New Balloon Juice thermometer: Make your case if any of these shouldn’t be on here, or if someone else should be.
All of the targeted fundraising thermometers for this fall are in the sidebar, and right here:
Targeted Fundraising Thermometers
Winnable House Races Purple Districts
Elaine Luria, Marcy Kaptur, Sharice Davids, Gabe Vasquez
West of the Rockies
I sure wish CA 1 could replace the human shit-stain Doug LaMalfa.
H.E.Wolf
WA-03 (Southwest WA) is purple-ish, and is an open US House seat. The Republican incumbent lost the primary to an election-denying MAGAt.
The Democratic candidate is Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez. She and her husband own an auto-repair shop. Her campaign website is here: https://marieforcongress.com/
H.E.Wolf
PS: Thank you to WaterGirl (and recommenders) for the 4 candidates mentioned up top!
Joy in FL
small donation made, small so I can donate multiple times : )
rikyrah
Thank you
Mathguy
NE-2 with Tony Vargas could be included here. Bacon is your bog standard GOP turd (and dumb as a box of rocks, according to a friend that knows him) and the race is rated a toss-up by Cook’s political report.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: How is it polling? In keeping with the strategic and targeted approach we are trying to take this year, I think we’ll want races that are close but winnable, where a boost could make the difference.
Wondering if that description fits that race?
WaterGirl
@Mathguy: I don’t think we want to include all the toss-up races in the Cook report.
Tell me more about this candidate and the race? Is this a seat that we hold now that is at risk? A red-to-blue seat? Incumbent? No incumbent?
bbleh
At ONE STROKE I have MORE THAN TRIPLED the total! I am a GOD of teeny-tiny numbers!
RaflW
I worry that Angie Craig MN-02 isn’t getting enough attention. She’s in her second term, which usually is pretty safe. But as an out lesbian in a relatively conservative suburban zone (only D+1 (or even PVI depending on who you ask)), I’d say that Cook’s “tossup Dem” rating is sadly credible.
Compounding my concern is that a recent poll has Walz (D incumbent gov.) running away against a total turd Repub. If that expected victory depresses turnout, Angie could be on the bubble. I cannot tolerate the idea that our state, despite voting for every Dem for potus for decades, might have a 5-3 R/D House delegation if Craig loses! Ouch. (There’s a tiny chance MN-01 could flip blue, but really slim. I’m really rooting for -and donating monthly to- Jen Schultz in MN-08, but she’s a longshot. The other R districts are much tougher (and the other D seats are safe).
So, long story short: Maybe add Angie Craig, MN-02 – or if folks feel willing, go direct? I have!!
Gravie
OregonCD5, a new district, pits Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a true progressive with rural roots, experience in international humanitarian work, and immense personal integrity, against Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a dead-eyed opportunist who espouses MAGA views. Jamie has built a great grass-roots campaign that was instrumental in her surprise primary win over Dem incumbent Doug Schrader. This is a winnable race although it may be close.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
In OR-5, we finally primaried odious DINO Kurt Schreader. Now we have to elect awesome Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and keep the seat blue!
But it’s going to be a close race, and Jamie needs our support.
WaterGirl
@bbleh:
That made me laugh out loud! You are very powerful, indeed.
edit: I’m still laughing.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Gravie: Go Jamie!
WaterGirl
@Gravie: Intruiging.
So the incumbent was a democrat. What was he like? Blue dog? What is the district like? A place where someone more progressive can win? Or a more conservative district that is less likely to elect a more progressive candidate?
WaterGirl
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I have the same questions I asked Gravie.
What is the district like? A place where someone more progressive can win? Or a more conservative district that is less likely to elect a more progressive candidate?
RaflW
Also really, really gonna plug Yadira Caraveo in CO-08. The newly added district as CO hit the census bonus mark.
Whatever gets decided, my sincere thanks to Water Girl and all the Juice givers!!
WaterGirl
@RaflW: How close is the race? Does he already have a ton of money?
Just trying to be discerning here. Strategic is the name of the game, which is why I am asking all these questions.
Also, tell us more about Yadira Caraveo, please. :-)
Geminid
@Mathguy: The NE 2nd was carried by Joe Biden in 2020. He got an electoral vote out of it because Nebraska awards one for each congressional district won, plus two more for whover wins the state.
Don Bacon is a retired Air Force general. He’s pretty conservative but he’s still on the moderate side of the House Republican caucus, Bacon’s one of the Republicans who voted for the Infrastructure bill. That got him on trump’s shit list but Bacon still survived his primary.
Tony Vargas, Bacon’s challenger, is an educator.
mvr
@Mathguy: Yes, Vargas in NE2. Effective legislator in the NE Leg. Lost his dad to covid. Represents his district well in NE Legislature. Good campaigner in a Congressional district that barely went to Bacon (R who is running again) when NE2 went for Biden. It has since been redistricted but they (the Rs in the legislature) have trouble gerrymandering the Omaha District or else they put NE1 (my district) into play. It could be in play anyway. Vargas is more seasoned than the previous candidate. And Bacon is running to the right.
And he called me up to ask for my support way back when the Congressional campaign all started, and I was happy to give it to him along with some of my money. If I were betting I would bet that he pulls it off. It would be a gain for the Ds if he does.
RaflW
@WaterGirl: That’s actually a great question, and I hadn’t looked. Angie (I’m not sure who the ‘he’ is you asked about?) had $4.7M on hand in July to the Repub’s $551K remaining in the bank, so (blush) nevermind.
I’ll follow up on Yadira shortly. She may be getting rained on as a fairly high profile race, too.
Gretchen
I’m excited that you are including my representative, Sharice Davids. She was considered very endangered because of redistricting. They took away some of the urban area of Kansas City, Kansas and added in some distant suburbs and farmland. But then the abortion vote happened. Her opponent is a no-exceptions forced birther who has ties to the loathed Brownback. Sharice is fearlessly going after her as an extremist, while she herself is a pretty solid rep. She’s very available and is often photographed touring job sites and talking to veterans. She’s a great representative and I’m more optimistic. I appreciate the help.
mvr
@Geminid:
Not so moderate if you follow his twitter feed which is all anti-Biden. Also too, he just signed onto Graham’s abortion ban bill. He (foolishly to my mind) has decided to run to the right, at least online.
NE’s elected Rs in the east are not fanatical Trump backers you get in many rural places, and this does not look like a winning strategy to me. Bacon barely pulled his bacon out of the fire last time against a pretty inexperienced candidate. I don’t think he’ll do it again. And it would be a D pickup.
H.E.Wolf
@WaterGirl:
Looking at it more carefully, it doesn’t fit at present. It’s listed as “leans Republican”. Lots of $$$ will be flowing into that race, on both sides, because the MAGA candidate may be too right-wing for the district.. But if that’s so, Balloon Juice $ might be better spent elsewhere.
mvr
@Gretchen: Yeah Davids is good. I need to send her some money again but she can definitely pull it out and it will be important if she does.
Gretchen
@RaflW: I felt the same the first time Sharice ran. There were 7 candidates in the primary race against our useless Republican rep, and I thought an out gay Native American was risky. I was inclined to vote for the old white-guy teacher, but was challenged to take the risk. I knocked doors for her and was so excited when she won. The gay thing has been a non-issue. She’s hardworking and solid.
RaflW
Yadira Caraveo is a pediatrician and is campaigning from a base as a state legislator. My big concern here is that the CO redistricting process has set up a state that could, a bit like MN, have a delegation that is 4:4 D:R despite how the state votes Dem for governor, president or (fingers crossed) senate.
Urban and high-population suburban House districts end up D+30 (making that up, but you get the idea) and then more rural districts are mostly R+10 or so (except that nightmare Boebert’s district. Damn it’s a mess – yet it contains so much ski territory – places where she’d just laugh if climate change borked the snow permanently. She’s a ghoul. But I digress!)
The newly created CO-08 runs from the NE suburbs of Denver, skirting east of Boulder, and up the Platte River valley to ag-centered Greeley. If the rest of America wasn’t so damn gerrymandered, I’d actually think this was a good old fashioned swing district. But we have so few of them, that it could be the vote that seats a GOP speaker in 2023. Gaah.
As to money, Ms. Caraveo has raised considerably more than her GOP opponent in ‘hard money’ but the GOPer has matched the Dem by pulling in $800K in outside spending, to Yadira’s couple thou of interest group cash.
The race is not yet swimming in money (by 2022 standards, anyway) at about $1.1M each … when you add in outside billionaire Repubs thumbing the scale on the other side.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Schraeder was a Blue Dog, but he was one of the bad ones. Bad Blue Dog! Bad Blue Dog!
The primary vote count took a several days. When Cook Political’s Dave Wasserman finally saw enough and called the race for Ms. McLeod-Skinner, he announced that he was changing the district’s rating from Lean D to Tossup. I thought this was less about data than a political narrative that may not neccesarily apply. McLeod-Skinner may be a liberal but she’s still in the Democratic mainstream, I think. Her opponent is fairly right wing.
I think people here who are more familiar with the 5th CD said that redistricting added some Democratic precincts.
WaterGirl
I have an early morning, so I am heading for bed now. I will check back in tomorrow morning. Very interested to see whatever you write!
Geminid
@mvr: I did not say Bacon was so moderate, just that he’s on the more moderate side of the House Republican Caucus, which he is.
RaflW
Interesting minor tidbit, but I keep an absurdly detailed spreadsheet of my political donations, and I noticed that Elaine Luria’s VA-02 was rated R+3 on June 30th, and is now R+2. I don’t know what the magic source of PVIs is, I guess I thought it moved after each presidential cycle, but that’d be a pretty slow and dated look-back, I suppose.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: So he’s crazy right wing, but not bat shit rabid dog crazy?
okay, Note to all, now I’m really going to bed. Will check back in for more input in the morning. Remember, more info is good if you are nominating or discussing someone.
thanks for all the input so far!
Geminid
@RaflW: Elaine Luria’s district is R+2 or 3 because of redistricting. Norfolk was taken out and some more Republican precincts added. I think it was more like a 50-50 district before.
Luria’s a retired Navy officer, as is her opponent, Jen Kiggans.
StringOnAStick
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: i am newish to OR and in Jamie’s stronghold of Bend; she’s on automatic monthly giving for our household. Lots of signs for her in our neighbourhood in the primary and more since then.
The OR race that really concerns me is governor. I really don’t like Betsy Johnson and her Independent spoiler bs.
Geminid
@StringOnAStick: Sore loser that he is, Kurt Schrader endorsed Johnson for Governor. I don’t know if Schader has much clout, though.
Kelly
@StringOnAStick: Schrader endorsed Gov race spoiler Betsy Johnson which tells you all you need to know about what a jerk he is.
I’m a 20 year resident of CD 5. the congresswoman before Schrader had similar conservadem tendencies.
After redistricting CD 5 has changed so much I have no idea how this will go. Not sure how much more money will help Jamie. However her volunteers are numerous, enthusiastic and probably how she beat Schrader. R candidate Chavez-DeRemer is dancing away from her anti-abortion history. The Gov race is muddied by spoiler Johnson noisily supporting abortion rights. In CD 5 it’s a clear choice for Jamie.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Kelly: Johnson is awful! And Kotek actually has a strong record of strengthening abortion rights in Oregon.
But on gun control and climate action, the choice is even more obvious. Tina Kotek for Oregon!
James E Powell
Three California districts with Republican one term incumbents who won by very narrow margins in 2020:
27th – D+4 – Rematch of 2020. Christy Smith lost to Garcia by 333 votes out of 338,943.
40th – R+2 – Dr. Asif Mahmood against Young Kim.
45th – D+2 – Jay Chen against Michelle Steel (not the bass player).
Paul W.
I’m in for 50, I get anxious seeing how close these seats will be… but if we are lucky the new registration trends will be proof of something very pleasantly surprising to come. If we work for it.
Kelly
Interesting article in Willamette Week about less motivated Oregon Republicans. Linn County is a Republican stronghold within Oregon’s CD5. Less enthusiasm for Drazan in the Gov race could also reduce votes for Chavez-DeRemer.
https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/09/15/linn-county-republicans-fume-at-unacceptable-defections-from-christine-drazan/
BlueGuitarist
@RaflW:
Impressed by your detailed spreadsheet!
This year Cook made a slight change to their PVI calculation: instead of using the average of the last 2 presidential elections, they now weight the more recent 3:1.
They have another step: the district average minus the national presidential average to get their Partisan Voting Index.
That’s how a district that Biden and Clinton both narrowly carried is R+1
(like the Akron district, OH-13, Tim Ryan’s old district but without Youngstown, where the current D candidate: is Emilia Sykes, Ohio House Minority leader.
BlueGuitarist
@WaterGirl:
I think these 4 candidates are great, along with others suggested. my suggestion: focus on places where up and down the ballot we have multiple candidates who could win.
Marcy Kaptur getting more people out to vote for Democrats would also help Ryan for US Senate, Nan Whaley for governor, the 3 State Supreme Court candidates, and the other statewide candidates. And while we can’t flip the gerrymandered Ohio legislature, down-ballot that could help win swing seats for state house and state senate that overlap Kaptur’s district.
In the districts I’ve been looking at in Ohio, the average for D+R candidates for
State house: 100k
State Senate: 200k
US House 2 million
So a good additional thing to do is raise money for the down-ballot candidates in these overlapping districts. For example, in Kaptur’s district, a state house candidate Erika White, local union president (CWA)
https://erikaforohio.org/
Money matters more to down-ballot candidates since they have so much less, and they are more likely to use it for direct voter contact, more effective than TV advertising.
I’ve been putting together a list of diverse candidates in key down-ballot districts in swing US House, US Senate seats; if (hoping) you’re interested.
Mathguy
@WaterGirl: Sorry about not replying earlier. mvr and others covered it pretty well. I live in NE-2, so have a horse in this race. Obama won in ‘08 here, and Biden did last election. Eastman last time around was a poor candidate and she ran close to Bacon, 48-52 if I recall correctly. The legislature tried to gerrymander it, but as was mentioned they had to be careful with NE-1 (Lincoln and surrounds). With some help from the FSM, it would be amusing to see Nebraska with 2 Democrats in the House out of 3.
Mathguy
@Geminid: fascist lite instead of full fascist.
J R in WV
OK — we’re in for the 4-way split.
We contributed to Sharice Davids last election, and she won!!! Hurray!! And Marcy is also someone we supported in the distant past, so happy to go again. Not as familiar with the two others, but glad to help anyways. Don’t tell Wife, she is concerned because of the new water heater and issues with the well pump. . . ;~)
Happy TGIF everyone. Leaving soon for my Cat Scan… I hear it only hurts a little bit. There will be an IV, tho. And Wife got her Bivalent booster yesterday, also hurray!
Geminid
@J R in WV: Gabe Vasquez is running in the New Mexico 2nd Congressional District. That covers much of the southern half of the state. Xochitl Torres-Small* flipped it in 2018 by just a few thousant votes, then Yvette Harrell won a rematch in 2020 by a larger margin.
Since then the Democratic legislature redrew the 2nd to add some precincts in the Albuquerque area, and subtract some areas near Roswell in the east. I think it now is rated D+2.
Gabe Vasquez worked for Senator Martin Heinrich after graduating from Notre Dame in 2011, and currently serves on the Las Cruces City Council.
*Ms. Torres-Small now works in the Biden administration, serving as Assistant Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development.
WaterGirl
@James E Powell: What’s the money situation like in CA? Do we know if they are already swimming in money?
WaterGirl
@BlueGuitarist: Definitely!
Please send me an email message.
Geminid
@James E Powell: The CA 36th CD may be another Democratic pickup opportunity in Southern California. The latest redistricting added Palm Springs to the district. According to a NYT article from two weeks ago, Palm Springs is a “liberal bastion” that gives Democrat Will Rollins a good shot at unseating veteran incumbent Ken Calvert.
The interior portions of Southern California used to be a Republican stronghold, but starting at least 10 years ago Democrats have been making strong inroads. Pete Aguilar flipped one district (in 2014 I think), then the following cycle Lou Correa flipped another. Democrats flipped 6 more seats in 2018, although Republicans won back 3 or 4 of them in 2020. Some of this shift may be caused by demographic change, but the radical shift in the Republican party has probably contributed its share.
Lumpy
Donated!