Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

American History and Black History Cannot Be Separated

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“Squeaker” McCarthy

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

You cannot shame the shameless.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 211: Hey Amnesty International, Got Anything to Say About Izium?

War for Ukraine Day 211: Hey Amnesty International, Got Anything to Say About Izium?

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Apparently, Amnesty International doesn’t have much to say about Ukraine these days…

They couldn’t shut their yaps when they had the chance to blame Russia’s genocidal actions on Ukraine. Now that those Russian genocidal actions are once again clearly on display, Amnesty, and their execrable leadership, have fuck all to say.

Before we get really going, just a quick check in from Iran:

This is a big thing. Other than just saying you’ll have to rely on my professional expertise as an artisan working these issues, I really have a feeling that something is very different in regard to the social unrest and protests in Iran this time. Whether what is striking me as different is enough to actually lead to real significant change is something I’m not sure of yet. I’ll keep tracking on this and will provide updates as appropriate.

Back to your regularly scheduled Ukraine update!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Ukrainians!

Today, the events in New York in the framework of our state’s participation in the session of the UN General Assembly are coming to an end.

It was a productive week for Ukraine. Many different activities – with my participation, with the participation of the First Lady of Ukraine, with the participation of the Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Ukraine has shown that not only the truth, but also strength, initiative and confidence in victory are on our side. The world is always sensitive to such things. Who is really strong, and who pretends to be strong. Who really feels his strength, and who tries his best to conceal weakness and insecurity.

At the General Assembly, Ukraine proposed a formula of peace, its way to the stabilization of international relations. And it was definitely heard by the world. The reaction to my speech at the General Assembly was really positive.

Different countries equally wanted to hear specifics. Specifics on how to restore peace, how to end this war. Ukraine presented its vision. Clear, logical, fair and realistic.

Five points. The first: punishment for the aggressor. The second: protection of life, that is, all the necessary assistance to our state in defense. The third point: restoration of security and territorial integrity. The fourth point: security guarantees. And the fifth: the determination to achieve all this together with us – the determination of the world majority.

And what did Russia present? Once again, lame excuses, complaints and constant lying propaganda, which the world has got tired of long ago, but Russian representatives still repeat it. A striking contrast with us.

I am grateful to all the heads of state, all the politicians, public figures, cultural and business leaders who expressed their support for us at the General Assembly and at all the events in America this week.

In particular, I participated in a special meeting on food security. This is one of the key topics in the UN this year – it was Russian aggression that made it so urgent. The world is looking for means to protect people from hunger and price crisis, and Ukraine has something to offer. We constantly increase food exports, we help the UN Food Program, we send grain as humanitarian aid to the countries that need it – Ethiopia, Somalia. And Ukraine has never ever provoked any crisis in the food market. The world appreciates all this.

Due to the decency of Ukraine and the constructive desire of our state to help others, we have a unique result: Russian propaganda is losing its influence even in the world where we still have to secure a strong information position, in particular in the countries of the Global South. These are Latin America, Africa, South Asia.

Also this week I participated in several important formats of communication with investors. The summit under the auspices of Forbes – a meeting of the world’s largest businessmen engaged in philanthropy. Video conference with representatives of BlackRock and Goldman Sachs – important global players. Clinton Global Initiative. Each such event adds attention to Ukraine, adds specific projects and benefits to our state, strengthens our resilience, and brings our victory closer.

The First Lady of Ukraine met in New York with Liz Truss, the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and it was a very substantive meeting. With First Lady of France Brigitte Macron. Together with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, she met with António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General. In total, she held almost 20 meetings.

At the invitation of Charles Michel, Olena took part in the Women in Conflict forum, which took place within the General Assembly. She presented a special charity fund – the Olena Zelenska Foundation, in order to accumulate even more support for Ukrainians, specifically for the humanitarian direction – primarily education, medicine and the restoration of what was destroyed by Russian strikes. We are creating all the necessary institutional framework so that anyone in the world can help us as efficiently, quickly and reliably as possible.

The Prime Minister of Ukraine held dozens of high-level meetings. Accents are clear. The situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The expansion of defense, financial and sanction support. Support in preparing our country for winter, support in reconstruction. During each meeting, there was an emphasis that Russian terror must receive a clear global response – military, economic and legal, including the recognition of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Our proposals for security guarantees for Ukraine, for Europe and the world – a project developed by the Yermak-Rasmussen group – were outlined in New York. Denys Shmyhal also met with the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other major financial and investment organizations of the world. I am grateful to all of them for their support!

It is important to note the negotiations with the Prime Minister of Japan, the country that will soon chair the G7 and the UN Security Council. We discussed our priorities. Negotiations took place with the Prime Minister of Iraq – this is a new partner for Ukraine, an important partner.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs held more than 30 meetings, and the vast majority of them were with representatives of countries that are not our traditional partners. We are strengthening our position in relations with Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Probably, this is the most meaningful and positive participation of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly in all years of our independence. The world not only talks about Ukraine, but also realizes that by helping Ukraine, it also helps solve urgent global problems and crises. We offer a way to make the world more stable and safer. The world heard it.

A very important event took place today in Izyum, Kharkiv region. Representatives of almost twenty diplomatic missions – the Baltic states and Eastern Europe, Germany, France, Spain, Slovenia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, the EU Ambassador – saw with their own eyes what the Russian occupiers left behind. Ruined houses, torture chambers, mass burial site… The world will know full information about every crime committed by Russia in the temporarily occupied territories.

The world will react absolutely justly to the sham referenda – they will be unequivocally condemned, and to the criminal mobilization that the occupiers are currently trying to carry out in Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, which they so far control. These are not just crimes against international law and the law of Ukraine. These are crimes against specific people, against the nation.

Now in Crimea, in places of dense residence of qırımlılar, there are attempts to find and mobilize as many men as possible. We already have evidence of this. This is a deliberate attempt by Russia to destroy the Crimean Tatar people, this is a deliberate attempt by the aggressor state to take the lives of as many residents of the territory the Russian troops invaded as possible.

I have a simple request to all our people in the temporarily occupied territory: do the main thing – save your lives and help us weaken and destroy the occupiers.

Hide from the Russian mobilization by any means. Avoid conscription letters. Try to get to the free territory of Ukraine.

But if you get into the Russian army, sabotage any activity of the enemy, hinder any Russian operations, provide us with any important information about the occupiers – their bases, headquarters, warehouses with ammunition. And at the first opportunity, switch to our positions. Do everything to save your life and help liberate Ukraine.

Since the beginning of active actions in the east of our country in September, about 9 thousand square kilometers of territory and about 400 settlements have already been liberated. This tangible result was achieved in particular thanks to the fact that our people in the temporarily occupied territory helped us. Please do everything to increase such help.

Give our special services all the information about those who organize and help conduct this farce with sham referenda. Provide all information about the Russian mobilization, about the Russian army in general. Help those in the occupied areas who need it: elderly people, single people, families with children. Ukraine will return to all its lands, and we must save as many of our people there as possible.

Pursuant to my instruction, Head of the Office Andriy Yermak held a meeting today regarding assistance to Ukrainians whom we have freed from captivity. The Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Head of the National Guard, the ministers of internal affairs, defense, healthcare, social policy, representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, our ombudsman were present. Our warriors must receive everything the necessary, real help, any assistance. The state knows how to be grateful to its heroes. I am waiting for a report at the beginning of the week with a specific plan on supporting each person.

Today, the Russian army used Iranian drones for attacking the Dnipropetrovsk region and Odesa. I commissioned the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to provide a tough response to this fact. The world will know about every fact of collaboration with evil, and it will have corresponding consequences.

It has already been decided to deprive the Ambassador of Iran to Ukraine of accreditation, as well as to significantly reduce the number of diplomatic personnel of the Iranian Embassy.

Six of these Iranian drones were shot down by our anti-aircraft troops of the “East” and “South” air commands. Another one was shot down by the anti-aircraft defense of the Naval Forces. In addition, the “Center” air command shot down a Russian strike aircraft and a helicopter today in the south of our country. And I was just informed about another Iranian combat drone shot down by the anti-aircraft troops of the “South” command.

I am grateful to our warriors for accuracy!

I am grateful to everyone who fights and works for the victory of Ukraine!

I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps us protect life and freedom!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent updates regarding the situations in Kherson and Izium:

Given the visually confirmed reports of Iranian drones being used by the Russians against Ukrainian targets, the Ukrainians decided it was time to make a point. They have declared the Iranian ambassador to Kyiv persona non grata!

Kyiv said on September 23 that it has stripped the Iranian ambassador of his accreditation and decided to reduce Iran’s diplomatic presence in Ukraine to protest drone deliveries to Russia.

“Supplying Russia with weapons to wage war against Ukraine is an unfriendly act that deals a serious blow to relations between Ukraine and Iran,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“In response to such an unfriendly act the Ukrainian side has decided to deprive the ambassador of Iran of his accreditation and also to significantly reduce the number of diplomatic staff” at the Iranian Embassy in Kyiv, it added.

Earlier on September 23, Kyiv said that one civilian was killed during a Russian attack with drones on the southern port city of Odesa and that one Iranian-designed unmanned vehicle was shot down by Ukrainian forces.

There was no immediate reaction from Tehran.

How’s the mobilization going? Or, perhaps, the flight from mobilization?

I don’t know about you, but I’m convinced!!!

Ooopsie!

Double OOOPSIE!!!!!

And we now have some further clarification of the real number of personnel Russia is intending to draft:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

203Comments

  1. 1.

    J R in WV

    If Amnesty can’t say anything relative to these genocidal crimes, it makes me glad to not be a contributor to Amnesty. What are they good for? Absolutely Nothing!

    ETA: Frist !!!?!!! wow…   also, thanks Adam for everything!

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    Thanks, Adam, for calling attention to the bootlicking Amnesty International. Maybe tomorrow you can do the same for their fellow bootlickers at the ICRC.

    I will point out that it is easy to find images of both released russian POW’s and released Ukrainian POW’s. I will not link to them, but they are easy to find if one wishes, and then one can draw one’s own conclusions.

  7. 7.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ksmiami: The difference is that until now, we (The West) have signaled reliably to RU, that we will not attack them unless we are attacked.  In nuclear brinkmanship (per Cheryl Rofer’s many posts about this over at LG&M) the most important thing is predictability.  B/c if you do something that your adversary cannot predict, then they’ll react to that in a manner that wasn’t well-thought-out beforehand.  And that can lead to the end of civilization.

    Why can we give weapons to UA?  B/c regardless of what RU says, we’ve both given lots of weapons (and really good ones) to our clients over the decades.  RU gave Korea/Vietnam lots of toys, and even operators for some of them.  So yeah, we can give UA more weapons, and more sophisticated weapons.  But actual NATO forces in combat?  That’d be a step too far.

    We don’t have to like this fact, to realize that the death of most of humanity isn’t an acceptable risk to run.

  9. 9.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: UA are preternaturally good at info ops.  I have to believe they’re working on a plan to convince RU conscripts to surrender en masse.  ‘T’would be a massive propaganda coup, too.  Get all the RU mothers/wives/grandmas on their side.

  10. 10.

    Kent

    This whole war has really revealed a lot of pathology across the doctrinaire right and left around the world.  It is like the tide has gone out and for the first time we get to see who is swimming naked.

    Trump essentially did the same thing when it comes to domestic US politics

    Amnesty International seems to be stuck in the same mindset as the US press corps.  The reflectively want to “both sides” the Ukraine war just like the US press corps insists on “both sides” when it comes to Trump and domestic politics.

    Sometimes there isn’t “both sides”.  Sometimes there is simply right and wrong.  Whether we are talking about Ukraine or domestic insurrection and anti-democratic elections denialism.

  13. 13.

    prostratedragon

    @Chetan Murthy:  Aha. I hadn’t really been struck by it before, but now you mention it they have said some “odd” things or had inexplicable silences in other conflicts.

    ETA there has long been a tendency for some, well, rich fascists, to buy things for the sole purpose of ruining them. Maybe someone wanted to ruin the idea of trustworthy international NGOs or intermediaries.

  14. 14.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Omnes Omnibus: I’m reminded of the Nazi attitude during WWII on the Geneval Conventions.  In the West, compliance, because their adversaries were “near-Aryans” for the most part.  However, on the Eastern Front, it was the law of the jungle.

  15. 15.

    Omnes Omnibus

    I’ll also say that out of residual respect of AI, I hope that they realized that they got way over their skis in an area that was outside of their expertise* with their Ukraine report and are shutting the fuck up now as a result.  I do not put a lot of faith in this particular hope.

    *Their remit really is prisoners of conscience and human rights violations, not war crimes.  Admittedly, there is not a bright line between the topics, but they really overstepped.

  16. 16.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: I have to find the tweet about IRGC not ever visiting the Azovstal detainees. I think I know who retweeted it and I’ll deal with them tomorrow night.

  17. 17.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Yeah, the latest wave of protests in Iran feels different. The “ Green Revolution” failed because it was primarily an urban middle class phenomenon, & in any case the movement had not directly challenged the theocratic regime. If the regime has lost the youth in countryside, then it is indeed in dire strait.

    Selling weapons to support the Russian invasion is strategic malpractice of the highest order. It will cost Iran a lot of sympathy around the world (& there had been plenty after Trump pulled out of the JPCOA), & any reputation it had for savvy or even sanity in foreign policy.

    I feel we are at another anti-establishment moment in the world, as we did following the GFC, but much stronger & pervasive this time.

  20. 20.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    @Gin & Tonic: I unintentionally saw some of those photo comparisons. It was…jarring. And awful.

    But if you get into the Russian army, sabotage any activity of the enemy, hinder any Russian operations, provide us with any important information about the occupiers – their bases, headquarters, warehouses with ammunition. And at the first opportunity, switch to our positions. Do everything to save your life and help liberate Ukraine.

    As much as I hope this doesn’t happen to a single Ukrainian, I do appreciate this idea of “take advantage of it and fuck ’em up from the inside” — especially since Ukrainians by and large seem to be smarter, more competent, more resilient, and way braver than the enemy.

    And yeah, Amnesty can go fuck themselves collectively.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  21. 21.

    Another Scott

    I had tried for weeks to try to find a way to order stamps from UkrPoshta, then kinda gave up. I eventually found a seller on Amazon, who is listed as being in WY (!) and took a chance. They arrived today, a little over 3 weeks after ordering, direct from Kyiv.

    It was very well packed and the contents are perfect.

    [ happy dance ]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  25. 25.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Just to jump in here, should we be concerned about the likely right-wing victory in Italy this weekend in light of Silvio Berlusconi’s recent remarks on Ukraine? As well as the recent gains the Swedish Democrats have made as well? Winter in Europe is also coming and as well as an energy crisis.

  26. 26.

    guest

    dunno, pinned tweet at the top of amnesty’s feed…

    Since Russia began its war against Ukraine we have been exposing violations of human rights & intl humanitarian law. From the devastation of Izium to the siege of Mariupol, shelling in Kyiv to displaced people in Lviv, Russia’s war is an act of aggression.

  28. 28.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Chetan Murthy: 

    I have to believe they’re working on a plan to convince RU conscripts to surrender en masse.

    Take the POWs on a tour of the war crime fields, like taking German civilians on tour after WW2.

  29. 29.

    FelonyGovt

    Looks like I’m early enough to the thread tonight to thank you very sincerely, Adam, for all your work putting these together every day and for sharing your expertise with us.

  30. 30.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Mallard Filmore: For sure, once they’ve surrendered.  The sooner UA can get these soldiers to surrender, the better, b/c if they get to the point of committing the inevitable war crimes, that’ll make it *harder* to  convince them to surrender.

  34. 34.

    Adam L Silverman

    @guest: Let me know when they retract their report, acknowledge they were wrong, apologize for promoting Russian misinformation as fact, and their president resigns after acknowledging the above.

  36. 36.

    Gin & Tonic

    So this morning, in the dying embers of last night’s Ukraine thread, Carlo asked an interesting question: why did the Maidan revolution of 2013-14 (referred to in Ukraine as “The Revolution of Dignity”) succeed, when such movements typically fail – or more pointedly, why did Yanukovych & Co flee rather than brutally cracking down as most autocrats do. I said that I was busy then but would try to post something tonight. Carlo usually pops in later, but I may try to rack out early, so not sure I’ll be here to discuss, but some thoughts follow. Caveat, as before, I’m just some pseudonymous rando on the internet, with no professional qualifications.

    Purely by chance, but very fortuitously, there was a long Twitter thread today by some foreign policy PhD I hadn’t heard of before, giving the history of events in Ukraine from mid-November of 2013 to Yanukovych’s abdication. It is accurate and comprehensive (albeit long); you can read it starting here.

    But those are facts, which I think may be familiar to many here. The key question was why did Yanukovych run away? I think there are a couple of factors. Keep in mind that while Yanukovych enjoyed Putin’s support, and was actually fairly legitimately elected in 2010, he was basically just a thug, a mafia enforcer type who’d be far more at home in some dim lounge in Donetsk than in the seat of government in Kyiv. Yes, he gave orders to crack down a few times as the revolution progressed, but more often than not (as Abrams points out) he shot himself in the dick doing so. A great strategic thinker he was not. And yes, he had the titushki on his side as well as the Berkut police force, but you need a lot of personnel if you’re going to rule a nation of 40+ million with an iron fist – personnel who you are certain will shoot their countrymen if given the order. In, say, 2019 Iran, you had those numbers, motivated by religious zealotry. In 2020-21 Belarus, you had those numbers because Lukashenko had controlled the police forces for 30 years, and they knew nothing else.

    But in 2014 Ukraine, Yanukovych hadn’t been President for very long. Religious schisms (violent ones) just weren’t a thing. The army, at that time, was not anywhere close to what it is now, but was still politically non-aligned. And there was a history of successful popular uprising – recall that the “Orange Revolution” of 2004-05 overturned the results of a fraudulent election (won by Yanukovych) and led to a new runoff which elected Viktor Yushchenko. So the soil was just not that fertile, in my opinion, for the massive violent crackdown which would have been needed to stop the popular movement.

    I think the killing of protesters in Kyiv on February 18 was a “holy shit” moment for everybody. And yet despite that, a negotiated solution was reached that would have allowed Yanukovych to stay on while the government was reconstituted and new elections were called. That night, he ran away. I’m no psychoanalyst, especially remotely, so I won’t speculate as to why, but at that point maybe he saw there was no future for him in Ukraine. Violence after the negotiated compromise would have been out of the question; seeing a million people in the streets calling for your ouster isn’t good for the ego. In the end, it may have been a combination of his not having the stomach for the degree of violence that would have been needed, and a sober analysis that without the support of the armed forces his people didn’t have the numbers for the force that would have been necessary.

    Again, all speculation, take with large grains of salt.

  37. 37.

    Doc Sardonic

    @Kent: The fun thing with the bothsiderism is watching the folks that are discovering that all straddling a fence gets you is sore balls. The gymnastics as they try to figure out what to do about are fun to watch. Some of them just like having sore balls

  41. 41.

    guest

    @Adam L Silverman: I’ll get right on that, but as a casual observer of amnesty, when the first public statement on their twitter feed is in support of ukrain, you sound a bit shrill. ish.

    I’m sure they suck. Thanks for the heads up.

  44. 44.

    Chetan Murthy

    Does anybody here have any opinions on Razom for Ukraine?  It’s a charity in Ukraine, that has a US-registered 501(c)3 entity and all.  And an ActBlue Charities registration.  I’ve read good things about it, and it apparently has completely kosher legal reports and such.  But I  figured I’d ask about it, before sending them any money.

  47. 47.

    trollhattan

    If only Russians did embarrassment.

    My vote is on Rise of the Babushkas. Maybe grannies can stop this monstrosity.

  50. 50.

    Bill Arnold

    FWIW, amnesty.org on Izyum. (G&T can address their “Izium” spelling. English wikipedia title, also FWIW):
    Ukraine: Humanitarian Catastrophe in Izium. The Plight of Civilians under Bombardment and Siege-like Conditions (March 22, 2022)
    Ukraine: Mass graves in Izium is a macabre reminder of the cost of Russian aggression (September 16, 2022)

    The second piece is weak, but it is at least something.
    And their Ukraine feed:
    https://www.amnesty.org/en/search/Ukraine/?year=2022&language=en

    Mixed. Some OK, like today: “Russia/Ukraine: So-called referenda in the occupied territories are in blatant breach of international law”. They’re still not getting any more of my  money until they do a purge.

  51. 51.

    Chetan Murthy

    @trollhattan: And as others have noted, her “improper wearing” was no different from lots of other women who weren’t harassed and then murdered.  This reminds me of the way that in America, random violence is visited upon Black people, and on women when nobody’s looking.

  54. 54.

    piratedan

    unsure how accurate this is or how much of it based on the characters that the Right has chosen to embrace… but I get the feeling that dark money/deep money has always been in the bag for Conservative parties, regardless of where they exist on the map, if they can tip them into Fascism, so be it, they apparently prefer that model.  Perhaps its looney tunes to suggest that they are all loosely working together, but the coordinated rise in places like the US, India, Hungary, Brazil and how much of it is tied up in theocratic methods of control, just causes me to wonder

  55. 55.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Bill Arnold: [Not trying to beat you up here, just …. well, AI …. feh]

    I would say that Fox News had the equivalent: they let Shep Smith (and to a lesser extent, the son of the 60 Minutes guy) deliver the news “straight”.  It was a “beard” to make palatable the rabid propaganda everybody else was delivering.

    I don’t accept that AI is “mixed” because they chide both sides in this war: we wouldn’t accept it from our mainstream media, and thus shouldn’t accept from NGOs reporting on the RU-UA war.

    *Especially* because over and over, UA has demonstrated that they care for the civilians in the area of fighting, and RU has demonstrated that they do to — they care a lot about murdering them, when they’re not raping them and torturing them.

  57. 57.

    the pale scot @ gmail

    @trollhattan:

    Unfortunately, Babushkas are  Putin’s most solid supporters. Don’t want those pension checks to stop.

    And they can a free Lada with every bodybag

  58. 58.

    Chetan Murthy

    @zhena gogolia: *grin*  And unlike early-on in the war, I don’t need to know how, or even *that* they’re doing it.  UA (and the Biden admin) has demonstrated that we can trust them to know what they’re doing, and to get it done.  We just need to support them.

  59. 59.

    Chetan Murthy

    @the pale scot @ gmail: It’s sickening to think about: the most basic human instinct — to protect one’s progeny — and it seems like some Russians don’t have it.  I don’t understand it.  I don’t understand it.

  61. 61.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @trollhattan:

    As YY_Sima Qian above alludes to, even rural Iranian youths have seemed to turn on the regime because of Amini’s senseless death at the hands of the Morality Police. Going on the assumption that rural Iranians are more conservative, I have to speculate that the fact that she was wearing headgear and even that didn’t save her has played a role. She could’ve been any of their female loved ones

  63. 63.

    Ksmiami

    @Chetan Murthy: not in combat just in support positions. I’m not ok with A million poorly trained Russians committing war crimes on Ukrainian civilians. And that will be next.

  65. 65.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Gin & Tonic:

    But not Vera: “I’d be much happier if my son got wounded fighting in Ukraine than die of alcoholism here,” she tells me.

    Yeah? And what if he comes back with PTSD and becomes an alcoholic anyway? Jesus Christ, I can’t even imagine how broken a person would need to be to believe that. I guess decades of propaganda will warp you

  66. 66.

    Jay

    Rusich, Russia's neo-Nazi Wagner unit, reacts to UA/RU prisoner exchanges by advising RU forces how to commit war crimes, including how to extort $$ from families after summarily executing prisoners (awkward English auto-translate for convenience). Disgusting… pic.twitter.com/aeB5hFlnle— Michael Colborne (@ColborneMichael) September 22, 2022

  67. 67.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ksmiami: We all feel outrage.  We all feel fear for Ukrainians.  But we don’t have the right to condemn literally hundreds of millions of innocent people to death (and that’s probably a low-end estimate) in a nuclear exchange.  We just don’t.

    NATO must not enter combat with RU, unless RU uses nukes.  We must not.  And heck, even if RU uses nukes, I think NATO would not reply in kind — again, because the danger of escalation is too great.

    Hundreds of millions, maybe billions, of dead.  Every American in any reasonably-sized city.  All dead.

  72. 72.

    Chetan Murthy

    @trollhattan: I was impressed with her father (I think it was) who stated publicly that how she was treated had nothing to do with her being Kurdish.  I think that that might have helped fan the flames of this rebellion.

  73. 73.

    Tony G

    @Gin & Tonic: For a certain cohort of “the left”, the “Maidan revolution” is referred to as a “coup”.  That’s the “coup” where more than 1200 protestors forced the security forces to use their precious bullets by shooting them.  Who will pay for those bullets?

  74. 74.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    @guest: If you think he’s being “shrill” you need to adjust your standards. Did you read that despicable AI report that everyone’s referring to? Have they fully retracted that? Have they apologized for it? I don’t give a shit if they pin a tweet that seems to express something good, it doesn’t make up for their recent statements and actions.

  75. 75.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    So how long before the Russians pull a Fredrick the Great and start kidnapping for Foreign Nationals to conscript them?

  76. 76.

    Mike in NC

    I read that the hapless cannon fodder being mobilized do not even get a physical exam. Guess they’re just being written off.

  77. 77.

    Ksmiami

    @Villago Delenda Est: Germans viewed the Eastern Slavs and inhabitants as  untermenschen to be killed or enslaved for Nazi lebensraum… much as the Russians view Ukrainians now. Which is why Putin and that sick fucking country needs to be defeated utterly.

  80. 80.

    Another Scott

    @Villago Delenda Est:  IIRC, someone in AI Corporate rushed some report that AI Ukraine wanted to spend more time on.  And it blew up in their faces.

    Amnesty.org (from August 7):

    […]

    Amnesty International’s priority in this and in any conflict is ensuring that civilians are protected; indeed, this was our sole objective when releasing this latest piece of research. While we fully stand by our findings, we regret the pain caused and wish to clarify a few crucial points.

    In our press release, we documented how in all 19 of the towns and villages we visited, we found instances where Ukrainian forces had located themselves right next to where civilians were living, thereby potentially putting them at risk from incoming Russian fire. We made this assessment based on the rules of international humanitarian law (IHL), which require all parties to a conflict to avoid locating, to the maximum extent feasible, military objectives within or near densely populated areas. The laws of war exist in part to protect civilians, and it is for this reason that Amnesty International urges governments to comply with them.

    This does not mean that Amnesty International holds Ukrainian forces responsible for violations committed by Russian forces, nor that the Ukrainian military is not taking adequate precautions elsewhere in the country.

    We must be very clear: Nothing we documented Ukrainian forces doing in any way justifies Russian violations. Russia alone is responsible for the violations it has committed against Ukrainian civilians. Amnesty’s work over the last six months and our multiple briefings and reports on Russia’s violations and war crimes reflect their scale and the gravity of their impact on civilians.

    […]

    “If you’re explaining, you’re losing.”

    They’re losing.

    The problem isn’t that people got upset. The problem is their report:

    The first 4 paragraphs:

    Ukrainian forces have put civilians in harm’s way by establishing bases and operating weapons systems in populated residential areas, including in schools and hospitals, as they repelled the Russian invasion that began in February, Amnesty International said today.

    Such tactics violate international humanitarian law and endanger civilians, as they turn civilian objects into military targets. The ensuing Russian strikes in populated areas have killed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure.

    “We have documented a pattern of Ukrainian forces putting civilians at risk and violating the laws of war when they operate in populated areas,” said Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General.

    “Being in a defensive position does not exempt the Ukrainian military from respecting international humanitarian law.”

    […]

    They get around to mentioning that “not every” russian attack is on Ukrainian military sites. And that they’re not defending russia’s crimes.

    But, come on, with an opening like that, what did they expect? And why did they feel the need to write it that way?

    Something’s broken with AI.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  81. 81.

    glc

    @Tony G: Personally, I’ll continue to support Amnesty at my usual level.   I haven’t seen evidence of a systemic problem in the organization, to date.

    Technically, that would be Amnesty USA in my case. This is what their site shows about Ukraine lately:

    (AmnestyUSA-Ukraine)

    Not that I look to them myself for information on that topic, but if you’re interested in their views, there they are. I’m more interested in what they have to say about various urgent problems in the U.S.

  82. 82.

    Chetan Murthy

    @glc: There’s also the matter of AI in the UK, and the incident involving CagePrisoners and Gita Sahgal.

    ETA: It was a long time ago, but that convince me that AI was not to be trusted.

  83. 83.

    Ksmiami

    @Chetan Murthy: why do you think a nuclear exchange is so likely? I mean if it happens as a way for Russia to avoid an embarrassing defeat in Ukraine then why would Nato field support be the catalyst? If Putin is already contemplating using nukes in Ukraine, (he is) then the west needs a plan to contain him anyway. (Hope we do)

  84. 84.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ksmiami: I’m paraphrasing from what Cheryl Rofer posted over at LG&M a while back, and at length.  She pointed out that the people who study this question, argue that the thing that can kick a nuclear exchange into high gear, is when one side thinks the other side isn’t serious about its committments (“if you do X, we’ll do Y”) or thinks the other side has already unwarrantedly escalated (hence forcing a tit-for-tat response).  And so the big danger in NATO entering the RU-UA war, is that for the longest time, and also during  the war, NATO has said “UA is not under our umbrella”.  To change that now, is to become unreliable in the “negotiation” or “conversation” between NATO and RU about nukes.

    I’m not an expert in this — just an Internet rando.  But Cheryl had some pretty well-respected sources for the well-accepted nature of this logic.  Basically, when nuclear tensions are high, the one thing you MUST NOT DO is to behave in an unpredictable manner.  And that is what NATO entering the war on UA’s side would be, because NATO has always said they would not do this.

  86. 86.

    guest

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: ​
    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: ​
    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: ​

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: ​
     
    thanks for policing my standards alison. you probably don’t want any of my opinions about the community here, based on, you know, my shitty standards, but if one were inclined, they might find opinions expressed by front pagers and regular commenters that do not meet my aforementioned shitty standards. I’ll spare you why exactly I think I might be right, against all internet traditions.

  89. 89.

    Kent

    @Chetan Murthy:The fact is that any first use of nuclear weapons by a nuclear state against a non-nuclear state will instantly obliterate the 1970 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty which virtually every country in the world has signed other than Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Sudan.

    In very simple terms, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is a promise between nuclear and non-nuclear nations in that the non-nuclear nations agree not to seek and build nuclear weapons and the nuclear nations agree not to use them against non-nuclear states. In other words, if you promise not to build your own nuclear weapons, the nuclear states agree not to use their weapons against you.

    Both the US and USSR were primary signatories as was China.

    No nuclear state wants to see nuclear proliferation. It makes the world much less stable. This especially applies to Russia which has longer and more hostile borders than any other country in the world. Russia has no interest in seeing nations it borders like Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and even Ukraine gain nuclear weapons. And the surest way to guarantee all of those states build and arm themselves with nuclear weapons is to use them against a non-nuclear state.

    That in a nutshell is why Russia is almost certainly bluffing. It would be exceedingly stupid and counterproductive for them to use nukes in Ukraine because it would lead to a proliferation of nuclear weapons across all of Russia’s borders. They aren’t that irrational.

    Frankly, no nation on earth has more to lose from nuclear proliferation than Russia because Russia has a longer border and more potentially hostile neighbors than any other country on earth.  What the Russians want is the ability to use nuclear blackmail without actually using nukes.  That is a very treacherous path to tread.  And they certainly haven’t shown that level of sophistication so far in this war.  Not even close.

  90. 90.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @HumboldtBlue:

    Wow. Might be too early to say, but if that’s true, this does seem different to the protests that have happened before

    I wish I knew what they were chanting in the first video

  91. 91.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Kent:

    Frankly, no nation on earth has more to lose from nuclear proliferation than Russia

    Amen.  And this is what we’re all counting on.  And what NATO’s counting on.  So us messing with that, and scaring RU into using a nuke would be a spectacular own-goal.

    Now, I *do* think that providing weapons short of nukes to UA is fine, and we should be providing more.  We need to do more to help UA end this fucking war.  End it.

  94. 94.

    guest

    @Chetan Murthy: no, I read it. this is just my opinion.

    all for substantive discussion of iran situation, not sold on amnesty vitriol. not a member of the club here, not trying to join, but likely have read more cumulative BJ than 90% of y’all. was here at the very beginning.

    see ya.

  95. 95.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They could leave their cities undefended, and RU could even so pound them into dust, or take them over and rape and loot and murder with reckless abandon, and then, y’know, UA’s military wouldn’t be at fault, right?

    AI is full of it.  Just full of it.  It’s not only that “cities are where the fighting occurs”, but also that RU deliberately targeted cities and civilians in cities, and if UA was going to defend its people, they would necessarily have to fight in and from cities.

    AI is so full of it.

  96. 96.

    Dan B

    @Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the background on Yanukovich.  I vaguely recall a documentary that showed the rebels organized farmers and people from rural communities.  There were lots of tractors and proportionally fewer wild eyed students.  It was felt the military would not kill farmers as these were their relatives and parents.  And all the points you raise made it likely for Maidan to succeed.

  97. 97.

    Another Scott

    Everything I’ve seen on this mobilization so far points to Yakutia, Saha, Buryatia, Dagestan, Chechnya being mobilized in disproportionately large numbers. If this bears out, no question this is a systematic effort to deploy Russia’s ethnic minorities as cannon fodder.

    — Bakhti Nishanov (@b_nishanov) September 22, 2022

    Hmm….

    (via Angry_Staffer)

    I’m reminded of this thread from Galeev from March 15:

    Today I’ll suggest some specific measures to end this war. To start with, the very idea of deescalation as the ultimate goal is absolutely insane. It would mean repeating Napoleon’s mistake. Napoleon worked hard on deescalation – that’s why he lost a war he could’ve totally won🧵 pic.twitter.com/Y3RBFfXk7Z

    — Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 15, 2022

    Yeah, VVP seems to be rerunning a playbook left by the tsars.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  99. 99.

    Adam L Silverman

    @guest: I’m not expecting you to do anything. You didn’t write their report. Their pinned tweet was an attempt at damage control. It was the least they could do and they did it.

  100. 100.

    Bill Arnold

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Vera: “I’d be much happier if my son got wounded fighting in Ukraine than die of alcoholism here,”

    Sounds like Vera wants her son to turn into a Lada, but isn’t willing to say so.

  101. 101.

    HumboldtBlue

    @guest:

    but likely have read more cumulative BJ than 90% of y’all. was here at the very beginning.

    That’s not the take you think it is.

  102. 102.

    Ksmiami

    @Kent: this. All of it. By even bringing up the spectre of nuclear weapons use in Ukraine, Russia is trading on a very dangerous line and may get the confrontation with NATO that they could not win. That’s why it’s foolish to start wars of aggression in the first place- they rarely go as planned for the instigator.

  103. 103.

    glc

    @Chetan Murthy:  I had to go to Wikipedia for that  (Gita Sahgal page). From what’s written there I don’t see how it reflects badly on Amnesty but I imagine a fairly broad range of people wound up being upset by it either along the way or at the end.

    A lot of human rights cases are very divisive, obviously. I will studiously avoid mentioning any instances.

    I also have my own black list of respectable charities that have annoyed me enough in one way or another to seek a replacement, so in principle I get it.

    i’ve also worked for a large organization that was, to say the least, imperfect, but, I think, worthwhile.

  107. 107.

    Chetan Murthy

    @glc: I guess we can read the same text and come to different conclusions.  My own is that AI UK took an unacceptable position, linking themselves with Taliban supporters and supporters of armed jihad.  And Sahgal had the right of it.  That AI said “gee, you should have brought this up internally” …. well, given what we saw in the AI report on the RU-UA war, and given the way all organizations treat women, I believe Sahgal.

  109. 109.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @glc: FWIW I tend to agree with you.  The Ukraine report is unmitigated crap, and it will be interesting to see if it was an aberration by a good organization or if it is part of a disturbing trend.

  112. 112.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: That does make sense. Under the circumstances, you are saying, Yanukovych had not had time to consolidate the kind of power and authority over the security forces that would have allowed him to crack down hard enough to secure his regime, Another year or two later, perhaps, the story might have been different.

    Very good, thank you. That clears up a puzzle that I’d been wondering about for a while.

  115. 115.

    Bill Arnold

    @Ksmiami:

    By even bringing up the spectre of nuclear weapons use in Ukraine, Russia is trading on a very dangerous line

    They are mostly rattling their nuclear sabre in an attempt to cause policy changes in the West to their benefit. In general, any policy changes would be in their favor.
    It is still unforgivable behavior, because it increases risks of an event that could kill billions of humans (starvation, mostly). Behavior that eliminates their right to continued existence, really.
    Re the NPT:
    The five NWS parties have made undertakings not to use their nuclear weapons against a non-NWS party except in response to a nuclear attack, or a conventional attack in alliance with a Nuclear Weapons State. However, these undertakings have not been incorporated formally into the treaty, and the exact details have varied over time.
    Wikipedia; I am assuming it is accurate. I have not dug to find Russiia’s current policy re nuclear attacks on non-nuclear states (will poke a bit), but they are currently violating their current general war crimes policies, so their policies are only marginally relevant.

  116. 116.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Amnesty International is absolutely fucked up. Apparently, they’ve had some controversies in the past:

    In 1990, when the United States government was deciding whether or not to invade Iraq, a Kuwaiti woman, known to Congress by her first name only, Nayirah, told the congress that when Iraq invaded Kuwait, she stayed behind after some of her family left the country. She said she was volunteering in a local hospital when Iraqi soldiers stole the incubators with children in them and left them to freeze to death. Amnesty International, which had human rights investigators in Kuwait, confirmed the story and helped spread it. The organization also inflated the number of children who were killed by the robbery to over 300, more than the number of incubators available in the city hospitals of the country. It was often cited by people, including the members of Congress who voted to approve the Gulf War, as one of the reasons to fight. After the war, it was found that the woman was lying, the story was made up, and her last name was not given because her father was a delegate for Kuwait’s government at the same congressional hearing.

  118. 118.

    Anoniminous

    One interesting thing is the Russian Army has been pushed back to Russian supporting areas of Ukraine. So when the 300,000 to 1,200,000 (numbers vary) undisciplined, badly supplied, armed rabble arrives they’ll be robbing, looting, and raping in the Russia supporting areas of Ukraine.

    Which I find vastly amusing.

  121. 121.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    a lot of the people in the DPR and LPR, Crimea, arn’t Russian supporters. A lot of them are people who could not or would not leave their homes, families and communities.

  123. 123.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anoniminous: In order for Russia to generate the logistical wherewithal to get even a fraction of those people within hearing distance of the guns, they are going to have to find  the lamp with the genie in it and give it a good rub.

  124. 124.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Not exactly “amusing” exactly, but darkly ironic for sure.

    A few weeks ago Russian separatists were trying to escape into Russia with their newly issued Russian passports, only to be turned away. Kind of makes you wonder if the Russian separatists will sour on Russia

  126. 126.

    guest

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: no no alison, fuck you. I politely noted that amnesty had a pinned tweet supporting ukraine. as adam said above, he believes it was ass-covering. a sensible take. also ultimately up to history to weigh the overall good/bad of amnesty, or mother therasa, cole, adam..you and me.

    if anyone here is an exhausting self righteous twit dear, it’s you.

  127. 127.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Chetan Murthy:

    As Jay up above notes, not all of the people that live in DPR and LNR are Russia supporters. There are many innocents, just as there are many innocents in UKR proper and the other occupied areas that have died

  128. 128.

    TurnItOffAndOnAgain

    @Bill Arnold:

    They are mostly rattling their nuclear sabre in an attempt to cause policy changes in the West to their benefit. In general, any policy changes would be in their favor.

    ….In other words, you could say what they’re doing is highly manipulative behavior, aimed at folks like Ksmiami who’ll take the bate.

  131. 131.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There’s at least one relevant difference between the long-occupied areas of DPR/LNR, and recently-occupied areas elsewhere in UA: those in the former have had *eight years* to figure out they need to decamp.  I’m sure there are some people who didn’t support RU’s invasion of the Donbass.  But I bet they’re pretty rare at this point.   And sure, there are a lot who changed their minds once they got to experience the tender ministrations of what has been described as a reign of crooks and mobsters.  They’ve had a long time to GTFO.

    I don’t expressly wish them harm.  But it *is* ironic that they’re getting what many of them wanted.

  132. 132.

    guest

    @HumboldtBlue: ​
     I just have to ask. I wasn’t giving my “take”, just noting I’ve read nearly everything john, blog owner, has ever written. just saying I didn’t parachute in from 4chan. really hard to see how you could imply that my saying I’m familiar with the blog is somehow beclowning myself.
    it’s this crazy tribalism that has kept me out of here for what, 20 years? man, wtf.

  136. 136.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Major Major Major Major: 

    We may have to agree to disagree on that one.

    I’m with you on that one. It’s like a prison rape joke. That aspect aside, a large percentage of the voting population is actively trying to hide from being dragged off to vote, so the percent size of the Russian supporting people is not that great.

  137. 137.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Something I thought of last night,

    Russia has a lot of “Combat” ready troops inside Russia; and “Peacekeeping ” troops in their near abroad.

    With proper planning, Russia could strip those Brigaides of say, 3 Companies, transfer those to Ukraine, split up the remaining Companies, and back fill the holes with some of the new recruits.

    But that would take prior planning and logistics.

  139. 139.

    HumboldtBlue

    @guest: ​ 

    It was mentioned above, you may have failed to read the room.

    It’s not about how long you’ve been reading the blog, that’s the “I have a black friend” line.

    As has been pointed out, Amnesty International stepped on their collective dicks in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukrainian territory and the subsequent atrocities that have followed. I’m not really sure what your bone of contention is, when simple facts are presented simply. AI did what they did, and folks here called it out.

  140. 140.

    kalakal

    @Gin & Tonic:

    n the end, it may have been a combination of his not having the stomach for the degree of violence that would have been needed, and a sober analysis that without the support of the armed forces his people didn’t have the numbers for the force that would have been necessary.

    I think you got it right. An important point is that he’s, as you said, basically a thug, he’s not a religious or idealogical fanatic, prepared to wade through seas of blood and even go out in a blaze of glory for some cause or other. He want’s the money and the lifestyle but if the going gets too tough wants an out. I think a sober calculation of the odds was what drove his decision. An analogy may be Ceausescu, you can actually see on video the moment he realised it wasn’t going to work.

    https://youtu.be/TcRWiz1PhKU

  145. 145.

    Anoniminous

    @Carlo Graziani: ​You can do it if you move the troops in and then devote all of your logistics to ammo and fuel and let the troops supply themselves from the countryside. It devastates the countryside and a goodly whack of the civilians end-up starving, dying of exposure, dying of disease, etc. And that is pretty much what was done in the exact same area in the 1930s and ’40s; Snyder lays it all out in his book “Bloodlands.”
    I have given-up expecting any rationality or humanity from Putin.​

  146. 146.

    Jay

    @Chetan Murthy:

    As the DPR and LPR consolidated control, it became harder and harder to GTFO. You had to leave everything behind, other than one suitcase per person, (which was searched), have a cover story of “picking up a pension check, visiting grandma, going to the hospital), and leaving any extended family and property behind to the tender mercies of the Orc’s.

    Kidnappers tend to hang onto hostages and human shields.

    One thing that always struck me about “street” video’s from the DPR and LPR was how ancient much of the population was.

  147. 147.

    Jinchi

    @Bill Arnold: ​
     They are mostly rattling their nuclear sabre in an attempt to cause policy changes in the West to their benefit.

    I think that’s a huge misread of the West. Putin’s threats make it more likely that NATO will intervene directly, not less so. They can’t allow an adversary to casually suggest he’ll launch a nuclear attack just because his generals are incompetent. If this were just a border dispute, western Europe would be far less likely to stay committed to Ukraine’s defense, they’d still be recommending Zelensky find ways to allow Putin to save face.

    Putin’s threats of nuclear attack against Ukraine and NATO, his repeated shelling of the Zaporizhzha power plant , the use of rape, torture and murder against civilian populations as an approved tactic, even his willingness to force his own citizens into the meat grinder show he assigns no value to human life.

    He cannot be allowed to succeed with a nuclear threat.

  148. 148.

    guest

    @HumboldtBlue: what bone of contention? I looked at their twitter feed after reading adam’s comments, came back and said they had a pinned tweet and quoted it. not one bit rude and as mildly contentious as I can be.

    in all the years I’ve looked in on the comments, it’s had a similar vibe.

    the black friends comment is insane. if you knew my personal values, actions, history and number of rescue animals I currently have, you would not say that to me. it’s the fucking presumption and cliquishness of the heavies in here that I rightly have a problem with.

    please excuse the interruption.

  149. 149.

    Mike in NC

    Like so many other organizations, Amnesty International has likely been taken over by Russian oligarchs who fund anti-democratic groups in the west.

  150. 150.

    Andrya

    @Anoniminous:  The ammo will come from ammo depots and will be moved forward by train.  The Ukrainian military has proved extremely adept at hitting ammo depots and ammo supply trains.

    And there’s also the issue of training the newly mobilized troops…

  152. 152.

    Anoniminous

    @Jinchi: ​
     

    If the EU gives way to Putin’s nuclear blackmail they will be under Russia’s thumb for the foreseeable future.

  157. 157.

    Anoniminous

    @Andrya: ​
     

    Since the Sino-Russian war, Russian “tactics” (sic) have largely consisted of putting a huge whacking mob in a big line, shouting “ur-RAH!,”charging into a interlocking machine gun fire, and hoping the defenders run out of bullets. Don’t need a whole bunch of training to do that. It does take a Commander in Chief who doesn’t give a damn about the number of dead and wounded.

  158. 158.

    livewyre

    @Jay: As much as bigotry and abuse need answering, I could see a case for self-evident social desperation to be best left to humiliate itself. Still a bit creepy though.

  160. 160.

    HumboldtBlue

    @guest:

    it’s the fucking presumption and cliquishness of the heavies in here that I rightly have a problem with.

    As a lightweight who eschews cliques and just comments, I have no idea what your point is.

    I’ll be your black friend, if needed, however.

    By the way, and on another note; What is a bone of contention, and how did we end up chewing it?

  162. 162.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    @guest: God, you’re dense. Stomping and flouncing implies childishness. If you’re trying to accuse me of homophobia, it might help you to know I’m queer.

    You came in here and called the author of this post, someone I think everyone here has the utmost respect for, “shrill” because he very rightly pushed back on your weird defense of AI. There was no cause to respond to him as you did. Then you start up this bizarre whining about how long you’ve been reading the blog, as though that means a single fucking thing. Who gives a shit? Does being a reader of this blog for a certain number of years earn you a Get Out Of Dickhead Jail Free card?

    You came in and acted like an ass. People pushed back. And you’re digging in your heels. Go to bed, child.

  163. 163.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @HumboldtBlue:

    Something about this sentence:

    if you knew my personal values, actions, history and number of rescue animals I currently have, you would not say that to me.

    Made me laugh out loud! I think it was the “number of rescue animals I currently have” that did it for me. As if that has any relevance. “I have many black friends so I’m not a racist!”

  167. 167.

    Sally

    @Adam L Silverman: Yes, it was the least they could do and they did the least they could possibly do.  The report was very useful to Ru for a much needed propaganda campaign.  Whether that was corrupt or incompetent, I couldn’t say, but that they haven’t retracted the report, and sacked the President, facts tend to point in one direction.  IMHO, AI has always been a bit picky and choosy about who and what they condemn.  Decades ago, when I was going to join AI, I found they refused to condemn FGM.  I was told they considered it a “cultural issue”.  So women being tortured and killed was a “cultural issue”.  Haven’t contributed to AI since.  I also have misgivings about the ICRC.  Again, corruption or incompetence, you decide!  The arm in arm, smiling with Lavrov, didn’t impress me.  And they certainly haven’t followed through with the UA POW’s.   My money goes elsewhere.

  168. 168.

    Ksmiami

    @Omnes Omnibus: I want to reinforce Ukraine and alleviate their suffering- I do not want a million feral Russians killing and torturing civilians so – ? We as in collective NATO haven’t done enough. Hell, Germany hasn’t even sent promised weapons

  169. 169.

    ColoradoGuy

    The NKVD/KGB/FSB really must be awfully good at MICE. Amnesty International, a good chunk of the GOP leadership, Trump going back to the Nineties, Rupert Murdoch, the list goes on … either Tankie-style bothsiderism, or a steady undermining of democratic values.

    It calls to mind Grover Norquist’s promise to shrink the Federal government until it was “small enough to drown in a bathtub” in Grover’s memorable phrase. This was back in the early Nineties. And which nation would benefit the most from a collapse of the US government?

  170. 170.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    It’s an ugly problem: if doing the right thing causes the end of the world, is it actually the right thing to do?

  171. 171.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Chetan Murthy: I would say a related thing, which is that: Emotionally, around here, right now feels very much like (a less intense version of) the period right after 9/11, when an atrocity had been committed against Americans, it was very very clear to everyone who the bad guys were, and many people in the US across the entire political spectrum from right-wingers to liberals immediately wanted to go to war over it.

    We know how that ended: bad actors running the US government exploited those emotions to get us into wars almost as stupid as Putin’s. I was personally rolled and have been kicking myself for decades over this.

    I’m not going to go Bob in Portland here and say this means everything we know is wrong. We do know who the bad guys are right now. But I will say we can thank our lucky stars that we have Joe Biden in charge right now, and not George W. Bush and Dick Cheney (or, my God, Donald Trump, who for all I know might have wanted us to throw in on Putin’s side).

    And that even when you’re in the right, war fever can lead you to bad places.

  173. 173.

    HeartlandLiberal

    I also posted to Twitter:

    In my collection of return address labels I just threw away those from @amnesty
    International. I will never donate to them again. I wonder why the radio silence from @amnesty
    on this evidence, again, of Russian war crimes?

  174. 174.

    Geminid

    Reports and video are still making their way out of Iran despite the regime shutting down much of the internet and social media. Protests continued yesterday and last night despite the increasing use of gun fire by security forces. One count is that they have now spread to 136 cities and towns. Oshnaviah(sp?), in the Kurdish region of western Iran, has been taken by the protesters, with security and Revolutionary Guard personnel fleeing the city.

    The President, Raisi, returned to Iran yesterday from the UN gathering on New York. He is very much a hardliner; reports are that after taking office this past June Raisi encouraged the crackdown by the “morality police” that resulted in Mahsa Amini’s murder.

    The issue now goes far beyond morality  police behavior, though. The protesters want to topple the regime, and its unlikely the government can do anything to appease them. Raisi is a true believer in the Islamic Republic and will ruthlessly suppress these demonstrations if he can.  i think the question now is, how many of the security forces will gun down their compatriots, and how many will refuse to.

  175. 175.

    Birdie

    @Chetan Murthy: idk what if the ‘room’ is being a bloodthirsty fox news mob but isn’t self-aware enough to see how similar their behavior is to those they hate?

    For all the negative talk about “purity politics” here (see: Bernie Sanders) it’s fascinating to see what reductionist, binary hills you all will die on. Convicting Amnesty of thought crimes for daring to police the West even once (even with countless caveats about how Russia is the aggressor) is an interesting choice.

  176. 176.

    Ivan X

    Ok, I’m sure I’m going to regret saying this, but I am feeling slightly protective of “guest,” perhaps because, as an infrequent commenter, a few years back, I offered up a contrarian opinion, inartfully and perhaps not thoughtfully expressed, and was flayed for it in abusive language by the regulars. And I do think when one is a longtime blog reader, even if an infrequent poster, one does imagine oneself as part of its community and values, and it’s painful to have everyone in that community shred you for stating your opinion.

    And I do think we can unknowingly slip into hivemind here or, worse, behave like a mob. When we tell someone “you haven’t read the room,” to an infrequent or new poster, it’s cliquish; it’s saying “you’re not one of us.” Why should anyone have to read the room? We’re a community of different voices.

    With that said, guest, it seemed you were annoyed that no one supported your nuance/defense of AI, and when Alison Rose said she didn’t like what you had to say to Adam, in fairly benign terms (“you need to adjust your standards”) you began to escalate by being defensive and snotty, and then Alison Rose escalated in response to that with “piss off,” and from that you went all the way to “fuck you” and being patronizing. Once we reach “fuck you” we’ve lost each other. You had an opportunity to back down that you didn’t take, so you have some responsibility to bear in the subsequent pile-on that goes beyond the blog being cliquish.

    TL;dr: When we are saying fuck you or calling each other fucking sacks of shit, we’re doing it wrong. Or so I think.

    I apologize for talking about various people in this post in third person and past them and indirectly.

  177. 177.

    Curt

    Lurker making his first post. Can’t believe how aggressive some of you have gotten in your escalations against Guest. Perhaps posting late on a Friday isn’t a good idea? Must you shout down anyone who disagrees with Adam? And is completely tearing down Amnesty really warranted? Seeing some comments with names I’d learned to respect that are just not worthy of hitting publish.

  178. 178.

    Geminid

    @Ivan X: I share your feelings on this matter. I’ve seen a couple people chased away for voicing opinions that that I did not think were so very objectional except t for exaggerations on the part of the objectors. Perhaps because I’m relatively new to this forum, I held my tongue. But it could be that I just lacked the moral courage to stand up for them, and I’ve since regretted my passivity .

  179. 179.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Birdie: “Policing the West”?? I’m sorry, did you read their report? They criticized the Ukrainians for defending themselves against a war of genocide. The report was immediately seized on as a propaganda victory by the aggressor and led the head of Amnesty Ukraine to resign in protest. They were not “policing,” they were blaming the victim.

    Faced with the clearest case of good vs evil that many of us will see, Amnesty scored an own goal and haven’t done nearly enough to atone. They are now, unfortunately, not just irrelevant but toxic in this war.

  180. 180.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Geminid: If someone has been reading this blog for 20 years, calling Adam “shrill” doesn’t seem like the way you’d want to begin a discussion.

  181. 181.

    evodevo

    @Chetan Murthy: See: ‘Murrica, circa 1968-72…Most of the middle class Repub parents I knew were all on the side of patriotic jingoism sending “the boys” over there, even though by that time all of US knew exactly what was going on and decrying the slaughter…a lot didn’t come around til years later, and some – like my career Army BIL – STILL think we “could have won if the commie pinkos hadn’t undercut the effort”…and by the way hippies spit on returning troops, so there!!11!!!  And this from a guy who never did deploy to a war zone till the 1st Gulf War, and even then never saw actual combat…

  183. 183.

    TurnItOffAndOnAgain

    @Ksmiami:

     I want to reinforce Ukraine and alleviate their suffering- I do not want a million feral Russians killing and torturing civilians so –?

    All the killing and torturing would stop if everyone involved was dead from a nuclear blast, yes. You do have a point there.

  184. 184.

    Sally

    @Gin & Tonic: The main point to me was that the AI report was worded in such a way that Ru was able to easily use it as its own propaganda. AI is an experienced international operator, the directorate should have known better, and probably did.  These people are not naïve.  They are not publishing reports in a local newsletter, they know their reports are going to be scrutinised on the international stage where the subject is a war that is killing and maiming thousands of people every day.  AI has a responsibility if it wants a reputation of being only on the side of human rights, to be careful, to be smart, with what they say and how they say it. No excuse to be “inartful”.  And to have not taken the UA office into consideration was, what can I say, an inexcusable mistake. Yes, way down the paragraphs they got around to “war is difficult and it’s not all UA’s fault”, but by then Ru has all it needed to excuse itself for murdering civilians.  AI gave Ru the headlines it needed.  Since then AI has done nothing at all to reframe the report. Just mealy mouthed explanations.
    Adam is the last person I would refer to as “shrill”.

  185. 185.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Chetan Murthy:

    the most basic human instinct — to protect one’s progeny

    A lot of really, REALLY obvious rules in evolutionary behavior turn out to not be real when you look closely.  Usually, they turn out to be just one factor among many.  Humanity has a long history of hurting our own children.

    @trollhattan:

    If the abuse of a member of an oppressed ethnic minority is causing riots in rural areas, the Iranian population really, really doesn’t like theocracy anymore.  Whatever happens during this wave of rebellion, that seems important.

  186. 186.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Chetan Murthy: ​…the most basic human instinct — to protect one’s progeny — and it seems like some Russians don’t have it.

    @Frankensteinbeck: Humanity has a long history of hurting our own children.​

    “Humanity” has a long history of treating its own children as property. Whose primary justification for existence is to exalt and exult the parents, grandparents, great-grandparents…and the tribe to which they all belong. In the process amplifying their resentments, continuing their vendettas and fighting their wars.

  187. 187.

    Geminid

    @Frankensteinbeck: Ms. Amini’s Kurdish identity may not have been a factor in her murder, except insofar as she was visiting Tehran and enforcement of the hijab law was probably more stringent there than in her hometown. The protests in Kurdistan Province were more immediate and determined, though, and that is where the first killings by security forces occurred.

    One question I have is whether Kurds across the border in Iraq will give material support to their Iranian brethren. The Iranian regime will try to savagely crush opposition in Oshnavia(sp?), the northwestern town reported to be in the hands of protesters . The Kurds in the three semiautonomous provinces of Iraq that border Iran will not want to see a massacre. Iranian expats in Iraqi Kurdistan may be returning home with weapons.

  188. 188.

    Another Scott

    @Gin & Tonic: Since this place started as a RW blog, bragging about being here from the beginning might be a clue?  Or it might not be.  Dunno.

    guest seems to be sealioning to me.  S/he knows how this stuff works.  If people want to play along on a Friday night, that’s their business.  I can’t imagine anyone’s mind will be changed.  And it can always be shut down if it gets out of hand.

    My $0.02.

    (Now, let’s see if it did get out of hand…)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  189. 189.

    evodevo

    @Another Scott: I’ve been an AI contributor for years…not this time…I will be sending back their begging letters with a letter of my own…no money till you fully recant

  190. 190.

    Ksmiami

    @TurnItOffAndOnAgain: why is everyone so sure this is the outcome if we only support fighting in Ukraine and not inside Russia? In other words, why is Russia allowed to wage this war without the consequence of a League of Nations coming more directly to assist a brother nation in need? I’m not sure every outcome results in a mushroom cloud; that’s all.

  191. 191.

    Jinchi

    @Matt McIrvin: ​
     

    Donald Trump, who for all I know might have wanted us to throw in on Putin’s side

    This isn’t even in question. Trump had already thrown in on Putin’s side. He supported the Russian line on annexation of Crimea, he extorted Zelensky by withholding military aid, he called Putin a ‘savvy genius’ for his invasion back in February. And his administration was filled with people like Mike Flynn who praised Russia’s invasion because it ‘disrupted the “New World Order”‘.

    If he’d been re-elected not only would he have supported Russia in this war, he would have exited NATO and sat down with Putin to divide Europe between them, surrendering allies like Poland and Moldova to Putin’s sphere of domination.

  192. 192.

    Bill Arnold

    @Mike in NC:

    Like so many other organizations, Amnesty International has likely been taken over by Russian oligarchs who fund anti-democratic groups in the west.

    Maybe look at their reports? Here’s their Russian Federation collection, that goes back years:
    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/?qlocation=1995

    My guess, also without evidence, is that a small subgroup in the organization started huffing anti-Ukraine propaganda of Russian origin during 2012-2022-pre-invasion, and they were unable to properly mentally deal with the realities of the invasion, and that awful report how the Ukrainian military should not defend cities got published, because somebodies at the top of the organization were similarly compromised. It happens. They need to do a small purge, probably just a few individuals, to regain trust.
    It is of course possible that there was a more direct takeover,; if there is evidence that would survive a brief check, please share it.

  193. 193.

    Jinchi

    @Ksmiami: ​
      It’s a bit of a stretch to say that Russia is being allowed to wage this war without consequence. They’ve lost tens of thousands of soldiers and a significant chunk of their military machine thanks in part to aid from the west.

    But what you’re suggesting is NATO forces, fighting in Russia, and that turns a war that’s currently contained locally into a world war. I don’t think Ukraine comes out better in that scenario.

  194. 194.

    Another Scott

    @Jinchi: +1

    And it couldn’t have been more obvious (to people willing to look) by the time of the writing of the GQP platform in 2016:

    July 22, 2016
    Source:

    New York Times
    By: Ben Cardin

    Re “A Most Extreme Republican Platform” (editorial, July 19):

    Given the trajectory of the Republican Party over the last two decades, culminating in the nomination of Donald Trump for president, it comes as little surprise that the party platform is the most extreme it has ever been.

    From my foreign policy role in the Senate, I want to call attention to the Republican Party’s apparently new position that the United States should not provide military assistance to Ukraine, as alluded to in its platform.

    There is broad, bipartisan support for standing steadfast with Ukraine through political, economic and military support after Russia’s invasion two years ago. Russia’s aggression violated international law, robbed Ukraine of its sovereign territory, and killed and wounded thousands of people.

    Mr. Trump speaks glowingly of President Vladimir V. Putin and underestimates the damage done by Russia in Eastern Europe. It is also worth pointing out that Paul Manafort, the Trump campaign chairman, served as a consultant for Viktor F. Yanukovich, the ousted president of Ukraine, who now lives in exile in Russia.

    Mr. Trump has already indicated that he is willing to walk away from our allies in Eastern Europe. It is unfortunate that the Republican Party now reflects that dangerous thinking.

    BEN CARDIN

    Washington

    Mueller wanted to ask TFG about that. TFG only provided weaselly written answers. (Muller Report, Appendix C, Question IV(f)):

    I have no recollection of the details of what, when, or from what source l first learned about the change to the platform amendment regarding arming Ukraine, but I generally recall learning of the issue as part of media reporting. I do not recall being involved in changing the language to the amendment.

    [blink]TOTAL WITCHHUNT!!1ONE[/blink]

    He always gives the “I have no recollection/I do not recall” when cornered.

    Grr…,
    Scott.

  195. 195.

    Ksmiami

    @Jinchi: not necessarily our forces etc just a hell of a lot more support and aid and advisors… and … plus has anyone thought about what happens if Russia runs rampant and ends up decimating Ukraine and now has a military ready to move into More countries? I just don’t think it’s bad to bolster Ukraine so the country can clearly win.

  197. 197.

    Tony G

    @Anoniminous: Almost half of the residents of Mariupol are Russian-speaking.  Civilians in Mariupol were slaughtered by the Russian Army anyway.  The notion that the “special military operation” is being perpetuated by the Russian military in defense of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine is just another one of Putin’s lies.

  199. 199.

    Chetan Murthy

    oof.  It feels like there’s an element of truth here.  I remember other videos of individual protestors getting taken by the po-po in RU cities, and nobody around them steps up to help them.  And this is similar.  It feels like something’s wrong with RU society.  Then again, maybe it’d be the same in the US.

    Law enforcers in Moscow detained a 17-year-old blind girl while she was sitting on a bench and waiting for her parents.
    But ruZZians don’t care. Even if they had raped her right there, the ruZZians would have just filmed it and stood silently. Scums. pic.twitter.com/X6N2wcw4V9
    — Український нічний месник (@NichnyjMesnyk) September 24, 2022

  200. 200.

    way2blue

    @Another Scott: I could never understand what ‘guest’ was trying to say.  But for the record, I starting reading Balloon Juice when John was still a Republican because he had a reputation as a thoughtful conservative.  And I felt—after not paying attention to politics till GW Bush became president—that I needed to do my homework so to speak, eat my spinach, whatever…  to understand folks with different takes on current events.  Been a long fascinating journey.  Love the community here.

  201. 201.

    Ken B

    I think Iran is quickly moving to the point where the organized men with the guns will have to choose a side.

    The morality police will stand with the goverment, because they’re thugs that like hurting people and are about as popular as cancer. If the government falls, they’re in deep trouble.

    The street level police have stood with the government so far, but they seem to be getting progressively less willing to use force against the protesters. Under the right circumstsnces, I can see at least some of them changing sides.

    So far the armed forces, including the Revolutionary Guards seem to be watching from the sidelines.

    I don’t think that remain an option for them much longer.

  203. 203.

    Chetan Murthy

    A joke from Moscow:
    Patriarch Kirill announces that all Russian soldiers dying in war in Ukraine will immediately go to heaven.
    Hearing this Heaven immediately applies for NATO membership.
    — Eerik N Kross (@EerikNKross) September 24, 2022

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