One of our PA jackals, Wolvesvalley, has made the case for Susan Wild (PA-07) to be added to our Winnable House Races in Purple Districts thermometer. Unless you customize the amounts, donations to that thermometer will be split 5 ways:
Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)
Sharice Davids (KS-03)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02)
Elaine Luria (VA-02)
Susan Wild (PA-07)
Winnable House Races Purple Districts
Susan Wild – who is running in PA-07 – has won three elections so far: a special election to replace Charlie Dent in 2018; then two general elections in 2018 and 2020. Her Republican opponent in 2020 was Lisa Scheller; 2022 is a rematch.
In the 2020 general election, Wild beat Scheller 195,475 to 181,407. In the 2022 primary, Wild received 62,330 votes. Pennsylvania has closed primaries, so (a) non-Democrats couldn’t vote for her and (b) she was unopposed, so it’s possible that many voters didn’t bother to vote in that race. Total votes cast on the Republican side were 66,711, split between Lisa Scheller (the winner) and Dean Browning (who was simultaneously running in the state Senate primary and won there).
I think if Democrats turn out she can win. My impression is that Wild has been stepping up the attack-ad spending; here is a local story about a pretty good one which I have seen on TV.
The district has been redrawn for 2022 to include more conservative territory, which is why this is now considered a toss-up. Otherwise, this would likely be lean Democratic.
Here is a rating chart from Ballotpedia. Cook rates the district “lean Republican”; two other sites list it as “toss-up.”
Links from that chart:
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales
Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The Ballotpedia site has this table of campaign finances from the June 30, 2022 report. I haven’t seen any later financial figures.
prostratedragon
I just added my first but not last minute to this fund.
Gary K
538 agrees it’s close.
Albatrossity
I’ve donated directly to Sharice Davids (I am not in her district) and also here as well with that 5-way split. She is an excellent example of the type of person we need in the House, as well as the type of person who scares the GOP shitless (but I repeat myself). The GOP legislature drew the new district maps specifically to hurt her chances. It would be a great victory for truth, justice, and the American way if she won again.
WaterGirl
@Albatrossity: It would, indeed! thank you
hells littlest angel
Thank you. Competitive House races — including my own district — is exactly where I want to put my money this fall.
H.E.Wolf
Thank you for these ongoing series of posts!
Davids, Luria, and Wild were all on the 2018 Balloon Juice list, and all 3 won their races that midterm year… let’s keep the jackal mojo going in 2022.
suilebhan
Happy to help. Here’s to a blunami.
Ksmiami
To win, the Fed needs to stop raising interest rates; it’s not going to cure inflation and it’s spiraling the economy into a downturn. I like Powell, but his team and approach is not going to solve the issues of low labor supply, oil shocks and pandemic supply chain gyrations.
ruemara
Thank you. thank you! I am not donating until I start doing more voiceovers again because I am being mugged. But once this passes.
Ksmiami
@H.E.Wolf: I just gave separately to Davids and Luria
rikyrah
love these posts. thank you
WaterGirl
If anyone else wants to make their case for someone who should be added to this list, send me an email message.
JeanneT
I’m making regular contributions to Hilary Scholten in Michigan’s newly drawn 3rd congressional district, where she has a chance of beating a very tRumpish Republican opponent John Gibbs (the guy who beat Peter Meijer in the primaries). The race has been rated a toss up with a slight Dem lean. Anyone who can give her a $$ boost should!
WaterGirl
@JeanneT: Can you, or someone (!) write that up with perhaps more information, similar to what Wolvesvalley did for PA-07, and send it to me by email?
Are you in Michigan? If you make a good case, we can add her to the list.
edit: it would be nice to not have that seat go too a crazy person.
Kent
I would add Marie Gluesenkamp Perez here in the WA-3rd. The incumbent GOP-er Jaime Herrera Beutler went down to a rabid Q-Anon Trumper type. So I think the seat is winnable, especially in light of Dobbs. And Marie is a really good candidate for this district.
Skepticat
Thanks for helping me decide where my paltry donations might be the most effective. I’ve kicked in as much as I can (though not as much as I would like) to each campaign, as it’s our lives at stake.
WaterGirl
@Kent: Would you mind doing a little research? If she has a crazy amount of cash on hand, for instance, she doesn’t need our money. Is she running ads? Is she coming on strong about Dobbs?
How is the race rated? Lean Dem, Lean R, toss-up? How close is it?
If you could do that and send me the info, I would greatly appreciate it.
Kent
I don’t know how to find cash on hand. So far only two polls of the district.
The most recent has Joe Kent leading by +4 The one before that had Marie leading by +2. It was a Trump +4 district in 2020.
After Jaime Herrera Beutler was defeated in the primary it shifted from sold Republican to leans Republican by Cooks.
She is running very hard on Dobbs and calling out Kent for his MAGA extremism, especially on abortion. Other than Dobbs she is running more or less as a blue collar Democrat which suits this district.
It will be an uphill battle. But it is winnable I think. We shall see.
WaterGirl
@Kent: Okay, I have added her to the list, the reason being, well, you’ll find out in the post tomorrow. :-)