Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine).
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
A brief report on the passing day.
First of all, about the Antonivsky bridge in Kherson and other crossings in the region. Of course, they will all be rebuilt, but by us already.
We are doing everything to ensure that the occupiers do not have any logistical opportunities on our land.
Whatever plans they have, we will disrupt them. And we will liberate our territory with military, diplomatic and all other available means until we reach the legal borders of Ukraine.
Second, today the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved the appointment of a new Prosecutor General, Andriy Kostin. The person is decent, professional, he knows how to work systematically. Society considers the provision of everything necessary to hold Russia accountable for the war as one of his most important tasks. This is cooperation with the International Criminal Court, with partner states that help identify specific culprits among the Russian military; this is the recording of the facts of the crimes committed by the occupiers, ensuring the formation of an evidentiary base for the criminal prosecution of every war criminal. The Prosecutor General’s Office is one of the key institutions working to hold all Russian murderers and torturers accountable for their crimes against Ukrainians.
Third, we are preparing to increase our export of electricity to consumers in the European Union. Despite such a war, we ensured the connection of the energy grid of Ukraine to the energy system of the entire Europe in record time. Our exports allow us not only to earn foreign currency, but also to help our partners withstand Russian energy pressure.
We will gradually make Ukraine one of the guarantors of European energy security thanks to our domestic electricity production.
Fourth, we are preparing for very important political and diplomatic events scheduled for the second half of this week. First of all, this concerns tomorrow’s celebration of the Day of Ukrainian Statehood. But not only that. There will be more events, there will be more news. Every week we strengthen our state, every week we do things that bring us closer to the European Union, and every week we provide additional forces to confront Russia.
Fifth, a joint meeting of the International Sanctions Group was held today under the leadership of Andriy Yermak and Michael McFaul with the participation of representatives of the Ukrainian Parliament – the leadership of the Verkhovna Rada, factions and groups. New solutions are being developed that will increase the price for the war for Russia. In particular, there is an initiative to strengthen responsibility at the level of the European Union for evasion of sanctions and an initiative on mandatory disclosure of information about any business contacts, joint ownership of corporate rights and property with citizens of Russia. The Yermak-McFaul sanctions group will coordinate its work with representatives of our parliament.
And one more thing.
During the full-scale war, I awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine to 160 Ukrainian warriors. And among them is one of the most effective Ukrainian pilots, Major Oleksandr Kukurba. In April, in the Mariyinsky Palace, in the White Hall of Heroes of Ukraine, I presented the Gold Star Order to him. Major Kukurba died in battle yesterday. It was his hundredth combat sortie. A real Ukrainian hero whom we will always remember.
Eternal memory to all who died for Ukraine!
Glory to everyone who defends our state!
Glory to Ukraine!
Major Oleksandr Kukurba, a Sukhoi Su-25 pilot of the 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade (Mykolaiv), was killed in air combat on July 26.
He was previously awarded the Hero of Ukraine title.
He was 28. pic.twitter.com/QwSXDy6Hx4— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) July 27, 2022
Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Though the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
— Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)
Ukraine’s MOD posted an operational update today (I’m not emphasizing anything because I’d have to emphasize the whole update…):
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00, on July 27, 2022
Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred fifty fourth (154) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile strikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
The situation has not undergone significant changes in the Volyn, Polissya, and Siversky directions. The enemy shelled Mykolaivka, Tovstodubovo, Volfyne, Senkivka and a number of other settlements. In addition, it periodically carries out aerial reconnaissance of the positions of the defense forces in the border areas of Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy carried out fire damage with the use of barrel and rocket artillery, in particular in the areas of the settlements of Kharkiv, Chuguiv, Shevelivka, Krasnopillya and many others. With the help of pontoon crossings brought over water obstacles, it is trying to improve the logistical support of his units.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy carried out fire damage from tanks, barrel and rocket artillery in the areas of the settlements of Nortsivka, Bohorodychne, Dolyna, Chepil, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Adamivka, Mazanivka, Husarivka and others.
In the Kramatorsk direction, shelling was recorded near Kryvya Luka, Zakitne, Spirne, Hryhorivka, Tetyanivka, and other settlements. The enemy launched an air strike near Serebryanka. Actively involved UAV. It led an assault in the area of the Verkhnokamianske settlement, was unsuccessful, and withdrew.
In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy shelled civilian infrastructure, in particular, in the districts of Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Pokrovske and New York. It led shooting battles in the area of the settlement of Soledar, without success. Conducted a reconnaissance battle near Semihirya. Suffered fire damage and casualties and withdrew. Currently, hostilities are ongoing in the Semihirya and Kodema districts.
In the Avdiyivka, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy is systematically shelling civilian and military infrastructure in the areas of Pisky, Vremivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Karlivka, Opytne, Vuhledar, Hulyaipole, Kamianske and a number of others. An enemy unmanned aerial vehicle was recorded in the Pavlohrad area.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is concentrating its main efforts on preventing the advance of our troops. The enemy actively uses UAVs for aerial reconnaissance.
Conducted systematic shelling near Osokorivka, Trudolyubivka, Tokarevo, Kiselivka, Partizanske, Kavkaz, Lozove, Prybuzke, Polyana, and Luparevo. Airstrikes near Lyubomyrivka and Novomykolayivka.
The enemy carried out assaults in the Bilohirka area, was unsuccessful and retreated.
In the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, the enemy’s naval group continues to carry out reconnaissance, missile strikes on objects on the territory of Ukraine, as well as blocking civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
We need to pause here and deal with something important, which is that those of us observing and assessing what is going on in Ukraine through open sources, which should be everyone here, don’t have a complete view of the battlespace. This is because of Ukraine’s excellent information operations and warfare. PBS Newshour’s Simon Ostrovsky provides us with a comprehensive explanation:
Dozens of Ukrainian troops died in a July 17 Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv, unconfirmed by Ukraine’s military. I travelled to the city last week to produce this report for @NewsHour and saw first-hand the devastating toll Russia’s missiles are taking. https://t.co/fjqlcxE6sz
— Simon Ostrovsky (@SimonOstrovsky) July 27, 2022
Up to 40 soldiers died in a single strike on a series of warehouses, a volunteer rescue worker told me. The toll could be as high as 50, according to another source. We’re reporting this incident for the first time and it illustrates Ukraine’s desperate need for air defense. pic.twitter.com/RbtT8RokXh
— Simon Ostrovsky (@SimonOstrovsky) July 27, 2022
I often hear of outdated Russian rockets missing their targets but from what I saw in Mykolaiv, not only is Russia getting accurate coordinates for secret bases and supply dumps but they are hitting their marks. Mykolaiv region was hit with 129 missiles in two weeks. It’s scary.
— Simon Ostrovsky (@SimonOstrovsky) July 27, 2022
Soldiers at the front echoed what the Ukrainian government is saying: western supplied missile systems have helped stabilize the frontline & slowed Russia’s advance. But that’s not the whole story. The battle is now increasingly being fought with missiles far behind enemy lines. pic.twitter.com/NFjdC9HCNd
— Simon Ostrovsky (@SimonOstrovsky) July 27, 2022
For those of you who have been wondering about what is actually going on, why we’re only hearing about activity in certain locations, why we don’t seem to have good reporting on where all the Ukrainian forces or equipment is, it is because the Ukrainians are limiting the information available. Some of this is done to boost their own internal morale by keeping the negative information to a minimum while maximizing the positive news. Some of it is to flip that and use the positive news to demoralize the Russians. I don’t think that recognizing this reality changes the overall picture we’re seeing, limited as parts of that picture may be. The Ukrainians have done and are continuing to do far better than anyone expected, the Russians have done and are continuing to do far worse than anyone expected them to do, and the war has slowed down into a grapple along the lines of control and engagement in the east and south of Ukraine.
There was no DOD backgrounder today. however Natasha Bertrand has reported the following:
“We were briefed that over 75,000 Russians have either been killed or wounded [in Ukraine], which is huge…over 80% of their land forces are bogged down, and they're tired,” @RepSlotkin told @MZanona re: classified briefing House members just got from Biden admin officials.
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) July 27, 2022
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated macro level map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s updated map and latest assessment of the battle for Kherson:
KHERSON / 1200 UTC 27 JUL/ UKR precision artillery is targeting road and rail connections in and around Kherson. Informed by local partisans and embedded Ukrainian SOF, these attacks are intended to isolate Russian troops prior to UKR’s coming offensive. pic.twitter.com/5bLK2ixWqG
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 27, 2022
An image from occupied #Kherson where Ukrainian resistance is active and waiting for the #UkrainianArmy:
"Occupier, go home
or HIMARS will show you the way" pic.twitter.com/AzQkLcqS5k— Victoria Amelina 🇺🇦 (@vamelina) July 27, 2022
Footage of the damage on the Antonovskiy bridge after last night's strikes. Regional officials have closed traffic on the bridge.https://t.co/vbFgg2LsKK pic.twitter.com/GHLFYc6Qoc
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 27, 2022
That’ll buff right out…
This is a detailed thread on the damage to the Antonovskiy Bridge over the Dnipro River by a structural engineer explaining why it is likely out of commission for the remainder of the war. It has a lot of images an diagrams, so just click across and give it a read.
Also in the south, the Russians have become very, very wary of Ukraine’s mobile Harpoon systems. The Drive’s The War Room has the details:
Recent Russian missile strikes on the port city of Odesa likely were aimed at taking out Western-donated anti-ship missiles that threaten Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet and have prevented an amphibious landing by Russian troops in the region, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense.
The July 24 attacks hit Odesa’s docks and while Russia claimed to have hit a Ukrainian navy ship and a stockpile of anti-ship missiles, there “was no indication that such targets were at the location” where Russian missiles landed, according to the U.K. MoD’s latest intelligence assessment of the war.
“Russia almost certainly perceives anti-ship missiles as a key threat which is limiting the effectiveness of their Black Sea Fleet,” the U.K.’s assessment for July 26 said. “This has significantly undermined the overall invasion plan, as Russia cannot realistically attempt an amphibious assault to seize Odesa.”
Russia has been contending with Ukrainian anti-ship missiles since at least April, when a pair of domestically-produced Neptune missiles struck the Russian Navy’s Project 1164 Slava class cruiser Moskva, directly contributing to its sinking in the Black Sea. So influential has the historic sinking of that ship by Ukrainian forces been, that U.S. Chief of Naval Operations says it has reshaped his thoughts on terminal defense of U.S. Navy warships.
NATO nations began sending other anti-ship missile designs in May when Denmark promised Ukraine two shore-based RGM-84 Harpoon missile launchers and an unspecified number of rounds for the system. Also in June, the U.S. Defense Department announced its own shipment of two Harpoon missile systems. Although only for short-range defense, like repelling an amphibious landing, Sweden announced it would send, as part of its third aid package to Ukraine, Robot 17 short-range coastal defense systems, in June.
The same month, Ukraine claimed to have damaged the Russian rescue vessel Vasily Bekh, striking it twice with what several Ukrainian officials said were U.S-donated Harpoon missiles while the ship was transporting personnel, weapons, and ammunition to heavily contested Snake Island. The strike was Ukraine’s first use of Harpoon missiles in combat.
Part of the reason for flooding Kyiv with donated anti-ship missiles was to help alleviate the pressure on Ukraine’s ports by Russian naval vessels. Millions of tons of harvested grain are sitting in Ukrainian ports, which are being kept closed to the rest of the world by the Russian Navy. In doing so, Moscow is effectively weaponizing a food shortage by cutting off the world from Ukraine’s agricultural bounty.
With a relatively potent arsenal of anti-ship missiles at its disposal, Ukraine can still hold Russian ships blockading its Black Sea ports at risk, though it cannot eliminate Moscow’s Black Sea fleet. Harpoon missiles have a range of about 70 miles and can keep Russian ships far enough from shore to keep them from launching an amphibious operation, but are not able to go after them throughout the Black Sea.
More at the link!
Despite assertions by a number of “experts”, there is no operational pause in the Donbas.
The Russians are storming the positions of Ukrainian forces along almost the entire front line in the Donbas.
— Stanislav Aseyev (@AseyevStanislav) July 27, 2022
So much for the ‘operational pause’ in Donbas.
Russians have launched frontal attacks against Ukrainian defenses in Avdiivka and Mariinka (north and west of occupied Donetsk), following a hard artillery barrage.— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) July 27, 2022
We have two different reports of two different major counterintelligence problems in the US. Both related to Russia. Both from The Daily Beast.
The first, from yesterday, deals with a Texas couple who adopted the identities of dead infants.
A Texas man spent 20 years in the U.S. Coast Guard using a dead baby’s stolen identity, obtaining a secret-level security clearance and baffling investigators who later uncovered information that the man and his wife—who also lived under an assumed name—may have had ties to Russian intelligence, according to court filings reviewed by The Daily Beast.
Walter Glenn Primrose, 67, and Gwynn Darle Morrison, also 67, are accused of carrying out a mysterious scheme in which they masqueraded under pilfered personas for decades. Primrose, who retired from the Coast Guard as an avionics technician in 2016, then went on to work as a cleared defense contractor at U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Barbers Point in Hawaii.
He continues to hold a government-issued security clearance, which investigators say he has had for more than two decades. Last year, a Russian spy ship was observed lurking off the coast of Hawaii for several days. In 2021, a Russian vessel was tracked near Hawaiian waters, in an incident one expert said echoed the activities of the Cold War era.
In 1987, investigators allege, Primrose and Morrison “both obtained Texas birth certificate records for deceased American born infants, that they used to unlawfully assume the identities of ‘Bobby Edward Fort’ and ‘Julie Lyn Montague,’ respectively.” The two “have been perpetrating criminal fraud acts ever since,” according to the complaint.
In 1994, at the age of 39, Primrose joined the Coast Guard—eight years over the maximum enlistment age. But as Bobby Fort, he was only 27.
For the next two decades, Primrose served as Fort, stationed at Barbers Point and becoming treasurer of the Hawaiian Islands chapter of the Coast Guard Chief Petty Officers’ Association.
Primrose and Morrison settled into their new life together, making their home in Kapolei, on the island of Oahu.
When his hitch with the Coast Guard was up, Primrose—still successfully pretending to be Fort—got a job with an unnamed defense contractor, “where he continues to work currently,” the complaint states.
They believe the couple have established false identities beyond just those of Fort and Montague, saying that federal agents seized correspondence found at their home “in which the greetings in the letters refer to defendants by names other than Bobby, Julie, Walter, or Gwynn,” the memo states, adding that a “close associate” of Morrison’s told investigators that she lived in Romania for a period during the Soviet era.
Primrose, as a Coast Guard avionics technician, “has become highly skilled in electronics and would be able to communicate surreptitiously with others if released from pretrial confinement,” the memo says.
And, perhaps most chillingly: “Federal agents have also seized photographs from the defendants’ residence that depict the defendants apparently some years ago wearing what have been identified as KGB uniforms.”
Jan Neumann, a former FSB counterintelligence officer who defected to the U.S. in 2008, told The Daily Beast that successfully co-opting another person’s identity takes “a special skill.”
“What inspired them to do so?” Neumann asked. “What was the trigger? Who taught them how to do it right? And why?”
In 1987, when Primrose and Morrison allegedly launched the bizarre scheme, there were “no computers, no Google, no nothing,” Neumann continued. “1987 compared to now is like the Stone Age. To develop the legends, to create the legends, that’s a special skill.”
More at the link!
The second, from today, involves a Russian diplomatic facility in the Bronx:
The State Department is so worried that a Russian diplomatic compound in the Bronx is serving as a Russian spy hub that it held a classified briefing about the compound on Friday.
The previously unreported briefing touched on concerns about the compound and its potential ties to Russian espionage operations—concerns which Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) raised in March of this year when he sent a letter to the Directors of the FBI, CIA, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Departments of Homeland Security and Justice.
Torres, a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, requested that the Biden Administration consider opening an investigation into the compound in order to protect the country against Russian espionage.
It’s not clear what the outcome of the meeting was. Torres declined to comment on what was discussed in the meeting, citing the classified nature of the gathering. Due to security reasons, the State Department also declined to share details about the meeting.
But the compound—located at 355 West 255th St. in Riverdale, NY—has long been suspected to serve not only as a residence for Russian diplomats, but also as an outpost for Russian intelligence agencies. Ever since the austere, 20-story white building in the complex was constructed in the 1970s to serve as an enclave for Russian diplomats working at the United Nations (UN), it’s been the focus of speculation that the Russians are using the building’s towering perch to conduct surveillance, evade U.S. intelligence operatives, and conduct other spy work.
Many Russian spies have been linked to the complex over the years. Earlier this year the United States expelled 12 Russian diplomats from Moscow’s UN mission for conducting intelligence operations against the United States. The Russian mission said at the time that most of its diplomats lived in the building.
In a classic case of spy versus spy, U.S. intelligence operatives have been working to track the Russian agents there for years. Robin Dreeke, a former FBI Special Agent and Head of the Counterintelligence Behavioral Analysis Program, told The Daily Beast that he and fellow FBI agents tried to track and recruit Russian spies known to live at the compound.
“They are known intelligence officers that work at the United Nations,” Dreeke told The Daily Beast, adding that they communicated some of their information back to Moscow from the Riverdale complex itself. “Being a diplomat is their day job, but really probably 90 percent of their job is being an intelligence officer, collecting on information gaps on behalf of Russia. They live there, guaranteed.”
New York and the Riverdale complex are teeming with Russian intelligence operatives, said John Sipher, who previously worked for the CIA’s clandestine service and ran Russian operations at headquarters.
“Russians have always had a very, very robust intelligence collection there,” Sipher told The Daily Beast. “New York is one of the premier spy cities in the world. There’s probably more targets of interest to foreign intelligence officers in New York than almost anywhere else, except perhaps, Washington.”
Although the contents of the State Department’s classified briefing aren’t clear, the status of the compound still appears to hang in the balance. The kind of investigation Torres is asking about—one that touches on counterespionage—would typically fall to the FBI, which is the top agency in the United States for preventing, investigating, and exposing intelligence operations in the United States.
But the FBI is deferring to the State Department. The FBI has told Torres that the question of whether the Russian diplomatic compound in Riverdale poses a national security risk or threat is not the bureau’s jurisdiction, and that it is instead up to the State Department’s Office of Foreign Missions (OFM), Torres told The Daily Beast.
It’s a curious turn of events that leaves the compound in something of a no man’s land, as it would be best to assume there is some espionage activity tied to the compound, according to Larry Pfeiffer, a former chief of staff to the CIA Director and former senior director of the White House Situation Room.
“It would be normal for any U.S. counterintelligence organization to assume that any and every Russian facility is going to be a place where espionage is conducted,” Pfeiffer, a former NSA analyst, told The Daily Beast.
But the FBI’s decision to back off doesn’t add up given its keen interest in the compound, according to Sipher.
“That seems really odd to me. There’s a long history of the FBI in particular watching that compound up there for a variety of reasons,” Sipher told The Daily Beast. “The FBI has recruited a number of Russian spies who lived in the Riverdale complex over the years, and they know from their reporting that they use the place to try to hide from the FBI.”
Much, much more at the link!
I think it is important to keep in mind that the US’s counterintelligence capabilities have been allowed to atrophy since the end of the Cold War. What could possibly go wrong?
Finally, CNN is reporting that the Biden administration has come to a decision on and proposed a deal to get both Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan home.
After months of internal debate, the Biden administration has offered to exchange Viktor Bout, a convicted Russian arms trafficker serving a 25-year US prison sentence, as part of a potential deal to secure the release of two Americans held by Russia, Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan, according to people briefed on the matter.
These sources told CNN that the plan to trade Bout for Whelan and Griner received the backing of President Joe Biden after being under discussion since earlier this year. Biden’s support for the swap overrides opposition from the Department of Justice, which is generally against prisoner trades.
“We communicated a substantial offer that we believe could be successful based on a history of conversations with the Russians,” a senior administration official told CNN Wednesday. “We communicated that a number of weeks ago, in June.”
The official declined to comment on the specifics of the “substantial offer.” They said it was in Russia’s “court to be responsive to it, yet at the same time that does not leave us passive, as we continue to communicate the offer at very senior levels.”
“It takes two to tango. We start all negotiations to bring home Americans held hostage or wrongfully detained with a bad actor on the other side. We start all of these with somebody who has taken a human being American and treated them as a bargaining chip,” the official said. “So in some ways, it’s not surprising, even if it’s disheartening, when those same actors don’t necessarily respond directly to our offers, don’t engage constructively in negotiations.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Wednesday that the US presented a “substantial proposal” to Moscow “weeks ago” for Whelan and Griner, who are classified as wrongfully detained. The top US diplomat said he intended to discuss the matter on an expected call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week.
The families of Whelan, who has been held by Russia for alleged espionage since 2018, and WNBA star Griner, jailed in Moscow for drug possession since February, have urged the White House to secure their release, including via a prisoner exchange if necessary.
Griner, who pleaded guilty in early July but said she unintentionally brought cannabis into Russia, testified in a Russian courtroom Wednesday as part of her ongoing trial on drug charges, for which she faces up to 10 years in prison. It is understood that her trial will have to conclude prior to a deal being finalized, according to US officials familiar with the Russian judicial process and the inner workings of US-Russia negotiations.
My assessment of this deal, provided the reporting is accurate, is that it’s a terrible deal in that Bout is not someone you want walking free. And in the sense that we’re basically rewarding Putin and Russia for arresting Americans for bullshit reasons and then throwing the book at them and giving them extremely long sentences in some of the most brutal prisons outside of Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas.
However, it’s a good deal in terms of it gets these two home as soon as possible. And since we can’t send a SEAL team in to extract them, if this is what it takes to get them home, then it is what it is.
Your daily Patron!
Woof. Me on working mode. Have to be strong and serious—true professional. pic.twitter.com/ub8bCybTxe
— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 27, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Дякую вам, мої любі! Усіх лизьнув❤️ #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption translates as:
Thank you, my dears! Everyone was licked❤️ #pespatron #patrondsns
Open thread!
planetjanet
Oh, my. The espionage story is very disconcerting, on many levels.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I understand Ukraine not wanting to toss out every negative detail of the day, but then hearing about some of those details makes me want to scream-cry for hours, but then also I think it’s important that we have a full (or at least fuller) understanding of where things truly stand.
But also I just hate russia so much.
I’ve been frustrated when I see articles mention that the Biden admin is reluctant to send certain weapons which would have the capability to reach beyond russia’s borders. (I won’t try to use any more specific term than “weapon” since I would almost assuredly get it wrong.) So russia is rampaging all over Ukrainian lands but Ukraine shouldn’t set a metaphorical toe over the border? I am no military/political/diplomatic/literally any kind of expert, and I won’t pretend to understand all the intricacies of this shit. But this annoys me. Bleh.
Patron always looks so dignified and dapper in his vest. So that is a good thing.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Mike in NC
A toy company called FCTRY has just released an action figure of President Zelenskyy. They previously did figures of Obama, Fauci, Harris, AOC, and Ginsburg. Sales to benefit Ukraine.
Major Major Major Major
Thanks as always Adam.
@planetjanet: Speaking of, time to watch The Americans. On season six… almost done!
counterfactual
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: It turns out *not* sending them is almost as effective as sending them. /when the Biden Administration said they would not sent the longest-ranged HIMARS ammo, the Russians immediately decided they were lying and did things like move the Baltic fleet from Crimea to Russia out of range.
Ohio Mom
I have cousins in Riverdale, it’s a nice neighborhood on the west side of the Bronx, it’s own little enclave. It’s walkable and parts are very posh. Lucky Russians who get to live there.
Looks like the security clearance process for Walter Glenn Primose was a bit lacking. He had a nice living situation too, all those years in Hawaii.
Makes you wonder about all the spies we have yet to identify.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Mike in NC: Thanks for sharing! Looks like it hasn’t been released yet–it’s just that the Kickstarter is fully funded so it’s going into production:
You can still back it, though………which I might have just done :)
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Mike in NC: (For some reason, my first reply went into moderation. Looks like the Kickstarter is fully funded and the figure is going into production, so won’t be released for a bit yet.)
Chetan Murthy
Major Kukurba … a hundred sorties. That’s two sorties every three days for … five months. Rest in peace, Major. Rest in power.
featheredsprite
Thank you Adam.
One of the hardships of war is the frustration of supporters not actually on the scene.
Andrya
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I agree. To say the Ukrainians cannot strike inside russian borders, morally speaking, is like saying that in 1944/45 the allies were OK to kick the Germans out of France, but had no right to cross the Rhine. Ridiculous! You start an existential war, you risk it coming for you.
I suspect the reasoning is that striking inside russia will trigger WW3. I don’t believe it. If putin were willing to risk WW3, the weapons we have already donated would be a casus belli.
The Moar You Know
Why the hell would any American go to Russia in 2022? Serious question; doing so involves a real risk of being picked up and shipped off somewhere hellish until and unless they can trade you for someone of value.
Dangerman
@The Moar You Know: I wonder what I’d trade for Rand Paul or any other other July 4th travelers? I suppose a Slurpee since 7/11 is walking distance. Small. Not a Big Gulp.They can keep him if they want a Big Gulp.
jonas
Well for the same reason Russian and Chinese support for the Viet Cong didn’t trigger WWIII back in the day. You don’t go nuclear over a proxy war. Had the VC or North Vietnamese launched a Russian-supplied missile into the continental US, who knows what would have happened. Repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis: Nothing Good.
West of the Rockies
I suspect a lot of us have read articles suggesting the tide will turn on Russia in mid August. That’s just under three weeks away. I hope the prognostications are correct.
Andrya
@The Moar You Know: Ms. Griner was arrested before the beginning of the Ukraine war. Up to that point, as far as I know (everyone- please correct me if I’m wrong) russia did not have a pattern of arresting Americans/Europeans to serve as hostages. I don’t think she could reasonably be expected to anticipate what happened.
Andrya
@jonas: You make a good point, but I stand by what I said. If Ukraine launched a missile at Moscow, that could be WW3. If Ukraine launched a missile at a russian artillery station on the UK border, which was actively strafing Ukraine, I doubt it. That’s what Alison Rose and I are advocating.
In my opinionated opinion, we need to stop pulling our punches, because if TFG gets re-elected (God forbid) he will switch the US from supporting UK to supporting russia. We need to wrap this up before 2024.
jonas
Not sure how accurate the figure of 75,000 killed or wounded on the Russian side is, but if true those are seriously WWI-level casualty numbers. Putin is a certifiable madman.
The casualty figures on the Ukrainian side may be just as serious per capita, but at least they’re defending their homeland rather than just feeding young men into a meat grinder for one man’s delusions of grandeur.
Steve in the ATL
@The Moar You Know: damn straight. No reason to go unless you are burnishing your Republican Party credentials with your totally not gay Putin fealty.
gene108
@The Moar You Know:
Russian women’s pro-basketball league pays better than the WNBA. Edit: Lots of American women play professional basketball overseas during the WNBA offseason. I doubt Griner was the only American woman playing in the Russian league.
Things hadn’t totally turned to shit until February. Griner was on her way out of the country, at the airport, when Russian customs inspected her luggage and found something with CBD (I can’t remember if it was CBD oil or something to use to vape with), which got her arrested.
I think Russia wanted a hostage, before the invasion. She was on her way out of the country.
jonas
Russian artillery on the Russian border isn’t anywhere close to striking Ukrainian forces at the moment, or vice-versa. If — G-d willing — the Ukrainians beat back the Russians in coming months and reoccupy territory in the Donbas, e.g., and the fighting gets close to the Russian border and things are getting desperate, I can see Putin threatening to go ballistic — pun intended — if any US or NATO-supplied arms hit anything inside Russia. Pretty rich coming from a guy whose weapons downed MH17, but like most fascists, Putin doesn’t do irony.
YY_Sima Qian
The accurate Russian targeting merely reinforce that a significant percentage (if not the vast majority) of the strikes in civilian facilities are deliberate & are aimed to terrorize.
It also suggests that there are Russian sympathizers in Ukrainian controlled territories proving tactical intel to Russia. This explains the house cleaning Zelenskyy is carry out to send a clear message to the bureaucracy, & recent comments by the mayor of Mykolaiv saying “he trusts no one”.
Andrya
@jonas: Well, that was my point. Right now, it’s probably not necessary for UK to hit targets inside russia- but I don’t see how UK drives russia out of south/eastern UK without hitting (military) targets inside russia (albeit close to UK).
Let me repeat a point that I’ve made previously- if UK yields territory in south/eastern UK to russia, not only is that horrible for the people living there, but it simply means putin will come back in 3-5 years to take more territory. UK CANNOT yield territory to end the war.
gene108
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
How would this war escalate, if Ukraine started attacking inside Russia with U.S. supplied missiles?
Other countries may jump in on the side of Russia, whether overtly or covertly, if the war escalates. Russia’s relative isolation may not last, if Ukraine launches revenge strikes against Russian cities.
YY_Sima Qian
@jonas:
They are near Kharkov & Sumy.
I too advocate allowing the Ukrainian Army to use western supplied weapons s to strike military targets w/in Russia. NATO & Allie’s have already imposed limits by refraining from supply Ukrainian w/ weapons that have > 300 KM range, & to my knowledge have not supplied ER GMLRS rockets w/ 150 km range for the HIMARS & the M270 systems. NATO can further place a limit on how far into Russia (say, 50 km) can Ukraine strike using NATO supplied weapons.
Another Scott
Thanks for the update. The reminders about the “fog of war” and limited reporting are good ones.
You quote a story that forces me to comment…
No computers??! I distinctly remember a field trip to an IRS facility in Atlanta in the late 1960s where they had arrays of IBM tape drives (with a glass door that slid down when a button was pushed) – I got to help load a tape (15 times around the take-up spool if I remember right).
TV was mostly black and white back then, also too.
The Apple I was released in April 1976. The IBM PC was released in August 1981. There were (electronic) computers decades before that. There were nearly 30,000 networks on the Internet by the end of 1987.
Yeah, Gopher and WWW and so forth came later.
Neumann has a compelling story to tell. He didn’t have to be hyperbolic about it.
(sigh)
Cheers,
Scott.
jonas
Actually, they do. Google Paul Whelan and Trevor Reed. The Saudis, Iranians, and Chinese pull this shit all the time as well. Pick up US citizens on minor violations and then charge them with serious crimes with long prison sentences in order to extract diplomatic concessions or prisoner releases in exchange. They guy the Russians want for Griner is a serious war criminal. She’s being held for allegedly having a cannabis tincture in her vape pen.
Andrya
@gene108: No one is advocating revenge strikes against russian cities. Both for moral reasons and also because that is simply bad strategy. (In 1940, one of Hitler’s many important strategic mistakes was to switch the Luftwaffe’s bombing attacks from Royal Air Force facilities to British cities- this literally probably enabled Britain to survive 1940.)
What I and others are advocating is that the Ukrainian military be authorized to strike MILITARY facilities inside russia, but close to the russia/UK border, that are actively engaged in the war.
VOR
@gene108: Per Wikipedia, Ms. Griner was arrested February 17th, a full week before the Ukraine conflict kicked off in earnest. She had played for a Russian team for several years previously so this was not her first visit to Russia. The Wikipedia article doesn’t reveal her Russian salary, but it notes that in her first year playing overseas, for a Chinese team, she made 12 times her WNBA salary.
Chetan Murthy
@jonas: First, I want Ms. Griner and Mr. Whelan to be able to come home. Because they’re fellow Americans. But that said, I always find it kind of odd that Americans visit geopolitical adversaries with whom our government doesn’t have good relations, and then want our government to bail them out.
A decade ago, my employer asked me if I’d take an overseas assignment to one of its “country subsidiaries”. I responded that sure, I’d do it, but not to any geopolitical adversary. So that eliminated China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan [sure, we wink/wink pretend they’re an ally]. Also no Brazil, b/c no country where my safety would be at risk. And I noted that I included Iran even though I fervently wish that someday Iran will no longer be an adversary.
I mean, if I’m going to count on my country sending soldiers to risk their lives to rescue me, or to trade significant bargaining chips for same (like Viktor Bout [spit]), I ought to at least listen to the State Department and exercise some prudence.
OK. All that said, we should bring Ms. Griner and Mr. Whelan home. They’re Americans, and they didn’t do anything *wrong* — just imprudent.
Andrya
@jonas: You have a good point, but Trevor Reed had been drunk and disorderly in russia, although his sentence was wildly disproportionate. My point was simply that there wasn’t enough incidents of this kind of thing to say that Ms. Griner was wrong to go to russia- and two cases, one of which involved misconduct by the westerner, was probably not enough to alert Ms. Griner. Iran is a totally different case- their have been dozens of incidents over many years, and any European or American who travels to Iran should know they are risking their liberty and their life.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya:
Again, I want Ms. Griner to be able to come home. But: any American, *any American* who went to Russia after 2016 was either a traitor or an idiot. They’ve been waging war against us, and at some points quite successfully. To just ignore that because it fattens her wallet was singularly stupid.
Another Scott
@jonas: The KyivIndependent says that russia has “lost” approximately 39,870 troops since the February re-invasion (it’s not clear to me whether that’s killed and wounded total).
Reuters:
They are huge numbers in a short period of time. (And it shows how amazingly well the Pentagon did in protecting US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan for so many years.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: OK, we agree to disagree. The evidence was not definitive, and I don’t expect a basketball player to be an expert on international relations. Maybe I am a bit too forgiving.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya:
Whereas I am bitter and will hold these grudges for the rest of my life. I feel that even an entertainer should know enough about their country, to know when it’s been attacked, and by whom. I feel like that’s a low bar. But hey, native-born Americans aren’t required to actually know anything about our country to become naturalized, so I can get it: the native-born can afford to be idiots.
Regardless, we should bring her and Mr. Whelan home. Idiocy isn’t a crime.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Let me suggest an outlet for your bitterness that we can both agree on: write to President Biden and ask him to pardon Reality Winner (who has recently requested a presidential pardon). To refresh everyone’s memory, Ms. Winner became aware of russian interference in the 2016 election, which information had been classified, and leaked it to Glenn Greenwald (not the best choice, obviously). If this information had been made public, as I believe it should have been, it would have been much easier for American citizens to discern that russia was an adversary. Deal?
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: Excellent idea. I’ll write him tomorrow. Thank you!
Carlo Graziani
I’ve had a growing intuition about the next phase of the campaign — call it a hinky feeling — that doesn’t really match the expectations of most analysts, who are essentially all fixated on Kherson Oblast as the theater of the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive. This hinky feeling is based on enough circumstantial evidence that once I update my priors (none of us can help our priors) the scenario that I’m looking at comes out at a subjective posterior probability that I would characterize as somewhere between 1:10 and 1:20 odds. At that level of probability, I haven’t really been comfortable speaking openly about it, because if it’s right, I wouldn’t want to spoil it—even though it’s all just me making up stuff, and that probability is, as I say, subjective.
If I’m right, however, everything is about to go down in the next 12 hours or so, so there’s no longer any chance that some obscure commenter on a random blog making shit up can do any real harm. And as you guys know, I like sharing this kind of stuff. I still don’t feel comfortable enough to ask WaterGirl to make a Front Page post of it, but a long comment is, I think, OK. Adam, I hope you don’t mind.
To set it up, here’s the evidence, such as I see it:
In the first place there’s that manpower issue that we’ve been over. We know that the Ukrainian army (UA), on paper, has access to about 900,000 trained reservists ages 20-55. Not all of those are really callup-worthy, but certainly there are necessarily a lot more than have come to account in the battle in the East. Recall that the UA has been preparing for this war since 2014, and manpower is almost its only advantage over the Russian army. The idea that they would now be fighting the Russians on equal manpower terms beggars belief. In any event, suddenly everyone expects a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast, so where did the soldiers required for that appear from?
Also, Ukraine started the war with about 220 donated T-72s (200 from Poland, 20 or so from the Czech Republic). There have not been any large-scale tank battles reported in the East. Some of those tanks were used to create firing positions in the Donbas and certainly destroyed, and it’s hard to estimate how many remain, but conservatively let’s say they still have at least 50% of those tanks. That’s 110+ available T-72s, somewhere.
I’ve been attempting to count HIMARS, which is hard, because the striking range of their GMLRS munitions is about 70 km (43 miles), and the launchers can travel at near-highway speeds, so a single unit can play merry hell deep within a long linear frontage. It seems to me that just a single unit could have been harassing the Kherson theatre, whereas the Donbas might have been getting the attention of 3-4 HIMARS. Until mid-July, there were 8 in-country, and there should be 12 by now. Also, they have been very conservative with munition expenditures, using a few at a time to hit high-value targets. I haven’t been successful in locating sources documenting how many M31 rockets the UA has received. On balance, however, it seems plausible to me that 8-9 HIMARS units in Ukraine haven’t spoken yet, and that the Ukrainians may have stockpiled a substantial ammo dump for them.
The battlefield has also gotten strangely stretched and molded. The Russians seem to have forgotten the trick that allowed them to convert the initial appalling failure of their 4-theatre campaign into a limited success: concentration of force. Now they have a two-active-theatre campaign going again, with the two theatres at the opposite ends of the battlefield, only weakly communicating with each other (if at all). If you squint, and look at this in the right light, it’s as if the Ukrainians have actually encouraged this: They’ve been methodically grinding down Russian infantry and tankers in the Donbas, by a gradual and orderly set of fighting retreats—with never a rout—while making a huge racket around Kherson, announcing the coming campaign to liberate the city, triggering partisan activity, and using HIMARS strikes to blow up ammo dumps and C3 and bridges over the Dnipro.
At the same time, the intermediate region between Kherson and the Donbas (Melitopol-Zaporizhzhia) has been oddly quiet, with no military activity and only minor partisan actions. This has reportedly allowed the Russians to thin out forces in the area so as to send reinforcement columns from Melitopol towards Kherson.
A couple of weeks ago, the Ukrainian government issued a communique announcing the forthcoming campaign to liberate Kherson, urging civilians to evacuate Russian-controlled areas by any means available to them. They issued this communique to civilians in both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Thursday, July 29, is the new moon, a “traditional” time for launching surprise night attacks that open offensives, since darkness rewards surprise and initiative. A less traditional reason might be the possibility that the UA has requested, and been supplied with, large quantities of NATO-standard night-vision equipment, which would provide a tactical advantage over most Russian units (I have no knowledge that this equipment has been supplied). End of Civil Twilight (beginning of true dark) is 8:51 PM Melitopol local time. That is 1:51 PM EDT.
OK, that’s the setup. Here’s what I think may be about to happen:
***
I think it is possible that the UA has a combined-arms mobile task force hiding in Zaporizhzhia, preparing to strike South, towards Melitopol. In this scenario, the Kherson “offensive” has been a deception operation intended to draw the bulk of the Russian ground forces in the Southern theatre West, towards Kherson, and leave Melitopol weakly defended. Melitopol (have a quick look at Google Maps, I’ll wait) being the gateway to Crimea.
In this scenario, in a little over 12 hours from when I post this, a strong advance force is going to attack and brush away the Russian roadblock on the E-105 N-S highway connecting Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol, clearing any mines and other obstacles or otherwise creating a path for the rest of the task force onto the highway, and the force will drive the 120 km (75 miles) to Melitopol. Tanks, APCs and other motorized infantry will lead 8-9 HIMARS lagging by 30-40 km. HIMARS will respond to forward spotter requests with fire missions against points of resistance, acting as substitutes for airstrikes by close air support. The Ukrainian AF will fly CAP. At the same time, partisan activity in the region will go from 0 to 11, with Russians getting their throats slit or their cars blown up or simply shot, road signs taken down, ambushes, IEDs, the usual.
The TF will have to drop off some covering units along the way, but if the deception worked, the main force should be in Melitopol in a few hours. They may have to fight their way to the intersection with the M-14 highway (this connects Melitopol to Kherson in the West and to Berdyansk in the East) where they will send teams East and West to set up blocking forces on the Eastern and Western approaches. The city itself will have to be cleared of Russian forces by follow-on Ukrainian Army forces, because the task force has only completed the first part of its task.
The TF now saddles up again. With most of the force not required to secure Melitopol and the M-14, and some moiety of the HIMARS units (with their camouflaged munition trucks, and a lot of force protection around them, and a shit-ton of fuel trucks as well) they now start up their engines and head off for another little drive: 400 km (about 250 miles) into the Crimean Peninsula…
…to Kerch. To seize and destroy the Kerch Straits bridge.
The HIMARS units can actually get started on this key objective by fire missions on their way, once they get to within 70 km or so from Kerch. They can probably only really repairably damage the deck, though, which is why the TF needs to seize the Western end of the bridge itself. At that point, tanks can fire at bridge supports, or sappers and engineers together with the tools of their trade can exercise their ingenuity to their fullest to ensure that the damn thing goes down and stays down.
The mission is risky as hell. I’d shit myself if I had to order or organize it. The TF would be exposed and alone the whole way, all 400 km of it, reliant on nothing but surprise and its own armament, and initiatives. But the whole thing could conceivably all be over in 36 hours. The Russians might not even understand or believe what had happened to them until it is much too late to do anything, even if they had any resources with which to respond—it wouldn’t be the first time.
And now, it’s a new war. All Russian forces in Crimea, and in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, have a choice of either surrendering or slitting their own throats. They’ll never see another resupply mission. And at the rate that the Russian army has shown itself capable of advancing by its “artillery-only” tactics in the Donbas—a kilometer or two per week—those forces can expect relief by 2026. Mass surrenders in the face of Kremlin orders to fight to the last man are likely. Basically it’s a mopping-up job at this point. The Black Sea coast and Crimea are back in Ukrainian possession. The Azov coast, the Donbas, and the environs of Kharkhiv remain to be addressed.
***
That’s it. So, really, how likely is this? As I said, I gave a subjective probability. I’m not certain at all. For reference, I could compare the uncertainty that I feel for this scenario to the uncertainty in a weather forecast in Chicago. 5%-10% is probably better that a 12-day forecast, but a lot worse than a 2-day forecast. Call it a 5-day forecast.
I don’t mind being wrong, so long as I show my work. If the scenario above is wrong, then at least I’ve given you a few minutes of happy-ending techno-military fiction, which is not nothing in these dark times.
If the scenario is at least partly right, however (I would not expect to get most of the details right) then perhaps it can be a useful guide to what’s likely to be a confusing few days. Remember always, the #1 rule of late-breaking hot-take news, especially from war zones: 95% of first reports are bullshit, because filling dead air in an information vacuum is the top priority of journalists, who wind up repeating each other’s rumors as confirmed news if they hear them twice. The first approximation to a full picture never emerges until days after the event. That was true after February 26, and it will remain true whatever happens this week. What Adam wrote in this update is absolutely correct: the Ukrainians are exercising absolute control of all aspects of information released to media as a coordinated part of their war effort. In an operation such as I’ve imagined, information security would be paramount at all stages. The fiction of the “Kherson offensive” would continue to have value, because it would prevent the Russians from perceiving their danger. The only duty with respect to truth in war is toward oneself–one may lie to others with impunity so long as one’s war aims are served…
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Carlo, if UA could do this, could they not just take Nova Kakhovka, and cut off Crimea’s water supply? Wouldn’t that accomplish the same end, but without all the risk ?
bookworm1398
About 250,000 Americans visited Russia every year for the last few years. Less than a dozen are political detainees. The personal risk of getting arrested was low. Same for other countries, these cases get a lot of attention but aren’t really many of them.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Given that Ukraine controlled that supply between 2014 and 2022, I would have to say that it did not appear to provide the kind of leverage required to expel the Russians from Crimea.
Anyway, my story has the benefit of an expiration date. It will be right or wrong by some time tomorrow, and knowably right or wrong not long after.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: it’s a fair cop.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-the-water-crisis-in-crimea/
when you cut out agriculture and exports of bottled water, you don’t need anywhere near as much water.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: That is an interesting proposition. I too find it strange that the Ukrainian Army has been subtly & not so subtly telegraphing an offensive toward Kherson for so long. I would not be completely surprised that all of the Kherson related talks & actions are something of a faint, & that the Ukrainian Army’s counterattack actually starts elsewhere, & Zaporizhzhia makes sense.
However, I think there are a number of highly questionable assumptions underlying your scenario, to the point that it is entirely fantastical:
For all of the above, especially given the likely constraints that the Ukrainians face in terms of training, logistics & doctrine, Kherson is a much more realistic objective at this stage. (Melitopol would very challenging & risky, but not entirely fantastical.) If cutting off the Kerch Bridge is the objective, the Ukrainian AF can mass its remaining assets for one big operation to break through Russian AF & air defense, suffer the inevitable losses, & launch Harpoons reprogrammed to strike land targets at the bridge.
raven
@bookworm1398: fewer
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: An armored thrust in the area suggested would be very hazardous for the reasons you describe. Denial of the airspace to Russia would be essential, and even then concentrations of Ukrainian soldiers would be subject to attack by guided missiles.
A hybrid operation that broke the thinly manned front, and then was continued by partisans and special forces, might work to establish control of ground up to the Sea of Azov. Some of the maps show a blob of “partisan activity” in this area. I don’t think this is meant to show a particular area of control, but rather is just to say that partisans and special forces are operating behind the lines. They may be holding back and waiting for the right time to attack.
Such an offensive might complement a thrust at Kherson. The Russian army hasn’t yet been tested by a determined offensive and its power to defend more than fixed positions is an unknown. I’m just glad I don’t bear the responsibility of sending Ukrainian forces to find out whether or not the Russians will stand and fight and can launch effective counterattacks.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Agreed. Such a hybrid operation might be able to at least isolate Melitopol.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: All of these are completely fair.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Although as to your point 4, I would gently push back a bit. The “Kerch thunder run” envisioned here is nothing like the Kiev Thunder Run of February 2022. It’s a much smaller force, with a much more limited objective, and, in addition has not been telegraphing its intentions for months, so presumably benefits from surprise. The Kerch run is more comparable to a large commando raid, like a very large Entebbe mission.
Much of the idea is premised on the presumption that at the moment, Crimea is not a heavily defended, mined, entrenched armed camp, because no trouble is expected there. By the time the single TF mission objective is carried out it would be too late to change that.
The Russians may in fact know about a force in Zaporizhzhia, but if it exists and they know about it they evidently expect it to go to Kherson. Otherwise we’d be seeing Russian artillery strikes on the approaches to Zaporizhzhia, and they wouldn’t have taken the alleged feint.
In any event, as I said, (1) I’m not certain of any of this, (2) I do expect to get a lot of details wrong even if part of the outline is right, and (3) we should know in not too long whether I should just stick to fiction.
dr. luba
Per Michael McKay, FTFNYT has sent the next Walter Duranty to run its new Kyiv bureau:
SteveinPHX
@Another Scott:
I was using amber or green monitor computers on dedicated networks in the late 70s. DOD work.
rachel
@counterfactual: The Baltic fleet, you say?
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: Interesting scenario. You’ve obviously done a lot of thinking about the current situation.
As a counterpoint, though, I would argue that Crimea is not a major, relatively early, objective in this war. And Crimea has a lot of historical baggage with it for the russian psyche (Crimean War, Tolstoy’s Sebastopol Sketches, etc.). The bridge is very vulnerable and can easily be made useless if desired. The population there has been (as I understand it) russia-leaning because of the forced transfer of people, because of the big russian naval bases, etc. But it’s a money-pit (lack of water, being heavily dependent on tourism, etc.) and objectively not as important as control of the cities and the ports. I would think that Crimea would be one of the last objectives, and icing on the cake to show that Ukraine really has won.
Yes, russian control of Crimea can mean that access to the Black Sea ports is problematic, but that access will be problematic whether russia has troops there or not as long as the war continues.
Ukraine may, on paper, have more trained fighters potentially available, but remember the reports of her soldiers fighting for weeks without relief in Mariupol and some of the smaller cities in the East. Ukraine has many advantages in this conflict, especially as it drags out, but I don’t think she has (yet) the resources she needs to end this war quickly. And it’s not clear that even if the US and NATO wanted to send hundreds of HIMARS and AA systems and tanks and all the rest that Ukraine calls for that we could do so quickly. E.g. Lockheed-Martin says that 540 HIMARS systems have been deployed world-wide and it’s been in service since 2010 (12 years, 45/yr if assume uniform average production and deployment – a bad assumption).
None of this stuff is easy to figure out, especially with limited information!
Thanks for your interesting post!
Cheers,
Scott.
NutmegAgain
@SteveinPHX: Sure–I worked in a university computing center in the early 80s. So–terminals connected to a DEC mainframe. By mid ’80s there were a few Vaxen on the network–there was a network! Also, IBM-based PCs with software like early WordPerfect were available to students & faculty. Also, I had a bitnet email address, and the college was on Darpanet. By mid-mid ’80s, desktop machines were getting common, and we had a MicroVax at home.
so–not no computers, just no laptops to speak of, and not really PCs until the middle ’80s.
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: HI Scott. I wasn’t thinking of Crimea so much in terms of its own value, rather more in terms of its denial to the Russians, and particularly denial of their ability to move forces in through Kerch.
Although now that you mention its low value to Ukraine, a war settlement in which Crimea is swapped back to the Russians in exchange for a Russian withdrawal from the Donbas could be a thing, if the Ukrainian government felt it was worth the exchange.
Carlo Graziani
Just listened to the War On The Rocks podcast. I think Michael Kofman also sees the possibility of an offensive South from Zaporizhzhia — he was cagey, as he’s fairly high-profile, and practically said he doesn’t want to risk spoilers — but he did mention Zaporizhzhia, and he kept talking about offensive alternatives “East or West of the river”. He’s way more conservative about the possible outcomes than I am–his priors mass in a totally different part of the space–but I’m pretty sure he’s seen the gap, and thinks the Russians might have been played.