So let’s try this again. My MacBook Pro appears to be fine. Clock and calendar are correct, everything is where it should be, I think I just lost sight of where the battery was in regard to its charge and it ran down on me. Anyhow, it was a weird day. All the major reporters and analysts covering Russia turned it up way past 11 this AM because the Duma started passing all sorts of weird stuff. A law that makes it illegal for Russian military personnel to surrender, as well as to refuse to fight and a few other things. Then it fast tracked legislation regarding general mobilization and war. Before that had even cleared the upper chamber and been signed it was posted on an outward facing website as signed into law. Also, the LPR and DPR announced they would be holding referenda this week to formally join Russia, or, as they’re putting it, re-join Russia, as will Zaporizhzhia. And this was all topped off by the announcement that Putin would be giving an address at 8 PM Moscow time and that when he was done, Minister of Defense Shoigu would speak. It looked something like this:
It is expected that Russian president Vladimir Putin makes a special statement on Ukraine today at 20-00 msk, after that a statement from minister of defence Sergey Shoygu is expected
— Elena Chernenko (@ElenaChernenko) September 20, 2022
Kremlin pool reporters now saying Shoigu will speak alongside Putin. https://t.co/W61GiMnyor
— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2022
The Carnegie Endowment’s Tatyana Stanovaya made this prediction:
Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin with the Duma vote today and referendum announcement is gearing up for an "all-out war" unless Ukraine and the West back down.
— Nataliya Vasilyeva (@Nat_Vasilyeva) September 20, 2022
And, of course, the usual panic set in among Russians who might have to actually fight Putin’s losing cause.
The Ukrainian MOD basically said: “Want some, come get some!”
Ruscist reconstructionists in the occupied territories never tire of repeating the Nazi referendum on the Anschluss of Austria. They are expecting 1938 results. Instead they will get Hitler’s 1945 outcome.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 20, 2022
Then about 9 Moscow time, RT’s editor ordered all Russians to bed!
“Go to sleep,” RT editor Margarita Simonyan writes. Seems like we may not be getting a Putin speech today https://t.co/xiOU6vBOeP
— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2022
So just your average Tuesday!
Before we move on, my assessment here is that the plan was, and may still be, that Putin is going to state that the LPR and DPR and other Russian occupied parts of Ukraine are all historically really part of Russia. Now that Ukraine has counter attacked and pushed Russia way back in Kharkiv, is making progress in Kherson, and appears to be gearing up to continue the push from Kharkiv east and south, Ukraine has invaded Russia. And, so, reluctantly, Putin has no choice but to declare war and move to a more general if not a fully general mobilization to repel the Ukrainian Banderite NAZI invaders. Invaders who are being backed and supported by NATO and are committing the most horrific war crimes and crimes against humanity against the Russian people.
While all of that is bullshit and would continue to be bullshit if he says it, just releases it as a press statement, or it is put into an interpretive dance. But the thinking is that Putin’s concept of what is happening and what he needs to do is rooted in a seemingly unshakeable belief that if Putin suddenly calls what he is doing a defensive war against invasion, then NATO will fracture and stop supporting Ukraine. This is part of his overall thinking that NATO members will simply get tired of supporting Ukraine and just drift away over time. I don’t think this will work, but I’m also not fully enthralled by an alternative history and mythology I helped promote and now can no longer discern from actual reality.
None of that happened today because Putin’s address was called off. So we wait to see what the Moscow Circus has for us tomorrow.
And now back to last night’s post, but today! After the jump!
Sunday night several of you asked if I could address how to counter information warfare. So after we run through the basics tonight, I’ll do my best to answer that question.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukrainians!
I’ve just taken part in a high-level meeting on food security. This meeting took place within the regular UN General Assembly.
The topic of food security is strategically important for our country. This is where we have – and must retain – a global role. This is what gives us economic strength and strengthens our moral leadership. The leadership of people who help others even when they themselves are in extremely difficult circumstances.
We participate in the implementation of the UN World Food Programme and help African countries. We have resumed our seaborne agricultural exports, and this enables us to export our agricultural products to countries already on three continents.
We are working on opening the markets of Latin America and other important parts of the world for our producers.
Tomorrow I will participate in the General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly. Obviously, in a video format. But no matter what the format is, the position of our state will sound, as always, clearly and strongly. Especially since the visit of the First Lady of Ukraine to the United States has already begun, meetings within the UN General Assembly have begun.
Olena has already met with the First Ladies of Poland and Lithuania – this is our format of the Lublin Triangle. And she also met nine wives of presidents and prime ministers from different countries at the Ukrainian Institute of America in the framework of the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen. This is the first such event within our cooperation format. I expect important decisions after the meetings of Prime Minister of Ukraine Shmyhal with the leaders of the states in the framework of the General Assembly.
Today I spoke with the American friends of our country within the Clinton Global Initiative. And also with representatives of the leading American investment circles. I felt a great interest in Ukraine, in our reconstruction, in our capabilities. Unequivocal faith in Ukraine. Good knowledge of the situation in our country. We are developing our relations with the US at all levels.
I spoke with President of Türkiye Erdoğan. The key topic is security.
Head of the Office Andriy Yermak had another conversation with US President’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan today. A very useful, substantive and efficient conversation.
We continue stabilization measures in the areas liberated from the Russian occupation. The regular facts of Russian atrocities are recorded – people show where the occupiers had torture chambers, where they hid the bodies of the murdered, testify about who helped the occupiers.
I am thankful to all law enforcement officers involved in establishing the truth about the crimes of the occupiers. I am thankful to everyone who helps them. This is a colossal job that is needed for the sake of justice, for the sake of punishing everyone guilty of crimes against Ukrainians.
The situation on the frontline clearly indicates that the initiative belongs to Ukraine. Our defenders very carefully and very bravely fulfill the tasks set by their commanders.
Today, I would like to particularly note the 81st separate airborne assault brigade for its courage in liberating settlements in the Donetsk region. And also the 93rd separate mechanized brigade – for the heroic defense of Bakhmut and Soledar. Thank you! Gratitude to all our heroes!
Of course, today there is quite high-profile news from Russia. Lots of questions about this. But what actually happened? What did we hear that had not been heard before?
Our positions are clear and well known. Only this should interest us. Not what sounds somewhere, but what is our task.
More support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more support for intelligence, more support for the Special Operations Forces, more support for the Security Service of Ukraine, for the National Guard, for the police, for the border guards – for everyone who is gradually restoring our territorial integrity.
Our positions do not change because of the noise or any announcements somewhere. And we enjoy the full support of our partners in this.
We inform all subjects of international relations about what is happening. And we see understanding not only from our partners, but also from those states that tried to stay away from our struggle. There will be steps in support of Ukraine in such circumstances from key international associations as well.
So let’s maintain the pressure. Let’s preserve unity. Let’s defend Ukraine. We are liberating our land. And we are not showing any signs of weakness.
And I thank all friends and partners of Ukraine for today’s mass principled firm condemnation of Russia’s attempts to stage new sham referenda.
Glory to everyone who defends our state!
Glory to our beautiful people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Izium and Kherson:
IZIUM /2345 UTC 19 SEP/ RU contact reports corroborate earlier info that UKR has established & exploited crossings of the Donets & Oskil Rivers. Geolocated photographs confirm that UKR has liberated the important junction town of Yarova; this gain exposes RU positions in Lyman. pic.twitter.com/6Mg7OzTkyA
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 19, 2022
KHERSON/1215 UTC 20 SEP/ Over the last 24 hrs, UKR Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) missions destroyed 5 Russian air defense complexes. With RU Air Defense impacted, UKR conducted 15 Close Air Support missions against RU troop concentrations in the Kherson AO. pic.twitter.com/fVPaFmKpKH
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 20, 2022
I know there’s some frustration with his analysis, including his maps. Let me clarify a couple of things. First, this is how military intelligence, at least US military intelligence presents these things. You’ll notice that he indicates sources, but he doesn’t provide a specific detailed citation. That’s because this isn’t an academic paper. When he references Russian communications, I can guarantee that some of the information is coming from here:
Russian WarGonzo reports that Lyman, which has been under 'siege' for about two weeks now, is currently being attacked from two sides. Cites words of the "defenders": "We have losses". pic.twitter.com/W3bDqEJ8wQ
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 19, 2022
No info in Russian sources at the moment. Last mention was 2 hours ago saying Belohorivka is under Ukrainian control from Colonelcassad. That's 10km from Lysychansk. But it was the same yesterday. https://t.co/T35ZCWjjwW pic.twitter.com/0GHcm2PZri
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 19, 2022
Pro-Russian "Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky says Ukraine continues transferring forces in preparation for further offensives in such a way that prevents Russians from even thinking of advancing themselves. https://t.co/SRVdz0PVyn pic.twitter.com/FmbzRROzgM
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 19, 2022
Hope that clears that up a bit.
So this happened!
The Wagner website has been hacked:
“Ukrainian IT Army here. We now have your website personal data. Welcome to Ukraine. We’re waiting for you 😈” pic.twitter.com/iPOSNW6TVe— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) September 19, 2022
And I think that’s a good entry point to a brief attempt to satisfy your curiosity regarding how to counter information warfare. The entire point of information warfare is to influence the targets. Sometimes that is to try to mobilize that audience to do something they might want to do, but ordinarily wouldn’t. In social learning we’d call this the promotion of definitions that neutralize prohibitions against certain behaviors. A good chunk of the Russian information warfare directed at Americans over the past eight years or so has been intended to create a permissive environment for some Americans to act on their most extreme, negative, and destructive impulses. Other messaging is intended to demoralize and thereby demobilize the audience from taking action. This would be the equivalent to what is referred to in social learning as creating definitions unfavorable that then prevent action.
Leaving the social behavioral theory aside, another element is to shock the targets. Seizing an entire information node, one that is considered critical, and then threatening to or actually disseminating the protected information from that node creates that type of shock. What’s just happened to the Wagner site, especially if the hackers decide to release the information, is intended to shock Prigozhin and his mercenaries, which itself has a demoralizing and demobilizing effect.
So how do you counter this. Some of it is to simply flip the script. Russian hackers, usually with the GRU, but also with Russian organized crime have a long history of doing this. Doing it to them is the informational equivalent of punching them in the nose.
Another way is to do what the Fellas/NAFO bubbas and bubbettes are doing. They are basically flooding the informational space, which overwhelms the Russian messaging. And it doesn’t matter if that Russian messaging is factual though slanted or outright disinformation, misinformation, and/or agitprop. Flooding the information space overwhelms the ability of the original message to be embedded because it surrounds it with so much counter-information. As a result, the informational hooks can’t be set in the intended targets.
You all may recall Bannon’s line about flooding the zone with shit. The zone he’s referring to is the informational domain. Flooding it meant putting so much material out there, some factual if slanted, most of it misinformation, disinformation, and agitprop, that it would overwhelm the news media’s ability to actually deal with it. This would then train the publishers and producers, the editors in chief and managing editors, the assignment editors, and the reporters to focus on what the people creating the information overload wanted them to focus on.
What the Fellas/NAFO have demonstrated is that this process can be reversed in an almost aikido like way. By taking the messaging that the Russians are attempting to plant, moving with it, and overwhelming it with information that wraps it all up and makes it impossible to easily travel through the Information Domain. This effectively neutralizes it. When a Fella identifies a target to counter, they invoke NAFO’s Article V – a play on NATO’s Article V – using a hashtag and all the Fellas who can respond do. Which just drowns out the initial messaging. Their in joke is that they’re using the SuperBonker 9000 weapon system to do this.
I’ve covered the Fellas a few times here before, but here’s a recent piece by DW about them:
A single tweet in May launched an online movement that has become the kryptonite of the pro-Russian trolls that have long ruled corners of the internet.
“For many years, Russia has been waging a serious information war globally,” said Ivana Stradner, a NAFO member, advisor to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and writer for the Kyiv Post newspaper.
At the start of the Ukraine war in February, the West had done little to counter Russia’s fake news with “offensive information operations,” she added.
This information war imbalance has been corrected to an extent by NAFO, or the North Atlantic Fella Organization, a play on NATO that creates humorous memes to satirize Russian claims, for example, that it is not invading Ukraine but simply liberating it from Nazis — ironic considering Ukraine has a Jewish president.
With Russia justifying its invasion as a pushback against NATO expansion, the fellas like to claim that “NAFO expansion is non-negotiable.”
NAFO rose up spontaneously in May when the Twitter account @Kama_Kamilia offered a custom “fella” — a Shiba Inu dog avatar — to collect donations to the Georgian Legion that supports the Ukrainian military.
A gender-neutral dog cartoon character inspired by the long-running “doge” internet meme, the fella soon became the mascot for pro-Ukrainian mockery of “vatniks” who spearhead Russian propaganda online.
An especial focus is the “whataboutism” of professed anti-imperialists who justify Russian aggression in light of past NATO-led wars in the Balkans or Iraq.
One month after NAFO was born, Russian ambassador to the IAEA Mikhail Ulyanov was drawn into a debate with a pack of fellas that significantly raised their profile across the internet.
Jordan Maris, head of the #NAFO delegation to the European Parliament, where he also works as a researcher, said previous attempts to combat Russian propaganda with truth were rarely effective.
“A lie can get halfway around the world before the truth can even put its trousers on,” Maris told DW, referring to a famous quote often attributed to former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.
So why are the NAFO memes mocking pro-Russian accounts so powerful?
“We aren’t trying to disprove their propaganda, because it’s extremely easy to make up lies and very hard to disprove them,” he explained. “Instead we are openly mocking them.”
Stradner said that countering official Russian narratives with ridiculous cartoon dogs has been effective, in part, because “humor is tremendously important for the Russian society.”
Instead of debunking Russian claims, NAFO launches memes against Russian diplomats that are “so absurd that they cannot really counter that and respond,” she said. “This is where I think NAFO is doing quite a marvelous job.”
There’s much more at the link, including the picture below of a NAFO sponsored Ukrainian tank:
The takeaway here is that authentic, meaningful responses if directed at the right audiences and then amplified can make a major difference. Basically overwhelming the disinformation, misinformation, and/or agitprop.
Also, obligatory!
Whip it. Whip it good.#NAFO #WeAreNAFO #Fellas #HIMARS #himarsoclock pic.twitter.com/RVX12h7TFm
— Pete (@BravoKilo6464) July 15, 2022
I think that’s far more than enough for tonight. And last night too!
Your daily Patron!
It was just for you (1 min for taking photos). I like to wear only my uniform and Ukrainian vyshyvanka ❤️
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 20, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Цінуйте своїх хвостатих❤️ #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption translates as:
Appreciate those with tails❤️ #dogPatron #PatronDSNS
Open thread!
cain
Got to say, I was looking forward to this post to see what you think Putin would do. I think you’re probably spot on. But I agree with you that NATO is not going to just disappear and they already got Finland and others ready to join up.
I’m really impressed by UKR’s information attack – and I sometimes wonder why we don’t see as much evidence of our own efforts to combat Russia’s information offensive. Can anybody post some evidence of us kicking Russian asses in the way that UKR seems to be doing?
ETA – shiit, missed it. I was sure that I waited long enough. Meh.
cain
@cain:
Oh yeah, I was going to add – when Russia declares war on UKR for invading – laughable as that may be – there are probably going to do the same disinformation shit against Americans and NATO allies as well – specifically they got lots of far right allies to work with.
ETA – yess.. now I win.
Mike J
If the Republicans take the house in 49 days, expect it to become much harder to budget for what we’re shipping. “I’m absolutely not supporting any further funding for Ukraine,” Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL)”
Republicans are not just a danger to the US. They a danger to the entire world.
Gin & Tonic
That last word of Patron’s, “хвостатих” is a possessive form, meaning not “tails” by “those with tails.” So it would be something like appreciate/cherish your creatures with tails. Not as pithy in English, but then I’m not a translator either.
You don’t have to edit it, Adam, I’m just trying to add a little linguistic context.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I’ve been growing increasingly more worried and afraid while reading about all this russian bullshit and their insane plans and what all of it might lead to. And I really really hope that all of the countries that have been assisting Ukraine — including us — will not be cowed by putin’s next psychotic fever dream moves and in fact will only strengthen their support for the Ukrainians. Giving putin what he wants is the worst possible thing anyone could do.
Gotta say though:
I never watch clips of him speaking because I hate him so much, but I would tune in for that.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Fair Economist
I think the Russians realize they’ve lost and are trying increasingly desperate gambits to reverse things. It’s way too late to mobilize; they can’t equip the limited soldiery they have. They don’t have the infrastructure to mobilize either; nobody to train the troops, no place to quarter them, etc.
It makes me think of the Nazis dreaming up increasingly wild weapons at the end of the war they’d already lost. Other than being a lot less effective.
NutmegAgain
Love Patron, crazy about the Shibus (expansion is non-negotiable).
But, question: If that’s Moscow Circus, who the heck is Carla in this scenario? I’m not seeing the intelligence genius who plays a long game.
Fair Economist
@Gin & Tonic: Languages with complex declensions can do really pithy and catchy wordplay and phrases. Latin is like that; I remember being impressed with how terse and pretty it could be. Much harder to learn, but cool.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: Amusing mistake
Adam L Silverman
@Fair Economist: The NAZIs didn’t have nukes.
UncleEbeneezer
So the first question I have is: is there any way a NAFO-like response could be used here in the US to counter the vast disinformation that continually floods us all with Russian/GOP/FoxNews shit? Whether it is pro-Fascist, anti-vaccine, TERF, CRT Hysteria etc. it seems like we are just always overwhelmed by lies and bad faith bullshit. Would love to find a way to direct some of our collective online energy to start fighting back in a smart way. Any ideas?
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: The curse of using machine translation. I have fixed it per your explanation.
Adam L Silverman
@UncleEbeneezer: There is, but someone would have to organize it.
Anonymous At Work
@Mike J: If they win, their first day is January 4th. That’s 2 extra months, over 100 days. And the situation plays right into the one area where the Bully Pulpit works best. The GOP will be afraid that if they shut off the flow, they’ll be seen as responsible for any atrocities committed or mass casualties or suffering. And they won’t have sufficient crazies to win any votes on the matter that do come up.
zhena gogolia
Why is it the women on Russian tv are even viler than the men?
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
Not that they didn’t try, of course. The race to develop the first nuclear weapon began well before WWII.
Sebastian
@UncleEbeneezer:
Thank you for asking this! The answer is YES!
To become a Fella you need to do two things:
a) donate to the Georgian Legion, so Kamila and gang make a Fella for you.
b) adopt the Fella spirit, which is a fearless mockery of all nonsense.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t think we have to reinvent the wheel. The wingnuts, or Gopniks as I call them, are the same as the vatniks and other trolls out there. We can all just become Fellas and go bonk all that nonsense.
Ballon-Juice, with its pet-centric soul, fits right in there.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@zhena gogolia: I suppose that’s how the men like their women.
UncleEbeneezer
@Adam L Silverman: Is there any way you could lay out the basics of what would be required as you would imagine it? How many volunteers would need to be onboard? Would it take $, infrastructure, expertise Etc? If you don’t have time no worries, just curious…
Miss Bianca
@Sebastian: I must confess, when I saw a post you made about the Fellas the other day, it was Greek to me. Now that I grok the concept, I think it’s marvelous. Yay for ridiculing the ridiculous!
oldster
The cancellation of Putin’s speech suggests some instability within the Kremlin. Could be good news. Or very bad news.
I feel the same way about the riots in Iran. My heart is with the Iranian people, against their corrupt oppressive theocracy. I love seeing the women burn the veils that they do not want to wear. I’m excited to see crowds fighting back against the riot police. Could be good news. Or very bad.
When horrible regimes have been in power for decades, they do not let go of control easily. Iran and Russia may both have better days in their future. But the trail from here to their may be grim and bloody.
My prayers are with the champions of democracy and freedom, worldwide. Slava Ukraini!
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: I don’t disagree, but someone is still going to have to organize things initially. Also, I’m not sure appropriating NAFO is appropriate. But establishing something like the Fellas Bureau of Investigation/FBI might work.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Pale and bitter.
Frankensteinbeck
My instinct with general mobilization is that someone has again told Putin what he wants to hear, that he has resources unused that do not actually exist. Otherwise… well, I guess he can conscript every man in Russia, but what is he going to do with them? Have them march barefoot to Ukraine waving sticks?
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: I like Fellas Bureau of Investigation!
Michael
MisterForkbeard
@Adam L Silverman: And that’s the real question to me and the rest of the world. If Russia declares a “total (defensive) war” are they going to bring nukes to the table?
Its their best scare tactic now that their actual armed forces have been shown up repeatedly.
oldster
@Sebastian:
“We can all just become Fellas and go bonk all that nonsense.”
You pronounced this nonsense. Not me.
https://www.saintjavelin.com/products/fellas-you-pronounced-this-nonsense-adult-tshirt
(I think the NAFO people are very witty and clever at inventing new memes and slogans. )
cain
It just kills me that our entire global politics is because of western powers and oil has caused a lot of shit – propping up dictators, encouraging revolutions – all of that comes from a) oil b) cold war politics. The world is a mess, and the U.S. is part of the problem and we should definitely be part of the solution.
Andrya
@Amir Khalid: I had always thought that the Nazi German failure to develop the nuclear bomb was very much due to anti-Semitism: Bohr, Bethe, Fermi, and Szilard were European nuclear physicists who had to leave Europe because they were either Jewish, partially Jewish, or had a Jewish wife- all of whom, after immigrating to the US, worked on the Manhattan Project. Teller left Europe due to anti-Semitism in German ally Hungary. Other world class physicists on the Manhattan Project- Feynman, Oppenheimer- were Americans who would never have been available to Germany.
This left Germany with only one world class nuclear physicist- Heisenberg- with absolutely no one on his level to collaborate with. There is some evidence that Heisenberg intentionally slow walked the bomb project, but I’m not sure about that.
Sounds like an example of “karma is a bitch”.
Of course, the sabotage of the heavy water plant by the Norwegian resistance was also a factor.
I’m not arguing with you, just adding a bit of context.
cain
@MisterForkbeard: who are they going to nuke? Ukraine? That’s like right at their door stop and even their allies will get screwed. They might have to use low yield nuclear weapons, but that’s going to have some serious political consequences and nobody has really used nuclear weapons in a war, all kinds of bad shit could happen.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Adam L Silverman: I mean…that’s also me. But I’m not evil, so that’s a plus in my column.
WaterGirl
@Fair Economist: I think this will be Putin’s way of tipping over the table.
Putin is not winning things as things are now, so I think what Adam suggested is quite likely. That Putin will tip over the table by saying that Ukraine is the aggressor.
Putin is trying to save face, and trying to find a way to win. You can’t fault anyone for either of those things, but i do fault him for everything else.
Medicine Man
Objectively stupid, but this is my favourite NAFO video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1551064058014666752
Gin & Tonic
This is an interesting development out of Kazakhstan:
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Right. I’ve been a Fella for a while now and part of the avant-garde NAFOwave and other experimental forks.
There have been some talks about taking the fight outside the Ukraine theater, but nothing significant yet as the focus is still on the task at hand.
You are on the right track with the FBI/branching/forking a dedicated (at least initially) branch to fight internet disinfo in the US. The one thing I’m concerned about is creating the Fella avatars and how to give Kamila and the GL credit.
Layer8Problem
@NutmegAgain: “If that’s Moscow Circus, who the heck is Carla in this scenario?”
The Karla in this scenario cleared out ages ago, went to work for London Centre, retired with a knighthood and a pension, and followed his muse to delight millions playing Captain Jean-Luc Picard.
At least in the BBC production.
Ken
Sounds like “Be Kind to Your Web-Footed Friends” (warning: earworm).
Anoniminous
Putin Cancelled.
This Wokeness thing has gone too far
Amir Khalid
@cain:
That right there is the best argument for getting rid of all nuclear weapons, even the smaller “tactical” nukes: because of the likelihood of serious geopolitical blowback, they have become effectively unusable in war.
Amir Khalid
@Andrya:
Nazis just can’t stop nazi-ing, can they, even when hurts their own interests.
Adam L Silverman
@MisterForkbeard: I think that’s part of the conceptualization here. Specifically, their long-standing doctrine that establishes the use of tactical nukes in a conventional, defensive war. I think this is intended to be the PSYOP it has always been to freeze up the decisions makers from providing more support for fear of Russian using their nukes.
Geminid
@Andrya: I recall reading that two German physicists investigating the neutron slowing properties of graphite came up with results showing that the material was unsuited to a nuclear reactor; there is speculation that their mistake was intentional.
So German scientists thought that heavy water was required for a nuclear reactor, while Enrico Fermi made graphite work just fine.
Poptartacus
Love the fellas. NAFO rocks, got the cool t-shirt from St. Javelin.
http://www.saintjavelin.com
kalakal
@Adam L Silverman: I like that idea!
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: Watch this from the 2:58 mark. The physicist who’s name you’re missing is Meitner. Dr. Lisa Meitner. She figured out how to split the atom after the NAZIs ran her into exile for being Jewish.
https://youtu.be/kQpu-lZaW_c
Wag
The dogs in the Whip It video certainly look the DEVO part. The glasses give them a certain Mark Mothersbaugh look. Well done!
oldster
@cain:
“…the U.S. is part of the problem and we should definitely be part of the solution.”
Agreed. But, sometimes we have been part of the solution, and sometimes we still are.
It’s easy to forget how much good we do in disaster relief, for instance, when our cargo planes and carriers are sometimes the first source of food and water to reach the needy.
We are currently doing immense good in Ukraine through our lend lease program fighting Russian aggression, just as our lend lease program to the USSR fought Nazi oppression in the 40s. (The scale of our assistance to Uncle Joe is astounding — we provided them with 7000 tanks, 5000 other armored vehicles, 11,000 fighter aircraft, and 400,000 — almost half a million! — jeeps and cargo trucks. Want to know why the Soviets kicked Hitler’s ass, and Ukraine is kicking Putin’s ass? Look at which side is receiving our assistance.)
I know, we can also pat ourselves on the back too much, and our generosity does not absolve us from our sins. But a balanced look at our record does not bear out the depressing view that we’re always the problem and never the solution. We are and have been both. We just need to improve our record, and shift the balance towards doing more good and less stupid shit.
zhena gogolia
@Poptartacus: Oh, I love this stuff.
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you so much. I’m embarrassed to say I had never heard of her, and both the history of science and military history are passions of mine. I will will be sharing this with like-minded family & friends
And, as always, thank you for these updates.
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: If you want to make it Balloon Juice centric, which would put a target on the blog, you’d have to use Tunch or Steve. And someone here would have to do the avatars, not Kamila.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: The entire documentary, as well as the book it is based on, is brilliant. But without Lis Meitner, the atom is not split. At least not in time to make a difference in World War II.
Carlo Graziani
I’m going to stop beating the dead horse of Pfarrer’s maps, because I should live so long. But for the record, the specific problem with his Donbas map — which is still there — is not principally about his source attribution. It has to do with simple carelessness. He has Ukrainian forces operating in areas and on roads where they simply cannot be, given the fact that the Russians are still shelling Bakhmut. The complaint about his informational diet was secondary to that obvious, repeated blunder.
I understand about the fog of war. I don’t think Pfarrer does. That’s all.
dm
The Shiba-Inu is a big improvement over Pepe the Frog. It’s nice that it’s on the side of the angels.
Back in the waning days of Communist Poland, there was an organization known as the Orange Alternative. They pulled stunts like passing out rolls of toilet paper (in short supply), and dressing up as elves for the sole purpose of forcing their interrogators to ask, “For what purpose did you attend a meeting of elves?”
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
That would defeat the purpose of it, wouldn’t it? The reason it works is that you can’t pinpoint anyone.
We might be overthinking this.
Layer8Problem
Clicking on tweet links takes me to the referenced tweet, but scrolling down past “More Tweets” locks up the page and puts the stupid Twitter signup/logon popup in the middle of the page, which wasn’t happening this morning. uBlock Origin’s “Block element . . .” takes out the popup but the tweet page still won’t scroll. Does anyone have any easy or hard fixes for this before I attempt to Google it into submission?
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
I know you were looking for a railroad map. So was Thomas C. Theiner and this is what his search came up with:
Anoniminous
I, for one, would be very interested in seeing a World War II equipped Russian Army going up against a modern NATO equivalent trained, armed, and led Ukrainian Army.
It’d be one for the history books.
ETA: WW 2 equipped because that’s all they’ve got
Mousebumples
Nothing much to add, except my thanks to Adam for his excellent insight. I am smarter and better informed for what you put together for us all.
Fake Irishman
@Adam L Silverman:
YES! Meitner is an amazing scientist, from her working in the attic of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute because they wouldn’t let a woman on the main floor (her nephew knew what his aunt could do and vouched for her to get a job there, being an ally matters) to her exile in Sweden during the war.
Richard Rhodes wrote all about her and many, many other scientists in The Making of the Atomic Bomb. I remember in particular how it seemed Niels Bohr was running something between an academic placement service and an Underground Railroad for German Physicists in Denmark between about 1937 through 1944 (Denmark was occupied between 1940-1945, but retained considerable local autonomy in exchange for not resisting the initial German invasion. To their credit, one thing the Danes used that autonomy to do was protect Jews living in the country)
Carlo Graziani
“Interpretive dance” is good.
What could either Putin or Shoigu have announced in a speech that would have justified all that buildup? Universal conscription/mobilization would be temporarily electrifying, except Putin is allergic to it, and they don’t have either the 4-5 years to build up the infrastructure or — especially now — the budget to pay for that kind of army, so after a few weeks, when they’d still be getting sliced like pastrami by the Ukrainians, it would begin to dawn on everyone that they’d been taken in. Big threats? Biden just preempted them with a quiet one.
It’s baffling really. Best guess is factions — one making a big showy plan and getting it greenlighted, another panicking and getting it cancelled at the last moment. But who the fuck knows, really.
Bill Arnold
@Layer8Problem:
Click on “sign up” and cancel with the X. You’ll be good to go for a while.
Matt McIrvin
@cain: Hold the world hostage, Bond villain greater-madman theory. Say “I’ve gone insane now, I am suicidal, and the whole world needs to force Ukraine to surrender in 24 hours (or by some deadline) or I launch all nuclear missiles and global civilization dies, even if I die with it.”
The problem is in not being believed. To some extent Putin has kind of insinuated this already and it’s not regarded as a credible threat.
Ken
@Layer8Problem: I click on the “sign up” link, then close the popup that appears, and can keep browsing the original thread without further popups.
This “One Weird Trick” courtesy of Balloon Juice, a couple weeks ago.
Chetan Murthy
@Layer8Problem: I don’t know about other, possibly better solutions, and would love to learn about them. I just block all cookies from twitter.com. I still can’t scroll down past a few screenfuls on most users’ timelines, but otherwise, I don’t get any popups.
sanjeevs
@Adam L Silverman: Is there any evidence that NAFO is working outside Twitter?
Twitter has the advantage of being fairly open (you can purchase their data via GNIP), but FB, Tik-Tok etc are closed systems. You can’t reach the people you want to reach without enormous preparatory work (eg. trojan horse type groups)
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: Like I said, someone has to organize things. Even if it’s loose organization. And I don’t think it’s a good idea to center it here.
Fake Irishman
@Andrya:
You might really interested in Rhodes’ “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” that I referenced in this thread. I’m sure there are quite a few great books on the subject that are great, but Rhodes’ first 300 pages tracing the original science of the atom are amazing. (Also, two other women figure prominently in it, both named Currie with three Nobel Prizes between the two of them). And that’s even before you get to the attempt to make the actual bomb.
Adam L Silverman
@sanjeevs: My understanding is it’s Twitter centric.
Adam L Silverman
@Fake Irishman: I second the recommendation.
trollhattan
Kyiv Independent interview with US General Ben Hodges (ret.) on strategy and tactics. An excerpt.
https://kyivindependent.com/national/retired-us-general-if-russia-used-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine-us-would-have-to-get-directly-involved?fbclid=IwAR0X4fop261_1OkApkOgDJ8PiEizGZzchHc-yJIK_p7Im74pTg9wOfwTzHo
dm
@Fake Irishman: I should reread Rhodes’ book. I read it while recovering from having all my wisdom teeth out, so I didn’t do the book justice. About all I remember is the opening bit with Leo Szilard carrying letters around.
zhena gogolia
@Layer8Problem: When you get the signup popup, click “sign up,” then click the x in the upper left corner of the ensuing popup, and it takes you back to the thread.
Layer8Problem
@Bill Arnold: @Ken: @zhena gogolia:
I backed out my blocks and tried that out and it worked like a charm. Thanks! It’s extra work though for a regularly appearing and esthetically displeasing nuisance and I’m stupid lazy, so I’ll keep trying stuff.
@Chetan Murthy:
Yeah, I delete just about all cookies, except for Balloon Juice of course, when Firefox closes. Paranoia and irritant-wrangling are full-time jobs and the Internet flies in both fresh daily. NoScript and uBlock Origin are my major utilities.
Urza
@Anonymous At Work: I’m sorry, you’re thinking they care about atrocities and suffering. Their voters consider that a bonus on top of screwing Biden.
Bill Arnold
@Layer8Problem:
I haven’t tried it but this chrome (chrome family inc brave) extension might work:
Breakthrough Twitter Login Wall “Bypass ‘Log in to continue’ of Twitter, added in August 2021”
Last updated Aug 2022.
The Pale Scot
@Andrya: None off that mattered. Simply put, extracting and enriching Uranium and Plutonium was task only the USA’s industrial capacity could accomplish. Just to build one part of the system 1200 tons of silver were taken from the Treasury. No other country had even a smidgeon of that capacity.
Ex. In 1944 the US built more planes, and more ships than the rest of the world did for the entire war
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Correct, it shouldn’t.
My thought process was along these lines FWIW
I can only speak for myself, but ever since I went Fella, my Twitter life has become way less stressful. Shutting up or neutralizing trolls and disinfo spigots is a great experience and satisfaction and something all of us can do.
IMHO Juicers should start dipping their toes in the water and bring some divine nonsense into the public discourse.
Sebastian
@sanjeevs:
NAFO is Twitter-centric because that’s where the press and the politicians are. It helps shape the public narrative and discourse.
For instance, NAFO stopped a RU bot campaign (countermessaging the Izyum exhumations) on almost the same day.
It’s shitposting but for a good cause and it’s also a lot of fun.
Dan B
@Frankensteinbeck: Every bullet in a Russian man is one less bullet that Ukraine has. Will Putin just paint bullseyes on the new “recruits”? It would speed their arrival at the front. No weeks lost to basic training.
MisterForkbeard
@Adam L Silverman: That was my thinking. I don’t think Putin will actually use the nukes, but he’s also really hoping we’ll think he might.
Lyrebird
@Sebastian:
You’re doing great things!
I mostly read Twitter via Anne Laurie posts. I am enjoying Dark Brandon memes, they seem like a step in the right direction.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: The carbon moderator issue was a broader failure than Heisenberg’s. He and Weiszacker had made some calculations that indicated a too-small neutron scattering cross-section for carbon. I’m not aware of claims that this was deliberate — those nuclear calculations were based on very imprecise models anyway.
Soon thereafter, Bothe, using industrial purified graphite “confirmed” that it wouldn’t do as a moderator, for a different reason — it “captured” too many neutrons, poisoning the flux. What they failed to realize — unlike Fermi and his group — is that graphite, unless it is ultra-pure, contains trace boron, which has a huge neutron capture cross-section. Pure graphite is a great moderator. But the German bomb effort disregarded it, and went after heavy water instead.
In a sense, this is all moot. An examination of the Manhattan project size and scope pretty much leads one to the inevitable conclusion that only the US could have developed a practical nuclear weapon during WWII. At a time when other combatants were making agonizing resource allocation choices among weapons technology development programs (jets? silent subs? rockets? upgraded tanks? etc.) that had to bear fruit within 3-4 years, the US built for the Manhattan Project an industrial plant equivalent in size to its entire automobile industry (Rhodes’ estimate) between December 1942 and July 1945, invested in production plants for two separate bomb fuels, each with multiple production and separation technologies, and wound up developing two different bomb designs, one (Fat Man) as a result of a crisis in March 1944 when it was discovered that reactor Pu-239 (the kg-production stuff) emitted many more neutrons than accelerator-produced Pu-239 (microgram-quantity stuff, studied on microscope slides), and would pre-detonate the gun (Thin Man) designs intended for it. 16 months later, the “impossible” implosion bomb was successfully tested at the Trinity site.
The point is that the US did not know whether a bomb could work at all, let alone which technical path would succeed. The Manhattan Project succeeded because the US could operate in the Infinite Resouce Approximation, and invest in all technical paths, even some that seemed goofy when they were proposed — in the case of implosion, more than a year prior to the March 1944 crisis. No other WWII combatant could have approached the problem that way. Given the technical hurdles that were surmounted, it is extremely doubtful that they could have succeeded in any other way.
Once one knows that a bomb is possible, and roughly what the parameters are, and one is not in a hot war, the case is different, of course.
LadySuzy
@cain: the problem of Russia doesn’t have ANYTHING to do with the US.
I strongly recommend to you the lecture series of Timothy Snyder on Youtube. Mr. Snyder is a history professor at Yale, specialist in the history of Eastern Europe.
Carlo Graziani
@Sebastian: Thanks. It looks valuable. I had trouble controlling the interface from my Chromepad, but I’ll try again from a real computer in the morning.
Carlo Graziani
@The Pale Scot: No fair saying briefly and pithily what it takes me a whole goddamned essay to state, man.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
That would have as crystal clear anything else that has come out of Putin during this war. Is everyone around Putin tweaking on uppers and anti depressants?
Andrya
Thanks to everyone who updated my knowledge of the development of the bomb in WW2. I have ordered the Rhodes book from Amazon. I love the fact that there is always something to learn on Balloon Juice!
The Pale Scot
@Carlo Graziani:
Sorry dude. But I couldn’t remember all the detail that you posted, so I used small words :)
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Adam L Silverman: Fellas Bureau of Instigation, surely.
Sebastian
Interesting videos coming out of Samarkand.
Chetan Murthy
@Sebastian: This is really trying: I wanna see the video, but do *not* want to reactivate my Twitter account. B/c I know where that’ll lead, and I have high blood pressure.
Sebastian
@Chetan Murthy:
Perhaps a front pager can embed it. It’s a video of Putin standing all by himself, waiting for the Turkish delegation. He is behaving like a mix of Mr. Bean and a mime, attempting to jovially aww shucks with his guys how the Turks are taking their time by hugging and kissing. But by doing that, he looks ridiculous AND he is insulting the Turks by making fun of their cultural habits.
He totally bombed it.
Chetan Murthy
@Sebastian: All I needed to know! Thank you! I never get much from the actual vids — I’d be happy with textual descriptions. I’m the anti-Dall-E that way.
glc
@Bill Arnold:
Another way (with Chrome) is to use the extension “Kill-Sticky” which gets rid of a lot of garbage on different web pages with one click. Though you still have to let the pop-up appear before killing it.
Chetan Murthy
@glc: Oh, thank you! I installed it; let’s see how it works next time I have a sticky pane obscuring a page.
sab
@Sebastian: Playing to his own crowd. That is mostly all he has anymore.
There is a reason that Turkey is in NATO and that reason is the Bosphorus, which absolutely controls entry between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, and has for at least a thousand years.
They know that. We know that. Russia knows that.
Benno
@Ken: I know you warned us, but you’re still a monster. I want a duck now.
lowtechcyclist
Looks like Putin has finally given his speech. Partial mobilization (reserves only), supposedly this will involve nearly 300K new troops (general reaction is he’s got nowhere near those numbers of meaningful reserves), and a stop-loss order for those currently serving, i.e. if a Russian soldier signed a short-term contract to serve, he’s serving indefinitely. Boy will that ever increase troop morale!
And a sudden surge of people booking flights out of Russia.
lowtechcyclist
@Benno: But do you want a new duck?
sab
@lowtechcyclist: I remember people from American companies using Russian workets going yikes. Those workers needed to commit one way or the other.
My sistrer works as researcher support for a Swiss pharmaceutical. They had lots of Russian support. Cut those ties. Thinking about elsewhere in Europe. Spain? Portugal?
Should be America, but our kids have debt tothe eyeballs, so not affotdsble.
sab
@sab: Her Swiss company has hired kids they like, But basic issue is their fancy school debt. They can’t pay and company thinks its not its problem.
Benno
@lowtechcyclist: that was some low-hanging fruit I left there for you.
JR
@Andrya: The Germans still had Born, very much a world class physicist. But it is obviously true that antisemitism cost them a lot of intellectual power (and other things, besides).
zhena gogolia
@Sebastian: At that summit or whatever it was, he was behaving the way TFG did when he met Putin himself. Not alpha dog.
Geminid
@Sebastian: NAFO reminds me of KHive, the group on Twitter. They started out pushing back on various slanders of Kamala Harris and have since broadened their efforts to refute attacks on Democratic politicians generally.
Their targets complain that the KHive must be coordinated by a central authority- Neera Tanden? Speaker Pelosi?. I think they are are just a network of likeminded people who follow each others accounts and react collectively to attacks on mainstream Democratic politicians, from the left or the right. They pride themselves on showing “receipts,” specific news stories that directly contradict lies and half-truths.
A favorite joke:
Matt McIrvin
@Carlo Graziani: My impression is that the notion that Heisenberg was deliberately slow-walking or sabotaging the German project came from self-serving stuff he claimed after the war, and there’s not much evidence for it actually being true.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: Also, the BTS Army. Piss THEM off and you’re in for a world of hurt.
evodevo
@zhena gogolia: Well…just look at Fixed News…it’s a close race…
trnc
I was thinking lower because, hey, Balloon Juice, amirite?
Argiope
@Sebastian: Any chance you’d be willing to work with WaterGirl to provide a tutorial? If this technique is the most effective so far in combatting disinfo, skills we learn as fellas could be transferable.
Paul in KY
@zhena gogolia: They use the same casting agency as Fox News.
Miss Bianca
@Argiope:
@Sebastian: I like that idea!
Paul in KY
@Anoniminous: If that Russian army had ‘WWII Motivation’, then it would be a very tough foe, even for a modern army. Luckily, their motivation sucks and appears to be getting worse day by day.
Uncle Cosmo
@Fake Irishman: One of the first photos in the book is of a castle tower in Kungälv, southern Sweden. Over Christmas holiday in 1938, the physicists Lise Meitner and her nephew Otto Frisch worked together under the tower’s 3-windowed gaze to explain the paradoxical outcome of an experiment conducted by Otto Hahn, Meitner and Fritz Strassmann earlier in the year. They were the first to correctly interpret the results as the product of nuclear fission, and their work may be considered the beginning of “the making of the atomic bomb.”
In summer 2000 I was in southern Sweden and took a bus from Göteborg to Kungälv, and there was the castle with its tower (which apparently is/was a popular venue for wedding parties). There was exactly one hotel in the area, which had to be the one where Meitner and Frisch stayed. I wandered into the lobby looking for some sort of posted notice, like a plaque. Nothing. I then went to the desk and asked, Are you aware that a very historic event happened in your hotel? They were not. Have a look in this book (I wrote down the name of TMOTAB) and it will explain.
The dear friend I was visiting in Copenhagen passed away the following November (the day before the infamous Bush-Gore election) and I’ve never had reason to return to Scandinavia. I wonder if anything came of my efforts…
J R in WV
@Layer8Problem:
Just click on the sign up option, as if you were going to sign up.
Then on the upper left corner of the sign up page, there’s an “X” to close that message box! Then when it goes away, in my experience, the page will go back to normal, as if you had signed up.
ETA: I see others beat me to passing this solution along, thanks folks !!
J R in WV
@Carlo Graziani:
But mad props to you for acknowledging it !!
cain
@Amir Khalid: I mean nobody wins. Hell, we knew that when we watched the movie “War Games” :-)
Sebastian
@Geminid:
That’s exactly what it is with the added bonus of being double anonymous and absurd.
It’s one thing to respond to a snarky comment made by Sebastian but what about a Shiba Inu in a suit, sipping GOP tears from a cup? lol
A lot of communication and posting is done via memes (I have a whole folder of funny ones) and the basic rule is: you engage a troll/disinfo once or twice only (per Fella). Don’t forget, on the other side is a (mostly shitty) human and they get exhausted.
cain
@oldster:
Yes, we’ve done a lot of good at least from disasters and what not.
But a truly balanced view would show that the U.S. has interfered in the politics of other nations that turned it detrimental later.
Iran is a good example of an outcome that turned out bad for the world. We took a liberal nation and turned it into a religious patriarchy that sponsors terrorism everywhere. The U.S. threatened India when they were close to stopping a war started by Pakistan (sort of like Russia and Ukraine) – India and Pakistan could have had a peace treaty that could have resolved a lot of long simmering issues.
We’re good people. We just had shitty short sighted foreign policies. But also keep in mind, that the price we pay for our way of life comes from those foreign policies. One day we’re going to have to figure out how to balance that.
Sebastian
@Argiope:
Yes, happy to!
Ixnay
Apropos of nuclear research, the Feynman books are entertaining as hell. “Surely you’re joking Mr Feynman”, and others are great reads, quite the raconteur and he plays the bongos.