This has been a long week and next is going to be just as long, so after tonight I’m going to try to keep the updates shorter for the next ten days or so. I appreciate your understanding.
Before we dig in, I want to just take a moment and highlight what is going on in Iran. I’ve got the time and energy to do one post a day, which, until the Ukrainians defeat the Russians, is going to be it. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t other things that need our attention. Ordinarily I’d be doing complete posts on them.
The Iranian government has once again turned off the Internet within Iran. The last time they did this they used the information blackout as cover to kill at least 300 Iranians. Before they pulled the plug earlier today, I saw videos of at least two people murdered by Iran’s security services/law enforcement. One was a young man. The other a 10 year old girl. Both shot in the head.
⚠️ #Iran is now subject to the most severe internet restrictions since the November 2019 massacre.
▶️ Mobile networks largely shut down (MCI, Rightel, Irancell – partial)
▶️ Regional disruptions observed during protests
▶️ Instagram, WhatsApp restrictedhttps://t.co/8cCHIJA2Oi— NetBlocks (@netblocks) September 21, 2022
Despite this, some video is still filtering out:
#Iranian protesters gather tonight in ValiAsr #Tehran chanting “Death to the Dictator,” surrounding both sides of the street and walking between cars#MahsaAmini #Mahsa_Amini #مهسا_امینی #IranProtests #iran pic.twitter.com/zMBMosXVvv
— Lisa Daftari (@LisaDaftari) September 22, 2022
I honestly am not sure what is going to happen here. My experience and expertise in working on these issues tells me that the Iranian government’s response is going to be swift, violent, and overwhelming just like every time Iranians begin to rise up. But something feels different this time. This uprising isn’t centered around a “reformist” candidate who still had to be chosen by the Supreme Religious Authority to appear on the presidential election ballot. It is a spontaneous uprising caused by the horrific extra-judicial execution of a 22 year old woman visiting the city with her family. Hope is not a strategy, but sometimes hope is all one has. If you can, spare a thought for the people of Iran.
Here’s Presizent Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukrainians!
All our defenders!
Today I want to say special words of gratitude. Gratitude to all our people who defend our state, defend independence.
Ukraine held out after a full-scale attack by Russia. Ukraine managed to unite the world around the struggle for freedom. Ukraine managed to liberate a significant part of the territory the Russian troops invaded. Ukraine liberates people from Russian captivity.
And Ukraine managed to change the course of the war so that every occupier, even the most inadequate one, felt that we can win and are moving towards victory.
I am thankful to everyone who fights and works for this! For the sake of our victory.
It is precisely to the fact of Ukrainian strength that the leadership of Russia reacts, changing tactics and trying to draw even more Russian citizens and resources into the war.
Russia’s decision on mobilization is a frank admission that their regular army, which has been prepared for decades to take over a foreign country, did not withstand and crumbled. And now, due to mobilization, Russia’s war against Ukraine for the majority of Russian citizens is not something on TV or on the Internet, but something that has entered every Russian home.
I’ve held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today. The questions are clear. Frontline. Provision of our military. And new threats created by Russia.
I will note right away: any decisions of the Russian leadership do not change anything for Ukraine. We should care only about our tasks. This is the liberation of our country, the protection of our people and the mobilization of global support for the implementation of our tasks.
Diplomatic mobilization of the entire international community is now taking place.
The circle of those who support us now is not limited to our traditional partners and those who openly supported our state after February 24. Now almost everyone supports us – this is the reaction to new Russian escalation steps.
In particular, the farce with the preparation of sham referenda in the occupied territory demonstrates what happened in 2014 in Crimea and Donbas.
And I am grateful to everyone in the world who supported us. Who clearly condemned another Russian lie.
Grateful to President Biden and all American friends. To President Macron, Chancellor Scholz, the President of Finland and all our Polish brothers, the Baltic states, Mr. Borrell, Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, Charles Michel, the OSCE and all Europeans from Iceland to Romania, who will never be deceived by Russia again.
I am thankful to Britain for the support! Türkiye! Thank you Canada! Thanks also to all those who now privately express their support for Ukraine.
When Russia declares that it supposedly wants negotiations, but announces mobilization… When Russia knows Ukraine’s clear position about the impossibility of a diplomatic process after Russia holds any sham referenda…
Everything is clear to everyone. Russia itself buries the prospect of negotiations with its own hands.
I will explain to the Russians what is happening in Russian.
Protests against mobilization took place in the cities of Russia – albeit not massive, but they took place. And they take place. And this is an indicator. Not only in Moscow and St. Petersburg. We know the real mood in the regions of Russia.
We see that people in Dagestan, in Buryatia, in other national republics and regions of Russia understand that they were simply thrown. Thrown to death.
Why, for example, Dagestanis or anyone else should die in the Kharkiv region or near Donetsk? Because one person in Russia decided so – for all the citizens of Russia. There is no other reason. That’s what he wants.
You are already accomplices in all these crimes, murders and torture of Ukrainians.
Because you were silent. Because you are silent.
And now it’s time for you to choose. For men in Russia, this is a choice to die or live, to become a cripple or to preserve health. For women in Russia, the choice is to lose their husbands, sons, grandchildren forever, or still try to protect them from death, from war, from one person.
Just think about the number of people they want to take away!
We know for sure that the conscription letters for 300,000 people were printed and signed in advance, even before this decision on mobilization appeared. Our intelligence has proven it. But the Russian leadership is preparing to take up to a million men into the army – this is the key thing they are now silent about.
We know that they will take everyone indiscriminately. Not only the military in the reserve, but any men. Anyone who will be so intimidated that he will be more afraid of avoiding war than of dying in war.
55 thousand Russian soldiers died in this war in six months. Tens of thousands are wounded and maimed. Want more? No? Then protest. Fight back. Run away. Or surrender to Ukrainian captivity. These are options for you to survive.
Russian mothers! Have no doubt that the children of the top officials of your state will not be sent to the war against Ukraine. Those who make decisions in your country take care of their children. And they do not even bury your children.
And we return ours.
A very important briefing was held today. Head of the Office Yermak, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Budanov, Head of the Security Service Maliuk, Minister of Internal Affairs Monastyrskyi. They told the details of our operation to release 215 warriors, the details of the exchange. We do everything so that society and the world can see how Ukraine protects people and basic human values.
Once again, I congratulate 215 families and our entire country on the return of the heroes.
I am thankful to everyone who helps Ukraine!
Eternal glory to all who fight for Ukraine!
Glory to our indomitable and brave people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here’s their updated map for today:
BrigGen Ryder, the DOD Spokesperson, held a for attribution briefing earlier today. His intro was all about a SecDef initiative to support and strengthen military families, so we’ll go right to the Q&A.
Q (Lita Baldor): Hi, Pat. Thank you. Two things: One, there’s been increasing rhetoric coming out of Russia on the threats to use nuclear weapons if Russian territory comes under attack. What is the Pentagon’s comment on that? Has there been any changes to any posture at all, or any requests for — by any of the allies for increased protection in regard to those latest statements?
And then I have one — one sort of little data question. I think you said the other day that there’s $2.2 billion or so remaining in PDA until September 30th. Does all of that expires — I’m just sort of double-check. Does all of that expire if not used by the 30th, or is that — is there any move that that is extended? Thank you.
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks very much, Lita. In terms of the statements or the announcements coming out of Russia, it does — it does not affect the department’s commitment to continue working closely with our international partners and our allies on providing Ukraine with the support that it needs in their fight to defend their country.
In terms of the — the money, for example, the USAI money is two-year money, so that is available through September of 2023. In terms of the — the funding for the PDAs, I will get back to you on that question.
OK, let me go ahead and go to the room here. Tony?
Q (Tony): Can you talk a little bit about the Pentagon’s analysis of the 300,000 reservists — recruits that have been called up by Putin in terms of, where does the pool come from? Largely, where will it come from? And roughly how long will it take to give them any minimal training to be minimally-combat-effective and deployed? Any feel for that yet?
GEN. RYDER: Sure. Well, I — I think you’re seeing a lot of this in open press and in terms of what — what the Russians themselves have said in terms of where these forces would come from, and my understanding is these would primarily be reservists or members of the — the Russian military that had retired and were in a individual ready-reserve type of status. All of that to say, it’s our assessment that it would take time for Russia to train and prepare and equip these forces. And I think it’s important also to point out here that while in many ways this may address a manpower issue for Russia, what’s not clear is whether or not it could significantly address the command and control, the logistics, the sustainment, and importantly, the morale issues that we’ve seen Russian forces in Ukraine experience.
Q (Tony): And if I can get a separate question, on the follow up on Lita’s question about the nuclear threat, to what extent has the nuclear — you know, that threat, veiled or whatever, inhibited the United States from sending over longer range weapons, like ATACMS, tanks of some kind, other weapons? I mean, have the Russians basically got a strategic victory in that respect, in terms of red lines that the U.S. now is afraid to cross, in terms of weapons shipments?
GEN. RYDER: So I think we’ve been very clear all along that our focus is on continuing to have a very open and — and rigorous dialogue with our Ukrainian counterparts and the international community, in terms of our allies and our partners, on what are Ukraine’s needs. And we will continue to have those conversations and we’ll continue to think through not only what they need in the medium to long term but also what they need now.
So — so I don’t see those conversations being impacted by this situation. You know, it — it — I think it’s important here too to — to provide a little bit of context, in the sense that if we go back in time a little bit, it — Ukraine — Russia invaded Ukraine and attempted to annex all of Ukraine, you know, by virtue of invading them, failed in that strategic objective, and so they scaled down the scope of their operational objectives, and even those aren’t going well, due to Ukraine’s counter-offensive and the issues that I’ve highlighted, in terms of logistics and sustainment.
So by making these types of announcements about sham referenda or threats about attacking territory, it doesn’t change the facts — operational facts on the ground, which are that the Ukrainians will continue to fight for their country, the Russian military is dealing with some significant challenges on the ground, and the international community will stand behind Ukraine as they fight to defend their country from an invasion.
Q (Tony): Can I ask you one …
(Sure)
… one quick weapons question? To what extent are — is the provision — providing of U.S. tanks, M1A1s or A2s — I guess it’d be A2s though — is that in the interagency debate right now at — at any level, in terms of whether you’ll provide or not?
GEN. RYDER: So I’m not going to get into any specific systems that may be under discussion. Again, we’ve provided a variety of capabilities that the Ukrainians are using to great effect and we’re going to continue to have those discussions and — and look at a variety of capabilities in the days ahead. So thank you.
Let me go ahead and go to Jim and then I’ll go back out to the phone.
Q (Jim): General, just to — just to be clear, in your answer to Tony, you’re saying that the Russian military still has these command and control, the logistics problems, the — you know, just supply sustainment, getting weapons to the places, and by adding 300,000 people they’re just compounding those problems?
GEN. RYDER: I — I mean, that — that’s speculation but certainly if you are already having significant challenges and haven’t addressed some of those systemic, strategic issues that make any large military force capable, there is nothing to indicate that it’s going to get any easier by adding more variables to the equation.
Q (Jim): And — and just to be clear, if — if President Biden called up 300,000 Reservists, he’d get — he’d get a group of well trained folks who — many of — most of them in — in — in units, able to move out in, like, days, weeks or months. That’s not what the Russians are going to get, right?
GEN. RYDER: Again, I’m — I’m not in the Russian military, I’ve never been in the Russian military, I don’t plan to ever be in the Russian military, so I’m not going to speak for them, but I — I think we’ve seen some of the systemic challenges that they have in their force and I — I think they will have their work cut out for them. Thank you.
Let me go ahead and — back out to the phone here. Let’s go to Sangmin Lee from Radio Free Asia.
Q (Sangmin): Yes, I have a question on the indication that Russia actually purchased weapons from North Korea. You mentioned before that you do have indications that Russia has approached North Korea to request munitions. So do you have indications that the purchase has actually occurred now?
GEN. RYDER: Thanks for the question, Sangmin. So I — all I’ll say is we stand by the information that we provided earlier, and beyond that, I don’t have any additional updates to provide. Thank you.
Fadi?
Q (Fadi): … so I’m going to go back to your — to your answer about the — the reports that there were (inaudible) service in — in Russia. So is — is your understanding that these 300,000 are the troops that will be introduced into theater in Ukraine or some of them might be replacing other forces that are ready to fight inside of Russia? And by — and by that, I mean are you detecting any movement of new forces to enter Ukraine from the Russian side or any indications there are — certain units are preparing to enter Ukraine?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so — so that’s really a question for the — the Russian military to address, in terms of how exactly they plan to use those forces. Again, I think in the context of the challenges that Russia finds itself in right now, as it pertains to Ukraine and as evidenced by the — the rationale that was provided by President Putin and others, in terms of why they’re calling up these forces, it’s clear that it’s intended to help supplement and augment the broader militaries as they conduct this — their — their operations in Ukraine. But in terms of the specifics, Fadi, that — that’s just not something I have insight into.
And then the second part of your question? I’m sorry.
Q (Fadi): Has the Pentagon detected any move — new movement or — or indications that new units are being prepared to — to enter in Ukraine?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so what — what I would say, again, without getting into a — a high level of operational detail, is that we’ve seen indications of some small numbers of replacement forces being moved into Ukraine to essentially help the Russian military shore up some of their defensive lines, but — but nothing on a — on a large scale at this stage.
Again, the battle fleet — battlefield remains very fluid, very dynamic. And so, again, this is something that we’ll continue to monitor, and I know obviously the Ukrainians are monitoring very closely as well.
Q (Idrees): Hey, Pat. You mentioned, in terms of the — I think you said it might — it would take some time for them to train and — and equip the — the folks that they’re mobilizing. Is there a sense of how long that would be? Are we talking weeks, months, next year?
And — and in the other sense of how many folks have already been sort of handed the paper to start mobilizing since the announcement was made?
GEN. RYDER: Thanks, Idrees. So — so really, you know, what I would say is time will tell. It’s just something we’ll have to keep an eye on and — and I’m not going to speculate.
And in terms of the current status of that call-up, that — that’s something that I would refer — have to refer you to that the Russian Ministry of Defense. I don’t have any information to provide on that.
Q (Luis): And when you talked about the assessment about the Ukraine — about the Russian mobilization, you said that it would address some of their manpower …
GEN. RYDER: I said that — that my — our assessment is that it would potentially address some of their manpower issues.
Q (Luis): … Mr. Kahl had said a couple of weeks ago, you know, between 70 and 80,000, like, Russian casualties. Is there a — a more accurate assessment of the Russian casualty count since then?
GEN. RYDER: I — I don’t have any updates to provide on that.
Q (Luis): Now, what is the latest operational update on the situation in Ukraine?
GEN. RYDER: So broadly speaking, Luis — Luis, what I would tell you is that we continue to see Ukrainian forces conduct their counter-offensive operations in the Kharkiv, in the Kherson regions. The Russians continue to conduct operations in the Bakhmut area, with the Ukrainians holding a line, but — but largely speaking, no significant updates for me to provide today on that.
OK, let me go back onto the phone line and then I’ll come over here to Carla. Do we have Ellen from Synopsis?
Q (Heather) : Great, thank you so much. Two questions unrelated to each other. But the first is that there is a — been reporting on social media and in some outlets about a USV that appeared on a beach in Crimea. I was wondering if you can confirm that this USV did appear? And also, if that was one of the USVs that the United States provided back in April?
And then on the vaccine mandate, I was wondering if you’re able to — and you might have to take this for the record — I was wondering if you know if the military and the Pentagon actually have the ability to provide the FDA licensed Pfizer and Moderna shots or if they’re still using EUA licensed of those shots?
GEN. RYDER: … on — on your second question, we’ll — we’ll take that one and — and come back to you.
In terms of the — the — the reports out there about a — I think you call it — call it a sea vehicle — yeah, we — I don’t have anything on that. Thank you.
Q (Sylvie): Hello. Thank you. I would like to go back to Putin’s nuclear threat. Is it the assessment of the Pentagon that it has — Putin has shifted the — Russia’s nuclear weapon use policy and that it will apply to the — to the Ukrainian territories that Moscow wants to annex?
GEN. RYDER: Yes, thanks, Sylvie. Yes, I’m not going to comment on Russian nuclear policy. What I would tell you is that — that, you know, from where we sit right now we have not seen anything that would cause us to change our own posture. Certainly we’ll continue to — to watch this closely and take any kind of rhetoric seriously. But again at this stage we’ve seen nothing that would indicate that we need to change any approach from our perspective. Thank you.
Q: Thank you.
GEN. RYDER: OK.
Sir?
Q (Mike): Ukraine asked for four MQ1C Gray Eagles and yesterday Secretary Austin got a letter asking the secretary to review — from Congress asking to speed the review or to go with that review. In the last 24 hours has there been any progress on — on looking at that particular case for Ukraine?
GEN. RYDER: Thank you. First of all, what I would say in terms of congressional correspondence, you know, it would be inappropriate for me to talk about that from the podium and will certainly respond to Congress accordingly. What I would say in terms of providing any kind of specific equipment to Ukraine, it’s something that we’re always discussing. We are aware that Ukrainians have asked for Gray Eagles or have an interest in Gray Eagles. No decisions have been made in that regard. Deputy Under Secretary for Policy Baker recently, as you may recall, indicated that we are — things that we’re considering as we look into this include technology, protection, survivability in the Ukrainian battlespace. And so — and then of course the other thing we have to think through like on any system are readiness impacts on our own force, in this case particularly the Army. So, again, no decisions have been made in that regard.
I would highlight the fact that throughout the course of this conflict, going as far back to the first tranche of USAI, Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, we been providing Ukraine with a variety of ISR capabilities: 22 Pumas, we provided ScanEagles, we provided Switchblades, Phoenix Ghost. And so again we continue to maintain a robust dialogue with Ukraine and the international community about what we, the international community, can do to support Ukraine. But that’s where we’re at at this point.
Q (Mike): So on those couple of points from Ms. Baker the other day, survivability and readiness impacts, going just off the top of my head, I think that there are about 286 of those systems in the United States Army’s arsenal right now. And they’re going through pretty costly tech refresh. So should the taxpayer be concerned about the survivability of those 280-some odd systems or the four that the Ukraine — it’s the Ukrainian battle space, particularly costly for — for those systems …
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so let’s — so let’s not mix apples and oranges here. You know, what we’re talking about is security assistance to Ukraine. When it comes to the employment of U.S. military capabilities, again, I’d refer you to the Army to talk about their own systems.
Certainly, we’re going to consider a variety of options, in terms of how we employ those kinds of capabilities, the operating environments that we employ them in. No — and just broadly speaking as an airman, when we do employ aerial systems, it’s more than just the aircraft, it’s a variety of capabilities that are supporting those aircraft. So there’s a lot that goes into employing any type of aircraft.
So I just highlight those as factors that, like any system, we would have to take into account before we introduce it to the battlefield. Thanks.
OK, let — let me go ahead here and then I’ll go back out to the phone. Yes, sir?
Q : Thank you, General. Regarding to other area, like Syria, do you have any communications or contact with the Russia counterpart to avoid any conflicts between the two armies, especially, you know, we have a — a — U.S. bases in Syria, and additional for — that we have even Russian troops there.
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so we do maintain regular military-to-military contact with Russia, the Russian military, as it pertains to Syria. You know, I talked about — the other day about the fact that particularly the airspace there is — is contested. And so going as far back as the counter-ISIS campaign — the early days of the counter-ISIS campaign, when Russia introduced forces, that has been a longstanding policy and approach.
And I would encourage you to contact Central Command or Air Forces Central and they can provide you with much more detail.
Let me go out to the phone here. Lara Seligman, Politico?
Q (Lara): Hey, Pat. Thanks for doing this. Two questions.
One, I just wanted to follow up on the questions about the mobilization, and I’m wondering if you could — if I could ask specifically what does the Pentagon assess is the — more — the quality of the people that Putin is calling up? I know these are supposed to be former troops but what kind of training have they had and what kind of difference will they make on the battlefield?
And then a related question, what is the Pentagon’s assessment of what Ukrainian forces are going to need for the winter? And how are we helping them with that?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah. Thanks, Lara. In terms of the specific individuals that may be affected by a Russian partial mobilization, again, I’m seeing a lot of the same press reporting that you are that’s — that’s coming out of Russia. And so I — I certainly would not want to speculate or generalize about specific individuals. I — I just don’t have that information to provide.
In terms of Ukraine and the winter, as, you know, evidenced by the PDA announcement that we put out recently, we are — we are — we do continue to communicate with the Ukrainians and — and our international partners and allies in terms of what their needs may be for the wintertime — and again, we’re providing some winter gear — but we’ll continue to have those conversations and support them as we — as we head into the winter months here. Thank you.
Q (Kasim): Yeah, thank you very much, General, for taking my question. I was going to ask about the — this prisoner swap. Based on the — the information you have, could you just tell us if — how many other U.S. veterans are currently fighting in Ukraine? Are — are — are there any other veterans at the hands of Russians?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks, Kasim. So I — I would refer you to the State Department, in terms of the status of U.S. citizens overseas. That — that’s not information that we track necessarily here in the Department of Defense. Obviously, our focus is on our — our actively serving military members. Thank you.
This is the unmanned aquatic vehicle that BrigGen Ryder was asked about:
Russian sources reported that this afternoon, an object resembling an unmanned surface vehicle of some kind washed up on the shore of Sevastopol.
Seen in the distance on the third photo is a Russian Ropucha-class landing ship (Project 775) of the Black Sea Fleet. pic.twitter.com/XLMK56zYSa
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) September 21, 2022
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recently updated assessments:
KHERSON/ 1250 UTC 22 SEP/ On 22 SEP, Ukrainian Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) missions continued, with the destruction of 15 additional Russian air defense complexes. These SEAD missions have allowed UKR to double the number of close air sorties to 41 missions. pic.twitter.com/5fnX8saskh
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 22, 2022
IZIUM/ 1214 UTC 22 SEP/ RU sources indicate that their counter-attacks have been rebuffed by UKR forces west of the P-66 HWY. Within the last 24 Hrs, UKR has consolidated holdings North of Yarova. Lyman isolated by UKR crossings of the Donets. pic.twitter.com/z9xsESqhYm
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 22, 2022
For our resident train and railway enthusiast!
A train full of t-62 tanks rolled up to the train station in Yasinovataya, next to Donetsk city, and then moments later the station exploded. pic.twitter.com/fLGngd1Rok
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) September 22, 2022
Green marker is the camera, bottom right blue marker is the fire. 5.4km to the line. pic.twitter.com/EAD4AMe503
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) September 22, 2022
Speaking of things that go boom, it’s HIMARS O’Clock!
#Ukraine: Previously unseen and very rare footage of the moment of impact of two M31A1 GMRLS missiles fired from the HIMARS/M270 system hitting a Russian ammunition staging point in #Kharkiv Oblast. At least one vehicle is seen to be destroyed as the munitions detonate. pic.twitter.com/mDelWDkc5e
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 22, 2022
As you can imagine from the past couple of days, panic has set in among Russians who are eligible for the newly instated draft.
In related news, there's was a 100+ car line at the Mongolia border crossing at Kyakhta (home of Russia's 37th Motorized Infantry Brigade).https://t.co/NUsQ8olx1e pic.twitter.com/wi3ZsAwIuZ
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) September 22, 2022
Just spoke with a woman from a small village of 450 people in Buryatia. She said that local authorities tried to hand out 20 draft notices, including to several in their 50s. Even if many turned away, would still produce far more than 300k conscripts if repeated across Russia. https://t.co/s8wWbQoPk7
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) September 22, 2022
Part of the issue here is that there is a classified section of the mobilization order that seems to authorize a draft of a million men.
A source tells Novaya Gazeta that the secret seventh clause in Putin's mobilisation decree allows the Russian MoD to call up 1m people. As @KofmanMichael has noted: "Shoigu's number of 300,000 is just a notional figure that probably has no relationship to what's really happening" https://t.co/g5JsaR6OQ0 pic.twitter.com/kiltcuvOal
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) September 22, 2022
I’ve seen multiple reports of Russians with no military experience being drafted. And of conscripted Russians being sent directly to Ukraine after processing, rather than being sent for any form of training.
Also, whether its 300,000 Russians mobilized or a million of them, it isn’t going to make a difference. More poorly trained, or not trained at all, poorly equipped, and poorly led Russian soldiers with low to no morale is just going to give the Ukrainians more targets. They are not going to somehow be the magic bullet that turns things around for Putin.
The Washington Post reports that the US has sent private warnings to Russia telling them not to use nuclear weapons:
The attempt by the White House to cultivate what’s known in the nuclear deterrence world as “strategic ambiguity” comes as Russia continues to escalate its rhetoric about possible nuclear weapons use amid a domestic mobilization aimed at stanching Russian military losses in eastern Ukraine.
The State Department has been involved in the private communications with Moscow, but officials would not say who delivered the messages or the scope of their content. It was not clear whether the United States had sent any new private messages in the hours since Russian President Vladimir Putin issued his latest veiled nuclear threat during a speech announcing a partial mobilization early Wednesday, but a senior U.S. official said the communication has been happening consistently over recent months.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote Thursday in a post on Telegram that territory in eastern Ukraine would be “accepted into Russia” after the completion of staged “referendums” and vowed to strengthen the security of those areas.
To defend that annexed land, Medvedev said, Russia is able to use not only its newly mobilized forces, but also “any Russian weapon, including strategic nuclear ones and those using new principles,” a reference to hypersonic weapons.
“Russia has chosen its path,” Medvedev added. “There is no way back.”
The comment came a day after Putin suggested Russia would annex occupied lands in Ukraine’s south and east, and incorporate the regions formally into what Moscow considers its territory. He said he was not bluffing when he vowed to use all means at Russia’s disposal to defend the country’s territorial integrity — a veiled reference to the country’s nuclear arsenal.
Biden administration officials have emphasized that this isn’t the first time the Russian leadership has threatened to use nuclear weapons since the start of the war on Feb. 24, and have said there is no indication Russia is moving its nuclear weapons in preparation for an imminent strike.
Still, the recent statements from the Russian leadership are more specific than previous comments and come at a time when Russia is reeling on the battlefield from a U.S.-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Whereas previous Kremlin statements appeared to be aimed at warning the United States and its allies against going too far in helping Ukraine, Putin’s most recent comments suggested Russia is considering using a nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine to freeze gains and force Kyiv and its backers into submission, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, a nonproliferation advocacy group in Washington.
“What everyone needs to recognize is that this is one of, if not the most, severe episodes in which nuclear weapons might be used in decades,” Kimball said. “The consequences of even a so-called ‘limited nuclear war’ would be absolutely catastrophic.”
For years, U.S. nuclear experts have worried that Russia might use smaller tactical nuclear weapons, sometimes referred to as “battlefield nukes,” to end a conventional war favorably on its terms — a strategy sometimes described as “escalate to de-escalate.”
On Thursday, Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, told the U.K.’s ITV News that it is possible Russia will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine “to stop our offensive activity and to destroy our state.”
“This is a threat for other countries,” Skibitskyi said. “The blast of a tactical nuclear weapon will have an impact not only in Ukraine but the Black Sea region.”
The Ukrainians have tried to signal that even a Russian nuclear strike wouldn’t force them into capitulation — and in fact could have the opposite effect.
“Threatening with nuclear weapons … to Ukrainians?” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, tweeted on Wednesday. “Putin have not yet understood who he is dealing with.”
In an interview with CBS News’s “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday, Biden was asked what he would tell Putin if the Russian leader is considering using nuclear weapons in the conflict against Ukraine.
“Don’t. Don’t. Don’t,” Biden said. “You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.”
Biden declined to detail how the United States would respond, saying only that the reaction would be “consequential” and would depend “on the extent of what they do.”
Much more at the link!
Obligatory!
Despite its own suffering in the face of Russia’s brutal invasion, Ukraine has donated 30,000 metric tons of grain through the @WFP to alleviate Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis and funded another 50,000 metric tons of grain for Ethiopia and Somalia.
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) September 22, 2022
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Open thread!
zhena gogolia
I listened to the part where Zelenskyy addresses the Russians. I wonder how many will hear it.
Kuleba was great on Colbert:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjUHY2XgIxE
Ksmiami
Russia is the sick man of Europe. It needs to defeated and defanged. There is no other option.
SpaceUnit
I want to think that Xi has laid down the law to Putin about the use of nukes, but hell if I know.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I completely understand why Biden wants to be vague about the warnings, but I wonder from Adam or others here who understand these things far (far far) better than I do…what would the possible responses be? If, God forbid, putin actually does use nukes against Ukraine, what are the possible/likely responses from the US, from European countries, etc?
Mm-hmm. Say it louder for the people in the back.
Thank you as always, Adam. Whether your updates are brief or not, they are always incredibly appreciated.
West of the Cascades
@zhena gogolia: Wow. Thanks for linking. Ukraine has Zelenskyy, Zalushny, Kuleba, we have Biden, Austin, Blinken. All praise to the Ukrainian people and military for what they are doing, and thank goodness for the leaders who have stood up in this time in their country, and in ours.
Gin & Tonic
Great thread by Timothy Snyder on the sham “referenda” that are coming:
Martin
Sometimes you just need more meat for the grind, I guess.
Considering we saw guys being deployed with weapons older than the USSR at the start of the war, I wonder what the fuck these guys are heading to the front with.
How dramatic would it be if Biden issued a Defense Production Order to prohibit the sale of ammunition to the public other than law enforcement agencies so manufacturers can supply Ukraine?
Carlo Graziani
Christ, Dr. Silverman, you packed too much bait in this update.
OK, trains. How does a train full of tanks get to Donetsk City nowadays? Pretty sure they didn’t start out at Belgorod and go through Starobilsk. So the Russians have, quite logically, started using their logistical hub at Rostov to service both the Donbas and the Southern theater. Which is going to screw up some scheduling for the Crimea-bound trains, no doubt. I suppose they decided that Donetsk City would be their next distribution hub. And the Ukrainians, knowing this had to start happening, got busy kabooming the trains. Those guys don’t miss a trick.
Also, any chance of geolocating that HIMARS strike in Kharkiv province? It’s kind of interesting, because the farther East it is, the closer it gets to that last N-S line the Russians have, the one to Starobilsk. It’s very clear now that the Ukrainians regard Russian train lines as their jugular veins, and are very determined to slice them…
Spanky
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
First, the Russians discover that their deployed nuclear subs have gone missing. Then their computer-controlled military infrastructure stops working. Then, maybe, things start to go boom.
Bill Arnold
This, and some of the rest of the (translated) section in Russian, is interesting.
(Also, it’s true.)
Shalimar
Maybe Russia’s new strategy is to overwhelm Ukraine with 300,000 POWs they have to care for? It doesn’t seem like this cannon fodder is going to be useful for anything else.
Andrya
@Spanky: I would hope that we are already messing- big time- with their computer controlled military infrastructure.
My first thought was the same as your other thought- we sink the Black Sea fleet.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
I’ve been assuming that another reason for the “referenda” is that conscripts could be deployed to those areas under existing law. If it’s true, does anyone know if the general Russian population understands this? Such deployments would instantly make Russian conscript duty vastly more dangerous.
Lyrebird
I wondered the same when I read that part. Maybe some will, though. I remember when some of the RU police types who were captured near Kiev gave a press conference, the guys wo were brought to Belarus “for training” then were surprised to be part of an attack force. One man spoke about his hometown and his concern about what his mother was thinking now. Just a few days after that, that same town was one of the places where a bunch of moms went down to the military office and demanded to know where their boys had been sent.
So maybe some videos get through. Maybe not so many now.
ETA: Thank you again Adam. Take whatever time you need. Gotta rest.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: Given the ammosexuals already think the ammo shortages during the pandemic were because every federal agency was buying all the ammo, the answer is they already think this and they’d freak out even more.
Leto
Russian vehicles flock to Georgian border following partial military mobilization
Video of that here.
Imgur is a great place to find videos of the unrest in Iran atm.
Gin & Tonic
@Bill Arnold: There was a video circulating today, which of course I can’t find right now, of a crowd at a recruiting/mobilization office in Dagestan. The crowd was very unhappy, loudly asking why they have to go. The recruiter said something about their future, to which a local replied “we don’t have a present, who cares about the future?”
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I tried to find it for posting and couldn’t. But I did see it too.
Nettoyeur
@Martin: Now that’s a spicy meatball
Spanky
@Andrya:
Probably not. Once you’ve used an exploit, it’s out there to be analyzed and countered. One less bullet in your cyber-gun. I imagine there are a mess of them queued up and ready to be triggered, but the circumstances aren’t right yet.
Leto
@Gin & Tonic: Here you go.
Leto
@Gin & Tonic: here’s the direct twitter link.
Gin & Tonic
@Leto: Yeah, that’s the one. Nice work, thanks.
Martin
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I would imagine an overwhelming US/NATO conventional strike on pretty much anything outside of Russian airspace plus a conventional strike on the military components that initiated the strike. I think you’d get that no fly zone over Ukraine in pretty damn short order.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic:
Did you see this?
Link
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: I did. Pretty funny, even if there were some Dutch-only jokes that went over my head.
It’d be about as meaningful as a “referendum” in Zaporizhzhia.
Martin
@Andrya: I think it’s probably every sub and surface military ship outside of Russian waters. At least, that’s what my dad implied was the general plan back in the 70s when he was shadowing Soviet subs.
Subs are first strike weapons. You don’t leave them in circulation once a nuke goes off. Basically, you can’t undo a nuke, but you can act to make sure it’s the last one that goes off by removing every other one from the playing field.
I can’t imagine Putin would try. He’s already struggling just against Ukraine. He might be telling the public that they’re in a proxy war with the US, but he knows damn well the US hasn’t committed anything meaningful so far.
Mallard Filmore
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
I am just another internet rando, but my first actions would be
1) take down several miles of the Kerch bridge to Crimea
2) total sanctions, with secondary sanctions on any nation dealing with Russia
Hopefully this will be short of a direct nuclear war.
—
“It’s not so new …
… and it’s not so clear” — Owl in Pogo
Jinchi
Biden has explicitly kept the US out of direct conflict in Ukraine to avoid triggering a nuclear confrontation. That whole calculus ends if Russia goes nuclear. NATO can’t accept Putin casually using nukes in Europe without a severe cost, to prevent any future despot from trying the same stunt. The idea is an existential threat for too many of our allies.
Putin will find himself in the war with the west that he’s pretended to be fighting all along.
Carlo Graziani
In one of these threads months ago, I wrote something I still believe to be true: that the Biden Administration’s signaling to the Kremlin on nuclear weapons use (and on NBC more generally) probably began soon after the Intelligence Community’s near-clairvoyant read of Russian intentions revealed their determination to invade, sometime in November 2021. I’ll summarize it briefly here because I think it’s still relevant.
Having that kind of advance warning must necessarily have given the policy team a great gift: the possibility of examining future scenarios, and deciding in advance on preparations for and possible responses to each one. This is a gift because while most of the scenarios may never occur, any one that does (or near-enough does) already has a briefing book of options ready, averting the decision-making panic phase and allowing for calm advance analysis.
One of the key questions that this group must have asked is “what are the circumstances in which NATO intervenes in the war against Russia?” The answer cannot be “no such circumstances exist,” even if the risk of thermonuclear war is an extremal constraint. In my view the answer that likely emerged was “battlefield use of NBC,” basically because at that point certain thresholds of limited war have already been passed, and the worst has already happened.
Logically, if this decision was made, it would have made no sense to keep it a secret from the Russians (here the Dr Strangelove image posted above is apropos — Premier Kissoff’s decision to keep the Doomsday Machine secret as a surprise for the next Party Congress is the comic error that causes nuclear Armageddon in the movie). The Administration would have communicated to the Russians through military, diplomatic, and political channels at all levels that a severe response would follow any battlefield use of nerve agents or nuclear weapons, potentially starting weeks before the war’s onset, but certainly as of the invasion’s beginning. And this is consistent with the fact that the Russians have made no such use, despite the jams their army has been in, and despite the fact that their field manuals tell them that such weapons are normal tools to be used for escaping such jams.
That’s still how I read it. The NATO response to nuclear first use would not be a nuclear response, probably, at least not at first. It would more likely be a devastating air campaign that would wipe out a substantial chunk of the Special Military Operation. Probably not the whole thing — why deprive the Ukrainians of the victory they’ve earned and so richly deserve? But several BTGs in the Donbas could simply cease to exist overnight. That would carry out the existing threat, and leave room for either escalation or de-escalation. NATO has a lot of combat-loaded aviation nearby, and it’s all working fine.
Chetan Murthy
@Leto: I remember the last time there was a lot of protests, the fucking Basiji (civilian irregular militias allied to the mullahs) came out and beat people into submission. It was awful. I hope this time they get their heads handed to them, those fuckers.
Dangerman
@Spanky: A long time ago (80’s), I was speaking with someone who claimed that if a Soviet Boomer went to launch depth, it would be sunk. Foolishly, I asked what launch depth was and he just looked at me.
As you suggest, all of them have our company.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: And as Cheryl Rofer explained to us over at LG&M in a series of posts with lots of pointers, in nuclear escalation avoidance, being as open and transparent as possible about what you’ll do at every step, in reaction to every event, is a good thing, not a bad thing. Being transparent means that your adversary knows what’s coming down the pike if he decides to risk it — and cannot delude himself into imagining that he can get away with it.
Leto
@Chetan Murthy: Nov 2019. Lot of people talking about it, similarities, and how the civilian population is just not having it.
Mallard Filmore
@Chetan Murthy:
I remember when the Shaw used his military to shoot into demonstrating crowds. That did not stop the protests. Then one day the crowds started shooting back. The next day the military said “we’re gonna stay out of this fight.”
Leto
@Chetan Murthy:
Tehran tonight, protestors ripping down the sign of the Tehran Prosecutor’s Office while everyone cheers
The officers in the Islamic Republic but people inside busses and drive them to be able to shoot from them while they run over people. (title is shit, but I think people can get the picture)
Tehran tonight, Anti Regime protests
Gin & Tonic
@Mallard Filmore: When Yanukovych’s cops shot and killed the Maidan protesters, that was the end of his Presidency.
Chetan Murthy
@Leto: Perhaps Ukrainians can surreptitiously pass along URLs for “how to make Molotov cocktails”.
Lotta innocent people are gonna die, get hurt. I wish there were something we could do to help them, but anything we would try, would backfire. Like it did during the Green Revolution (I think it was called).
Kent
Also send a carrier group into the Black Sea to enforce freedom of navigation. And declare a Russian no-fly zone over every inch of Ukrainian territory including Crimea.
Perhaps invite Ukraine into NATO on the spot, bypassing all the usual paperwork.
But yes, I’m just an internet rando too.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Well I waded through that press Q&A with DOD spokesperson General Ryder and it was painful to read the inane questions. It makes me wonder if I am really really smart or the media is really dumb . . . .
Secondly, why does everybody focus on the magic number 300,000 just because a Russian General said that number. Everyone knows the Russian Government
liesis less than forthright but noooobody even questions 300,000. WeirdSister Golden Bear
@Leto: What’s interesting about this video, as well as the one of people swarming the police officer, is the large number of men leading the charge.
Obviously the women burning their headscarves are extremely brave, but they’ve also got a number of men behind them.
Spadizzly
@Gin & Tonic: @Adam L Silverman:
The locals are restless:
https://twitter.com/akhalchi/status/1572912276709179393?s=20&t=b6xuN3EeJBc5vim5wlK6aA
Lyrebird
Thank you!
I do not know how someone becomes a general in the first place, but apparently Gen Ryder did that and can also say, “you will have to ask so and so about that” over and over without losing his mind or his temper.
Last week I think it was, “So and so in Lithuania just said that if allies had sent more weapons sooner, the war could have ended sooner, what do you say to that?” Again, I know nothing about military leadership, but I know he’s not gonna say anything to that.
Cameron
I wonder if we’ll see the reverse of Iran here in the US, with violent right-wing religious mobs trying to overthrow a secular representative government. I don’t think the January 6 insurrection will prove to be a one-off.
Cameron
@Lyrebird: That Lithuanian question is a perfect example of precognitive hindsight.
Feathers
Reading Zelenskyy‘a speech, I must confess that what made me curious is this:
That’s gotta drive Putin crazy.
Grumpy Old Railroader
@Lyrebird:
He should just preface every session with “I am not gonnaa give you any clickbait answers. I will just feed you generic pablum and whenever I see an opportunity I am going to direct you to ask someone else. With that, the floor is open”
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Feathers: YES AND I LOVE IT.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Martin: This is kind of what I was…well, I don’t want to say “hoping for” because that sounds weird in context. I guess I just mean I would want there to be a substantial, tangible response. Not just like “…….hey that was bad, here are a few more sanctions” kind of thing.
Mallard Filmore
@Kent:
That would depend on the cooperation of Turkey, and a nuke going off in their neighborhood could make them jump either way. What you propose could be done with land based aircraft. Also, as in internet rando that is not in charge of navy operations, I would not send a carrier group into such a confined body of water.
Bill Arnold
@Feathers:
Much of that speech was aimed at Russia. (Good.)
Chetan Murthy
@Feathers: Is that what they call subtweeting ?
Grumpy Old Railroader
@Mallard Filmore:
If you are going to dream, dream big. Send a Carrier Group into the Caspian Sea
Chetan Murthy
@Grumpy Old Railroader: Aral Sea or GTFO
Spanky
I wouldn’t count on it happening, but if Putin gave the order to launch a nuke, I wonder if somewhere down the chain of command that order got kinda lost.
Chetan Murthy
I know women like Christiane Amanpour have been dealing with testosterone-poisoning victims for their entire lives, and still perform at the highest levels. And she can’t tell this shitbird where to fucking get off, b/c that wouldn’t be professional. Ugh.
Martin
@Kent: Not sure the Navy wants a carrier group that hemmed in, especially when they can operate just fine from the Mediterranean. Russia needs assets that close – the US doesn’t.
cintibud
@Grumpy Old Railroader: Yes. I’d like to know just what can he answer? If he isn’t going to say anything why take questions? I get so much more from Adam and the posters here than in that press conference
cain
@Jinchi:
Oh no .. it is the whole world not just the west. The consequences on that planet will be enough to cause every nation to go against them.
Putin would pretty much have to die.
Chetan Murthy
@cain: Even besides the threat of armageddon, the breaking of the taboo on first-use of nukes is already something that all his erstwhile friends/clients would oppose. India has nukes to deter PK; if PK can and will use their nukes, then that deterrence is at an end. India can’t like that.
That’s one fuckin’ Pandora’s box that Putin would be opening up. The other one he already *did* open, which is that a nuke-armed state can attack a non-nuclear neighbor with impunity — nobody can come to the aid of that non-nuke state. Every state with belligerent neighbors took careful notes. Ugh.
Jay
@Kent:
“Perhaps invite Ukraine into NATO on the spot, bypassing all the usual paperwork.”
A prerequisite of a Nation joining NATO is that they have no unresolved territorial disputes with their neighbors. That is so that NATO can’t be used as an offensive force, but only as a defensive alliance.
That doesn’t mean that NATO can’t take an active role under certain conditions in Ukraine, it means that Ukraine can’t fully join NATO until both Ukraine and Russia agree what the borders are and sign Treaties attesting to that.
Cameron
Who is the audience for the referendum charade, anyway?
Chetan Murthy
Reading Zelenskyy’s words about “desert, surrender, or die”, I wonder what UA can do to make it really easy for press-gang RU soldiers to surrender. Gotta be things they can do to make it really easy/safe. It would be a propaganda coup to get a massive number of POWs, all ready to go on TV and explain why they did, how safe it was, etc.
Ken
I kind of thought they did that in the 1990s?
Martin
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I can’t imagine that would happen. You don’t negotiate with someone willing to use nukes preemptively like that. At the same time, I think the US and NATO would work exceptionally hard to not respond with nukes, because all bets are off then.
You’d still get sanctions. I’d have to assume that Russia gets walled off so aggressively that North Korea starts looking like an oasis of free trade.
Mallard Filmore
@Chetan Murthy:
Were I an internet rando with some authority in the Russian government, I would make some very public examples of the dangers to the families of soldiers that surrender.
That would stop the POWs from going on TV. I doubt it would stop the surrenders. (“I’ll surrender if you don’t tell anyone.”)
Jay
@Ken:
They did, the Russia broke them. Something Poo-tie Poot didn’t think of, or disregarded.
Once Ukraine kicks Russia out, it will probably require a change of Government to happen in Russia for Treaties to be written and signed, to allow Ukraine full membership in NATO.
Which is why Ukraine is arranging mutual security alliance with Neighbors (eg. Georgia) and individual NATO nations.
Chetan Murthy
@Mallard Filmore: Obscure faces. They did that for the RU guy who surrendered and ended up becoming the repairman for a UA armored company on the frontline. “It is my little dream to gain Ukrainian citizenship”.
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
Surrendering with out fighting is called desertion. Russia just passed a bunch of extremely harsh laws punishing everything from draft dodging to retreating with out orders.
Mallard Filmore
@Martin:
NK has not used any nukes yet, so trade with China is maybe restricted but not shut down. When Russia throws a nuke, China will have a choice to make. For all their bluster, China’s economy is intricately interwoven into the world economy. If the USA demands, even without military force, that trade with China stop, there will be severe internal problems if they choose to side with Russia.
BruceFromOhio
Rebellions are built on hope. May the citizens of Iran outlive the government of Iran.
ETA: Thank you for the relentless updates, Dr. Silverman.
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
I have seen reports that Tajikistan (not a member of the Sanctions program) has been engaging in their own unofficial, official Sanctions program, (seizing cross border shipments between Iran and Russia) to protest SCO inactivity in regards to their Border conflict with Kazakistan.
Chetan Murthy
Jay
Not that it matters in a Nation swimming in cognative dissonance.
Tony G
There were no discipline problems when the U.S. sent hundreds of thousands of draftees to Vietnam, back in the days of my youth. I can see no downside to Putin’s mobilization strategy.
CaseyL
If things keep turning to shit in Russia, I’m thinking of the ripple effects: so much of the world’s destabilization and fascism has been funded and enabled by Russia, it would be delightful to see that spigot shut off. Seeing the UN finally take some (baby) steps against Hungary is also very good.
I’d like to think the world is really waking up to the threat of totalitarianism. One can hope.
Chetan Murthy
@CaseyL: It’s one of the reasons I donate $$ to UA. They’re fighting Fascism over there, so we (hopefully) won’t have to fight it over here. True, theirs is a just struggle, and they’ve earned all the support they’re getting. But even so, it doesn’t hurt that if they can topple Putin in the process of saving their nation, they’ll be doing the entire West a good turn.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Calling out the reservists sort made sense. But this. it’s going to be the Slaughter of the Innocents Part II Electric Booglo. Is this some weird ass phsy op like the Iranians tried on the Iraqis by sending waves a kids into combat?
Chetan Murthy
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: WarTranslated has had solid reporting (all those translated recordings fo calls between RU soldiers and their bloodthirsty wives).
Frankensteinbeck
@CaseyL:
While I expect zero love for the West, if Putin goes I doubt seriously his successor will have Putin’s obsessive hard-on for fucking with everyone else. That is very much his KGB legacy showing.
Jay
Chetan Murthy
@Frankensteinbeck: And even if he does, he’ll have his hands full just cementing his control over Russia …. so maybe they’ll ignore us for a few years. And a few years …. is all we need for Arizona’s overwhelmingly brown kids to become young adults. And all over the US, same story.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Jay: My queendom for the day these yutzes realize calling a Jewish man a Nazi is 327 kinds of fucked up and bullshit.
Kent
@Jay: You talking about bureaucratic paperwork in a normal and sane peacetime world.
I would suggest that in the event that Russia starts lobbing nukes then all bets are off. And if the US wants to involve NATO in the defense of Ukraine they will find a way to make the paperwork line up.
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I am guessing that the plot is that the Mobilized will be used to ‘free up” rear echalon assets for deployment to the front lines, and will get “on the job” “training” in low conflict defensive positions.
Not a good plan,
Not even a Baldric rate cunning plan.
Jay
@Kent:
It’s not up to the US, it’s up to NATO.
You are using the same “One Weird Trick” garbage that Tankies use to rewrite the US Constitution.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Thanks once again for your invaluable updates, Adam.
I was recommended this Business Insider article today. Found it interesting:
Russia’s early resilience to sanctions is fading – its economy is on the back foot and Moscow could soon lose its place among the world’s energy superpowers.
Calouste
@Jay: Seems an excellent way to ensure that people go in hiding and stop showing up for work.
You can’t just randomly draft people, you have to make sure that people with critical jobs keep doing them, at least until you have replacements.
Mike in NC
Iran was a rotten dictatorship under the Shah, and it got even worse under the ayatollahs. Be careful what you wish for.
VeniceRiley
China says territorial integrity of Ukraine must be respected
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqtaHY4ASfc&feature=share&utm_source=EJGixIgBCJiu2KjB4oSJEQ
sab
@VeniceRiley: Wow!
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: It wasn’t the Basiji who beat Iranians into submission in 2019, although tbey tried. It was security forces using snipers and machine guns, from helicopters even. Reuters estimated that 1500 protesters were murdered during “Bloody November.”
YY_Sima Qian
@VeniceRiley: Chinese Foreign Minister did not necessarily venture away from standard Chinese boiler plate with respect to the Ukraine crisis during his speech at the UNSC. However, reading between the lines there is a clear shift in tone. No explicit references to Russia’s “legitimate security interests”, nor explicit criticism of the US/NATO for “pouring oil on fire” by providing military support to Ukraine. The rhetorically pro-Russian neutrality has just become less pro-Russian & more neutral to my ears.
If Putin lets loose any nukes, then the straddling position that China/India/Turkey/Brazil/Global South have taken becomes untenable.
YY_Sima Qian
@SpaceUnit: According to EU reports, Chinese FM Wang Yi just reaffirmed to Joseph Borrell that WMDs “should not be used under any circumstances”. China has also called for immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. I think China’s assessment of Putin’s utility (though not necessarily of Russia’s) may be starting to shift.
Geminid
@Leto: The Europe based news site Iran News Wire is another good source for video of the protests. Despite the curtailment of mobile networks, they are still posting video from recent events including one of people gathered at Mahsa Amini’s gravesite this morning to commemorate what would have been her 23rd birthaday.
@IranNewsWire also posted a Google Earth map locating protests in 100 Iranian cities and towns.
daveNYC
@Cameron: It has to be for internal consumption only, but everything I’ve seen about it is so farcical that it’s basically preaching to the choir.
Four days to setup a weekend of voting in a war zone where they don’t have voter roles or even a good handle on who lives there period. Plus they’re going with online voting as an option, which, yeah, and I’ve even read that they’re looking to let 13 year-olds vote, plus Ukrainians living inside Russia.
Even in the realm of obviously rigged elections, this one is really standing out.
Gvg
If Russia sends loads of untrained draftees to be slaughtered, and many managed to desert, Ukraine is going to have to feed them, in the winter, and then absorb them because those can’t go home. That’s going to break up families in Russia, and distort populations in both countries…Russia is killing itself demographically.
I think Ukraine can handle it but we should be prepared to help them again with supplies.
Putin is an idiot and Russians are terrible at things like logistics or even logic.
Barry
@Gvg: send the deserters to Poland.
Chief Oshkosh
@Adam L Silverman:
Good.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay:
Excellent Blackadder reference, thanks for the smile. I wonder who Lord B would be in tis scenario, and who Baldric.
I still have a gut feeling that says “siloviki factions at loggerheads” somehow partly explains the crazy. We do know that mobilization/UMT is the outcome that Putin dreaded and resisted as long as he could. Now it’s happening, but about as badly as could be imagined, as you say.
I bet anything there’s no plan to transport anyone to a mustering location. In fact, it’s not even clear that handing someone a draft card is anything more than a performative act by the government at this stage, a “we really mean it this time” gesture. Most draftees might not even by at risk of going anywhere.
The Russians have barracks, no doubt, and they might be able to supply enough uniforms on short notice, although the result could wind up looking clownish. The dark comedy begins when they start looking around for training resources, having sent many of their reserve/training units into the war without rotating out its corresponding unit for rest and rebuild. No corporals or sargeants, so they need a shit-ton of LTs to babysit and herd the newbs, make sure they know not to store ammo in puddles or near open fires, don’t kill each other more than the strictly necessary amount, etc. And they don’t have a lot of junior LTs to spare because they’ve been getting killed like bugs under a steamroller in the war.
So, yeah. I have a dollar that says most of those draft cards are meaningless. Just more messaging. I mean, if you hand out a draft card at a metro stop to a random young person, and he wipes his ass with it ten minutes later, how would you even know?
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for regularly providing the Chinese perspective in these threads. It is very valuable.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: More – Kuleba meets with Wang:
Gin & Tonic
So mobilization is going well:
Paul in KY
@Martin: This is The Ukraine’s war. We are providing great logistical support for their resistance/war, but I would be completely against any NATO direct involvement, unless Russia actually attacked a current NATO member.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Second that.
G&T, I meant to ask you something about the EuroMaidan thing which I’ve found puzzling. Based on some accounts of the affair that I’ve skimmed online, it seems to be a rare — possibly unique — case of a revolution succeeding despite the security forces failing to defect from the government’s side. Which seems a bit strange, and makes me suspect that I’ve been reading some rather rosy accounts. Generally, modern crowd-control weapons (or, if necessary, military weapons) and a will to power are all that is required to put down even a very popular revolution. And we know that EuroMaidan was by no means a universally supported cause. But Yanukovych and his gang seem to have simply given up and run away without even trying a real crackdown. It all seems bit mysterious to me, as if there was another actor that was involved behind the scenes that had had enough of Yanukovych, and couldn’t be ignored — maybe the Army?
Honestly I have no idea. But the surface story seems a bit off to me. We’ve all seen too many popular revolutions put down at the orders of assholes like Yanukovych, with blood being power-washed off the streets for weeks afterwards, to believe that it could not have happened in Ukraine. And yet it did not. What’s your take?
Rand Careaga
@Leto: I needed a cigarette after watching that.
Ksmiami
@Paul in KY: if nukes are used, all bets are off.
dnfree
@Paul in KY: It hasn’t been called The Ukraine for decades, honestly. I remember being corrected on that back in the 1980s.
If Russia uses any nuclear weapons, the fallout is likely to drift over NATO member nations. Is that an attack?
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: That’s a good question that I don’t have the time to write about now. I’ll try to put something together tonight.
Jinchi
@Paul in KY: Use of nuclear weapons is a real red line, because their destructive power is so great. If they became acceptable to warring parties, every nation would rush to build them. Billions could easily die worldwide, even far from a conflict zone.
You can’t just use them whenever an adversary outplays your generals.
NATO would absolutely get involved if only to prevent any other idiot from attempting the same thing in the future.
Paul in KY
@dnfree: Nuclear fallout on NATO countries could be considered an attack on them. Also, I didn’t notice that the person I was responding to was talking about a situation where Russia had nuked Ukraine.
Paul in KY
@Ksmiami: OK on that.
Paul in KY
@Jinchi: Did not understand that the stipulation in the comment I was responding to was that Russia had nuked Ukraine. If they did, then the severest penalties need to be in play.
way2blue
Adam, thank you for taking time to keep us informed. Two questions:
(1) I read this morning (Sep 23rd) that Germany is considering offering ‘sanctuary’ to Russian men who don’t want to be drafted. My gut feeling is ‘No’. That the Russian people as a whole need to face this crisis, not sneak away. How do you (and other commenters here) feel?
(2) My concern is that—rather than actually using ‘tactical nuclear devices’—Russian would smash open one of the nuclear reactor containment vessels. With similar result. With their near daily attacks on Ukrainian nuclear plants, I assume the uber message is that they can at any time actually hit one. Is this another sword daggling by a thread above all our heads, or something more deliberate?
Chetan Murthy
@way2blue: This morning, we’re seeing pictures (I won’t even paste a link, b/c too disturbing, and people who want to see can find them) of Mykhailo Dianov (the musician with the broken arm in iconic Mariupol pics) from after he was liberated. What the Russians did to his arm ….. it’s sickening (and enraging) to contemplate. Enraging.
It is with that in the back of my mind, that I respond to your comment. With the white-hot rage that wants to carpet-bomb Moscow and St. Petersburg. White-hot rage. Inhumane dogs, these Russians. Not fit for feeding to 30-50 feral hogs. Unfit for human company. Build a wall and leave them to each other.
White-hot hatred.
But we can’t make public policy based on individuals’ reactions. And in this instance, bleeding away possible soldiers from Putin’s army is good policy. What I would want though, is that these draft resisters get put to instant work in interviews and news presentations, as part of a worldwide push to discredit Putin’s regime. I would want them to be offered asylum *in Ukraine* as workers (in Western Ukraine, safely away from Putin’s bombs, to be sure) helping Ukraine rebuild.
I don’t know how President Zelenskiyy and his government would feel about this, and obviously that should govern. But the general idea is that these young men should be given the choice of “sit out the war comfortably”. They should, like any other conscientious objector, be given non-combat work to help people who are suffering.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: urk, I meant “should NOT be given the choice of sit out the war comfortably”.
Jinchi
@way2blue:
My guess is that Ukraine doesn’t want thousands more Russians in their country, even if most of them would just be there for target practice. They’d be perfectly happy if all the Russian soldiers in Ukraine decided to sneak away tomorrow.
I think Russia is more likely to “accidentally” hit one of the nuclear plants than to actually launch a tactical nuke. But the results aren’t the same. There are only so many nuclear power plants to target, and they aren’t centered on military assets or civilian power centers. A ‘tactical nuke’ can be sent to any destination and followed up by many more.