Earlier today almost all of Ukraine was under air raid warning:
Update: Military depots were hit by Russian missile strikes in Vinnytsia region, local authorities confirmed. There are casualties. They are looking into why an air raid alert was missing. Still no official info about explosions in other regions
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) August 7, 2022
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is the Day of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and now I want to once again congratulate all military pilots and also all defenders of our skies on a professional holiday.
We are all proud of you and wish you so many victories that the Russian soldiers are simply afraid of even the very thought of our Ukrainian sky.
This morning, I congratulated the fighters and commanders of the Air Force, handed out state awards to the best warriors.
I handed over the “Golden Star” orders to the wives of the fallen Heroes of Ukraine – Lieutenant colonel Eduard Vahorovsky and Major Dmytro Kolomiyets. They gave their lives saving their brothers and protecting our state. Eternal memory and gratitude to the Heroes!
I spoke today with President of the European Council Charles Michel. I informed him about the situation on the battlefield, about the threat that Russia created by striking at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. There is no such nation in the world that can feel safe when a terrorist state fires at a nuclear plant. God forbid, if something irreparable happens, no one will stop the wind that will spread the radioactive contamination. Therefore, a principled response of the international community to these Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia NPP – the largest in Europe – is needed right now.
The situation in Donbas remains very difficult. Our army is doing everything possible to stop the Russian terror and inflict the greatest possible losses on the occupiers. Avdiivka, Pisky, Maryinka, Bakhmut and other hot areas in the Donetsk region take the main efforts and, unfortunately, many lives.
It is also difficult in the Kharkiv region, in the south of our country, where the occupiers are trying to concentrate their forces.
The key thing now, just as before, is weapons for our defense, weapons from partners. Every day without any pauses, we work to increase the supply of weapons, to send more powerful and long-range systems to the front.
And next week we expect news from partners regarding support packages. Good news.
In this summer time, every week there are more and more reports that the occupiers are preparing for pseudo-referendums in the occupied areas of the south of our country. I want to say a very simple thing: everyone who helps the occupiers in any way realize their intention will be held accountable. They will bear responsibility to Ukraine.
The position of our state remains the same: we will not give up anything of ours, and if the occupiers follow the path of these pseudo-referendums, they will close for themselves any possibility of negotiations with Ukraine and the free world, which the Russian side will definitely need in a certain moment.
Next week, I will continue the practice of political appeals to representatives of partner states and nations who defend freedom together with us. A number of important negotiations are also planned – and not only with current politicians.
As before, Ukraine will do everything to make our struggle and Ukrainian needs known in all countries of the world and in all audiences – even those who usually do not follow political life.
In particular, American actress Jessica Chastain arrived in Kyiv today. She visited “Okhmatdyt” and saw with her own eyes the consequences of the Russian occupation in Irpin, Kyiv region.
Her story about our war will definitely be heard. We are preparing an important humanitarian event.
And I am grateful to all friends of Ukraine abroad and to everyone who helps expand our ties in the world.
We are doing everything to win, everything to protect our country.
I wish all of us Ukrainians a fruitful new week!
Glory to our warriors!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was no operational update today from Ukraine’s MOD.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
They did not issue an updated map for today.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s update map and analysis of the battle of Kherson:
KHERSON / 2130 UTC 7 AUG / Ukrainian Partisans and and Special Operations Forces continue to identify lucrative targets for HIMARS and precision artillery. Reports indicate a strikes in the vicinity of the Kherson airfield and the M-14 HWY bridge. pic.twitter.com/9J0bRlgD8L
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 7, 2022
Speaking of the south of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force went on the attack on Friday!
Alexey #Arestovych, adviser to the head of the Office of the President. On August 5, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a massive attack on the Russians in the #Kherson region. "There were 8-10 planes in one sortie at a time, and there was more than one sortie" #War_in_Ukraine pic.twitter.com/rAiRC7EuwZ
— Харьков_Живет Kharkiv_Lives (@HarZizn) August 6, 2022
Most likely included these airedales:
A pair of Ukrainian Su-25s, each carrying four empty O-25 rocket pods and a pair of drop tanks, head back from the front pic.twitter.com/CLLGLy0Gap
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 6, 2022
Tallyho!!!!!
Earlier today the Ukrainian Army once again targeted the Antonovsky Bridge with their HIMARS!
PRECISION STRIKE: This evening HIMARS again engaged the M-14 HWY Antonovsky bridge in Kherson. The north and south parts of the span were targeted. Sources provided this photo of a secondary fire on the span. The RU 42nd Army remains dependent on a pontoon ferry for supplies. pic.twitter.com/w9wtnnOYai
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 7, 2022
Apparently the commander of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia is not particularly tightly tethered:
“This will be Russian land or scorched earth!” The commander of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhya, who’s also the head of Russia’s defense “against” radioactive, chemical and biological threats reportedly threatens “various scenarios” at Enerhodar plant. pic.twitter.com/LZ5MfAADjL
— Charles McPhedran (@charliekreuz) August 7, 2022
“And we are not hiding it from our enemy. We are alerting them. They know that it’ll be Russian, or nobody’s. We are prepared for the consequences of [taking] this step.” @iaeaorg @antonioguterres
— Charles McPhedran (@charliekreuz) August 7, 2022
Again: what could possibly go wrong?
Yesterday, The Guardian did a deep dive into the Olenivka Detention Center:
Screams from soldiers being tortured, overflowing cells, inhuman conditions, a regime of intimidation and murder. Inedible gruel, no communication with the outside world, and days marked off with a home-made calendar written on a box of tea.
This, according to a prisoner who was there, is what conditions are like inside Olenivka, the notorious detention centre outside Donetsk where dozens of Ukrainian soldiers burned to death in a horrific episode late last month while in Russian captivity.
Anna Vorosheva – a 45-year-old Ukrainian entrepreneur – gave a harrowing account to the Observer of her time inside the jail. She spent 100 days in Olenivka after being detained in mid-March at a checkpoint run by the pro-Russian Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) in eastern Ukraine.
She had been trying to deliver humanitarian supplies to Mariupol, her home city, which the Russian army had besieged. The separatists arrested her and drove her in a packed police van to the prison, where she was held until early July on charges of “terrorism”.
Now recovering in France, Vorosheva said she had no doubt Russia “cynically and deliberately” murdered Ukrainian prisoners of war. “We are talking about absolute evil,” she said.
The fighters were blown up on 29 July in a mysterious and devastating explosion. Moscow claims Ukraine killed them with a US-made precision-guided Himars rocket. Satellite images and independent analysis, however, suggest they were obliterated by a powerful bomb detonated from inside the building.
Russia says 53 prisoners were killed and 75 injured. Ukraine has been unable to confirm these figures and has called for an investigation. The victims were members of the Azov battalion. Until their surrender in May, they had defended Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant, holding out underground.
A day before the blast, they were transferred to a separate area in the camp’s industrial zone, some distance from the grimy two-storey concrete block where Vorosheva shared a cell with other women prisoners. Video shown on Russian state TV revealed charred bodies and twisted metal bunk beds.
“Russia didn’t want them to stay alive. I’m sure some of those ‘killed’ in the explosion were already corpses. It was a convenient way of accounting for the fact they had been tortured to death,” she said.
Male prisoners were regularly removed from their cells, beaten, then locked up again. “We heard their cries,” she said. “They played loud music to cover the screams. Torture happened all the time. Investigators would joke about it and ask inmates, ‘What happened to your face?’ The soldier would reply, ‘I fell over’, and they would laugh.
“It was a demonstration of power. The prisoners understood that anything could happen to them, that they might easily be killed. A small number of the Azov guys were captured before the mass surrender in May.”
Vorosheva said there was constant traffic around Olenivka, known as correctional colony No 120. A former Soviet technical school, it was converted in the 1980s into a prison, and later abandoned. The DNR began using it earlier this year to house enemy civilians.
Captives arrived and departed every day at the camp, 20km south-west of occupied Donetsk, Vorosheva told the Observer. Around 2,500 people were held there, with the figure sometimes rising to 3,500-4,000, she estimated. There was no running water or electricity.
The atmosphere changed when around 2,000 Azov fighters were bussed in on the morning of 17 May, she said. Russian flags were raised and the DNR colours taken down. Guards were initially wary of the new prisoners. Later they talked openly about how they were going to brutalise and humiliate them, she said.
“We were frequently called Nazis and terrorists. One of the women in my cell was an Azovstal medic. She was pregnant. I asked if I could give her my food ration. I was told, ‘No, she’s a killer’. The only question they ever asked me was, ‘Do you know any Azov soldiers?’”
Conditions for the female inmates were grim. She said they were not tortured but received barely any food – 50g of bread for dinner and sometimes porridge. “It was fit for pigs,” she said. She suspected the prison governor siphoned off money allocated for meals. The toilets overflowed and the women were given no sanitary products. The cells were so overcrowded they slept in shifts. “It was tough. People were crying, worried about their kids and families.” Asked if the guards ever showed sympathy, she said an anonymous person once left them a bottle of shampoo.
According to Vorosheva, the camp’s staff were brainwashed by Russian propaganda and considered Ukrainians to be Nazis. Some were local villagers. “They blamed us for the fact that their lives were terrible. It was like an alcoholic who says he drinks vodka because his wife is no good.
“The philosophy is: ‘Everything is horrible for us, so everything should be horrible for you’. It’s all very communist.”
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has called the explosion “a deliberate Russian war crime and a deliberate mass murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war”. Last week, his office and Ukraine’s defence ministry gave details of clues which they say point to the Kremlin’s guilt.
Citing satellite images and phone intercepts and intelligence, they said Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group carried out the killings in collaboration with Vladimir Putin’s FSB spy agency. They point to the fact a row of graves was dug in the colony a few days before the blast.
The operation was approved at the “highest level” in Moscow, they allege. “Russia is not a democracy. The dictator is personally responsible for everything, whether it’s MH17, Bucha or Olenivka,” one intelligence source said. “The question is: when will Putin acknowledge his atrocities.”
One version of events being examined by Kyiv is that the blast may have been the result of intra-service rivalries between Russia’s FSB and GRU military intelligence wings. The GRU negotiated Azovstal’s surrender with its Ukrainian army counterpart, sources suggest – a deal the FSB may have been keen to wreck.
The soldiers should have been protected by guarantees given by Russia to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross that the Azov detainees would be properly treated. Since the blast, the Russians have refused to give international representatives any access to the site.
Vorosheva said the Red Cross were allowed into the camp in May. She said the Russians took the visitors to a specially renovated room and did not allow them to talk independently to the prisoners. “It was a show,” she said. “We were asked to give our clothes’ size and told the Red Cross would hand out something. Nothing reached us.”
Other detainees confirmed Vorosheva’s version of events and said the Azov soldiers were treated worse than civilians. Dmitry Bodrov, a 32-year-old volunteer worker, told the Wall Street Journal the guards took anyone they suspected of misbehaviour to a special disciplinary section of the camp for beatings.
More at the link!
I’ve seen the reporting regarding Russia asking the DPRK for personnel to assist in the re-invasion of Ukraine. The original source for this was Russian state backed television. Until or unless there’s confirmation from a more reliable source its RUMINT at best.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
When I heard about 100,000 soldiers from DPRK who "will help russia fight nazism in Ukraine." But for the first two weeks, they’ll be amazed by smartphones, solar batteries, and Teslas in UA villages. And then they will want to accept Ukrainian citizenship (who’ll survive) 😛 pic.twitter.com/GlFY8PXchl
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 7, 2022
And we finish with a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Не помітили такий талант… @Злата Огневич #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption translates as:
They didn’t notice such a talent… @Zlata Ognevich #pespatron #patrondsns
Open thread!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
My God, the article about Olenivka…here’s hoping all the HIMARS explosions are getting the russians accustomed to heat, because they’re going to be experiencing a lot of it once their horrid blackened souls shuffle off this mortal coil.
Adam, earlier I read this about Graham and Blumenthal putting pressure on the Biden admin to officially designate russia as a state sponsor of terror. I know Blinken has kind of demurred on the subject, and I’ve seen arguments pro and con. For me, on an emotional level, I want them to do it, but I don’t have a good grasp of all of the ripple effects it might cause. Forgive me if you’ve already discussed it in a previous update (there’s so much info, it’s hard to retain it all!), but I’m curious as to your thoughts on the matter.
That photo of Patron is definitely one of the sweetest I’ve seen.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I’ve read that such a designation would put our allies and trading partners in a tough spot: some of them don’t want to go as far as we do (or might) and it would force them to pick sides. I guess I can see the reason in such a position, even though at this point I want Moscow wiped off the face of the Earth.
zhena gogolia
Gulag redux
Spanky
I would be kinda curious, in a morbid sort of way, as to the unintended consequences of having a 100,000 North Korean troops sitting on Russia’s western border while the rest of the army sits on Russia’s eastern border. It might give Li’l Kim thoughts.
Omnes Omnibus
There is an Edmund Burke quotation that I understand Simon Wiesenthal was known to repeat: I do not know the method of drawing up an indictment against a whole people.
Omnes Omnibus
@Spanky: Ignoring all of logistic issues with bringing 100,000 North Korean soldiers and their equipment, etc., to this war, it simply won’t happen because it would be Putin was admitting that he can’t win without help. And that isn’t going to happen.
Steve in the ATL
Speaking of which, I am drinking amarone della valpolicella with wasabi crab cakes and I FEEL NO GUILT WHATSOEVER!
Further bulletins as events warrant.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steve in the ATL: You’re a management side lawyer. Are you capable of feeling guilt?
Spanky
@Omnes Omnibus: There you go again, bringing logic into my daydreams. Go away.
Carlo Graziani
The continuing HIMARS strikes at the Antonovsky bridge serve to demonstrate how difficult it is to permanently destroy a bridge by indirect fires. All they do is hole the deck, without compromising the supports. It is presumably possible to damage the structure with enough munitions concentrated above a support over a suffuciently short period. But it’s now clear that the M-31 rockets that serve as HIMARS munitions are in short supply, and can’t be used indiscriminately.
As to the longer-range (300 km), higher-payload ATACMS rockets that have been occasionally discussed as possible options, it turns out that the US Army only has about 280 of the Block 1A Unitary types, which can be fitted with 247 kg penetrator HE warheads. The very small number available may be as much of a reason for the reluctance to hand any over to the Ukrainians as the possibility that they might use them to target Russian territory.
It does occur to me, however, that now that the Russians are definitely using the Kerch bridge to reinforce the South, that bridge becomes a legitimate military target on what is, after all, legally Ukrainian soil. So the donation to the UA of, say, 4 ATACMS rockets on the understanding that they are to be used exclusively to attack the support structure of that bridge could be a decision that passes a cost-benefit analysis.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Omnes Omnibus: Good point.
Carlo Graziani
@Steve in the ATL: Barbarian. You can’t even taste it.
Steve in the ATL
@Omnes Omnibus: fair point. Let’s stick it to The Man! Er, I mean the other guy. Let’s give it all to The Man!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, that’s what I’ve read too. But my God, does that ever feel heartless. Like, I’m sure the Ukrainians would LOVE if trade issues were the biggest concern they were facing right now.
Steve in the ATL
@Carlo Graziani: NO GUILT WHATSOEVER.
Carlo Graziani
@Steve in the ATL: You’re in Atlanta. Drink Coke.That’s your terroir.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: whatever- Russia in it’s current form cannot exist.
Geoduck
@Carlo Graziani:
“Enough of this heresy. At the stroke of dawn take them out and kill them. And when you’ve killed them, burn the bodies, then bring me the cold ashes on a silver plate, with a glass of chilled sancerre.”
“This guy’s an animal. Doesn’t he know it’s red wine with cold ashes?”
Steve in the ATL
@Carlo Graziani: I don’t do caffeine, but when I did, true to my Chicago area birth, I preferred Pepsi. It’s been the source of marital tension for many years with my very southern wife!
Gin & Tonic
Was on the phone earlier today with a friend in Chernivtsi, the only oblast that hasn’t (yet) suffered artillery or missile strikes, and she said she was up half the night due to the sirens.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: He deals with contracts all day. Not actual justice.
The Pale Scot
@Carlo Graziani:
I think neither side wants to drop the bridges, both plan to use them. The supporting pillars and beam do not seem damaged, It should be possible to cover the road surface with steel plating. I don’t know why the orcs haven’t tried that. I suppose they all were stolen.
Bill Arnold
No, they are not prepared for the consequences.
I have to assume that this action is supported all the way up the chain of command. (Would be good to find out that it is not.)
Carlo Graziani
Very quiet here, this evening. So here’s an interesting read from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA): Russia’s Military Grows Afraid of the Long War. Evidence of buyer’s remorse on Telegram, from actual Russian military and policy professionals, as opposed to siloviki, media bloviators, and hyperpatriots blogging from their parent’s basements. Among other things, a reference to internal research polling numbers on falling national support for the “special military operation”.
Interesting, because if things should suddenly go really badly for Russia due to a combination of battlefield reverses and economic catastrophes, there may be a nucleating grievance center inside the military that has a beef with the siloviki.
Carlo Graziani
@The Pale Scot: There’s a very good article at The Drive pointing out the extremely constrained supply chain behind the M-31 HIMARS rockets munitions. Basically, they can only be fired at low rates, at extremely high-value targets. They certainly cannot be salvoed in such a way as to allow their puny 200 lb HE warheads to mimic a hard-target penetrator.
I think the UA would like to drop that bridge, because then they wouldn’t have to keep wasting scarce HIMARS munitions on it every few days to re-hole it. But the point is moot, because unless they can get close enough to sight a gun on a bridge support, there’s nothing they can do to damage the bridge structure.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
there is a good chance that these are desperate empty threats like tactical nukes, attacking NATO or 100,000 NORK soldiers.
Blowing up Zaporizhzhia would be at a minimum, 4 times worse than Chernobyl, and most of the mess will wind up in Russia.
Just making the threat proves Russia is a terrorist nation.
Mallard Filmore
@Jay:
How big a slice of the NK army would go off to fight in Ukraine?
Related:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5hzTaX7chk
Title “Russian Needs Military Help from North Korea”
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
100,000 would be roughly 10% of the active military, not including reserves.
3 months ago Russia claimed that they were recruiting tens of thousands of NORKs to clear rubble and rebuild in the DPR and LPR.
no NORKs yet. Vapour ware.
daveNYC
On the Ukrainian Air Force sorties, there’s some somewhat legit rumors going about that Ukraine got themselves some AGM-88 HARM missiles. Interesting question of how they were launched. Poland has MiG-29’s that can fire them and other NATO weapons, so technical help from that quarter is possible. Something something off a drone might be possible, depending on what has been sent to them. The other interesting option is that Northrop Grumman has been working on a ground launched version of the missile.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-now-have-agm-88-high-speed-anti-radiation-missiles
YY_Sima Qian
@daveNYC: Which aircraft could the Ukrainian Air Force integrate the HARM missiles to? I am pretty sure it would not be compatible w/ fire controls of the Soviet era MiG-29s, Su-25s & Su27s the Ukraine operates. I don’t know if any of the Soviet era aircraft in the services of NATO countries have ever been integrated w/ HARMs.
Barry
@Spanky: “It might give Li’l Kim thoughts.”
First, Russia might be their only petroleum supplier.
Second, if the Russian Army has been hollowed out, what shape is the North Korean Army in?