Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

How stupid are these people?

Donald Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

In after Baud. Damn.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 212: The ICRC Hasn’t Exactly Covered Itself in Glory Either!

War for Ukraine Day 212: The ICRC Hasn’t Exactly Covered Itself in Glory Either!

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While Amnesty has done the least it could do after issuing its egregious report a couple of months back, the ICRC hasn’t covered itself in glory either. At the beginning of Russia’s re-invasion I covered how the ICRC had left its local team in Mariupol to the tender mercy of the Russians. They have also, as many of us suspected, completely failed in their job of protecting the Azovstal defenders while POWs in Russian custody.

Let’s take a quick check in on events in Iran.

If Ghitis is correct, then the stakes have been raised in Iran. Expect an attempted crackdown. It will be brutal. It will be swift. The question is not if it will happen, it will. The question is whether it will work this time or whether something has fundamentally changed. My professional instincts say something has changed, but all I have is a feeling.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Ukrainians!

Today, I signed the decree awarding the title of Hero of Ukraine to Serhiy Sova. A fighter of the glorious 93rd mechanized brigade “Kholodnyi Yar”. He has defended our state – Ukraine since the beginning of the war in 2014, fought for Pisky, for the Donetsk airport. After February 24, he fought in the Kharkiv region.

Serhiy Sova gave his life for Ukraine. We’ve all seen the photo of his hand with blue and yellow bracelets on his wrist. He has worn them as a talisman since 2014. And this photo was one of the first from Izyum, from the mass burial site in the forest that was discovered when the occupiers fled. He was a true warrior and a father that one can be proud of. Eternal memory and honor to the hero!

Eternal glory to all our warriors who gave their lives in battles for our state!

Today I awarded the honorary award “For Courage and Bravery” to three of our brigades. The 1st separate tank Siversk brigade, the 40th separate artillery brigade, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia, the fighters of the 1st separate tank brigade have performed their tasks with dignity and courage. First in the Chernihiv region, and now in the hottest spots of the south and east of our country. In six months, more than a thousand warriors of this brigade were awarded state awards.

Units of the 40th separate artillery brigade defend the state in the Kharkiv direction and do it very bravely and effectively. The proven losses of the Russian army from the fire of this brigade of ours make it clear to all the occupiers that there will be no place for the enemy on our land.

This month, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade achieved good results in the south of our country, liberating a number of settlements in the Kherson region. During the period of the full-scale invasion of Russia, three warriors in the 57th brigade were already awarded the “Gold Star” Order and 275 servicemen received state awards.

By the way, since the establishment of such an award for our military units – and it was established in May of this year – 46 military units have already been awarded for courage and bravery. Of them, 38 military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four military units of the State Border Service, four military units of the National Guard. I am grateful to all of you, guys! Well done!

The heroism and grit of our warriors, the striving for independence and justice, which united all our people, do not leave a single doubt that Ukraine will prevail and that all invaders on our territory will definitely be defeated. Unless they run away. Indeed, it is true.

Once again I want to say to Russians in Russian.

It was no coincidence that the criminal mobilization declared by Russia was immediately called a “mobilization to graves” by the citizens of Russia themselves. Mobilization to graves. The Russian authorities are well aware that they are sending their citizens to death – there are no other options.

Russian commanders do not care about the lives of Russians – they just need to replenish the empty spaces left by the dead, wounded, those who fled or the Russian soldiers that were captured.

Your government does not care who will take these places. Either young IT specialists who did not serve at all, or pensioners who served only in the Soviet army. So, the key moment has come for you: right now it is being decided whether your life will end or not.

It is better not to take a conscription letter than to die in a foreign land as a war criminal.

It is better to run away from criminal mobilization than to be crippled and then bear responsibility in the court for participating in the war of aggression.

It is better to surrender to Ukrainian captivity than to be killed by the strikes of our weapons, absolutely fair strikes, as Ukraine defends itself in this war. We defend the brightest – we defend our lives, our children, our freedom.

What is Russia fighting for? Every citizen of Russia knows – even if many do not admit it, they know for sure – that it is Russia that brings evil.

Ukraine guarantees every Russian soldier who surrenders three things. First, you will be treated in a civilized manner, in accordance with all conventions. Second, no one will know the circumstances of your surrender, no one in Russia will know that your surrender was voluntary. And third, if you are afraid to return to Russia and do not want an exchange, we will find a way to ensure this as well.

Ukraine will do everything for its victory. And every citizen of Russia should understand: no tricks will help the occupier. I promise you that.

We will retaliate against every strike of the aggressor – at Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Nikopol, Donbas, at all our cities and regions… We will definitely liberate our entire country – from Kherson to the Luhansk region, from Crimea, I emphasize that, to the Donetsk region.

We will not allow the occupier to go unpunished. Every murderer and torturer will be brought to justice for what he did against us, Ukrainians.

Eternal glory to all our heroes!

Glory to our indomitable people!

Eternal memory to all those who gave their lives for our homeland – for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent update regarding the situation in Izium:

This is what the Russians are saying about what the Ukrainian military is doing:

If you click on the link there’s a second tweet with a correct screengrab of the original Russian.

Here’s the English translation as a screengrab:

I would not want to be holed up in Isengard…

I can feel the tetanus through this tweet!

The rusty AKs are not only par for the course, but actually in better shape than a lot of the equipment and material that the Kremlin is providing the troops:

And here’s the English translation as a screengrab:

I’m not going to post them, but I’ve now watched about a dozen different videos/video clips of recently mobilized/conscripted Russians at the in-processing centers or at the training sites they’re being sent to. Leaving aside the ones where everyone is falling down drunk, a lot of these videos look like they were filmed in homeless shelters. And that’s probably an insult to homeless shelters.

This mobilization is going to be a mess and it is not going to work. Whether it creates the conditions to weaken Putin in any significant way is an open question.

For you logistics enthusiasts:

This is how POWs are supposed to be treated. Also, another data point in the mountain of data that the Russian military is poorly trained, poorly led, and poorly equipped.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

126Comments

  1. 1.

    Chetan Murthy

    I watched an interviiew with the guy in the last tweet.  He says near the end “it is my little dream to gain Ukrainian citizenship”.

    I would hope that UA has a plan to entice masses of these new conscripts to surrender ASAP — before they commit the inevitable war crimes — it would make great propaganda, help UA’s war effort, and be better for the surrendering soldiers, too.

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    Since, as we know, the russian mobilization is disproportionately hitting the Asian ethnic minorities, this is an interesting message from the former President and PM of Mongolia:

    The former PM and former President of Mongolia @elbegdorj with a message to the world.

    He says that Putin is using ethnic minorities as cannon fodder in Ukraine

    He calls on Buryat, Tuva & Kalmyk Mongols not to go & fight in Ukraine & says Mongolia will receive them if they flee pic.twitter.com/otAniyWgeW
    — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 23, 2022

  6. 6.

    justinb

    Update! Diagnosis! Five wonderful doctors across multiple states and many batteries of tests later, and while it’s not wonderful, at least we all have some idea of what’s probably wrong. Anybody ever heard of abdominal migraine? I hadn’t, and it sounded made up, and it’s rare, but it’s a thing, and here we are.

    Forward! I’m feeling more positive than I have in a long time. I haz a smile.

  11. 11.

    jackmac

    “I would not want to be holed up in Isengard…”

    It’s the Ents against the Orcs. And if you’re a Tolkien fan, you know how that one turns out!

    Adam, thanks for all you do. I look forward to your nighly reports and your comprehensive and clear-headed observations and analysis.

  12. 12.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    Dang, that Defense of Ukraine video is just perfection. It gets more and more amazing every day that russia really thought it could overrun this country and these people in a matter of days.

    The amount of donations that have been sent for Mykhailo’s recovery is incredible, and I hope it means that the worries about the world forgetting about the war are at least largely unfounded.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  16. 16.

    Spanky

    I know it’s in keeping with the orc/Russian meme, but it reminded me more of Burnham Wood coming to Dunsinane.

  17. 17.

    zhena gogolia

    I’m not going to post them, but I’ve now watched about a dozen different videos/video clips of recently mobilized/conscripted Russians at the in-processing centers or at the training sites they’re being sent to. Leaving aside the ones where everyone is falling down drunk, a lot of these videos look like they were filmed in homeless shelters.

    That’s what I thought!

  19. 19.

    Carlo Graziani

    Quoth Zelenskyy:

    Today I awarded the honorary award “For Courage and Bravery” to three of our brigades. The 1st separate tank Siversk brigade, the 40th separate artillery brigade, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade.

    I just find it amusing that Ukrainian “tank brigades” are now in the open, when we were wondering all summer where the hell all those T-72s were. Sorry, never mind me, I just giggle at the oddest things…

  21. 21.

    Mike in DC

    Slightly OT: There are still some wild rumors today about something big happening in China–lots of flight cancellations in Beijing, movements of military units towards the capital, Xi Xinping not seen in public for a while and rumors of his arrest–but no official clarifications, just smoke and rumor at the moment.  Adam, was wondering if you had heard anything?

  22. 22.

    cain

    I think what’s different Adam, is that women are leading this. They’ve had enough. I think when you add the rest of the crap this govt has done – their failures in the economy, dealing with climate change – and their dumb games with other countries. I think focusing on stuff like the hijab when people are having trouble making ends meet. I think they are done.

    I don’t know what it is going to look like – but I think once the women have decided, they are going to dig in and it’s going to be relentless.

  23. 23.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Mike in DC: FWIW Nathan Ruser is completely unconvinced that something is happening.  He’s been pretty reliable on UA, and is apparently a China scholar, so ….. [sure, YMMV]

    PS. There’s no evidence of a coup in China and no reason to even slightly think that there has been one. I can’t believe I even have to say this.
    Xi’s decade of intense political consolidation behind him can’t be overturned by a missed meeting or a few cancelled flights.
    — Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) September 23, 2022

  24. 24.

    Martin

    Seems to me the old idea of sending A-10s to Ukraine might make a lot more sense now. Russia’s not sending a million soldiers in tanks. It’s going to be trains and trucks. Seems like lots of bullets is goings to start beating a few missiles in the Russian version of They are Billions.

  26. 26.

    dmsilev

    The rusty AKs are not only par for the course, but actually in better shape than a lot of the equipment and material that the Kremlin is providing the troops:

    ‘Russia is running low on Kalashnikovs’ is not something I ever expected to read. Were all umpteen million of them sold off on the black market or something?

  27. 27.

    Carlo Graziani

    Also, G&T, I did see your response to my question on Yanukovych last night. I’ve been on a weird schedule that kept me away from a timely acknowledgment, but in case the one that I did post got drowned out in last night’s barfight: what you wrote makes complete sense. If Yanukovych had not had time to establish control over the govrrnment and security establishment, then the “missing” EuroMaidan crackdown/massacre is no longer a mystery. So thanks for taking the time and trouble.

  29. 29.

    dmsilev

    @Spanky: Via Wikipedia,

    Tolkien noted in a letter that he had created Ents in response to his “bitter disappointment and disgust from schooldays with the shabby use made in Shakespeare’s Macbeth of the coming of ‘Great Birnam Wood to high Dunsinane hill’: I longed to devise a setting in which the trees might really march to war”

  30. 30.

    Redshift

    @justinb: Huh. I get ocular migraines (only the visual symptoms, not the headaches, so I guess it makes sense you could only get the nausea-related symptoms.

    I’d imagine treatments for the symptoms would not have been very effective without that diagnosis. There’s a whole new class of more effective migraine medications in the past few years; hopefully they’ll work for you!

  32. 32.

    Redshift

    @Mike in DC: From what I’ve seen, the reports of flight cancellations were irresponsible reporting by Newsweek based solely on social media, and were easily disproven by checking publicly available flight tracking data. So I’m treating the whole thing as bogus unless anyone comes up with something solid.

  33. 33.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    I’m sure being given rusty assault rifles at basic will help with that morale problem /s

  35. 35.

    Tony G

    @Gin & Tonic: It’s my understanding that almost 20% of the citizens of the Russian Federation are not ethnic Russians.  I wonder how enthusiastic these non-Russians will be about being drafted and sent to bail out the  Russian Army in its invasion of another country?  Arming these non-Russians might not have the effect that Putin hopes that it will have.

  36. 36.

    Carlo Graziani

    @cain: The very depressing regularity of such affairs is exactly what Adam is alluding to: so long as there is a will to power by the governing faction, and control over the security forces, then continuity of the regime is always only a massacre away.

    What is always required for a popular revolution to succeed is defection by a substantial part of the security establishment to the revolutionaries. That is essentially always the only key question.

    So what we are waiting for here is to see whether the events that have caused revulsion in the hearts of so many common citizens and amplified and unified their existing grievances against the regime will have an analogous effect within the Revolutionary Guard and other police, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies.

    I don’t know enough to make any forecasts.

  38. 38.

    Tony G

    @Tony G: An acquaintance of mine emigrated to the U.S. about ten years ago from the Siberian city of Omsk.  He is an ethnic Russian, but he says that his home town is very distant, geographically and culturally, from cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

  39. 39.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:

    Dang, that Defense of Ukraine video is just perfection. It gets more and more amazing every day that russia really thought it could overrun this country and these people in a matter of days.

    It really is. I still remember Putin, at very beginning just before the invasion in an address, telling the people of Ukraine to, “put down your weapons and come home.” Didn’t quite work out that way, did it, Vladdie?

  40. 40.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Mike in DC: 

    There are still some wild rumors today about something big happening in China–lots of flight cancellations in Beijing

    I saw the same thing on DailyKos earlier today. flightradar24.com is showing PEK is still an active airport, with arriving and departing flights. I do not know if the traffic displayed is normal or reduced.

  41. 41.

    John Revolta

    @Tony G: Did you see the guns they’re being given, up in the OP? Doesn’t seem like that’s going to be a problem.

    We’re seeing the latest version of the old Russian joke: “They pretend to equip and train us, and we pretend to fight!”

  43. 43.

    Kent

    @dmsilev:‘Russia is running low on Kalashnikovs’ is not something I ever expected to read. Were all umpteen million of them sold off on the black market or something?

    They probably still have warehouses full of them.  They’ve just been sitting there for 30 years with no maintenance.  And yes, the good stuff was probably long stolen and sold off.

  44. 44.

    NutmegAgain

    It seems pretty twisted to me that while the Rushists have kidnapped, “filtrated”, or otherwise taken Ukrainian citizens over their border, against the peoples’ will*, they are now mobilizing and sending, or planning to send, between 300,000 – 1 million Russian citizens into Ukraine to most likely die. What the hell?

    (*no idea what a credible number is, at this point),

  46. 46.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mike in DC: The rumor appears to have been started in India. There’s nothing legit substantiating it. Is it possible? Yes. Probable? Maybe, but there’s no legitimate reporting.

    I have seen some reporting that Xi is quarantining post Shanghai conference because of covid concerns. This would make sense, but who knows.

  48. 48.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Tony G: 

    Arming these non-Russians might not have the effect that Putin hopes that it will have.

    The French had a similar problem when they fought their IndoChina war. Some of their Foreign Legion formations were made up of North Africans, some of which were captured. The Viet Minh taught them how to be revolutionaries.

  49. 49.

    cain

    @Carlo Graziani: I think the point here is not to have a revolution but to create change. The regime has to give in and get rid of certain things to keep power. I don’t know whether they want a democratic govt or a different govt. What they have they believe in untenable.

    I suspect it’s not revolution but to a call for negotiations.

  51. 51.

    HumboldtBlue

    @John Revolta:

    Hey, hey, hey, let’s slow down there bucko, what’s so bad about a Mosin-Nagant 1898 pattern bolt-action rifle? That’s sure to still remain effective and decisive on the modern battlefield, particularly when wielded by the excellent recruits currently being trained up to fight the glorious fight.

  58. 58.

    HumboldtBlue

    Adam, I’d like to register my frustration and annoyance at the daily homework assignment that is reading your posts.

    Detailed, relevant links and stories about the ongoing international conflicts that aren’t served up like mcnuggets is eminently elitist and insulting to flyover country and those of us too lazy to take the time to absorb some real world facts.

    Thanks, buddy, we thought it was all beer and college football on a Saturday night, but NO, Silverman is here with some more homework.

  62. 62.

    Yutsano

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: ​ It’s a classic Jewish mother rant! Which of course he would know about. Who could have possibly thought in that audience that eight years later that funny man would become one of the most significant leaders of the 21st century?

  63. 63.

    Urza

    @Adam L Silverman: I know its early days, and information coming out is minimal so far, but tomorrow could you do a deeper dive on whatevers happening in China?  You’ll have some idea of trusted sources.  Anything in China thats real is likely to have a significant impact on supply chains again as well as the stock market Monday morning.

  66. 66.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:

    Zelenskyy is a national treasure for sure!

    The whole, “we are one people/Ukraine is our little brother” is pretty fucked up given the all of the war crimes and destruction. More like an abusive family!

  67. 67.

    NutmegAgain

    @justinb: Holy cow!  I am a migraineuse of long standing, but I never heard of those. I have the “first really cold weather of the fall oh crap do I really need to notch the heat on?” type migraine myself. I wish you all the best-keep us posted.

  73. 73.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Chetan Murthy: ​
    I could get you some chickens and couple of nice perch?

    ETA: Well, one nice perch and one that a cat got at a little bit.

    ETAA:  Okay, the second one is mostly just a fish head.

    ETAAA:  I could get you some nice chickens and a well fed cat.

  74. 74.

    Urza

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): That is exactly what they do to Russians.  Maybe to a lesser extent the ethnic Russians, but generally speaking abusive is part of the countries nature since least the time when Genghis Khan rolled through.

  77. 77.

    Another Scott

    @Chetan Murthy: Made me look.  Didn’t find that, but did find this article on stablecoins [sic]:

    The UST peg began to break in the 9-May, where LUNA was trading around $60 (~49.5% off the $119 ATH). Over the next 36-hours, LUNA prices fell below $0.1, and the UST peg traded between extremes of $0.30 and $0.82. This put the protocol redemption mechanism into overdrive, as users both panicked, and arbitraged the exchange of 1 UST for $1 worth of LUNA, inflating the supply and depressing prices further.

    At the time of writing, LUNA is now trading for $0.0002 (down 99.9998% from ATH), and UST is stabilising around $0.1251, well below the desired $1 peg.

    The magnitude of LUNA supply inflation can be seen the chart below, where UST supply (green, RHS) is in linear scale, whilst LUNA supply (red, LHS) is in log scale. Over the course of one week, 7.5 Billion UST were redeemed (40% of supply), whilst the LUNA supply inflated from 343 Million, to over 6.53 Trillion, an annualised inflation rate of 99,263,840%.

    Gimme some of that action!!11ONE

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  81. 81.

    Ken

    @Another Scott: Ah, yes, stablecoins, for when you want to own a currency that is exactly the same as the US dollar — except instead of being backed by the US government*, it is backed by hashing algorithms being run on coal-fired Mongolian server farms.

    And that’s the elevator pitch being made by the people trying to sell it!

    * “The world’s largest insurance company with an army.” — Paul Krugman

  82. 82.

    Bill Arnold

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The rumor appears to have been started in India.

    India’s wild complexity (youth (both country and people), high population, cultural variation, capitalism) is daunting.
    A few years ago(?) I saw belligerent social media chatter talking up nuclear war with Pakistan, that looked like it could have been driven by a very minor trader or three manipulating the markets in hope of a few lakhs (a few K dollars/a few (100,000 Indian Rupees)) in gains. And the non-social Indian media are similarly unreliable.

  86. 86.

    Chetan Murthy

    whoa

    The only folks at this point who believe that Putin is suffering anything other than a devastating, catastrophic tactical and strategic defeat in Ukraine on the ground are always contrarian western populists and Russian state media news anchors (and they say what they’re told).
    — Boris Ryvkin (@BRyvkin) September 25, 2022

     

    And the parenthetical goes further. Top Kremlin propagandist Solovyov was an outspoken liberal and Kremlin skeptic in the late 90s and early 2000s. Dmitri Kiselyov who threatens western countries with nuclear armageddon these days was also very pro-western in the 90s and /
    — Boris Ryvkin (@BRyvkin) September 25, 2022

     

    lived in (and reported from) Ukraine for a few years when he wanted to do more serious journalism that was becoming impossible in Russia. And on it goes. They know what is going on, but are part of an information warfare effort on the home front and do their jobs. /
    — Boris Ryvkin (@BRyvkin) September 25, 2022

  88. 88.

    Carlo Graziani

    How this thread can go from full-on feces-throwing riot at the great ape house on one night to a laugh festival on the next is a never-ending source of wonder to me.

    You people are great.

  91. 91.

    Sally

    You can bet that the Republicans would love to run elections in the US exactly the same was as Ru is running their “referenda”.  Two soldiers, with not rusty ancient AK’s come to your door, with the paper ballot.  They ask you who/what you want to vote for (This nice christofascist with an R after his name, or this heap of trash, pinko, commie demonrat).  They fill the ballot in for you, and either wish you a good afternoon, or beat the daylights out of you.  It is a free country, comrade!

  93. 93.

    Bill Arnold

    Does anyone here know of a full transcript for that sermon by Patriarch Kirill?
    Putin’s Top Priest Tells Russians Not to Fear Death Amid Mobilization (ISABEL VAN BRUGEN ON 9/23/2022)

    “Go bravely to fulfill your military duty. And remember that if you lay down your life for your country, you will be with God in his kingdom, glory and eternal life,” he told a sermon at the Zachatyevsky Monastery in Moscow.

    Also would be interested in any writing (including his) on his theological musings. (Machine translation is OK.) The overt belligerence is interesting. (Have read wikipedia on him.)

  95. 95.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Seriously guys, Indian tabloids and Falun Gong associated media personalities (where the rumors ultimately originated) are not reliable sources of what is happening in China!

    There are no abnormal signs from the propaganda, censors, internal security or military. No heightened security presence. There are nothing unusual going on On Chinese social media, not even cryptic oblique references that might be quickly deleted. No private conversations speculating on what’s going on. There is in fact no massive cancellation of flights, trains and or long distance buses into & out of Beijing, at least no lore than usual that can be attributed to COVID restrictions, military maneuvers or weather. A flight map purportedly showing empty sky’s over the capital was a snapshot for 4 AM local time…

    Not a single reputable China scholar I am following is giving any credibility to the rumors.

  96. 96.

    livewyre

    @Ksmiami: How are you planning to help? Personally, I mean, not the General Ripper shtick. My approach is to follow the lead of Zelenskyy and not give in to fearful overreaction. He seems to know what he’s doing. Tastes may differ.

  97. 97.

    YY_Sima Qian

    It should also be noted that Xi disappeared for a few days after visiting Hong Kong earlier this year, too. Presumably for quarantine (or at least minimizing social contact) like all people returning to Mainland China.

  99. 99.

    Ksmiami

    @livewyre: sending money to the UA army and relief agencies- renting rooms in Ukraine thru Airbnb to get money to citizens, lobbying reps to be unrelenting in support of Ukraine…

  100. 100.

    livewyre

    @Ksmiami: Excellent! As long as it doesn’t involve urging direct and strategically counterproductive military intervention, we’re on the same side.

  101. 101.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab: By the way, one of the 1st (lagging) signs of a coup in China would be all the VPNs being cut & possibly internet services in general. While VPNs have been a bit shaky in the past couple of weeks, that is more likely linked to the sensitive time period leading up to the 20the Party Congress. For the few days surrounding the Party Congress, VPNs (except for those used by international corporations & academic institutions) could become virtually unusable.

    The CCP regime has emphasized for decades that the Party must command the gun & not the other way around, this after the aborted coup that Lin Biao’s clique planned against Mao Zedong during the Cultural Revolution &  CCP establishment’s (led by Deng) successful coup against the Gang of Four after Mao’s death, though the latter is perhaps more accurately described as suppressing a powerful but now rogue faction with the support of the military. Xi has also consolidated his control over both the PLA & the internal security apparatus, so it is difficult to envision how a military coup might work.

    It is not impossible that internal opposition to Xi in the CCP could somehow consolidate at some point and either overthrows or circumscribes his power via intra-party maneuvering. After all, during Xi’s ascension he faced a real challenged from Bo Xilai, who sought to overturn the planned leadership transition that had been decided by the collective leadership. Bo had support among some of the provincial leadership, elements of the central leadership, & significant parts of the internal security apparatus, & his maneuvering has sometimes been described as an attempted coup. However a coup driven by the PLA will not likely be the method that wrestles power from Xi. The CCP regime is not a military junta of a banana republic.

  104. 104.

    sab

    @YY_Sima Qian: ” The CCP regime is not a military junta of a banana republic”

    We Americans need to be reminded of that. China is a huge country with a fairly continuous government. Not always, but much more than the Europe that Americans tend to look to.

    ETA As an American and a democrat I admire ours much more, but steady good government is most always a good thing.

  106. 106.

    Geminid

    Iranian drones deployed by Russia have been reported by Ukrainian officials for a month now. After Ukrainian forces shot four heading towards Odesa the government put its foot down Friday and withdrew the Iranian ambassador’s acreditation. Iranian personnel are allowed to remain at their Kyiv embassy but in reduced numbers.

    Iran says it will respond appropriately regarding Ukraine’s diplomatic presence, and a spokesman said reports of Iranian drones over Ukraine resulted from “hype.”

  107. 107.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: This is going to be OT, on the subject Nathan Ruser, I would not say he is a China scholar. He is a good analyst of satellite imagery. I have followed his open source work on Ukraine in Twitter, & they are pretty good IMO.

    He works at the Australian Strategic Policies Institute, & made his reputation uncovering the large network of detention camps stood up in Xinjiang from 2016 – 2019 via commercially available satellite imagery. Other analysts at ASPI as well as Adrian Zenz then studied internal Chinese government document to corroborate the suspicion of a massive crackdown. Adrian Zenz also uncovered evidence in 2020 of a campaign to limit births among Uighur & other Turkic minorities, again citing internal Chinese government documents.

    The problem w/ Nathan Ruser is that he has not studied China professionally, visited China before, speak/read Chinese, & thus is unable to place the information he was trying to analyze in context. One example (of many) is that Nathan Ruser & the ASPI identified thousands of detention centers based on overhead satellite images, using tell-tale signs such wired/electrified fencing, watch towers, guard-houses at gates, etc., & based on that they estimated that more than 1M UIghurs were under detention in 2018. Well, anyone who has lived in China knows that just about every compound (residential, factory, schools, government facilities, etc.) has wired fencing (often electrified), guard houses at the gates, & often an unoccupied structure at the corners that might look like a watch tower from above, hangovers from problems w/ common thievery a decade or two ago. So, Nathan Ruser & the ASPI found a lot of real detention centers, both hastily converted & dedicated constructions, but also erroneously identified many others, & have been called out on this by people in China (including foreign tourists traveling in Xinjiang) visiting some of these geo-tagged sites. It is entirely possible, even probable, that > 1M members of Turkic minorities in Xinjiang have been detained in these “vocational training centers” one point or another, but highly unlikely that there were so many detained at any given time. The economic impact of so many people taken out of circulation (& the vast majority would be in the working age cohort) for an extended period of time could not have been easily hidden.

    ASPI (& Adrian Zenz) have been at the forefront promoting accusations of genocide & systemic program of forced labor targeting Uighurs, but they have relied upon selective reading (something obviously misreadings) of Chinese government documents, their scholarship is shot through w/ inaccuracies, inconsistencies, & speculations/assertions presented as evidence. Some of the documents they claimed to have clandestinely obtained appear to be genuine, others laughably questionable. Again, if they had deeper knowledge/experience w/ China they probably could have avoided many of the mistakes, if they wanted to.

    Then there is the problem of the organizations behind Nathan Ruser. ASPI is a government think tank founded by the Australian MOD, w/ additional funding from American/European weapons manufacturers, as well as governments quite unfriendly to China (the US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.). They have been prominent in steering Australian foreign policy toward a course hawkish confrontation against China under the previous Liberal governments, often by aligning w/ & amplifying policies coming out of the Trump Administration. The new Labor government is just beginning to modulate. As an aside, Adrian Zenz works for the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, which has designated all COVID-19 deaths in the world as “victims of Communism”.

    Together, they focused the West’s discourse on Xinjiang on genocide (while never clarifying whether they are claiming physical genocide or the more nebulous cultural genocide), without credible evidence, & IMHO to the detriment of focus on the undeniable real abuses committed by the CCP regime: the extralegal detention (even if temporary) of > 10% of the Turkic minority population & the physical & mental abuses that are inevitably found in such a hastily stood up & poorly supervised campaign, the continued imprisonment of at least 10Ks of for likely political reasons, the dystopian system of surveillance (which would probably incite revolt if tried in the more populous parts of China, at least beyond public health context), the cutting off of communication between members of the Turkic Chinese diaspora that the CCP regime deems suspicious & their families back in Xinjiang, the constraints on traveling abroad, the constraints on the new development of Uighur high culture (novels, poetry, songs, etc.). They could have made the credible case for the CCP regime committing crimes against humanity (which is what the recent UN Commission for Human Rights report raises), using evidence produced by the CCP regime itself. Instead, by exaggerating the case (which would not pass the smell or laugh test to anyone in China, especially those who have recently visited Xinjiang) they allowed the CCP regime to discredit all foreign criticism to the domestic population.

    Nathan Ruser, ASPI & Adrian Zenz deserve a lot of credit for exposing & highlighting the incredible extent of the CCP regime’s abuses in Xinjiang, at a time when it was not yet in much of popular or political consciousness in the West. However, by then stretching the case well beyond where the evidence could reasonably prove (IMHO), & by their own shoddy scholarship, they then did great disservice to the cause of helping the Turkic minorities there by allowing the CCP regime to discredit all foreign criticism. They have also promoted & enabled policies & sanctions that, while allowing Western governments to claim to have done something on Xinjiang, will likely make lives of the Turkic minorities there worse.

    To my knowledge, Nathan Ruser has never addressed issues w/ the mistakes in his analysis, problems associated w/ his affiliation, or acknowledged the limitations of his expertise.

    OTOH, this WaPo article does an excellent job IMO, to both assess the current situation in Xinjiang, & correctly framing the entire crackdown (the intense phase in 2016 – 2019, w/ continuing oppression) in context of CCP governance. I have quibbles here & there, but it is probably some of the best reporting on Xinjiang by Western MSM that I have seen.
    As crackdown eases, China’s Xinjiang faces long road to rehabilitation

    Probably a dead thread, so hopefully I have not derailed the discussion completely OT.

  113. 113.

    pluky

    @Shalimar: Thus had it always been with Eastern Orthodox caesero-papism; the Patriarch is installed, and serves, at the pleasure of the temporal sovereign.

  116. 116.

    Anonymous At Work

    I’m still mostly in shock at the state of the AKs.  An AK-47 is the model of a cheap, easy-to-maintain weapon for anyone anywhere to use without fear of jamming or not being able to repair parts in the field.
    I think we’re going to see a lot of White Flag Brigades, surrendering en masse.  I think this winter could turn into a humanitarian Charlie Foxtrot rapidly if UA is supposed to house, feed and clothe both itself and half the Russian forces.

  117. 117.

    Gin & Tonic

    @pluky: Patriarch Epiphanius of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine was elected by the synod of the church. He has a cordial relationship with the President of Ukraine, but no political affiliation. Your generalization is inaccurate.

  119. 119.

    Jinchi

    @Anonymous At Work: I think we’re going to see a lot of White Flag Brigades, surrendering en masse.

    Yeah. Any soldier given something that looks like a rifle but is too rusted through to function is basically being set up for slaughter.

  120. 120.

    way2blue

    This question is likely better posted under Adam’s Sunday update—but does anyone know of a charity that I could send thermal long underwear sets to—that would get to Ukraine soldiers in the field?

    A few months back I was fretting about the lack of ear protection in video of HIMARs being fired off.  And found an outfit that I could gift ear protection via Amazon to their NY location. And they then forwarded boxes of stuff to Ukraine.  Wondering if there’s a way to do something similar with winter gear…  Thanks.

  121. 121.

    Feathers

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for this. It is always so frustrating when people hype a genuine problem because they feel it’s not getting enough attention. Invariably it ends up backfiring with being able to pretend there was never a problem at all.

  122. 122.

    Chetan Murthy

    what a dick,  and this is what passes for a Good Russian.

    So Putin has lost 261K potential draftees. Closed borders enthusiasts would of course prefer them to be killing Ukrainians.
    — Leonid ХВ Ragozin (@leonidragozin) September 25, 2022

  124. 124.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Sebastian: Sebastian, I think you mentioned that you were a Fellla ?  Uh, I was just wondering: is there any sort of resource for people who would like to learn how to do what you do?  I mean, for people who aren’t …. good at online communication, snark, etc ?  Just curious.

  125. 125.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chetan Murthy: It seems like most of his tweets are all about all of this affects Russians.  Actions of other countries are always, always about how they affect Russians, whether they’re inside or outside Russia.  He’s “one of the good ones” but seems to be the living embodiment of the stereotype of Russians as incapable of seeing foreigners as fully human.

    Because Russia is on another planet and will suffer those catastrophic consequences alone https://t.co/JN5EPzf5xK
    — Leonid ХВ Ragozin (@leonidragozin) September 25, 2022

  126. 126.

    Andrya

    @pluky:   @Gin & Tonic:  Also, in 2018 the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, titular leader of the whole of Eastern Orthodoxy, made the Ukrainian Orthodox church autocephalous (i.e. no longer subject to Moscow).  Not much caesero-papism there. Since this happened after 2014, it’s hard to see this as anything other than a rebuke to putin and Kyrill.

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