As I suggested last night, the storm track shifted way south over night. When I went to bed the 11 PM update had it coming in over St. Pete Beach, over the top of St. Pete into Clearwater than into the Pinellas County part of Tampa Bay, out over the top of the bay, then right over my house. The overnight update had moved it to landfall just north of Bradenton then SW to NE over the Hillsborough County part of Tampa Bay, right over MacDill AFB, then through SE and east Tampa and into Polk County. Both of these tracks were worst case scenarios. We’re talking the hurricane causing a 13 foot storm surge at the top of Tampa Bay – think hurricane created tsunami! The 11 AM update moved landfall about 45 miles south just below Sarasota and just above Venice. And the 5 PM update moved it either farther south. And the track completely misses Hillsborough and Pinellas counties as it goes east of us. Good for those of us in the Tampa Bay area, not good for people in the Port Charlotte area!!!! Unless it the track moves way south over night, which is still possible, Port Charlotte and the barrier islands around it are going to get the storm surge that everyone was worried Tampa Bay would get.
If you’re in an evac zone in the greater Port Charlotte area, GET TO HIGHER GROUND NOW!!!!!!
Before anyone asks, we’re all set here. Without the storm surge concern, we’ll be sitting tight. The house is hurricane prepped. We’ve got plenty of food. The brand new generator is all ready to go if needed. I’ve got plenty of fuel for it. We’ve got plenty of bottled water left over from Irma in 2017, let alone the subsequent four hurricane seasons. My combat field medic kit is fully stocked. I’ve got enough water bricks to fill up another 50 gallons of water if need be. We’re all set. But those in the immediate path need to get out ASAP because the forecasting had the storm going north of you and now your evacuation window is small and growing smaller.
And on to tonight’s update.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address to the UN from earlier today. The video is below, English transcript after the jump:
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the meeting of the UN Security Council, convened at the initiative of Ukraine, in a videoconference format and called on the international community to respond decisively to Russia’s violation of international law and order.
During the speech, the Head of State drew the attention of the meeting participants to the fact that Russia already violates the rules of the world, despises the UN Charter, and it is only a matter of time before it destroys this last international institution that can still act.
“I urge you to act now. Anyone in the world can now name hundreds of examples of how Russia violates the international legal order and destroys the body of international law. It constantly provokes escalation and constantly responds to any proposals for talks with new brutality on the battlefield, even greater crises and threats to Ukraine and the world. And these are obvious things,” said the President.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that among the violations committed by Russia are ignoring the IAEA’s call for the immediate de-occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, nuclear blackmail, the announcement of mobilization, which first of all affects the indigenous peoples, the holding of a so-called referendum in the occupied territory of Ukraine, as well as the attempt of annexation of seized Ukrainian territories.
According to the President, there is only one way to stop all this. First of all, a complete isolation of Russia in response to what it is doing is needed.
“A state that is implementing a policy of genocide right now, keeping the world one step away from a radiation disaster, and at the same time threatening nuclear strikes cannot remain a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power. Russia must be excluded from all international organizations. If such exclusion is complicated by the procedure, its participation must be suspended,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted.
In addition, he believes new tough global sanctions against the Russian Federation are needed. It is also important to continue supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia.
“It is in Ukraine and in this war that not only our independence is being defended, not only the right to life for our people, but also international law as such. Ukraine must receive all the necessary defense and financial aid so that the aggressor loses,” the Head of State emphasized.
The President stressed that Ukraine must receive clear and legally binding guarantees of collective security – it is the independence of our country that is of such fundamental importance for many elements of global security, so the world needs a corresponding security architecture.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized: “Russia’s recognition of these sham referenda as allegedly normal, implementation of the so-called “Crimean scenario” and another attempt to annex the territory of Ukraine will mean that there is nothing to talk about with this President of Russia. Annexation is the kind of move that pits him alone against the whole of humanity. Such a clear signal is now needed from every country in the world.”
He urged the members of the UN Security Council not to delay the proposed actions, as a clear signal is now needed from every country in the world.
Brig. Gen. Ryder, the DOD Spokesperson, held an on the record briefing today. Transcript with Q&A below:
BRIGADIER GENERAL PAT RYDER: Good afternoon, everybody. A few items to pass along, and then we’ll get right to your questions.
So tomorrow, Secretary Austin will depart to California and Hawaii, and in California, he’ll meet with sailors and Marines at Naval Base Point Loma and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, respectively. While in Hawaii, he’ll meet with several of our key Indo-Pacific allies, to include his counterparts from the Philippines, Japan and Australia to discuss our shared commitment to preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific. Secretary Austin will also meet with Rear Admiral John Wade, who leads the Joint Task Force Red Hill, to receive an update on the effort to safely and expeditiously defuel the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility.
In addition, this afternoon, Secretary Austin will welcome His Excellency David Kabua, president of the Republic of Marshall Islands, for a meeting on the U.S.-Marshall Islands strategic and security relationship. The secretary looks forward to the discussion, after which we’ll provide a readout.
Separately, the department continues to watch closely as Florida prepares for the arrival of Hurricane Ian, an extremely dangerous storm that’s expected to bring heavy rain, wind and storm surge to the state’s west coast. As of this morning, the Florida National Guard has more than 3,200 soldiers and airmen on state active duty, with another 1,800-plus in the pipeline. Florida has pre-positioned Guard soldiers, airmen and equipment at bases and armories around the state in preparation for deploying them to areas impacted by the storm. These Guardsmen will provide route clearing, search-and-rescue teams to support flood control and security. Aviation assets like helicopters are also on standby to assist as required.
Additionally, five neighboring states are prepared to make an additional 2,000-plus Guardsmen available, should the need arise. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, is the lead federal agency on this response, and the Department of Defense remains in close communication and coordination with FEMA as Ian’s landfall becomes imminent.
In preparation for the storm, the DOD has approved Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, Moody Air Force Base, Georgia, Warner Robins Air Force Base, Georgia, and Marine Corps Logistics Base Albany, also in Georgia, as incident support base federal staging areas. For questions concerning individual DOD bases I’d refer you to the individual services, who can provide you with the most up-to-date information about their personnel and their efforts.
Finally, later today, the department will release our latest report on civilian casualties in connection with the United States military operations in 2021. This report is released annually by the department, and this is the fifth year of its release. As you know, the DOD is committed to improving our approach to mitigating and responding to civilian harm, and on August 25th this year, the secretary released the Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan, which lays out a series of actions DOD will implement to mitigate and respond to civilian harm. The protection of innocent civilians in the conduct of operations remains vital to the ultimate success of our operations, and is a significant strategic and moral imperative. This report will be posted to the defense.gov website today.
And with that, I’m happy to take your questions. We’ll go ahead and start with Lita. Yes, ma’am?
Q: Thanks, Pat. A couple just quick follow-ups. Last week, you said you were going to check back on whether any of either the PDA, USAI — any of the funding associated with Ukraine would expire at the end of this fiscal year. Do you have an answer to that yet? And…
GEN. RYDER: Sure.
Q: I’ll give you, if you can — OK.
GEN. RYDER: So what I would say is as I understand it, so the — the USAI money, as we talked about, is two-year money, so — and that is an appropriation so that — that would not be affected. The PDA money is, as I understand it, an authorization, which means that authorization is good until the end of the fiscal year. I would highlight that it’s not the end of the fiscal year yet, so there’s still time, potentially, to — to employ that authorization. Should we come to the end of the fiscal year, as you know, the administration has asked for supplemental funding, and so essentially what we would look to do is use that new authorization to purchase PDA, should we go into a — a separate fiscal year.
Q: So just a couple other things. And do you know the exact amount that you think will expire? I mean, you’ve got literally just a couple of days.
GEN. RYDER: Yeah.
Q: And then I’ll…
GEN. RYDER: Sure. So right now, we have $2.275 billion until September 30.
Q: And then on Ukraine, two things: Have you seen any change or any movement by Russia to ready their nuclear forces in any way? I know that this is a repetitive question, but just to ask it again. And have you seen any shifts in Russian force posture overall as these annexations votes start to get released? And anything about any more troops coming in, any effort to shore up areas — anything like that?
GEN. RYDER: Sure. So broadly speaking, you know, as — as we’ve said, we obviously take these threats seriously. But at this stage, we’ve not seen anything that would cause us to adjust our own nuclear posture at this time. And as — and as we’ve said previously, our focus continues to remain on supporting Ukraine in their fight and working closely with our allies and partners.
In terms of Russian force posture, broadly speaking, without getting into a detailed operational update, no, no major shifts other than we continue to see, particularly in the Donbas region, the Russians’ attempt to conduct offensive operations in — in that area, with Ukraine successfully holding the line.
Q: I want to go back to the nuke question first. Are you — can you say categorically that the United States has not seen any movement by tactical nuclear Russian military units that would cause alarm?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks, Tony. So I don’t want to get into intelligence specifically, other than to again just say that we’ve seen nothing that would indicate that we need to change our posture.
Q: Shifting gears to the NASAM — on Sunday, there was a great deal of international confusion about whether the United States had delivered NASAM systems to Ukraine. This is based on a faulty Face The Nation transcript, that they later corrected, but it caused a tither throughout the world. Can you give us a reality check here? When will the first NASAMS actually be delivered? Won’t it take about two years from the August 26th contract date?
GEN. RYDER: So — and I briefed this a couple weeks ago — yep, absolutely — so just to clarify, the U.S. has not delivered NASAMS to Ukraine at this stage. We expect the first two to be delivered within the next two months or so.
Q: Two months?
GEN. RYDER: Two months or so, right. That’ll be from tranche three. And then the remaining six that were part of the USAI are expected to be delivered in the future. I don’t have a date to provide but those will be longer term.
Q: May I ask — because the contract, when it came out in August, said it would be completed by August of 2024, implying two years.
GEN. RYDER: Again, I think there’s — nothing’s changed. I think it’s two different tranches of NASAMS that we’re talking about here. So we can get you the details, but again, the first two are expected to be provided within the next two months or so.
Q: Are they going to come from U.S. stocks, from the…
GEN. RYDER: No, these are the ones produced by industry, as I understand it. OK.
Yes, sir?
Q: On the civilian casualty report, obviously I haven’t seen it, could you give us kind of the broad outlines of that report? I’m assuming the numbers must be relatively low cause there’s not much happening abroad.
But also, I’m wondering if some of the changes that we’ve seen recently on trying to reduce civilian casualties, is that going to be reflected in this report? And how should we view that?
GEN. RYDER: Sure. No, I appreciate the question. What I would ask you to do is download the report, take a look at it. Certainly, again, after this briefing, we can get that to you and then be happy to entertain a more detailed discussion.
Given the fact that — you know, the scope of the work, I don’t want to necessarily provide you with half information here from the podium. So we’ll make sure to get that for you right after this. Thank you.
Let me go to Carla and then I’ll go to Kasim.
Q: Thanks. On Ukraine, concerning the Nord Stream pipeline, there leaking. European officials are saying it was sabotage, pointing to Russia. Ukraine has said it is — it was Russian sabotage. Russia is pointing to the United States. What can the Pentagon say about that? Do you have any evidence that vessels in the Baltic Sea could have been responsible for this?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks, Carla. Seen the press reporting on this at this point but I don’t have any information on it to provide. We’ll continue to monitor closely obviously. Thank you.
Lara?
Q: Sure. I had two questions.
One, I wanted to get your assessment of the Iranian drones that we have seen. We saw videos out of Ukraine that they’ve hit Odesa, in targeting civilian infrastructure and targeting the Ukrainian Armed Forces. What’s your assessment of the damage that these drones are doing? And can you give us more information about what types of drones that we’re seeing? And do you anticipate any additional deliveries of these sorts of weapons from Iran?
GEN. RYDER: Sure. So we do assess that the Russians now are using the Iranian drones that we’ve talked about in the past — that were delivered to Russia, that we do assess that they are now using them in Ukraine.
In terms of their effectiveness, I don’t want to provide a battle damage assessment here from the podium or get into specific intelligence, other than to say again we’ve seen them employ them.
I – we’ve also seen reports of the Ukrainians shooting down some of these drones. Again, I’m not going to get into specific numbers but we assess that those are credible.
And so I think, again, it’s just indicative of the Russians employing a capability that we know they’ve sought out from Iran and they’re using the way they indicated they would use them, right, for both kinetic attacks and ISR.
But beyond that, at this point I’m really not going to be able to get on to more detail.
Q: Have you see the missiles from North Korea arrive in Russia yet?
GEN. RYDER: So beyond the information we provided before, which is that we have indications that Russia is seeking support from North Korea for ammunition, I’m not going to have anything further at this stage.
OK. Let me jump out to the phones here and then I’ll come back in the room. Let’s go with Heather from USNI.
OK. Let me go back to the room here. Oren?
Q: General, I was just wondering if you could give a bit more detail, you mentioned at the end of Lita’s question, Russian offensive operations, particularly in Donbas. Is that the only place at this point they’re trying to conduct or conducting offensive operations?
Are they having any success there whether it’s a couple of kilometers or none at all? And have their operations been able to affect in any way Ukraine’s counter offensive, disrupt it in some fashion?
GEN. RYDER: So again, recognizing that really the Ukrainians are the right folks to talk in detail, generally speaking what you see is, again, in the Donbas region there, the Russians with elements of the Wagner group attempting to essentially take territory. I think I’ve mentioned previously we’ve seen hundreds of meters, in some cases, but nothing that I would consider significant.
The Ukrainians have, so far, done a good job of holding the line there and repulsing those offensive operations. The way I would characterize the north and the south on the Russian side is essentially defensive at this stage. The Ukrainians continue to make deliberate movement forward.
And so, yes, that’s where I’d leave it. Thank you.
OK, let me go back out to the phone and I’ll come back in the room here. Phil Stewart from Reuters.Q: Hey there, thanks. Listen, I realize you can’t go into intel matters but there’s quite a lot of concern about the Russian nuclear threats. I’m wondering, you know, does the statement that the Pentagon does not see anything that would cause it to adjust this nuclear posture mean that there hasn’t been any Russian activity? Is that definitive?
And also how does the Russian threats of nuclear escalation play into how NATO’s nuclear alliance is thinking about moving forward with its support to Ukraine? Thanks.
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, sure. So Phil, I’d say to your first question, I’m not going to have anything different to provide other than, again, we have not seen anything — or have any reason to adjust our posture at this stage.
In terms of the impact on U.S. and international unity and efforts to support Ukraine, as we’ve said before, our focus will continue to be on working together to support Ukraine as they fight to defend their country.
And so I don’t see any change in that at this time.
Thank you. OK. Dan.
OK. Let me go back up to the phone. Luis Martinez, ABC.
Q: Hi, sir. Just two quick questions. One on Hurricane and one on Ukraine. Do you have a — do you know how many ships or how many forces or bases have been reorganized or moved around as a result of, in advance of, the hurricanes coming?
GEN. RYDER: I don’t have that right in front of me, Luis, but we can get that for you.
Q: OK. And on Ukraine, it’s actually more a Russia question, you’ve spoken in the past about how the Russian mobilization may not impact the battlefield. Can you talk to us about these images that we’re seeing inside Russia of these long convoys at border checkpoints, people being upset with these local mobilization officers. What does that speak to? What is the Pentagon’s take on that? Thanks.
GEN. RYDER: Well, it’s certainly something that we’re keeping an eye on as it relates to Russia’s overall readiness and ability to mobilize forces, primarily, again, because this is part of the broader conflict in Ukraine and certainly could impact future conditions there on the battlefield.
As for the response of the Russian people, that’s really not for me to say. I think you can all watch that and make your own conclusions on that. From a operational standpoint, from a military standpoint, as we discussed previously, leading and managing any large military organization is a monumental undertaking in and of itself which requires a high degree of expertise when it comes to things like logistics, sustainment, recruiting, equipping, et cetera. And so again, we just continue to see some of the challenges that the Russian military faces and will continue to face. All that said, it is something that we will have to continue to take seriously, and I know the Ukrainians will continue to take seriously in terms of what the impact will be longer-term on the battlefield. Thank you.
OK, let me go to J.J. Green, and then I’ll come back to the room here.
Q: General, thank you for the chance to ask this question. You’ve spoken before about Russia trying to pull — trying to claim itself as the victim and using that as a call to try to rally support, but these long lines that Luis talked about seem to suggest that that may not be working, but that may just be a small slice of what’s really going on. Do you have a broader picture of how this immobilization is going?
GEN. RYDER: Well, again, yeah, to your earlier comment there, I mean, if we step back in terms of what we’ve all been watching play out over the last year or so, Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around. And so it — they are the aggressor here, and clearly have not achieved their strategic objectives when it came to their initial military aims within Ukraine. And as a result, you know, we’ve seen them struggle with command and control. We’ve seen them struggle with logistics. We’ve seen them struggle with sustainment and with troop morale. And now with this mobilization, it’s an effort to address the overall manpower challenges that the Russian military is facing. And again, it adds another level of complexity to an already-challenging systemic situation when it comes to employing these troops.
So we’ll continue to keep an eye on it. In the meantime, our focus, the U.S. focus is working very closely with the international community to support Ukraine in their fight, which will continue to be a tough and difficult fight in the days ahead.
GEN. RYDER: Thanks, J.J.
Sir?
Q: Thank you, General. Two separate questions, first on the mobilization. There are, you know, reports and video footage of, as you mentioned, Russia having a challenging time, actually employing these troops and sending them out and supplying them, essentially, whether it’s ballistic vests or medical equipment. A lot of these troops are having to go and procure these themselves. Does the DOD assess that the Russian military wouldn’t even be able to sustain a full mobilization, since they’re having so much trouble with a partial one?
GEN. RYDER: So, you know, I don’t want to necessarily overstate it and say that we’re — you know, or comment on Russia’s ability to fully mobilize. I think undoubtedly, based on what you’re seeing on — you know, play out in the open press is that they will have challenges meeting those numbers. All that said, you know, we’ll continue to monitor and we’ll continue to see how this plays out. Thank you.
Let me do — yeah, go ahead.
Q: All right, then, the U.S. Coast Guard announced that they have spotted Chinese and Russian ships off the coast of Alaska. I’m curious what the DOD is seeing on that front, and if that’s a common occurrence that’s been happening, or has that spiked recently?
GEN. RYDER: So we’ve seen Russia and China, you know, sail together before, and so my understanding is that those — sailings, — they were sailing in international waters, so no issues there. But obviously, you know, we’ll continue to monitor that and in the meantime, you know, I’d recommend you contact the Coast Guard. They may have additional information on that. Thank you.
All right, let me jump back out to the phone here real quick. I’ve got Caitlin from the New York Post.
Q: Hi. I’ve actually been asked and answered. Thank you so much.
GEN. RYDER: All right, Jeff Schogol, Task & Purpose?
Q: Thank you. In August, a senior military official estimated that the Russians have suffered 80,000 casualties. Can you provide an updated estimate of how many casualties the Russians have suffered, and include a breakdown of how many of those are killed?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks for the question, Jeff. I don’t have any updates to provide today beyond what we’ve provided previously. Obviously, the battlefield continues to be a very dangerous place and a lot of casualties, but I don’t have any specific numbers to provide. Thank you.
GEN. RYDER: OK, let me go to Sylvie, AFP.
Q: Hello. Thank you. I would like to follow up on Phil’s question on the nuclear threat. You say that you don’t see anything that would make U.S. change its nuclear posture. Do — what would trigger a change of posture? Would it be simple Russian movements, or would you wait for Russia to use a nuclear weapon?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, thanks, Sylvie. So I don’t want to necessarily get into our tactics or our procedures other than to say that we maintain a whole host of capabilities and proven processes to address any potential threats of that kind. So in the meantime, again, just to reiterate, we’ve seen nothing that would cause us to change our posture. We’ll continue to monitor this very closely. We’ll continue to take it very seriously. But in the meantime, again, there — we’ve seen nothing that would indicate a need to change our particular posture. Thank you.
OK, let me go to Fadi, and then Jim.
Q: Thank you, General. So we’re watching two events unfolding at the same time today, the end of the so-called referendum in the territories that were occupied by Russia. On the other hand, you have the mobilization regardless of the type of challenges the Russians are facing. Is your assessment that the Russians still have the appetite or the strategic objective of capturing additional Ukrainian territories, or in light of the referendum and the mobilization, the aim of this additional manpower is to hold what they have now inside of Ukraine?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so two things on that. One, you know, first of all, ultimately, that’s for Russia to decide. However, we’ve seen no indication that they have any intention of changing their overall aim, which is to take over Ukraine, right?
And so I think, again, what we saw from the, you know, earlier part of this conflict was they were not able to meet those broader strategic objectives, and so they scaled back and changed those objectives. And so this latest effort to conduct the sham referenda are an effort to essentially try to change the narrative and distract from the fact that they are not meeting their objectives.
All that to say, no indication that they intend to stop fighting anytime soon, and as I’ve mentioned, and others have mentioned, Russia could end this conflict tomorrow, but in the meantime, we’ll continue to support the Ukrainians in their fight to defend their country and their sovereign territory. Thank you.
Let me go to Jim and then I’ll go back out to the phone.
Q: Yeah, thanks, General. In the past, you’ve been talking about the Russians not learning from their mistakes and not, you know, fixing their logistical problems or fixing their personnel problems. And it strikes me that the Ukrainians are learning from this and their tactics, techniques and procedures have gotten actually better as they’ve gone along in the last six months.
What’s the difference? Why is one side learning, the other side not?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah — no, I appreciate the question, Jim. So I — you know, I don’t want to try to get inside the minds of the Russians or the Ukrainians, other than to say you’re right, the Ukrainians have improvised, overcome and adapted very well on the battlefield. And I think in part is they’re defending their sovereign territory, they’re fighting for their homeland. They have something very dear to fight for and against a neighbor who has invaded them.
So in terms of why the Russian military has performed so poorly, that’s a question they’ll have to answer. It is a fact, and in the meantime, we’ll just continue to support the Ukrainians in their fight. Thank you.
Q: Just a follow up on Russia, we have seen for over months Russians have faltered a lot on the battlefield, they lost a lot, they give a lot of casualties — but we haven’t seen Russians show — using their advanced arms that they have showcased for a long time, like S-400s, Su-35s, and all other advanced missiles. What is the assessment? What is the insight at the Pentagon? Why Russians are not using those?
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, I really — Kasim, I really can’t answer that. That’s a — really a question for the Russian military to address. Yeah, I really can’t answer that. So — OK, thanks very much, everybody. Appreciate it.
Here is the British MOD assessment for today:
And here is their updated map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments regarding the situations in Kherson and Lyman (2 updates, most recent first regarding Lyman):
KHERSON/2110 UTC 27 SEP/ UKR has solidified its air defense network in Kherson oblast. On 27 SEP, a Russian Su-25 was interdicted by UKR air defense. The wreckage fell within UKR lines indicating the the Su-25 may have been attempting an intruder mission. pic.twitter.com/GjRbey5BON
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 27, 2022
LYMAN / FLASH TRAFFIC / 2330 UTC 27 SEP / UKR forces reported to have registered advances north of Lyman. RU units are falling back in some disarray. Heavy combat reported at Shandryholove. FEBA within 3.5 Km of critical junction city of Zarichne. pic.twitter.com/G08WcnEoUb
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 27, 2022
LYMAN AXIS/ 2010 27 SEP/ UKR forces are reported to be in contact at Shandryholove. UKR has consolidated gains north of the Lyman urban area, and have engaged RU occupiers within the rail complex at Lyman. Reports from RU and UKR sources has been used in this map. pic.twitter.com/59WBS8rchg
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 27, 2022
So part of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline appears to have blown up/been blown up in Danish waters:
L’eau bouillonne dans la zone au-dessus de la fuite du gazoduc Nord Stream en mer Baltique
(Images : armée danoise) #NordStream #gazleak #Russiangazpic.twitter.com/Wib0rnhKIk
— Antoine Llorca (@antoinellorca) September 27, 2022
Reuters has details:
OSLO, Sept 27 (Reuters) – Seismologists in Denmark and Sweden on Monday registered powerful blasts in the areas of the Nord Stream gas leaks, Sweden’s National Seismology Centre (SNSN) at the Uppsala University told public broadcaster SVT on Tuesday.
“There is no doubt that these were explosions,” SNSN seismologist Bjorn Lund told SVT.
Russian state backed TV’s favorite useless idiot has thoughts!
After suggesting the US blew up the pipelines, Tucker starts listing possible options for the Russian retaliation pic.twitter.com/XvmHolSSg4
— Acyn (@Acyn) September 28, 2022
This guy needs a 72 hour observational hold!
The mobilization is going well…
What’s happening is actually beyond insane.
It’s been over 7 months, but sometimes I still can’t believe my eyes and ears.
A giant meat grinder not seen in Europe since 1945 — and for the sake of NOTHING but a handful of old corrupt farts wishing to stay in power forever.— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 27, 2022
A woman, who appears to be with long-term military experience, is giving instructions to mobiks on what to take with them. This includes everything that is not armour and uniform, that is, tourniquets, medicines, and women's pads. pic.twitter.com/2geWXw8gmq
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 26, 2022
Here's full translation of his address. 1/2: "Hi everyone, the first tank regiment is here. We were officially told that there would be no training before we will be sent to the war zone. The regiment’s commanders confirmed this. On September 29 we’re will be sent to Kherson".
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) September 27, 2022
🤡The adventures of the mobilized in #Russia pt.2 pic.twitter.com/hz8iTIleOT
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 26, 2022
As I wrote the other night, I’ve seen nicer homeless shelters.
I finally got a chance to read the Time article about General Zaluzhny. Here’s a taste, but I do recommend the whole thing.
It would be easy to underestimate Valeriy Zaluzhny. When not in uniform, the general prefers T-shirts and shorts that match his easygoing sense of humor. When he first heard from aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in late July 2021 that he was being tapped to lead the country’s armed forces, his stunned response was, “What do you mean?” As it sank in that he would become commander in chief, he tells TIME in his first interview since the Russian invasion began, he felt as if he had been punched “not just below the belt but straight into a knockout.” George Patton or Douglas MacArthur he is not.
Yet when the history of the war in Ukraine is written, Zaluzhny is likely to occupy a prominent role. He was part of the Ukrainian brass who spent years transforming the country’s military from a clunky Soviet model into a modern fighting force. Hardened by years of battling Russia on the eastern front, he was among a new generation of Ukrainian leaders who learned to be flexible and delegate decisions to commanders on the ground. His dogged preparation in the run-up to the invasion and savvy battlefield tactics in the early phases of the war helped the nation fend off the Russian onslaught. “Zaluzhny has emerged as the military mind his country needed,” U.S. General Mark Milley wrote for TIME of his counterpart last May. “His leadership enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to adapt quickly with battlefield initiative against the Russians.”
That initiative has now taken a key turn in Ukraine’s favor. In Kyiv’s biggest gains since the war began in February, a lightning counteroffensive in the country’s northeast in early September stunned Russian troops, who fled in disarray and ceded vast swaths of occupied territory. Combined with a second operation in the south, Ukrainian forces say they wrested back more than 6,000 sq km from Russian control in less than two weeks, liberating dozens of towns and cities and cutting off enemy supply lines. The Ukrainian army’s deft game of misdirection, touting a counter-offensive in the south before attacking in the northeast, caught Russia off guard. And it validated the Ukrainians’ arguments that intelligence collaboration and billions of dollars in weapons and materiel supplied by Western allies would yield results on the battlefield.
The sudden victories came at a critical point in what had become a grinding war of attrition. As the economic pressures built across Europe and around the world, skeptics were beginning to doubt whether Ukraine could endure a protracted fight. The dramatic rout rattled Moscow, forcing Kremlin propagandists to admit the setback and upping the military and political pressures on Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Sept. 21 he responded by announcing the first mass conscription since World War II, a partial mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens.
Ukrainian and U.S. officials alike believe the war will be longer and bloodier than most imagine. Putin has shown he’s willing to sacrifice his troops and commit atrocities to exhaust his adversary. In a menacing speech, he warned that he was “not bluffing” when he threatened to use everything at his disposal to defend Russia—an allusion to nuclear weapons. The recent Ukrainian offensive may be a turning point, but it is not the decisive blow. “In hindsight, we’ll look at this like the Battle of Midway,” says Dan Rice, a U.S. Army combat veteran and leadership executive at West Point who serves as a special adviser to Zaluzhny, referring to the pivotal 1942 clash that preceded three more years of war.
Zaluzhny is just one of many Ukrainians responsible for the grit and progress of the nation’s outmanned army. Other key officers include General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who led the defense of Kyiv and, more recently, the counteroffensive in the east, and Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service. But after the President, Zaluzhny has become the face of the war effort. His persona is omnipresent on Ukrainian social media. One widely shared image shows the “Iron General” kneeling in front of the sobbing mother of one of his soldiers, head bowed in grief in front of a casket. In another he flashes a grin presiding over the wedding of one of his servicemen during a lull in the fighting. Fan channels on Telegram have hundreds of thousands of followers, with many changing their profiles to a photo of the general with his hands held in the shape of a heart. “When Zaluzhny walks into a dark room he does not turn on the light, he turns off the darkness,” one viral TikTok video jokes.
It’s hard to predict where the war is headed or the part Zaluzhny will play in the end. But perhaps for the first time, it now seems possible that the army he commands could achieve victory.
Much, much, much more at the link!
A little shopping might be nice!
Winter is Coming
And Ukrainian soldiers need our help
Our goal is to buy $1M worth of generators, sleeping bags, thermal clothing, and medical kits before December
This week, we ordered 100 generators worth $100,000
Shop, donate and spread the word.https://t.co/qdp11CAuqN pic.twitter.com/QfYjReAcOR
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) September 27, 2022
I have one of these in the heather denim/navy.
I think that’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
The wrong tag to author 🤭 @dorosh_raw is the author of this photo ☺️
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 27, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok account!
@patron__dsns
The caption translates as:
Open thread!
Kristine
Ordered my Ukraine postage stamp set today. I should buy something from Saint Javelin.
I grew up in the Port Charlotte area. I remember homes on the Peace River flooding. And oh I remember hurricanes. I don’t miss them one bit.
Dangerman
Everyone be safe out there (/phil-esterhaus).
I wonder if Governor Stuntman will play nice with Biden (see Obama, Christie, and Sandy) and be excommunicated.
Tony G
Jesus. So apparently Russia is sending conscripts into combat with no training at all. That makes no sense at all if the objective of the Russian Army is to win battles. It seems like the Russian military (maybe Russian society as a whole) is a collapsing system. Unbelievable.
lowtechcyclist
If a man buys women’s pads, does that make them MANPADS?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
First, I’m glad you seem to be safe, and please keep us posted if possible. May I ask–my cousin and her family live in Eustis. I’ve reached out to her on FB but haven’t heard back. I can’t tell from the maps I’ve seen, but do you know if her area would be in an evac zone?
Reading the British MOD has me incensed. I cannot believe that little gremlin can just announce that the land now belongs to him and that’s supposed to be a done deal. (I mean, in the minds of most russians.) And you’ve got people in occupied areas “voting” under coercion and extreme duress and probably at the barrel of a gun, and they want us to believe that’s a valid vote? GFY, vlad, you wretched demon turd.
And so…the US has been all sniffy about Ukraine not using any weapons we send them to fire onto russian soil. But what about this? I assume the US won’t recognize the stolen land as russian, right? Ukraine would still be “allowed” (ugh) to launch strikes in those areas?
I wish we could send all the awful people into space and fling them at asteroids.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kristine:
A question about the Ukraine stamp sets for anyone that knows: are the ones bought off Amazon directly benefiting the Ukrainian government? Is there anywhere else more official they can be ordered from? I’m poking around Ukraine Post Service website now
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
@Dangerman: He already tried to ignore POTUS during a press conference (and actually got called out for it!) – all jibber jabber about being ready and what he had done and was going to do. He is such an unmitigated asshole.
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Since I get mine directly, I’m not sure, but I think that the Ukrainian Postal Service (UKRPOSHTA) sells directly via Amazon. In that case the money would go to the postal service, which is a branch of the government.
Kent
Adam or other military experts.
I was wondering what the chances are that this Nord Stream pipeline sabotage could be non-state actors. It occurs to me that with the pipeline shut down for months there are going to be astonishing windfall profits realized by pretty much every non-Russian source of natural gas or other fuel by any company who can get it to Europe. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars in windfall profits if not more.
Could not some non-state actors with a big play on American or Gulf natural gas resources have pulled off something like this? There are so many non-state paramilitary groups floating around the planet these days. If you can realize a few billion in windfall profits it might be worth blowing up a pipeline in international waters. I don’t know how hard it is do drop a ton of explosives on top of a pipeline as some sort of depth charge and then just blow it up. Maybe with a timed fuse that goes off a day later after you have well cleared the area.
Now that we know where the explosion happened I expect intelligence agencies will be looking at satellite footage of every ship that transited that space in the past week or even month.
Another Scott
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The one
‘s I ordered on Amazon were shipped directly from Kyiv to me. Took about 3 weeks. They seem 100% legit and official even though the storefront has a Montana address.HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kent
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: No one is going to recognize the results of this so-called referendum, not even Russia’s traditional allies like Serbia or Kazakhstan. This was about 3 things:
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Another Scott:
@Gin & Tonic:
The reason I ask is because I’ve seen different third party sellers of them on AMZ. I would definitely prefer the Ukrainian government get the money than resellers
patrick II
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
For argument’s sake, let us say that Ukraine clears the Russian army from much of Ukraine right up to the Russian border. At some point, if Putin continues, he will amass a large number of his new troops near the border with Ukraine in preparation to take back “lost” territory. Does Ukraine have to wait until the Russians re-invade and let them maneuver without risk behind the Russian border?
Gin & Tonic
This is (to me) a really funny, short video. Russian POW is chatting with his captors, who tell him they are “Banderivtsi” from L’viv, and his eyes get really big:
This may need context, if you don’t recall some of my previous long-form posts. Stepan Bandera was the leader of the “radical” faction of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, the OUN(b) in WWII and after. Followers of that faction are called Banderivtsi, and have for decades been bogeymen for the USSR and then the russian federation – russia explicitly equates Banderivtsi and Nazis. After decades of this, they have probably taken on mythical proportions for the average russian, so when these Ukrainians introduce themselves as such – and from L’viv, the hotbed of the OUN – it’s as if he’s been captured by the Nazgul or something. A good time was had by most.
Grumpy Old Railroader
OMG these DOD Press Briefings are just gob smacking ridiculous with the dumb-ass questions. Toward the end I skipped the questions and went directly to the answers which mostly were something like, “I am not Putin’s mind reader so I cannot answer your question” -or- “Not gonna reveal that information.”
dmsilev
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Putin has claimed Crimea as part of Russia for years now, and so far as I can tell, nobody has raised any objections to the Ukrainians hitting Russian bases there.
Another Scott
@Kent: It seems to me to overwhelmingly likely to have been VVP.
Sensible advice. Still…
We’ll probably know more in coming days, but may never know for sure.
Cheers,
Scott.
Aussie Sheila
Hi Adam,
I want to say a belated ‘thank-you’ for your work on these updates. I often skip over the bits that I know will be emotionally distressing for me while understanding they are necessary if witness is to be born.
I feel bad for the young and old Russian men being sent into this slaughter. They also have mother, sisters, wives and lovers, who aren’t responsible for this outrage against human decency. For all those who scoff at the passivity of the Russian people, I would ask you this-what did you do during the war in Iraq2?
Of course everyone opposed voted against it, but even if you demonstrated as I did, and organised others to do the same, did any of us throw our bodies and our loved ones in front of the war machine?
I didn’t and neither did anyone else I know.
When even honest elections are denied a population, resistance is an existential proposition. If we are honest, it is few and far between who will risk all, including their lives, if the alternative is to flee. After all, it’s not just Russians who are susceptible to relentless propaganda and who still value life.
Once again, thank-you Adam for all you do here.
sdhays
@Kent: But how many of them can perform an operation like this at the bottom of the ocean? And the risk of it getting tracked back to non-state actors is immense. They aren’t protected by a nuclear umbrella.
To me, Occam’s Razor says it’s the Russians. Why? Because, as Adam has taught us, Putin only knows how to escalate. He knows his options are few, but he needs lash out somehow.
This can screw over Europe and even if it’s definitively tracked back to him, what’s Germany going to do? Give Ukraine tanks? At this point, he doesn’t care.
Gin & Tonic
@Kent: Keep in mind that Nordstream 1 has been shut down for a while (russia took it down for “maintenance”) and Nordstream 2 hasn’t yet been completed. So yes, they are leaking gas due to the rupture(s) but they have not been actually transporting gas to Europe in commercial volumes.
YY_Sima Qian
Amateur analyses I have read on Chinese social media suggests that Putin is dong the partial mobilization to hold on to the gains in the 4 partially/fully occupied oblasts, rather than trying to achieve his goals of turning a rump Ukrainian state into a landlocked country. By formally annexing the occupied territories, it allows Putin to deploy the draftees to these regions to man the defenses (& blustering w/ WMDs).
Certainly a more realistic objective, but I am not sure how well connected Putin still is to reality.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Kent: Good points. I wonder is putin will pull a trump on the maps and redraw the borders with Sharpie.
Gin & Tonic
@sdhays: From what I’ve read, the ruptures were at a depth of 70 meters, which is within the range of SCUBA divers. Not that deep.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@dmsilev: This is true.
PaulWartenberg
I am in Polk County and in the path of the hurricane but I got nowhere to run, so I am hunkering down.
I have bottled tea and water, a small battery generator for emergencies, enough food for the cats to last until the next grocery run.
My biggest concern will be flooding, there’s been enough rainfall before this hurricane is coming that the ground is soaked and may not be able to take more. I have sandbags at the more vulnerable doors, but anything can happen…
Kent
All of them. This was shallow water (70 meters deep). There are a LOT of non-state actors who know exactly how to operate at that depth and at far greater depths to do drilling, oil exploration, etc. There are contractors operating all of the world doing marine engineering at far greater depths. Even an ordinary fishing trawler could tow equipment right up to that spot. It is shallow.
If this is a non-state action, I would expect that whatever types of mercenary operatives might have pulled off something like this have absolutely no idea who hired them and the real actors would be hidden behind layers of impenetrable shells.
Another Scott
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I tried to order via the PO website for a few weeks and it either never worked or they didn’t list a US distributor and there didn’t seem to be a way to ship to the USA. Maybe things have changed – you’re free to try yourself.
Lybid Wave is the vendor I used. (I think it’s the same one Adam listed a thread or so ago.) The items were shipped directly to me from UkrPoshta in Kyiv.
If it walks like a duck…
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
sdhays
@Gin & Tonic: So, perhaps not quite as far-fetched as I supposed, but Russia still seems to be the likely culprit until other evidence turns up. At least to me.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Eustis is well in land and north of where the storm will make landfall. She’s going to get wind and rain given the current storm track. Unless it floods from excessive rain, she should be fine.
dm
So, NASA threw a space probe at an asteroid the other day to change the asteroid’s orbit.
Would it have been cheaper to hire a Ukrainian farmer and his tractor?
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The ones I linked to are being sold by the Ukrainian postal service. They are shipped from Ukraine.
Amir Khalid
@lowtechcyclist:
Seriously, it sounds crazy to me. So the mighty Russian army can only issue its 300,000 new doodz a uniform, a rifle, a ride straight to the battlefront, and tell them to scrounge for the rest on their own? That’s surely not the proper way to kit out an army. And it’s almost October now. Will they have to find their own winter gear too?
Cameron
I hope my friend in Siesta Key finds her house in one piece; fortunately, she herself is out of state. Judging by the number of parked cars in my development, the majority of my fellow old duffers is going to try riding this out. I guess we’ll be OK; southern Manatee County, but not too close to the shore.
sdhays
@Kent: It just sounds like a very tired and cliched James Bond plot.
Note: I’m not saying you’re wrong, because the world is in a very weird place right now. Just that it doesn’t seem like the most likely explanation given the currently available evidence.
CaseyL
Thank you, Adam, for another excellent roundup of Ukraine news – and the warnings about the hurricane. My Mom and BFF live in Florida, but on the east coast, so (knock wood) they should be OK.
I haven’t gotten my Ukrainian postage stamps yet, but I have received a delightful Patron coffee mug from Javelin. It’s a regular-sized mug (that is, a small-ish mug in Seattle, where we drink our coffee by the pint), blue interior and handle, with a blue-and-yellow graphic of Patron on each outside curve.
I love it and can’t wait to drink out of it!
Jay
@Tony G:
Read a MilBlogger a couple of days ago who has been tracking Wagner tactics for years.
Cannon fodder are sent forward with Wagner following behind, (Syrians, etc). When the defenders open up on the cannon fodder, they reveal their positions and Wagner then targets those positions with heavier arms.
When the shooting dies down, (combat tends to go in bursts of activity) a new group of Cannon Fodder along with any survivors are sent forward to determine if the Wagner attacks were effective, and if so, continue forward to identify the second line of defense
Cameron
@Amir Khalid: They’re probably not expected to live that long.
Another Scott
GovExec – Senate agreement for CR for 10 weeks:
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you! That’s good to know.
Steeplejack
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Eustis is in Lake County, in the middle of the state, and not in an evacuation zone. Here’s the “Know Your Zone” map for Eustis. (Might have to zoom in and/or reënter location.) Lake County is closing schools, opening shelters, etc., but no evacuations have been ordered so far. Helpful information page here.
sdhays
@dm: Harvest is coming up and they’re dealing with a massive glut of donated Russian hardware right now.
Damn supply chain!
Princess
If I were Putin, I would have formally “annexed” the Ukrainian territory first, whipped everyone in Russia up into some kind of sentimental patriotic ferment (to whatever degree that is possible), and then done the mobilisation order. I feel like that would have been slightly more successful. But what do I know? I’m not a sociopathic authoritarian dictator.
Jay
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Yeah, you see, I checked that out. The seller is “Lybid Wave”. Another just like it I found selling Ukrainian stamps is called “BraveUA”. Which, if any, are the real one? How do we know these are the official storefront for Ukrainian National Post?
I’m sorry for getting in the weeds on this, but I’d prefer my purchases are going directly to the Ukrainian government
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: No. we officially do not recognize any seized territory and let Ukraine take it back. If Putin even orders a nuke, we fucking obliterate Russia’s leadership and their military. All of them.
Medicine Man
Illia has a way with words. All for a bunch of “corrupt old farts who want to remain in power forever” is a good summation.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
Is there any way to counter/overcome this?
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: There are no non-state actors that I know of with the capabilities to do this. The Russians do have the capability, but it is unclear if those assets are in a position to do it. Their submarine capable of doing this is, apparently, in the White Sea according to H. I. Sutton. Go to his Twitter feed, he’s got a thread on this.
Spanky
@lowtechcyclist: Go to your room.
sdhays
@Princess: I won’t put myself in Putin’s shoes, but it strikes me that there was very serious discussion about Russia employing some level of mobilization back at the beginning of May, and yet five months later, they don’t even have sleeping bags prepared for any of these guys. Building up stockpiles of these simple things, which Russia actually can produce itself despite sanctions, would have seemed like a simple no-brainer.
But not in Putin’s Russia. It’s got to be incredibly obvious to all of those guys that none of them are expected to survive. I wonder how that will affect their behavior. If I thought I wasn’t going to survive, I might be more interested in taking out some of the people forcing me to be there rather any “enemy” soldiers.
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Kill Prigozhin and all of the Wagnerites.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Steeplejack: She’s a teacher in the Lake County school system, so I’m sure she’s glad schools are closed and she can stay home!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Jay: Dang.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Ksmiami: You really need to chill a bit with this talk.
Kattails
Completely untrained troops. Nice. Sure, ask your girlfriend for some tampons you can use to plug up the bullet wound. I’m sure morale is going to be fabulous. And (as from below) if Fetterman wants to kick anyone in the nuts he could do worse than to start with Tucker. It would probably add 5 points to his lead.
My 93 year old mother lives in Port Charlotte. He husband’s house is one of the older ones with some kind of practically Kevlar type storm shutters. He says they’re fine at 23 feet, practically mountainous. I live at 1300 and am, uh, skeptical. He described putting the car in the garage, backing it up to the door and tying it to some iron posts so the garage door can’t blow in… yikes. There isn’t a damn thing I or my sister can do except wait for her to call after it’s gone by; they’ve both been there 50 years. Y’all stay safe.
Lyrebird
@Steeplejack: Thank you! The maps I found by Googling were all for flood insurance zones and went from A to AE without B, not helpful. This is very helpful.
Adam L Silverman
@Aussie Sheila: I voluntarily went to Iraq in a civilian capacity with the Army’s first cultural program as the cultural advisor to a brigade combat team and the co-team lead for their cultural ops team. As the program was an experiment, all the civilians in it were contractors including me. Part of the reason I went is because of my research specialties, I knew i had the education and expertise to help the brigade better understand the wants, needs, and expectations of the local population enabling better planning for the hold and build phase of the surge. This meant more non-kinetic/non-lethal options for the brigade, which translated to fewer killed and wounded Soldiers and Iraqis. And I did this despite personally opposing the war and thinking it was a strategic mistake. I taught at the University of Central Arkansas in 2005-2006 and had far too many students who were Arkansas National Guard and been through the grinder in Iraq. Given my areas of expertise I could not in good conscience sit comfortably and safely at home while they went back over and over. So I started looking for civil service or contractor work with the military and the intel community that would allow me to make practical use of my education. In doing so I found my real profession.
Adam L Silverman
@Aussie Sheila: And you’re most welcome.
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Not when Russia is basically sending more criminal fucking thugs to terrorize Ukraine and w Putin threatening to use nukes. Nope. Russia is a menace to the globe – it needs to be defeated
Adam L Silverman
@PaulWartenberg: You know how to reach me. Let me know if you need anything.
Ksmiami
@Gin & Tonic: agreed. They aren’t even human –
Jay
Major Major Major Major
Stay safe!
Steeplejack
@Kattails:
I hate to be a downer, but this sounds like classic dumb-fuck thinking on the old guy’s part. It’s not just the violence of the storm, it’s the water surge and flooding. The house might survive fine—with them sitting on the roof with water lapping at their heels.
Sending good thoughts for them, though.
Cameron
BBC site says Russia announced that it has ‘won’ its elections. Quelle surprise!
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: This tactic goes back to the Soviets in WWII.
patrick II
@Adam L Silverman:
Could the Russians have simply used a pig with an attached charge? I am not sure what the Russian’s motive would be since they can just turn off the line whenever they want.
Inventor
@Adam L Silverman: If Russia did it, and they probably did, they would use a pipe pig with an explosive. They were on the hook for NordStream I deliveries, now they can claim force majeure.
Andrya
@sdhays: If I thought I wasn’t going to survive, and didn’t believe in the cause, I would be even more interested in surrendering at the first opportunity. Especially if I had been shipped into the army because I had been participating in an anti-war protest.
One thing I believe no one has pointed out: by shipping anti-war protesters directly into the army, the putin regime is sending a message that military service is punishment for criminals and low lifes, not the honorable duty of a citizen. Even allowing for the short-term gain, this strikes me a counterproductive.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Order or don’t order. Or be Hamlet. It’s up to you. The link I posted last night I actually got from one of the tweets from Patron’s official account. And I posted that tweet here the night I ordered the stamps. In fact the sequence was saw the official Patron tweet about the stamps, posted it here, finished the update, published the update, went to the link, and ordered the stamps. I figured if it was in a tweet from Patron’s official account it was legit.
Major Major Major Major
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): sounds like a good way to get fragged
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: Dial it down two notches please.
Kent
@patrick II: My background isn’t military but I spent a decade of my life in commercial fisheries on the Bering first working on fishing trawlers and then in fisheries management for NOAA in Alaska.
Based on my experience working on trawlers, I would think you could take any old beat up 80 ft fishing trawler and drag an anchor designed for that purpose attached to a cable until you snag the pipeline which I think is just laying on the sea floor not buried. The sea is shallow there, about 70 meters and commercial trawlers drag nets far deeper than that all the time. And all trawlers have trawl cables that can reach far deeper than that. Every beat up fishing trawler in the North Atlantic has capstan winches with cables that can reach that depth.
Once you snag the pipeline you just send whatever kind of torpedo charge you want down the cable. I wouldn’t even have to be a powered torpedo, just some massive charge that slides down the cable via gravity.
The engineering seems pretty trivial. You don’t need secret submarines or any such. And if you put it on a delayed charge you can be out of there long before anything blows.
patrick II
@Inventor:
That comment answered both the questions I had at 68. Thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@patrick II: I have no idea, this is not my area of expertise.
Torrey
Here’s a link to Zelenskyy’s daily broadcast for today. Subtitles included. He comments on the referendum(s).
Sister Golden Bear
@Tony G: I saw a take from one military export (of unknown reliability) that with Russia’s artillery-first approach, the infantry will be sent forward as human wave attacks to draw Ukrainian artillery fire — enabling the Russians to destroy it via counter battery fire. So the draftees don’t need training since their only purpose is to die.
Horrific as it is, it sounds plausible, with more of a (sociopathic) logic than other theories I’ve seen.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
There are two tactical means of countering this in static defense.
#1, the Front Line is lightly held, but is connected by “Communication Trenches” to a line further back where the main defending force is. The Front Line is overgunned with SAW’s and ATGL’s. The light line takes care of the Fodder, then pulls back part way to shelters while Wagner beats up and empty line. Then they go back with the rest to the Front Line to “greet” the next crop of Fodder while using heavier weapons, MLRS, arty and drones to pound Wagner,
#2, follow #1 but use Wagner fires to ID their positions, (there are not that many of them), then launch a combined arms assault into Wagner before they get their next crop of fodder forward. Both the Lybians and the Ukrainians have been very good at that.
Captain C
@dm: I think that’s Phase 2. They have to know they can get to it first. No sense in wasting a good Ukrainian farmer if they can’t.
Captain C
@Adam L Silverman: Given the depth of the pipelines at the boom spot (70 meters IIRC) could this be done with just a reasonably small boat and a crew of trained frogmen with the necessary supplies? If it’s Russians, could such a mission be staged out of Kaliningrad?
And if so, does this increase the number of non-state actors with the means (if not the opportunity or motive) to do so?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks, I search for that Tweet. Which post was it on?
YY_Sima Qian
My apologies for OT, but just to clean up after the “China Coup!” brouhaha from over the weekend, on which far too many digital bits have been wasted. It is a good opportunity to examine the mechanics of how a baseless rumor quickly dominated social media, & an opportunity to examine the actual signals of a coup/unplanned leadership transition might actually look like w/ the CCP regime.
The MIT Tech Review has done a thorough analysis on the genesis & progression of the rumor.
The mechanics is familiar to other instances of disinformation campaigns, just a reminder that there are bad actors seeking to take advantage of the credulous & sow chaos, everywhere & from all sides.
Drew Thompson at National University of Singapore (& former DOD official for China/Taiwan/Mongolia) has offered the following list of things on a Twitter thread to look for should there be a coup in Beijing:
In the event of a coup, there are so many foreign diplomats & journalists in Beijing that words would leak. This is not the end of Cultural Revolution, anymore. Furthermore, I would expect one or both sides of the coup would leak to the foreign press to try to control the international narrative.
Since the Great China Firewall does not block Balloon-Juice, even if China cut off all VPNs, I should still be able to post here. However, if there are rumors flying about strange happenings in Beijing, & I don’t check in for days because China has shut off internet access to the outside world or I am keeping my head down, then something is definitely happening.
(Or nothing is happening & I am just off traveling in a remote part of China w/o decent mobile service. Haha!)
Captain C
@sdhays:
That may be why they’re getting rusty, janky, ancient rifles and nothing else. And no training on anything more dangerous.
kalakal
For what it’s worth the Cone of Doom has shifted slightly south and Pinellas County is now clear of it. While this makes me feel a bit less stressed ( 24 hours ago the track ran straight across my garden, presumably shortly before crossing Adams judging from the OP) it now means there will very likely be a Cat 4 tracking in at Port Charlotte. If you are anywhere near there please make sure you’re above surge & flood levels. There is up to 2 feet of rain forecast.
Steeplejack
@Steeplejack:
Dialing it back a bit . . .
Maybe the old couple feels they have no place to go, or they can’t afford it, or they just don’t feel up to extraordinary exertions and disruptions at their age. So it can be easier to decide to shelter in place.
I hope they come through okay.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): This post, he has the Patron tweet.
Steeplejack
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Adam last night: “For those wondering, I bought these from UKRPOSHTA’s official Amazon store.”
Jay
Lyrebird
Makes sense.
I keep thinking about a POW interview I read about recently, maybe here. Some guy had been told he could join up for a job and not fight, just drive trucks to transport their dead home or something. He gets put in a tank, and within 5 minutes of entering the battle, the tank in front hits a mine or something, others killed. It sounded like most of those new recruits had no opportunity to surrender, and it sounds like those first waves may be the same, and the zerg rush waves and the tanks do succeed in killing more Ukr defenders. I know I am not saying anything you do not know already.
I hope what you say about bad consequences for the cruel practice of sending protestors to be cannon fodder comes true times ten. I am so glad so many Dagestani and Mongolian people are saying f this, we’re done. Putin is so into genocide, he cannot keep himself to just one group of targets. Sick doesn’t beging tto cover it.
Thanks for adding to our knowledge.
Adam L Silverman
The 11 pm update is posted at the national hurricane center. The track has shifted south again. It is now forecast as coming in straight through Charlotte Harbor as a Cat 4! Landfall estimated at 8 AM Wednesday. Then it’s forecast to cut across the state from SW to east, turn NE, and head out into the Atlantic. From there they currently have it forecast to parallel Florida’s northeast coast and make a second landfall along the Georgia coast. The track might still shift farther south over night.
Jackie
@PaulWartenberg: My daughter and family are also in Polk County. I’m far away in WA state and can do nothing more than watch TWC and pray. I hate feeling helpless. I’m just hoping for the best.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
@Steeplejack:
Thanks!
Another Scott
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Since Adam is probably a little busy now…
You said that you were having trouble with Twitter.
Here’s a news story about UkrPoshta’s official store on Amazon
Came up quickly in a Google search for “UkrPoshta Amazon”.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Golden Bear: That was the Soviet military TTPs in WWII.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Batten down the hatches and be safe
Adam L Silverman
@Captain C: The issue with the non-state actors that are not aligned with a major power, Wagner for instance as an aligned one, and could do this is motive. I don’t see any motive outside of Russia or the mercenaries working for the Russians.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Another Scott:
Thank you!
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I have no idea. It was in one of the update posts three to four weeks ago.
kalakal
@Captain C: Oil field divers regularly operate at down to 200m and I think the record is an insane 500+ m. This is not casual SCUBA diving which goes down to about 40m but saturation diving, you need very specialised gear for that and the sort of support vessel that would be a giveaway on satellites. There are ways to go down 70m and more using SCUBA gear but you either have a very long decompression time or you’re doing a very risky NDL dive, either way your bottom time is going to be very short. An ROV is much more likely
Ruckus
@Tony G:
“It seems like the Russian military (maybe Russian society as a whole) is a collapsing system. Unbelievable.”
Why is it unbelievable? The leader values his citizens at zero. vlad is willing to throw in over a 1/4 of a million of his citizens to an almost sure death for his what, pride? He is the guy that grifts off an entire country and the entire country knows it now, even if they didn’t a few weeks ago. He’s not a leader, he’s a thief. He’s stealing his own country and attempting to do the same to another. It wouldn’t amaze me much at all if a good portion of those men, if they have ammo, will use it on their military leaders to save their own lives. But I also bet most of them won’t have ammo or maybe even an operational weapon. vlad is the Russian version of Shit For Brains, full of himself and his desires, with maybe a 1% concept of reality. He’s a man with power and a need to be feared by everyone. I believe that many in Russia are starting to see that the worst part of Russia today, is it’s leader.
Captain C
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah, you’d have to be well into conspiracyland on your way to cartoonland to get to the point where it would make sense for an unaligned state actor.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Thanks for finding that post!
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: I posted that in an update a few days back.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: I’m just tired and sore from bringing everything inside this AM and chilling. Probably will rack out soon.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I’m over a 100 miles north and west of Port Charlotte. We’re now outside the western edge of the cone of uncertainty. We’ll get wind and rain, but that’s it. I do appreciate the good thoughts.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: I would think that if the Russians wanted to cause an explosion in that pipeline, they could do so easily from inside, without the assistance of a sub.
Adam L Silverman
@Captain C: Prighozin is clearly publicly, and I expect privately, positioning himself as an alternative to Putin, so I could work out a logically consistent argument for his mercs doing it to create more problems for Putin and weaken him, but I think that’s still a stretch. More likely they’d be doing it to advance some tactic of Putin’s as I don’t think Prigozhin wants to challenge Putin, but pick up the pieces should Putin go.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: I suspect you’re right, but this is way out of my area of expertise.
Jinchi
It’s going to be hard for Putin to convince anyone that people in the occupied territories want to become Russian while so many Russians are voting with their feet to be anything else.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Adam L Silverman: I had it bookmarked :D
kalakal
duplicate
kalakal
@Jinchi: His target audience doesn’t need convincing. Wether stooges like Carlson or useful idiots of the left and right they’ll proclaim it to the world as a vindication of Vlad’s invasion. A part of Russian social media propaganda. Some of them will even believe it
Frankensteinbeck
The gas pipes weren’t shipping, so whoever blew them up wanted to make sure they can’t restart shipping. That takes a negotiating chip away from Putin, so if he did it, the only reason I can see is that he thought someone else might turn the pipelines on and wanted to make that impossible.
As for the mobilization…. Zero training, no supplies, I can’t help but think Putin’s staff is still lying to him. The easiest thing to not tell the boss is probably that there are no resources to train or equip the recruits even badly. The Russian military has demonstrated that it doesn’t have the leadership or morale to pull off the tactics that might take advantage of a mob of cannon fodder, but maybe they sold Putin on something like that. Or I suppose the Occam’s Razor answer is simply that Putin yelled that they’ll drown Ukraine in millions of warm bodies like they used to in the USSR, and everybody nodded along because lately Putin has been murdering even the rich and powerful who disagree with him.
@Ruckus:
I find your general description insightful, but I think it’s worth noting that Vlad is vastly smarter than Shit For Brains, but that seems to have been neutralized by him refusing to accept reality. The ability to read a briefing document doesn’t help much if you demand the document be full of lies, or if you read it and then declare you’re going to do what you want despite the facts saying it won’t work.
Ruckus
@Andrya:
You are thinking long term. I understand that vlad has some kind of cancer and he turns 70 in a week and a half. He may not be thinking longish term, he could quite likely be thinking I gotta get this done and soon. He obviously doesn’t give two shits about his citizens, he’s willing to use them as nothing more than fodder for his power. And as that is actually looking rather weak right now, he’ll likely do anything that might help, no matter how desperate or insane. He’s not a normal human, he is a power mad leader that was a KGB officer and I’d bet that gives him special powers of not caring about anyone but himself and possibly those that back him with large sums of money. You know he doesn’t trust anyone and that may be not as stupid as it sounds given how he runs his country.
Chetan Murthy
@Frankensteinbeck: I’d been puzzling over this cannon fodder strategy. B/c FFS one of the original reasons for this was, was to gather in Little Russia and it’s “white” population, in to Mother Russia. B/c Mother Russia is depopulating fast. And now this cannon fodder strategy is guaranteed to kill off *so_ many Russians, send so many fleeing to foreign parts, some never to return. It seems madness.
Your theory, that maybe Putin didn’t intend the cannon fodder strategy, but nobody’s gonna tell him that there’s no equipment, no supplies, no training cadre, no nothing ….. perhaps that’s the explanation for what would otherwise seem … *madness*.
Then again, maybe he’s gone mad. It’s just, I don’t find it useful to assume that world leaders are mad. Like TFG: people say he’s got brain problems, but me, I just see an excellent
salesmangaslightergrifter.Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Good to know.
cintibud
Thank you Adam, good luck and take care
Urban Suburbanite
@Jay: The problem is that Wagner has been ground down in Ukraine, just like every other part of the Russian military. Prigozhin (the oligarch who runs Wagner as well as a good part of the online activity) is currently recruiting in prison yards.
Jinchi
I’ve read a few stories today of Russian officials insisting they weren’t going to ban men of military age from traveling abroad. Then I read another about border officials getting conscription forms to be handed to any men they meet trying to leave the country.
Sort of a modern take on Catch-22.
Captain C
@Ruckus:
Perhaps he’s getting to the point that Hitler was at in 1945 when he was basically, “Fuck the Germans, they let me down and weren’t worthy of me, they deserve to burn.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Jinchi: The Putinist hard authoritarian system’s capacity for governance has always been weak (strong only relative to the Yeltsin years), buttressed for decades by high hydrocarbon prices. Now that it is under extreme duress, all the seams are starting to show.
Andrya
@Ruckus: I basically agree with you with one qualification: putting unwilling (protesters) and untrained cannon fodder into the front line is likely to be catastrophic in the very near term as well as the long term. (Driving a tank with no training? How realistic is that?)
putin strikes me as a desperate gambler who has lost a bet he was sure he would win, and is now betting his watch and shoes in a desperate bet to recover. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto (whom I enormously admire) said that putin was like a poker player who went “all in” when losing. (link) I think that’s pretty accurate.
In 1974, I, a leftist just graduated from UC Berkeley, who had been passionately opposed to the Vietnam war , was hired to work in an aerospace (rocket) company. The colleagues I was assigned to work with were all extremely conservative (though unlike today’s MAGA, not nutty). They were all WW2 and/or Korean War vets (often both). I was impressed that they accepted and mentored me, but even more impressed by their ethic that turning out as soldiers in wartime was just what a responsible citizen does. This type of thinking is of inestimable value to the US, or any country with this type of culture.
By sending criminals, fresh out of prison, and protesters captured by the police, to the front, putin is communicating “military service is for scum”. That’s not going to serve russia well going forward.
Ruckus
@Frankensteinbeck:
Smart only gets one so far if one does not use it well. vlad has proven that he does not always work well in the modern world, he is not a young man (I understand I’m older than he is) although he’s not full geezer. He has been able to get his way for a long time because yes he is smarter than our SFB but his actions are not actually a whole lot better. What does he gain by holding on to Ukraine territory, other than bragging rights? If he gave it up and actually ran his country realistically rather than as a dictator, he could do, be better. But he doesn’t. He’s not well respected by many but he could be. He is feared by many but I think that lead hallo is a bit tarnished and getting worse by the day. The world is getting more crowded because there is only so much land and we are living longer as a species, and populations in the past have grown till they reach untenable for the time and place and at that point the answer is often war. But we all have gotten too good at that and it is actually counter productive but I’d bet vlad has zero clue, mainly because he thinks like a person in power in his country back 3 or 4 generations ago. It’s not a good look for today and it really isn’t sustainable.
Jay
@Urban Suburbanite:
until recently, Wagner was used as “blocking forces”, keeping Rosvguardia and RUA forces from R-U-N-N-I-N-G-O-F-F-T. Compared to “regular” Forces, LPR and DPR forces, their casualties have been until recently, light.
Keep in mind that Wagner tactics reliance on cannon fodder to lead the advance, also requires Wagner forces to “ensure” that the cannon fodder goes forward. Ruthless convicts with nothing to lose, and nothing to care about would be effective blocking forces.
Ruckus
@Captain C:
I think that’s certainly possible. I’d bet he has to get into a lot worse position though to get to the follow adolph stage.
Jay
Ruckus
@Andrya:
I believe we are saying very similar things, just in differing ways. vlad is very, very used to getting what he wants and how he wants it. And that might have worked 50 or more years ago. But the world has changed and quite a bit actually. vlad hasn’t. He strikes me as a KGB officer with a lot more power and the ability to change the course of history. That rarely goes well in the real world over a reasonable length of time. vlad has reached that length of time.
I’ve written here before about my military service and yes we have a different culture in our military, just like we do in our country. Our politics has been made worse by I believe vlad and his attempts to be The World Leader. But that concept has past it’s sell by date a long time ago and it’s catching up to him. I don’t think it will go as good for him as he hopes.
Andrya
@Ruckus: Yes, we substantially agree, but when people agree about a complex and critically important issue, both parties will usually have important tweaks/qualifications. My intent, in my last post, was to communicate my tweaks/qualifications. If you have any (I expect you do) I will read them with great attention and an open mind tomorrow. However, it’s almost 10:30 pm on the West Coast, and I am headed for bed. Bon soir, and Slava Ukraini.
Urza
@Tony G: It does make sense to send untrained conscripts if you think that Russia is now a white nationalist state believing that ethnic Russians are all that matter, and then realize that almost all the conscripts are not ethnic Russian. Its the people that Putin wants rid of and if he can’t win the war why waste the opportunity to either get his dregs of society killed off, or turned into POWs and refugees for other nations to handle. If its not a farmer or someone critical to the military he probably considers them a burden to society, less of them means more for ethnic Russians even during sanctions.
Sister Golden Bear
@Chetan Murthy: Most of the cannon fodder aren’t Russians, but ethnic minorities. (Vlad has been careful so far to minimize recruiting/drafting Russians, especially those in Moscow and St. Petersburg.) So it’s also a way to do ethnic cleansing of said ethic minorities, as well as weakening them in case they decide that maybe being in the Russian empire is no longer in their best interests. It’s a win-win in his eyes.
It does appear he was caught off guard by Russians themselves freaking out over the draft.
Bupalos
@Kent: occam’s razor would like to remind us that shutting off the gas is announced russian policy. And that creating strategic confusion is its SOP.
Matt McIrvin
@Tony G: Someone in an earlier thread linked to an article about how Russian tactical doctrine revolves around units that need a lot of cannon fodder as meat shields, whose purpose is basically to draw fire and die so the artillery knows where to shoot. If those meat shields are people Russia wants to get rid of anyway– ethnic minorities, convicts, dissidents and war protesters– maybe this isn’t obviously stupid from their perspective. It sounds like a bad way to run an army but maybe it’s all they’ve got.
O. Felix Culpa
@Adam L Silverman: Prighozin might be positioning himself for defenestration if he’s not careful. Unless Putin needs him too badly, but practical considerations seem to have flown out the window for Vladdy.
Geminid
A wild story if true. From Ukrainian news site Babel.ua:
The report says that Ukrainian forces intercepted the drones.
Uman is the site of Hasidic leader Nachman of Breslov’s tomb. In past years scores of thousands of Israelis have visited Breslov at the Jewish New Year. Ukraine and Israel discouraged pilgrims this year but it seems that 3,000 or more Israeli Hasidim made the trip.
There are several Babels across the media landscape but Babel.ua seems to be a real news site with a lot of articles on the war. I’m not sure how Babel’s unnamed source in the “special services” caught wind of this “condition” on Iran’s transfer of drones to Russia, but I guess it’s possible.
Jinchi
I wonder what percentage of Russian losses were deliberately killed in action by other Russian soldiers.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: I don’t know the operating range on those drones, but Uman is fairly far from the areas in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts where russian troops are.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t know either. The drones were said to have come from the south. I guess someone has posted the Shahed-136’s specs, including range.
The story about the attempted attacks on Uman is very sensational, and I could see someone floating it for effect.
I think the Iranian drones that attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaik and Khuraish petroleum processing facilities in September, 2019 traveled a good distance. Those drones were very accurate, too.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: According to news site militaryfactory.com the Shahed-136 kamikaze drone has a range of 2000 kilometers. It’s intended to be used in multiples so as to defeat air defenses. A truck-mounted launcher can carry and launch five of these drones. Rocket boosters that drop away helps them take flight. The Shahed-136 has delta wings and a rear mounted pusher propeller.
Bill Arnold
Re the gas pipeline:
Normalization of sabotage of difficult-to-defend long-distance infrastructure is a way to put stress on/or even break a global civilization.
Ocean-floor long-distance communications infrastructure and long-distance electrical transmission (HVDC) are both key to our future civilization.
There has been concern over the last several years about apparent Russian tooling-up for such sabotage, particularly of communications cables, but as noted above, in shallow water it is not solely a nation-state capability.
It would be good if the culprits in this case were convincingly identified and it was made clear that such behavior is not acceptable.
Gin & Tonic
Cowards fleeing russia’s war to neighboring Kazakhstan can’t even say that Ukrainian territory is Ukrainian:
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: I watched that video, and it seemed to me pretty clear that what they were saying is “dude, don’t ask me such questions on camera — we can get killed for the wrong answer don’t you understand anything?”
And sure, one might say they’re cowardly for not staying RU and fighting Putin, but at least, they didn’t seem to me to be supportive of his war aims. Then again, it might be that these are all recent positions.
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: Pretty clear to me that what they were saying is “we don’t give a shit what happens there, as long as it doesn’t involve us personally.”
Chetan Murthy
Oh. My. God. You have to watch this. Oh. My. God.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: G&T, I think you know where I stand on these issues: Russians need to stop their country’s war, and all those who have been silent these last 200+ days are complicit. And certainly these two are complicit. But they’re not as callous as that clip makes out. Watch around 1m53 in this longer clip, where the guy responds about the camera and private conversations.
Again, I’m not excusing these two, nor any Russian who stayed after Feb 24.
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: Long time ago there was a commenter who wrote “the bobblehead translations” or something like that. This is the equivalent.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: shit. it’s a parody. damn.
Bill Arnold
@Bill Arnold:
Sigh. I see that Tucker Carlson has jumped on the (Russian) narrative “The USA Blew Up The Pipeline and Russian Retaliation would be Bad”.
Tucker Giving Russia Ideas How To Fight Back Against Whoever REALLY (America) Blew Up Pipeline (Wonkette, Evan Hurst, September 28, 2022)
The loathsome liar lies and says that Biden said something that Biden literally did not say. And with loathsomely propagandistic intent, does not remind his viewers that Russia is known to engage in false-flag operations coupled with influence operations involving media (and sometimes involving Tucker Carlson).
At any rate, the point that it would be bad to normalize breakage of long-distance infrastructure stands, disregarding TC’s evidence-free attribution and his Russia-inspired (and probably Russia-supplied) musings.
The Pale Scot
@Chetan Murthy:
The majority if the draftees aren’t ‘white’, they are Asiatic.
Gin & Tonic
Somehow I missed Chris Hayes beclowning himself yesterday [emphasis added]:
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
Out of technical curiosity, when China “cuts off VPNs”, do you happen to know whether they also cut off ssh connections — encrypted connections, typically on TCP port 22, usually used for terminal connections, but capable of forwarding much more general types of connections as well?
I ask because ssh can function as a “poor-person’s VPN”, potentially flying under the radar. Blocking it is very high-consequence, because it really stops a lot of essential connectivity among the technical/corporate/university types. Setting up an ssh forwarding arrangement is a little more technical than most people would want to put up with, but not that hard. If this is a viable workaround, I have a host that I could set up a forwarder for you on, and I could help show you how to configure a browser to direct traffic through it after setting up a connection, if you need the assistance.
Chetan Murthy
@The Pale Scot: This is true, and I know that racism is Russia is every bit as bad as in America, maybe worse. But even still, Putin’s dream of Russia Bestride the World Stage depends on having a large population, and that was part of his reason for invading UA. So this “kill off all your young men like it’s 1942” is ….. pretty stupid.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: There’s even the more-general question of whether they cut off all encrypted TCP conns, period. You can run your SSH server on an alternate port (with ease), and people do as yet another little brick in the wall of security. So to make a firewall really work, you’d need to block all TCP conns and make HTTPS requests be decrypted at your firewall (which would defeat the purpose of SSL, but that’s neither here nor there). Any other approach is easy-to-defeat, I would think.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: Chris Hayes is DSA-adjacent so this does not surprise me.
Hayes has been on my shit list ever since he tried to pump air into the Tara Reade story. He still has a lot of fans, though, so his views on the war may get some traction.
Medicine Man
@Gin & Tonic: Funny how the surrender caucus gets louder the harder russia is losing.
Chetan Murthy
@Medicine Man:
we need to ensure Putin can save face
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, changing the port doesn’t really do much to hide an ssh server or an outbound ssh connection. The Chinese Great Firewall admins are too sophisticated to be duped by that one. If they want to shut down ssh they won’t merely block port 22, they’ll block packets with the protocol headers to initiate the connection as well.
So the real question is “does the Great Firewall block ssh when it goes into VPN lockdown mode?” I’d love to know the answer to that one.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: And the same question about SSL, since you can make tunnels with “stunnel”
Another Scott
(via Oryx)
Cheers,
Scott.