Tonight we’re going to focus on Crimea.
Earlier today a Russian ammo depot blew up in Crimea.
Video clearly showing two large explosions happening exactly simultaneously at two different locations. They happened simultaneously to the second.
Afterwards a third large explosion is seen. pic.twitter.com/OC0OIyaWUD
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) August 9, 2022
This video shows that the two explosions at Novofedorivka did not originate at the exact same position. It appears to me as if both munitions storage sites were hit and causing large secondary explosions. https://t.co/CfUWGhzoTK pic.twitter.com/o87MNcyzRe
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) August 9, 2022
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening, which touches on this. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, there is a lot of attention to the topic of Crimea. And rightly so. Because Crimea is Ukrainian, and we will never give it up.
We will not forget that the Russian war against Ukraine began with the occupation of Crimea.
Russia has turned our peninsula, which has always been and will be one of the best places in Europe, into one of the most dangerous places in Europe. Russia brought large-scale repression, environmental problems, economic hopelessness and war to Crimea. War.
Perhaps historians will one day determine how many people were killed as a result of Russia’s use of Crimea for terror. Tens of thousands? Hundreds of thousands? From Ukraine and Georgia to Syria and more remote regions.
The presence of Russian occupiers in Crimea is a threat to the entire Europe and to global stability. The Black Sea region cannot be safe as long as Crimea is occupied. There will be no stable and lasting peace in many countries on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea as long as Russia is able to use our peninsula as its military base.
This Russian war against Ukraine and against the entire free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea – with its liberation. Today it is impossible to say when this will happen. But we are constantly adding the necessary components to the formula of liberation of Crimea.
We launched the Crimea Platform – a key diplomatic platform for the work on the liberation of Crimea. The Crimea Platform will work this year as well. We are already preparing for this summit.
The Crimean topic sounds on all international platforms where the Russian war against our state is discussed. The history of the global response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea, or rather the lack of such a response, is now one of the best arguments for strengthening sanctions against Russia. The world is beginning to recognize that it made a mistake in 2014 when it decided not to respond with full force to Russia’s first aggressive steps.
And, of course, we pay due attention to the struggle for rights and historical justice for the indigenous peoples of Ukraine – the Crimean Tatar people, Karaites and Krymchaks. Today, on the International Day of the World’s Indigenous Peoples, we really have something to say.
Last summer, the fundamental law on indigenous peoples of Ukraine was adopted. This law recognizes the rights of indigenous peoples and representative bodies of indigenous peoples.
Ukraine is a multinational state. Various national communities have been living on our land for centuries. But most of them have experience of state formation outside of Ukraine. Our state is native to peoples whose national cultures and aspirations were formed in Crimea. Therefore, when we are working for the liberation of the peninsula, we are fighting for the restoration of the territorial integrity of our state and for the return of home to the indigenous peoples of Ukraine. I believe that it will be so. I know that we will return to the Ukrainian Crimea. And I am grateful to all our partners and international organizations that help us in this.
It is too early to disclose all the details, but this year the work of the Crimea Platform will be no less important and representative than last year, when its first summit was held in Kyiv. The format will be different, but the value will be even greater.
We are preparing new solutions for the protection and assistance in the realization of the rights of the indigenous peoples of Ukraine. We are also preparing programs for the economic recovery of our Crimea after its liberation from the occupiers.
Well, the main thing is to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine, our intelligence and everyone who is fighting to liberate our land and repel the Russian colonial invasion.
From the Kharkiv region to Kherson, from Donetsk to Enerhodar, from Stanytsia Luhanska to Yalta, from Berdyansk to Novofedorivka – these are all parts of our country, this is Ukraine, which will be completely free.
Today I signed a new decree on awarding our defenders. 182 combatants were awarded state awards. The total number of awarded Ukrainian warriors has already exceeded 26,000 since February 24.
I thank everyone who defends Ukraine!
Eternal glory to all who fight for freedom!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has its tongue firmly planted in its cheek:
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying troops on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea is not compatible with the high tourist season. pic.twitter.com/PFl6jBzKh4
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 9, 2022
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reaction to the Crimean blast: pic.twitter.com/v8rUeTtFLc
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2022
The Russians, of course, are claiming its an accident:
According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, this was just detonation of “several munition projectiles” for absolutely no reason. No casualties, nothing significant.
Have we heard something like this back in April? pic.twitter.com/4cjjPRqwCi— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2022
Well that Russian statement is no longer operable:
BATTLE DAMAGE REPORT: The first photos of the results of the attack one the Russian Naval Air Station at Saki. The Russian MoD had previously reported that no aircraft were damaged. This one, obviously, was. https://t.co/uN9Uvpg3u7 pic.twitter.com/RBhYPWRvS7
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 9, 2022
Also, this is important to keep in mind:
US officials have clarified that targets in Crimea are fair game, including the Kerch Strait Bridge, as they see it as Russian occupied territory of Ukraine. No escalation ceiling for US weapons use for Crimean targets. As for what was used here, lots of fingers pointing…
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) August 9, 2022
Just some very brief spot analysis. I think the Ukrainian communication strategy regarding this incident is very telling. While everyone speculates if the US or one of our NATO partners managed to ship Ukraine an ATACMS or two and no one noticed, or if this is a Ukrainian designed and built weapon as part of its munition program, or its Ukrainian partisan and/or Ukrainian SOF activity in Russian occupied Crimea, Ukraine has decided to go with a the strategic communication equivalent of the Cheshire Cat’s grin. And that’s both a good communication strategy and an effective one. Some times strategic ambivalence is the way to go.
I expect we’ll learn more in the days to come.
Your daily Patron!
« What is love? Oh baby don’t hurt me, don’t hurt me. No more. Ohhhh ohhhh ooooooo, oooooo, oooo » 🎶😀 pic.twitter.com/EfIMgZxk4u
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 9, 2022
Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Особистий простір? Ні, не чули! #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption translates as:
Personal space? No, they haven’t heard! #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraine
Open thread!
dmsilev
Pshaw. Just a few cosmetic dents, it’ll buff out in no time and we can patch the paint and good as new!
Another Scott
I liked the russian explanation – “Oh that? Just an ammo dump that exploded. No big deal. Had nothing to do with Ukraine.” As if ammo dumps blow up all the time for no reason and it’s no big deal.
It’s pathological. They seem completely unable to consider that maybe lying continuously isn’t the solution to every communications problem.
The nearly simultaneous, spatially separated, explosions in the first tweet would seemingly be a very , very unlikely accident.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Spanky
I’m pretty sure that aircraft damage will buff right out.
Eta shakes fist at dmsilev.
Wag
@Another Scott:
the Russian explanation sounds suspiciously like the GOP response to so many transgressions by Trump. Nothing to see here. Perfectly fine.
Frankensteinbeck
@Another Scott:
It really is. They remind me of Trump that way. Even when the truth would be better, they lie.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I love it. Ukrainians all around are fucking bosses. Case in point: This made me cackle earlier.
I adore Patron enough that I forgive him for putting that ferkakte song in my head.
Thank you as always, Adam.
dimmsdale
Thanks as always for your tireless updates, Adam. On a slightly different tangent, not sure if you have any perspective to add to the big doin’s at Mar-a-Lago, but there are lots of people speculating, including many who shouldn’t, and in matters involving potential NatSec stuff, I never feel fully informed until you’ve weighed in. Thanks again.
Ken
Given the sort of Russian maintenance that we’ve often seen since this phase of the war began, it’s not totally implausible.
But it also fits the pattern of the Moskva sinking, where Russia decided to go with “we’re incompetent” by claiming it was a towing accident.
planetjanet
As soon as I heard about the explosion in Crimea, I first went to Google maps to see where it was, hoping it was the Kerch Strait or Sevastopol. Only 70 km from Sevastopol. Then I went back to yesterday’s map by Pfarrar of the range of a HIMARS. That had to be a bit closer. This took some real courage. Have to admit to feeling elated about it.
ETA: There is already a wikipedia mention of the explosion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novofedorivka
Elizabelle
Patron needs his rest! He’s a hard working lil doggo.
HumboldtBlue
Any thoughts on the weapons used for the airbase attack, Adam?
RaflW
@Another Scott: It seems like Russian ammo dumps do blow up with surprising frequency these days. Such a shame they’re so careless.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue team
@dmsilev: it’s only resting? 😂
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue team
Thank you for this Adam
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@Wag: Real Baghdad Bob energy
SiubhanDuinne
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Me too, my friend. Me too.
piratedan
@RaflW: suspect that they are using the Texas fertilizer storage methodology… perhaps that is what Cornym passed along on his July 4th visit.
Feathers
Love the Marvin the Martian reference. Thanks for the update and glad to hear happy news.
Wag
@twbrandt (formerly tom):
Amusing self delusion
Gin & Tonic
There was also definite strategic communication value to doing this in broad daylight, in mid-August, when there’s a shitload of russian tourists there to see it.
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale: The DOJ sent the head of counterintelligence and export control to Mar a Lago in June of 2022, so two months ago, with several agents. They met with trump’s lawyer and were informed there was still classified documents on site. CNN has the details:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/08/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-fbi-donald-trump/index.html
Apparently 10 more boxes. Whatever the DOJ official saw or heard must have been really bad. Additionally, this is the DOJ official who gets involved if you’re worried someone was giving, trading, and/or selling classified information. If this is the case we’re most likely looking at a Middle Eastern, specifically an MBS, problem. But if Trump was selling this info or someone close to him like Jared was doing it on Trump’s behalf, I could see MBS, Bibi, Putin, MBZ, even Xi and Kim all being in play as potential parties to that kind of activity.
Adam L Silverman
@HumboldtBlue: They we’re definitely the ones that go boom.
Honestly, I have no idea. Ordnance is not my specialty area.
Bill Arnold
For what it’s worth, that report about a Russian General threatening about mining of the Zaporizhzhia NPP may have been falsified, and that might provide some media cover for more clearly real and similar Zaporizhzhia NPP-related war crimes. Provenance of the probably-false report has not been determined. (I have not dug into this, also FWIW.) So much disinformation playing with confirmation biases!
Aug 8, 2022, Institute for the Study of War.
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale: One final point before I crash for the night: it coukd be what I wrote in my initial reply, but it could be a dozen other things too.
Geoduck
@Wag: “Nothing to see here! Please disperse!“
Gin & Tonic
One of the effects of those accidental explosions:
Geoduck
@Gin & Tonic: Note of warning- some commentators in that thread are saying that the photo isn’t current and/or accurate.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Hope they’ve all got empty vodka bottles to piss in.
Also, I love that when I clicked through to that tweet, the top two trending topics in the sidebar are ATACMS and HIMARS.
Carlo Graziani
@HumboldtBlue: Pretty sure that if it had been an artillery rocket attack, we’d know from that first footage.
That camera was pointing out of a window exactly at the right place and time of the attack. The guy (or gal) even knew to the second when to zoom in. Whoever was operating it either arranged the attack or coordinated it. And is also long-gone from that apartment, which is currently being torn apart by the Russians. The point being, however, that we would certainly have had a frame or two of the descending missiles if that had been the attack vector. Did you see them? Me neither. Probably bombs.
Gin & Tonic
@Geoduck: Every party’s got a pooper.
Lyrebird
That is what I was hoping and praying the first time I saw the video. I hope they are far away and not recognizable in any way.
Ruckus
@dmsilev:
Bubble gum and some shoe polish will fix that……
Geoduck
@Carlo Graziani: Continuing my party-pooping, there’s already smoke blowing across the scene when the video starts, indicating there was possibly some sort of initial blast that attracted the attention of the camera-owner. But yeah, even if they weren’t expecting it, vacating the scene was probably a really good idea.
Ruckus
@Frankensteinbeck:
“Even when the truth would be better, they lie.”
They do go with their strength. (Notice that strength is singular…)
Redshift
Tweet from earlier today from astronaut Terry Virts:
Carlo Graziani
@Geoduck: In my opinion the smoke is coincidental. If you slow-walk the frames, the camera zoom on the exact spot of the double explosion is 1 second into the footage, while the explosions themselves occur 3 seconds in. That is not a coincidence. And there are definitely no rockets in any frame.
Carlo Graziani
.
Mallard Filmore
@Gin & Tonic:
WTF??? The Russian government lets tourists into a war zone? Using civilians as props for home propaganda. Maybe the videos showed local tourists instead?
Ken Cox
It appeared to me that there was a lot of smoke before the explosions. Where there’s smoke there’s usually a fire.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t have any experience with 152mm ammo, the Russian size, but I have worked around/carried live 127mm high explosive ammo. Some of the far more modern projectile/missile explosive devices are far more deadly than what I’ve seen but even that older stuff was not something you wanted to be on the receiving end of. Or close to if something went awry while you were carrying a high explosive shell, as you’d get about maybe a millisecond to consider what went wrong.
Carlo Graziani
@Mallard Filmore: The Russians were not regarding Crimea as “war zone” until last week. Technically they are still not calling their “Special Military Operation” a war at all, and Crimea is supposed to be Russians’ premiers R&R spot. So all of this is a major embarrassment to Putin’s gang, and likely to provoke some kind of reaction. But, well, fuck ’em. They’re on the back foot, and wondering what’s going to hit them next, and that’s not a bad thing.
Carlo Graziani
Also, I got distracted from noting Adam’s TWO excellent cultural references this evening. One is of course to Marvin, who is welcome to claim Russia at any time for Mars. But the Cheshire Cat’s grin? Adam you’re a Lewis Carroll fan! Vorpal Blades will be next!
Jinchi
@Mallard Filmore: I expect they didn’t consider Crimea a part of the war zone. They assumed Ukraine would only be capable of attacking recently occupied territory.
Kent
The Ukrainian sense of humor in the face of genocide is just breathtaking. The absolute best in my mind was at the beginning of the war when the Ukrainian ministry of revenue put out an actual news release reassuring people that farmers who capture Russian tanks would not owe taxes on their windfall gain. That was beyond genius.
Chetan Murthy
this is interesting
The UA journalist asks Leschenko about the upcoming show trial of an Azov POW, and Leschenko says he’ll watch videos of Russians getting blown up. In the ensuing discussion, it becomes clear that L. thinks that many Ukrainians will be watching such videos, having such strong feelings about Russians, for a long, long time. The thread is worth a read.
It reminded me of how I feel about the MAGAts, and about the people behind them — including the Russians who backed them.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Chetan Murthy: Many times since late February, I’ve had the uncomfortable dissonance between being someone who is generally anti-violence, anti-war, anti-people-being-murdered-for-any-reason…and having a disturbingly pleased response to seeing russian tanks being blown up or hearing about X number of russian invaders being killed in this or that episode. I don’t wish death on any human, but I think part of the issue here is that russians barely seem to qualify as humans anymore. (Yes, yes, I know someone will pop up to be like #notallrussians, but when we’re talking about the people in power there and the invading posses, then #yesallrussians.) Their cruelty and depravity and utter detachment from reality is impossible for my mind to reconcile with “human being.”
I say this as a Jew who lost (distant) relatives to the Nazis: I think the way I feel about russians right now is the way I would have felt about Nazis, had I been alive back then.
I don’t like feeling this way. I don’t like being glad when people are killed. But this is what Putin has wrought.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Hold on to the not liking part. It’s what makes you human, and them not.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: And then there is the crimes Russia committed against *us*. They declared war against *us*. They tried to destroy *our* Republic. And they’re still trying. Hell, they might succeed.
For this also, I hold grudges. I will not forgive Russia, or Russians, for a long time.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Carlo Graziani: I do my best. They seem to be doing their best to make that as difficult as possible.
dimmsdale
@Adam L Silverman: Understood, and thanks for that. Easy to see how the search could have been triggered by Trump holding an auction for America’s intel and soliciting bids from everyone you named….although, as you say, could be a dozen other things.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I know.
But we always need that humanity when a war ends. Sometimes it’s even needed to end a war. When it’s lost, wars go on forever, and their wounds don’t heal.
livewyre
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
This is one I’ve been chewing on from the beginning. There are so many historical wrinkles to it that are hard to smooth out into a position that doesn’t at least itch. But here’s what I have so far, to the extent that it helps.
What Putin and his officials seem to be aiming for is to portray the invasion of Ukraine, as well as the oppression of Russia, as a fundamentally ethnic conflict – your people versus mine, true versus fake, pure versus mixed. That way all he has to do is point at an enemy to destroy and that’s the only thing left for them to do. But like anything else he portrays, I don’t buy it.
The reason #notallrussians became a meme is that there’s an advantage – a military advantage, a publicity advantage – in making it seem like there’s no choice but for one or the other people, root and branch, to be eliminated. They play both sides; any conflict works. That’s the same reason the Nazi party went to such lengths to portray themselves as an entire people with a whole fictional origin story. Anything to make political conflict existential and stark.
So from where I sit, it’s imperative for us not to give into that narrative of one entire kind against another. If we let ourselves think that the whole place and everyone in it – or even everyone from it – are the source of the problem, then the only solution is to get out the knives and do some of our own. What would there be to lose at that point? Something vital, in my opinion, while we still have it.
Chetan Murthy
@livewyre:
This is all well and good, once we’ve defeated the enemy, defanged the threat to our Republic. But at the moment, the threat is live and perhaps they’re even winning. And I can see Ukrainians having the same feelings. I mean, if the Russians succeed in installing another Fascist at the head of our state, this country very well might be over. The carnage would be immense. And so *no*, I don’t think I can regard them as fellow humans, until their threat to my country, to my *family* is extinguished.
Kent
I am fervently anti-war which is why I desperately want to see Russia utterly crushed for choosing to start a genocidal war for no reason. I want Russia to be the new anti-war object lesson to every other country around the world who thinks about doing the same thing in this generation or the next.
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy:
There’s no question that we’ve already been wronged, and remain under threat. Pain is pain. I don’t expect everyone to take a philosophically rigorous standpoint on the fundamental rights of whoever while we’re under that kind of duress – some definitely more urgently than others.
In other words, as long as denying fellowship is on the “act” side of the act/essence divide and doesn’t extend to justifying said knives or other implements, then we probably broadly agree. I’m never quite clear on what “human” means in these discussions. But what has been inflicted has to be answered no matter what. We have to remain an institution of consensus, not coup.
livewyre
@Kent: This, but crosswise: I think they’ve already been crushed, and this is what’s oozing out. Oppression begat war, which begets oppression. What we need to cut off to stop them from invading will afterward have to be rebuilt to stop yet another despot from stomping down and squeezing out even more. Longer than one war, in other words. I hope we have the endurance.
bjacques
I just want Russia pushed back to pre-2014 borders, their coffers drained to pay for their 8-year war of choice, and all Ukrainian prisoners and deportees returned. What lessons Putin and his cronies and supporters draw from all this is up to them.
And if stuff blows up in Russian-occupied territories, I’ll just assume some housewife got a text from Donald Pleasance in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry…iFON!
Geminid
The Iranian-drones-to-Russia story pops up again, in a report by CNN’s Natasha Bertrand updated 0239 November 10:
Jinchi
In unrelated news CNN reports:
A large fire has broken out in the Russian port of Yeysk on the Sea of Azov, near the Russia-Ukraine border.
Scott
This jumped out at me. And it occurred to me this is the exact opposite of what Victor Orban and the neo-fascists are preaching.
nclurker
@Another Scott: hell,it seems to work pretty damn well for
trump.
Uncle Cosmo
It’s what they said about Bill Clinton (& likely every other Democrat since time immemorial): He never told the truth when a lie would do.
As always with those mooks, accusation -> projection -> confession.
Uncle Cosmo
Club Ded. Beach Blanket Bullseye. The last wild fling of a collapsing imperium (or so one can hope).
Chetan Murthy
@livewyre: I agree with everything you wrote, but I’ll just note that this sort of “we’ll need the endurance to help them rebuild afterwards” is something we never offer to the brown and black people we crush under our bootheels. They’re expected to make do with their own resources, and when they fail, we blame them for it. It’s a kind of white privilege, even in international relations.