War For Ukraine Day 158: Russia Decides To Try To Distract NATO

 

 

I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but it appears that Putin’s allies/proxies in Serbia have decided to de-NAZIfy Kosovo.

Sitting Member of Serbia’s Parliament and Serbian President’s party on Kosovo using language found in Russian propaganda

“Everything seems to me that Serbia will be forced to begin the denazification of the Balkans. I'd like to be wrong.” https://t.co/tVT2NIbjMk

— Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 (@alexplitsas) July 31, 2022

Much more after the jump:

KFOR needs to communicate to the public whatever is going on and what it is doing to help calm things down.

In situations like this rumours tend to become a self-fulfilling prophecy very quickly.

— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) July 31, 2022

#Kosovo: unconfirmed footage of gunfire near the border.

Telegram source claims the gunfire is recorded at the 'Brnyak' checkpoint, 5 km from the Serbian border. pic.twitter.com/t53v9b60mM

— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) July 31, 2022

Deutsche Welle has some of the details of what has led to the most recent dust up:

Kosovo Police say they shut the Bernjak and Jarinje border crossings due to roadblocks by Serb protesters. The NATO-led KFOR mission described the situation as tense and was prepared to intervene.

Kosovo postponed the implementation of new border rules after police had to close two border crossings with Serbia on Sunday due to rising tensions.

The police said they were forced to shut the Bernjak and Jarinje border crossings after demonstrators shot at authorities and blocked roads.

The protesters were angry about a new rule that would have forced all people entering Kosovo with Serbian IDs from Monday to replace them with a temporary document during their stay in the country. A similar rule is applied by Belgrade authorities to Kosovars who visit Serbia.

The government also said ethnic Serbs who have registration plates issued by Serbia would have to change them for Kosovo license plates within two months.

Following tensions on Sunday evening and consultations with EU and US ambassadors, Pristina said it would delay its plan for one month, and start implementation on September 1.

EU foreign policy chief, Joseph Borell, welcomed the decision and urged demonstrators to remove all roadblocks immediately.

Some 50,000 ethnic Serbs living in the country’s north use license plates and documents issued by Serbian authorities.

They do not recognize Kosovo’s right to impose rules and regulations.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he situation in Kosovo had never been “more complex” for Serbia and ethnic Serbs.

“The atmosphere has been brought to a boil,” Vucic said, warning that “Serbia will win” if Serbs are attacked.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti accused Vucic of igniting “unrest”.

“The following hours, days and weeks can be challenging and problematic,” Kurti said on Facebook.

The new border rules comes almost a year after Kurti gave up imposing similar rules due to similar protests.

Ethnic Serbs staged daily protests and blocked the traffic at the two border crossings.

Serbia does not recognize Kosovo’s independence, and tensions between the two are now at their highest in years.

On Sunday NATO said it was ready to intervene if “stability is jeopardized”

The alliance maintains peace with 3,770 troops on the ground in Kosovo.

Here is NATO’s KFOR complement:

This much coincidence takes a lot of planning. I expect it is an attempt to divert NATO’s attention from Ukraine by giving it something else to focus on: protecting Kosovo.

Speaking of Putin’s proxies and allies, we now have reporting confirming the suspicions that Putin is responsible for the recent instability in Italian politics:

in that moment Draghi's govt coalition problems were manifest. Salvini announced he was ready for a Moscow trip (tickets anticipated by 🇷🇺embassy). The phone call is part of close relations with Putin (including Lega's MPs 'observers' in Crimea's 2014 annexation referendum).

— francesco strazzari (@franxstrax) July 28, 2022

meanhile LaRepubblica reports that there’d a Russian (Wagner ) hand behind the soar in boat migrants leaving Libya’s Cyrenaica coast for Italy, the aim being pressure on Rome and helping xenophobic parties during the electoral campaign. Harder to provehttps://t.co/sJkmTt07TP

— francesco strazzari (@franxstrax) July 29, 2022

As I wrote last night, since sometime between 2011 and 2014 Putin’s strategy has been to penetrate and infiltrate to influence and manipulate as many political parties, political movements, social movements, and religions movements in the US, the EU, the NATO member states, and a number of other states as possible.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below followed by English transcript (emphasis mine):

Ukrainians!

Today, one of the most brutal shellings of Mykolaiv and the region over the entire period of the full-scale war took place. Dozens of missiles and rockets… The occupiers hit residential buildings, schools, other social infrastructure, and industrial facilities.

The Russian attack took the lives of Oleksiy Vadaturskyi and his wife Raisa, the founder of one of the largest Ukrainian agricultural companies “Nibulon”, the Hero of Ukraine. My sincere condolences to the relatives and friends of the Vadaturskyi couple.

It is exactly such people, such companies, our Ukrainian south that have guaranteed the world’s food security. It has always been so. And it will be so again. The Russian terrorists should not even hope that they will be able to destroy the social and industrial potential of Ukraine and walk through the ruins.

Ukraine and our people, our capabilities are definitely more powerful than any Russian missiles and shells.

Now the Russian army is trying to strengthen its positions in the occupied areas of the south of our country, increasing activity in the relevant areas. Part of the Russian forces from their positions in the east are moved to the south – to the Kherson region and the Zaporizhzhia region… But this will not help them there.

None of the Russian strikes goes unanswered by our military and intelligence officers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to respond to any new activity of the occupiers.

And today I want to thank every resident of Mykolaiv for their indomitability, for protecting the city and the region. I also thank Nikopol, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih and the entire Dnipropetrovsk region, the strong people of Zaporizhzhia and the region, all Ukrainians of the Kherson region, everyone who defends the outskirts of Odesa and the region… Thank you for your courage!

Strategically, Russia has no chance of winning this war. And it is necessary to hold on, so that even at the tactical levels, the terrorist state feels its defeat. We have to hold on in the south, in the east and everywhere. We have to hold on in defense, diplomacy and politics. To preserve our unity – and not only until the victory, but also after it, in order to qualitatively restore everything destroyed by the occupiers. I believe that we will do all this.

I signed several important laws today, in particular the law on providing additional guarantees of protection to media representatives working in the areas of hostilities. This will strengthen the protection of our journalists.

The law on ensuring the rights and freedoms of IDPs is eliminating bureaucratic barriers that limited assistance to people.

The law on the protection of the civilian population in the event of emergency situations and hostilities.

Also, the law that creates conditions for comprehensive thermal modernization of buildings and simplifies the process of restoring the residential sector damaged by the strikes of the occupiers.

Important ratification laws, some other acts as well.

We are preparing for a new week – as always, full of international activity. Already tomorrow there will be important negotiations with European partners. In a few days I will continue delivering speeches to the international community, communicating with different audiences – it is very important, in particular with the student audience.

No matter what happens and no matter what the occupiers’ plans are, we must do our job – protect our state and take care of each other.

The more effective we are in this – all of us, all citizens of Ukraine – the faster we will achieve victory.

Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

This is the person that President Zelenskyy is referring to:

Zelensky’s adviser Podilyak says that Russia appears to have deliberately targeted Vadatursky. A Russian missile hit his bedroom and killed him and his wife (BBC).

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) July 31, 2022

Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00, on July 31, 2022

Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred fifty eights (158) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

The combat, numerical composition and nature of the actions of the enemy group remain unchanged. russian occupiers have not stopped air and missile strikes on civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.

The situation has not changed on the Volyn and Polissya directions. In order to constrain the actions of the Defense Forces, the deadlines for conducting measures to check the combat readiness of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus have been extended again. This time until the sixth of August this year.

In the Siversky direction, the enemy continues to hold separate units of the armed forces of the russian federation in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions. Conducts aerial reconnaissance of the BpLA.

The infrastructure objects of the settlements of Zaliznyi Mist of Chernihiv and Zhuravka of Sumy oblasts were fired from barrel artillery.

In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy is conducting combat operations along the state border of Ukraine, carrying out systematic shelling of the positions of our troops along the entire line of contact with the aim of holding the occupied lines and preventing the advance of units of the Defense Forces.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy fired artillery, rocket artillery and tanks in the areas of Kharkiv, Slatyne, Pytomnyk, Cherkaski Tyshky, Fedorivka, Petrivka, Rubizhne, Mospanove, Peremoha, Asiivka, Husarivka and Chepil settlements.

Conducted aerial reconnaissance of the UAVs in the areas of Prudyanka, Duvanka and Shapovalivka. Made an air strike near Stary Saltiv.

In the direction of Nova Husarivka – Husarivka, the enemy forces of the reconnaissance group tried to clarify the location of the positions of our troops, but were unsuccessful, the group withdrew.

In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy launched artillery fire near Andriivka, Dolyna, Krasnopill, Mazanivka, and Adamivka. It led an assault near Dmytrivka, was unsuccessful, withdrew.

Enemy unsuccessfully tried to use a sabotage and reconnaissance group near Dolyna, suffered losses and withdrew.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy is trying to improve the tactical position in the Bakhmut and Avdiiv directions. Conducts assault operations with the support of assault and army aviation. Trying to determine the defense system of our units.

In the Siversky direction, he fired artillery near Sloviansk, Siversk, Vyimka, Spirne and Serebryanka. It carried out airstrikes in the vicinity of Spirne and Hryhorivka.

In the direction of Bakhmut, it conducted artillery shelling in the areas of Perevizne, Fedorivka, Yakovlivka, Pokrovske, Vesela Dolyna, Semihirya, Kostyantynivka and Zalizne settlements. Airstrikes near Pokrovsky and Bakhmut.

The occupiers tried to improve their tactical position in the direction of Roty – Vershyna and Pokrovske – Bakhmut by assaulting them, and retreated with losses.

An attempt to reconnoitre the positions of the front edge in the direction of Streapivka – Soledar was unsuccessful, the enemy’s reconnaissance group was detected and neutralized. Air reconnaissance by enemy UAVs near Pavlohrad, Kramatorsk and Ozerne was recorded.

In the Avdiivka direction, the occupiers shelled the districts of Novokalynove, Tonenke, Opytne, Vodyany, Pisky, and Nevelske. The enemy carried out airstrikes near Avdiyivka and Novoselivka. It led assaults in the direction of Vesele – Pisky and Lozivske – Pisky, was unsuccessful, withdrew. The enemy used unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance in the Pokrovsk and Avdiyivka area.

On the Novopavlivske direction, shelling was carried out in the areas of settlements of Novomykhailivka, Pavlivka, Shevchenko, Zolota Nyva, Vremivka and Novopilla. Air strikes were recorded near Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky.

The enemy did not conduct active operations in the Zaporozhzhia direction. Shelled Charivne, Orikhiv and Kamianske districts. Conducted aerial reconnaissance of the UAVs near Orikhiv and Novoyakovlivka.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy is concentrating its efforts on holding the occupied lines and preventing the offensive of the units of the Defense Forces in the Kryvyy Rih direction. Continues to carry out fire influence and air strikes to constrain the actions of our units. Takes measures to replenish losses and strengthen troops.

Fired from barrel artillery and rocket salvo systems in the areas of the settlements of Osokorivka, Ivanivka, Tokarevo, Novovorontsovka, Bila Krynytsia, Andriivka, Vesely Kut, Partyzanske, Shevchenko, Blahodatne, Ukrainka, Prybuzke and Dniprovske. Conducted aerial reconnaissance of our positions.

Two sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use high-precision weapons.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:

They did not post an updated map today.

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest analysis and updated map regarding the battle for Kherson:

KHERSON AXIS / 1130 UTC 31 JUN/ Overnight, RU forces carried out a sustained artillery barrage against the civilian areas of Mykolaiv. Among the dead are UKR industrialist Oleksiy Vadatursky and his wife Raisa. They owned Nibulon, a major agricultural firm based in the city. pic.twitter.com/eDCIcftZK5

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) July 31, 2022

Ukraine has also officially denied that it attacked the Russian Navy headquarters in Sevastopol:

Ukraine denies claimed drone attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet HQ in occupied Crimea

TASS claimed that a Ukrainian UAV hit the HQ today injuring 5, Odesa Oblast spox calls it a "blatant false flag attack." https://t.co/QGVKnQf1Uc https://t.co/UX0HsGduBS pic.twitter.com/EL3e9lWng2

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 31, 2022

Politico EU has reporting on how Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is using his diplomatic mission to advance Russian information warfare objectives:

Just as Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, was about to land in Africa on Sunday, he published an op-ed blaming the West for the looming global food crisis that put millions on the Continent on the brink of starvation. Scores of local media outlets swiftly picked it up. Thousands of people shared it on Facebook.

Over the same time period, Josep Borrell — the European Union’s chief diplomat in charge of pushing back against his Russian counterpart — was a virtual ghost online, based on data from CrowdTangle, a social media analytics tool owned by Meta. He garnered just one mention on Facebook about Africa compared with Lavrov’s tidal wave of coverage.

The latest lopsided showdown between Lavrov and Borrell for the hearts and minds of people across Africa highlights what many within EU political circles have known for years, but few are willing to acknowledge publicly.

In the fast-evolving disinformation battle between Russia and the 27-country bloc, Europe remains outmatched, outgunned and under-resourced to combat the Kremlin’s sophisticated playbook, which has combined the country’s state-backed media, scores of diplomats spread around the world and, on occasion, covert tools to peddle mistruths and outright lies to promote Moscow’s political ambitions to the four corners of the globe.

Those tactics have come into their own ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February — and especially since Moscow started misleadingly blaming Western sanctions for keeping the world’s grain supply locked up in Ukraine. For Lavrov, the blame lay at Europe’s door, and in his op-ed aimed at an African audience, he reminded everyone of “the bloody crimes of colonialism.”

With Russia’s bullhorn tactics, it’s a strategy that can scale quickly as Russia’s wily foreign minister traipses across four African countries this week — tactics the EU can’t easily combat. Despite widespread sanctions against the country’s state media like RT and Sputnik within the EU, Russian outlets continue to reach tens of millions of people globally with an overtly pro-Russian message. In response, the 27-country bloc has failed to counteract this full-court press of falsehoods, often relying on staid press releases, bland photo ops and a small number of officials in charge of debunking Russian disinformation.

“Russia’s ability to promote its disinformation has gone unchecked in many parts of the world,” said Bret Schafer, head of the Alliance for Securing Democracy’s information manipulation team that tracks state-backed disinformation. “Its audience [in Europe] may have dwindled since the war began. But that does not mean it’s not finding an audience elsewhere.”

While Russia’s message is everywhere in the four countries Lavrov is visiting this week, it’s not clear it’s actually breaking through. Unlike during the Cold War, when many of the Continent’s governments turned to Moscow for aid, many of the region’s countries now look at China, not Russia, for deep pockets and development assistance.

“Using the evil colonialist narrative is not new as the Kremlin has been using it for years as part of a wider strategy to increase its footprint in Africa,” said Amanda Paul, a senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre. “Yet it has had limited success. Ultimately, Russia has very little to offer African countries other than arms, security and energy — many deals remain on paper alone.”

The ability for Russia to push its disinformation globally while the EU mostly watches from the sidelines is not what Brussels had hoped for when it clamped down on Kremlin-backed media in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.

For years before Moscow’s attack on its Western neighbor, European countries had been divided over how hard to push back against Russian disinformation, with several governments in places like Hungary and Italy at times overtly favorable to Vladimir Putin’s regime, according to four EU officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal EU conversations. Yet after Kyiv came under attack, the West — including European governments that once pushed back at efforts to call out Moscow’s disinformation — united behind an anti-Moscow stance.

“We are living in a whole new era,” said one of those officials, who highlighted how EU member countries now spoke with one voice about their opposition to Russia, compared with previous infighting between those who wanted to clamp down on Russian state media and those who did not see the likes of RT or Sputnik as peddlers of mistruths. The EU has also recently worked with the United States and the United Kingdom to debunk Kremlin falsehoods, including that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a neo-Nazi, before they could garner traction across the West.

Much, much more at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

In a war between Patron and PayPal, I’m bettin on Patron:

We already have the boat, so it's not an attempt at fraud, no. But we wanted to know why, @PayPal replied “To protect the integrity of PayPal, we cannot disclose the specific criteria we sometimes use to restrict access to accounts.” So the reason is the secret? @AskPayPal

— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 31, 2022

I’m in the arms of a deputy VS I’m in the arms of a person in uniform. I like guys in uniform. The girls will support me now 😀 pic.twitter.com/NgyCLZEaYx

— Patron (@PatronDsns) July 31, 2022

Finally, a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Сильно я змінився? #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ оригинальный звук – Reinwi

The caption translates as:

Have I changed a lot? #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraine

Open thread!