Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Presidents are not kings, and Plaintiff is not President.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

John Fetterman: Too Manly for Pennsylvania.  Paid for by the Oz for Senator campaign.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

This blog will pay for itself.

“More of this”, i said to the dog.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

We still have time to mess this up!

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

You are here: Home / Political Fundraising / Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 / Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (WA-03 Added)

Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (WA-03 Added)

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One of our Bj peeps, Kent, suggested that we consider adding Marie Glusenkamp Perez (WA-03) to our Winnable House Races in Purple Districts thermometer.  I did some research and I wasn’t convinced – until I found some information that was published just yesterday in a local paper.

Unless you customize the amounts, donations to this thermometer will now be split 7 ways.

Marcy Kaptur  (OH-09)
Sharice Davids  (KS-03)
Gabe Vasquez  (NM-02)
Elaine Luria  (VA-02)
Susan Wild (PA-07)
Josh Riley  (NY-19)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03)

 Winnable House Races Purple Districts

Kent:

I would add Marie Gluesenkamp Perez here in the WA-3rd.  The incumbent GOP-er Jaime Herrera Beutler went down to a rabid Q-Anon Trumper type.  So I think the seat is winnable, especially in light of Dobbs.  And Marie is a really good candidate for this district.

The most recent polling has Joe Kent leading by +4 The one before that had Marie leading by +2. It was a Trump +4 district in 2020.

After Jaime Herrera Beutler was defeated in the primary it shifted from solid Republican to leans Republican by Cooks.

She is running very hard on Dobbs and calling out Kent for his MAGA extremism, especially on abortion. Other than Dobbs she is running more or less as a blue collar Democrat which suits this district.

It will be an uphill battle. But it is winnable I think. We shall see.

Local reporting that I found today:

A poll published by the Northwest Progressive Institute shows Democratic congressional hopeful Marie Glusenkamp Perez trailing Donald Trump-endorsed Republican Joe Kent by just three percentage points in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.

In a poll of 834 likely District 3 voters surveyed Sept. 19-20, 44% said they would vote for Glusenkamp Perez and 47% said they would vote for Kent.

Nine percent said they were unsure.

Glusenkamp Perez’s campaign represents one of the strongest Democratic contenders for an upset victory in the 2022 midterm elections, as the 3rd Congressional District hasn’t been won by a Democrat since 2008 when Brian Baird defeated Republican Michael Delavar.

More about her here:  Marie for Congress

Reminder: all of the targeted fundraising thermometers for this fall are in the sidebar, and also at the link below.  Besides this one, there are thermometers for the AZ Executives (Firewall) and one for Charlie Crist so we can give DeSantis the boot, and make him a one-term governor and a zero-term president!

All Targeted Fundraising Thermometers

Totally open thread!

Reader Interactions

72Comments

  4. 4.

    H.E.Wolf

    As a former coveralls-at-work employee (complete with embroidered name on pocket), I appreciated the photo on Perez’s campaign website.

  10. 10.

    Miss Bianca

    @WaterGirl: Working up a case for Brittany Pedersen, CO’s CD-7. Yes, CO is considered a “blue” state, but…Loren Boebert ring a bell for anyone?

    Anyway, let’s keep it in mind – right now, I’m a bit distracted by the fact that Roxy has been horking all morning with nothing to show for it up until a little while ago – now I’m seeing little shards of bone…

  11. 11.

    RaflW

    @Princess: According to OpenSecrets Kaptur has raised $1.83M. That’s $600K more than she raised in 2020. For a hotly contested seat, under $2M is not great (dang, I hate how xpensive these things have become). But if her opponent really is being cut loose, I’d agree that a narrowly targeted Juice list could drop her.

  12. 12.

    RaflW

    @Miss Bianca: CO-7 is a D+7 seat. Cook has it as likely Dem. I’m all for boosting CO’s role as a purple-to-blue state, but I think Petterson is likely getting what she needs.

    (I on the other hand, made a case several days about about Yadira Caraveo. I just attended a Women of Color DCCC online fundraiser that included Ms. C. I think she has a shot. CO-08 is PVI-even, but rated tossup-Republican. Eeep.)

  13. 13.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Miss Bianca:

    Working up a case for Brittany Pedersen, CO’s CD-7. Yes, CO is considered a “blue” state, but…Loren Boebert ring a bell for anyone?

    Is that Perlmutter’s seat? His victories were never huge, as I recall?

  14. 14.

    WaterGirl

    @Princess: I would probably argue both sides of that in a debate, because not a soul has voted yet,

    But I did wonder about the same thing about Marcy Kaptur after hearing the news.

    What do the rest of you think?

  18. 18.

    WaterGirl

    @RaflW: Which thread was that in?  Do you recall?  I have been making my way through all the suggestions, but maybe I missed that.

    edit: never mind, I just found the thread.  A week ago Thursday.  I think I hadn’t checked back far enough for nominations.

  19. 19.

    WaterGirl

    From RaflW  (bringing forward from last week)

    I worry that Angie Craig MN-02 isn’t getting enough attention. She’s in her second term, which usually is pretty safe. But as an out lesbian in a relatively conservative suburban zone (only D+1 (or even PVI depending on who you ask)), I’d say that Cook’s “tossup Dem” rating is sadly credible.

    Compounding my concern is that a recent poll has Walz (D incumbent gov.) running away against a total turd Repub. If that expected victory depresses turnout, Angie could be on the bubble. I cannot tolerate the idea that our state, despite voting for every Dem for potus for decades, might have a 5-3 R/D House delegation if Craig loses! Ouch. (There’s a tiny chance MN-01 could flip blue, but really slim. I’m really rooting for -and donating monthly to- Jen Schultz in MN-08, but she’s a longshot. The other R districts are much tougher (and the other D seats are safe).

    So, long story short: Maybe add Angie Craig, MN-02 – or if folks feel willing, go direct? I have!!

    More from RaflW:

    That’s actually a great question, and I hadn’t looked. Angie (I’m not sure who the ‘he’ is you asked about?) had $4.7M on hand in July to the Repub’s $551K remaining in the bank, so (blush) nevermind.

  20. 20.

    WaterGirl

    Mathguy from last week:

    NE-2 with Tony Vargas could be included here. Bacon is your bog standard GOP turd (and dumb as a box of rocks, according to a friend that knows him) and the race is rated a toss-up by Cook’s political report

    More info from Geminid:

    The NE 2nd was carried by Joe Biden in 2020. He got an electoral vote out of it because Nebraska awards one for each congressional district won, plus two more for whover wins the state.

    Don Bacon is a retired Air Force general. He’s pretty conservative but he’s still on the moderate side of the House Republican caucus, Bacon’s one of the Republicans who voted for the Infrastructure bill. That got him on trump’s shit list but Bacon still survived his primary.

    Tony Vargas, Bacon’s challenger, is an educator.

    Additional info from mar:

    Yes, Vargas in NE2. Effective legislator in the NE Leg. Lost his dad to covid. Represents his district well in NE Legislature. Good campaigner in a Congressional district that barely went to Bacon (R who is running again) when NE2 went for Biden. It has since been redistricted but they (the Rs in the legislature) have trouble gerrymandering the Omaha District or else they put NE1 (my district) into play. It could be in play anyway. Vargas is more seasoned than the previous candidate.  And Bacon is running to the right.

    And he called me up to ask for my support way back when the Congressional campaign all started, and I was happy to give it to him along with some of my money. If I were betting I would bet that he pulls it off. It would be a gain for the Ds if he does

    More on Bacon from mvr:

    Not so moderate if you follow his twitter feed which is all anti-Biden. Also too, he just signed onto Graham’s abortion ban bill. He (foolishly to my mind) has decided to run to the right, at least online.

    NE’s elected Rs in the east are not fanatical Trump backers you get in many rural places, and this does not look like a winning strategy to me. Bacon barely pulled his bacon out of the fire last time against a pretty inexperienced candidate. I don’t think he’ll do it again. And it would be a D pickup

    More Mathguy:

    Sorry about not replying earlier. mvr and others covered it pretty well. I live in NE-2, so have a horse in this race. Obama won in ‘08 here, and Biden did last election. Eastman last time around was a poor candidate and she ran close to Bacon, 48-52 if I recall correctly. The legislature tried to gerrymander it, but as was mentioned they had to be careful with NE-1 (Lincoln and surrounds). With some help from the FSM, it would be amusing to see Nebraska with 2 Democrats in the House out of 3.

  21. 21.

    WaterGirl

    Gravie from last week:

    OregonCD5, a new district, pits Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a true progressive with rural roots, experience in international humanitarian work, and immense personal integrity, against Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a dead-eyed opportunist who espouses MAGA views. Jamie has built a great grass-roots campaign that was instrumental in her surprise primary win over Dem incumbent Doug Schrader. This is a winnable race although it may be close.

    And from Formerly Disgruntled in Oregon:

    In OR-5, we finally primaried odious DINO Kurt Schreader. Now we have to elect awesome Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and keep the seat blue!

    But it’s going to be a close race, and Jamie needs our support.

    Ah, I see that I had questions in that thread that I don’t think were answered:

    So the incumbent was a democrat.  What was he like?  Blue dog?   What is the district like? A place where someone more progressive can win?  Or a more conservative district that is less likely to elect a more progressive candidate?

  22. 22.

    la caterina

    I feel like we gotta do everything we can to keep control of the House.  Since I gave $25 to Charlie Crist, it’s only fair that I should give $25 each to these House candidates.  Trusting your picks, WaterGirl!

  23. 23.

    WaterGirl

    More on Yadira Caraveo from RaflQ from last week.

    Yadira Caraveo is a pediatrician and is campaigning from a base as a state legislator. My big concern here is that the CO redistricting process has set up a state that could, a bit like MN, have a delegation that is 4:4 D:R despite how the state votes Dem for governor, president or (fingers crossed) senate.

    Urban and high-population suburban House districts end up D+30 (making that up, but you get the idea) and then more rural districts are mostly R+10 or so (except that nightmare Boebert’s district. Damn it’s a mess – yet it contains so much ski territory – places where she’d just laugh if climate change borked the snow permanently. She’s a ghoul. But I digress!)

    The newly created CO-08 runs from the NE suburbs of Denver, skirting east of Boulder, and up the Platte River valley to ag-centered Greeley. If the rest of America wasn’t so damn gerrymandered, I’d actually think this was a good old fashioned swing district. But we have so few of them, that it could be the vote that seats a GOP speaker in 2023. Gaah.

    As to money, Ms. Caraveo has raised considerably more than her GOP opponent in ‘hard money’ but the GOPer has matched the Dem by pulling in $800K in outside spending, to Yadira’s couple thou of interest group cash.

    The race is not yet swimming in money (by 2022 standards, anyway) at about $1.1M each … when you add in outside billionaire Repubs thumbing the scale on the other side.

  24. 24.

    WaterGirl

    James E Powell from last week:

    Three California districts with Republican one term incumbents who won by very narrow margins in 2020:

    27th – D+4 – Rematch of 2020. Christy Smith lost to Garcia by 333 votes out of 338,943.

    40th – R+2 – Dr. Asif Mahmood against Young Kim.

    45th – D+2 – Jay Chen against Michelle Steel (not the bass player).

  25. 25.

    WaterGirl

    This was from BlueGuitarist, who I wrote to, but I don’t think he has replied yet:

    I think these 4 candidates are great, along with others suggested. my suggestion: focus on places where up and down the ballot we have multiple candidates who could win.

    Marcy Kaptur getting more people out to vote for Democrats would also help Ryan for US Senate, Nan Whaley for governor, the 3 State Supreme Court candidates, and the other statewide candidates. And while we can’t flip the gerrymandered Ohio legislature, down-ballot that could help win swing seats for state house and state senate that overlap Kaptur’s district.

    In the districts I’ve been looking at in Ohio, the average for D+R candidates for

    State house: 100k

    State Senate: 200k

    US House 2 million

    So a good additional thing to do is raise money for the down-ballot candidates in these overlapping districts. For example, in Kaptur’s district, a state house candidate Erika White, local union president (CWA)

    https://erikaforohio.org/

    Money matters more to down-ballot candidates since they have so much less, and they are more likely to use it for direct voter contact, more effective than TV advertising.

    I’ve been putting together a list of diverse candidates in key down-ballot districts in swing US House, US Senate seats; if (hoping) you’re interested.

  26. 26.

    WaterGirl

    Geminid from last week:

    @James E Powell: The CA 36th CD may be another Democratic pickup opportunity in Southern California. The latest redistricting added Palm Springs to the district. According to a NYT article from two weeks ago, Palm Springs is a “liberal bastion” that gives Democrat Will Rollins a good shot at unseating veteran incumbent Ken Calvert.

    The interior portions of Southern California used to be a Republican stronghold, but starting at least 10 years ago Democrats have been making strong inroads. Pete Aguilar flipped one district (in 2014 I think), then the following cycle Lou Correa flipped another. Democrats flipped  6 more seats in 2018, although Republicans won back 3 or 4  of them in 2020. Some of this shift may be caused by demographic change, but the radical shift in the Republican party has probably contributed its share.

  27. 27.

    WaterGirl

    Yikes, I must have completely forgotten to go back and mine that thread for suggestions!  At least they are all here now in one place.

    Thoughts?

  28. 28.

    WaterGirl

    Nominations:

    Yadira Caraveo, CO-08
    Brittany Pedersen, CO’-07
    Angie Craig, MN-02
    Tony Vargas, NE-02
    Jamie McLeod-Skinner, OR-05

    My question on these 3 CA races is this:  I would guess that all of these are already rolling in money.  Is that a good guess?

    CA-27 – D+4 – Rematch of 2020. Christy Smith lost to Garcia by 333 votes out of 338,943.

    CA-40 – R+2 – Dr. Asif Mahmood against Young Kim.

    CA-45

  29. 29.

    Miss Bianca

    @RaflW: Let’s just say, as a citizen of CD-3 who has just been re-districted out of CD-7, that I wished I shared your confidence that there’s nothing to worry about.

  30. 30.

    Bupalos

    @Princess: Pulling the ad buy now doesn’t mean they’re giving up on the seat or even unlikely to win it, or that they won’t put money into that race late.

    It does mean recalibration, and probably waiting to see how the Kaptur campaign attacks.

  31. 31.

    Miss Bianca

    @WaterGirl: he’s bad enough – a slick Aryan weasel who’s hoping that his “I served in Iraq” schtick will cover for his anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ stances

  36. 36.

    Kent

    Based from what I have seen, Marie Glusenkamp Perez has been all over the district and is campaigning pretty relentlessly.  She’s a Reed College econ grad but she and her husband own a mechanic garage and she is really doing the blue collar thing.  Photo ops driving around their farm on ATVs, always in boots, etc.  Joe Kent seems to be pretty absent (he’s not from here anyway) and seems to basically be phoning it in by basically just going on right wing media.

    We shall see.  It kind of depends on how riled up the rural MAGAts are in November compared to suburban Vancouverites who care about Dobbs and not electing an Trumpy election denier.  But Marie is a much better candidate than any of the previous ones we have had.  At least for this district.

    Being in the WA-3rd is sort of like living in TX.  You keep thinking that demographics is eventually going to flip it blue.  But it never quite happens.  The blue areas are growing much faster than the red areas so it seems inevitable.  But the when is the big question.

  38. 38.

    WaterGirl

    Everybody, please weigh in if you have opinions on any of the nominations I brought forward into the comments on this post.

    Or suggest someone else who you think would be a good strategic investment.

  39. 39.

    dnfree

    I just donated and within 2 minutes I got a text from Josh Riley informing me that I had signed up to receive texts. YES, I know I can text Stop and I did, but it’s still annoying. I wish there were some way on ActBlue to specify no texts from anyone ever.

  42. 42.

    FastEdD

    @WaterGirl: I live in CA-40. We worked for years to flip it and we elected the marvelous Katie Porter. She has now been redistricted out and we are an R+2. We are now stuck with Young Kim, a one term incumbent R whose slogan is “Lower Gas Prices!” As if a single R House rep could accomplish that. Grrr. I’m giving money and working for Asif Mahmood, but I fear he’s not such a good candidate, never been in elective office before. National R’s are now running negative ads against him, and I doubt he is awash in money.

  44. 44.

    Miss Bianca

    @WaterGirl: I just called my neighbor who’s a vet – she advised me to try feeding her a little bread to encase whatever is trying to come up. Off to the grocery store….

  48. 48.

    WaterGirl

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: That is a poorly constructed sentence.

    Did she just [tell us] that she was ready to push the nuclear button during the leadership contest?

    Or did he literals SAY that during the leadership contest?

    And what does the nuclear button have to do with the leadership contest.  She is very bad news, but I’m confused as to the details.

  49. 49.

    WaterGirl

    @Miss Bianca: I should have told you about the bread.

    Also, get something like wonder bread – white bread that will get gummy and glom onto any shards that are there.

    Do not get whole wheat or any GOOD bread.  You want the crappy gummy white bread for this.

    edit: Why, yes, my cocker spaniel did once steal bone-in chicken breasts when she figured out how to open the refrigerator.

  50. 50.

    New Style in Parsons

    I agree with Kent’s comments above. I live in the district, have already donated substantially to her campaign but always ready to help with more. And she needs out help. Please donate.

  51. 51.

    FastEdD

    Regarding CA-40 from the DCCC (D Trip):

    Representative Young Kim has already had a harder time than anticipated keeping her seat in Congress. After doing little to campaign and make the case to the 80% of new voters in her district over the last few months, Kim put herself at risk of losing her seat long before the November general election. In a desperate attempt to stave off an embarrassing loss from a primary on the right, Kim and Kevin McCarthy’s super PAC dumped more than a million dollars into ads before the June 7th primary.

    OTOH Dr. Asif Mahmood has run for office twice before and didn’t win.

    Much is made of Mahmood getting a higher percentage in the top two jungle primary than Young Kim, but the R votes were split. This is a case of winning the primary but being behind in the general.

  53. 53.

    John S.

    WA-08 (my district) is also strangely competitive. The incumbent Kim Schrier would have faced a much tougher fight if her opponent wasn’t a raving MAGA nut job. But that seems to be the only folks capable of winning GOP primaries lately.

  54. 54.

    WaterGirl

    @John S.: Can you say more?  Do you know what the money situation is?  Does Kim Schrier have pretty good cash on hand or does the opponent have more?

    Is your district a toss-up, lean D, lean R, solid D?

  55. 55.

    SuzieC

    @WaterGirl: Please don’t drop Kaptur!  She’s the only Ohioan receiving support from the BJ community. As you pointed out if she gets a big turnout it helps other Dems up and down the ballot.

     

    Also donating an amount divisible by 7.

  56. 56.

    WaterGirl

    @SuzieC: I am going to leave Marcy Kaptur in.  Not a single vote has been cast yet, and just because the Rs pulled out now, that doesn’t mean that a rich R can’t pump money right back in.

    She’s good and I say we fight for her regardless.  And you’re right that all the OH candidates benefit.  Hoping we can take the senate race, too!

    If anyone donating thinks that someone in particular isn’t the best use of funds for the House, they can customize the amounts.  You just have to hit customize before you enter your amount in order to change the split.

  58. 58.

    WaterGirl

    @WaterGirl: You can see that the original 4 have raised more than the folks who were added more recently.

    Josh Riley is my fault – I added him to the list in the thread yesterday, but I forgot to add him to the actual thermometer! So sorry!

    I guess it really is true that you can’t get good help these days. :-)

    I would love to be able to get $5,000 for each of our purple house people, of course the more people we add, the tougher it will be to get there.

    I can give you guys an update every few days if you are interested.

  59. 59.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: Beyond the money raised, I think these threads have a lot of educational value. It’s  good to learn about the Democrats running in these tossup races, and to learn about the challenges and rewards of contesting purple districts, because they are the key to holding on to and expanding our House majority.

    There are a lot of talented incumbents we don’t read much about because they don’t make a lot of national news. When they do get their turn on the national stage, like class of 2018 members Jaime Raskin and Joe Neguse did as Impeachment Managers and Elaine Luria has as a J6 Commitee member, people might say “Wow! Where were they hiding?” But they were hiding in plain sight, and there are many more like them we should know about. I think this series is a good way to learn.

  61. 61.

    gus

    I’m concerned about IL-17. Bustos isn’t running, district is moving more red with each election. Is this Dem seat at risk in Nov.?

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    @WaterGirl:  I reached out to one of our Balloon Juice California peeps to get his input on this.

    I am already familiar with these races.  Honestly there are so many organizations here raising money for these races (especially Christy Smith), that I don’t think Balloon Juice money is a good idea.  It would divert funds from swing states that really need it, to California where our money won’t make any difference.

    California democrats have very few places to put their money in state so these races are covered.

    Sad to say, the democrat running against the otherwise beatable Michelle Steel in Orange County is a pretty weak candidate.

    So I won’t be adding these CA races to the list.

  63. 63.

    WaterGirl

    @gus: I did some research.  This is on the Red-to-Blue list for this year.  I will add Eric Sorensen.

    Monmouth political science professor Robin Johnson said neither party can afford to write off districts like the 17th, which includes parts of Bloomington-Normal and Greater Peoria.

    “It will be very competitive, and I anticipate the parties are going to try to kick money in and resources to try to win this seat,” Johnson said.

    GOP nominee Esther Joy King will face Democrat Eric Sorensen for the highly sought-after seat in the general election in November. Republicans need to capture just five seats to win control of the House.

    Monmouth political science professor Robin Johnson said neither party can afford to write off districts like the 17th, which includes parts of Bloomington-Normal and Greater Peoria.

    “It will be very competitive, and I anticipate the parties are going to try to kick money in and resources to try to win this seat,” Johnson said.

    GOP nominee Esther Joy King will face Democrat Eric Sorensen for the highly sought-after seat in the general election in November. Republicans need to capture just five seats to win control of the House.

  64. 64.

    WaterGirl

    @WaterGirl: Okay, I did a little research on this one.  The Dem has a huge fundraising advantage.  It is considered a true toss-up, but it doesn’t appear that money from us could make a difference.

    Fingers crossed for Angie Craig in MN-02, but this one is not going on the list.

  65. 65.

    WaterGirl

    @WaterGirl: Okay, I did some research on this one.  Rs have some advantage in this one, and a fundraising advantage.  Tony Vargas doesn’t have a lot of money on hand, at least as of the last report.

    I am adding Tony Vargas to the list.

  66. 66.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: And Representative Peltola’s race in Alaska is a tossup I think. She’s “pro choice, pro labor, pro fish and pro family!”

    Ms. Peltola’s special election victory got widespread notice, though, so she may already be attracting a lot of donations.

    And thank you for your good work, Ms. Watergirl! This is a really good series.

  70. 70.

    WaterGirl

    @Geminid: I would LOVE to raise funds for Mary Peltola, but she is getting a lot of national attention, so I think she will likely be in good shape fundraising-wise.

    I’m not sure when the fundraising info gets updated on Open Secrets, but if it turns out that I am wrong, we can add her later.

  71. 71.

    New Style in Parsons

    Article today in NYTimes on Washington CD3 race and our candidate Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. She’s a good one, please help out however much you can.

    Article

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