Early today Oksana Pokalchuk, the Director of Amnesty International for Ukraine, resigned in protest. Her resignation letter in English is below:
I’ll have more on this below.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Dear Ukrainians!
Three vessels with grain for export left our ports today – from Odesa and Chornomorsk. Almost 60,000 tonnes of corn are on board, which are expected by consumers in Turkey, the UK, and Ireland.
The first new vessel since February 24 is heading to the port of Chornomorsk for loading.
The main thing now is the constant increase in exports. Every adequate world player is interested in this. The more our grain will be on the global market, the smaller will be the harvest of political chaos in countries, primarily in Africa and Asia, but not only there. We must remember that this year the demand for imported food in Europe is much higher than expected. European harvests are smaller because of the heat. But the Ukrainian harvest of grain and oilseeds will most likely meet the forecasts – more than 65 million tonnes are expected. Therefore, if the partners do their part of the obligations under the Grain Initiative, the security part, and do not allow new Russian provocations in relation to our exports, then the food crisis, which has been so threatening to the world, can be overcome.
But the situation on the energy market, and especially for European consumers, continues to be very dangerous due to Russia’s cynical and worked out well gas blackmail. Instead of supplying gas to the territory of Europe in accordance with the contracts, Russia even simply burns it – and this is happening more than one week. Why does it do this? So that prices in Europe rise even more, so that ordinary Europeans suffer even more and so that it will be even more difficult for everyone on the continent to prepare for winter. This is a manifestation of Russia’s deliberate anti-European policy, anti-human policy and the effect of the old mistakes of Europeans who did not want to see that Gazprom, Russian gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine are the same weapons for Russia as tanks and artillery, and each of us, each in Europe is a target for them.
And we all have to defend ourselves now. Together to prepare for the new heating season. Together to respond to any provocations of Russia in the energy sector. Together to develop sanctions in response to Russian blackmail and terror.
Today, the occupiers created another extremely risky situation for everyone in Europe – they fired at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, twice in one day. This is the largest nuclear power plant on our continent. And any shelling of this facility is an open, brazen crime, an act of terror. Russia should bear responsibility for the very fact of creating a threat to the nuclear power plant. And this is not only another argument in favor of recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. This is an argument in favor of applying tough sanctions against the entire Russian nuclear industry – from Rosatom to all related companies and individuals. This is purely a matter of safety. The one who creates nuclear threats to other nations is definitely not capable of using nuclear technologies safely.
Today I held a meeting devoted to the sanctions policy, confiscation of Russian assets. As government officials reported, assets worth UAH 28 billion have already been forcibly seized in Ukraine. This work continues. More than 900 facilities belonging to the Russian state are proposed to be confiscated. And if we evaluate the property package not only of the terrorist state, but also of its residents, then this are 36,000 items for seizure. All this will be sent to compensate for the damages that Russia causes through war and terror.
I also heard the results of the work of the group on the development and implementation of the international compensation mechanism and confiscation of Russian assets abroad. All our partners are actively working on this – in Europe, in the United States. Work on bills that will expand the possibilities for the confiscation of Russian assets for Ukraine is underway.
And Donbas burned out by Russian strikes, the abuse of the occupiers over Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, the shelling of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk region, Sumy region, Chernihiv region, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr region, Odesa region and other regions of Ukraine are what Russia will surely pay for: both politically and financially, and with its own future, which Russia is losing with every strike on our territory.
I spoke today with the President of Malawi. It is another African state, the ninth country, which Ukraine is in contact with for the first time at the highest level in the entire history of our independence. I assured Mr. President that Ukraine will make every effort so that every country interested in our agricultural products can meet its consumption needs. We also discussed other issues of stability and our cooperation in international organizations.
I also signed a decree awarding our soldiers. A total of 192 combatants were given state awards, 18 of them, unfortunately, posthumously.
Eternal gratitude to all who is fighting for our great state!
Thank you, great people of Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Yes, you read and/or heard that right, the Russians targeted the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant today.
📽️Ukrainian Enerhoatom says Russian troops staged a provocation and fired in the direction of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Vegetation nearby is on fire. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/EQdY5kyr7g
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) August 5, 2022
I’m sure it’s perfectly fine for the Russians to be targeting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant.
What could go wrong?
Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00, on August 5, 2022
Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred sixty third (163) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
There are no changes on the Volyn and Polissya directions.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy is holding separate units of the troops of the Western Military District in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions. Conducts engineering equipment of positions and installation of video surveillance systems.
The artillery shelled civilian infrastructure in the areas of Zalizniy Mist and Hremyach settlements in Chernihiv oblast and Starikovo, Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy continues to focus its efforts on preventing the Defense Forces from creating favorable conditions for resuming the offensive.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy used barrel and jet artillery to shell the areas of the settlements of Kharkiv, Ruska Lozova, Korobochkyne, Cherkaski Tyshky, Stary Saltiv, and Verkhniy Saltiv. Unmanned aerial vehicles conducted aerial reconnaissance near Ruska Lozova, Mali Prokhody, Husarivka and Chepil.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy did not conduct active offensive actions, but carried out fire damage from artillery of various types near Bohorodychne, Dolyna, Dibrivne, Velika Komyshuvakha, and Ridne.
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy is concentrating its efforts in the areas of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. It is trying to create favorable conditions for establishing control over the cities of Soledar and Bakhmut and pushing our troops away from the western outskirts of the city of Donetsk.
On the Kramatorsk and Bakhmut directions, the enemy used tanks, barrel and rocket artillery for shelling near Siversk, Hryhorivka, Verkhnyokamyanske, Bakhmut, Zaytseve, Soledar, Yakovlivka, and Kodema. Made an air strike near Vershyna.
With offensive actions, the occupiers tried to capture advantageous lines and improve the tactical position in the areas of Bakhmut, Zaytseve, and Vershyn, they did not succeed, they retreated.
In the Avdiivka direction, artillery shelling was recorded near Avdiivka, Novobakhmutivka, Nevelske, Netailove and Krasnohorivka. The enemy unsuccessfully tried to advance in the direction of the settlements of Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka and Pisky.
In the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhia directions, the enemy shelled the areas of Maryinka, Volodymyrivka, Novomykhailivka, Velyka Novosilka, Novoandriivka, Kamianske, Novosilka, Charivne, Novopil, Hulyaipole and Neskuchne from tanks, barrel and rocket artillery.
Ukrainian soldiers successfully repelled another enemy assault in the direction of Maryinka and forced the enemy to flee.
The occupiers carried out reconnaissance with unmanned aerial vehicles in the districts of Zaporizhzhia and Novoselivka Druha.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is trying to hold the occupied positions and prevent our units from creating favorable conditions for a counteroffensive using available means of fire damage.
The enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Posad-Pokrovske, Stepova Dolyna, Lupareve, Novomykolaivka, Novohrihorivka, Chervona Dolyna, Zeleny Hai, Andriivka, Trudolyubivka, Novovorontsovka, Topolyne, Potiomkine, Olhyne, Nikopol. Used aviation for strikes near Lozove, Veliky Artakov, and Andriivka.
The enemy made an offensive attempt in the direction of Lozova. It was decisively repulsed by Ukrainian soldiers and left.
Unmanned aerial vehicles are actively used to identify the positions of our units and adjust artillery fire.
In the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, the enemy naval group focuses its main efforts on supporting the land group, blocking civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, and damaging military facilities and infrastructure elements deep within the territory of Ukraine.
Four sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use high-precision weapons.
Our units continue to successfully carry out missile and artillery fire missions in the designated directions. The adversary experiences an acute shortage of trained and at least somehow motivated replenishment for units suffering losses as a result of the war in Ukraine.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no DOD backgrounder today. However, there is reporting from Reuters that the US is preparing another $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine:
WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) – The Biden administration’s next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.
The package is expected to be announced as early as Monday and would add to about $8.8 billion in aid the United States has given Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24.
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that President Joe Biden had not yet signed the next weapons package. They cautioned that weapons packages can change in value and content before they are signed.
However, if signed in its current form, it would be valued at $1 billion and include munitions for HIMARS, NASAMS surface-to-air missile system ammunition and as many as 50 M113 armored medical transports.
The new package follows a recent Pentagon decision to allow Ukrainians to receive medical treatment at a U.S. military hospital in Germany near Ramstein air base. read more
Last Monday, the Pentagon announced a separate security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $550 million, including additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
The White House declined to comment on the package.
The new package would be funded under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), in which the president can authorize the transfer of articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval in response to an emergency.
Much more at the link.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s updated map and analysis for the battle in Kherson:
KHERSON / 2015 5 AUG / UKR sources report that Volodymyr Saldo, head of the RU puppet Kherson civic military administration, has been hospitalized and is in a medical coma. Fire and explosions near Oleshky: likely the result of an ammunition depot being struck by UKR artillery. pic.twitter.com/YvDH5p1dPh
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 5, 2022
We’re going to sort of pause here and circle back to the Amnesty International brouhaha from last night. As you all recall I started last night with a brief synopsis of Amnesty International’s recently released report about Ukraine with a focus on the response from their Ukrainian director. I didn’t link to or post to the report for several reasons. The first, to be quite honest, is a personal one. I had had a very long day with some less than pleasant news and I was just trying to plow through the post so I could rack out. The second, which is more of a professional judgement sort of thing, is that I didn’t think it was worth posting or excerpting. I don’t find Amnesty International’s arguments persuasive, I don’t find the evidence they’re referring to as being actually relevant to the war that is actually being fought versus the war Amnesty International’s non-Ukrainian analysts living and writing in safe spaces far from the war think Ukraine should be fighting, nor do I find that evidence convincing. In fact their evidence seems quite flimsy. Finally, a lot of the arguments that Amnesty International made, as well as the overall framing of the report, mirror if not actually reproduce Russian agitprop justifications and rationalizations for their re-invasion of Ukraine.
However, to be thorough, here is the link to the report.
While I don’t want to make this about me, if you have a problem with how I do any particular post, calling me a liar is not going to make me respond to you and your concerns in a pleasant manner.
Now I’d like to get back to a couple of informed responses to the report.
The first is from the Ukrainian government:
The Ministry of Defense commented on the statement of the international human rights organization Amnesty International that Ukraine allegedly deploys military bases in hospitals and schools, violating the laws of war and endangering people’s lives. As an UNIAN correspondent reports, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Anna Malyar said this during a briefing.
According to Malyar, Ukraine continues the policy of openness and an objective approach to the actions of both the aggressor and our military, which are taking defensive measures. In 2014, Ukraine itself applied to the International Criminal Court and allowed to investigate crimes against humanity and war crimes, unlike Russia.
I want to remind you that the Ukrainian law enforcement system and the courts investigated and sentenced those military men who committed crimes in the combat zone. We have many such examples. If there are facts, we are ready for an investigation, but only within the framework of the context, and not on bare accusations. But while we wait for the Russian enemy in the field, as some advise us, the Russians will occupy all our houses,” she stressed.
She stressed that our military is strengthening and defending cities and villages from invaders. Air defense is being deployed to cover the sky over populated areas. The authorities regularly carry out evacuations, but not all residents agree to this.
As UNIAN reported earlier, according to adviser to the head of the Office of the President Mikhail Podoliak, any statements about violations by the Ukrainian army are in the nature of an information operation to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine and undermine the supply of weapons from Western partners.
The next is from Edward Hunter Christie who previously served in a senior civilian position at NATO (IHL is International Humanitarian Law):
2-8
RUS knows where the military bases are, where the frontline is. Nearby woods or isolated structures would leave a tell-tale logistics trail RUS would rapidly identify. So, AI's point is wrong from an IHL perspective, because necessity isn't correctly assessed.— Edward Hunter Christie (@EHunterChristie) August 5, 2022
- 3-8 Necessity has many practical components for a defending nation, which furthermore has an inherent legal right to commandeer its civilian resources and facilities to aid the war effort and increase the survivability of its forces so that they live to fight another day.
- 4-8 The Russian forces, by contrast, are there illegally to begin with. Does Russia benefit from the principle of military necessity too? * I would argue it should not * Because it is waging an illegal war of aggression. As such, not a single Russian shell is fired legally.
- 5-8 Ukraine, by contrast, should be given significant leeway through the principle of necessity, because it starts from a position of lawful self-defence, entirely on its own territory, and bearing in mind unfavourable military odds and very narrow sets of options.
- 6-8 Considering the empirical cases observed by AI, I propose that the correct legal commentary should be this: Russian forces need to stop firing. Completely. And leave. Ukrainians have the right to use any and all buildings and facilities on their territory. Full stop.
- 7-8 I propose that legal scholars adopt my proposal, based on a reasonable attitude regarding the following issues: A. The pattern of *fully* separating jus in bello from jus ad bellum considerations is absurd and unjust. When there’s a clear aggressor, adjustments must be made.
- 8-8 B. When acting in self-defence on its own territory, a defending state benefits from a margin of appreciation in line with the IHL principle of necessity, whereas the foreign aggressor state does not benefit from that principle at all.
The second is from Andreas Umland:
The human rights NGO has neither the professional competence nor the public authority to assess the military necessity of, or putative alternatives to, an occasional stationing of Ukrainian troops in residential areas or near other civilian facilities. /2
— Andreas Umland (@UmlandAndreas) August 5, 2022
- Even more worrisome about the foray of the reputed NGO into military affairs is an absence of consideration of possible human rights repercussions of the publicly suggested more cautious tactical behavior of the Ukrainian armed forces. /3
- Is the suggested larger distance of Ukrainian armed forces from Ukrainian civilians indeed always and clearly in the interests of these civilians? What can be various possible net results of such more cautious military behavior in terms of protecting human rights in Ukraine? /4
The remarks of@amnestycan (b) imply a more fundamental critique of the Ukrainian state’s behavior that is about not only tactical but also ethical issues. It could mean that the Ukrainian army does not care about Ukrainian civilians, or even uses them as human shields. /5 One simply wonders why an international human rights organization would publicly criticize a certain country’s army’s way of desperate resistance against a massive armed attack on this country – especially so as the attacker’s human rights reputation is not entirely spotless. /7 Shouldn’t one assume that a defending army will by itself try to minimize the effects of its armed resistance against aggression, on civilian citizens and infrastructure? Do Ukraine’s generals and officers need a foreign NGO to alert them to possible risks of their decisions? /8 As@Amnestyhas decided to go public with its fundamental critique of Ukraine’s army, it appears that the Ukrainian military leadership cannot be trusted to actually defend the life and interests of Ukraine’s citizens. Doesn’t such an assumption about Ukraine sound familiar? /9 The claim that the Ukrainian state does not care about the fundamental needs of its citizens is well-known, in Russia and Ukraine. It is at the core of Moscow’s apology for the entire war and has been a constant theme in the Kremlin’s propaganda for more than eight years. /10 The@amnestyreport has immediately become recognized, by both Russians and Ukrainians, as feeding into Moscow’s official justification for its armed invasion of Ukraine since 2014. Didn’t Russia always say that it has a “responsibility to protect” Russian speakers from Kyiv? /11 The explicit contents of, and implied conclusions from,@amnesty‘s public critique of Ukraine’s armed forces will not lead to better protection of human rights in Ukraine. They will instead support the Kremlin’s narrative of the sources and nature of the entire conflict. /12 The military incompetence of@amnesty‘s official comment on Ukraine’s conduct of its defensive war against Russia’s annihilation war is excusable. However, the political insensitivity of such an inapt coming out of the reputed human rights organization is rather regrettable. /END
Finally, here is Boyd van Dijk’s analysis. Van Dijk is the McKenzie Fellow at the Melbourne School at Law in Australia:
The @amnesty report notes that Ukrainian forces are putting civilians in harm's way by operating in populated residential areas, including hospitals. But it is getting, understandably a lot of flag and pushback from critics – and even from mainstream IHL lawyers.
— Boyd van Dijk (@boyd_vandijk) August 5, 2022
- Critics are rightly wondering why Amnesty hasn’t provided satellite imagery or other concrete evidence supporting its (thin) claims.
- The Ukrainians are fighting an asymmetrical war against Russian aggression and acts of genocide, so it should not be surprising that their forces are operating in cities where they can fight the invader – like so many other victims of aggression/genocide have done before.
But the most important critique thrown at@amnestyis that the Ukrainians are fighting a just war against illegal aggression and alien occupation, and that it would be unfair to call out their relatively marginal IHL violations compared to grave breaches by Russian aggressor. This point seems crucial, and it connects with a much longer and broader debate within IHL – and (revisionist) just war theory – about the distinction between jus ad bellum (the rules for going to war) and jus in bello (rules governing warfare). The question whether victims of aggression and/or genocide (often fighting an asymmetrical war) should have to follow strictly IHL is a contested one, also during the making of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the most important rules for warfare ever formulated. In the late 1940s, especially Jewish survivors and socialist drafters of the GCs fought against belligerent equality, the idea that IHL applies to all parties equally even if they’re fighting against aggression/genocide (the same principle that dictates @amnesty thinking). Breaching this principle would allow civilians/soldiers acting against aggression and/or genocide to lawfully take up arms in occupied territory, and to violate IHL if necessary to defend their right to life – see the Ukrainians today. This is what the Israeli delegation said during the negotiations in Geneva in the summer of 1949. Most interestingly, the proposal was supported by the Soviet Union as well as a French-Jewish drafter, even though France was simultaneously fighting against Ho Chi Minh’s guerrillas in Southeast Asia. Indeed, the Soviet Union (i.e. the Rus Fed’s predecessor) remained an active proponent of the idea of giving more extensive protections to irregulars who were fighting for a so-called ‘just cause’ – both in the late 1940s and in the 1970s, when the Conventions were last updated. The Soviets worked actively together with Third World delegations using the language of just war to elevate the status of national liberation movements and denounce wars of imperialist aggression – whether being in Southern Africa, Vietnam, or Ukraine today. But, as I’m researching in my new project, those same proposals created sign debates within socialist states and national liberation movements about the ethics of guerrilla warfare, just as Ukrainians are discussing the ethics of using heavy artillery in their own neighborhoods. The ANC in S-Africa demanded privileged belligerent status, but it also had extensive internal debates on the ethics of violence, in the 1960s and after 1976, when it opted for more indiscriminate violence while adhering to IHL atst (see Tambo in Geneva). The point being here is that it would be better both analytically as well as normatively to embrace the richness of IHL history, rather than framing it as a strict codebook with severe limitations for those fighting against aggression and/or genocide, as the @amnesty report does. We should never forget the eth implications of warfare for civilians, but that equally applies to the lesson that IHL was originally designed to empower states – and esp Great Powers, not to amplify the position of those fighting against injustice.for more info on the making of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, see my latest book<
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Here’s some more pictures of Patron visiting the children’s hospital back in July:
Patron the dog visited the children who are being treated at the children's hospital Ohmatdyt.
Small patients were also preparing for the meeting and happily greeted the rescuers and Patron with bright drawings. 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/25iX8W1uyK
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) July 9, 2022
And here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok account:
@patron__dsns Вже зацінили нову пісню про мене? Мені таак сподобалась! #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption translates as:
Have you already rated the new song about me? I liked it so much! #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraine
Open thread!
West of the Rockies
I must have missed a brouhaha; someone insinuated you were lying, Adam? That sucks. You provide these posts out of kindness and intellectual rigor. Know that 99.9% of us know that and greatly appreciate it.
Chetan Murthy
@West of the Rockies: Adam has been educating and informing us about this war (of the West against Russia) for seven years now (that I’ve been reading — maybe even before that). Every now and then, a troll comes along, is all.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Those Twitter threads about AI are very incisive. One wonders how the people behind that report would respond to them. (One does not actually have to wonder, as one can be pretty damn sure it would be with self-righteous whining and mendacious refusal to actually engage with the critiques.) It still baffles me WHY, though. I don’t want to think that a group like that is full of Putin groupies, but more messed up things have happened.
Like, you know. Crazy bastards firing on a nuclear plant. SUPER EXTRA MESSED UP.
Thank you as always, Adam.
the pale scot @ gmail
Yea, not a word about all those fuel and ammo depots going boom near or in populated areas in the middle of the night.
Anyone see that RU ammo train blow up? sure seems to be surrounded by buildings
Hey!! Let me outa here!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@West of the Rockies: The person immediately assumed the worst of bad faith on Adam’s part because he didn’t copypaste/link to the AI report, and also said he was “lying by omission” by not doing so. It was gross.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
I have a theory for why they end up that way: hear me out. AI is an institution that believes deep-down that they need to be “in the middle”. That if they’re taking flak from both sides, they’re over the target. So they try to bothsides every conflict. And then, well [as someone pointed out on twitter] one side is somewhat open (the West and our allies) and the other is pretty damn closed. So it’s a lot easier to get damning information about bad things UA does (howsoever minor) than it is to get damning information about bad things Russia does. “So hey, let’s run with what we can get, and gosh we wouldn’t want to actually go to a war zone to investigate, riiiiiight?”
It’s not so different from why the MSM is so in the tank for the GrOPers: the Dems actually try to behave like small-d democrats, and, well, that makes them easier targets. And one cannot, *cannot*, *cannot* be seen to be taking sides, amirite?
Chetan Murthy
The part that really rankles about that AI report, is that somehow UA would be wilfully endangering it’s civilian population. I mean …. the *cheek* of AI to say such things, when one side is bombing and shelling civilian areas with reckless abandon, and the other sticks to almost-entirely military targets.
But hey, I guess “you deserved it, you should have laid back and allowed yourself to be raped instead of resisting” is a moral position. What kind of moral position, well …..
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: I think you are right on target here, but I have a bit to add.
I’m a just-war cold war democrat, and (believing in the necessity of deterring Soviet communism) I worked in defense most of my adult life. My mother believed in freedom but was also a pacifist, and criticized me for literally four decades for “being willing to kill people”. I asked her what we should do if the Soviet Union invaded West Germany, France, and Finland. Her reply “we would do non-violent sit-ins! That ended segregation in the South, it would defeat the Soviets!”
The sad fact is, though I’d like to live in a world where peace always prevails, that a determined violent aggressor must be defeated with violence- there is no other way. Non-violent sit-ins would not have defeated Hitler, would not have defeated Stalin, would not have ended apartheid in South Africa, and now would not defeat putin.
I think Amnesty International is making the same error as my (late) mom.
ColoradoGuy
I wonder how much of this is warmed-over anti-colonialism, of the Noam Chomsky flavor. Some parts of the left have been reflexively anti-West for so long they are blind to the far graver crimes of autocratic regimes.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: I do believe your mother was sincere. I don’t think AI is. If the UK were invaded, if some Western country that is near-and-dear to the people who run AI UK were invaded, they’d be 100% down with a strategy like UA is employing.
They can take this position because it’s not their near-and-dear doing the dying.
Chetan Murthy
@ColoradoGuy: Noam’s getting worse and worse. His caretakers need to take away his internet connection before he completely be-shits his reputation.
Adam L Silverman
Pale Scot, you somehow messed up your nym. I’ve trashed the comment because it was going to post your email address as your nym. Please redo the comment.
ColoradoGuy
I used to sound like Noam myself, criticizing the American Empire, until I met our European compatriots who had directly experienced Russian colonialism and they asked me: “Name *one* empire that was better, or do you think the world will outgrow empires any time soon?”
In other words, if the West leaves, what replaces it? Power abhors a vacuum.
Chetan Murthy
@ColoradoGuy:
Which doesn’t mean that we don’t expect our government, its viceroys, satraps, and generals, to do better. But we’re not stupid enough to think that China and Russia will be better than us.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Yes, my mom was totally sincere, but she was also totally wrong. For what it’s worth, I think non-violence in the tradition of Gandhi and Martin Luther King depends on three factor that are not always present:
NONE of these factors is present in russia today.
I don’t know whether AI would condone a russian invasion of (for example) Finland. It almost doesn’t matter- if you are an international human rights organization, and you’re willing to condone ANYTHING like the russian invasion of Ukraine, you are worthless.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya:
I’ve read that Gandhi was a *canny* manipulator of the media, using them to get out his message (I’m sure Dr. King was also, but haven’t read about that). These lions of nonviolent resistance understood your principles well, and weren’t the naive children that some of these recent multiple-times-descended fools are.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya:
From what I have read, the Civil Rights protestors understood this. It’s why they dressed in their Sunday best: so that when they were attacked and brutalized, the images and films would show them at their best, in a form that would have the greatest chance of being favorably viewed by Northern and urban voters. They weren’t appealing to the local Southerners, but to Northerners.
Jay
@Andrya:
featheredsprite
Thank you, Adam. Excellent write-up, as always.
The Pale Scot
Nothing from AI about the orcs putting their fuel and ammo depots that keep blowing up surrounded by homes and building, natch
Did ya’ll see that RU ammo train that blow up? Looks like it right in the middle of a neighborhood
Thanks Adam, new machine, migration woes.
Speaking of which, just as I was about to tear Mini apart because I couldn’t remember the firmware password, it came to me like a vision. I saw the screen in my mind and remembered the password. It was so obvious.
Carlo Graziani
It’s very strange. To the extent that Amnesty International represents the international outlook of the UK left, this episode brings out some very old continuities, going back to the 1930s. To the relentless hostility towards any Western/Atlantic political priority, now, oddly, we have a return of the willful blindness towards Russia.
I wrote, in that over-long thing The Resumption of History about the tension between the concerns of Justice and Power, the point being that those concerned with the problems of Power understand the priority of liberty issues over material equity issues, whereas those dazzled by the power of Marxist analysis keep suffering self-inflicted damage because of their inability to understand where the foundations of politics truly lie. The UK left, and Amnesty, strike me as being stuck in that same limbo. Their politics are materialist, and hence — they are absolutely persuaded — hard-headed. And yet this is precisely the feature that prevents them from perceiving the reality of this conflict as a value-laden struggle.
And, since the struggle is not value-laden, they can perceive no validity in the “bothsidist” criticism. Nor can they see any reason to re-evaluate their long-standing loathing of Atlanticim.
But the re-birth of their 1930s-era sympathy for Russia is still a bit weird. I can’t really explain it.
piratedan
its kinda sad when an entire charity organization goes entirely sea-lioning in an attempt to both sides an unprovoked war of aggression.
Geoduck
@Chetan Murthy: I think Gandhi explicitly said at one point that a campaign of nonviolence worked because they were dealing with the English. (Of course, that doesn’t mean for a minute that the British colonial administration were a bunch of cuddly sweethearts.)
Adam L Silverman
@The Pale Scot: I posted the ammo train video a couple of nights ago.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
With respect, I think you give them too much credit. As Ta-Nehisi Coates said, as generations of feminists said before him: discrimination and violence against oppressed minorities is economic harm *also*: it costs women and Black people better jobs (b/c they’re passed-over for promotions, educations, etc), and costs them money b/c they cannot take the same jobs that white men can take out of physical danger and (of course) harrassment in all its forms.
These “leftists” refuse to take these economic harms seriously, b/c it would get in the way of their narrative, which is one in which they are in charge and get to decide how things will be run in The New Order Of Things.
Andrya
@Geoduck: The British government was emphatically NOT a bunch of “cuddly sweethearts” but fortunately the UK was a democracy. When Gandhi visited Britain in 1931, he appealed directly to the (often unemployed) British textile mill workers about the sufferings in India, and he was heard.
Something similar happened during the American Civil War: although the British upper classes were pro-Confederate, the 1832 reform bill had given the vote to much of the British middle class, who were anti-slavery. Therefore, the British navy did not intervene to break the Union blockade on behalf of the Confederacy. (It didn’t hurt that Queen Victoria still had political power, and was very deferential to her husband, and Prince Albert was an abolitionist.)
Omnes Omnibus
I think that AI really stepped outside its own remit with this report. Their area of expertise and influence is human rights law (death penalty, torture, prisoners of conscience, reproductive freedom) not the law of war.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: This reminds me of accounts I’ve read of public opinion in the North before and during the Civil War. It wasn’t that Northerners liked Black people. Many, maybe most, did not. But they were simply unwilling to be complicit in the crime of slavery. And sure, many, many of them didn’t want to live around Black people. But they still weren’t willing to participate in their subjugation. Which is to their credit.
CaseyL
I was gobsmacked by AI’s report: it’s an organization I’ve respected for most of my life. No more, though.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Many who fought for the Union were not primarily motivated by pro-or-anti slavery, but by a realization that a Confederate victory would be a deadly threat to democracy. This includes my great-great-grandfather, James Long, who died in 1866 of wounds suffered in 1865 while serving in the Union army.
Also, Abraham Lincoln pointed out again and again that a slave economy would destroy the market for free labor. If a slave shoemaker literally would “work for food” no one will pay the cost of shoes made by a free man supporting a family.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: Ah yes, I’d forgotten about that (“Free Soil”, IIRC). Thank you for reminding me. Another reason for fighting on the Union side, that had nothing to do with liking Black people.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue team
Super valuable context once again Adam. Thank you.
Carlo Graziani
@Andrya: On the Ghandi-Mandela-King thing, I think I mostly agree with you, although perhaps with a difference in emphasis.
I actually believe that they were among the most effective revolutionaries of the 20th Century, and built more enduringly and more constructively than almost all the “revolutionaries” whose faces are on posters and T-shirts.
As to the conditions enabling their success, I am not as schematic as you are. I just like to point to the fact that MLK, who is misremembered in schools and on MLK Day nowadays as a jovial, chubby-cheeked pacifist, as harmless as Santa Claus, could not be farther from the true historical MLK, who J. Edgar Hoover was quite right to fear.
MLK’s nonviolence was not, as is commonly misunderstood, a mere renunciation of violence. It was an active tactic, and a desperately courageous one, to get footage of police and national guard troops savagely brutalizing helpless, non-resisting people onto the TVs of millions of people who could imagine their own children, or their siblings, or their parents, or themselves in the place of the victims. It was nonviolence as a weapon, as the only weapon accessible to the powerless. And all that was required to access that weapon was the willingness to step forwards, unarmed, towards the cops, knowing that this time they might, in fact, kill you. But also knowing that those millions of people at home voted, and paid the taxes that paid those cops.
I actually thought about MLK a lot in late 2020, when it wasn’t clear that we would actually have a transition, and I worried about idiots going to DC and turning demonstrations violent. Had it come to DHS security or National Guard forces sent to break up demonstrators, I’m pretty sure the MLK approach would have turned them against Trump, whereas Molotov cocktails would have validated him.
Anoniminous
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Andrya
@Carlo Graziani: I agree with everything you said. However, MLK had these advantages:
a. A free press. The activities of Bull O’Connor and the KKK could not be concealed- they became public knowledge.
b. White people’s conscience- although many white people backed George Wallace et al, the majority of white people recognized that Jim Crow was wrong.
c. Although the state level judiciary systems condoned pro-Jim-Crow violence, there were constraints on this scenario. No Southern police department dared to simply kill MLK. When they did find a way to assassinate him, they set up a pathetic (albeit evil) Southern ex-con to take the blame.
SiubhanDuinne
No matter how perplexing, challenging, or horrific your lead stories may be, I’m very grateful for the nightly Patron videos and messages that end each of your Ukraine posts. I worry terribly about Patron’s well-being, but he is seemingly made of much tougher fibre than I am! And a helluva lot cuter.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, high Broderism taken to extreme. Unbelivable.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The other thing is Russian society hand waves these abuses away as necessary evils for the better tomorrow. Russia is the place were the phrase “you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs” was coined.
Chetan Murthy
a thread. It’s still pretty self-serving, but at least, admits some responsibility for the debacle in which they find themselves. I wonder whether Callamard will end up resigning: she ought to, for sure, purely for internal morale reasons, completely aside from the moral reasons, which argue she should crawl on hands&knees to Kyiv and beg forgiveness from the Ukrainian parliament (or maybe their highest court — from somebody).
bjacques
AI’s report amounts to at best “Careful, now…), as if Ukraine aren’t already doing their best to avoid putting civilians and civilian infrastructure in harm’s way. No pictures, though word would have gotten out if investigators were checking these purported locations, let alone had sources on the ground. It’s not like there aren’t (still) Russian sympathizers eager to provide photos for AI when they’re not spotting targets for Russian artillery, when they face jail, not summary execution, if caught. Ukraine is sn open society, even now, with no death penalty. If there was solid evidence Ukraine were playing fast and loose, let alone committing war crimes, Russia would have had ample time to get it and publish it.
Where Ukraine is coming from is their armed forces are sticking to the laws of war, even when defending themselves would give them a bit of latitude. They’re gathering and presenting forensic evidence of Russian war crimes in hopes of dragging the perpetrators to The Hague, where they face maybe 20-25 years max.
Where Russia is coming from is that, in their photos of the “filtration” camp where they tried to frame Ukraine for the mass murder of prisoners, a gallows is clearly visible.
Traveller
Sometimes an analysis just hits you as entirely true…and since anything being entirely true is unusual, Andrya’s analysis as to the necessities for a non-violent movement to be successful as it was for Gandi, Mandela and MLK…sine qua non, (without which it could not be), was exactly correct.
Gandi, nor Mandela nor Mr King would long be alive to cause such havoc in a Stalinist regime, or Putin’s, (see how all the initial street protests and demonstrations are gone now), as would be true, as was true, under early Pinochet. (Let alone Idi Amin or Khmer Rouge).
These revolutionaries, and revolutionaries they were, were also very fortunate to have lived when they lived, fought where they fought….different times, different places would have different outcomes.
Which is not to downplay them…Just a thank you to Andrya for getting me to more clearly recognize this.
Best Wishes, Traveller
matt
AI thing looks like a paid placement. Wouldn’t take much money.
Gvg
Think about how much money, time and effort Russia has spent getting influence in the US and Europe that we already know about. Think about Russian money going to odd things like gun rights, Christian organizations, Facebook, British real estate and other things. I think it is likely that Russia has years ago placed or influenced some but not all high place officials at Amnesty and I would look for them at other useful organizations too. Organizations that have been around awhile with reputations that could help Russia at some point.
If I were in such an organization I would audit my money sources and take a look at all my near top leadership now, before we blow our rep up.
Geminid
@Gvg: Well, it is said that the love of money is the root of all evil. Another explaination of Amnesty International’s behavior in this matter is that AI’s leadership has been captured by left wing ideologues with a political agenda that overrides their basic mission. At the risk of stirring up more controversy, I’ll say I thought this was evidenced by their recent report on Israel’s undeniable abuse of Palestinian rights that labeled Israel an “Apartheid State.
But I certainly would not discount Russian influence in either case.
Sally
I commented on my views on AI last night. This report has handed Russia a massive moral and propaganda gift. They are not “in the middle”, or “both sides”. This is Russian propaganda and listening to interviews on BBC, they can’t whine their way around this. They have really Brandoned up their reputation amongst those who still believed (not me). They give the impression in the report that UA is positioning troops/weapons in schools, hospitals, residential areas that are in use. I believe that any such positioning is in the rubble of already partially destroyed buildings. I have seen photos of UA military in such (empty) remains. This is urban warfare. Let them produce proof of military in schools or hospitals with children or patients in the next rooms. I don’t believe there is any. But I’ll wait. When defending cities and villages, where are the troops supposed to be? I agree with Gvg, the chances there is Russian influence in these organisations is not zero. Especially in the Russian laundry that is the UK.
Gin & Tonic
An awful lot of Ukrainians are like “yeah, whatevs, you’ve been on the wrong side since 2014, so this resignation is like a fart in a windstorm.”
Searcher
So, what is the proposed alternative to Ukraine defending the territory Russia is trying to take? The defending country establish symbolic battlegrounds, empty of civilian use, in each unit area of the country, and cede territory based on ritual combat taking place at each one?
Not going to lie, sounds superior to total war, but not very realistic.
Searcher
Re: Gandhi, Mandela and MLK, it’s worth remembering that two of the three were assassinated. (And if you’re subject to the Mandela effect, the third died in prison in the 80s).
Tony G
@Chetan Murthy: Your analysis sounds about right, unfortunately. In my experience any organization that reaches “mainstream” status due to its size and longevity eventually chooses administrators for whom the principle goal is CYA (cover your ass) — and both-siderism is an effective ass-covering tactic. Of course, by claiming that the actions of Ukraine are as bad as the Russian war crimes, Amnesty International is throwing into the dumpster the good reputation that it has earned over the past 60 years — but the administrators get paid no matter what. It will be a long time before Amnesty International gets another dime from me though.
Villago Delenda Est
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: The evil of Broderism is destroying the 4th Estate in the United States.
Villago Delenda Est
@Geminid: Yeah, Jimmy Carter got trashed by the usual suspects for saying the same thing about Israel.
Geminid
@Villago Delenda Est: Jimmy Carter pointed out that his use of the word “Apartheid” was intended to apply to Israel’s control of the occupied territories and not to Israel itself. Amnesty International’s recent report used the term in a much broader sense than did Carter.
Bill Arnold
There is some academic literature that suggests that non-violent methods succeed more often than violent methods at overthrow of oppressive regimes. As with violence, use of effective non-violent methods is critical. [As is a tight OODA loop, and since the intermediate goal is mass change of sentiments, accurate observation/monitoring of sentiments across all of society is essential.]
Why Civil Resistance Works
A book length elaboration of this article:
Why Civil Resistance Works The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict by Maria J. Stephan and Erica Chenoweth (2008, sci-hub has it FWIW, for those without access.)
[deeper dive; use scholar.google.com to find papers that cite/respond to this one and skim them.]
People might also want to read some of Gene Sharp’s works on forcing political transitions through non-violent actions; relatively short (basically short book length essays)
https://www.aeinstein.org/search-by-title/
The Anti-Coup
From Dictatorship to Democracy – A Conceptual Framework for Liberation
The last has become a classic.
Re Russia, the siloviki are quite aware of (even adept at) this class of tactics, and actively/ruthlessly defend their power against such tactics, and also work with/use them to destabilize other countries. The points that Andrya made in #14 (lack of free judiciary, lack of free press, lack of a dominant class with at least vestigial morality) are part of the Russian defenses, inherited from Stalin. IMO.
Feathers
One of my first thoughts on seeing this Amnesty own goal was that it reminded me of the failures that we are seeing in public health lately. Letting people with money and an elite education skip the 2-3 years on entry level employment by getting a master’s degree has cut many organizations off from the foundational levels of what their work is. I’ve worked in higher ed, I’ve known these grad students.
One of the Amnesty rebuttals talked about honoring the Ukrainians they had talked to complaining about soldiers next door. There are people who will complain about anything! Did these Amnesty interviewers check to see if they were talking to Russian sympathizers or not? They don’t seem to have documented much, how can we trust that these are actual Ukrainians?
Bold truth tellers who don’t know what they are talking about are dangerous. Knew a Harvard professor who talked about “Harvard stupid,” the kind of wrongheaded thinking that it takes an degree from a prestigious institution to have the confidence to espouse.
Tony G
@Feathers: Yeah, some of the stupidest, and most arrogant, people that I’ve known have been grad students and college professors. Maybe that’s who’s running Amnesty International these days.
UncleEbeneezer
Very late to this thread (forgot to hit post button this am) but Amnesty International reminds me of PETA, Occupy and to some extent the ACLU (in it’s worst moments). Well-meaning. Make sense on general principle and very appealing to people’s hearts. But ultimately, way too stuck in black and white, pure principles, ignore all nuance thinking where spherical cows are assumed rather than the complexity of the real world. The people I know who are very into AI are, to be blunt, not real deep thinkers. They want easy, simple answers that make them feel righteous and give them a badge of purity to show off to others.
Andrya
@Geminid: Most people who know me would consider me a “left wing ideolog”, but…
The defense that Israel is not an apartheid state depends on the idea that the occupation of the West Bank is a temporary, wartime situation, analogous to the US occupation of Germany and Japan after WW2. Naturally, Japanese and Germans did not have the right to travel freely in the US, access the benefits/privileges of American citizens, vote, etc. They simply were not Americans, and within a few years they got their own country back.
Note, however, that the US did not settle Americans in either Japan or Germany. Absolutely no one thought we were going to absorb either country permanently.
That is not the case with Israel. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have settled in government-supported settlements, which are connected by highways that West Bank Palestinians are not allowed to use. Settlers have the full protection of Israeli law, whereas West Bank Palestinians are under martial law. Settlements get preferential treatment with regard to scarce, and obviously critical, water. It is extremely difficult for West Bank Palestinians to travel outside of their local area.
I recognize, of course, that both sides contributed to the current awful situation. The strategy of blowing up random civilian targets in Israel (restaurants, buses) was both immoral and strategically disastrous and hardened Israeli attitudes towards Arabs.
Nonetheless, the only moral solution is the two-state solution, after which Israel would have every right to restrict entry into Israel. This would also mean evacuating most West Bank settlements. Do you, does anyone, think this is going to happen?
The South Africans did attempt to set up “Bantustans” in the most undesirable parts of the country, then say “Black people aren’t citizens of South Africa, they are citizens of this Bantustan! They cannot work or travel outside their Bantustan without a special permit!”
If the current situation in the West Bank is permanent- and every indication is that it is permanent- then it is hard to see any difference between the situation on the West Bank and apartheid.
Andrya
@Traveller: Thanks! You made my day.
Geminid
@Andrya: That’s pretty much what Jimmy Carter said and I agree wih him.
Amnesty International has not yet proposed its own solution to the Palestinian/Israeli question. I take its description of Israel as an “apartheid state” as extending beyond that nation’s governance of the West Bank, and it’s control (with Egypt) of Gaza. I think it’s part of a more general movement to stigmatize and delegitimize Israel as an independent nation.
Fairly or unfairly, I include AI in this instance with the BDS movement whose central tenets include the right of Palestinian refugees and their descendents to return to their former homes in the current state of Israel- in effect, a one-state solution that would dissolve Israel as a national entity.
This is a position shared by many people, including many Palestinians and their allies. With the exception of Egypt and Jordan, it was the official position of Arab countries since the formation of the state of Israel in 1948.
That is changing now. Three Arab countries- Bahrain’s, the UAE, and Morocco now have diplomatic relations with Israel, and Saudi Arabia has established military ties. And in Israel proper, there is slow progress towards an equitable integration of that nation’s Arab population into that nation’s civic life.
We really don’t know where this thawing of a situation that has been frozen since 1967 will lead. Israeli attitudes against a two-state solution were hardened by the blood shed in the Second Intfatada. Palestinian sentiment has still not come around to accepting the half loaf that the Oslo Accords and Camp David agreement offered.
I think that with the change in the posture of Arab states there may actually be a settlement of this question in the latter half of this decade. But there is still a rough road to travel before this happens.
We’ve seen this the last couple days in the battle between Israel and Palestine Islamic Jihad and allied groups in Gaza. Hamas had not entered the confict as of a few hours ago but that may change. Then it will be a war on the scale of that in May, 2020, or even larger. That would lead to the shedding of more innocent blood, but will not bring any fundamental change.
way2blue
I read a summary of the AI report with open-mouthed disbelief. That the authors could have missed the glaringly obvious reality of Russian troops shelling civilian structures—completely away from Ukrainian forces—with a goal of terrifying civilians and breaking their spirit. Feigned ignorance? Huh?
Still waiting for a retraction & course correction. But with the AI head blasting out a tweet right after the report landed—attacking any who took issue with the finding as trolls & low lifes made clear that AI has lost the plot…