Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

The revolution will be supervised.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

Come on, man.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

It’s time for the GOP to dust off that post-2012 autopsy, completely ignore it, and light the party on fire again.

Infrastructure week. at last.

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

I really should read my own blog.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

Republicans do not pay their debts.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

After roe, women are no longer free.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

You are here: Home / Politics / Biden Administration in Action / Tuesday Morning Open Thread: C.R.E.A.M.

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: C.R.E.A.M.

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170Comments

  3. 3.

    Geminid

    Inflation’s just a bully! Joe Manchin punched inflation in the nose and it ran away crying.

  4. 4.

    Ken

    In fairness to the Republicans, they’ve all had recessions during their terms, almost — or in TFG’s case, more than — offsetting the modest job growth in the rest of their term. Just inexplicably bad luck.

  6. 6.

    Ken

    @Baud: Did they adopt the Fox framing?  “With prices falling, many mom-and-pop international oil companies are seeing their revenues decrease”, etc.

  8. 8.

    Kropacetic

    @Ken: All news is bad news is Joe Biden.  We’ll let you know how how once it happens.

    This policy established after Beta implementations of predictive bad news under Obama failed.

     

    @evap: Cash Rules Everything Around Me

  10. 10.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @evap:

    I believe it’s Cash Rules Everything Around Me.

    Gas was 3.14/gallon at my neighborhood Costco yesterday.

  12. 12.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    @evap: “Cash Rules Everything Around Me”, I think. (I get it; I get twitchy around undefined acronyms and abbreviations. Maybe it’s because of my legal translation work in which I often get acronyms or abbreviations that make no sense without context that the locals got in primary school and I didn’t.)

  13. 13.

    Baud

    @evap:

    CREAM is usually a tag for when the elite rich do something that only the elite rich can get away with.  AL is using it here ironically.

  16. 16.

    Ken

    @Baud: No, they simply cautioned that the good times might not last.

    “And for the five-year-olds in our audience, a warning: Things change!”

  17. 17.

    p.a.

    The good economic news continues, raising the question of who we should thank for apparently locking the Fed Reserve members in a salt mine?

  18. 18.

    Ruckus

    I do like everything about Joe. I’ve been around on this rock for a few years and have been following politics for the vast majority of that time and while many don’t see to see him as the popular president, like say Kennedy, or even the man Joe was VP for, he sure has gotten shit done. In the primary I voted for Harris, and I’m very glad Joe asked her to be VP but he has surprised me. With his knowledge of how to get stuff done in congress – never an easy thing to do, he has managed to be, and I’m saying this knowing how it sounds, the best president of my life. And please take this the way it’s meant, Obama was very good and had some really crappy roadblocks thrown at him and he still managed to be extremely good but Joe seems to get the times and the overall concept of the job extremely well.

    Now my one small complaint. Gas is not $3.49 here in SoCal. The cheapest station near me is $4.59/gal. Cash. Some stations are a tad more, around $5.39. So, over $1 to almost $2 /gal higher.

  21. 21.

    WaterGirl

    @evap: You don’t need to write things down – Anne Laurie did it for you!

    She put together the Balloon Juice lexicon years ago.  You can find it in the white menu bar at the top.

  24. 24.

    kindness

    Over the weekend I was among a mixed crowd and some of the ‘conservatives’ started carping about the price of gas because I guess it’s still on Fox’s rotation.  When they were reminded that the price had gone down, they didn’t deny it.  Truth isn’t important to them, just tribe.

  25. 25.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: Not to be outdone,  Ted “Fat Wolverine” Cruz is going to make an ad recreating the volleyball scene

  27. 27.

    Joe Falco

    @kindness:

    Exactly although I doubt they’ll be in such a rush to slap those “I Did That!” Biden stickers on gas pumps if prices are below their record highs. They know it doesn’t serve their cause if people are seeing any improvement in their lives that can be tied back to Biden.

  28. 28.

    C Stars

    @Ruckus: i feel you. I’m going to fill our tank at Costco this morning here in Nor Cal and it is, ah….. extremely not going to be under $4/gal.

     

    Yeah I like Biden too. I never stopped liking him, even a couple of months ago when the popular thing was to hate him. I like that he just kinda keeps his head down and does the job. And really does the job.

  29. 29.

    Kropacetic

    @Joe Falco: Exactly although I doubt they’ll be in such a rush to slap those “I Did That!” Biden stickers on gas pumps if prices are below their record highs. They know it doesn’t serve their cause if people are seeing any improvement in their lives that can be tied back to Biden.

    I was thinkin of picking some up in case gas hits $2.50, but that would mean having to set foot inside the Donald Trump store. Also, too, why is there such a thing as a Donald Trump store?

    I remember once upon a time some young children sang about the first black  President for black history month.  “Cult like” they called it…

  30. 30.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @C Stars:

    I like that he just kinda keeps his head down and does the job. And really does the job.

    Obama used to tell his staff to turn off cable TV. Ignoring the Very On-Line seems to be Joe’s superpower.

  31. 31.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: This morning’s Politico Playbook has an item on Florida’s Democratic Governor primary. It links to a couple of state newspaper articles about Crist and Fried, and also to one about DeSantis’ formidable state campaign organization.

    DeSantis is certainly confident, and his New Mexico, Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania rallies with Republican candidates show he has an eye on an office higher than Governor. I wonder if this will hurt him this fall. He clearly wants to be a part-time Governor for just two years, and this could be a good line of attack for the Democrat opposing him.

    Kristi Noehm faces a similar dynamic in South Dakota. Her winning margin in 2018 was fairly small, Democrats have a good candidate, and they will go all out to beat her this fall.

  33. 33.

    Kropacetic

    @Joe Falco: The same reason there are still confederate memorabilia stores.

    So…branding exercise for a northern audience? Viral marketing campaign for a civil war sequel?

  34. 34.

    Baud

    Speaking of Dark Brandon, I mentioned this in the late night thread, but the Today show teased $10K in student debt relief soon.  I assume they got that story from an insider who was previewing what was likely to happen.

  35. 35.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: I’ve seen it on twitter the last couple days, interesting that it’s moved up the food chain to the Today Show. I don’t watch them but I think those network morning shows still have big audiences.

  36. 36.

    James E Powell

    @C Stars:

    I paid $5.09 yesterday in sunny Southern California. That seems like a “normal” summer price. The truth is I drive a Prius & I don’t pay close attention to the price of gas.

  37. 37.

    Gin & Tonic

    A fascinating thread here:

    In 1807, Omar ibn Said, a Muslim scholar, was stolen from Senegal & sold into slavery in America. He left behind an autobiography written in Arabic.⁰To mark the International Day for the Remembrance of the Slave Trade & its Abolition, a thread on the remarkable story of Omar… pic.twitter.com/zDPGtBPmU2— Bayt Al Fann (@BaytAlFann) August 23, 2022

    [May not be legal to read in Florida]

  38. 38.

    Steeplejack

    @kindness:

    My RWNJ brother, who has been ranting about Biden’s high gas prices all along, had this reaction when I pointed out to him how much they have been dropping: Well, they haven’t gone all the way back down [to where?], so we’re still half screwed instead of screwed.

    This coming from a guy who is tooling around the country in his diesel Ford pickup with camper back at 11 mpg. 🙄

  39. 39.

    C Stars

    @James E Powell: I drive a Prius too, and we walk/bike to school/work every day, so gas prices aren’t generally a big chunk of our family budget (although now we have to drive our youngest star to soccer in another city 3x a week which is annoying). But when I saw people posting about $3.75 or whatnot it took my breath away. Hasn’t been that price in CA for a long time.

     

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yep, people always said Obama was playing the long game but it seems Biden has some rather effective long game himself.

  41. 41.

    Scout211

    @Baud: That has been up on the CNN front page for a couple of days. Link.

    It sounded like one of those policies that they first leak out (on purpose) to see how people react first.

     

    CNN)White House officials have been weighing — and leaning toward — the cancellation of up to $10,000 in student loan debt per borrower tied to an income threshold, CNN has learned.

    According to multiple sources familiar with the discussions, the plan is designed to offer the forgiveness to individuals who earn less than $125,000 per year.

    In addition to that baseline of student loan debt forgiveness for individuals who fall under a certain income level, administration officials have also recently discussed the possibility of additional forgiveness for specific subsets of the population, according to sources familiar with internal discussions in the administration.

    The announcement could come as early as Wednesday, but it is not clear that a final decision on the details of the announcement — as well as the timing — has been made, and there could always be eleventh hour changes. The White House is also expected to address in the coming days whether to extend again the current pause on federal student loan payments, which is set to expire on August 31.

  42. 42.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, …

    So the Trump super pac, which is not permitted to coordinate directly with Trump when he’s a candidate, is selling golf games and photo opportunities with him personally and hosting a dinner at one of the facilities owned by his private business. But … it’s independent. https://t.co/h89gYruCCG

    — southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) August 23, 2022

    $100,000 per person candlelight dinner.

    Must be nice.

    I think everyone should have a Schrödinger SuperPAC like TFG. Dinner with him, at a place he “owns”, money to him, but of course there’s no collusion coordination.

    (groucho-roll-eyes.gif)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  44. 44.

    CaseyL

    This is exactly what the GOP fought against: using government to make peoples’ lives better.  I hope the President and the Democratic Party know how to get the word out all over the place. It’s a short, clear message: The GOP makes your lives worse.  Democrats make your lives better.

    I am extremely proud of President Biden, who plays the long game like no one’s business.  I never saw a deal with Manchin happening, and this one popped up out of the blue.

  45. 45.

    Baud

    @Scout211: Thanks.  Although I’m usually the last to hear of such things, I haven’t yet heard any kind of outcry that the plan is worthless because it doesn’t go far enough (like I have in the past).

  46. 46.

    Jeffro

    OT but I thought I’d ask: does anyone have any recommendations on

    • easy to moderate hikes and good sightseeing in Grand Teton National Park
    • same for Craters of the Moon National Monument

    Mrs Fro and I will be out there soon for a conference and have a fair amount of time off to go do some exploring.  I’m looking at the NPS sites for these two right now and I’m leaning towards the Aspen Ridge – Boulder Ridge hike for Grand Teton.

    Thanks in advance!  =)

  47. 47.

    Baud

    @C Stars:

    IMHO there’s no such thing as a short game that has a reasonable chance at being successful.  It’s like having a retirement plan that consists of winning the lottery. YMMV.

  48. 48.

    Geminid

    @Baud: You’ll hear the outcry, at least if you want to delve into Twitter. There already is a spate of agitation about how bad means-testing is. This is being made as a general argument, but means-testing student debt cancellation is the target.

  50. 50.

    Baud

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    I was curious enough to look it up.

    From July 6.

    Never count out “Today” in the morning show wars.

    The venerable NBC A.M. franchise has for weeks been losing a critical ratings category to its main rival, ABC’s “Good Morning America.” The ABC show has long been the most-watched broadcast TV morning-news program in the nation, while “Today” typically dominates among the viewers advertisers want most — people between 25 and 54. But for more than two months, that hasn’t been the case; “GMA” has taken the lead in both overall viewership and the ad demo.

    Last week put the brakes on ABC’s progress. According to Nielsen, “Today” won more viewers between 25 and 54 than its ABC competitor, albeit during a stretch leading into the long holiday weekend when all three broadcast networks “retitled” their Friday programs so what were presumably lower-than-usual audience levels wouldn’t be lumped in with the rest of the week’s crowd.

    For the four days ending on June 30, “Today” lured an average of 656,000 viewers between 25 and 54, according to Nielsen, compared with 625,000 for “GMA” and 458,000 for “CBS Mornings.” Meanwhile, “GMA” attracted an overall audience of nearly 2.89 million, compared with nearly 2.65 million for “Today” and 2.25 million for CBS.

  51. 51.

    wenchacha

    @Ruckus: My late dad didn’t think much of old Joe, but I think he would be impressed by his presidency, so far. Yeah, Joe can ramble, and he’s made some mistakes in his long political career. Nevertheless, he has held things together, and he knows how DC works.

    I’m with Joe, and I bet my dear dad would be, too.

  52. 52.

    Scout211

    Save America PAC spent $650,000 for portraits of Trump and Melania  for the Smithsonian.  Link.

    If I spend my hard-earned dollars to help Trump fight the liberals who are obviously railroading him and to help him get re-elected, I sure would love that money to be spent on portraits at the Smithsonian. Sure. 🙄

    Former president Donald Trump’s leadership PAC gave $650,000 to the Smithsonian Institution to pay for portraits of himself and former first lady Melania Trump, financial documents show.
    Save America paid the money to the museum on July 14, according to a filingSaturday night with the Federal Election Commission.

  54. 54.

    Another Scott

    @Jeffro: Grand Teton is amazing.  We visited after a few days in Yellowstone (also amazing).

    We did several day hikes in Grand Teton. My recollection is:

    One of the hikes to Taggart Lake, and one of the hikes to Aspen-Boulder Ridge were very good. There are many flat trails in the valley (good places to see moose and such), and many very rocky ones in the mountains, so there’s variety for everyone.

    There’s a hike that’s near the Middle Teton (the one with the black vertical scar) that was interesting. There was a line of clouds moving in while we were maybe 1/2 way along and we started hearing thunder **Very Close**. We turned around and got off the mountain, quickly quickly.

    Be prepared for rapid weather changes on the mountains.

    Have fun!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  55. 55.

    Baud

    @Geminid:

    Supposedly, the means testing would start at $125,000.  Those people aren’t going to garner a lot of sympathy.  A harder question will be how burdensome it’ll be for people below that amount to prove their eligibility.  That could reduce the popularity of the forgiveness, if it’s not easy to access.

  56. 56.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: that’s actually smaller than I thought it would be, but then I’m just a few weeks away from aging out of that Coveted Demo….

  57. 57.

    JML

    @CaseyL: I’m happy to have Biden play the long game in terms of legislation and policy, but he better not make the mistake Obama did and assume that he could win the PR war just by accomplishing things and presuming he and the Democrats would get the credit for it. Hoping Biden will do better on that one (results so far are mixed?)

    I loved a great many things about Obama, but he missed badly on the “how to take a victory lap” part of politics, and it cost us all dearly.

  59. 59.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid:

    You probably already know this, but the real problem with means testing is the hoops people have to jump through to prove they’re eligible. And of course the people who most need the help are the ones who have the most problems with the paperwork.

    Meanwhile the savings are usually small. It’s virtue signaling, hey we’re being thrifty, but it tends to backfire.

  60. 60.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: at what age do I have to start watching Blue Bloods? is it still on? can I get it on the CBS internet?

  61. 61.

    Dan B

    @Gin & Tonic: And an opera!  I wonder how many thousands of slaves were literate when they arrived in America?  It would be challenging to get an accurate accounting of a people who were erased.

  64. 64.

    James E Powell

    @Scout211:

    I’d first extend the pause in payments till after the New Year; give people plenty of time to adjust their monthly budgets.

    Then I’d announce the $10,000 forgiveness after Labor Day, when voters are paying closer attention.

    And would it be too crass to do something like George Bush the Lesser did with the tax cuts? Mail a letter with a photo of Smiling Joe saying “President Joe took care of your tab.”

  65. 65.

    Another Scott

    @lowtechcyclist: I’m shocked, shocked that Larry Summers is wrong about federal student loans.

    There is no analogy with bank bailouts. Student loans are grants that cost the government money. The bank bailouts were loans at premium interest in which the government turned a profit.

    — Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) August 23, 2022

    The govt turned a larger profit on student loans than it did on its TARP programs during the Obama admin. Federal earnings from student loans were an issue in the 2016 campaign, with both candidates denouncing the windfall. (The pandemic pause has the program losing money now.) https://t.co/jNfxaCgfrF

    — southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) August 23, 2022

    Was Summers ever right about any important public policy??

    (groucho-roll-eyes.gif)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  66. 66.

    stacib

    I’m on the southside of Chicago.  Unfortunately, there are still lots of stations gouging with gas at $5.00+.  To those folks, they can’t “see” the difference since the stations they use are still using them, so you know who they blame – Biden.  SMH

  67. 67.

    UncleEbeneezer

    Many on this website are more concerned w/ signaling something about their identity and deep moral righteousness than they are w/ attempting to persuade people of their POV. This renders quite a few intra-left debates not only useless, but actually counter-productive

    We should welcome intra-left debate, but if the functional purpose of the “debate” is to posture/dunk/signal-your-identity, then the “debate” will only serve to more deeply entrench your interlocutor’s views, as well as your own. The “debate” might even make you both more radical

    This is what I’ve seen with student loans. Not a lot of people seem to have been persuaded one way or another. Rather, potential allies–on this or any other issue–get alienated.

    We’ve also spent more time debating the slogan “Abolish the Police” than we have any concrete details or broader vision of reform. The debate is more about showing the world what we, as individuals, hold righteously in our hearts than it is about the change we say we care about

  69. 69.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: This is true generally with social assistance programs. I’m not sure how applicable the principle is to student debt. It would certainly be simpler to knock off $50,000 off of every student loan debt, as Senator Warren and others have suggested. This can be questioned, though on grounds of equity and politics.

    After the discussion I’ve seen here I’m inclined to think a better long term solution would be to make student loans dischargeable in bankruptcy. It would be great if some Senator with expertise in bankruptcy law would write such a bill!

  70. 70.

    Gayle D

    To those folks, they can’t “see” the difference since the stations they use are still using them, so you know who they blame – Biden.

  72. 72.

    Another Scott

    Things are going great for Team T[***]p. Two of his lawyers just got their pro hac vice admission motions denied because they didn’t file them right. (Pro hac vice motions are seeking permission to practice in a court where you aren’t admitted.) pic.twitter.com/5GLZRS56e1

    — Chris “Subscribe to Law Dork!” Geidner (@chrisgeidner) August 23, 2022

    Maybe Lionel Hutz is available, (if he’s not on TFG’s team already).

    (via nycsouthpaw)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  73. 73.

    Jeffro

    @Another Scott: thanks AS!  Looks like Aspen-Boulder Ridge it is!

    this Craters of the Moon is a ‘dark sky’ park or area, so we are planning on being there late into the evening…here in central VA, I can faintly see the Milky Way on some clear summer evenings, but I want to really SEE it while we’re out west.  Fingers crossed!

  76. 76.

    Joe Falco

    @James E Powell:

    And would it be too crass to do something like George Bush the Lesser did with the tax cuts? Mail a letter with a photo of Smiling Joe saying “President Joe took care of your tab.”

    I can think of a more recent example when those first stimulus checks went out during Trump. I remember letters being sent out to homes with Trump crowing about these checks were made possible because of him. So yeah, it’s probably a tad crass. Does it make an effective political messaging tool? YMMV.

  77. 77.

    sab

    @Another Scott: My brother is a RWNJ who works in finance, so we rarely agree on anything, except Larry Summers. We both think Summers is an idiot savant who is very good with numbers but hopelessly inept on practical application of that apptitude.

    Also too for me he’s an utter misogynistwho writes off half the human raise as unintelligent. So he himself thinks he’s better at this stuff than Janet Yellen.

  79. 79.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Rep. Conor Lamb and others have proposed a law granting a $10,000 credit to anyone to pay down student debt or apply to new educational expenses. I like the principle  on grounds of equity and politics.

    I understand that Rep. Swallwell has worked up some good legislation in this area. Proposals for refinancing loans at low interest seem good also, as well as forgiveness of interest.

  80. 80.

    Another Scott

    @Geminid: I’m not a fan of the bankruptcy route.

    Too many students were defrauded by the college finance system and were told and felt that they had to take on unsustainable debt to get an education and build a future.  17-18 year olds (and their frazzled parents) are not in a position to understand the ramifications, especially in a time of huge increases in tuition and fees.

    Generational fairness means that the country needs to cut their debt and not make them go through the stigma of bankruptcy.

    Yes, there’s a compelling argument that 40+ years of the economic growth in the US economy going to the top 1% rather than to wages means that everyone else (especially those in the bottom 50%) needs help.  But if we have to address many problems before we can address any problem then nothing will ever get done.

    Getting the politics right matters as much as the dollars, because getting it right means that more can be done in the future.  How to do that is the job of people like Team D in Congress and not just Biden.  We need a bigger Team to get more done.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  82. 82.

    Steeplejack

    @Steeplejack:

    To be fair to my RWNJ brother, I spent a very pleasant five days in Rehoboth Beach recently with him and the Sighthound Hall mob. We (mostly) avoided touchy subjects, and he was on his best behavior. It was a bittersweet reminder of the person he could be if he hadn’t radicalized himself over the last 20(?) years.

    I don’t think he is a Trumper, but he is a major gun nut and consumes all the far right media. “I don’t agree with Ben Shapiro about everything, but he has some good ideas.” ’Nuff said. The big things on his Facebook feed are that semi-senile Joe Biden is tanking the economy and that Nancy Pelosi—well, he’s in the “show us on the doll where the bad lady hurt you” zone. I think he has a problem with powerful women in general.

    Despite his gun-nuttiness, he is somewhat skeptical of the police. He majored in criminal justice in college and was a policeman in a middle-sized Midwest city for a few years in the ’70s before going into the Navy. He said that in his rookie police “class” of 12 people most had bachelor’s degrees and one or two had master’s degrees. Compare that to today. And he described a few incidents where he and his fellow officers were able to defuse a dangerous situation without blasting away at everything in sight.

    End of anecdata.

  83. 83.

    Baud

    @rikyrah: Could be that simple.  They could also make it complicated if they wanted to.  They’ll have to figure out which years of income qualify, at a minimum.

  85. 85.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: In my Twitter bubble, positions on student loans have hardened to such an extent that canceling them might actually backfire with one faction of the party, netting the long-suffering Biden admin no tangible gain. The issue as a cautionary tale on the perils of being Very Online. I have no idea how it will play out in the real world.

  86. 86.

    Baud

    @Betty Cracker:

    canceling them might actually backfire with one faction of the party,

    I think that’s certainly true when it comes to full cancelation.  Or are you saying that any amount of debt relief will backfire?

  87. 87.

    Old School

    Saw an AARP commercial crediting themselves for decreasing prescription costs for seniors.

    No mention of the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats, or Republicans.

    It was AARP that got it done!

  88. 88.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Another Scott: The positive side of allowing bankruptcy is that lenders will have to assume risk and won’t grant loans so easily. It’s a longer term solution.

    I’m fine with granting some relief for most student loan debtors and total relief for some. But we’ll have to do that every few years. And I don’t think bankruptcy is that stigmatizing. It’s a choice, just like borrowing money for college is.

  89. 89.

    Betty Cracker

    @Baud: We’ll see, but I think it’s possible the pro-cancelation side will consider it insultingly inadequate and the anti-cancelation faction will deride it as a waste of resources that should go elsewhere. Reasonable people can disagree on debt cancelation policy, of course, but I’m talking about people who stopped arguing policy in good faith a long time ago — at this point, seeing the enemy faction lose is more important than policy outcomes.

  91. 91.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I think there are a lot of ways to address student debt short of full cancellation. I would’ve started with interest rates. “We’re going to refinance student debt, just like you do with your mortgage”. Apparently the process and paperwork for public service relief is ridiculously complicated, and a lot of eligible people don’t even know about it.

  93. 93.

    Shalimar

    @Geminid: It should matter that DeSantis is really only running for a 2 year term, all of which he will spend running for president.  But it didn’t matter 6 years ago that Rubio clearly hated being a senator and had promised he wouldn’t run again up until the last day for filing.  He still won by more than any Republican statewide candidate has in Florida in the last decade.

  94. 94.

    Baud

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Apparently the process and paperwork for public service relief is ridiculously complicated, and a lot of eligible people don’t even know about it.

    From what I understand, that’s an area that Biden’s people have reformed, although I don’t know the details.

  95. 95.

    Steeplejack

    @Geminid:

    I keep meaning to ask you about your current thoughts on New York Mayor Eric Adams. I seem to remember that you were somewhat positive, or at least “Let’s ignore the media scrum and give him a chance,” when he was elected. I haven’t followed things closely, so I was wondering if you have and, if so, what’s your take?

  96. 96.

    Joe Falco

    @Geminid:

    I’m fine with granting some relief for most student loan debtors and total relief for some. But we’ll have to do that every few years. And I don’t think bankruptcy is that stigmatizing. It’s a choice, just like borrowing money for college is.

    Ideally, we would have legislation that tries to solve the problem of both college debt and the affordability of college. Republicans are determined to make sure relief for either is not possible via legislation so I’m all for aggressive executive action to do what can be done now while Democrats try to make the gains in Congress to make such legislation being passed possible. It’s smart politics.

  97. 97.

    Geminid

    @Betty Cracker: There certainly is a lot of anti-cancellation sentiment among the Democrats I follow on twitter. But none of them are going to vote Republican if Biden adopts Senator Warren’s plan, even though they might be pissed. But there are a lot of Independents  who vote Democratic most of the time now, and they make the difference in many purple states and districts. They’re the ones I worry when I look at this issue in political terms.

    I think that for the cancellation sceptics you describe, the issue is partly tribal. They see the most vocal advocates of across the board forgiveness as Sanders and Warren people. “And if those rascals are for it, we’re agin it!”

  98. 98.

    Scout211

    In a May letter, posted on John Solomon’s **spit!** website, the National Archives notified Trump’s legal team that they would be contacting the intelligence community to assess the damage.  I won’t read or link to Solomon, but this is the CNN version of the story.

    Bold added.

    (CNN)The National Archives told former President Donald Trump’s legal team in May that it was sharing hundreds of pages of classified material it had retrieved in January with the intelligence community so that an assessment could be done on potential damage from how the classified documents had been handled, according to a newly released letter.

    More than 100 documents classified documents, comprising more than 700 pages, were retrieved by the Archives from Mar-a-Lago in an initial batch of 15 boxes that were transported in January, according to the letter released Monday night.

    The documents included materials marked as Sensitive Compartmented Information, meaning they must be viewed in secure government facility, and Special Access Program, a classification that significantly limits who can access the information, the Archives said.

  99. 99.

    Betty Cracker

    @Gin & Tonic: Good point. There are probably online pedant factions rhetorically clubbing each other over such questions in the darker corners of the internet right now!

  101. 101.

    Geminid

    @Shalimar: DeSantis’s ambitions should matter, and I think they will matter. The question is, how much? Maybe not a lot. But Rubio’s big victory in 2016 is an outlier for recent statewide Florida elections. In most of them a one point swing would have changed the result.

  102. 102.

    Baud

    @Geminid:

    While I don’t believe full cancelation is on table, I’m of the belief that it would cost us more votes than it gets us.

    We’ll see how the partial cancelation plays out, assuming that’s where they’re headed.

  103. 103.

    Geminid

    @Steeplejack: Oh, I still am not as down on Adams as many people here. But while he started out well in polling among city residents, they now disapprove of his job performance by a large majority. I think those are some pretty aware people, so I’d say Adams has not delivered.

  104. 104.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Geminid:

    they now disapprove of his job performance by a large majority. I think those are pretty aware people, so I’d say Adams has not delivered.

    People are generally cranky these days. I’m just listening to the latest O’Bros podcast, and Favreau is doing one of his tours of regional focus groups in swing states for an upcoming series (The Wilderness), and he interviewed a group of African-American Biden voters  in Georgia. They’re disappointed in Biden, which I get, but he said they’re also kind of tepid on Warnock, which I do not get. They’re more enthusiastic about Stacey Abrams

    ETA: And on general crankitude: They said the two most vulnerable incumbent Dem Senators are Hassan and Cortez-Masto, both at 44% approval

  105. 105.

    Booger

    @Jeffro: Personal weird/bad experience–there’s a lava tube tunnel at COTM, which is very eerie and impressive. However, when I walked into the cool darkness from the very hot and bright summer outside, I experienced vertigo and lost my balance. Nothing quite exciting as falling over in a tunnel made of jagged volcanic glass. Seemed like forever, and the hand I fell on has never quite been the same. YMMV.

  106. 106.

    Betty Cracker

    @Geminid: I’ll also note Rubio’s 2016 opponent was a pretty weak candidate — IIRC, former Republican, S. FL backbencher with little statewide recognition, went through a nasty primary fight with Alan Grayson that poisoned the well, easy to paint as a rich dude dilettante, etc. I think Demings has a much better chance, but it’s still an uphill climb, despite Rubio being an empty suit.

  110. 110.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Betty Cracker: Yup, I think that’s basically what Semrau is getting at in her thread.  The toxicity of too much time online (regardless of where one stands on an issue) can really mess shit up.

  111. 111.

    Geminid

    @Baud: One nice thing about the recurring debate about student loan debt is that there is more data developed about which people have the debt, in economic and other demographic terms. I think that is important when considering the various policy alternatives.

    This debate can be pretty heated, and I get caught up myself. As I’ve said, I’m in favor of some relief for many, and total relief for some. But when I see some of the arguments made by the advocates of across the board relief, I find myself thinking, “you know, maybe debtor’s prisons weren’t such a bad idea after all!” I would use mean testing of course..

  112. 112.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @Old School: I saw that, too. AARP can leap tall buildings in a single bound!

    …and they can go fuck themselves. They’re just insurance scammers at this point.

  113. 113.

    Kent

    Since it is an open thread, my 11th grade daughter came back from the first day back to school yesterday.

    “Dad, everyone in this whole damn school is an ass.”

    “Really?   EVERYONE?  That’s hard to believe.  What about your friends?”

    “No, everyone is an ass.  We have dumbasses, jackasses, and smartasses.  But they are all asses.”

    “What kind of ass are you?”

    “Smartass of course”

    “OK then…”

  116. 116.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Kent:

    “No, everyone is an ass.  We have dumbasses, jackasses, and smartasses.  But they are all asses.”

    “What kind of ass are you?”

    “Smartass of course”

    Brava! Does your daughter have an Act Blue page?

  117. 117.

    Baud

    @Geminid:

    Yeah, there are glimpses of online stuff that make me sympathetic to the right wing argument that “the libs made evil.”

    I’ve learned to become more zen, and to reduce the size of my info bubble.

  119. 119.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud: The anti-Dan Goldman (top staff-lawyer for the first impeachment) campaign in NYC is one of those things that make me think I should just give up on politics, but there’s a reason the phrase is “political junkie”

    That same day, Niou and Jones held a joint press conference outside City Hall alongside staffers who held up signs that read “NYC Is Not for Sale” and “Anyone but Goldman.”

  120. 120.

    trnc

    So today I learned something. I thought W had a net job loss after the recession and DT had a slight net gain even after covid, which made me think that combining the 2 of them skewed DT’s numbers down. Welp, I was wrong on all counts, so combining actually skewed W’s numbers down.

    Everyone here knows DT was a monumental fuckup (and probably knew about their respective jobs numbers), but DAAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMNNNNNNNN. Gotta work pretty hard to underperform W.

  121. 121.

    Gravenstone

    @Old School: Well, AARP could probably produce the receipts for the odd Senator or three that they’ve managed to purchase on lay away over the years. So yeah, they can take a smidgeon of credit.

  122. 122.

    Kent

    @Betty Cracker:@Baud: In my Twitter bubble, positions on student loans have hardened to such an extent that canceling them might actually backfire with one faction of the party, netting the long-suffering Biden admin no tangible gain. The issue as a cautionary tale on the perils of being Very Online. I have no idea how it will play out in the real world.

    We are talking about the 2024 election and it will be about whatever the GOP media says it is about.  Inflation, gangs of rapists at the border, critical race theory, ANTIFA mobs burning the cities, death panels, swift boats, etc. etc.  Whatever Biden does with respect to student loans will make no difference in the grand scheme of things unless the GOP decides to run on student loan forgiveness and FOX demagogues it 24/7.  In which case it will matter regardless of what Biden does or doesn’t do.

    Ultimately you just have to do the right thing.  You can’t forever live in a defensive crouch, worried about being hit by the GOP.  That is a recipe for sure losing.

  125. 125.

    Baud

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Those polling numbers reinforce my support for ranked choice voting. Time and again you see people winning primaries in a crowded field with a low plurality of the vote. I hate that outcome.

  127. 127.

    Geminid

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: And then the fat will be in the internet fire!

    I actually look forward to this stuff. I don’t think I let internal battles distract me from external ones, but I’m interested in them. I first found this site when I looked up an Adam Silverman post concerning Justice Democrats.

  128. 128.

    Gravenstone

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: They’re more enthusiastic about Stacey Abrams

    To be fair, Abrams isn’t currently in office, so their inevitable disappointment in her would merely be speculative at this point in time. But it will come, should she win. Some folks are never happy with the realities of life and politics.

  130. 130.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Kent:

    Ultimately you just have to do the right thing.

    Couldn’t agree more.

    As long as I get to decide what the right thing is.

    @Gravenstone: As a great believer in Normie politics, I get that Normies are going to blame the POTUS, whoever it is, for things they have little or nothing to do with (in this case: inflation, the resiliency of Covid and the general malaise resulting from both). I’m just surprised Black Dem voters in GA are cool on Warnock.

  132. 132.

    UncleEbeneezer

    Just listened to Dave Roberts Voltz podcast about the Climate portion of the IRA.  He tells the whole history going back decades and largely views this as a huge and unexpected victory.  He points out that even the bad stuff like the oil/gas shit that Manchin demanded are more than offset by reductions from other parts.  He also notes that way more of the Environmental Justice provisions survived than he expected.  And that reductions in carbon emissions ALWAYS disproportionately benefits marginalized communities even if they aren’t specifically targeted.  But most important, he argues that the bill is a real game changer by setting the political stage for even more green investment and away from fossil fuels.  It’s a very good listen.

  133. 133.

    Joe Falco

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Sorry to ask, but did it get into why they’re tepid on Warnock? I’m wondering if this is a case of “my life has not improved since Person A was elected so I’m going to tie that into my opinion of them”? Warnock has been very diligent during his short time in office to raising up issues of everyday importance like drug costs so I always find it bizarre (even when I may know the reason and logic behind it) when voters get grumpy about their elected officials not being able to champion their causes into law for reasons beyond their control.

  134. 134.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Baud: I think ranked choice voting is coming. I like runoffs myself, but we’re living in an age of impatience and the convenience and quickness of ranked choice voting will win out.

    When I look into my cloudy crystal ball, I see a distant future where the prevalent electoral system will be like Alaska’s new one: an all-comer, “jungle” primary followed by a ranked choice runoff between the top four finishers.

  135. 135.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Jeffro: The summer I turned 10, my grandfather, my dad, and I climbed Mt. Woodring.  I assume it isn’t too rough since a nine year did it.  It was a wonderful experience, one that I am sure is improved by my sepia toned memories.  Anyway, check it out.

  137. 137.

    Tom Q

    @Geminid: I think ranked choice can be dangerous.  NYer here, who saw Adams elected mayor with essentially no one knowing a thing about him.  Ranked choice is a terrible system for an open primary that fields many candidates (I think it was 13 in that case), almost all of whom are little known.  (The only one with name recognition was the dread Andrew Yang.  Because of his semi-familiarity, he led early polling, which meant the press focused on him, giving even less visibility to all the rest.).

    In a runoff system, voters would have been able to get a clearer picture of the two candidates who survived the initial scrum.  Under ranked choice, the deed was done that first day, and we were stuck with Adams as essentially a pig in a poke.  Not to say the other system would necessarily have yielded a Roosevelt — Bill deBlasio, after all — but at least it would have been a choice made knowingly.

    Still, by the way, agnostic about Adams overall.  But I’ll say the fact he got his best support from black voters and Republicans suggest his coalition is a bit wobbly.

  139. 139.

    Betty Cracker

    @Geminid: I was reading about Alaska’s new ranked choice system the other day, and it sounded intriguing. Theoretically, a system like that could help weed out extremists, though I’m not sure that’s possible in some places, very much including Alaska.

    Maybe ranked choice can get more people to participate in primaries, which might boost turnout in general elections too. A rising share of voters don’t have a party affiliation, and if the young folks I know are a representative sample, it seems like that trend will continue.

  140. 140.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: On DeSantis’s Top Gun commercial

    Richard M. Nixon @dick_nixon 13m

    He was a Navy lawyer, for God’s sake. That is, the guy who Naval aviators laugh at.
    They guard the Wings of Gold like starving dogs.

  143. 143.

    Baud

    @Geminid:

    The one problem with ranked choice I see is that a lot of places have elections for all kinds of things, up to and including dog catcher.  Ranked choice ballots could get very large if everything was ranked choice.  I might limit it to important executive and legislative positions.

  144. 144.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’ve had a bad feeling about Cortez Masto’s race. Nothing concrete just a feeling. Some of this is based on reading about the Vegas hospitality industry getting beat up during COVID. Add on the possibility of a recession/ gas prices/housing cooling down and  then Laxalt having name recognition through his dad.

  145. 145.

    Betty Cracker

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I watched that ad after making sure my breakfast was thoroughly digested. Good lord, he looks like a fool, and I hope it backfires so hard.

    The subject of the ad did make me wonder if it’s proof of my theory that DeSantis and his extremely insular team of ass-kissers don’t realize just how deep in the con-media bubble they are. Scolding local reporters might come off as heroic to people who listen to Newsmax all day, but he just sounds like a dick to me. Maybe he will to regular people too.

    Do you know if it’s a general ad or run on Fox News or something exclusively? Or maybe they’re hoping to go viral and there are no ad buys? I haven’t seen it in the wild, but I don’t watch much ad-supported TV these days.

  147. 147.

    Geminid

    @Tom Q: If New York City had not changed to RCV Adams would have faced a runoff and might have lost.. Under the old system there would be a runoff if Adams did not exceed 40% in the first round, and he got around 33% of first choice votes, I believe.

    I like runoffs too, but I think that more people will want ranked choice. So many people are running for office these days that there is a need for one or the other.

    One interesting aspect of the recent Georgia Senate races is that Jon Ossoff would not be in the Senate had it not been for the state’s runoff rule. Perdue finished ahead of Ossoff, but a Libertarian got enough votes to keep Perdue from making it to 50%. Contrary to the historical pattern, Republican turnout in the runoff decreased more than Democratic, and Ossoff won.

  150. 150.

    Soprano2

    @Geminid: My husband is very negative about cancellation of student loan debt – “They signed a contract saying they’d pay that money back when you borrowed it, why should we let them get out of it?” is what he says every time the topic comes up.

  152. 152.

    ian

    @Baud:

    I’m of the belief that it would cost us more votes than it gets us.

    I think we should base our policy preferences on whether or not it works, not the vote totals garnered from it.  Not to say I know the correct answer on student loan forgiveness, but I think it is foolish to base a policy around education finances and loans around how many people might vote for us because of it.

  153. 153.

    Baud

    @ian:

    That’s not how democracy works. You have to take public sentiment into account, even if it doesn’t and shouldn’t always rule the day.

    In any event, not sure what “works” means in this context. All the choices have trade offs.

  154. 154.

    Joe Falco

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Whoever wins the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Florida tonight (and/or their allies) must hit DeSantis with everything they got over this commercial or they are completely lacking in political instincts. Maybe they can ask Fetterman’s people for advice.

  155. 155.

    Gravenstone

    @Soprano2: Do you know of any loan sharks you could introduce your husband to? Maybe he’ll come to feel differently after several years of paying usurious interest far beyond the original principal of the “loan”.

  157. 157.

    Another Scott

    @Geminid: AFAIK, Biden can only do what he’s doing for federal student loans.  How would bankruptcy apply to a debt owed to Uncle Sam?  TV tells me that it’s easy to get the IRS to accept pennies on the dollar, but TV doesn’t tell me if that’s via bankruptcy.  (I don’t actually think that it’s easy to get the IRS to take pennies on the dollar, also too.)

    I think that we all (except, probably, for Larry Summers) agree that education funding is messed up in all kinds of ways and needs to be fixed.  I don’t think bankruptcy is the way to go, even for the future.  Sure, treat it like other debt, but it should be rare and not a solution to a $1T problem.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  158. 158.

    satby

    @Soprano2: What does he say about the students who were defrauded by for-profit schools? And students who took out (say) $60k loans, paid them back faithfully, but the compounding interest combined with deferrals while in school leaves them in double or triple the amount of debt after decades of payments?

    Or doesn’t he believe that happens?

  164. 164.

    James E Powell

    @Geminid:

    Rep. Conor Lamb and others have proposed a law granting a $10,000 credit to anyone to pay down student debt or apply to new educational expenses. I like the principle  on grounds of equity and politics.

    That sounds like a great idea.

    My added suggestion is that student loans be no-interest.

  165. 165.

    Geminid

    @James E Powell: I’m not sure if the number is high enough, but I think it’s a good idea. And I agree that interest costs should be addressed, maybe through cancelling some or all of existing interest and refinancing loans at slightly above the rate for a ten year Treasury note.

  166. 166.

    Another Scott

    Nice rant here:

    These people love means testing as a compromise and I get that “$125,000” sounds like a lot but this is absolutely insane to do. The numbers do not add up.

    A THREAD: let’s say you took out $100K to go to college and you’re currently an adult with a mortgage and one child. https://t.co/eF6CjNSjEL pic.twitter.com/cecx9FzxFD

    — Meredith Shiner (@meredithshiner) August 23, 2022

    [ snip, snip ]

    You live in an American city. Your average monthly student loan repayment is $1600/month. Your daycare bill is $2500/month. Your mortgage+property taxes is $3000/month.

    Your average monthly payments for these three things=$7100.

    Your annual bill? $85,200/year.

    With a salary of $125,000/year, your take home pay after taxes (let’s say here in Illinois), is $88,500. So on your $125,000/year salary, after taxes, loan repayment, housing and childcare, what you have left over is $3300. FOR THE YEAR.

    You have not yet spent money on necessities like utilities, food, clothing, diapers, transportation. And unless you have a partner to help cover these costs, you are screwed. “Well don’t buy a home!” you say. Average rent in *Chicago* is $2200/month. Don’t even look at the coasts

    PEOPLE WITH GENERATIONAL WEALTH DO NOT TAKE OUT STUDENT LOANS THAT IS THE MEANS TEST HERE. “DID YOU TAKE OUT LOANS TO PAY FOR YOUR EDUCATION.” I FIXED IT FOR YOU, WASHINGTON.

    But you know over on Earth Three a Republican substacker is saying the reason that people aren’t having more kids is that they can’t fit three car seats into the back of their cars so we should stop mandating the use of car seats. DEFINITELY COMPROMISE WITH THOSE PEOPLE.

    Also if Joe Manchin, who is a multimillionaire, thinks $125,000/year without the safety net of family wealth is too much money, he should be forced to live on that and that alone in perpetuity. Would it even cover his party yacht?

    In an ideal world, $125,000/year should be a really nice salary that you can live on comfortably but we have not built American society that way. There’s no room left at the margins for a middle class for living. No paid parental leave. No sick leave. No universal healthcare.

    I was thinking about this a lot because we rented a place in a MI beach town and all the little cottages are being replaced by $ mansions and how 50 years ago, people with good union jobs in Chicago or Detroit could afford to summer there with their kids. We make joy inaccessible

    I know this seems like a small point relative to all but if you find yourself being like, “people who aren’t rich don’t deserve the opportunity to enjoy time with their kids like that” maybe ask yourself why we’ve constructed a society that doesn’t value human life and human joy.

    Her numbers are cherry-picked, of course, but there is a lot of truth in them. Yes, most people don’t make $125,000 a year and most people don’t have $100,000 in student loan debt. But far too many do have a huge amount of debt for their education, and that impacts not just their current and future prospects (“Hey, maybe I’ll get to buy a home by the time I’m 50!”) but the rest of society as well.

    People going to school after WWII didn’t have many multiples of their annual income of student loan debt. Those people built the middle class and laid the foundation for the internet and most of what we enjoy today. We’re a far richer country than back then; we shouldn’t impoverish 20-somethings who are just starting out in life to enrich the private equity investors behind Apollo Education Group’s “University of Phoenix” and the like.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  167. 167.

    Another Scott

    @Geminid: I’m not an education policy guy, but I think something like this makes sense (but I don’t know how it would sell politically):

    1. We know that payments on federal student loans have been suspended during the pandemic.  They have to be restarted eventually, the restart date has been kicked down the road several times, and restarting payments is going to be disruptive.  Something’s got to be done in the near-term.
    2. It would make much more sense for Congress to pass a bill to address the larger problem rather than have Biden try do it, because they can do the horse-trading to get the various factions on-board while he has much less ability to do that.  (I.e. he can’t say “I’ll cancel this $10,000 federal student debt for these people, and to make it fair for those who don’t have such loans, I’ll cancel your new car payment up to $10,000!”)
    3. Longer term, something has to be done because it makes little sense to make students pay so much of the cost, and a one-time debt reset would just build resentment.  “But they’ll get the benefits over their lifetimes, they should pay!!”  Sure, they get the benefits, but so does the rest of society, and the last 400 years of public school economic calculus didn’t suddenly change about that in the last 45 years.
    4. If you’re in America and want to go to college, things like Pell Grants and state support should cover the vast majority of the cost.  Society is more complex, technology is more complex, the workings of the world are more complex, and we need people to know how to navigate all the complexity.  Work-Study could/should be a component of aid (say 15 hours a week at $15/h and half of that going to school expenses).  Apprenticeships.  Co-Op education.  Etc.  Loans should be a last-resort (“Debt-Free College” is a great slogan that we should revive and push).

    I assume Biden’s had a “listening tour” to hear the various plusses and minuses on the dollar amount and how to structure it.  I assume that Biden will do something reasonable along the lines of what he said many months ago ($10k on his own was possible, $50k on his own was not).  I assume that Biden will talk about the need for reforming public education financing and he may already have legislation to do that.

    Ron Klain doesn’t need to call me.  ;-)

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  168. 168.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: I hope that House Democrats will advance legislation and vote on it. Maybe Lamb’s or Swallwell’s bill, or a combination of the two. The Senate won’t pass it, but a good proposal might be a decent campaign issue. Especially if coupled with Universal Pre-K and free community college.

    Maybe next year something along these lines could be added to a reconciliation bill. We seem to be on a positive fiscal path such that more investment in education can be justified. I especially hope we get Universal Pre-K. I can’t think of a better investment in our human capital. I think it would repay itself many times over.

  169. 169.

    RinaX

    @Baud: I’ve gotten a lot of negative feedback about student loan forgiveness from non-online people who aren’t Republicans. I’d prefer they not even address forgiveness until after the election, just extend the pause on repayments. I guess the decision’s been made now.

  170. 170.

    Brookso

    Gas prices aren’t falling as quick as they ‘ve risen few month prio. It’s same story as when ammo prices skyrocketed 2-3 times few years ago and still didn’t stabilize at all! Hell, I’ve been buying 7.62×39 https://gritrsports.com/shooting/firearms/rifles/7-62×39-rifles/ for like 1/4th of the price back in 2020, .22s for less than a half and 9mm for like 40% less. It’s all media trick to show how “everything is going to be fine soon”. Like hell it will, it’s only gonna get worse in long term!

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