(Ukrainian Warrior by Patalony)
I’m going to keep tonight’s post shorter than the last two. Largely because the news has slowed a bit as everyone races to catch up with the reality on the ground.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Fellow Ukrainians!
Today is 200 days of our resistance. Our struggle. Our people’s war. For freedom, for independence, for the right to be. In these 200 days, we have achieved a lot, but the most important, and therefore the most difficult, is ahead. And I want to dedicate this address to those who are ahead. Who are having the hardest time now, as they are doing the most important thing.
These are all defenders of Ukraine. All those who have been courageously standing for 200 days, being the exact reason why Ukraine stands. Strong, and that is why we are free. Unbreakable, and that is why we are independent. Our fighters, who heroically restrained the enemy, and now they do not restrain themselves. And they drive the occupiers out in the north, south and east. In all directions, but moving in only one direction – forward and towards victory.
200 days of Ukrainian resistance. Almost 5 thousand hours. Almost 300 thousand minutes. Almost 20 million seconds. And just as many reasons to say “thank you” today to everyone who made this possible. Millions of times. Without any “almost”. To say that we believe in them, believe in their victory. Without any “almost”.
These are all our warriors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ground troops, our infantry. You know better than anyone else: there is little romance in war and a lot of hard work. These days, it is courageously and selflessly performed by our separate mechanized brigades. The 92nd – named after Kish otaman Ivan Sirko. The 54th – named after Hetman Ivan Mazepa. The 14th – named after Prince Roman the Great. The 60th Inhulets separate infantry brigade. Step by step in the Kharkiv region, Kherson region, Donbas, with weapons, shovels, hands, teeth – you are “gnawing away” every meter, every frontier, every city and village of ours.
These are our tank troops. Those who forge the future victory in iron gloves. And today, on the day of the professional holiday, as well. These are the 3rd, 4th, 5th separate tank brigades, tank regiments and battalions, tank companies within the airborne assault troops, the 17th separate Kryvyi Rih tank brigade named after Kostiantyn Pestushko. And especially – the 1st separate tank Siversk brigade. I sincerely congratulate all of you and everyone involved on Tanker’s Day.
These are our missile troops and artillery. You are rightfully called the “gods of war”. You send the occupiers to the divine trial. You send the demons back to hell. Today, the 406th separate artillery brigade named after brigadier-general Oleksiy Almazov is doing this with special fervor and spark in their eyes. We are grateful to its fighters and in general to everyone whom we warmly call “our arta”.
How would one describe your jewelry work in two words? Accurate and loud. We thank you for every “accurate” and every “loud”. For all destroyed enemy convoys, warehouses, bases and headquarters. Important crossings and bridges. Where your efforts cause fire and where the enemy violated the rules of fire safety. People online wish you accurate calculations and new hits, and they address the occupiers in a language they understand: “Stop smoking everywhere. Smoke where there hasn’t been a hit yet”.
These are our Air Forces. Bombing, assault, fighter, reconnaissance, military transport aviation. Defending Ukraine you are always on top.
These are our Airborne Assault Troops. You are always the first! Because it is no one but you! These slogans are not just words. The enemy has been aware of this for eight years and 200 days. And today, the occupiers especially feel the strength and power of the 79th airborne assault brigade, the 25th and 80th airborne brigades. In particular, in the Kharkiv region, which you are successfully liberating from the enemies. And in the Donetsk region, where you are successfully repelling the enemy.
We are sure: in both areas there will be one finale – your victory. For this, one doesn’t need to read forecasts, it is enough to read your oath. You are the paratroopers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. You will never accept defeat. You will never retreat in the face of difficulties. You will never leave your brothers-in-arms in danger. You are always ready to destroy the enemies of Ukraine in battle. You are the paratroopers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine!
These are our Naval Forces. You proved that it doesn’t matter what fleet the enemy has, what flagship he has, when Neptune is on your side. Guards of native shores. Missile boats, artillery, minesweeping and landing craft, naval aviation, naval artillery and, of course, marines. And I especially want to note the 503rd separate battalion of the marines. On your chevrons there is an inscription: “If this is an offensive, this is us.” In our hearts there are words: if this is you, this is success and victory.
These are the air defense troops of Ukraine. Anti-aircraft missile troops, radio engineering troops, air defense of the Ground and Naval Forces. You hear an air raid alert differently than most. Most descend into shelter. You direct your gaze upwards to destroy enemy missiles, aircraft, helicopters and drones.
This is our intelligence. For obvious reasons, very few people know your names, your faces. Your operations are not usually written about in the news, but they will definitely be written about in military science textbooks. Your successes are often quiet and imperceptible to our people, but always painful and tangible to our enemy.
These days, intelligence officers are especially showing themselves. The 131st separate reconnaissance battalion of military intelligence of Ukraine. Those who are always ahead. I thank you, I thank all the units of the Main Intelligence Directorate and all our intelligence officers, thanks to whom we always see, always hear, always know, always act. And we will definitely win.
These are our special forces, Special Operations Forces. Those who attack. Those who prevail not in quantity, but in quality. Those who have a special power to fight on the edge of possible and impossible.
These are the territorial defense forces. And we especially note the fighters of the separate 115th and 117th territorial defense brigades.
These are medical troops that save the lives of our warriors. These are military clergy, chaplains who pray for the lives of our warriors. These are our engineers, communications officers, cyber army.
These are those who have been defending and serving the state side by side with the Armed Forces of Ukraine for eight years, for 200 days and right now. I thank all the warriors of the National Guard, its special forces, in particular the 15th Sloviansk regiment. I am thankful to all our border guards. To the officers and employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Police, the State Emergency Service, our firefighters, rescuers, sappers. And altogether – to all our warriors, defenders, the best sons and daughters of Ukraine who are liberating its north, south and east today.
To everyone who in 200 days destroyed more than 2,000 enemy tanks, 4,500 armored combat vehicles, more than 1,000 enemy artillery systems, 250 aircraft and 200 helicopters, almost 1,000 drones, 15 ships and boats, thousands of other enemy equipment units.
Liberated hundreds of our towns and villages. Who broke the plans of the enemy, because they did not break themselves. All those who held the defense and defended Kyiv. Saved our capital, and thus preserved our faith in our victory.
All those who strengthened and multiplied it by protecting Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro. Everyone who defended Mariupol and Azovstal. Liberated the Kyiv region, Zhytomyr region, Chernihiv region, Sumy region. Bucha, Irpin, Borodyanka, Vorzel, Hostomel, Makariv. Okhtyrka, Sumy. And now – Balakliya, Izyum, Kupyansk.
All those who liberated, liberate and will liberate all temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Bring back the Ukrainian flag to Kherson, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Luhansk, Horlivka, Yenakijeve, Mariupol and Donetsk, Yalta, Dzhankoy, Kerch, Yevpatoriya, Simferopol. Who have been working 200% all these 200 days.
The enemies said that they got lost, that they were going to an exercise. You taught them a lot. The ability to quickly get dressed and get out of our land, and the understanding that, by abandoning equipment and weapons, it can be done much faster and easier.
Many of them have forever learned that it is correct to say not “on Ukraine” but “in Ukraine”. I am talking about all those who set foot on our land and stayed in it. Many will forever remember what awaits all uninvited guests in Ukraine. Our warriors.
Today, everyone sees and notes your actions in the north, south and east of Ukraine. The world is impressed. The enemy is panicking. Ukraine is proud of you, believes in you, prays for you, and is waiting for you.
The path to victory is a difficult one. But we are sure: you are capable of it. You will reach our border, all its sections. You will see our frontiers and the enemies’ backs. You will see the shining of the eyes of our people and of the occupiers’ heels. They will call it “goodwill gestures”. We’ll call it a victory.
We believe in you, in those who have been doing their job, risking their lives, defending their country for all these 200 days at -15°C or +35°C, at 2 am or 6 am, on an ordinary Monday or on Independence Day, despite fatigue, tension and danger.
All who were definitely ready. Who do not pay attention to rumors and gossip. Who do not read fakes on the Internet, but write the history in real life. The history of independence. The history of victory. The history of Ukraine. Our warriors, our fighters, our defenders. For us, you are definitely the first army of the world.
Glory to you!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today. They seem to be giving their mappers the weekends off. Lazy gits…
Here are former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s two latest assessments regarding the battle for Kharkiv. Most recent first:
NOTE: The rapid collapse of the RU front east of Kharkiv is making plotting UKR progress difficult. Several optimistic projections have been promulgated, and press releases from RU and UKR are contradictory. The 2100 UTC post is regarded as conservative. Updates to follow.
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 11, 2022
MANY THANKS: To friend and colleague @COMMCEN76 who mapped and analyzed the rail networks supplying RU occupation forces.
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 11, 2022
Russian border officials are refusing to admit the Russia aligned residents of Donetsk and Luhansk that Russian insisted get new Russian passports over the past 200 days:
FRIENDS LIKE THESE: “Citizens” of Putin’s puppet states in Luhansk and Donetsk are evacuating and crowding roads to the frontier– only to discover that they're being refused entry into Russia. Odd, because many of them are carrying freshly issued Russian passports. https://t.co/Qe1bKL3Igr
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 11, 2022
These people are now internally displaced. They have also given their allegiance to Putin and Russia. And are now trapped between the advancing Ukrainian Army and the Russian border.
And the Ukrainian Army has made it to the border!
Ukrainian forces on the Russian border – the town of Hoptivka.
The battle of Kharkiv Oblast is an absolute Ukrainian victory. pic.twitter.com/SpidoQoHFW— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 11, 2022
The Russians, of course, have been screwing around with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and bombarding other parts of the Ukrainian power grid:
⚡️ Intelligence: Russia plans to again shell Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
Russian forces are allegedly planning another attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the neighboring city of Enerhodar, says Ukraine’s Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 11, 2022
The sixth reactor was operating on “island mode” for the past three days, maintaining only its own needs, after Russian shelling damaged power lines. Now, "preparations are underway for its cooling and transfer to a cold state,” reportedly the "safest state."
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 11, 2022
BREAKING: Electricity blackout in Kharkiv, as well reports of outages in Dnipro, Poltava, and Sumy. Kharkiv regional police chief confirms Russia targeted the power grid. With @v_solohub
— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) September 11, 2022
Russian news media is finally beginning to realize that things are not going well in Ukraine:
First, and most obvious, there's not even a hint of the Ukrainians' advance from Kharkov deep into Russian-held territory. Quite the opposite, instead there are tallies, drawn directly from MOD briefings, of alleged enemy losses (4000 KIA since 6 Sept) 2/https://t.co/TJfOQurDJu
— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) September 11, 2022
But even so, the propagandists can't help but trip themselves up. The account of how a Mi-35 gunship crew allegedly thwarted a Ukrainian river crossing might be comforting to the paper's readers…assuming they don't look at a map, because… 4/https://t.co/G0nekyMkWt
— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) September 11, 2022
By placing the action at Sen’kove, on the Oskil River (which seems to have been taken already), it is admitting just how deeply the Ukrainians have already gone. Presumably, they are relying on readers imbibing the triumphalist tone and not digging into the detail. 5/
But this illustrates some wider issues. 1) The Kremlin seems stunned, and has not yet come up with a plan as to how to try and spin this, so to a large extent the media are ignoring the bad news until they get a directive. No one wants to show initiative lest they get it wrong 6/
(Which is, incidentally, the same Soviet-style defensive thinking that is bedevilling the military, especially disastrous in a time of rapid and unpredictable change) 7/
2) The Kremlin is happy to lie, but can’t just ignore realities, and so is really struggling to create any positive narratives on issues where some basic fact-checking is possible. This is the kind of dilemma we saw in Chechnya (x2) and the Sov war in Afghanistan, and… 8/
…Tends to be a sign that the state’s control over the narrative is cracking. It is not so much IMO that Russians up to now have necessarily *believed* the official line so much as that they have had no reason to both *disbelieving* it as that is dangerous… /9
…both politically and also morally. I remember one parent of a vet from Afghanistan I interviewed for my PhD. She said “I didn’t want to believe what people were saying about the war, because if I did, then I would either have to act or be a part of it.” /10
This desire to avoid the truth as long as possible is a very human one, alas, but especially prevalent in authoritarian regimes. But in due course – and esp as the official narrative becomes less and less credible – it does break over time. 11/
The evening TV ‘shock jocks’ will still rant, but they matter less than many believe. When even core state propagandists like RG are at a loss, despite their closeness to the administration, then this is a sign of political pressure, maybe even crisis. 12/end
ICYMI, watch this too: https://t.co/szdEK3RXVt
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 11, 2022
Ukrainian soldiers make an unexpected find:
A soldier reads it “And glory to you, dark-blue mountains,
Frost and snow protect you;
And to you, great-hearted heroes,
God does not forget you.
Struggle on—and be triumphant!
God Himself will aid you;
At your side fight truth and glory,
Right and holy freedom.”— Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) September 10, 2022
Kyivan/Ukrainian Valkyries!!!!
There is 22% of women in the #Ukrainian army – one of the highest rates in Europe. Now women can hold any position in the army in any branch of the military, including combat specialties. 5K 🇺🇦women are fighting on a frontline.
🎥 by @United24media 👇:https://t.co/6sgLZoclZ3 pic.twitter.com/o5JJtoW2Zf
— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) September 9, 2022
I’ve been meaning to post this for almost two months and keep forgetting, so you’re getting it tonight:
The song “Vrazhe” (Enemy) by Ukrainian singer Angy Kreyda is the latest musical weapon Ukraine has unleashed in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country.
Poetess Liudmyla Horova’s poem “Vrazhe”, written in the form of a witch spell against enemies, was published on the Internet on April 22.
The words went viral very quickly. It has been read aloud, set to music and translated into other languages, including Polish, English, German, Belarusian, and Georgian.
Now Angy Kreyda, a singer from the city of Rivne, has also recorded her version. And a little more than a month after its premiere, the music video has reached one million views on YouTube and has gone viral.
“This is a real ancient spell from enemies, and one tarot reader said that it must be listened to by everyone and spoken several times a day to bring our victory closer,” according to the words in the music video.
Other lyrics are:
“For Kremenchuk, for Bucha, for Irpin, for Mykolayiv, for Kharkiv, for Mariupol… For Ukraine.
“This is not a song, but a spell and a curse for the ‘orcs’ (sic, referring to Russian soldiers), let all this come true a thousand times, these are the words of every woman of Ukraine. Slava Ukraini (Glory to Ukraine), death to the enemy.
“This is women’s revenge against all marauders, rapists, murderers of people, children, parents, women and animals.”
Your daily Patron!
Today, the world reads the news with a blissful smile. I’m so proud of our soldiers!!! Glory to Ukraine. Glory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine🦾🔥Thank you, people, for your support❤️ @DefenceU pic.twitter.com/ZQyigLWkVR
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 11, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Секрет моєї сміливості❤️ #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні #славазсу
The caption translates as:
The secret of my courage ❤️ #dogPatron #PatronDSNS #Slava Ukraini #They are Celebreating
Open thread!
Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!)
As an arm chair weather watcher, I like looking at temperature and wind maps for all over the world using the Earth Winds website. Mainly looking at big picture things. So since the re-invasion of Ukraine started I have been checking on the weather in southern Ukraine, specifically the wind direction, to see what conditions there were like and then to consider which way radioactive particles would travel from a nuclear accident or even from a nuclear weapon if Russia/Putin is crazy/desperate enough to commit that kind of atrocity.
We have had a little respite from hearing much about the Zaporizhzhya NPP (Запорізька АЕС) for a few days, but I’ve been thinking about it and now with Russia’s retreat and the fear that Putin might do something crazy with tactical nukes I thought I’d share this with you all.
In mid-July the surface winds were westerly (blowing west to east) which I expect is the ore common situation at that latitude. Then they turned and were easterly (Blowing east to west) and would have carried any radioactive particles into western Ukraine and central Europe and I got a little more worried.
But now things are a little different. Surface winds are southwesterly (SW to NE) from a big surface low which is cutoff from the Jetstream and sitting over Belarus.
In this map of surface winds today, the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is about where the little green circle is so an accident there would carry radioactive particles away from most of Russia.
Winds at 7500’ (which is in the zone of easily mixing with surface air) the air is heading straight to the heart of Western Russia.
Jet Stream (steering winds) show that this surface low is stuck over the area of Poland/Belarus and Eastern Russia for at least a few days.
Altitude – pressure in hPa (hectoPascals) to feet (approx.)
1000 hPa = sea level
850 hPa = 7500 ft
250 hPa = jet stream steering winds
Frank Wilhoit
Adam,
Do you feel like saying anything (cautionary or otherwise) about the reports of cracks in Putin’s domestic support?
Sister Golden Bear
At this rate…
UA Military: “Mr. President, Kremlin is now liberated.”
Zelenskyy: “Crimea! I said Crimea!”
https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1568990010338152448
MagdaInBlack
Wow at that billboard. Just wow. ❤️
Villago Delenda Est
I must say that Zelenskyy giving his nightly address in a tshirt reminds me of unwinding on my couch after a day at the HQ after taking off my blouse (outer shirt, for you civilian types) and watching the news on the teevee. Very relaxed, very much still in charge. Military casual.
Darren
Does anybody understand the British DOD statement? 30% of the exports going to low and moderate income countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia sounds perfectly compatible with Putin”s statement to me. Where did the other 70% go?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I was almost overcome watching Zelenskyy’s address earlier. I mean, all of his addresses are moving or emotional in one way or another, but this one in particular, highlighting all the work and bravery and accomplishments of the fighters…it really got me.
Also, hell yes, ladies! Especially because I have a feeling that for a lot of russian men, getting their ass handed to them by a woman would be extra painful. GOOD.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Spanky
@Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!):
Yeah, same here, using windy.com. I can’t fathom it. It’s like Russia doesn’t care if it lights its own ass on fire.
Adam L Silverman
@Frank Wilhoit: I’m monitoring it. I think Putin will try to coup proof himself by giving the public a bunch of scapegoats. If I was the senior siloviki and military leadership, I’d be very worried right now.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Adam L Silverman: They might also want to start installing nets below the windows of any building more than three stories high.
Adam L Silverman
@Darren: Most likely a typo.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: This is why I have a one story house with no windows!
Bill Arnold
Those clips assembled by Julia Davis are like delicious chocolate cake. Propagandists falling apart live on state television.
Sergey Mironov (State Duma Deputy), wearing a half-swastika and saying there can be no negotiations with “Zelensky’s Nazi regime”. And people arguing with him.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
That fails if people start widely talking about it in that way.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Sounds like a bunker.
zhena gogolia
@Bill Arnold: I normally can’t stomach watching them but this is enjoyable. Who’s the ballsy guy who called it a colonial war? He’s like the Shep Smith of pervyi kanal?
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: One thing to watch is the Russian Telegram milbloggers. They’ve been allowed a free and open information space, because they are generally supportive of the war. But they are also very well-informed about conditions up front, and about the state of play, and at the moment they are nearly unanimously up in arms against Putin, Shoigu, and the way the war has been conducted.
This is the fiercest and most violent criticism of Putin in publically-accessible spaces in Russia right now, and it’s coming from people who are ex-military and/or well-connected to the military. It’s not going to sit well if it goes on for long. A shutdown or other attempt to censor or defang those Telegram channels, perhaps by arresting some milbloggers “to encourage the others” might be an outward sign of deteriorating relations between the siloviki and the military.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’m not authorized to confirm or deny anything at this time.
dmsilev
@Adam L Silverman: Of course, if you think you might be a potential scapegoat, that could incentivize you to take some action to preempt that.
The hypothetical “you”, of course.
Gin & Tonic
I thought this was part of Zelensky’s speech, but it seems to have just been a posting. But you need to read it: https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1569044030272454663?s=46&t=FsWWRXRCCqGw86mm3axn1w
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: I’m not suggesting it will. As I wrote here a long time ago: Putin will be strong and in control until he isn’t. Once he isn’t, things will move very fast. Of course we’ll also then have an unstable to failing nuclear weapon state. So we have that to look forward too!
counterfactual
@zhena gogolia: Dmitri of wartranslated.com says he’s trotted out to keep the news halfway connected to reality
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569084264506851328
Spanky
@Gin & Tonic: That’s all well and good, until the water rises.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Hey, I’m not an architecture or design critic. You do you.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: I have been. I’ve also posted that material here. As recently as last night.
Spanky
@Gin & Tonic: Talk about a man for his time …
Another Scott
@Darren:
Illinois.edu:
60/500 is 12%, at most.
VVP’s russia lies about everything. Don’t take anything they say at face value.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@zhena gogolia:
Don’t know. Good to see though.
That thread has two assemblages of video clips; the first one is interesting too. ETA oh you were referring to the first video.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: He’s an expert at strategic communication. It helps that he’s right.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: Hey, having a bunker is a necessary part of having a walled compound. As is the wall.
NutmegAgain
@Spanky: Well, re-watch the Chernobyl series and you can see how Russian (OK Soviet) management treated that disaster! They didn’t even want to evacuate their own people until they learned that Western European countries were freaking out and keeping the kids inside.
ian
@Darren:
Most of Ukraine’s agricultural products in past years have gone to EU or China
https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-04/Ukraine-Factsheet-April2022.pdf
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/ukraine-s-food-exports-by-the-numbers/
I haven’t been able to find any numbers that speak to %s of where the grain has gone this year. Ukraine seems to do fairly well in terms of sending grain to the UN
Don’t know if that answers your questions.
NutmegAgain
Our (formerly?) own Cheryl Rofer addresses the ‘might he/won’t he’ question of Putin and a nuclear attack, over at the Lawyers, Guns, & Money blog. … Hope I’m allowed to mention the competition :)
HinTN
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, indeed!
Also, this
while not surprising was amazing, nonetheless.
lowtechcyclist
So is Lyman in Ukrainian control, or what? Yesterday there was a lot of conflicting talk about that, and today I’ve seen nary a mention of it, until Chuck Pfarrer just now. And he uses the ‘sources indicate’ phraseology.
HinTN
@Gin & Tonic: Dayum, that’s not putting too fine a point on it at all!
HinTN
@Adam L Silverman: Once upon a time they had a professional military…
Carlo Graziani
One thing that I still find mystifying about Russian logistics in Ukraine is why are they running everything through Belgorod? As Pfarrer’s maps point out, now that the rail nodes at Izyum and Kupyansk have ben ripped out of the logistical supply network, all the Russian forces in the Donbas have been essentially demoted to “lightly-armed bystanders”. It would not be at all surprising to see a third offensive begin soon, with the Ukrainian forces that have been executing fighting retreats ever since the battles of Severodonetsk pushing the Rusdians all the way back, now that they can’t get shells anymore.
Was Belgorod really the only practical logistic hub? Where else can the Rusdians supply from? I mean, exactly how screwed are they?
HinTN
@Another Scott: They just wanted to export some fertilizer. No strategic thinking at all.
kalakal
@Spanky: In Florida the water’s already risen. All bunkers
haveaare an indoor swimming poolAdam L Silverman
@HinTN: Once upon a time we believed they did. Whether they actually did or not is a question that we may never be able to answer.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: One answer is that they just aren’t good at this and did not do appropriate contingency planning.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: I’d like to revise and extend my remarks…
ArgusMedia.com (from July):
Ukraine is not going to give up those markets if it doesn’t have to.
Ukraine exports a lot of food grains – tens of millions of tons. 60,000 tons is a tiny fraction and is obviously a cherry-picked number in a cherry-picked time period to try to make it look like Ukraine is the bad guy in the global food crisis. It doesn’t pass the smell test.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
CaseyL
@HinTN:
“Professional” as in, they get paid to do military stuff?
Or “professional” as in, they know what they’re doing?
When is the last time the Russian Army faced a well-trained and well-equipped fighting force? Afghanistan (and that was mostly thanks to the US, too)?
My understanding is that the Russian armed forces have mostly faced militias, at best.
HinTN
@Adam L Silverman: General Sir John Hackett certainly thought so and he persuaded me. You’re right, though. We will likely never know
ETA – CaseyL is also true
JAFD
@Another Scott:
The grain market is world wide, once a shipload of wheat or barley clears the Dardanelles, it can sail to wherever the owner says, or the price is highest.
HinTN
@JAFD: The word, fungible, comes to mind.
Dan B
@Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!): Interesting that the maps show latitude 47 which is the same as Seattle. That’s north of Ottowa, not a warm city in winter, or Spring. Paris is the same latitude as Vancouver, B.C. and kept warm from the Gulf Stream compared to countries far to the east.
Also the fallout will contaminate much of Russia’s dairy which is especially bad for children.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Bill Arnold:
@zhena gogolia:
@counterfactual:
I don’t know if it was just the translation or what, but he clearly called the “special operation” a war at one point according to the subtitles, too. That’s punishable with prison time. I’m surprised he wasn’t immediately dragged off the stage for that
Dan B
@Adam L Silverman: You forgot the smile 😃 and happy Geiger counter 😊 emojis.
You’re welcome 🙏
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Adam L Silverman: I’d have to hope I could grab onto the tree outside my windows. Considering my dismal hand-eye coordination, this would be unlikely.
Omnes Omnibus
@HinTN: Hackett knew his shit, but he retired from the British army in 1968 and wrote the Third World War in 1978. He didn’t know the Russian army, just the Soviet one.
Tarragon
I absolutely laughed out loud at Zelenskyy’s “Where your efforts cause fire and where the enemy violated the rules of fire safety”
West Coast Steve
MomSense
@Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!):
I feel a little less obsessive now that I know I’m not the only one doing this – not less worried though.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Tarragon: Yeah, I loved when he mentioned the “smoking is bad” jokes everyone makes whenever something in russia goes boom.
Another Scott
@JAFD: True, but I assume that just about every step of the way involves contracts. Buyer want 20,000 tons of wheat, signs contract with local supplier. Local supplier signs contract with Ukraine grain wholesaler and with shipping company. Shipping company reserves ship time and staff and makes sure that fuel is available for the trip. Etc., etc. I doubt that grain leaving Ukraine is not going to its contracted port.
In normal times, I assume that the Buyer would just sign a contract with the local grain wholesaler with their full local silos, but since the markets have been disrupted these aren’t normal times.
Just a guess though.
And, yes, the world market is important. Every million ton of grain out of Ukraine helps reduce grain prices everywhere. But low world prices is not the same as local availability, of course.
The big picture is: Ukraine is not the bad guy here.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
FWIW when landing with a standard round military parachute, you hit with about the same force as jumping off of a one story building. If you are above the second floor, you will get hurt even with a good parachute landing fall.
JAFD
@HinTN: True.
When I was young, read about the sailing ships, brought grain from Australia to Europe, back before WW II. They didn’t have radios, when they were sighted off the Scilly Isles, the owner would send a boat out of Falmouth to tell them where to deliver their cargo.
zhena gogolia
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The other guy said something like I have to warn you about your language, but it seemed as if “colonial” was what he was objecting to. But I’m sure the ground rules have all been agreed to in advance.
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): At least three of the dudes in that first clip very clearly use the word “war.”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@CaseyL:
Speaking of “professional”, I was struck by the behavior of the Russian commander of the “Akhmat” division that was being interviewed by state TV up above in the second video Julia Davis posted.
After being asked what was going on with Balakliya, he was like, “Honestly, I didn’t know Balakliya was the capital of Russia or that Kupyansk was turned into Russia’s capital. Who knows what they’re (the Ukrainians) are celebrating over there. Neither Balakliya, nor Kupyansk have any extraordinary importance for the allied forces. Nothing extraordinary has happened.”
Beyond what he’s saying being baldfaced lies, I was struck by how belittling and frankly unprofessional he sounded. I wouldn’t expect a modern American/NATO commander/officer being interviewed by the media to talk like this.
zhena gogolia
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The fish stinks from the head. Putler always talks in that snarky, snide way, so I’m sure it’s just emulating the head guy.
Grey Michael
@Carlo Graziani: From what I’ve read Russian logistics doctrine is to move the bulk of supplies by rail with truck convoys to take supplies from hubs, if you will, to various places at the front. Ukraine is beelining towards the hubs and the outlying occupied towns are collapsing due to an acute supply issue, coupled with fear of rapid encirclement.
Jinchi
@Darren: Putin claimed that only 60,000 of 2,000,000 tons of grain went from Ukraine to poorer countries. That’s 0.03% not 30%. So it’s completely inconsistent with the EU report.
He also said “If we exclude Turkey as an intermediary country, then almost all the grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to the poorest developing countries, but to European Union countries”.
Turkey is an “intermediary country” between Ukraine and Africa /Asia. Excluding it pretty much excludes everyone but the EU intermediaries, because the only alternative would be through Russia.
Putin lies. You don’t have to ponder whether he’s bulls**ting you or not.
Darren
@ian: thanks. I’m having a hard time finding actual numbers too. But if the 30% doesn’t include the UN program purchases that makes sense. You’d hope the MOD might check its tweets for basic coherence, but if you’re right at least Putin’s world record for consecutive lies won’t be interrupted. For a minute there I was quite worried.
kalakal
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Isn’t the Akhmat unit Chechen? Professional is not a word I’d use regarding them. They’re a bunch of psychos
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Omnes Omnibus: I don’t know if one is usually given a parachute when one is being defenestrated. I’m on the third floor and am as frail as an elderly cat with osteoporosis.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
That begs the question of why they’re apparently allowed to use it and not other people. It blatantly violates the whole “special operation” figleaf propaganda pushed by the Kremlin
@zhena gogolia:
That’s a good point and this is blatant state propaganda intended for Russian consumption. Still, it’s interesting to me. We (and much of the rest of the world) expect our military leadership to be well-trained/educated, reasonably well-spoken professionals who don’t talk like arrogant assholes like this dickhead
Darren
@Darren: thanks to Jinchi also. My world view remains intact….
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: May I ask what the text on this Patron tote bag reads? Google translate gave me something weird, but I’m thinking it’s something like “No mines. Checked.” I was thinking of ordering it for a friend but want to be able to tell her what it says, LOL. Thank you!
Jager
Zelensky gets this ancient ground pounder excited. The guy is a leader. After all, he’s been through, he’d rip trump a new ass over the phone.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Jager: I almost wonder if he wishes he could call him up now and be like “Oh yeah by the way, go absolutely fuck yourself, you two-bit grifting shitbag.” Or maybe someone could lure Trump to Kyiv and Zelenskyy could pummel him. Trump’s already old and fat and Ze looks like he’s Hulked up since February.
Anoniminous
@Carlo Graziani:
Russian logistics are rail bound. The usual figure is their vehicle transport is limited to ~90 miles (145 km.) War on the Rocks wrote an analysis last November.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@kalakal:
I think you’re correct about that. I looked him up, his name is Apti Alaudinov and his division is from Chechnya. By all accounts, he’s a piece of shit:
He was also earlier last month awarded the title “Hero of Russia”. So, he’s a true believer and explains a lot
Gin & Tonic
@MagdaInBlack: The lines on that billboard are an excerpt from “Kavkaz” (i.e. Caucasus), a very explicitly anti-colonial poem by Shevchenko. That excerpt (it’s a long poem) is probably known by heart by every Ukrainian, especially the line “Борітеся – поборете” which is translated by Kaleniuk (I suspect quoting Vera Rich) as “Struggle on – and be triumphant,” but I prefer “Fight – and you will prevail.”
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Mike Flynn says “hi.”
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: You’re exactly right. Hang out here enough and you’ll learn Ukrainian by osmosis.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Well, Mike Flynn isn’t my or probably most other peoples’ ideal conception of a professional military leader tbf. Apti Alaudinov and Flynn are fascist psychopaths
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Speaking of being pummeled, I saw speculation in the Twitter replies that the Russian chief propagandist on that state TV panel above looked like he had some bruising on his face
Jinchi
I just saw an interview between Fareed Zakaria and Zelensky, entirely focused on what he would say to TFG to get him to understand that Vladimir Putin is evil. And my first thought was, this is what you’re wasting his time asking about?
I simply can’t understand why American reporters feel the need to pretend that TFG was just naive, instead of fully committed to the bastard. The guy praised every violent despot in the world. He dreamed of ruling the US like Kim Jong Un rules North Korea. He wondered why his generals weren’t totally loyal, like Hitler’s. He giddily praised Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February, and he tried to launch his own coup.
Stop acting like this guy GAF about Putin killing Ukrainians. It’s why he likes him.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: THanks for linking that! I saw it somewhere else and was hoping it was in the nightly address, but no matter.
Slava Ukraini.
May all the RF units surrender and LEAVE.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jinchi:
Zakaria is the same moron who said Trump “just became president” right after bombing Syria in early 2017. He lost all credibility after that.
Gin & Tonic
Daily life. Earlier this afternoon my dear wife was on FB messenger exchanging recipes with a friend in Ternopil (western Ukraine.) Suddenly her friend said “air raid sirens – gotta go.” That was it for the night.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks :) I’ve been learning it on Duolingo, although I find some of the app’s methods frustrating. Plus, I know my pronunciation is atrocious. But only my cat can hear me.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
I am likewise concerned about that aspect. It (instabilities in the Russian Federation) is an area where existing open-literature scholarly writings appear to my amateur eye to have very little predictive value.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I only wish I could’ve seen them being inflicted.
Andrya
@zhena gogolia: I think the guy you’re talking about (who called russia’s attack a “colonial war’) was historian Timothy Snyder. Snyder is a historian of eastern Europe at Yale. Here’s a link to this on YouTube: link.
Strange coincidence: Zelenskyy’s address yesterday mentioned that Snyder had met with him that day in Kyiv.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Bill Arnold:
AFAIK, it’s never really happened before. The major nuclear powers have, so far, been relatively politically stable. Even during the breakup of the USSR, there was a plan in place for the handling of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons that were based in other former Soviet Republics I think. Another reason to get rid of nuclear weapon
Though, paradoxically, if we somehow eliminated all nuclear weapons, wouldn’t warfare be more common (and destructive/deadly) without that deterrent?
kalakal
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): 👍
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yes, there was a plan, embodied in the Budapest Memorandum, when Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons and the USA and the russian federation in return assured Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity.
That worked well.
Bill Arnold
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
A lot of risk-reduction was done after the fall of the USSR. ETA your edited comment covers some of this; leaving the rest of my comment unedited.
E.g. the removal of the USSRs nuclear weapons from Ukraine in return for Russian guarantees of Ukrainian territorial integrity. (Similarly with some of the the USSR’s bioweapons work.)
As Cheryl Rofer has noted (and she did some related work), building and maintaining an independent Ukrainian nuclear force using those weapons or at least the fissionables in those weapons, would have been a major and ongoing-expensive effort, involving expertise that the Ukrainians did not have at the time. So it sort of made sense, though trusting the Russians turned out to be a bad idea 20 years later (2014).
zhena gogolia
@Andrya: No, that was not Timothy Snyder!!!
ETA: I know what Timothy Snyder looks like. He does not appear on Russian state television programs.
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya: No, it’s the first guy (Nadezhdin) in the clip in the first Julia Davis Tweet who calls it a “colonial war” and is reprimanded by one of the others a couple of minutes later.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Well, nobody at the time thought that Russia would turn into the fascist state that it did. It was the early 1990s. The “End of History” was supposed to be underway; and like the Cigarette Smoking Man said during a flashback when hearing the news of Gorbachev’s resignation in an episode of the X-Files, there were “no more enemies”
Besides, who’s to say that Ukraine keeping their nuclear weapons couldn’t have led to a regional nuclear exchange? Putin doesn’t seem to be playing with a full deck. Hell, them having nukes would make it more likely for Russia to try to keep control of the Ukrainian government like they had prior to 2014
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
I doubt seriously it has actually been a lot better for a long time. The upper crust employers in Russia seem to have been grifting off of the public works such as military production for a very long time. And the one seemingly reliable part of the country/vlad is that lying about most anything, anytime it benefits them in any way is completely normal. Look at what they’ve had to do after barging into Ukraine in the first place They sent in vehicles without fuel, men without supplies and once they found out that it wasn’t working they had to offer to hire 60 yr olds as part of their war effort. That isn’t the sign of a competent military or country. Upper management has seemingly been skimming off the top of every segment of their economy, rather massively. And that seems like very normal to most everyone. Expected and accepted as normal. And as that is seemingly the ideal to our conservative side of the aisle as well, it seems that we might have our explanation for that 4th of July that a number of our conservative politicians were in Moscow and how they support a guy who obviously cheats at everything he ever does.
zhena gogolia
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Nobody?
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Um, what now?
Nettoyeur
@Adam L Silverman: He went bankrupt in two ways, first slowly, then suddenly.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic:I’d guess Goku is referring to Yanukovych’s reign.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@zhena gogolia:
Well, maybe I shouldn’t have said “nobody”. But certainly it seems most people did not see it coming then. You can see this reflected in popular culture of the time. Harrison Ford’s Air Force One, released in 1997, kind of makes the Russian President character look buffoonish ala Yeltsin from what I remember. President Harrison Ford has to basically has to save the day:
Cue scene of the previously helpless Russians celebrating
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic:
I am also curious.
Lyrebird
There have been photos of plenty of other supply lines, like rail lines west from Novocherkassk. I don’t know. Kos and @Omnes Omnibus: among many others don’t have a high opinion of RU Army logistics. ETA and Ruckus and…
It’s also hard to do a good job as a mid-level planner when your higher ups are corrupt or can’t agree on basic facts or keep getting replaced. This is an all of em Katie situation.
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for a very haunting song! I guess that’s deliberate.
From another direction, a friend of mine who’s Catholic posted something about tomorrow being a big day for praying to Mary. I couldn’t follow all the references, but I think a lot of Ukrainians are Catholic, so I actually read the whole posting and tried to send any good to the people of Ukraine.
Martin
@Bill Arnold: Do the Russian people envision a better future without Putin? I don’t see many good opportunities for Russia either way.
Say what you will about the guy, he’s allowed the right people to steal the right quantity of stuff, and I doubt unceremoniously removing Putin preserves that. I don’t see why they would want him out.
Frankensteinbeck
@Ruckus:
I’m no expert, but I’m pretty sure it’s not just upper management. The Russian economy runs on graft. Their insurance fraud issues are mind-boggling, I know that.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Today I’ve been thinking about the super weapons that Putin was showing off a year or two ago, and how freaked out US media was by them.
I’m looking at Russian equipment racing for the border some of which was built before I was born – and I’m retired.
Bill Arnold
This is a very weird rumor.
Approximately, it would be (if true) asking corporations and oligarchs to become warlords.
Anyone have any further information? Seems at least partially false because October is way too close.
Bill Arnold
@Martin:
That is an impressive level of cynicism. Also, probably true.
gene108
@Darren:
BBC compared 60k tons of grain exports to 30% of Ukraine’s grain exports.
What percentage of Ukraine’s grain exports is 60k tons? What tonnage of Ukrainian grain exports is 30%? 🤷🤷♂️🤷♀️
Too lazy to look it up.
Anoniminous
Russian military reminds of the Lloyd George quip about the British High Command in World War 1:
“They keep one set of figures to lie to the public, one set of figures to lie to the government, and one set of figures to lie to themselves.”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Chetan Murthy was correct, I referencing Yanukovych. He was a Russian puppet, wasn’t he?
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
“Of course we’ll also then have an unstable to failing nuclear weapon state. So we have that to look forward too!”
We don’t have that now?
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: @Grey Michael: @Anoniminous: @Lyrebird:
Taking as read that nobody thinks highly of Rusdian logistical acumen; And that they are reliant on a railhead connected to a good road network for short-ish truck hauls to front-line units;
Are all supplies now fed in through Belgorod? That cannot be true for the Southern theatre, right? I see that there is a rail line on the Kerch Straits bridge, so presumably there’s a Crimean railhead doing logistical depot service.
Adam? Where would we find a list of Russian logistical depot railheads?
Wolvesvalley
I found a transcript and translation of that terrific song, Vrazhe.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Ah. Well I’ll let G&T weigh in on that.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
Even if he were foaming at the mouth and ranting and raving about starting a nuclear holocaust? I don’t think their plunder would matter much at that point
Bupalos
@Gin & Tonic: Saw that earlier, I’m dying to hear him speak it. This kind of simple recitation thing sounds so good in Ukrainian (or Russian,) he uses the cadence of the language to great effect.
Ruckus
@Frankensteinbeck:
A lot of top management of Russian companies are very wealthy billionaires. In a country where the supposed average wage is $20K/yr. There seems to be a bit of skimming off the top, the bottom and every where inbetween. Hell our last “president” was supposedly a billionaire, not worth anywhere near what he claimed but still, on paper a billionaire. Which boggles the mind, seeing as how he’s failed at every single thing he’s ever attempted, including being president, and possibly even being human.
Carlo Graziani
@Martin:
I’m reminded of an apocryphal popular joke to the effect that Russian peasants would always pray for the health of the Tsar, no matter how miserable he made their lives. They would do this because the Tsar’s great-grandfather was bad, and the Tsar’s grandfather was even worse, and the Tsar’s father was even more awful than either of them, and the current Tsar was a true monster, and heaven help them with the next Tsar, should this one die!
Mallard Filmore
Copied out of DailyKos:
Update—blurb from CNN http://www.cnn.com/...
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/11/2122278/-Russian-Un-invasion-Gains-Big-Mo-in-Luhansk
Citizen Alan
My god, has there ever been anyone in history to “rise to the occasion” in the manner of Zelenskyy?!? From doing a comedy bit where he pretended to play a piano with his genitals to becoming the 21st Century’s Winston Churchill in, what, six years? Less? Who could possibly play him in The Movie? When the story of this war goes to Hollywood, what actor could convincingly go from the depths of crass ridiculousness to the heights of gravitas like he has?!? And would anyone believe it if we hadn’t seen it with our own eyes?
Chetan Murthy
@Citizen Alan: If it happens soon enough, maybe with a little makeup, Zelenskiyy can play *himself*! Ha! OK, maybe not,
but wouldn’t that be sumthin’!
Bupalos
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): In a totalitarian state rules change constantly and instantly and everyone understands they aren’t meant to apply universally. That “law” is there as a tool for repression.
Dan B
@Citizen Alan: Zelensky has a law degree. His parents are professors. His IQ is probably genius but to me the impressive aspect of his presidency has been his emotionally pitch perfect performance as a regular Ukrainian. It inspires “regular” Ukrainians to work to his level.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Citizen Alan: I’ve often thought how amazing it would be to take some footage of him giving speeches, like to the UN or something, and the video on Independence Day where he was walking past all the burned up russian tanks, and that sort of thing…then go back in time to his Kvartal 95 days, before Servant of the People had even happened, and be like “Hey, man, check this out.” But then of course there’s the notion that if you show someone their future, you immediately change or erase it, so…even if I get that Delorean, it’ll have to remain a fantasy.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Dan B: I remember reading once where was saying that he didn’t grow up with a very strong Jewish identity (not surprising for having grown up in the Soviet Union), but I was like, my dude, you studied to be a lawyer and then instead became a comedian and then went into politics.. The only way you could be more Jewish is if after your political career is over, you decide to enroll in med school.
Bupalos
@Bill Arnold: Just responding in general to people treating the Russian propaganda circus they run on TV as if the people there believe what they are saying, or that this is some instance of dissent.
It’s not. There is nothing honest about these shows at all. These are essentially actors playing roles assigned to them. They are specifically designed to be confusing, to voice versions of opinions from all over the spectrum, operating on different assumptions that often conflict way down deep. The point is to make it look like there is a discussion going on and that something is being debated or considered. But it isn’t that at all, it’s a staging of a debate or discussion, designed to be emotional and confrontational, devolve into confusion, and have no outcome. Which usually has some overwhelming “spectacle” statement that kind of sweeps the confusion away and substitutes the solidity of state power. In that one, the whole thing is pretty clearly designed for the guy to say the line about people who panic getting shot.
frosty
@Citizen Alan: what actor could convincingly go from the depths of crass ridiculousness to the heights of gravitas like he has?!?
Jeff Daniels has done it. From Dumb and Dumber to playing Joshua Chamberlain in Gettysburg. Anyone else? I can’t think of one.
ETA The rest of your comment is spot on.
Sally
@JAFD: And the ships (clippers I believe they were – “raced through the water at a great clip”) raced to arrive first – to get the highest prices. For a fab read, try “The Last Grain Race” by Eric Newby.
Kent
@frosty: Jack Nicholson
Redshift
@zhena gogolia:
The way I understood it, the objection was that “colonial” meant they were conquering someone else’s territory, instead “liberating” their own, and that was something he shouldn’t be saying.
Andrya
@zhena gogolia: Sorry, I didn’t get clear reception on the russian TV thing, so I didn’t connect and wasn’t referring to it. Timothy Snyder did say “this is a colonial war” and the link I posted does look like Dr. Snyder.
Carlo Graziani
I found a very interesting journal article on Russian logistics in the Ukrainian war, published a few days ago in the Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies. Very readable. A few interesting takeaways:
Redshift
@Carlo Graziani: It’s been my understanding that the forces in the east are supplied through Belogorod (and maybe out of Belarus, though that may have only been when they were withdrawing from Kyiv to the east.) The forces in the south are supplied through Crimea. But that’s just from memory from a couple of month ago.
Redshift
I know it’s been discussed here before, but I’m always struck by how Russian propaganda channels look exactly like Fox and OAN.
kalakal
@frosty: Hugh Lawrie could. He’s superb at playing complete idiots as well as serious roles.
Also Rowan Atkinson. He’s famous for Mr Bean and other comedies but he did play the title role in a series of Maigret very well indeed, the bleak, stern, intimidating figure was light years away from his normal rubber faced stuff
Aussie Sheila
@Jinchi:
Yes I saw that interview as well. Fared Zakaria is the perfect Washington blob CW bot. The interview was painful to watch, in its US centric bloviating and its complete waste of time for the subject of the interview who is currently leading his countrymen and women in an existential struggle for their national life.
Honestly, I understand why Ze felt he had to do it, but it was a perfect incapsulation of the ‘apart from that Mrs Lincoln, what did you think of the play’.
He is truly awful.
Dan B
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I’m not sure since I don’t believe he played a doctor on TV. Dance instructor would be fun – doncha think?
Frankensteinbeck
@Carlo Graziani:
Ukraine is still playing the logistics denial game*. Every report I hear about Ukraine taking territory mentions a supply choke point they just took or are taking now. It has been clear for awhile that they spotted Russia’s soft underbelly and are tearing it apart.
*A very deadly, serious game that they have become masters at.
Chetan Murthy
What’s that saying? “Life comes at you fast”
Carlo Graziani
@Frankensteinbeck: What I’m trying to get a grip on is: where are all the Russian upstream logistic hubs.
Being more spectacularly incompetent than one would credit them with being even assuming spectacular incompetence, they do not appear to have many, and they’ve allowed Belgorod to be totally interdicted. Think about it for a moment: the theatre-wide supply hub is cut off from its theatre. And the Russians don’t appear to have made plans for a replacement, at least, none that are currently apparent.
And the only other one is a railhead in Crimea? Trying to check on this, but…
This would seem to me to bbe the strongest posdible argument for the US to hand over a few ATACMS munitions to Ukraine, on the strict understanding that they are only to be used to interdict that railway. This could be done ether by dropping the Kerch bridge, or by destroying the train depot at Dzhankoi. The former might be better, as it would probably create fewer casualties, and be harder to repair.
Torrey
@frosty: most good actors with any decent sort of range could manage it. To think of just a few, Michael Sheen, Tom Hiddleston, Patrick Page, Brian Cranston, David Tennant, Matt Smith, Sebastian Stan, Harry Lloyd, and the list goes on. (All too old now except Stan and Lloyd, I think, but I mention them to point out people who have the needed range.) The thing is that if an actor is trained on the stage, we don’t often get to see what he can do unless we attend plays where he’s performing.
Carlo Graziani
Noting a reference: This page at the University of Michigan has railroad maps from all over the world, including Russia, Ukraine (and, yes, Crimea’s rail map is part of Ukraine’s), and Belarus. A place called Rostov on Don is well-connected to the Russian rail net, and would have made a fine backup/alternate/subsidiary hub for their special operation. Glad nobody suggested it.
dr. luba
“Vrazhe” is a vocative form of of the word enemy (voroh); teh vocative case is used to directly address someone
The song “Vrazhe” (in the video)
I sow in your eyes
I sow against the night.
It will be for you, enemy,
As the Witch says.
As many rye grains as fell
on the holy soil
That many times
Will you, enemy, be killed.
As many times as the roosters, enemy,
Crow in the night,
That many days
You have left to live.
To God, godliness
To the enemy – hostility
It will be for you, enemy,
As the Witch says.
As many steps, enemy,
As you make in Ukraine –
That many of your kind
Will lie in the grave.
The dark evil eye
will be halfway around the world
It will be for you, enemy,
As the Witch says.
I will write a pysanka,
I will rock the cradle,
Your mother, enemy,
I will leave without children,
Your father, enemy
I will quiet with death
Your wife, enemy,
I will wither with shame.
To God, godliness
To the enemy – hostility
It will be for you, enemy,
As the Witch says.
I will sift grief
Through a fine sieve –
You will beg the Lord
For hell
But there won’t be, enemy
An easy death for you.
And even in death, enemy
You won’t find peace.
My word is clinging
My word is strong
It will be for you, enemy,
As the mother says.
It will be for you, enemy,
As the wife says.
It will be for you, enemy,
As the girl says.
It will be for you, enemy,
As the child says.
It will be for you, enemy,
As.
The.
Witch.
Says.
Ruckus
@Carlo Graziani:
As I alluded to up thread, the entirety of Russia is a finally honed grift. Most of the points of most successful economies have, if not clearly defined at least defined pivot points. Russia really seems to not have taken much effort to define the pivot points. A pivot point is where the 2 sides to an economy bend around each other. An example would be logistics for retail and the actual retail stores. Or the manufacturing side against the user side or the monetary side against the manufacturing side. Russia seems to have a command side and a user side and that’s about it. They don’t seem to want to have to think through the concepts of need, idea, order, payment, usage to arrive at a working economy. They seem to have demand from above and a not unreasonable response of fuck it. Now I am simplifying, quite a bit, because they do have just under half our population and they don’t seem to be all starving. But what they do have is an economy as if run exclusively by republicans.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Torrey: Okay, but the person would have to at least have a passing resemblance to him, as well.
piratedan
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: then I would nominate Jeremy Renner, if you’re looking for a good actor with a passing resemblance.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@piratedan: hmm, could work. He’s two inches taller than Ze, though, the other actors would all need to be six feet and up :)
Steeplejack
@Jinchi:
It’s 3%, not 0.03%.
PBK
@dr. luba: Thank you for this.
Carlo Graziani
@dr. luba: Wow.
And nobody has made a Russian version yet?
Bill Arnold
@Bupalos:
,
Thanks for that comment; that it is scripted “debate” drama should not be forgotten. Some of the state television propagandists, however, do appear to believe. Another aspect is that in these particular videos, there appears to be some improv leaking through; that is, that the state television part of the propaganda apparatus is struggling.
Torrey
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: You’re absolutely right. My list was focused merely on making the point that good actors have trained to manage a range. It’s what repertory acting–and stage training–is all about.
However, Hollywood is notoriously bad at such things. Jeff Daniels, while a brilliant actor, is, in my opinion, absolutely the wrong choice for the 5’7″, baritone, stutter-plagued Joshua Chamberlain. All I can think of is that someone thought Daniels looked vaguely like Chamberlain in profile. Around the eyebrows, or something.
That said, I do think there are excellent actors out there on the stage who would probably both look the part and easily manage the range.
Torrey
@dr. luba: Thank you for this translation. Amazing. And terrifying. Glad I’m not on the receiving end of that.
Wolvesvalley
@dr. luba: Your translation is far better than the one I found. Thank you for it, and for the grammatical explanation.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Torrey: Yeah, it’s funny how sometimes Hollywood seems to really try to get the actor to look as close to the subject as possible, and other times they’re like “fuck it, they’re both humans, close enough”
Bill Arnold
This is an engaging video. TL;DR all three anti-antiship-missile defense systems were down (one remaining rapidfire gun; could it have engaged the missiles?), and this was reported in a ship review a couple of weeks prior to the invasion. Also, damage control systems were degraded.
What sunk the Moskva?
(LazerPig, 23:43: link is to the title parts, but whole video is interesting.)
(One could speculate that the Ukrainians somehow acquired a copy or summary of the report. LazerPig does not. The incident is already full of wild speculations, and the Moskov was a big target.)