Nevada is shaping up to be a key state this year, even with just 6 electoral votes.
So let’s talk about Nevada, starting with organized labor – their take on the lay of the land in Nevada and what they are doing about it.
Organized Labor Hits the Bricks for Nevada Democrats (from the folks at electoral-vote.com)
Nevada’s a tricky state for the Democrats this year. First of all, it’s fairly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Second, its economy is based primarily on tourism. That means that when gas prices soar, or when people tighten their belts in anticipation of a recession, or when food prices go up, Nevada is particularly hard-hit.
All of this has union leadership in the Silver State very nervous. They don’t see good things in the future if Republicans take over most or all political offices. However, they also know that when things get bad, voters tend to adopt a “throw the bums out” mentality. If so, that could cost the Democrats a U.S. Senate seat (the one Catherine Cortez Masto is running for reelection to) and up to three House seats (the ones that Dina Titus, Susie Lee, and Steven Horsford are trying to hold on to).
To that end, the largest union in Nevada—the Culinary Union—is taking action. It is subsidizing 100 union members so that they can take leave from their regular jobs and can spend the next several months canvassing. Their primary tasks are to: (1) make the case that inflation is not the Democrats’ fault, and (2) brag about the Inflation Reduction Act. They’ve knocked on 50,000 doors so far and hope to run that total to 100,000 by the end of August. They are particularly targeting Latino voters, who are the fastest-growing demographic in the state.
We do not know how much this will help, but it will certainly help some. And if the Democrats do lose the House this cycle, it won’t be for lack of ground game in Nevada (and Georgia, and North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, etc.) (Z)
Sneak Peek: I know I had said that the VAAC fundraising would be the last big fundraising effort with a targeted amount to raise this year, but I contacted Four Directions about Nevada, and they have found us a double-match if we can raise $25,000. They are starting to put boots on the ground and $75,000 will go a long way!
Are we up for it?
jnfr
If you put up a thermometer, I will definitely toss in. Love the matching funds, so good work there.
CaseyL
Not this week, unfortunately. Maybe next paycheck.
WaterGirl
Part of what we need to do in November is put up firewalls so we won’t have Republican crazies who will put up alternate slates of electors to override the will of the people. Nevada is one of those states and so is Arizona. More to come on that.
WaterGirl
This post isn’t just about fundraising, I am hoping we can talk about why Nevada matters. I added the Four Directions information in this post as an afterthought.
Redshift
Absolutely up for it. I hope there are people following Spanish-language outlets and forums to monitor and counter GOP disinformation. If what I read after 2020 is accurate, it seems like that has been a real blind spot that’s part of the stronger than expected Latino support for Republicans.
Baud
Good on labor. I would love to see them go to the mat everywhere for Biden/Dems.
japa21
@Redshift: And recognition that the Latino community is not one big monolithic entity.
Joy in FL
I am up for it.
Redshift
@japa21: Very good point.
suilebhan
Yes.
Ninedragonspot
I’m in.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Almost Retired has a connection to someone in AZ who has a connection to the union Unite Here voter turnout project. We hope to be talking with them this week about contacts with chapters in Phoenix and Las Vegas.
bk
I live here. If you want to get depressed, go see some of the comments on Masto’s (or Jackie Rosen’s) Facebook page. A bunch of mouthbreathers.
Steve in the ATL
@Baud: I love unions!!!!
Immanentize
@Steve in the ATL: they are your real payday. Embrace them!
eclare
@WaterGirl: As Lester said in The Wire, which I hope you are still watching, *all* the pieces matter.
I cannot be in for much, I am getting a new roof, but I could chip in.
WaterGirl
@Steve in the ATL: This is your chance to atone! :-) You know what you did.
H.E.Wolf
Yes, let’s. :-)
Another Scott
My understanding is that Democrats didn’t have much of a ground game in 2020 (compared to normal cycles) because we took COVID-19 seriously. I assume that we’ll be back to normal GOTV and that Democrats will be energized with COVID-19 beaten back a lot. We have to fight for every seat, but I really like our chances.
Cheers,
Scott.
bbleh
If we’re going to talk about Nevada, we need to pronounce it correctly, just sayin’.
BlueGuitarist
Lots of important elections in Nevada this year!
Democrats hold 3 US House seats, the US Senate seat up this year (Catherine Cortez-Masto), and the Governor’s office: all rated toss-up; plus elections for Attorney General and Secretary of State.
Democrats hold narrow majorities in the state assembly and state senate, with a few more pick up opportunities than seats to defend.
Nevada is the only state where women are a majority in both houses of the state legislature.
Some overlapping seats: NV Assembly-02 a good pick up opportunity, overlaps NV Senate-08 the most important seat to defend, and US House NV-03, the most vulnerable of the US House seats.
The unions are crucial for success.
Evap
Abso-fucking-lutely
eclare
@bbleh: What is the correct pronunciation? I honestly have no idea.
Reverse tool order
I will, let’s go for it
Another Scott
@eclare: “ad” like “add” – the math.
Cheers,
Scott.
eclare
@Another Scott: Thanks! I usually pronounce it Ne-vah-da. I will stop.
Will
Nevada is one of the few states I am worried about. I think we’ll get both in PA & AZ, maybe same in GA & WI.
One of my good friends moved there. His family is Latino. Last time we talked with them, they both had gone from staunch Democrats to debating voting Republican this year. It’s not a guarantee that they will, it just seemed like they were open to it.
It wasn’t like they were rah rah or even defending Republicans. They just seemed tired and for whatever reason they’ve come to blame the Democrats for that. I don’t live in Nevada so I don’t know what the dynamic of that region whereas I am super confident about the local politics of Pennsylvania. People say any dip in tourism hurts the state hard, but neither is in tourism but maybe it could be from knowing people in their circle that are? I’ve been genuinely confused by this reversal in politics.
gene108
@Redshift:
Democrats need to figure out their Hispanic outreach in a much more targeted fashion. This is what Republicans started doing after 2016.
I’m not sure how much of Republicans focus on and ability to reach Tejanos in Texas, for example, comes from what they learned from Cambridge Analytica during the 2016 election, when CA worked for the Trump campaign, about data mining social media posts to figure out how to micro target prospective voters.
Another Scott
@eclare: I have to stop a beat and think about it when I say the word. :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
persistentillusion
@Another Scott: I might add also like the “a” in Chicago if correctly pronounced.
Eyeroller
The Spanish pronunciation would be more like Ne VAH dah so I suppose the Anglo version Ne VA da is considered more correct. It means “snowy mountains.”
Baud
Just don’t call it Nevadx. Latinos hate that.
Geminid
@gene108: One thing that hurt Democrats in 2020 is that the Biden campaign only started raising big bucks in August. They knew about Republican micro-targeting of Spanish speaking communities but had to get in the game late and play catch up. Republican social media efforts with these communities had started in fall of 2019. There should be a more level playing field this cycle and the next.
Suzanne
I am at a client dinner and I would much rather be eating a rice bowl in my PJs by myself.
wonkie
I have written five hundred GOTV letters to NV addresses for Vote Forward. So that’s another option for helping out.
Also if you live in Nevada, write a letter to the editor of the local paper. People who read the paper will read the letter. It gives you a way to talk to people that you don’t know.
lowtechcyclist
Absofuckinglutely.
Betty
@gene108: Maria Hinojosa is a great resource on Latino voters. Very astute lady.
dc
Yes, put up a thermometer!
la caterina
I’m in for Nevada fundraising. Thanks Watergirl!
Alice
I’ll chip in!
J R in WV
We have been monthly contributors to Four Directions since long many years ago. They do great work in AZ, where we have a second home we haven’t used in years now.
I don’t know how to get that monthly Act Blue event directed to B-J fund raising, if anyone has an easy way let me know.
Geminid
Ballotpedia’s article on this years Nevada Senate race had an interesting fact: half of Nevada’s currently registered voters were not on the voting rolls when Catherine Cortez-Masto won her seat in 2016. A reflection of the state’s population turnover.
WaterGirl
@J R in WV: I can ask them to change it to Nevada if you want.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: wow. Is that considered an advantage or disadvantage for us in November?
WaterGirl
@la caterina: great!
dnfree
I am still doing monthly but would toss in some more.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue team
Yes I’ll chip in
Jesse
I’d chip in. Let’s do it!
rockstar
Let’s do this! You rock Watergirl!!!
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I guess all the new voters are a challenge for both parties, and an advantage for the one with a better voter registrationoperation. The Ballotpedia author said they made predicting outcomes tougher. They also said it might be a factor in how close elections tend to be. Jackie Rosen won her election by 5 points, but Catherine Cortez-Masto won her first election in 2016 by ~2.5%. Clinton and Biden also carried the state by ~2.5%.
eachother
I’ll contribute too.
Pronunciation of Nevada suggests where the pronouncer may be from. East or west.
The money is neutral on the matter.
Great idea WaterGirl. Thank you.