Yesterday, in response to the Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid, President Zelenskyy took to his telegraph channel and gave the Russians a piece of his mind. You can view the video here as I have no idea how to get a Telegram post to embed here. The English translation is below:
Even through the impenetrable darkness, Ukraine and the civilized world clearly see these terrorist acts.
Deliberate and cynical missile strikes on civilian critical infrastructure. No military facilities. Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy there are partial problems with power supply.Do you still think that we are “one people”?
Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions?
You really did not understand anything?
Don’t understand who we are? What are we for? What are we talking about?
Read our lips:
Without gas or without you? without you
Without light or without you? without you
Without water or without you? without you
Without food or without you? without you
Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your “friendship and brotherhood”.But history will put everything in its place.
And we will be with gas, light, water and food.. and WITHOUT you!
And here is his address from this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukrainians!
All Europeans!
And everyone in the world who believes that terror should have no place on earth.
Why is the biggest source of terror in the world – Russia – still able to wage this war? And why can it wage the war so cruelly and cynically? There is only one reason – insufficient pressure on Russia. The response to the terror of this state is insufficient.
Just look at what Russia can afford. No other terrorist has ever done this in history – so many things at once.
Radiation terror at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Six power units! The presence of Russian troops at the plant, constant Russian provocations and shelling of the plant’s territory alone put Ukraine and all of Europe on the brink of a radiation disaster.
Energy terror. Residents of many countries around the world are suffering due to the painful increase in prices for energy resources – for electricity, for heat. Russia does it deliberately. It deliberately destabilizes the gas market in Europe. With its strikes it deliberately limits our Ukrainian ability to export electricity to Europe. The export of electricity from Ukraine could alleviate the severity of the energy crisis in Europe in the same way that the export of our food relieves the severity of the food crisis in the world.
Hunger terror is a very cynical and completely deliberate tactic of Russia. And it is directed not just against poor countries, but specifically against those regions of the world from which a new inflow of refugees may come to Europe. Severe migrant crisis in Europe – this is the calculation of the terrorist state.
Fortunately, together with our partners, together with the UN, Turkey, we managed to achieve an export grain initiative. Russia was forced to unblock our ports. But now it is threatening a blockade again.
And how does the world react? There is still no official recognition of Russia as a state – sponsor of terrorism. Citizens of the terrorist state can still travel to Europe for vacation or shopping, they can still get European visas, and no one knows whether there are torturers or murderers among them who have just returned from the occupied territory of Ukraine. Until now, Russian propagandists can still work precisely in those countries of Africa, Asia, Latin America, Europe, which are threatened with the greatest chaos due to price and energy crises created by Russia. We are still forced to ask for help in protecting our skies from Russian missiles – after 200 days of full-scale war!
Yesterday and today, the Russian army struck the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians found themselves in the dark – without electricity. Houses, hospitals, schools, communal infrastructure… Russian missiles hit precisely those objects that have absolutely nothing to do with the infrastructure of the Armed Forces of our country.
On the one hand, this is a sign of the desperation of those who invented this war. This is how they react to the defeat of Russian troops in the Kharkiv region. They can’t do anything to our heroes on the battlefield, and that’s why Russia is directing its vile strikes against civilian infrastructure.
On the other hand, Russia is trying to prevent us from directing Ukraine’s capabilities in such a way as to stabilize the situation in Europe. Our electricity export is something that Russia is very afraid of right now. Because we can disrupt Russian plans to empty the pockets of Europeans this winter due to crazy energy prices.
We still need to strengthen our cooperation in order to overcome Russian terror. Russia must be designated a terrorist state. Strengthen sanctions – the eighth EU sanctions package is needed. Increase aid to Ukraine, and above all speed up the provision of air defense systems.
I am grateful to all the rescuers who fought the consequences of Russian missile strikes at energy facilities. Hundreds of settlements in several regions of Ukraine were cut off due to these strikes.
At the request of the Minister of Internal Affairs, today I would like to especially note the contribution to the stabilization of the situation of Major General of the Civil Protection Service Oleksandr Volobuyev, Colonel of the Civil Protection Service Oleksandr Mislavskyi, Senior Lieutenant of the Civil Protection Service Vitaliy Dzyabko, Ensign of the Civil Protection Service Denys Kostenko and fireman, Ensign Oleksandr Gulyi. Thank you. I am grateful to you and your colleagues!
The energy supply of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Poltava region, Sumy region, Kharkiv region and the city of Kharkiv was restored. But today there are new strikes at energy facilities. New blackouts in Kharkiv. And we must be aware that the meanness of Russian terrorists knows no bounds – they will try to make such a form of terror systematic.
On my behalf, the Prime Minister of Ukraine held a meeting today with the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Territories and Communities Development of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance and Naftogaz. A coordinating headquarters will be formed to quickly respond to all such manifestations of Russian terror. Funds will also be allocated for the restoration of damaged objects and for assistance to the de-occupied territories.
From the beginning of September until today, our warriors have already liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers of the territory of Ukraine – in the east and south. The movement of our troops continues.
I am thankful to the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, which has recovered from heavy fighting in the east and is advancing very bravely, very confidently in the south direction.
I am thankful to the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade for steadily moving forward despite everything – despite the features of the open terrain, despite the artillery of the occupiers.
I am thankful to the fighters of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade for the liberation of several settlements and very effective actions to neutralize the enemy’s activity. Guys, you are true heroes!
Separately, I want to thank our anti-aircraft fighters today. Yesterday, we all saw the consequences of the Russian strikes. But at the same time, most of the terrorists’ missiles were shot down. Nine of the twelve missiles were shot down. Seven missiles were shot down by warriors of the 138th Dnipro anti-aircraft missile brigade of the “East” air command, and two missiles were shot down by the sky defenders of the 96th Kyiv anti-aircraft missile brigade of the “Center” air command. Thank you, our defenders!
Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!
Thank you to everyone who is really ready to fight against Russian terror!
We bring victory closer every day.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today. Apparently the mappers got a long weekend…
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments on Izium and Kherson:
IZIUM/1430 UT 12 SEP/ Updated reports indicate that disorganized RU units are attempting to regroup around the village of Oskil. The bridge at that place has been interdicted. UKR maneuver elements will likely encircle these RU remnants by seizing the 0-211437 road behind them. pic.twitter.com/HiorFwb4mV
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 12, 2022
Perhaps the Russian soldiers in Kherson might want to take advantage of this:
Surrender cards are being distributed to 🇷🇺forces:
'Your ticket to a peaceful life. Show this card to a Ukrainian soldier – it will save your life and help you get back home'
On the back: a telegram chat & phone number they can contact 'to receive detailed support'.#Ukraine️ pic.twitter.com/sGFqZTiDyu
— WhereisRussiaToday (@WhereisRussia) September 12, 2022
Here’s the Russian view of their collapse in Kharkiv:
The map seen in the sitrep of the Russian Ministry of Defense shows that they have abandoned the entire territory of the Karkhiv Oblast west of the Oskol River. https://t.co/y2CYsNGAPg pic.twitter.com/5cPo0f4cxt
— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) September 11, 2022
The Ukrainian Air Force has reestablished significant control over their airspace.
As we reported, on September 11, around 8:30 p.m., 🇷🇺 launched missile strikes on the territory of 🇺🇦.
9 out of 12 missiles of the occupiers were destroyed by 🇺🇦 anti-aircraft missile units.
The video shows the combat operation of 🇺🇦 S-300PT anti-aircraft missile systems. pic.twitter.com/SfS8sHWCAi— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) September 12, 2022
There was a very large kaboom in Taganrog in Russia earlier today:
Witnesses in Rostov-on-Don, Azov, Taganrog, Novoshakhtinsk, Shakhty, Novocherkassk, Aksay, and Yeysk all reported hearing a powerful explosion. No comment from the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Rostov region thus far. https://t.co/diI0L25dUx
— Meduza in English (@meduza_en) September 12, 2022
Explosions in Taganrog, Russia pic.twitter.com/nuE3LZmbLZ
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) September 12, 2022
While a number of both trusted sources and pseudonymous accounts are attributing these explosions to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, let’s keep an open mind until better confirmation is reported.
Also, obligatory:
Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs has some very strong thoughts about what the NATO allies need to do for Ukraine:
Ukraine’s heroes have exceeded our expectations daily. Thanks to the inspiring leadership of @ZelenskyyUa, @DmytroKuleba, @oleksiireznikov and others the definition of impossible has been rewritten.
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) September 11, 2022
Ukraine has earnt nothing less than our full support in bringing Putin to justice for each and every crime he has committed. There can be no compromises, excuses or exceptions.
Ukraine has earnt nothing less than our full support in bringing Putin to justice for each and every crime he has committed. There can be no compromises, excuses or exceptions.
If we had armed Ukraine faster, thousands of homes would have remained standing. Thousands of lives would have been saved. Thousands more children would now be safe with their parents. We must recognise the fact that appeasement did nothing to protect them.
The people of Ukraine have done more than enough to earn our respect. We have been humbled by their achievements. Now we must help them end this war swiftly and forever. Here’s how:
1. All stockpiles of western advanced armaments (ATACMS, tanks, fighter jets) must be made available to Ukraine.
2. We must commit to creating and enforcing safe zones around the territories of nuclear power stations, so Putin cannot use them as a weapon.
3. Clear red lines must be drawn and the consequences for crossing them should be made very clear to Putin, so he is deterred from making any desperate last moves.
4. The ICC and others must be quickly sent to liberated territories to investigate the crimes committed there.
5. Fast-track integration of Ukraine into NATO and the EU.
No more westsplaining. No more dithering. No more negotiations with terrorists. Those who doubted Ukraine’s strength should be apologising. Ukraine defended us all, even when some didn’t believe they could succeed. Now is the time for us to show our deep gratitude.
On Saturday, Oleksii Resnikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, addressed the Yes Conference:
.@oleksiireznikov vows the offensive will continue: "We can move down on the map in the direction in Luhansk Oblast also, so it can help us to liberate the next territory."
— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) September 10, 2022
“The liberation of all our territories is significant and we are going to liberate all temporarily occupied territories.”
Says the ongoing counteroffensive was designed by the General Staff to be on two fronts, simultaneously: Kherson and Kharkiv. “That is their idea how to do it in the two directions.”
And throws a little shade: “We attack their ammunition, they fuel depots, their commanders, officers, etc., etc., we will cut their logistics. And after that they became weaker and weaker and weaker and, they will [become] run away army.”
On the southern front, @oleksiireznikovsays Ukrainian troops have re-captured about 400 km / 150 sq. mi.
.@oleksiireznikov confirms Kakhovka is one of the primary objectives of the southern counter-offensive, “because it’s a place with a fresh water [source] and we need to control it and we need to arrange the delivering to Ukrainians and not to the occupiers.”
.@oleksiireznikov confirms Ukrainians have not destroyed the bridges out of the city of Kherson in order to allow Russian forces to evacuate, but have fire control over the bridge with HIMARS, MLRS, and 155mm’s.
Reznikov also gave an interview to The Financial Times:
Ukraine needs to secure the vast territory it has recaptured from possible Russian counter-attack, the country’s defence minister has warned, as he said Kyiv’s lightning offensive had gone far “better than expected”.
The attack has routed the Kremlin’s forces, led to the recapture of 3,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory and prompted an unusual admission by Russia’s defence ministry that its troops had to retreat. On Monday morning, Ukraine was also restoring power services after Russian strikes had attacked the country’s infrastructure in retaliation.
“A counter-offensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” defence minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Financial Times, while cautioning: “Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years.”
More at the link!
I want to draw everyone’s attention to this specific snippet from an essay written by Phillips O’Brien published in The Atlantic:
To give their forces the best chance to succeed, the Ukrainians also seem to have built up a substantial, fast-moving strike force. Without allowing details of their preparations to leak out—Ukrainian sources have disclosed little if any information valuable to Russia—they seem to have constructed a number of specialized combat brigades with lighter, faster wheeled vehicles. This has allowed them a crucial mobility advantage over their enemy.
I’ve seen this idea bandied about a lot over the past several days. Specifically that while a lot of people – and you know who you are – were wondering in frustration where the Ukrainian military was given the announced operation to retake Kherson, the Ukrainians had managed to build the equivalent of a division or three of light mechanized infantry combined with armor and artillery. Which they are now using in Kharkiv and Kherson. While this certainly seems plausible based on what we’ve seen since the end of last week, we’ll have to wait for more and better reporting to know for sure.
That’s enough for tonight!
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Сир – то моя безмежна любов🤤 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption translates as:
Cheese is my boundless love🤤 #dogPatron #PatronDSNS #SlavaUkraini
Open thread!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I don’t really care who caused the kabooms in russia, I just like seeing and hearing them. Tick tock, motherfuckers.
I think Mr. Landsbergis is one of my new favorite people. “Westsplaining” is a very good word to use, and I appreciate the difficult point that had we armed Ukraine faster and more fully, a lot of death and destruction could have been avoided.
Regarding potentially fast-tracking the EU membership, is that a potentiality, or will it likely still take years? I know, or at least have read, that NATO is pretty much off the table for the nonce.
Thank you as always, Adam.
BretH
Adam, what do you make of Gonzalo Lira, “Coach Red Pill”? Is he just the shyster he appears or is there anything else to him? He certainly seems to spout a steady stream of Russian propaganda.
Albatrossity
Thanks for this, and hope for even better reports tomorrow!
Gin & Tonic
Is there a dog without a boundless love of cheese?
Anonymous At Work
New Sign that Your Invasion Went to Crap: SECOND YEAR IN A ROW that Ukrainians don’t have to pay taxes on military hardware, including tanks, abandoned on their property.
Carlo Graziani
If the kabooms are Ukrainian-made, that’s interesting. Rostov-on-Don is an obvious potential (and maybe actual?) railhead depot for Russian logistical supply, and we know that the Ukrainians are very interested in those. In fact, one way of reading their whole war effort, it’s now starting to become clear, is as a relentless attack on Russian logistics. The significance of the Kharkhiv operation, for example, is that it has severed Belgorod — the Eastern Ukraine theatre logistical depot — from the entire theatre that it is responsible for supplying.
Adam, I can’t find a list of Russian logistical rail depots analogous to Belgorod. I assume that there is a terminus in Crimea. Do you know of some resource that has them? They are such an obvious critical vulnerability that it seems very worth studying them closely.
Mike in NC
A joke going around that Putin’s invasion would have only been worse if he had put Trump in charge of it.
NutmegAgain
@Gin & Tonic: My last dog, Murphy, would have sold her grandmother for a piece of cheese. When she heard that deli wrapper crackle, it was all over.
dmsilev
@Mike in NC: The one I like is that the Russians generals have performed so badly that the GOP is going to start putting up statues to them throughout the South.
Gin & Tonic
@Mike in NC: Another one going around that Putin’s press office has announced that he won’t be attending Queen Elizabeth’s funeral but rather will be meeting her in person shortly.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The irony is that missile attack against the UKR power grid is one of the few times the Russians used their missiles against an actual military target, and it was done as pure cheep shot. What’s a matter Putin, ran out of school yards to shoot at?
I honestly can’t get past the feeling that all these explosions in Russia are mainly accidental, since “utter disregard for work place safety” seems to be how they roll there.
cain
@NutmegAgain: my ex-wife’s dog would perk up just hearing the word ‘cheese’. She’d tilt her head and look at us with mournful eyes – “cheese motherfucker, please!”
dmsilev
@NutmegAgain: The dog we had when I was a kid liked cheese, but absolutely adored a particular aged and smoked Gouda sold by a vendor at the local farmer’s market His favorite food, bar none. We used to tell people that he had a very refined palate.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic:
Good one!
Only if you feel like another language question:
Might another translation for “lip reading” above be “read my lips”?
Thanks to Adam for going to the source!
NutmegAgain
Regarding cheese: yeah, I was always puzzled by “cheese-eating-surrender-monkeys” since dogs are such avid cheese lovers, and surrender is so much the opposite of so much dog behavior…
Original post:
I encountered an ex-Airforce guy today at my spine doc’s office (he’s in a 2nd career as one of the PAs). I asked him if he and his military pals ever discussed what is going on in Ukraine. “No” he said, “and we’re spending an awful lot of money”. “Hmm,” said I. “I mean we have problems like the border,” says he. I didn’t want to cause a ruckus since my spine may be in his hands, ::cough::, so I just said, “infrastructure! green energy! etc” The conversation thankfully fizzled out. But it was my first encounter with a living breathing Know-Nothing on Ukraine. Disturbing.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: Yeah, I don’t know who did the English on that, but it is definitely “Read my/our lips.”
Elizabelle
I think dogs are pretty much all cheese weasels.
And Patron deserves a generous share.
Poptartacus
President Zelensky is a hero. The right man at the right place at the right time
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Hey thanks! That sure seemed like what he meant.
A war poem from a determined leader of a nation that en masse threw “giving up” out the window with some gherkins.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: The cadence of it is nice, too. “Without us” is “bez nas” – two short emphatic syllables, repeated at the end of each line. Reminds me of the video he shot in the first couple of days in Kyiv, walking around with his posse at night saying “we’re here.”
Adam L Silverman
@BretH: Never heard of him. I tried to avoid anyone talking about red pills.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: I will try to find the time to poke around this week and see if I can find anything,
piratedan
a question….
it appears that the strategy of attriting the RU forces has been successful and the training and supply logistically of the UA forces has helped them beat back the Russians… if they kick them out of all of the UA Oblasts and Crimea, do they stop or do they have to invade to get Putin or whoever may be running Russia to the table?
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Machine translation. I’ll fix it in a few minutes.
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: @Gin & Tonic: All fixed.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks, Adam.
dmsilev
@piratedan: A lot of the outside support for Ukraine will evaporate if they send any significant forces over the (pre 2014) border with Russia. Artillery strikes on logistics nodes or whatever, ok, but substantial ground forces no.
Another Scott
@piratedan: Given the stated aims of Ukraine – ((roughly) get off our land), I think moving onto russian territory would be a mistake. However, I think that lighting up any russian artillery, etc., that dared continuing to shell Ukraine would be fair game.
I guess we’ll know soon enough, the way things are going (while recognizing that war is not linear).
I don’t know how long Putin will be able to hang on after this is over, but I thought Assad was doomed about 10 years ago and he’s still there…
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@piratedan: Ukraine’s stated aim all along is a return to the 1991 borders. They have no interest in taking russian territory. And if they move across the border they immediately lose the moral high ground.
Adam L Silverman
@piratedan: I don’t see them crossing the border in any significant way. Long range strikes to degrade and reduce Russian military targets, maybe as needed.
Fake Irishman
@Lyrebird:
… and took out several Russian drones when they tossed them out the window.
Gin & Tonic
@Fake Irishman: In the interest of accuracy, the drone was taken out by a jar of pickled tomatoes, not cucumbers.
Fake Irishman
@Gin & Tonic:
Right. One of the most notable things about this war is how well Ukraine has handled the political aspects of this war. invading Russia is a bad idea logistically even if Ukraine had double or triple the troops and equipment but the political aspect is critical here.
Lyrebird
@Fake Irishman:
:-D
@Gin & Tonic:
Shucks, I knew I would get it wrong, but clearly you all got the reference anyhow!
Slava Ukraini!
The Pale Scot
Russia says it has suspended the movement of untrained, ill equipped cannon fodder, So:
The UAK troops are masters at small unit actions, that they did this with little air support and few tanks, WOW. Intercepted RU phone calls describe them slipping past checkpoints, attacking the orcs from behind, orcs running to where they think they will be safe only to find more UAK waiting for them. Someone knows the terrain 5×5, and it ain’t the Russians. Not as masterful as PVA) 9th Army in 53, But at least MacArthur could say he didn’t have satellite coverage. Sneaking up in open country on someone who has access to satellite pics is not suppose to happen
Tricksey
HobbitsUkrainians!Russians have never heard of maintenance, in the old days they’d just shoot people until they found one with willing to come to work sober.
Ex. The big new show piece Ferris wheel erected in Moscow for Moscow Day broke down shortly after it got loaded. And this video of an Su-35 making a rough landing. IMHO when it pulled a low G turn the fuel pumps or fuel lines failed, you can see when the 60’s era smoke trail disappears. Apparently the ejection seats don’t work either.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1569304745537306628?cxt=HHwWiICw4b-WpccrAAAA
Sad
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: Sounded to my Russophone ears like “Vse my tut,” but I’m sure the Ukrainian was somewhat different.
Bupalos
@Gin & Tonic: ukraine cannot lose the relative moral high ground without torturing children or something. Driving to moscow and leveling the Kremlin would be absolutely fair game if it were possible.
They can’t do it (though I’m loathe to pick something impossible they can’t do since they’re akready doing the impossible.) And they would lose support, so of course they shouldn’t do it. But it wouldn’t be because of morals. Fully embarassing and prostrating this criminal regime and splattering bits of Putin onto the streets of Moscow would be a service to humanity and to a free Russia.
zhena gogolia
@The Pale Scot: Someone made an excellent joke here the other day that amounted to, Putler wanted the Ferris wheel so he could do Orson Welles’s speech from The Third Man.
Grumpy Old Railroader
@piratedan:
As others have noted, Ukraine has clear goals to stop at the border and if they did invade they will become the bad guys which then proves Putin’s claims. They could still take out targets in Russia without invading.
Lastly, there is a group (Brigade? Battalion?) of Russians fighting for Ukraine. I’m sure Ukraine would look the other way if said group began an internal civil war within Russia. Same with the Belarus soldiers fighting in Ukraine. Pure speculation by me.
Fake Irishman
@Gin & Tonic:
Good point. I’m sure the research division at RPC Fort is working on developing munitions using pickled cucumbers, beets, onions etc. Maybe they can develop some delivery systems that can deploy some specialized US produced variants (like Okra)
Fake Irishman
@Gin & Tonic:
Also, hope your family in-country is breathing a bit easier now than they have been.
dww44
@NutmegAgain: not surprising to me. My anecdotal experience ( there’s a large AFB and thriving community the next county over) is the Air Force may be the most politically conservative of all the branches. The county is totally Republican governed and went big for Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
Another Scott
(via Angry_Staffer)
Cheers,
Scott.
Wapiti
I do wonder if those Surrender Card URLs go directly to the UA targeting cells, so the RU phone locations can be harvested.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic:
Wait, you meant “Without you“, right?
Kent
Ukraine won’t have to invade Russia.
If Ukraine manages to drive Russian forces back to the pre-2014 borders it will mean the Russian military is utterly defeated and a wreck of its former self. All the Ukrainians will have to do is sit back and watch as Russia disintegrates from within as separatist and independence movements crop up all across Russia from the Caucuses to Siberia.
Just look at what is happening today in Armenia as the Azerbaijanis no longer fear Russia. Russia has a hundred other places across the empire that are only being held together by Russian armed forces.
Martin
Taganrog, eh? Someone has circled Mariupol on a map.
Martin
@Bupalos: No, the west will not support that. Ukraine needs to stop at the border or NATO will completely abandon them.
Russia may not have rules, but we do.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: It has been very impressive to note how very restrained the Ukrainian responses have been to the very severe provocations that they have received, and continue to receive daily. It would be only natural to wish to turn out the lights for civilians in Belgorod — which I think it’s possible the SOF could do — so that they may experience what the civilians in Kharkhiv are going through. Or to make some happy tourists in Crimea experience a few real horrors of war, to balance those that have been visited on millions of Ukrainian civilians. And I have to admit having had a few such angry thoughts myself, and sometimes worse.
But the Ukrainian government doesn’t think that way. Unlike the Russians, it doesn’t allow rage to control it’s calculations. It also understands war as communication strategy, and knows that its real “audience” is not in Russia. This self-control may be killing them every time the Russians commit a new outrage, but in my opinion it is one of their most effective weapons in this war.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: I would think that it’s not a question of rules: an aggressor can be pursued by their victim until the aggressor yields unconditionally (as we did in WWII). Rather, we have red lines, b/c we don’t want to trigger a nuclear war. And that’s all it amounts to.
If Russia weren’t a nuke-armed power, why *wouldn’t* UA be in their rights (again, I’m not saying it’s wise) to take Putin’s regime apart, root-and-branch?
Elizabelle
OT. LOL. Which of these headlines is more informative?
NY Times:
Bezos’ Rocket Crashes; No People Were Aboard
The capsule carrying experiments escaped damage. The F.A.A. is investigating the mishap.
WaPost (owned by guess who?):
Blue Origin rocket suffers problem during uncrewed launch
No people were on board as the capsule’s emergency abort system kicked in to jettison it away from the booster
Suffers problem. Uh huh.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Mike in NC:
@dmsilev:
@Gin & Tonic:
Those are all really good lol
frosty
@Fake Irishman: Invading Russia is not only a mistake logistically and politically, it is a mistake militarily. It would give the Russian public and army a reason to fight, protecting the Motherland. It didn’t work out well for Napoleon or the Germans.
Kent
The Ukrainians won’t have to take Putin’s regime apart. The Russians will do it for them.
Lyrebird
Maybe. It’s the start of a rail supply line for Donetsk.
Elizabelle
Here’s the lede from NY Times writer Kenneth Chang. Very nicely done; lot of information.
Chetan Murthy
@Kent: Yet more reasons why invading Russia would not be *wise*. And I have great trust that UA leadership are wise. I’m just noting that in terms of “right and wrong”, in terms of “justice”, UA is fully entitled to pursue these bastards until they surrender unconditionally. Of course, that might not be the best way to get a good outcome, long-term. And I kinda think that that’s right. Much better to encourage Russia to fall apart internally, and for that, you want to avoid giving them an external enemy to unite against.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
What exactly does the Lithuanian Foreign Minister mean by “unconditional surrender”? Or “westsplaining”?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Kent:
Fuck, at this point, it seems like Putin will do it for them.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think the former was just hyperbole. He probably means that Putin needs to GTFO UA and agree to sizable reparations. The latter: well, there have been a lotta people to lay back and think of England while they’re getting beaten to death, right? My own reading is that he’s chiding France & Germany (and others) for their “Putin has to have a way out that’s not shaming” and shit like that.
Carlo Graziani
Michael Kofman was on today’s War on the Rocks podcast. His estimate was that Ukraine had fielded “four or five battalions” in their Kharkhiv oblast offensive, which I guess is about a division’s worth.
I was a little annoyed at how breezily he spoke about Ukraine’s “manpower advantage” today, when I have a very distinct recollection that at the time of the Severodonetsk battle he was unloading scholarly treatises about Russia’s force structure and manpower issues, and casually discussing Ukraine’s manpower as if it was just a mirror of Russia’s. At the time I was trying to learn everything I could about Ukraine’s conscription and active reserve system, which was nothing like Russia’s mostly contract-term army and this view struck me as odd. I guess he changed it quietly…
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I can’t claim to read the guy’s mind, but I would assume “unconditional surrender” by Putin means he pulls his minions out of Ukraine, never sets a foot back on their land, and makes no demands in order to do so. And “westsplaining” to me read as people in the West–including thought certainly not limited to the US–trying to tell Ukraine–Zelenskyy, the Armed Forces, et al–how and what to do, when to do it, and so on. Articles that came out early in the reinvasion trying to nudge Zelenskyy into “negotiations” or appeasement of Putin. That kind of shit.
Tony G
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: “We pretend to stay sober on the job, and they pretend to pay us.”
Feathers
Hedgehog doing more to slow down Ukrainian offense than Russian tanks.
Tony G
@Chetan Murthy: Russia in its current borders has never been successfully invaded. Napoleon tried in 1812 and Hitler tried in 1941, both times with catastrophic results. If, hopefully, Ukraine is able to chase every Russian soldier out of its borders, that will be victory enough.
kalakal
@Tony G: “They don’t pay us very much, we don’t work very much”
Carlo Graziani
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The Baltic Republics, Poland, the Czech Republic, and other survivors of the Warsaw Pact have not been entirely pleased with the passive and not-terribly-alarmed way that some of the principal NATO nations have treated Russian behavior over the course of the past decade, especially since the Crimean conquest. They have been rather incensed that their efforts to sound the alarm have been dismissed by the French and, especially, the Germans, as needlessly panicked squawking over nothing. They obviously regard such attitudes as self-satisfied, self-serving, and corrupt, and responsible for having endangered the alliance. Now that the moment has shown those warnings to have been correct, they are dispensing with diplomatic niceties. Hence “Westsplaining”.
ETA:Alison’s take on the word is a usage that I’ve also heard.
Bupalos
@Martin: I’m well aware that they have to stop. And that it’s not possible anyway.
But in this counterfactual, they would still have the moral high ground. Russia being expelled isn’t actually justice, any more than if someone came in your house and murdered your kids you’d lose the moral high ground if you went beyond forcing them to leave.
kalakal
@Tony G: Germany says Hi from 1914-17
Tony G
@kalakal: Yup, another variation on that theme. I heard that joke for the first time back in the eighties when a boatload of (very good) IT people came to New York City from the Soviet Union (a development something to do with detente during the late stages of the Cold War). Of course, the joke was quickly re-directed towards the American IT management.
Quiltingfool
@cain: My cat always responded to the word “cheese.” She could be sleeping, and those eyes would pop open wide when she heard that word. Then she would get a small piece of cheese, of course!
Tony G
@BretH: Apparently chicks really dig middle-aged guys who are toadies for Russian war criminals. That’s how to become a real pick-up artist!
Tony G
@Carlo Graziani: John Mearsheimer, briefly famous about six months ago, seems to have been the Elvis Presley of “westplaining”. I suspect that he’ll soon be retiring to spend more time with his handlers.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: The Germans have, for reasons that nobody appears willing to state clearly in the presence of a jounalist or a live microphone, not turned over almost any of the weapons that they promised to Ukraine in that first flush of enthusiasm back in March/April. This is a bit of a scandal, because despite the sorry state of the Landwehr, the German arms industry is one of the finest and most productive in the world. The French aren’t exctly auditioning for the part of Junior Arsenal Of Democracy either.
I think this screed was part of an effort to embarrass them into at leat being part of the finale.
Bill Arnold
This is an engaging video. TL;DR all three anti-antiship-missile defense systems were down (one remaining rapidfire gun; could it have engaged the missiles?), and this was reported in a ship review a couple of weeks prior to the invasion. Also, damage control systems were degraded.
What sunk the Moskva?
(LazerPig, 23:43: link is to the title parts, but whole video is interesting.)
(One could speculate that the Ukrainians somehow acquired a copy or summary of the report. LazerPig does not. The incident is already full of wild speculations, and the Moskov was a big target.)
Tony G
@kalakal: Yeah, you’re right. Overlooked that “minor world war”. Well, one out of three times was successful.
lexilis
The video above showing explosions at Taganrog is actually from the attack on the airbase in Crimea a couple of weeks ago. Something DID happen at Taganrog but not that. Some more detail over at DKos update.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: They might be in their rights, but not with NATO weapons. And probably say goodbye to joining NATO.
Kent
I always thought that was a WW2 reference to the French.
kalakal
@Tony G: lol!
Montgomery used to tell Sandhurst students
Mallard Filmore
Russia has more problems on its borders.
YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bImlxOZsR7Y
title: “Breaking News: Armenia asks Russia and the CSTO for military aid!”
Azerbaijan must be on the warpath, and has Turkey backing them. The blogger figures if RU cannot help Armenia, most of the ‘Stans will turn toward China.
—
Russia sez: I would send you aid but I left most of them in Ukraine.
NutmegAgain
@Tony G: A most excellent and pioneering graph of Napoleon’s army coming and going. It’s published in the wonderful series of graphical presentation of information by Ed Tufte, but this link will show you the Napoleon fiasco. (map by Charles Joseph Minard, 1861).
Calouste
@kalakal: The Eastern Front in WWI didn’t get further east than what is now western Belarus and Ukraine. It never got close to what is now Russia.
NutmegAgain
@Kent: I think it was a Bush II era reference to the French; no idea if it was used earlier. To expand my thinking so that it fully strains credulity: How could “cheese-eating” anything be an insult or a drawback, when we know that dogs–wonderful companions, sometime soul balm, exercise friends, and all around pals–well they mostly just love cheese. So it makes no sense that it’s an insult.
A whole lot of late-night explaining for a teeny-tiny point with very little relevance to anything!
NutmegAgain
@kalakal: Don’t forget the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05. Fought over Manchuria (ehhhh? ) and what’s now Korea… (wars over other countries/territories)
Why yes I have been reading Christopher Clark’s amazing book, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe went to war in 1914. Highly recommended.
Roger Moore
@NutmegAgain:
“Cheese-eating surrender monkeys” was originally from Groundskeeper Willie from The Simpsons. It was a gratuitously over-the-top insult from an over-the-top character. It was taken up by the same people who wanted to rename French fries “Freedom fries”, and for the same reason.
Cameron
I know the question has probably been asked, and I’m late to the party, but…..what’s happened to the Russian AF? Supposedly they were running tons of sorties every day and now nothing?
Anoniminous
According to War Translated:
In short, Russia is on the tip of becoming a Failed State, devolving to feudalism and Warlordism.
Marc
I was an “IT” project manager in Boston during the 80s. The boatload of IT people (and another readily transferrable skill, medical doctors) mostly came to the US from the Soviet Union by way of Israel, as they were Jewish. It’s a complicated story, but see the Wikipedia entry on the Jackson–Vanik amendment for some background. And, yes, I did hear that joke back then.
RaflW
13 Sept UK defense update just posted about 6 a.m London time, midnight MN time. It’s a doozy!
Conclusion: “With 1st Guards Tank Army and other Western Military District formations severely degraded, Russia’s conventional force designed to counter NATO is severely weakened. It will likely take years for Russia to rebuild this capacity.” (emphasis added)
But it sort of fits with Adam’s recent worries that a cornered and out-of-options Putin might do very rash and dangerous-to-all-of-humanity things. Ugh.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/flawed-but-commendable-germanys.html
Anoniminous
@Cameron:
Sending fighter/bombers into the environment of a modern Integrated Air Defense System is a great way to lose a lot of fighter/bombers for no appreciable gain.
Chetan Murthy
Jager
@kalakal: In the Brezhnev days it went: ‘They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.”
West of the Rockies
@Chetan Murthy:
Oh, wouldn’t it be lovely to see it in rubble?
Chetan Murthy
@West of the Rockies: Thing is, even if the US’ conditions of use would allow it, I’m sure UA AF wouldn’t do it: what military value does wrecking Putin’s mansion have, compared to taking out an ammo dump, after all.
bjacques
@West of the Rockies: alas, a civilian target, so out of bounds. Local initiative, on the other hand…
Villago Delenda Est
@Carlo Graziani:
“Four or five battalions” is perhaps a brigade and a half. Divisions have three maneuver brigades, a brigade equivalent of artillery, and a number of additional support units, all told probably two brigade equivalents of those support outfits, doing things like comms, air defense, engineers, and beans/bullets/repair units.
Frankensteinbeck
@Anoniminous:
With what men and equipment? They don’t have access to anything Putin doesn’t.
Redshift
@Carlo Graziani:
No doubt this is one of the reasons Zelenskyy constantly mentions how they are gathering evidence everywhere and will bring all the war criminals to justice. Having trained and disciplined armed forces is essential, but I’m sure it’s easier to restrain the urge for revenge if they’re also assured that the monsters will more go unpunished.
Villago Delenda Est
@Tony G: The way you invade Russia is to be Mongols using frozen rivers to move their horse mounted forces west to Moscow.
Jay
@Frankensteinbeck:
there was a “thing” about a month ago, where regional groups were supposed to raise, arm and train up forces. Some managed a Company, some a Brigaide. None of them deployed.
In the beginning, the Seperatist Militias were armed and funded by pro Russian Ukranian Ogliarches.
dr. luba
@Gin & Tonic: Wouldn’t that be “bez vas” (без Вас)–“without you”?
evodevo
@Cameron: Yes. this…how did the UA suddenly develop air superiority enough to make runs over Kherson? Destruction of Russian radar emplacements?
Geminid
@evodevo: The US has been providing HARM (sp?) missiles that can be launched by Ukraine’s warplanes to home in on and destroy radar units. And now Ukrainian air defenses are effective enough that Russian pilots balk at flying missions against Ukrainian targets. A kind of passive mutiny that has spread throughout Russian forces.
Shalimar
@Cameron: Ukraine has been getting pieces of an air defense system from the US for months now, so I suspect Russian air sorties have been going down over time without attracting a lot of attention. Those pieces seem to have finally reached critical mass to allow Ukraine local air dominance where they want it
edit: Also, what Geminid said. And it isn’t that Russians weren’t trying. There have been a lot of planes and helicopters shot down over Kherson the last week.
evodevo
@Shalimar: Glad to hear it…
Geminid
From the Jerusalem Post:
Mr. Pechorin was Managing Director of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation. A few days before his death, Pechorin attended the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, hosted by V. Putin.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: Not a window. At least we’re getting a little variety.
Gin & Tonic
@dr. luba: You (and Carlo) are correct, of course. Late -night brain fart, I guess. But still the same rhythmic cadence.
Gin & Tonic
@dr. luba: You (and Carlo) are correct, of course. Late -night brain fart, I guess. But still the same rhythmic cadence.
Gin & Tonic
Sorry for the dupe. Time for coffee.
Geminid
@Shalimar: I was thinking more of flying missions over Ukrainian held territory. Now it seems that Russia relies on missiles exclusively for strikes far into Ukraine.
If Russian helicopters and warplanes keep getting shot down pilots could stop flying over contested areas too.
Gin & Tonic
Very strong Ukrainian statement about Germany today: https://twitter.com/dmytrokuleba/status/1569637880204775426?s=46&t=_v0yiFqKXRuBwwnC9ZUW_Q
kalakal
@Calouste: Pretty sure the Germans got a bit further than Ukraine in the South. They went a fair bit east of Rostov on Don.
RAM
As this war has progressed I’ve been trying to get my head around exactly what the Russian Army is and I’ve come to the conclusion it’s more a loose grouping of gangs than an actual military force better structured to suppress and harass civilians than organized militaries of other nations. The troops, while ostensibly members of regular Russian military formations all seem to be contract mercenaries and not soldiers oath-sworn to their nations as we normally think of them. And then there are the out-and-out mercenaries such as Wagner used to reinforce the ‘regular’ Russian units. There seems to be no training involved as with traditional militaries, muddled or totally absent chains of command, and no overall command structure. The Russian Army seems less a modern military than hearkening back to the late Roman Empire when the legions were comprised of a mixture of conquered peoples reinforced by other subject nations’ contract troops. It seems a very strange way to run a 21st Century military, one that simply isn’t working in a conflict against a tech-savvy, well armed, equipped, and organized opponent.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic:
Dang.
Gin & Tonic
I’m sure this will be in Adam’s update tonight, but this is just stunning news:
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Is there a russian version of the phrase “fuck around and find out”?