Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The willow is too close to the house.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

The revolution will be supervised.

People are weird.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

The lights are all blinking red.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

Consistently wrong since 2002

T R E 4 5 O N

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

He really is that stupid.

You are here: Home / Music / Late Night Open Thread: Snippets From the ‘Incursion’

Late Night Open Thread: Snippets From the ‘Incursion’

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Late Night Open Thread: Snippets From the 'Incursion'

(John Deering via GoComic.com)

Rap is not my area, but this is actually kinda catchy:


Reader Interactions

109Comments

  2. 2.

    VOR

    This war of choice convinced Sweden and Finland to join NATO. And Germany is increasing military spending. Those events seem like strategic setbacks for Russia.

  3. 3.

    dr. luba

    This Twitter thread from last May I found enlightening; much of it has probably been discussed here before, especially the lack of any capacity by the Russian military to actually train/deal with so many conscripts (as opposed to the Soviets).

    Telling is what happened the last time a tsar decided to conscript hundreds of thousands and throw them into the meat grinder……let’s just say I wouldn’t mind a repetition.

    To sum up. Russia has the capacity to draft the enormous number of recruits via a mass mobilisation. It has no capacity to train them, provide them with required equipment or with officers’ leadership. Which means that a mass mobilisation would be a really dumb decision
    — Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) May 4, 2022

  4. 4.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Is anyone else getting nervous about the recent far-right victories in Sweden and Italy?

  5. 5.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    The flag post doesn’t include Finland and Sweden which are providing both military hardware and financial aid

  7. 7.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Are you going to be encouraged when Lula wins in Brazil?  They are their own countries with their own events and priorities, and you cannot project what happens there to what happens here. Or vice versa.

  9. 9.

    Anoniminous

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    I know nothing of Italy.

    In Sweden this has been building for some time.  The immigrant population has reached 14% of the total population and that’s about when to expect a nativist backlash.  But read their positions.   Swedish populist Conservatives are not what an American expects a Conservative Party to be.

  11. 11.

    Amir Khalid

    It starts with the man at the far end of the long, long table, of course, and his reckless hubris. The Russian military is now exposed as hollow; from the generals down to the privates, it has bungled every aspect of army-ing throughout this war. It looks like the mobilisation is also being bungled and is doomed to fail.

    This is the same military that the Russian Federation relies on in its adventures abroad, and in policing neighbouring countries and its own ethnic-minority republics. What effect will Russia’s loss of military credibility have on the situation in these places?

  14. 14.

    Chetan Murthy

    FAFO, RU military commissar

    Video of a Russian man opening fire and killing the military commandant in a draft centre in the city of Úst-Ilimsk in Irkutsk region. The military commandant was the head of the local draft committee. He has died, according to reports. pic.twitter.com/knnWNJxE9Y
    — Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) September 26, 2022

  15. 15.

    NotMax

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Government in Italy? Not to fret, there’ll be another one coming along any time now.

    Unsure if this statistic is entirely up to date but you get the idea.

    Since the end of World War II in 1945, Italy has had 69 governments, at an average of one every 1.11 years. Source

    As for Sweden, as others have said, “conservative” defines a different modus operandi than it does here. If nothing else, a solid tradition of practicality remains embedded, which tempers extremism in either direction.

  16. 16.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Anoniminous:

    Here’s what Chetan Murthy had to say about Italy’s Brothers of Italy Party:

     Two thoughts:

    1. Meloni is in a coalition with Berlusconi, right?  And Berlusconi, that guy’s in Putin’s pocket.
    2. Remember how Le Pen moved away from Putin as the election neared?  I wouldn’t assume Meloni is a safe anti-Putin type, simply b/c she’s Teh Fash, and right now, Putin is funding transnational Fascism everywhere.  For instance, she’s been palling around with Steve Bannon ( https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-meloni-italy-elections-steve-bannon-revolution-1746006 ) and that guy, he’s 100% DTF with Putin

    Another:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/09/giorgia-meloni-italy-election-fascism-mussolini/671515/

    Meloni’s enemies list is familiar: “LGBT lobbies” that are out to harm women and the family by destroying “gender identity”; George Soros, an “international speculator,” she has said, who finances global “mass immigration” that threatens a Great Replacement of white, native-born Italians. Meloni shows affinity for authoritarian strongmen: Like Marine Le Pen, until recently the leader of the National Rally party in France, Meloni has expressed support for Russian President Vladimir Putin—although she has muted that enthusiasm since his invasion of Ukraine.

  17. 17.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Anoniminous

    Here’s what Chetan Murthy below had to say about Italy’s Brothers of Italy Party:

    Two thoughts:

    Meloni is in a coalition with Berlusconi, right? And Berlusconi, that guy’s in Putin’s pocket.

    Remember how Le Pen moved away from Putin as the election neared? I wouldn’t assume Meloni is a safe anti-Putin type, simply b/c she’s Teh Fash, and right now, Putin is funding transnational Fascism everywhere. For instance, she’s been palling around with Steve Bannon ( https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-meloni-italy-elections-steve-bannon-revolution-1746006 ) and that guy, he’s 100% DTF with Putin

    Another:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/09/giorgia-meloni-italy-election-fascism-mussolini/671515/

    Meloni’s enemies list is familiar: “LGBT lobbies” that are out to harm women and the family by destroying “gender identity”; George Soros, an “international speculator,” she has said, who finances global “mass immigration” that threatens a Great Replacement of white, native-born Italians. Meloni shows affinity for authoritarian strongmen: Like Marine Le Pen, until recently the leader of the National Rally party in France, Meloni has expressed support for Russian President Vladimir Putin—although she has muted that enthusiasm since his invasion of Ukraine.

  18. 18.

    Anoniminous

    ​ Thing Americans don’t understand about Swedish culture is the profound cultural value of lagom. Swedish culture is actively suspicious of and battles excess. Excess in anything and that includes politics.​ 

  20. 20.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Anoniminous: Thank you: this is reassuring.  As is the fact that clearly Swedish people know who the near enemy is, and their minds are concentrated on that.

  22. 22.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Major Major Major Major:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    @Mike in NC:

    I’m concerned about the further erosion of western liberal democracy. That what happened in Hungary will happen elsewhere. Orban presented himself as a liberal and moderate, remember. Now he spouts unhinged anti-“race mixing” shit. Europe’s economy is likely not going to be doing well for several years, mainly due to energy shortages because of the cut-off from Russian natural gas.

    This has the potential to provide the opening the far-right needs.

    I honestly think a lot of you are being far too cavalier about this. Last year the voters of Virginia turned around and voted for the Republicans, who only 10 months earlier had orchestrated a coup right across the river to try to keep Donald Trump in office. And now trans children are facing the consequences for that decision.

    People knew, or should have known, what the GOP was about at that point. I’m pretty sure they had already started backing the stolen election BS

  23. 23.

    SectionH

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Uh, not really. [eta I don”t know from Sweden] in Italy 5whatevs is probably gonna go right, but yeah, it was being split pretty evenly a couple of hours ago. The media spin may be a lot more hysterical, I dunno. At least BBC (sorry Tony J) is still saying “on course to be”. The fact is that she may be but the popular vote is more split.  There are 9 – count them 9 – parties in this election. 4 RW and 4LW. Mind, I’m relying on Mr S who has a very long background in International Politics and economics, who lived in Italy for years. But I’m sure he can sort parties. The worry thing is that’s he’s truly an optimist about… everything.

  24. 24.

    Anoniminous

    @Chetan Murthy: ​
     

    If you had told me on Jan 1, 2022 on the Swedes would ask to join NATO in June of 2022 I’d have laughed myself silly and thought you’d been whiffing on the funny weed. Right now the Swedes know their enemy is Russia and are making moves to protect themselves.

  25. 25.

    ian

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    No.  The shitty thing about Democracy is that sometimes people you don’t like you win elections.  Everyone involved will make the best of it and move on.

    If the far right in the US or Brazil wins, they might move to undermine the rule of law and free elections.  The right in Sweden and Italy aren’t at that stage yet.

  32. 32.

    Calouste

    We’ll see how long Meloni is actually going to survive as PM. Misogyny is one of the base tenets of the extreme right, and I bet her coalition partners and men in her own party are already sharpening their knives. Yeah, LePen has been leading her extreme right party for a number of years, but she’s never head any actual power. Meloni is as far as I know going to be the first extreme right woman with actual governing power.

  33. 33.

    SectionH

    So what are the odds for Truss to survive as PM until Dec. 31st? I wouldn’t ask if I wanted to find online  betting, But I’m interested.

  36. 36.

    Chetan Murthy

    @SectionH: It seems absolutely bonkers what she’s doing, doesn’t it?  I mean, cutting taxes at a time of inflation and rising deficits; stopping all environmental regulation at a time when literally the rivers are open sewers; and on and on.  Just madness.  I can’t imagine how she thinks this can turn out well.

  37. 37.

    NotMax

    @

    Can’t help but wonder how much of the downward slope can be ascribed to wobbly confidence in Chuckie.

  39. 39.

    Chetan Murthy

    @NotMax: Who’s Chuckie ?  Sorry, not getting the reference.

    Right, Charles.  Dunno, I’d doubt it’s much, since he’s got no say in anything.  But who knows.

  41. 41.

    eclare

    @Chetan Murthy:   Seriously.  And her chancellor was interviewed over the weekend saying more tax cuts were coming.  Like the saying goes, when you’re in a hole, keep digging.

  42. 42.

    Chetan Murthy

    @eclare: I remind myself that the Cossacks work for the Czar.  Kwarteng works for Truss, so she approves of this.  As she does of her health minister slagging on the doctors and nurses of the NHS.  Etc.  Just madness.

    She’s gonna make people wistful for Lord Flobalob.

  43. 43.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @eclare:

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Moar tax cuts are not going to help inflation; that will actually worsen it. The main, classic, cause of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Taxes help remove that money. It’s one of the reasons I’m glad gas tax holidays never ended up happening here in the States. There was never a guarantee that oil companies would pass on the savings to consumers anyway

  45. 45.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @SectionH:

    She’s Sarah Palin without the brains

    Wow, and that’s really saying something. Is Truss really the best the Tories could dredge up? Whatever happened to men like John Major?

  47. 47.

    eclare

    @Chetan Murthy:   I also thought of BoJo when I read the continued awful economic news out of the UK this morning.  He now will no longer be the worst PM in recent history.

    So he had some wine parties…eh?  I imagine that sentiment will quickly take over.

  50. 50.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @eclare:

    Hmm, it seems you’re right. Only for 1 month though, October. A few other states have implemented them too. I thought it hadn’t caught on at all:

    In January, 2022, Florida governor Ron DeSantis proposed a $1 billion gas tax holiday to counter inflation. The proposed policy would have taken place between July 1, 2022 through November 30, 2022. The final legislation resulted instead in a one month gas tax holiday for October, 2022. Other states, including New York, Georgia, Connecticut and Maryland, have suspended state gasoline taxes in 2022.

    I’d be curious if these tax holidays actually worked and oil companies passed along the savings to consumers

  51. 51.

    NotMax

    @Chetan Murthy

    Long distance clairvoyance speculates it may be more a factor than people are willing to admit. Liz had come to be the personification of consistency and stability, qualities which act as a balm on the scepter’d isle.

  53. 53.

    opiejeanne

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The consumer pays the tax at the pump. It doesn’t really affect the gas companies’ bottom line, other than possibly letting them sell more gasoline.

     

    @eclare: For that to work they’d have to raise the prices of gasoline. The consumer pays the tax at the pump in my state. The gasoline companies never handle that money.

    Unless the tax we’re talking about is something applied to Chevron et al before it gets to the pump.

  55. 55.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @opiejeanne:

    Really? I thought it was one of Nancy Pelosi’s main arguments against a federal gas tax holiday that oil companies would likely not pass any savings to consumers in the form of lower gas prices?

  56. 56.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @opiejeanne:

    From Wiki, on the 2008 proposal for suspending the federal excise tax on gasoline:

    The proposal met criticism from a wide array of news sources, politicians, the vast majority of economists, and the Bush administration.

    Economic theory is very clear that the incidence of a consumption tax (who is expected to pay the tax) is inconsequential. Even if it were to lower the cost paid by the consumer, it would just result in a spike in demand during the period it was in effect with rising prices in response.

    Barack Obama was perhaps the most visibly vocal critic of the measure. He and other critics of the proposal have exclaimed that the holiday would be nothing more than a “short-term, quick-fix” that would not solve the nation’s current and long term problems of high oil prices and foreign oil dependency. Critics have nearly unanimously denounced the scheme as nothing more than pandering for votes in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.

    Since fuel tax is collected from producers and given the fixed supply and high demand for gasoline, it has been considered unlikely that producers would pass that savings on to consumers at the pump. Furthermore, State highway officials claimed the move could eliminate nearly 300,000 jobs over the summer months due to nearly $9 billion in lost revenue that would be incurred if some other source of revenue is not found. Hillary Clinton proposed levying a new tax on oil company profits in order to make up for it. However, both the Clinton and McCain proposals would most likely never be passed due to the overwhelming opposition of congressional leaders.

  57. 57.

    NotMax

    @eclare

    Hawaii double dips. Not only is there a state tax included in the at the pump price, the 4% excise tax on the gross amount of all transactions is also added on top of that, so in effect the first tax is taxed again.

    Haven’t checked exclusions on the 4% state excise tax (retailers can charge 4.16% to “make up” for their paying out 4% on gross income to the state) in quite a while. Last time I was aware of exclusions – the excise tax applies to everything whenever money changes hands, including food and rent – the primary ones were no tax on sales of newspapers, on federal payments and, curiously, on prosthetic limbs.

    Some studies have postulated the all-encompassing 4% excise tax would translate to a more traditionally applied sales tax of 14%.

  58. 58.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @NotMax:

    Does the tax on rent payments apply to the landlord end only or the renter too? Are groceries taxed in Hawaii?

  59. 59.

    eclare

    @NotMax:   That would be a really high sales tax rate.

    TN has a high sales tax rate because it does not have an income tax, but even then the sales tax for Memphis, including local, is 9.975%.

  61. 61.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    So wait, the sales taxes paid at the pump are different from the excise taxes levied on manufacturers, right? Were the 2022 gas tax holidays and proposals based on suspending the gas sales taxes or the excise taxes?

  62. 62.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @NotMax:

    Oh, okay, thanks. I’m not sure if rent is taxed here in Ohio, but most food in grocery stores are not taxed here. Things like soda are and of course alcohol, but not food

  63. 63.

    Central Planning

    @eclare: while sitting in a hotel lobby in Torquay, UK on Saturday, I saw the news about the UK’s plans to lower taxes to increase revenues. They were all in. They “might” have to run deficits and cut social programs though.

    Naturally, the big income people will get the biggest tax breaks. Clearly they didn’t do any research into how well trickle-down worked for us in the states

  66. 66.

    Tony Jay

    @Central Planning:

      Clearly they didn’t do any research into how well trickle-down worked for us in the states

    They did, y’know. Lots of it. Kwarteng (Truss’ Chancellor and chief gibbering fuckwit) was over in the U.S. recently having secret meetings with secret advisors that the British News Media are steadfastly uninterested in investigating.

    They know exactly what they’re doing. They call it ‘stimulating growth’, but of course by that they mean stimulating growth in the bank accounts of bankers, hedge-funds, large corporations and anyone else who’ll give them all well-paid executive directorships once they’ve finished asset-stripping the U.K.

    Meanwhile NuNew Labour are forcing conference delegates to sing God Save The King and doubling down on expelling as many  dirty stinking Lefties as possible.

    Priorities. Everyone has them.

  68. 68.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Tony Jay:

    Wanted to know, Tony Jay, what your opinion on John Major was as a PM? I was reading his Wikipedia page and found some interesting tidbits related to New Labor:

    In academic circles Major’s legacy has generally been better received. Mark Stuart, writing in 2017, stated that Major is “the best ex-Prime Minister we have ever had”, praising him for initiating the Northern Ireland peace process, peacefully handing Hong Kong back to China, creating the National Lottery and leaving a sound economy to Labour in 1997. Dennis Kavanagh likewise states that Major did relatively well considering the unbridgeable divides that existed in the Conservative Party in the 1990s, chiefly over Europe, whilst also delivering economic growth, a more user-focused public sector and the basis of peace settlement in Northern Ireland. He also notes that Major’s unexpected 1992 election victory effectively sealed in the Thatcher-era reforms and forced the Labour Party to ditch most of its more socialist-tinged policies, thereby permanently shifting the British political landscape to the centre ground. Anthony Seldon largely agrees with this assessment, adding that Major’s deep dislike of discrimination contributed to the continuing decline in racism and homophobia in British society, and that his proactive foreign policy stance maintained Britain’s influence in the world at a time of profound global change.

    Also:

    His task became even more difficult after the election of the modernist and highly media-savvy Tony Blair as Labour leader in July 1994, who mercilessly exploited Conservative divisions whilst shifting Labour to the centre, thus making it much more electable.

    I know you don’t like Blair or NuLabor as you put it, but it seems according to those passages I quoted above that Blairism was inevitable and was needed so Labor could be electable again in the wake of Conservative victories from the Thatcher era

  69. 69.

    SectionH

    @Chetan Murthy: Sorry “you” was not you. It was UK.why should the pound not = USD? .

    BLOODY HELL, the Euro is too?” Or close enough ?  Shit. I just looked.

    We really really seriously desperately need to support  Democrats right now .They are counting on us, ffs.

  70. 70.

    Central Planning

    @Tony Jay: Yup. I will say the British decisions since Brexit have really made my daughter’s education much more affordable. Last year the exchange rate was 1.37 USD TO pound. Now it is $1.11.

    ETA – I’m told it’s now like $1.03

  72. 72.

    Splitting Image

    @NotMax:

    Where’s Sir Humphrey Appleby when they need him?

    Canonically, he passed away in St. Dympna’s Hospital for the Elderly Deranged. Advancing years, “without in any way impairing his verbal fluency, disengaged the operation of his mind from the content of his speech.”

    An alternate theory is that he became a speechwriter for Donald Trump.

  73. 73.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    ‘Blairism’ is arguably the author of Brexit and the collapse of significant working class support for social democracy (Labour Party) policies. Just like Clintonism in the US.

    While I am sick of the term, for want of a better word, ‘neo liberalism’ has managed to imperil democracy on three continents.

    Time to reimagine a more vigorous and vital left, unafraid of both social and economic radicalism. The alternative is a slide into increasing authoritarianism and war.

    I am second to none in my furious hatred of Putinism and all it represents, but it’s relative success in various polities in relation to propaganda and disinformation owes a great deal to the insecurity and political rootlessness of large swathes of the western working class.

    It is true that the real social base of much of trumpism ( and it’s imitations elsewhere) is the well off lumpen bourgeoisie, but while ever the new and reshaped by neo liberalism working class remains unorganised and neglected by soi disant  liberals, democracy is in danger.

    It remains to be seen whether social democratic parties are able to rise to the occasion or whether they are focussed on fighting yesterdays wars by singing God Save the King at Party conferences, or sending senior leaders like Pelosi to every goddamned hot spot over the world, like Taiwan. The old Cold War leadership in the Dem party needs to go, now. And Starmer needs to put on his big boy pants and take the fight to those who impose zero hours contracts and insist that the state subsidise zero living wages.

  74. 74.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: Absolutely right

    While I am sick of the term, for want of a better word, ‘neo liberalism’ has managed to imperil democracy on three continents.

    Only 3?

  76. 76.

    Baud

    @Aussie Sheila:

    The old Cold War leadership in the Dem party needs to go, now.

     
    There are decent arguments for having younger leaders, but none are that are currently leaders are doing badly or that we can expect younger leaders to do better on the protect democracy front. YMMV.

  79. 79.

    Baud

    @eclare:

    I think House leadership is expected to step down after the midterms.  I don’t see Schumer going anywhere, and Biden isn’t resigning unless he develops a health issue.

  80. 80.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I am familiar with working class movements in my own country, and by reading and internet connection with like movements in the US and UK. I am sure that the same dynamics are creating movement and resistance elsewhere but I am less familiar and sure about their trajectories. I was a delegate to an international labour movement conference 15 years ago, and what was interesting and depressing, was how similar and how powerless the various representatives were in reality, no matter how much bloviation occurred.

    I am very sure and certain about the class and social dynamics in the polity in which I live and act, and reasonably cognisant about the UK and US, having irl connections to actors in those polities.
    Outside of this, I am less certain, although I do believe that the working class, in the last instance, will determine the level and extent of the surplus value extraction- after a long time. In the meantime, venues and means for democratic action, in the workplace and in the streets is being shut down everywhere, including in the ‘western democracies’. Anyone who’s not alive to the current dynamics is sleep walking into disaster.

  81. 81.

    ColoradoGuy

    What stuns me is the decade-over-decade economic mismanagement in the UK. The current policy isn’t even economics … it’s Zombie cargo-cult Thatcher/Reagan policy, Laffer Curve and all.

    The bleeding wound is Brexit; as long as Britain remains a small island economically isolated from the world’s largest trading bloc, it will remain a poor place to invest. Tax policy has little to no influence on investing decisions; those are driven by considerations of risk and reward. And the UK right now, compared to other countries, looks both medium-to-high risk and low reward. The steady decline in the pound since Brexit reflects that.

  82. 82.

    Aussie Sheila

    @ColoradoGuy:

    Exactly. The dreadful past relived as farce. Zombie Thatcherism. In the US the past is relived as an imaginary FDR ism domestically, matched with Reaganism internationally. All of it is dreamworks nonesense.

    The success of the international right wing needs to be squarely faced. Fascism represents the weakness of the left as much as the strength of the right. In the absence of democratic organisation and mobilisation of the working class, we are looking at democratic erosion everywhere.  The post ww2 working class has been destroyed and restructured over two generations.
    So called ‘liberal’ institutions need to get a clue and fast.

    Italy has been a harbinger in the past, and may well point to our future. It is a disgrace and terrible that the birthplace of European fascism is once more so politically feeble that it arises again. I am not optimistic about the response of our new oligarchic overlords to this at all. I just pray and hope that an old and centrist US president can hang on for the next six years, while the rest of the social democratic world gets its shit together.

  83. 83.

    Jinchi

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): ​
      It’s one of the reasons I’m glad gas tax holidays never ended up happening here in the States.

    I’m glad that never happened either, especially considering the price of gas dropped dramatically after Biden originally suggested it. If he had passed the gas tax holiday, we’d be learning entirely the wrong lesson from it.

  84. 84.

    Jinchi

    @Baud: ​
      I think House leadership is expected to step down after the midterms.

    I remember talk of that before the last election, but nothing about it since. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. Pledges to step down from leadership after a set date are pretty regularly forgotten when that date finally rolls around.

  85. 85.

    Geminid

    @eclare: I suspect that Hakeem Jeffries (50), Katherine Clark (59), and Pete Aguilar (42) will win caucus elections for the top three spots if Speaker Pelosi, Hoyer, and Clyburn step down after the midterms.

    They currently hold the second three senior spots in leadership. Jeffries (NY) is Caucus Chairman, Rice (MA) is Assistant Speaker, and Aguilar (CA) is Caucus Vice Chair. Their elections will probably be contested, especially in the media, but I think those three will come out on top. The incoming caucus members will hold the elections between the midterms and Thanksgiving.

  86. 86.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Aussie Sheila: Biden is the most pro-organized-labor US President since FDR and possibly ever. If the yardstick is the interests of the working class, we haven’t done better here. The question is whether that actually translates to political gains.

  87. 87.

    Tony G

    “Two weeks of training” for the Russian draftees?  Jesus.  I thought they’d at least get a few months of training before being sent into the meat grinder.  Does Putin have enough “loyal” security forces to use violence to stamp out the inevitable resistance to this?

  89. 89.

    Geminid

    @Jinchi: I don’t think that any pledges have been made. I think the top three will step aside, though, after the midterms whether the Democrats keep their House majority or not. They can see what we see: it’s time for younger leadership, especially for the two years leading up to what will be a decisive election in 2024.

  90. 90.

    Princess

    @Major Major Major Major: Yeah, for instance the US shares a border with a polity consistently governed by ethno-national social democrats and I bet most people in here have no idea and couldn’t name it. The dirty secret of social democracy is that it’s an easier sell in very homogenous places.

  91. 91.

    lowtechcyclist

    @dr. luba:

    Telling is what happened the last time a tsar decided to conscript hundreds of thousands and throw them into the meat grinder……let’s just say I wouldn’t mind a repetition.

    I would. Putin’s using this ‘mobilization’ as a tool of ethnic cleansing, basically treating the more far-flung regions of Russia as colonies whose natives he wants exterminated.

    Genocide is evil, no matter who the victims are.  I just hope that the draftees have the sense to surrender quickly once they’re near enough to the front lines to do so.

  92. 92.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Princess:

    If you think either Australia or Canada are ethnically homogeneous, you need to get out more. In Australia over 40% of households have at least one member born overseas. Both countries make the US look like ‘Leave it to Beaver’ country. The claim that social democracy is only possible in ‘ethnically homogeneous’ polities, is an objectively fascist position. It’s garbage.

  94. 94.

    Tony Jay

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Sorry, I’m not ignoring your question, I’ve just been collossally snowed under all morning at work and I’ve just remembered that I’ve got to complete a pointless training course in the next 45 minutes, because why not?

    Also, what Aussie Sheila said.

  96. 96.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Aussie Sheila: My guess was Princess was talking specifically about Quebec. But Quebec’s ethnonationalism is a different case since it’s hardly a homogeneous society; it’s more an entire society that perceives itself as an embattled minority, whose internal majority is constantly under cultural attack from Canada’s majority (and the United States as well, but mostly Canada), and that’s where the ethnonationalistic feelings arise. This creates further friction when dealing with Quebec’s own minorities. But I think it has relatively little to do with social-democratic politics and more with the specifics of Quebec’s situation.

  97. 97.

    Brachiator

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Moar tax cuts are not going to help inflation; that will actually worsen it. The main, classic, cause of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.

    Coming very late to the thread, but will leave this comment anyway.

    Conventional wisdom cites this as a cause of inflation, but it is insufficient. Inflation was low during the pandemic even though supply lines were disrupted. There is no evidence of huge shortages in the economy, so how can too much money be chasing too few goods?

    Some economists assume or imply that the most efficient economy is one in which a good chunk of the population has barely enough money to survive, but where profits are strong.

    There is much wrong with that picture.

  98. 98.

    Brachiator

    @Matt McIrvin:

    My guess was Princess was talking specifically about Quebec. But Quebec’s ethnonationalism is a different case since it’s hardly a homogeneous society; it’s more an entire society that perceives itself as an embattled minority, whose internal majority is constantly under cultural attack from Canada’s majority (and the United States as well, but mostly Canada), and that’s where the ethnonationalistic feelings arise.

    I admit that I still don’t know a lot about the Quebec independence movement.  But I used to have some reflexive sympathy until I kept seeing what big assholes some of these people were with respect to the rights of indigenous people. Some seemed blind even to the existence of Native people.

  99. 99.

    Ken

    shipping russians who oppose the russian government to countries who *also* oppose the russian government and who are happy to help them undermine the russian government is a time-honored russian tradition

    The Germans also did a pretty good job of it in 1917 with the train carrying Lenin and his cohorts, though long-term it didn’t work out well for Germany or anyone else.

  101. 101.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Brachiator: While a lot of businesses were actually shut down and people were staying at home, unemployment was temporarily extremely high–it was a sort of temporary, externally-driven depression. That’s not “too much money chasing too few goods”. Inflation started to rise and we had transient shortages once people got back to work again but supply chains were still messed up.

  102. 102.

    Geminid

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The Wikipedia entry on the recent Swedish election is worth checking out. The “right” party that increased its share of MPs (but not by that much) does not seem “far right.”

    I found the entry interesting because I learned more about the several largest parties, and the many small ones. I did not know that Sweden had a “Nuance Party.” They did not win an MP but finished ahead of six others.

  103. 103.

    Matt McIrvin

    …Anyway. I would not say that social democracy is only possible in a homogeneous society. At least, I hope it isn’t. I would say that racism is a beast and that, faced with an influx of people who are different, or a movement to protect the rights of people who are different and are already there, many societies have a powerful faction who would rather tear down social democracy than share it.

    The United States went through this crisis from about 1964 through the 1980s. It was exacerbated by other things that were going on at the time (the Vietnam War, the oil shocks, high inflation, an intractable crime wave) that made it seem like postwar liberalism was a failed god. Other countries’ experience probably won’t be exactly like ours and they might handle it better. But you can see some of the same reaction happening.

  104. 104.

    Brachiator

    @Matt McIrvin:

    Inflation started to rise and we had transient shortages once people got back to work again but supply chains were still messed up.

    I don’t think that the transient shortages were enough to spur inflation. And everyone ignores the elephant in the room, businesses raising prices to make up for revenue lost during the pandemic. Food prices continue to rise and much of this may be related to increased fuel costs.

    I do not see a massive amount of money chasing too few goods. A notable exception is the auto industry, where supply chain issues affected truck and auto production.

  105. 105.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Brachiator: Jason Furman (Obama admin economist) is a good twitter follow on inflation stuff. Transient inflation is the majority of the headline number right now, mostly Putin-inflicted, but core is becoming very troubling and the money supply is likely a big component, and this is stickier.

  106. 106.

    dr. luba

    @lowtechcyclist: I was referring to the fact that the troops didn’t go to the front to be slaughtered–they rebelled, overthrew the tsar, and thus ended that war…..which was in the link.  An interesting bit of history.

    Putin is committing genocide, both in Ukraine and in the non-white parts of the RF. And the ethic Russians don’t give a damn about the war and atrocities…….until it was their asses on the line, too.  But that was not what my comment was about.

  107. 107.

    Miss Bee

    @NotMax: I lived in Memphis for 18 years. I Never understand why there wasn’t an income tax. People could easily evade sales tax if they wanted to make the effort.  Most of the population lives no farther than 40 miles from one or more of the 8 states that border Tennessee.

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