I was all set to start writing last night’s post when the site went down. So I got cleaned up and racked out. But we’re back.
And we begin with a message from the Ukrainian MOD:
Run, Rabbit, Run! pic.twitter.com/7A5eKfWKXm
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 31, 2022
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukrainians!
Today was a really busy day.
I held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. All relevant leaders were there: Zaluzhny, Monastyrskyi, Budanov, Maliuk, Danilov and others. I think it is obvious what issues we considered. The military reported on the situation on the frontline, on the development of the situation.
I will not reveal the details now. I will say only one thing: on behalf of our intelligence, I want to thank all our people who support us very strongly in the south of our country, and especially in Crimea. The intelligence officers are grateful for the information provided and will use it to the maximum. Let the enemies not forget whose peninsula they are staying on. Temporarily staying.
The fighting in Donbas remains fierce – the hot spots in the region have not changed. Our guys are holding their ground. I am grateful to every warrior for resilience!
Today I held a meeting with representatives of the Parliament and the Government of Ukraine regarding the current plans of the state’s work.
I took part in the work of a very respectable forum in the Czech Republic, in Prague, called Forum 2000. It was founded by Václav Havel and is attracting significant attention in Europe.
I addressed the participants of the forum and urged them to strengthen the support of our state in this war and the protection of all of Europe from Russian pressure. In particular, the issue of limiting European visas for citizens of Russia should be finally resolved.
I think it is humiliating for Europe when it is considered as just one big boutique or restaurant. Europe is primarily a territory of values, not primitive consumption. And when the citizens of the state that wants to destroy European values use Europe for their entertainment or shopping, for the vacation of their mistresses while they themselves work for the war or to simply silently wait out the immoral fall of Russia, which is happening right now, this is completely contrary to everything which Europe was united for in general.
The European Union was intended to maintain peace on the continent. Work for peaceful and democratic development of European countries. Europe cannot become morally deaf. And none of the European leaders will be able to justify the fact that the money allegedly doesn’t smell for them with the consequences of COVID.
Because if there is such deafness, if there is such a loss of the ability to distinguish the smell of blood on bills, there will be no Europe, there will be no peaceful Europe.
I am grateful to those Europeans who understand that in wartime it is the duty of any normal person to fight for the aggressor to lose, for the occupation to end, for the Russian military to leave Ukrainian land.
Today I want to thank all our agricultural workers, port workers, diplomats and government officials who returned the status of a real guarantor of food security in African countries to Ukraine.
23 thousand tons of Ukrainian wheat under the UN World Food Programme have already arrived at the port of Djibouti. And they will be delivered to the people of Ethiopia, where there is the worst drought in the last 40 years and millions of people are on the verge of starvation.
We are also restoring the relevant connections with the countries of the Arabian Peninsula – almost 40 thousand tons of wheat are headed to Yemen.
And in general, more than 1.5 million tons of our food have already been exported by sea from the three ports that became operational thanks to the grain export initiative. We are doing everything for the world to feel the importance of Ukraine and be grateful to our people.
I signed the decree on awarding our warriors today. 149 combatants were awarded state awards, 15 of them posthumously. We will always remember our heroes!
Eternal glory to all who fight for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00, on August 31, 2022
Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred eighty-ninths (189) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
In the Volyn, Polissya and Siversky directions, the situation remains unchanged. On the latter, the enemy carried out mortar and artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Hai in the Chernihiv oblast and Dmytrivka and Kindrativka in the Sumy oblast.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy fired from barrel and jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Duvanka, Klynove, Sosnivka, Dementiivka, Ruska Lozova, Ruski and Cherkaski Tyshky, Velyki Prohody, Tsirkuny, Petrivka, Stary Saltiv, Peremoha, Shestakove, Bayrak, Nortsivka and Shevelivka .
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy does not stop trying to enter the administrative border of the Donetsk oblast. To date, fierce battles continue in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, in the Kodema, Zaytseve, Piski, Pervomaiske and Maryinka areas.
In the Slovyansk direction, enemy units continued shelling from barrel artillery and multiple rocket launcher systems near Dolyna, Krasnopilla, Bohorodychne, and Virnopilla. Enemy aircraft struck near Virnopilla.
In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Vesele, Berestove, Bohorodychne, Tetyanivka, Zakitne, Mala Piskunivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, and Ivano-Daryivka with mortars, tanks, and rocket artillery. Areas near Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka were hit by enemy aircraft.
In the direction of Bakhmut, shelling from artillery of various types was recorded near Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Zaytseve, Mayorsk and Kodema. With offensive actions, the enemy tried to advance in the directions of Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve, but was unsuccessful and retreated. Attempts are being made to establish control over the settlement of Kodema, fighting continues.
In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy fired mortars, tanks, barrel and rocket artillery near Avdiivka, Opytne, Umanske, Pervomaiske, Staromykhailivka, and New York. With offensive actions, it tried to improve the tactical position in the directions of Krasnohorivka and Maryinka, traditionally suffered losses and retreated.
In the Novopavlivsk direction, enemy fire was recorded near Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Velika Novosilka, and Blagodatne.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, enemy is using tanks, rocket and barrel artillery, the enemy carried out shelling along the contact line. The enemy is regrouping units and units of the 3rd Army Corps on the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region with the aim of resuming the offensive in the specified direction.
In the South Buh region, the enemy continued shelling military and civilian infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Oleksandrivka, Lyubomirivka, Novomykolaivka, Lupareve, Chervonyi Yar, Novohryhorivka, Stepove, Pervomaiske, Kiselivka, Partyzanske, Kvitneve, Chervona Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Ternivka, Andriivka, Osokorivka, Olhyne, Ivanivka , Trudolyubivka, Dobryanka, Potyomkine, Knyazivka and Topolyne. The Andriyivka district and the Plotnytske tract were hit by air strikes.
The enemy’s naval group in the waters of the Black and Azov Seas continues to carry out the tasks of reconnaissance and blocking of civilian shipping. The threat of missile strikes on objects and infrastructure elements deep in the territory of Ukraine continues.
The enemy suffers significant losses in manpower.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together we will win!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment and updated map regarding the situation in Kherson. They are from yesterday with the oldest one first:
KHERSON /1345 UTC 30 AUG / Information continues to evolve. Sources indicate that a multi-pronged UKR attack is developing on multiple axes of advance. UKR continues to interdict crossings of the Dnieper, making reinforcement, resupply or withdrawl difficult for RU commanders. pic.twitter.com/vb3ExhZm7y
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 30, 2022
CRIMEA IS UKRAINE: @SamRamani2 reports that Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has stated that Ukraine is maintaining evacuation routes for civilians wishing to leave Crimea. The Kerch bridge has been clogged with RU colonists departing Crimea. https://t.co/ae5wPowcS0 pic.twitter.com/qvMgSrrJET
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 30, 2022
And his latest assessment regarding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:
ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR PLANT /30 AUG/ A UN delegation including inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) left Vienna on 29 AUG, intending to inspect the RU occupied Nuclear Power Plant at Zaporizhzhia. It's unknown of they will be allowed to enter the facility. pic.twitter.com/veJtdiyU9V
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 30, 2022
The Kyiv Independent has more details:
Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian strategic positions in Kherson Oblast amid a new ongoing southern counteroffensive that could be a major turning point in the war.
As the war enters a new phase, the Kremlin’s troops are continuing their onslaught in the eastern Donetsk Oblast, while signs of hope appear at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, occupied by Russia since early March and used by Russian troops to shell Ukrainian-held territories.
Early on Aug. 31, a delegation of 14 experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headed to the Russian-held nuclear plant, embarking on one of the most complicated missions in its history.
But on its way to the Zaporizhzhia plant, Moscow’s forces refused to issue special passes to let the nuclear inspectors through its occupied territories at a checkpoint, BBC Russia reported. Local collaborator Vladimir Rogov said on Telegram that the watchdog’s experts could have reached the plant “safely (and) quickly” if they had headed to the plant through Russia instead.
The details of the IAEA’s expected visit to the Zaporizhzhia plant on Sept. 1 are unclear, including how quickly Russian forces will allow them to pass through checkpoints in their occupied territory and for how long the inspectors plan to be at the industrial site.
The plant, still operated by Ukrainian engineers living in the occupied town of Enerhodar, is in the middle of an active battlefield where frequent shelling has heightened fears of a nuclear catastrophe.
“We have a very, very important task there to perform, to assess the real situation there, to help stabilize the situation as much as we can,” IAEA director general Rafael Grossi said during a briefing before departing Kyiv.
As the long-awaited mission headed to the Zaporizhzhia plant, Russia continued its indiscriminate shelling across Ukraine, with attacks intensifying in the east.
In a convoy of armored S.U.V. vehicles, the IAEA delegation arrived in the afternoon in the Ukrainian-held city of Zaporizhzhia, which lies across the Dnipro River from the plant.
While Grossi said the mission had secured safety guarantees from both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, its trip was far from safe.
Ukraine had repeatedly called for a permanent IAEA presence at the plant, to which Moscow’s envoy to the agency Mikhail Ulyanov responded by saying that Russia “welcomes this intention.” But it remained unclear when such a mission would begin or whether Russia is fully on board with the idea that could potentially shed light on the alleged abuses to Ukrainian personnel if Kyiv’s accusations prove to be accurate.
As the nuclear inspectors set off for the Zaporizhzhia plant, the exiled mayor of occupied Enerhodar Dmytro Orlov posted photos of the damaged city council administration building after what appears to be Russian shelling on Aug. 31.
In the days leading to the IAEA’s visit, an anonymous senior U.S. military official said that the U.S. believes that Russian forces are firing artillery from positions around and in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia plant.
After meeting with Grossi to discuss the mission, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he hopes it will help prevent what could be a world-scale catastrophe.
“The risk of a radiation disaster due to Russian actions does not decrease,” Zelensky said on Aug. 30.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that a controlled shutdown of the plant would be the safest option.
More at the link.
Ukraine’s Main Directorate of (Military) Intelligence reports that the Russians have begun a stealth conscription in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
#ГУРинформује ‼️The occupiers plan to strengthen the defense of Crimea with “Muscovites”, “Peterians” and conscripts ▪️As it became known, even the military commissariats of the Moscow and Leningrad regions, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, received instructions regarding the mass conscription of local residents . ▪️ Military units stationed in Crimea will be equipped with “Muscovites” and “St. Petersburgers” drafted during the covert mobilization. ▪️In addition, for the purpose of resupplying the military units of the Russian Federation stationed in the temporarily occupied territory of the Republic of Crimea and strengthening the defense of the Crimean Peninsula, it was decided to send the commander of the Southern Military District, Army General Oleksandr Volodymyrovych DVORNIKOV (the so-called “Syrian Butcher”) to Crimea 1,200 conscripts. ▪️Since combat operations are not being conducted on the territory of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Crimea, these servicemen are not offered to sign a contract, which may indicate cost savings and reluctance to pay all the allowances specified by the legislation of the Russian Federation. 1,200 conscripts will serve and die under the blows of Ukrainian troops and at the hands of “partisans” for a conscript’s salary, which is about 5 thousand rubles (about 82 US dollars). The saving of state Russian funds will also take place due to non-payment of compensation in the event of the death of servicemen, because the participation of conscripts in hostilities is denied by the Russian Federation.
CNN has reported that the US assisted the Ukrainians with their current counteroffensive in Kherson through wargaming.
In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to the keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.
Those discussions involved engaging in “war-gaming” with Kyiv, the sources said — analytical exercises that were intended to help the Ukrainian forces understand what force levels they would need to muster to be successful in different scenarios.
The Ukrainians were initially considering a broader counteroffensive, but narrowed their mission to the south, in the Kherson region, in recent weeks, US and Ukrainian officials said.
Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told CNN that “the United States has routine military-to-military dialogue at multiple levels with Ukraine. We will not comment on the specifics of those engagements. Generally speaking, we provide the Ukrainians with information to help them better understand the threats they face and defend their country against Russian aggression. Ultimately, the Ukrainians are making the final decisions for their operations.”
Officials say they believe there is now increased parity between the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. But western officials have been hesitant to label the nascent Ukrainian operation — which appeared to begin on Monday in the southern province of Kherson — a true “counteroffensive.”
How successful Ukraine is likely to be in regaining lost territory remains an open question, sources familiar with the latest intelligence tell CNN. Ukrainian officials have already said this offensive will likely be a slow operation, and punishingly cold winter weather is coming and then an early spring mud, both of which could force pauses in the fighting.
More at this link.
Ukrainska Pravda is reporting that at the current rate of use, Russia is going to run out of a lot of ammunition and equipment by the end of the year:
KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO — WEDNESDAY, 31 AUGUST 2022, 5:07 p.m.
Russia will face an acute shortage of shells, artillery and armoured vehicles by the end of 2022.
Source: The Insider, Russian non-governmental media outlet.
Quote: “Six months of war has led not only to colossal irreparable losses in manpower, but also to a huge waste of weapons and military equipment for Russia. Guided missiles are already very scarce; shells for artillery and armoured vehicles will be exhausted by the end of the year; and the state of military aviation precludes a full-scale air campaign.
Because of the sanctions, Russia cannot continue full-scale industrial production of weapons and replenish its rapidly depleting stockpiles.”
Details: According to the analysis by The Insider, during six months of aggression against Ukraine, Russia had to use at least 7 million shells, not including the losses at frontline storage sites that resulted from Ukrainian strikes.
“If the intensity of the war remains at its current level, Moscow will face a tangible shell shortage by the end of 2022 and will have to reduce its use of artillery in order to save munitions,” the article says.
More at the link!
The Pentagon Press Secretary, Brig. Gen. Ryder, gave a for attribution on camera briefing this afternoon.
Turning to Ukraine, as you might have seen on Friday, a contract was awarded to Raytheon for the National Advanced Surface-To-Air Missile System, or NASAMS. This $182 million contract is in support of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, specifically, Tranche Three, which tasked the Army with the procurement and delivery of two NASAMS. As other contracts are awarded in support of the USAI, we will be sure to share that information.
And finally, on a scheduling note, the secretary and the chairman will travel to Ramstein Air Base, Germany, next week to host an in-person meeting September 8th of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. This will be the fifth meeting of the UDCG, the third in-person and the second at Ramstein since this group was formed in April. They will join ministers of defense and senior military officials from 50-plus nations around the world to discuss the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and continue our close coordination on providing the Ukrainian people with the means necessary to protect themselves against Russia’s unprovoked and illegal aggression.
And with that, I am happy to take your questions. Let’s start with Lita.
Q: Thanks, Pat. So take — so one quick clarification on what you just said. At one point there was, I thought, a suggestion that one of the NASAMS may move more quickly. Does this mean that neither — that no NASAMS yet are in Ukraine, or been sent to Ukraine? Is that just — just want to clarify.
GEN. RYDER: Correct, to my knowledge, those will be manufactured by the contractor and then — and delivered when — when complete.
Q: Okay. Can you give us a — a sense of the Pentagon’s assessment at this point of the counteroffensive that Ukraine has said that is going on, particularly in the south, and whether you’re seeing any significant changes of hands, in any of the property there? And second question: Are there any specific weapon systems or equipment that the U.S. military right now is going to have to go out and reorder because of the PDAs? Is there anything — any shortage anywhere that you all are seeing because of the PDAs?
GEN. RYDER: So — so on the latter piece, certainly, we’ll — we’ll aim to get you any detailed information on that note. But I will say that I’m not aware of any specific shortages at this time. Again, we will continue to maintain an open dialogue as — as early as next week again in terms of what Ukrainian needs are in the fight.
In regards to fighting in Ukraine, what I would tell you is that we are very sensitive to not getting ahead of the Ukrainians. I think you’ve heard some of their public statements, not the least of which is their president talking about the need for operations security. And so certainly from this podium, I’m not going to talk about tactical-level battlefield detail.
What I will say is that we are aware of Ukrainian military operations that have made some forward movement, and in some cases, in the — in the Kherson region. We are aware, in some cases, of Russian units falling back. But again, in order to preserve operation security and to give the Ukrainians the time and the space that they need to conduct their operations, I’m not going to go into that level of detail from the podium.
The last thing I would say on that is that our focus, as you know, remains on working with the Ukrainians and our allies and our partners around the world to ensure that they have what they need to fight against Russia in their homeland. Thanks, Lita.
Next question? Yes, ma’am?
Q: Thank you. Good to see you, sir.
GEN. RYDER: Good to see you.
Q: Yeah. I’m Janne Pak with USA Journal Korea. I have quick questions. Recently, some fighter jet have appeared in the South Korea air defense zone, and Russia and China are conducting joint military exercises now. Also, reporting that North Korea and China are conducting joint exercises. How do you assess these?
GEN. RYDER: Well, certainly, it is the right of all militaries and all nations that have militaries to conduct exercises. Our — our own military obviously conducts exercises. It’s certainly something that we’ll keep an eye on, given the — the nature of those nations, and in — in some cases, the instability that they are seeking to cause in various regions of the world. But again, not surprising, but something we’ll keep an eye on.
All right, let me go to the back of the room there. Is that Lara back there? All right.
Q: Thank you. I got the nosebleeds here.
(Laughter.)
I wanted to ask you two questions. One, I wondered if you could give us an update on the fighting around the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant? And can you tell us how and if the UN team has been able to get inside the power plant to do their job?
And then secondly, I just wanted to ask you about the Taiwan Strait and if you could tell us the significance of sending — the U.S. Navy sending cruisers to transit the Strait? I believe that’s not a normal operation.
GEN. RYDER: Sure. In terms of the power plant, you know, as has been said by others, we certainly welcome, first and foremost, the IAEA’s presence in the region. And, you know, to my knowledge, I know that they are in the vicinity of the plant. I do not know whether or not they have embarked for — or arrived at the plant yet.
And in terms of the fighting in the region, again, to the best of our knowledge, we do continue to see sporadic shelling in the region and we call on all sides to — to ensure that the safety of the power plant, for obvious reasons, and — and would also call on Russia to enable the IAEA team to be able to get in there and do their work.
In terms of the Taiwan Strait, what I would tell you — for — for those that weren’t tracking, on August 28th, we did conduct a Taiwan Strait transit. It was the U.S. Navy Cruiser Antietam and Chancellorsville. I would say that the transit demonstrates the United States commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific and that we will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere that international law allows.
There were no unsafe or unprofessional interactions to report during that transit, and so, again, we will continue to operate wherever the international law permits us to do so.
Q: If I could follow up, though — why — what — what was the reason you chose cruisers to go through the Strait? And it’s usually destroyers is my understanding.
GEN. RYDER: So what I would tell you, Lara, is I would get with the Navy or with Indo-Pacific Command, who certainly can come back to you on that. We do have these capabilities in the area, but in terms of the specifics on the ship, we’ll have to get back to you on that.
Q: Can I follow up on Zaporizhzhia —
(CROSSTALK)
GEN. RYDER: Sure.
Q: It’s interesting that you said that — I’m quoting here — “we call on all sides to ensure the safety of the power plant for obvious reasons.” Are Ukrainians, as well, endangering the safety of the plant —
(CROSSTALK)
GEN. RYDER: I would just say as we see fighting in the region, obviously it — it is something to be cognizant of. Clearly, this is the Ukrainians’ homeland and we do know that, you know, there are Russians in the vicinity there, but — but we would want to ensure that the inspection team can get in there and do its work.
Q: And a question on the Middle East — I — I think you addressed a similar question, I think — I believe last week, but we’re seeing clashes in Syria between U.S. forces and — and junta associated or aligned with — with Iran — northeast, an attack on al-Tanf, in the south yesterday, we had the incident with the sail drone, with the IRGC Navy. And of course, obviously what happened around the Green Zone, although it was related to the internal political issues inside of Iraq.
But are you concerned that there’s maybe a pattern of escalation that — that warrants a review of — of force posture and — and protection, especially in Syria and Iraq?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so — so to address the latter part of your question, I’m not going to make policy from the podium.
In terms of escalation, I would say right now no, when it comes to Syria. You know, we talked about that a little bit last week. Again, we’re going to do what we need to do to protect our forces in the region as they conduct their missions — in the case of Syria, supporting the defeat ISIS mission — but at this stage of the game, no, not concerned about escalation.
Q: (All right ?). You mentioned the NASAMS early on — technical question — but the contract says, buried in there, that delivery is expected in 2024 — August 23rd of 2024, two years later, two years from now. Can you explain to the best you can that sense of lack of alacrity there?
GEN. RYDER: Sure, absolutely. So as you look at the security assistance that we’re providing to Ukraine, you can really kind of look at it through two lenses. One is providing their immediate needs for the fight that they’re in right now. But there is also — and Dr. Kahl talked to this a little bit last week, there is also the aspect of providing enduring security support and Ukraine’s enduring security posture. And so we’re not necessarily just focused on right now, but it’s also ensuring that they have what they need in the future to be able to sustain deterrence and provide for their own protection.
Q: Whenever this system comes up in discussion, readers or listeners should not assume this is for the immediate fight. But this is down the line.
GEN. RYDER: Correct.
Q: Thanks.
GEN. RYDER: Correct.
Yes, ma’am.
Let me quickly go to the phone and then I’ll come back to Jennifer back there. Let’s go to Brandi from FedScoop.
Q: Thanks, General Ryder.
We saw news yesterday that the Navy interrupted an attempt by Iran to seize an unmanned vessel in the Persian Gulf. Have you seen any evidence of such behavior from Russia or Russia trying to capture unmanned coastal defense vessels that the U.S. sent to Ukraine?
And secondly, can we get an update on how those unmanned vessels are being used by Ukraine?
GEN. RYDER: Sure. On your first question, no. I’m not aware of anything like that at this time.
And then I’m sorry, your second question?
Q: Second question, can you provide anymore information about how those unmanned coastal defense vessels that were sent to Ukraine I believe around April about how they’re being used?
GEN. RYDER: We’ll have to get back to you on that one. I don’t want to get into specific details in terms of operational movements, but let us take a look on that, Brandi, and if there’s anything we can provide we’ll come back to you. Thank you.
Okay. Let me do another one on the phone here and I’ll come back to the room. Let’s go to J.J. Green, WTOP.
Q: Yes. Hi, General. Thanks for taking the question.
I’ve been hearing that the U.S. military was involved in some way in helping Ukraine prepare for this counteroffensive. Can you confirm that? In what way might the U.S. have helped them prepare for this?
GEN. RYDER: Yes. Thanks for the question, J.J.
What I would tell you is that as we’ve said before we have a routine military-to-military dialogue with Ukraine at many levels, and I’m not going to comment on the specifics of what those engagements are, but generally speaking as we’ve publicly commented on in the past it’s providing the Ukrainians with the information they need to better understand the threats that they face to defend their country.
But it’s important to point out here that ultimately it is the Ukrainians that are making the final decisions when it comes to operations. Thank you.
Oren?
Q: To Ukraine with questions on shipments. I was wondering if you could update us on the pace of shipments. It’s been awhile since we’ve had an update on sort of how many flights are regularly going in. I think it was 8 to 10 quite some time ago. Is it the same pace? Has it picked up, slowed down?
And then there have been — and this is a more specific question. There have been some speculation that the drawdown package announced on August 19 was to assist in a counteroffensive. Can we get an update on what from that drawdown package has gone in? What remains to be shipped?
GEN. RYDER: Thanks, Oren.
So in terms of the rate of security assistance into Ukraine, we can get back to you with some more specifics, but I would say that this is something that obviously we continue to take very seriously and U.S. Transportation Command continues to do amazing work working with U.S. European Command and others to get that assistance to the Ukrainians as quickly as possible. Certainly we’re seeing the affect of that assistance on the battlefield.
And then I’m sorry, your last question?
Q: Just wondering on the drawdown package announced on August 19, if you’d be able to update us on what from that package has gone in and what remains to be shipped?
GEN. RYDER: Well, let me get back to you on that one.
Okay, let’s go to Tony with Inside Defense.
Q: Thank you, sir.
My question’s about the status of funding for Ukraine. Is DOD running out of aid for Ukraine? And also, as DOD ponders what or how much it might ask next from Congress, does it want more money for PDA, to send the weapons directly to Ukraine, or is it now sort of seeking more money for USAI, where the weapons might not arrive for a couple of years?
GEN. RYDER: So to answer your first question, no, we are not running out of aid. And in — in terms of the — the breakdown between PDA and USIA (sic), you know, we’ll — we’ll — let us get back to you on that. I will say that certainly as we look at what the requirements are for Ukraine from a policy standpoint and from a procurement standpoint, generally speaking, we are going to use the mechanism that best supports the needs of Ukraine, working very closely with our allies and partners.
So we’ll — we’ll take a look at that. If there’s anything beyond that to provide, we’ll certainly give that to you.
That’s all the relevant stuff regarding Ukraine or Russia.
Kharkiv:
Rybalka accidentally captured on camera the rocket attack of the city of Chuguyeva, Kharkiv region#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/6GQZwBpF7F
— Ukrainian News24 (@MarkRid89403375) August 31, 2022
One of the 🇺🇦 pilots has made a footage of the MiG-29 fighter jets combat operations.
🇺🇦 pilot Ivan dedicates this video to major Yevhen Lysenko, his fallen brother in arms, who heroically died in an aerial fight against the 🇷🇺 invaders on March 9. pic.twitter.com/eUVYIAboDr
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) August 30, 2022
Lord, guard and guide the men fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
— Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)
Your daily Patron!
I think @oleksiireznikov is waiting like me too 🤭
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 30, 2022
Speaking of Minister of Defense Reznikov:
My personal salute to #NAFOfellas. I’d like to thank each person behind Shiba Inu cartoon. Your donations to support our defenders, your fight VS misinformation is valuable.
I’m changing my profile picture for a few days. Cheers @marlowc2324
NAFO expansion is non-negotiatiable! pic.twitter.com/SapxtsVsS5— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) August 30, 2022
NAFO expansion is non-negotiable!
Obligatory!
Whip it. Whip it good.#NAFO #WeAreNAFO #Fellas #HIMARS #himarsoclock pic.twitter.com/RVX12h7TFm
— Pete (@BravoKilo6464) July 15, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
And the caption:
Open thread!
Poe Larity
BJ crashed last night?
Gin & Tonic
@Poe Larity: It was inaccessible for a little while around this time.
WaterGirl
@Poe Larity: For about 5 minutes.
Anonymous At Work
Two things:
First, I am my father’s son. I was upset at the rocket attack video because the fragments scared away all the good fishing.
Second, serious note, if the attack returns all land west of Dnieper to Ukraine, what’s the strategic implication? Does it get them Crimea, or just mean that civilians evacuate Crimea and naval operations get based out of Russian territory east of Kerch Strait?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
That Run, Rabbit, Run video is just *chef’s kiss* perfection.
While I understand we have no idea how long this war will go on for or what changes are afoot in the coming months, with the recent positive updates on the Ukrainian side of the fighting and the negative (and often embarrassing for them) reports on the russian side…I don’t know how the invaders honestly expect to be victorious. Or maybe they’re at the point mentally where they don’t expect it, but instead will just destroy as much of Ukraine as they can. Repugnant bastards.
Want to link folks to the video on Ze’s FB page of him addressing the Venice Film Festival (this one has English subtitles). There is a break in his remarks where the list of names and ages of all the children russia has killed in the last six months scroll by, and it had me crying by the end. 358 children, plus another 735 wounded, 223 missing, and over 7,000 stolen. I cannot comprehend the mindset of people who willfully commit horrors like this.
Thank you as always, Adam. Hope you are well.
Carlo Graziani
At least UK MOD is now making reference to Ukrainian “armoured forces” and “formations” evidence that some of those 220 T-72 donated by Poland and Czech Republic back in March were not all pitched haphazardly into the Donbas battle, but were rather shaped into mechanized units.
I’m starting to lose patience with Pfarrer’s updates, though. An annotated “map” with 7 carefully placed arrows showing Ukrainian attacks, a Talmudic disquisition on the Russian order of battle and essentially zero information on what the Ukrainians are attacking with — other than the usual stuff about their indirect fires at bridges and ammo dumps — suggests to me that his information sources are not as good as his graphical skills.
We still know essentially nothing about this offensive — its progress, its prospects, the combat power the Ukrainians have brought to bear, More than 48 hours in, the picture is not clarifying.
HumboldtBlue
Run Rabbit Run was the first thing I watched this morning. So good.
Al;so, Serena is about to knock off the No. 2 seed to advance in the US Open.
Aaaaaand it’s over, Serena advances.
Gin & Tonic
@Anonymous At Work:
1 – the big river is named “Dnipro”
2 – Crimea is large. “Evacuating all civilians” is both hugely impractical and militarily unnecessary
ETA: Crimea is about the same area as Massachusetts.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani:
I like that.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: It worries me.
NutmegAgain
NAFO fellas with Devo hats are total winners! love that.
Also along with direct fundraising sorts of things, the guy who drew that wonderful HIMARS with the grinning mouth at the head of the last update (I think) also did the postage stamp from Snake Island (Russian Warship Go Fuck Yourself). If you click on the grinning HIMARS, it takes you to his site, with all kinds of wonderful drawings, including that famous stamp. You can get copies of his work.
counterfactual
@Anonymous At Work: If I understand kos at DailyKos correctly, the big prize would be retaking Nova Karkhovka and the dam and reservoir north of it. Before 2014, 80% of Crimea’s drinking water came from that reservoir. The Ukrainians dammed it after the 2014 invasion, but the Russians broke the dam this year.
If the Ukrainians have Kherson oblast west of the river, they’re now in HIMARS range of the rail Junctions at Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia oblast, so they can repeat the procedure for retaking everything west of Melitopol.
It looks like if they have Kherson, they might be in HIMARS range of Sevastopol, but I’m just eyeballing.
Cameron
@Carlo Graziani: Why is that? Do you think that Ukraine is plotting to invade the US? If it helps keep the Russians in the dark, I don’t mind being kept in the dark, too.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Carlo Graziani: Why? Does the entire general public have some kind of right to know all the details?
Medicine Man
Adam –
I was wondering if/when you’d drop a shout-out to the NAFO fellas. My twitter feed is chock full of the brain damaged Shiba avatars (probably because I’m following a few of them) and I love them to pieces. They’ve hit on exactly the right type of push back to Russia’s flood the zone BS.
Helps that I was following one of them on Youtube before the war. If you ever have time to kill Spaghetti Kozak‘s videos on Anti-Wehrboo Action and The Myth of Victor’s History are interesting, as is his last major video before heading back to Ukraine in March (Bargain Bin Barbarossa). Been following him on twitter but he had to log out on Monday.
pluky
@HumboldtBlue:
Not trying to jinx her, but if Serena can knock off the #2, then not out of the question for her to add another trophy to her collection.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic:
So say we all!
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani:
Related to the Trump story about classified materials, we don’t have a need to know regarding Ukrainian troop movements. If we know, the Russians know. That would not be optimal for the Ukrainian forces. We will find out soon enough.
Chetan Murthy
@Medicine Man:
And even UA’s MOD and Reznikov have recognized their effectiveness. It makes me wonder what lessons we in the US (and the West more generally) can learn about how to combat Teh Fash, from #NAFO. I have a friend to whom I broached this subject, and he argued [his words, not mine] that there was nothing to be learned, b/c #NAFO operates on Twitter, which is a “neutral platform”. But Teh Fash operates on FB, TruthSocial, Gab, and other platforms that are intrinsically slanted.
I don’t agree with him, but I don’t pay attention to the social dynamics of all these platforms, so can’t really judge.
But it seems like an interesting question, what can be learned from #NAFO.
James E Powell
@pluky:
If that happens, I will cry.
Origuy
So what is “stealth conscription”? It sounds like a lot of vodka offered by a pretty woman. Is шанхай (shanghai) a Russian word yet?
Omnes Omnibus
@Origuy:
Press gangs?
NutmegAgain
@NutmegAgain: Correction–Click on the link for Boris Groh (artist’s name) to get to his site…
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Got time for a language question?
The hashtag PesPatron: you said patron means cartridge or cannister, is that right? So might that hashtag be “Cartridge Dog”? or more like “Patron the Dog”?
Not important.
OpSec is of course important.
Origuy
@Omnes Omnibus: Press gangs does sound more like Putin’s style.
Anoniminous
@Origuy:
We have ample evidence the Russians have been kidnapping men off the streets in occupied Ukraine for their army.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: For clarity: I’m not talking about expecting to be informed, personally or otherwise. I am talking about what I would expect to happen in a large set-piece battle months in preparation, and the disconnect between the Twitter celebration of the offensive and what we’re actually seeing.
At this stage — more than 48 hours into what had been billed as the great southern counteroffensive, it makes no sense whatsoever to expect the kind of operational security about the number and types of Ukrainian units in the fight that you seem to suggest is natural. This is not an SOF op behind enemy lines. Even if there had been some expectation of operational surprise in the initial attack — which is absurd, given how extensively the attack was telegraphed — there is no concealing from the Russians now how many, and which units are engaged. They are in contact, for fuck’s sake. They’ve seen each other’s uniforms, interrogated each other’s prisoners, flown drones over each other’s positions.
Also, at this stage, the media, which in the early stages of a war tends to resemble a kindergarden full of retarded children with inner-ear disorders playing “pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey” in that they are more likely to report on each other than on any real story (the donkey, in the analogy) finally starts to get a clearer picture of what is going on, and the picture generally resolves better and better.
I don’t see that happening here, which suggests to me that perhaps a game of some sort is in progress. What worries me in this case is that I see very high expectations that have been set for a quick result of a powerful ground offensive. Celebrations are already breaking out in some articles that I’ve read. But those DOD officials that Adam quoted were already being much more cautious about the scope of the operation, and they appear to be among the very few people talking who know something.
There is an operation of some sort underway. When I say we don’t know anything about it, what I mean is, we don’t even know what the scope or objective of the operation is. All we know, almost our entire source of information is the UKR government. And they are playing it close.
Anoniminous
It’s not only shells the Russians have to worry about. Those shells have to go through an artillery tube (barrels for you noobs) and a tubes have a 500 to several thousand shell lifetime*. While the Russian Army has an inventory of tens of thousands of artillery pieces from the Cold War we should also keep in mind the Russian Army artillery park is no better than their tank depots meaning I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near one of them things when the gunner pulls the lanyard.
* technically: the Effective Full Charge lifespan
Planetjanet
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
Interestingly, we’ve seen US DOD sources saying that they urged UA to go small in this offensive, and to do so purposely. A completely plausible reason for puffing-up the offensive, is to encourage RU to throw ever more troops and materiel into the Kherson killing zone: it would actually be counterproductive to then throw a large UA force into action instead of just keeping RU bottled-up while barrel and rocket artillery destroys their supply, their posts, their transport, their morale.
I’m just a civilian, so what do I know. But there’s no upside I can see, to UA telling the world anything — *anything* — about their order of battle, until the campaign is finished. I really don’t see the upside. It’s true that they need to keep their supporters (*us*) onside. But they’re doing that with so many other info-ops: from pets, to photo-ops for soldiers, to so many other media placements. I don’t think failing to disclose operational details is a problem for that.
Re: Pfarrer, I would guess that he’s also observing strict opsec, for the obvious reasons.
Tehanu
I was struck by the bit about “stealth” conscription, which sounds like when the British Navy used to “press” men off the street to man their ships during the Napoleonic Wars. It’s basically kidnapping. I wonder if the average Russian is so used to mistreatment that they just let this happen to the (I assume) young men who get grabbed.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: At this point the Russians know far more than any Twitrer milblogger or any NYT reader about the Ukrainian order of battle in the south. Thats what combat contact does. The whole opsec thing is a farce.
Seriously, something isn’t right here.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: I’m no military historian, but I remember someone (maybe it was Adam) adducing several examples from WWII, where keeping plans and reserve forces secret was useful (nay key) to eventual victory in battle. I forget the details: maybe someone else here remembers.
ETA: and this was *after* the battle was joined, not simply before the action commenced.
Lyrebird
@Carlo Graziani: I believe you are not casually saying we should get all the UA memos, and I certainly agree that Twitter is full of hotheads. I don’t read it much.
I will stick my neck out to say that your point about the media works just fine without putting the r word in there. My students have persuaded me that the word hurts enough that it should be left in the past.
As far as the substance of what you ar saying above, I can’t add further to what @Chetan Murthy: already said.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Operation Mincemeat, which led the Germans to believe that the allies were about to invade Sardinia and Greece, while in fact they were about to invade Sicily. (Check it out in Wikipedia- it’s an amazing story. And by the way, it was invented by Ian Fleming, later the author of the James Bond books.)
Operation Fortitude, which led the Germans to believe the landings at Normandy were a feint, and the real landings would be at Calais. Hitler fell for this one, hook, line and sinker
ETA: Both were implemented before the battle was joined, I’m not aware of any after the battle was joined.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: I think Carlo would rightly say that those were both operations carried-out *before* the main action they were distracting from, and hence not relevant examples. I’m OK with that. I remember somebody pointing out examples that were much more responsive to his argument, though. Maybe something about the North Africa campaign …..
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: I’m not sure this has been “billed as the great southern counteroffensive” by any responsible person. Sure, there has been excitement because folks have been waiting and hoping for a forward movement on the part of Ukraine’s army. But retired general Mark Hertling, for instance, said yesterday that he thought the UA was “shaping the battlefield” and not yet launching a full scale counteroffensive.
And even if this were the start of a major counteroffensive, there’d be no reason to expect large territorial gains or prisoner captures in just 48 hours. The second battle of El Alamein was Montgomery’s most famous victory, but his army spent a lot more than two days “crumbling” the German and Italian front line positions before his armored forces even tried to break through Rommel’s lines.
I think that you are a very thoughtful person and that you may be overthinking this.
dr. luba
@Lyrebird: Patron is the dog’s name. Пес (pes) means dog–so Patron the dog.
He was named Patron (cartridge) because why not?
livewyre
@Carlo Graziani: At this point I have to admit it’s hard to tell what exactly it is you’re demanding, or warning against. What I’d caution against in return is potentially excessive self-assurance about the reliability of what seems to amount to a hunch without any form of corroboration. Hopefully we can agree to a more mutual process in forming impressions of a military campaign that we are not and presumably should not be informed on in detail.
Unrelatedly, but to a similar end, I would also plead for more circumspection in one’s characterization of marginalized individuals with derogatory rhetoric. I’m sure no harm is meant, but it doesn’t need to be in order to happen. You understand.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Carlo Graziani: 1) I think you have odd ideas about how these things should work. 2) The UA is under no obligation to do things the way you think they ought to be done. 3) Do not use the fucking R word if you ever want anyone to take you seriously on anything. Are you kidding me? What other slurs do you like to toss around for fun when you’re bloviating about shit like you know better than everyone else on the planet, and especially better than Ukraine? God damn, dude.
Lyrebird
Thanks @dr. luba: !
And as far as his name goes, his human sure knows Jack Russells, so I am sure the name fits the pup to a T!
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Near the end of July, I ran a fantasy up the flagpole about a Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Zapirizhzhia, down the highway to Melitopol. At the time it seemed to make sense, because the Russians had dispised themselves in a bar-bell with a hole at Zaporizhzhia, it was new moon, and I had hallucinated a large Ukrainian armored force held in reserve hidden in the city.
I’ve since come to terms with the fact that the Ukrainian army, for reasons that elude my attempts at accounting for what their UMT draft + active reserve should permit, cannot afford the luxury of assembling large mobile reserves to exploit military textbook opportunities, particularly while a large fraction of its forces are engaged in a death-grapple with the Russian army in the Donbas.
I just don’t see them holding back a mobile reserve in the Kherson battle to exploit some breakthrough. If this really is their best shot, I think they probably committed most of what they have in the theatre.
Carlo Graziani
@Lyrebird: Sorry. Point taken.
Everyone else: you are quite right. Sorry about that.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Yes. Sorry.
Bill Arnold
It is a bit eye-catching that the Ukrainians are instructing people to cede the counteroffensive-related RUMINT (etc) spaces to Russian military propagandists, including the Russian Federation Ministry of Defence, who have been exceeding expectations with their lies. It’s fine for now,. Ukraine is dependent on continuing deliveries of Western weaponry/ammunition/other military goods; they need to maintain/build international political support; their reputation for honesty and at least some transparency (even if reasonably time delayed) are both important. This is easier when contrasted with Russian propaganda, so that’s part of the Ukrainians’ calculations.
Carlo Graziani
@livewyre: It’s not “informed in detail”.
It’s more that by this point, had the expectations set up for this campaign been born out, it would be reasonable to be seeing news headlines along the lines of “Ukraine masses 2500 troops for southern assault” in a headline based on, say, public satellite imagery. This would be no violation of opsec, because the Russians already know what they are dealing with.
Also, yes, sorry.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani:
Expectations set up by whom?
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: Sometime in July, or perhaps late June, as I recall. the Kiev government began PSAs to the citizens of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, telling them that reconquest campaigns were nigh, and that they should do whatever they could to either clear out and reach Ukrainian-controlled territory or get a plan to be safe when operations began.
That was the beginning of a propaganda crescendo that now apoears to have been intended to climax in whatever it is that is going on around Kherson this week. I would say that the Kiev government has, for reasons it alone understands, set extremely high expectations for what is to come. And if anything, they may have been set higher in Ukraine itself than elsewhere.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
Several former US generals have pointed out that UA is not good at large-scale combined-arms operations: better than RU, but still not *good*. Just this morning, I saw someone saying they thought UA was OK at doing it at the company-level, but nothing larger. It is completely possible that UA isn’t committing all their forces, *simply* b/c they recognize that it would be replicating the stupidity of RU’s prior operations.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani:
Or they could have been trying to clear their own civilians out of the area to prepare for an offensive that they will launch at a time of their choosing. I agree with the folks who are suggesting that you are overthinking this.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: And at the time, Kos over at The Great Orange Satan was speculating that UA was telegraphing these moves to encourage RU to move forces from the Donbass into Kherson. At the time, we got lots of reporting about just how *hellish* the lines in the Donbass were: interviews with rotated-out UA soldiers talking about the death toll, how hellish it was, all sorts of stuff.
It seemed completely plausible that UA was trumpeting an offensive in Kherson simply to take pressure off Donbass, and in recent weeks Kos started referencing his previous speculation, and arguing that he’d been right, and that that is what happened. And that UA was now using Kherson as a killing zone to take apart RU forces. Without, note well, a large offensive: just bring them to Kherson, and then blow them up with artillery.
kalakal
@Chetan Murthy: I think you might mean me
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: I’ve seen a bunch of tweets in the last days, on the pattern of this one
Bring them to the killing zone and take them out. Doesn’t require massive combined-arms, when you can use precision arty.
Chetan Murthy
@kalakal: Thank you, YES! I was referencing you and your comment.
Ken
@Andrya: I read an excellent biography of Juan Pujol Garcia (“Garbo”) a few years ago. He is generally given the lion’s share of the credit for convincing the Germans that Fortitude was real.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: I appreciate the vote of confidence. Examples of articles confidently reporting the action around Kherson as The Counteroffensive are here. and here. Pfarrer clearly believes that is what is hapoening. It may be what is happening.
I think it’s not right to analogize these battles to WWII battles such as El Alamein, though. The scale is wrong, in time, space, and unit size. This is a much smaller battlefield, with smaller units, fighting over shorter distances on shorter timescales. They’ve certainly seen each other by now, and at a minimum read insignia from uniforms on corpses, but rudimentary prisoner interrogations are not implausible. Contact always creates tactical intelligence, and gathering tactical intelligence is part of infantry officer training.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: Possible.
moops
As long as Russia is willing to dump troops and supplies into Kherson, there is no point taking it. Just let them struggle their way into the killzone then shuffle of this mortal coil. Pile up the orcs high enough to even make burning them impractical. The survivors can take tales of horror back to their new units.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: First, russia has a long history of lying to itself and to everyone else, especially under VVP. Sensible people there would not trust any report about anything. They likely do not have good intelligence about what is going on (witness the earlier reports about them using ~ 40 year old maps of Ukraine to pick targets). Ukraine keeping its cards close – even when the battle is underway – makes sense.
The Fog of War is real.
My fuzzy recollection of the Gulf War was that we civilians didn’t really know what was going on until days later, and mostly not until it was over. And that was with US TV reporters on the ground.
(Excerpts)
The US had overwhelming superiority and it still took time to get the job done. Ukraine does not have that superiority, even if she has many advantages.
Patience, grasshopper.
Cheers,
Scott.
kalakal
I’m actually beginning to think that the Ukranians are to some extent channelling Montgomery. He was a master at creating & exploiting one sided attritional warfare and in the Kherson region that’s exactly what is being created by the Ukranians. The Russians cannot afford to lose Kherson politically, militarily they’d be better off pulling back to east of the Dnipro, as it is they are having to commit increasing numbers of troops to a position with extremely vulnerable supply lines where Ukraninian artillery can pound hell out of them. As a bonus moving units long distances from Donbas etc causes attrition in of itself. Those poorly maintained AFVs will be breaking down & clagging roads for 100s of miles.
Perhaps a more exact historical parallel would be von Falkenhayn’s original intention for Verdun in WWI. He didn’t actually intend to capture territory, he wanted to force the French to commit more and more forces to defend a vulnerable salient that politically they had to hold while he pounded the area flat.
Initial territorial success meant that he was forced by German politics to actually attempt a breakthrough leading to the longest, and, in terms of casualties per area fought over, bloodiest battle in history. Even by WWI Western Front standards Verdun was a horror, known as von Falkenhayn’s mincing machine.
I find the Ukranian moderating of expectations reassuring, I think they intend to bleed the Russians dry here, not have a mutual bloodbath in order to achieve quick territorial advances
patrick II
I don’t know that I have ever seen a major war in which one weapon system could make such a difference. The Ukrainians were in trouble after Russia switched to the big artillery/slow advance warfare. HIMARS seems to have changed the ballgame for Ukraine.
Andrya
@Ken: Thanks, I will check it out.
Omnes Omnibus
@kalakal:
Monty isn’t a bad model to follow. Patton famously said that Monty was too cautious because he was afraid to lose, but Monty came from a country that was fighting for its life. He could not afford to lose. Ukraine is in a similar position. They must win. As a result, they cannot afford just to roll the dice. Methodical and careful will serve them better.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: Omnes, I have this vague memory that Monty eventually lost that caution with Market Garden, and his big gamble went sour in a big, big way. I wonder if there’s a lesson there for UA: keep the caution, b/c you’re not going to have second chances for a long time, if ever.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy:
Yeah, the one time he rolled the dice was Market-Garden. And, just for the record, unlike the implication in the movie, Browning had said from the very start that he thought they were going a bridge too far.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Typical even the generals in charge don’t really know what happened in any given battle until years later, if ever. There is a you tube channel The Western Front Society which is a bunch of lectures by WWI historians and contradictory war diary reports of the same action between German and British units is a common theme.
Medicine Man
@Chetan Murthy: There are lessons to learn, I think.
My biggest take-away from the Fellas is not to give fash the benefit of the doubt. The asymmetry alt-right trolls and their supporters enjoy is that they want to harass, exhaust, and waste the time of their opponents, while cycling through false narratives. Wasting little time mounting an intellectual rebuttal and just hitting them in their egos works much more efficiently, because underneath all their nonsense, these assholes really do take themselves seriously.
way2blue
Adam, can you shed any light on why India is apparently joining Ruissa & China in joint military exercises. Is this being driven by Prime Minister Modi per se. Is the general population in agreement with aligning with those two autocratic nations? Is it a means to spurn the U.S.? Just surprising & disquieting to me… Thanks.
Chetan Murthy
@moops: Kos agrees: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/31/2119873/-Ukraine-Update-Tens-of-thousands-of-Russians-cut-off-in-Kherson-their-artillery-dwindling
Medicine Man
@Chetan Murthy: 50/50 blinded by their own chauvinistic disdain for Ukrainians / subordinate to Putin’s pie in the sky objectives.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: It’s “Kyiv” not “Kiev.” You know that, so at this point I have to assume you are doing this intentionally.
Chetan Murthy
lowtechcyclist
A Russian critic of the war gets careless near a high window:
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: El Alamein is certainly an imperfect analogy to the situation on Kherson front. The similarity I had in mind is that the Russians have been for months preparing a defense in depth using heavy equipment to construct strong points that cannot be safely bypassed by armored forces. A difference is the relative morale of the defenders, which is all the more reason for the Ukrainian Army to be methodical and not allow the RA any local tactical successes that might encourage them.
I would add that I don’t think your use of Kiev instead of Kyiv was intentional. Like calling the Dnipro the Dneiper, its an easy mistake to make because it’s been a familiar spelling for so long.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: Once or twice is a mistake, and I politely correct people. Doing it repeatedly after being called out on it is a pattern.
Anonymous At Work
@Gin & Tonic: 1. Apologies, going from memory.
2. I’m from Texas. New England states are not a solid unit of measurement. Boston and NYC traffic times *are*. As far as population, what kind of numbers are we talking, though? Massachusetts or Wyoming?
2b. I’d not want to be a civilian in Crimea, as I’d expect it to be next on Ukraine’s list of targets for recovery. Russian tourists and their servicers would leave. Ukrainians trapped for 8 years might also want to leave the other way if possible.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: +1
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: I see this differently than you do, and while I take your comments about Ukraine and Ukrainians very seriously I’m not as sure of your objectivity in other areas.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Sigh, no, it was an oversight, “Kiev” was just old, embedded neural cruft. If you roll back the tape, I do “Zaporizhzhia” above, and in the past I’ve wiritten “Dnipro”. Generally my practice is to go to Google maps and check the romanized spelling of an unfamiliar place, if I don’t feel sufficiently comfortable going from memory. What I do not to is go down a list of G&T-approved Ukrainian spellings for use on BJ.
What is this bug up your ass? Are you so incapable of assuming good faith on other people’s part, and so invested in the role of policing Ukrainian spelling, that you just can’t help becoming a shrill scold every fifth post or so? I mean, if it matters SO MUCH to you, can’t you at least bring a little humor to your cop duties?
It gets kind of heavy and toxic around here when you bring on the big sneer. I mean, I’m used to your dick behavior, and I generally ignore it because most of the time you don’t act that way. I’m guessing many people don’t have the same kind of thick skin that I do. Is it really worth leaving strap marks over spelling?