Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
I will brief you on the past week.
First of all, I want to thank all our soldiers, who are extremely bravely – and in the hottest points of the frontline, with simply superhuman efforts – holding back the enemy.
The Russian army will not change its tactics. The occupiers know that they will lose to the Ukrainians in direct struggle, they are inferior in skill, and that is why the enemy is counting on artillery and indiscriminate shelling.
They try to destroy everything in front of them and enter the ruins. And I am grateful to everyone who, even in such conditions, still is containing the occupiers in Donbas, in Kharkiv region, in the Mykolaiv direction – wherever the confrontation is the most acute.
During this week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our intelligence have achieved powerful results in destroying the logistics of the Russian army, the rear bases of the occupiers. And every strike on the enemy’s ammunition depots, on their command posts, on accumulations of Russian equipment saves the lives of all of us, the lives of Ukrainian military and civilians.
Of course, I thank the partners – everyone who supplies Ukraine with the necessary weapons. In particular, another package of support from the United States was approved this week, which also includes ammunition for the HIMARS systems. Thank you very much. All of them are used as accurately and beneficially as possible for the overall strategy of our defense. We are doing everything to get yet more effective and modern weapons.
It was possible to restore the sea export of Ukrainian agricultural products. Our ports on the Black Sea are operating again. And although it is still too early to give general assessments of the process, we can still say that it is positive both for our state and for all our partners.
However, the key security risk has not yet been removed. The threat of Russian provocations and terrorist attacks remains. Everyone should be aware of this.
But if the partners fulfill their part of the commitment and guarantee the security of the supply, it will really solve the global food crisis.
And we must not forget that the restoration of our sea exports was made possible primarily thanks to our soldiers – all those who defend Odesa and secured the liberation of Snake Island. These are simply heroes.
During the week, opportunities for Ukraine in the African direction were significantly expanded. There were new contacts with state leaders and communication with journalists. I will continue this work next week – another series of negotiations is planned.
Unfortunately, we have a significant worsening of the situation around the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Russian terrorists became the first in the world to use a nuclear plant for terror. The biggest in Europe! We will draw the world’s attention to this and insist on new sanctions against Russia for creating such a global threat.
And despite the fact that the Russian shelling of the nuclear plant is one of the most dangerous crimes against Ukrainians and all Europeans, against the right to life of every person, for some reason there is no report or even a simple notification from Amnesty International about it. A very eloquent silence, which once again indicates the manipulative selectivity of this organization.
This week there are new sanction steps from Canada and the United States. Switzerland made an important decision regarding support for the seventh EU sanctions package. The general tendency to strengthen sanctions remains unchanged and will continue increasing the price for this terror, terror against our people, for the terrorist state.
I want to thank everyone who develops our UNITED24 public charity platform, and all the ambassadors of this platform – Andriy Shevchenko, Elina Svitolinia, Liev Schreiber, the band Imagine Dragons, Demna. This week we summed up the three-month results of work the UNITED24 platform. More than UAH 6 billion were raised in contributions for reconstruction, equipment for hospitals, for the purchase of ambulances – dozens of ambulances were purchased. There is already the first helicopter bought using the funds raised by UNITED24. It will be used to rescue the wounded. It was possible to attract help from more than a hundred countries.
One of the most important areas for August and September is the implementation of our Fast Recovery Plan. What needs to be done in the territory liberated from the enemy to give people conditions for a normal life and to prepare for the autumn and winter season. In total, 1,060 settlements have already been liberated, and the absolute majority of them require significant restoration work, demining, and the construction of social facilities. And I thank all our partners who joined the relevant work.
In particular, this week the delegation of Estonia visited the districts of Zhytomyr region, which the country is helping with recovery. Estonia was the first within the Fast Recovery Plan to choose objects for financing.
We work with diplomats and companies in all other areas that need support and restoration.
We believe in our defenders! We help the defense!
Let’s remain united and do everything for the victory of Ukraine! It will be!
Eternal glory to our soldiers!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00, on August 6, 2022
Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred sixty fourth (164) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile strikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
There are no major changes on the Volyn, Polissya, and Siversky directions. The enemy carried out artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Hai and Mykhalchyna Sloboda of the Chernihiv oblast, as well as Nova Huta of the Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy conducted defensive combat operations with the aim of holding the occupied lines and preventing the offensive of Ukrainian units. Conducted remote mining of the area.
In the Kharkiv direction, the districts of Prudyanka, Slatyne, Pytomnyk, Petrivka, Korobochkyne, Mospanove and Zamulivka were shelled with barrel and rocket artillery. Carried out airstrikes near Verkhniy Saltiv and Lebyazhe.
Conducted aerial reconnaissance by UAVs in the areas of Lisne, Pytomnyk, Ryasne, Protopopivka, Pryshyb and Nortsivka settlements.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy carried out fire damage from artillery of various types near Mazanivka, Krasnopilla, Sulihivka, Karnaukhivka, and Virnopilla.
The enemy is conducting an offensive operation in the Donetsk direction, concentrating its main efforts on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. Uses attack and army aviation.
In the Kramatorsk direction, shelling was recorded near Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka.
In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy from tanks, barrel and jet artillery shelled the areas of the settlements of Bakhmutske, Toretsk, Bilohorivka, Krasnopolivka, Pivnichne and Vershyna. Airstrikes near Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmut and Berestove.
It led offensive battles in the direction of Yakovlivka – Vershyna and Kodema – Zaitseve, it was unsuccessful and left. Leads an offensive in the direction of Bakhmut, hostilities continue.
In the Avdiyivka direction, the enemy fired from barrel and rocket artillery in the vicinity of New York, Pervomaisky, Vodyane and Opytne. Carried out airstrikes near Novohradske, Pavlivka, and Prechistivka. It led an offensive in the direction of Lozove – Nevelske, was unsuccessful, withdrew. Conducted regrouping.
On the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, enemy shelling from barrel, rocket artillery and tanks was recorded in the areas of the settlements of Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Shevchenko, Novodanylivka, Vilne Pole, Burlatske, Zelene Pole, Zeleny Hai, Chervone, Stepove and Vremivka. Airstrikes were carried out near Maryinka, Mali Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novosilka and Temyrivka.
The enemy was conducting aerial reconnaissance by BpLA near Krasnohorivka, Novosilka, and Tavriyskyi.
The enemy is conducting a defensive operation in the South Buz direction. The main efforts are focused on holding the occupied areas and inflicting maximum losses on the units of the Defense Forces.
The enemy fired tanks and various types of artillery in the areas of Lymany, Prybuzke, Tavriyske, Luch, Myrne, Partyzanske, Blahodatne, Shyroke, Kyselivka, Kvitneve, Kavkaz, Bila Krynytsia, Bilohirka, Dobryanka, Osokorivka, and Mykolaivka. It carried out airstrikes in the Andriyivka area, as well as the Khutorska valley and the Plotnytsky tract.
Reconnaissance actions of enemy UAVs were recorded in the vicinity of Bila Krynytsia, Nyzhni Sirohozy, Lozove and Andriivka.
In the waters of the Black Sea, the enemy’s ship group continues to perform the specified tasks. There remains a threat of missile strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine.
Four sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use high-precision weapons.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s assessment from the British MOD:
They did not post an updated map for today.
Marine veteran and current FPRI senior fellow Rob Lee is not completely on board with the force strength projections the British MOD is using for Russia:
I’m skeptical that Russian BTGs are 800-1,000 man strong at this point. https://t.co/lhMoNGVE1T
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 6, 2022
Battalions raised with volunteers will need more leadership to function, which probably means they have to be smaller (no time to train NCOs). I've been skeptical of BTGs as a metric since April, and the variance is only greater now with volunteer units.3/https://t.co/kaGF9qnDQg
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 6, 2022
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recently updated map and assessment for the battle for Kherson from earlier today:
KHERSON AXIS / 1830 UTC 6 AUG / UKR Partisans and deeply inserted SOF continue to provide targeting data on RU ammo storage. RU media reports that an assassination attempt was carried out against Vitaliy Hur, deputy head of occupation authorities in Nova Kakhovka. pic.twitter.com/crgL3iO1vP
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 6, 2022
Imagery from Poposna emerged earlier today. It is graphic – so WARNING – and seems to indicate further Russian war crimes. The imagery is of a Ukrainian POW’s severed and decaying head mounted on a pike.
We saw today people’s heads on a spike in Russian-occupied Popasna.
This is only a fraction of the Russian war crimes committed. I’m terrified when I think of what we’ll see when we retake the Russian-occupied cities and villages.
— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) August 5, 2022
Multiple colleagues say this is authentic.
Because it’s so sickening that I had to ask.
I’m sure Amnesty is sending thoughts and prayers. https://t.co/uoRnvPLHKa
— Natalia Antonova 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@NataliaAntonova) August 5, 2022
We also have further details of Russia’s attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:
Why russians are doing this if they have seized the ZNPP? They try to stage a false flag, to accuse Ukraine of attacking a nuclear facility ofc, & also probably to justify the disconnection of the plant from the UA electricity system, what they have threatened earlier to do
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) August 6, 2022
- Ukrainian staff who run the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant & try to ensure its safe operations are real Heroes. They work under huge pressure. Energoatom has just reported that russians occupied all basements & in case of new russian shellings Ukrainians will be in danger
Yesterday, Bellingcat published their report on the Russian soldier who castrated and executed the Ukrainian POW:
Editor’s note: this article contains descriptions of sexual violence and murder which readers may find disturbing.
On July 28, a series of horrifying videos circulated on pro-Russian social media which depicted an act of sexual violence and execution of what appeared to be a Ukrainian prisoner of war. Bellingcat has not linked to these videos due to their extremely graphic nature.
The three videos (hereafter ‘the violent videos’) were initially posted on a Russian telegram channel whose name translates as ‘Cargo 200, death to Ukrainians’, which extolls casualties among Ukrainian armed forces. The videos were subsequently reposted on the popular Rosich Telegram channel run by a nationalist Russian mercenary group.
The videos were initially celebrated by the channel administrators and most of the commenting users, until several hours later they were suddenly disowned by the same as “likely forgeries”, allegedly planted in the pro-Russian channels by agents of Ukraine aiming to discredit the Russian army.
A description of the act in the videos, which each show a part of the same sequence of events, follows in the closed drop-down box below.
Description of the Three Videos (Caution: disturbing content)
In recent days, journalists and open source researchers have sought to identify the culprits of this apparent war crime, with mixed success. Several incorrect identifications of the man who committed the act – a soldier wearing a cowboy-style hat – were made by various media outlets and individuals online.
Bellingcat researchers have reviewed the footage, which does not contain visible signs of editing or tampering. However, the authenticity of the videos cannot be validated with purely technical means due to the low resolution of the video and the absence of metadata.
Bellingcat’s investigation into visual clues in the videos using the available open source evidence corroborates the authenticity of the three violent videos and indicates that fighters from ‘Akhmat’, a Chechen paramilitary formation serving with the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, were present at the scene of the murder.
The link to ‘Akhmat’ was uncovered while investigating a man who appeared in multiple news broadcasts about the group who wore the same distinctive hat, bracelet and military fatigues as seen worn by one individual in the mutilation video. Several visual clues in these news broadcasts also suggested that they could have been filmed near, and in the same time frame, as the murder videos, including one filmed at the same location in July of this year.
The identity of the individual who wears the cowboy hat in the videos of the ‘Akhmat’ fighters is known to Bellingcat. However, Bellingcat has obscured his image and name as while there are numerous commonalities, the face of the alleged perpetrator cannot be clearly seen in the videos of the act itself.
Bellingcat contacted this individual to offer him a right of reply. In a conversation with reporters, he acknowledged that he had been deployed to Ukraine as a member of the ‘Akhmat’ group, and that he was “the man in the cowboy hat” seen in the news broadcasts. While he denied that he appeared in the mutilation and execution videos, he did confirm that he had been detained and questioned by the Russian security services over the footage, who had told him that it actually depicted Ukrainian soldiers mutilating one of their own comrades.
If you’re interested, click across and read the rest. There’s a lot more in the report include both the imagery they used to do the analysis and a full methodological description. WARNING: SOME OF THIS IS GRAPHIC!!!!
Also yesterday, The Washington Post reported that Putin has turned to Erdogan to bail him out on the economic and sanctions regime:
Russia and Turkey announced Friday that they will strengthen their economic cooperation, amid Western fears that Moscow is seeking new avenues to circumvent sanctions imposed for its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, agreed to boost bilateral trade and take steps to work more closely in the transportation, agriculture, industry and finance sectors, according to a joint statement the leaders released after four hours of talks in Sochi, the Russian resort city on the Black Sea. It was the second time the two men had met in just over two weeks.
The statement did not mention the bilateral trade and economic pact that Putin had called for beforehand. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to questions Friday evening about whether a deal had been signed.
Concerns are increasing in both the West and Ukraine that Moscow is seeking Erdogan’s assistance to bypass restrictions on its banking, energy and industrial sectors, which are biting deeper into its economy. Though a NATO nation, Turkey has not joined other member states in levying the sanctions.
A Russian proposal intercepted ahead of the meeting and shared with The Washington Post by Ukrainian intelligence called for Erdogan’s government to permit Russia to buy stakes in Turkish oil refineries, terminals and reservoirs — a move that economists say could help disguise the origin of its exports after the European Union’s oil embargo kicks in fully next year. Russia also requested that several state-owned Turkish banks allow correspondent accounts for Russia’s biggest banks — which economists and sanctions experts say would be a flagrant breach of Western sanctions — and that Russian industrial producers be allowed to operate out of free economic zones in Turkey.
There was no indication after the talks that Turkey had agreed to such arrangements, which would leave the country’s own banks and companies at risk of secondary sanctions and cut off their access to Western markets. Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, said the two countries had reached new agreements in the financial and banking sphere but did not give specifics.
A senior Turkish official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic meeting, said Friday morning that the country remains “committed to Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.” He added that Turkey “as a matter of principle … exclusively joins sanctions that are imposed by the United Nations.”
Western government officials, also speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation, told The Post that they were not aware of the intercepted proposal but said they fearRussia is seeking ways to circumvent the war-related sanctions and their growing economic damage. Russian officials are traveling the world trying to find people who would be willing to do business with their financial institutions, they said, noting that Turkey is among a group of jurisdictions being approached because of their lax regard to enforcement.
With Russia cut off from much of the global economy, such overtures are a sign of the regime’s increasing worries, those Western officials and economists say. Putin has derided Western sanctions as a failure — a steady stream of revenue from energy sales has propped up the Russian ruble and the country’s financial system — and the International Monetary Fund now forecasts Russia’s economy to fall only 6 percent this year.
But economists say headline numbers mask a collapse across a large swath of Russian manufacturing, and they call the banking sector a “zombie system,” with the withdrawal of hard-currency deposits banned. Though Russia has sought to divert trade flows through countries like India and China, the Western-imposed block on imports of high-tech components has brought some industries to a standstill.
“The situation will be darker next year,” said Sergei Guriev, professor at France’s Sciences Po and former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “No one knows how things are going to function when the European oil embargo kicks in. We’re in unchartered territory.”
More at the link!
Finally, wait for it, wait for it…
This would have never happen if they just stayed home kissing their wives in Russia pic.twitter.com/8v6J1ZCnjf
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 6, 2022
Your daily Patron!
Namaste! Evening yoga with Patron. Relax your body and soul, and try not to think about the blue squirrel. Don’t! Oh, no. Now you can’t think about that😨 #patron #patronthedog #dog #squirrel pic.twitter.com/p6X2pPwaWc
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 6, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
The caption translates as:
😎 #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraini
And just because I’m feeling generous, here’s a Chef Jose Andres update:
Already crossing from Poland into @Ukraine and first thing I See? A @WCKitchen truck bringing some of the things that we can not buy inside Ukraine. Remember over 120 million meals served already all across! Amazing #FoodFighters this Ukranians… pic.twitter.com/sqlevkZBg8
— José Andrés (@chefjoseandres) August 6, 2022
Open thread!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Never saw a cloud of smoke so lovely as in the Ponomarenko tweet. Considering the utter depravity and horror of the preceding items, sorry not sorry to say these monsters have it coming. My brain cannot comprehend being that soulless and barbaric. And yet AI spent their energy tsk tsking the Ukrainians for fighting back in the places where the attacks are occuring. I was very glad Zelenskyy called them out again. Fuck that group, every last employee there who doesn’t quit is complicit.
(BTW looks like the British MOD graphic is missing. It’s in the tweet below but hard to read.)
My mom and I were talking about the Zaporizhzhia situation and she said it was giving her flashbacks to when she was a kid in New York and they did nuke drills in school. I don’t think we did those when I was in school in the 80s and 90s–we were busier with fire and earthquake drills in CA.
Thank you as always, Adam.
BeautifulPlumage
Thank you for all the information and perspective, especially with your IRL priorities. I read the Bellingcat report last night and appreciate that the article used various images but kept the graphic ones behind a link (which I didn’t open). Those folks are doing good work.
Ruckus
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
We did cower drills in CA – hiding under the desks, when I started elementary school over 68 yrs ago. That lasted about a year, when even the kids were asking why we’d bother, considering the pictures we’d seen from Japan. We knew even then that living in a suburb of LA meant we would get it as bad as anyone and very likely not survive. Had a HS friend who’s parents built an underground bomb shelter in their front yard. The only way you knew was the hatch was visible. By the time I was in HS even that family knew better than that would save them. Sure they might live through the attack, but would they want to?
Jay
I was reading a tactical article a couple of days ago, that dove deep into RU shifting from Divisional Groups into BTG’s to modernize the RA.
A few years later, they then pulled the BTG’s back into Regimental Groups, due to problems with lack of command and control.
So now they are back to BTG’s, some little more than a single Company.
Traveller
The idea of 100,000 North Korean’s entering this war on the Russian side does cause me nightmares. (Of course, I just may be a worrier). However, on Russian TV and at the Drive:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-army-of-north-korean-volunteers-reportedly-ready-to-help-russia
Please see Russian TV
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/wh5d1i/russians_talking_about_new_union_with_north_korea/
**************
…this has me worried as worried can be.
It is my hope that this is just a trial balloon…with no substance.
However this does make terrible sense
1. Protects Russia from using it’s urban manpower in St. Petersburg or Moscow….something Putin has wisely been loath to do.
2. North Korean soldiers should be tremendously tenacious fighters, if they are anything like the South Korean units I fought with…you did not want to mess with ROK’s fighters.
3. This not only solves Russia’s manpower problem, this will be good for North Korea with soldier remittances….this probably will not be true for the NORK’s, but Russia is offering Recruits up to $47,000/year for enlistments. Still, any payments will be very good for N. Korea.
4. North Korea will be owed a favor to be called in at some future date from Russia to N Korea.
5. This will internationalize the Ukraine War on a road to a wide spanning world war with combatants on both sides of the continent. Frightening thought.
*******************
Should this start, my only solution is that all rail traffic in Russia within 100 miles of the Ukraine border shall and will be destroyed.
We need to be explicit and open about this not before but only…should, North Korea enter the war. This does scare the dickens out of me.
Best Wishes, Traveller
way2blue
@Ruckus: Reminds me of giving a talk about earthquakes to my son’s first grade class. P waves & S waves and countiing the seconds between them. The likelihood that the ceiling tiles might come down and the overhead lights—so getting under their desks was a good idea. Then one boy asked what to do in the event of thermonuclear war. And I said: Oh! I don’t think getting under your desk will help…
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Fixed!
Jay
@Traveller:
there is a good chance that RU threats of NORKs are like RU threats of nukes.
NORK SOF are so-so.
NORK Army, while fanatical, arn’t known for being tactical.
Adam L Silverman
@BeautifulPlumage: You’re most welcome.
Andrya
@Traveller: Aggghhh! Your post terrified me. Of course, no truth value should be attributed to anything that putin, peshkov, or the russian media says, but your logic makes perfect sense.
There is one factor that I’d like to add on the reassuring side. If North Korea does this, Kim Jong-un has effectively lost control of the risk of nuclear war with the US- he would have ceded that control to putin. Specifically, if Putin escalated the war (for example) by attacking Poland (as being the conduit for war supplies to UK) and (God forbid) that escalated to a nuclear exchange, and if there were NK troops fighting with the russians, NK would probably get nuked too.
I assume that a big part of motivation to be a dictator is wanting to be in control. Plus, I myself have grave doubts that putin is fully rational at this point- if Kim Jong-un has the same doubts, he might hesitate to give putin that much power over NK’s future.
Adam, as always, thanks for doing this. And a humble suggestion- OF COURSE I must have my daily Patron, but, as long as Jose Andres is in UK, it would be wonderful if you could include his updates too.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: One does wonder whether NORK soldiers in UA wouldn’t just, y’know, *defect* en masse. I mean, sure there’s going to be some who will worry for their families, but that’s a lotta soldiers with no good reason to wanna go home when the war’s done.
YY_Sima Qian
Why is the Ukrainian Army allowing the Russian Army to reorient forces from Donbas to the south? Attacking when the Russian forces in the south is most vulnerable & most stretched would have made more sense. Or maybe the impending offensive has more limited aims of liberating Kherson…
patrick II
@Traveller:
Are the bringing their own artillery and ammunition?
Wapiti
@Chetan Murthy: And how are you going to keep them down on the farming collective once they’ve seen the “wealthy” parts of Russia?
YY_Sima Qian
@Traveller: Sounds pretty far fetched. The Kim dynastic regime in NK is not anyone’s puppet, & jealously guards its independence, including from China & Russia. The NKPA has not trained w/ Russians for decades, & many of the equipment are no longer interoperable. Most of the NK rank & file can’t speak Russian.
I think it is far more likely that Russia has been recruiting from the ethnic Korean population in its eastern districts, as well as the Central Asian Republics. There is a sizable Korean population there, legacy of forced resettlement by Stalin of ethnic Korean POWs captured from the IJA’s Kwantung Army as well as Korean settlers that were living in the USSR’s far eastern districts at the end of WW II.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m certainly not qualified to judge these things, but here’s Kos’ take:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/5/2114556/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-lines-recede-south-of-Izyum-as-Russia-rushes-to-potential-Kherson-trap
TL;DR UA is inviting RU to mass its troops on the west bank of the Dnipro near Kherson, and then they’ll cut all the communication lines (bridges, rail, pontoon barges), force them to swim home w/out their equipment, or fight without resupply.
Carlo Graziani
@Traveller: It seems to me that there’s a lot of portent attributed to very little “news”, if I understand what is reported at those links correctly. There are rumors on Russian media of NK “laborers” (not military elements) being proposed as a contribution to the Russian war effort.
I can imagine some kind of dialog on those sorts of terms having occurred. I can also easily imagine the fevered imaginations of Russian patriots seeing some kind of manpower salvation manifesting as an allied oriental horde concealed in such an offer.
What I can’t really see is the clinically paranoid, perennially conspiracy-minded, psychologically insecure NK government separating itself from a military force sufficiently significant to have some kind of impact on the Ukraine war. The North Koreans think that they may have to fight South Korea next week. I doubt very much that they are likely to send highly-trained troops thousands of miles away to a war they care nothing about, just to collect a chit from the Russians.
It sounds like a wishful rumor doing the rounds, to be honest.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: If that is the Ukrainian Army’s plan, they would have damaged the bridges after the Russian Army had massed west of the Dniper in Kherson. As things stands now, the Russian Army is incapable of building up a mass of forces west of Dniper at Kherson (or to sustain such a force if they did), due to the now limited transportation links across the river.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Kim the 3rd selling NK labor to Russia is certainly more plausible.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Looks like Kos likes the E-105 play too.
I just don’t understand, if that’s the play, why hasn’t it gone down already? At this point, the Russians have also reinforced Melitopol, and the sector in front of Zaporitzhzhia. That sector isn’t so sleepy any more. The end of July looked perfect, but it didn’t happen. So the plan is something else. No idea what.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Again, I’m just a dog on the Internet, but from what Kos writes, UA didn’t *take down* the bridges — just damaged them. It was a way of saying “we’re coming”, and would have either induced RU to flee, or to reinforce. In the instance, they’re choosing to reinforce. And apparently there are ton of other bridges all over the region, that can be taken-down, to segment the RU forces into compartments that cannot communicate effectively with each other.
But whatevs. From what Kos writes, it’ll all become clearer soon.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
NORK workers to clear rubble has been a RT thing for a couple of months now.
NORK workers in RU fishplants and logging operations is still “a thing”,
But so far, no sign of NORK workers clearing rubble.
Steeplejack
Just for starters, what is the logistical plan to transport 100,000 North Korean troops and matériel the ≅4,000 miles from Korea to Ukraine? In a timely manner, of course. 🤔
Feathers
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I grew up in a house which would have been in the crater from the Pentagon after a nuclear exchange.
A note on the nuclear drills. They were designed for the era when bombs would have been arriving on planes and presumably a great number would have been shot down. There would be a fairly high survival rate, especially in rural areas. When warheads became missile based, this strategy became obsolete, of course, but the training remained.
My father’s job included being part of the cohort that would keep the US running after a nuclear war. After 9/11 it always fascinated me to hear how devastating terrorist attacks on shopping malls would be, when I knew that the government has plans on how to keep the country going with multiple major cities wiped off the map.
But as to Ukraine, I am more and more angry about the AI report. As someone on Twitter pointed out, this now provides the pretext for the Russians to directly attack schools and hospitals, claiming Ukrainians have been shown to hide troops there. Not that they haven’t been doing this already, but why give them cover.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Chetan Murthy: North Korea would be sending them to UA to die and not want them back since they would have their ideological purity contaminated.
Nettoyeur
@Carlo Graziani: Noko laborers wer sent to the GDR in 1980s. Some still there post re unification.
NYCMT
@Carlo Graziani: I wonder if the plan is an offensive from vuhledar to mariupol in 2 weeks. Or perhaps from hulyaipole to mariupol.
Why? Ukrainians have spent July and the first part of August destroying forward supply in the distant supply area west of Mariupol – Kherson, Zaporozhzhe, and Donetsk oblasts – which is primarily supplied from Rostov by heavy rail, and ancillarily via Crimea. If half the Russian army is in this area very far from the railheads in the Donbass, which can be cut by a relatively short advance to the sea of Azov, sixty six Russian battalion tactical groups may be stranded on the left side with a supply line snaking 800 km back to Krasnodar.
Traveller
Steeplejack, Jay and Chetan Murthy all make very good points…especially re logistics for such a large force. And yet, they would certainly need less food and such than regular Russian forces.
I was in fact somewhat worried when Serbia was acting up last week in reference to Kosovo…air raid sirens were blaring and police and other forces were amassing at the primary border crossings. But things have receded, matters have calmed down and Serbia seems less bellicose…and maybe Kosovo less confrontational…regardless, tensions do seem to have lessened and this may prove to be true in reference to North Korea also…but there are some really big benefits for them to push forward on this, let us hope that this is a passing fever.
Best Wishes, Traveller
Gvg
If Russian authorities are actually hinting North Koreans may help save the day, that is IMO almost a concession they have lost. NK is too far away, too weak, and not a likely tool for the task at all. It means all their other presumed resources closer to hand which they were thought to have before this war have run dry, that their subject Republics have been unable or unwilling to send troops, that their own control or their own country is not actually good enough that they can draft their own people for this war. They have lost.
I think it is actually significant that Putin won’t draft around Moscow. I suspect he could if this war was really necessary but it’s not and his control isn’t quite absolute either. I hadn’t realized before how much Russia is really just Moscow and the rest of the country doesn’t count as much. Was it always that way? Anyway, I notice there have been a succession of rumors about who or which ally is going to save them. China, India, Turkey, African nations trading, sanction evaders….Russia is exposed. I wonder if their citizens have noticed?
Uncle Cosmo
Not sure of that; US airspace is vast and even big bombers are hard to find.
More to the point, in the very limited time window where “duck & cover” and urban fallout shelters made sense**, the arriving bombs would have been first- or second-generation fission weapons of yields <100kT. I was in elementary school about 5 miles ESE of the center of Baltimore. If da Rooskies had dropped a bomb like that at the intersection of Baltimore and Charles Streets, and our teachers had pulled down the shades on the windows as we ducked and covered, most of us kids would have survived with very few severe injuries.
** That window stretched from the first Soviet A-bomb test (“Joe-1”, August 1949) until the USSR possessed both H-bombs in the megaton range (first test, November 1955) and a delivery system able to reach the continental US (Tu-95 “Bear” intercontinental bomber, entered service in early 1956). When you recall that in 1949 the “Super” [fusion bomb] wasn’t much more than Edward Teller’s fever dream, “duck & cover” made a lot of sense, only to be overcome by events.
Again, more to the point, the bombers were a lot more reliable and accurate, and once they could deliver megaton-range devices to US cities, us kids would mostly have been found dead under the rubble of our schoolhouses (presuming there was anyone left to dig us up).
Gin & Tonic
@Gvg:
Yes.
No.
Carlo Graziani
Good article at The Drive drilling down on the supply chain issues affecting the M-31 rockets — the HIMARS munitions currently being supplied to Ukraine — which resolves a puzzle that I’d been wondering about: why the high level of secrecy concerning the number of these rockets being supplied.
The answer is that peacetime budget planning led to a procurement schedule such that if all 16 HIMARS units in Ukraine were to fire two of their six-packs of rockets once per day, the would consume about 5800 rockets in a single month, amounting to approximately 29% of the planned total 2022-2027 US Army procurement. Mark Hertling pointed this problem out in a recent tweet.
Clearly, the UA is not firing at anything near that rate. They are choosing their targets very carefully with a view to trading each rocket for a high military value. Almost certainly they are being supplied with short rations of M-31 six-packs, a few (10?) per HIMARS unit, in order to encourage them to be conservative with their munition expenditure, because until production is ramped up and procurement layed on at levels reflecting 2022 assumptions, this weapon cannot be used in any other way, even in emergencies or to take advantage of tactical opportunities.
I had misinterpreted this conservative firing rate as a gathering of “non-speaking,” well-munitioned HIMARS into some kind of mobile attack force for the counteroffensive, while a few remaining units loudly and showily screwed with Russian rear-area logistics and C3 in the Eastern and Western battlefields. This was obviously wrong. There are no well-munitioned HIMARS units in Ukraine. The secrecy over rocket supply is to cover up the fact that the rocket supply is a serious bottleneck, and to avoid it becoming a media distraction, or media cause (“Free The M-31s!”). And the Ukrainian calls for “100 HIMARS” are diplomatic bullshit to keep up pressure for more weapons supplies of all kinds, from the US and from other sources. Which is perfectly clean play on their part.
terry chay
@Traveller: This is laughable. So many reasons why anything like this is logistically and politically impossible. Suspect this is made up 😈 article.