’s orbit due to Western Sanctions.

  50. 50.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Carlo Graziani: I tried to stay away from certainty in conveying this Haaretz article. It’s pretty clear from the attacks on Saudi oil facilities last year that Iran has attack drones. Their Houthi allies claimed credit and said they produced and fired the drones but that seems really unlikely. The Israelis and Saudis are organizing an integrated air defense alliance to defend against something.

    The Iranians have an engineering base good enough to produce a lot of sophisticated centrifuges and the IAEA confirms this, so they can adapt to sanctions. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps now controls a sustantial piece of the Iranian economy which is why sanctions on the IRGC have apparently become a sticking point in the talks to revive the JCPOA.

    According to the article the Iranians went into drone development in the 1990s precisely because sanctions limited their ability to access larger aerial platforms. Still, Jake Sullivan’s warning about Iranian drones was intended to help justify President Biden’s Mideast trip and could well have been overstated.

    I summarized just some of the Haaretz article for people who would not look it up but it’s worth checking out. Haaretz seems fairly solid in their military reporting generally and the story may be worth reading.

     

    @YY_Sima Qian: The story about the strike on the Israeli drone base came out after Iran bombarded Irbil with several ballistic missiles. That part is clear and Iran admitted to it and warned the Kurdish government against collaboration with Israel. They did not say they were retaliating after a raid on a drone base, but they wouldn’t anyway. The strike may never have happened or might have caused less damage. Or maybe the Israelis used F-35 fighter bombers and put out a story that they used drones.

  52. 52.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: (I thought the above comment somehow disappeared so I rewrote it.)

    I tried to convey the Haaretz article without certainty. I summarized parts of it because people might not read the whole  thing, but Haaretz seems fairly solid in their military reporting and the article is worth checking out. The author did not endorse Jake Sullivan’s assertions but just went on to explain the relative positions of Russia and Iran in this area.

    It’s clear from attacks on Saudi oil facilities and a UAE airbase that Iran has some offensive drones. Tbe Houthis claimed credit and even say they produced the drones but that is not credible. The Saudis and Israelis are setting up coordination in air defense to defend against something.

    The IAEA can confirm that despite sanctions Iran is producing sophisticated centrifuges in quantity, because that agency is monitoring them. Iranians have a good base of engineering knowledge and it’s Revolutionary Guard Corps now controls a substantial piece of the industrial base, which is why sanctions against the IRGC have become a sticking point in talks to revive the JCPOA. The Haaretz article notes that Iran started investing in drone development in the 1990s because stringent sanctions prevented it from acquiring larger aerial platforms.

  53. 53.

    Geminid

    @Jay: Iran’s manufacturing capability is barely enough for their own needs, if you don’t count centrifuge arrays producing kilos of enriched U-235 uranium (according to the IAEA) plus shipping over 100,000 rockets to Lebanon (according to Aljazeera).

  54. 54.

    gvg

    @Adam L. Silverman: You know, I have not read them, but I had the impression they were “respectable”. You caught my eyes with this.  Do you think sometime when you have time, you could explain what you mean about this group being factually wrong? Keep in mind I am not a lawyer.

  55. 55.

    jonas

    @Mallard Filmore: ​
      Oof. That’s troubling to read, if true. Reinvigorating the Chechen resistance is a double-edged sword at best. Anything that’s a thorn in Putin’s side and that might take some pressure off Ukraine at this point is a good thing. On the other hand, Chechen rebels are mixed up with some bad shit, particularly ISIS and other radical groups and that’s something we definitely don’t want to empower.

  56. 56.

    Mel

    My respect for First Lady Zelenska is immense. Her love for Ukraine and her fierce determination to make the world see and understand the horrors of what this invasion and war are doing to the people of Ukraine come through in every action she takes.

    Thank you, Adam, as always, for your posts. They are much appreciated.

  57. 57.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: I guess that what I’m suggesting is that the usefulness of an Iranian-manufactured drone in Ukraina airspace 5 months into the war is negligible, if one judges such things by the standards of the uses that the Iranians have put their drones to in even the recent past.

    The most significant limiting factor would not be airframes or power plants, both of which would certainly be well within Iranian manufacturing capability, but rather electronics/avionics, which are heavily dependent on export-controlled industrial inputs. A military drone’s capabilities and battlefield usefulness are likely limited if its control package is vanilla. I would not expect much of their stealth, range, or responsiveness.

    My guess as to the survivability of these things over Ukraine is captured by the Terry Pratchett phrase “life expectancy of a pogo stick tester in a minefield”. I’m not sure it would be that safe to be a drone operator either.

  58. 58.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @zhena gogolia:

    Can’t put my finger on why, but I’m getting a kind of Russian smell from all the anti-Merrick Garland stuff.

    That’s exactly the sort of statement I’d expect a Russian influence operative to make in order to amplify an existing wedge.

    See how that works?

    As to having a smelly finger, well, we all have a few personal habits that are best not shared publicly… ;)

  59. 59.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: Iran may not ever supply drones to Russia, and if they do they probably won’t be a game changer as one of Pfeffer’s experts pointed out. But I don’t underestimate these drones’ effectiveness. I know very little about the technology involved, but I saw pictures of that Saudi oil processing facility and it was clear that those drones hit exactly what they were aimed at.

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