There are a lot of Floria peeps here, and a lot more of us who have family and friends in Florida. So let’s use this thread to check-in and share any news we’ve got, and good resources.
As I was putting this post together I thought about the wildfires from last year. Did we really make it through the season without any big wildfires? Or is wildfire season not quite over yet?
Update: I am learning from the comments that wildfire season goes through November, and in some cases, December. And that there have been some big fires, just nothing that has been reported by national media. They must be too busy spreading the lies and talking about the perpetual horserace.
Soprano2
Saw that pic on the NOAA Web site earlier this morning and said “Whoa!”. Everyone in Florida, stay safe.
Tim C.
Short version on western fires is we had a very rainy spring. This gave us a lot of resilience to the hot dry august. Also power companies got really aggressive in cutting power during windy conditions. Both are good, but climate change means what it means here. :(
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
I only just now convinced my sister to leave her friend’s house and get to a shelter. Where’s her friend’s house? Oh, it’s in southern Cape Coral, not far from the river, in a mandatory evacuation zone. No big deal.
No idea if conditions are safe for her to make the drive. I guess we’ll find out.
Idiot.
Tony Jay
Bloody hell, that’s one big, mean, tangerine.
Heads down, tails up, be lucky and safe.
DCrefugee
I’m at home, about 12 miles east of Sarasota. No risk of storm surge here, but flooding instead. Wind has shifted to be out of the east and there’s been moderate rain since dawn. Standing water in my yard will only get deeper. Power has been flickering and some winds gusts are really getting with the program.
I’d have gotten out of here a long time ago if I didn’t have a work-related deadline requiring a high-end computer to complete. I have a whole-house generator for when the power finally fails (F*ck you, FPL!).
Friends on the water in the area have long since evacuated. Worried about other friends inland and just north of Ft. Myers, as well as in Cape Coral/Punta Gorda.
Going to be an interesting day…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
It’s nearly a Category 5 from what I’ve heard on the news. I don’t really have any family or friends who live in FL, but I hope all our commenters and frontpagers, their families, in FL remain safe if they haven’t evacuated
For resources, I found this NWS page about Hurricane safety tips and resources.
HUD Hurricane Assistance and Recovery Resources
NotMax
Awaiting a late package from Amazon which according to USPS has been sitting in Tampa for nearly a week. Guess I can kiss that one goodbye.
kalakal
We’re in Clearwater/ Dunedin in Pinellas, about 5 miles inland from the Gulf, across the bay from Tampa. We’re 80ft up so no risk of storm surge. Just light wind & rain so far.
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): I hope she gets to shelter soon
WaterGirl
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Scary.
dlwchico
I’m hoping we are done with fire season here in Norcal but I don’t know if that bit of rain we got recently is enough to end it.
The Camp Fire was in November and that leaves plenty of time for everything to dry out again. It’s been in the 90’s again here this past week.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@NotMax:
Probably a safe bet.
You’ve had some bad luck with package deliveries lately, haven’t you? I think you’ve mentioned it before
WaterGirl
@kalakal: I have always thought that no matter where you live, there is some form of natural disaster native to the area. Hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, flooding, drought.
edit: wildfires, typhoons, cyclones, tsunamis, high winds, dust storms, landslides, sinkholes, blizzards, wind storms…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA):
Wow, that’s scary! At least you convinced your sister to leave
Cameron
If one can believe AccuWeather (?) reporting on Bayshore Gardens, winds are topping out in the next hour or so with gusts up to 90 mph, then speeds are going to slowly decrease. Rain looks like it will be pretty continuous for the next day or two.
Scout211
My granddaughter and her boyfriend were evacuated from their home for one of the largest fires in California this year, in the last month. It was just under 80,000 acres, east of Sacramento. The last I heard, about 70 homes were damaged or destroyed. It was a big fire but it wasn’t a mega fire, which we have had in the last 2 years. Mega fires are what makes national news these days. Big fires are apparently, not particularly newsworthy.
After over a week, they are back home. The weather has cooled and we’ve even had some rain.
Scout211
The storm track moved easterly overnight. Unfortunately, it is now on a path to pass directly over my sister’s neighborhood in suburban Orlando. I am hoping that the intensity will drop dramatically by then.
Here’s hoping that everyone in Florida is safe and well prepared.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@WaterGirl:
Gotta agree. Where I live, it’s usually pretty boring weather wise, but once in awhile Tornadoes, flash flooding happen. Earlier this month, while I was away on vacation, there was an EF 0 twister that hit part of my town as well as torrential rains that led to bad flooding
It can definitely happen anywhere given a long enough time span. You wouldn’t think earthquakes would hit the Midwest either, but there’s a chance another Big One could hit from the New Madrid fault line like it did 200 years ago
RobertDSC-iPhone 8
I have a friend who lives near Lake Mary. I last heard from her two days ago. She has chickens and other farm animals, so I’m worried for her here in SoCal.
NotMax
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
It runs about 60% as it should, 40 % coo-coo. Used to Amazon shipments going awry; always a pleasant surprise when some of them don’t.
Best one recently was a package I mailed to my Maui address shortly before leaving NY earlier this month, which found its way to Guam. Where it was opened and unpacked, then repacked differently than it had been originally (nothing missing), resealed and eventually did show up here.
Was planning to place a cigar reorder next week from the place in Miami where I get them. Instead called them 10 minutes ago and gave them the order early. We’ll see how that one goes.
Shalimar
Ian is avoiding the panhandle, so no direct effect on me. My brother is moving to the storm area for a year to help with reconstruction, so the most toxic person I have ever met will be a lot further away. Sorry about that, people who will have just went through a hurricane. At least he will be doing some good for a change.
jonas
Fire season is far from over in SoCal. Fall is Santa Ana wind season and you’re not out of the woods, so to speak, until the first substantial rain/snow of winter, which can come as late as December.
jonas
@Scout211:
It’s not a major fire these days unless you can talk about the area burned in terms of *square miles*, not merely acres.
bbleh
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): OMG I hope she got out fast! And whoever else was there with her. That area is forecast (roughly) to get 12 to 15 feet of storm surge. That’s like the ocean rising to 12 feet higher than it was. Oh, while the wind blows at over 100mph. That’s not survivable, except maybe in a submarine or one of those antarctic lifeboats.
It’s like the Mayor of Tampa keeps saying, “hide from the wind, run from the water.”
kalakal
@WaterGirl: You’re right. On the other hand I’ve been through an English earthquake, they do happen, but mostly nobody notices. One time the only story the press could dig up was someone claiming their parrakeet had been scared, but it was alright now.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/23/not-so-great-shakes-a-timeline-of-noticeable-earthquakes-in-the-uk?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
MomSense
My sister bought a place on one of the barrier islands and it looks like Ian will be a direct hit. I asked her if she was worried about climate change/hurricanes and she wasn’t.
She was supposed to leave this weekend for two weeks there. I don’t think she will be going unless it is to inspect the damage.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
My wife has a good friend in Bradenton, right next to Sarasota. Status unknown, she’s trying to get an update.
Matt McIrvin
@WaterGirl: Here in northern MA it’s blizzards and floods. We picked our location pretty well with regard to the second threat.
We get the occasional hurricane but it’s not that often compared to the rest of the East Coast, and the Cape and the islands usually get the worst of it.
frosty
@WaterGirl: Not in the mid-Atlantic*.
Hurricanes – played out when they get here -a couple inches of rain, some wind
Tornados – One or two a year maybe? Rare.
Earthquakes – Nope. No volcanoes either.
Flooding – Occasionally serious for low-lying areas along the rivers and the Chesapeake Bay. For people on higher ground, not so much.
Drought – I remember a bad one from the 60s. Plenty of rain these days.
* You forgot ice storms. They shut down transportation and bring power outages that can last a few days.
NotMax
Quote from the hurricane (a category 4, if spotty memory serves) episode of Fliipper:
“Are you telling me that hurricanes are worse than an earthquake?”
“No-o-o… just a lot longer.”
Doug R
@Scout211: I think the storm realized where Mar-a-lardo was and tried to turn that way.
Montanareddog
@WaterGirl: And for the UK-based jackals, Tories
NotMax
@Doug R
And Dolt 45 will put in an insurance claim for “a bajillion dollars in damages.”
//
Anonymous At Work
Davie area is clear and no rain. Hollywood has been drenched but no power or Internet issues from the storm. We had a few Tornado warnings with the request to seek shelter (2 am before a big 8:30 am meeting? Kiss my grits!) but nothing doing.
NotMax
@NotMax
#29 fixed. 4 a.m. coupled with fumble fingers not a good combo.
Quote from the hurricane (a category 4, if spotty memory serves) episode of Fliipper:
“Are you telling me that hurricanes are worse than an earthquake?”
“No-o-o… just a lot longer.”
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@WaterGirl: Here in Athens (Greece), we get somewhat frequent low-level earthquakes (and occasional significant ones; ask me how I know that when an earthquake has an epicenter close by and near the surface, it sounds like a sharp explosion), summer wildfires (enough that the Hellenic Air Force invested in a bunch of Canadair water-bomber flying boats), and occasional flooding from rain storms (storm drains in the vicinity of Athens are a joke). Oh, yeah, and we also get occasional Sahara dust storms.
No hurricanes that I can recall in my decade-plus here, though.
A Good Woman
I have a friend who winters in Boynton Beach. She reports tornado warnings, but seems otherwise unconcerned.
My brother lives in St. Augustine. He doesn’t talk much to me, but reviewing local weather it looks like wind and rain for him. He is inland a few miles and away from the waterways so storm surge issues appear unlikely to affect him.
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
@bbleh: She just texted me, saying the roads were flooded and she can’t get to a shelter. I don’t know what’s actually happening with conditions there, so I don’t know if she can still get to a local shelter and she’s just ratcheting up the drama for attention, or if she’s truly stuck.
The Cape Coral police department posted on their Facebook page four hours ago that emergency operations are suspended, and people have to shelter in place, so it doesn’t look encouraging.
Matt McIrvin
…Not that we’re immune from hurricanes: Hurricane Carol in 1954 apparently blew down part of the roller coaster at Canobie Lake Park (now known as the Yankee Cannonball), which is pretty impressive since that’s inland of us. It really chewed up coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island.
eclare
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): OMG….
kalakal
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): That’s very worrying
Amalthea1
I’m in rural Hillsborough, just west of Polk County. We’re about to bug out and stay with cousins in town. No real threat of flooding out here, and we’re well inland, but it’s just better to be around family. Plus, we feel like in town there’s a better chance of the power staying on. It just flickered for the first time. I wasn’t around for Irma, but apparently we got lucky and never lost power. Hoping that lucky streak holds
ETA: I hope Mingobat’s friend is able to find somewhere safe ASAP!
JaneE
In CA, fire season has gone year round. At least until we get some real rains the way we did 50 years ago. On the east side of the sierras we get too many dry storms that don’t wet things enough to keep lightening fires from popping up all over. Mostly they just let them burn themselves out unless they are near structures. The winds are stronger now than they used to be, and it seems more windy most of the time. Bad for fires.
J.
The spouse and I moved full-time to Sanibel Island, aka, the eye of the hurricane, just over a year ago after being seasonal there for many years and spending most of the pandemic there. (It’s where my mystery series takes place.) We survived many bad storms and were going to stick this one out, but when the track changed and Lee County issued a mandatory evacuation and many of friends and neighbors decided to bolt, we decided to leave too. The problem was, where to go? Most of Florida was/is in the cone, and there wasn’t a hotel room to be had for hundreds of miles. Plus we have two cats. We were finally able to find a relative on the East Coast with an empty house who agreed to let us stay there, even though she’s allergic to cats. It took five hours of pouring rain and traffic, but we made it to safety — well, except for the tornado warnings. Just praying our little island and friends are okay. Ironically (?), we lived through at least half a dozen major snowstorms and hurricanes when we lived in Connecticut, losing power for a week at a time. But this is different.
Anyway, thanks for letting me share. It’s been a harrowing 24 hours, and I feel sick. Though again, I feel very fortunate to have found refuge.
WaterGirl
@Cameron: Wow, 90 MPH beats the crap out of 155 MPH
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@WaterGirl: Here in SE Michigan we get the occasional ice storm, deep snowfall, and the rare tornado, but even those events aren’t all that devastating. It’s really pretty boring around here. Boring is good!
zhena gogolia
@J.: I hope all will be well.
WaterGirl
@Scout211: You’re right, I had no idea. Fucking national news media!
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: After Hurricane Camille killed 200 people on the Gulf coast in 1969, rain from it caused flooding that killed 150 people in Nelson County, Virginia.
This could be a problem soon along the west side of the Appalachian Mountains. Ian’s projected path will take it over eastern Tennessee and Kentucky.
WaterGirl
@jonas: Thanks for the education. Fingers crossed for the rest of fire season.
JPL
@J.: Sanibel and Captiva are beautiful. I hope your abode is still standing when you return.
eclare
@J.: So glad to hear that you and the kitties are ok! Stay safe.
WaterGirl
@kalakal: “Parakeet was scared” made me laugh. But now I feel bad for the parakeet.
J.
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): We live(d?) on Sanibel and have been watching the live traffic cameras and weather report. I think she’ll be okay if she left this morning and went to a shelter in one of the lower flood zones. (We finally evacuated yesterday afternoon after our neighbors bugged out and headed east. But several of our neighbors are camping out at hotels and shelters in Fort Myers near the airport.)
J.
@zhena gogolia: Me too!
WaterGirl
@Montanareddog: Headline for a post: Tories Considered A National Disaster
kalakal
@J.: Glad you made it ok. A really tough journey but you made the right choice. 12-15ft surge on Sanibel? Doesn’t bear thinking about
J.
@JPL: Me too! We have hurricane windows and doors and a new roof but the house isn’t elevated. So we may be underwater. Fingers crossed it will be okay.
J.
@eclare: Thank you!
WaterGirl
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: I forgot to include ice storms and dust storms!
Aren’t you “blessed” with multiple options for natural disaster.
cope
@WaterGirl: You forgot blizzards and volcanoes, landslides and floods and sinkholes and tsunamis.:)
Sitting and waiting here just north of Mouse World. We’re anticipating an eventual loss of power, not so much from high winds per se but from soggy trees and saturated ground that will facilitate downed trees and tree limbs which will in turn take power lines with them.
Florida rarely runs power lines underground because of the high water table so there you go.
WaterGirl
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Holy shit. Hopefully she can get to some shelter somewhere.
J.
@kalakal: Yeah, that’s what scares me. And our house isn’t elevated and is on a man-made lake. Though the lake’s supposed to drain when we get heavy rain. Hoping for the best but…
Matt McIrvin
@frosty: My family in Virginia seem to get more trouble from flooding than anything else–and associated extended power outages. But they also had a significant earthquake in 2011, very unusual (followed not long after by a lot of flooding from the remnants of a tropical storm that had hit Louisiana).
WaterGirl
@Amalthea1: Even worse, it’s her sister.
SiubhanDuinne
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA):
Oh Karen ☹️
Every hope for her safety.
Almost Retired
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
My wife was just in touch with her sister in Bradenton. Wind and rain, but they still have electricity.
WaterGirl
@J.: Glad you found refuge and are safe.
My sister – who gets one of your Sanibel books every year from me for her birthday – is supposed to leave for Sanibel in about a week.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: IIRC Milwaukee is the US city that is most safe from natural disasters.
WaterGirl
Really hoping that everyone stays safe and that all of your homes come out of this okay.
cope
@WaterGirl: By next week, the shelling should be spectacular. I’ve been checking webcams from up and down the Gulf shore. Sadly, most of them in Sanibel are not online right now.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Interesting.
WaterGirl
@cope:
Silver lining.
raven
My friends have a house in Ft Meyers but the heat and humidity drove them to buy a place in Brevard, NC. He’s kicking himself for not having the house prepped but is more worried about water that broken glass and the roof. They left a car in Florida when they went up to Brevard this spring and they don’t want to go down there with their dogs so I offered one of my vehicles.
J.
@WaterGirl: Aw, thanks for getting her my books! I hope we both make it to Sanibel next week. (FYI the new book just came out.)
eclare
A friend just sent a text to me with a screenshot. Charley could fit inside the eye of Ian.
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
@J.: I’m sorry you’re going through this, but glad you and the beasts will be safe. Mr. Mingobat and I were considering moving to Cape Coral about 20 years ago — proximity to Sanibel and Captiva was a huge selling point for us. We love it there.
My sister says she’s “working on” getting to safety. People in my family are addicted to drama and attention, to the point where they’ll create bad situations for themselves just for the sympathy. So I don’t know what’s really happening with her right now — is she stuck, or is she exaggerating just to be manipulative? Normally I ignore her, but this one’s rough.
Anyway, thank you, everyone, for the kind thoughts. I’m hoping she’s just crying wolf. It’s infuriating that I don’t know whether she is.
raven
@J.: It reminds me of the Irma down there. Our friends took off from Ft Meyers, got to Gainesville and it looked like it was going to move offshore so they went back. Then it turned again and they took off again. It took them 32 hours to get to Athens and they stayed with us for a week with three dogs and two cats!
kalakal
@WaterGirl: It looked pretty chirpy in the photograph as I remember.
British earthquakes are the source of a million jokes , this is a pretty typical set
https://www.iflscience.com/a-devastating-earthquake-hit-england-and-the-brits-reactions-are-typically-hilarious-48224.
On the down side floods are common & nasty there
Rocks
No wildfires? Au contraire! Hermit Peak-Calf Creek wildfire on the eastern side of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains in New Mexico, April to June 2022. Burned over 300,000 acres, devastated entire communities. Worse still, we had an earlier and wetter monsoon season than usual, and because the fire destroyed the water retention properties of the soil, resulted in horrific flash floods full of debris from the burned forests. A total nightmare.
raven
The tourists are still hangin in Key West!
CaseyL
I talked to my Mom just now – she’s in Pompano Beach – and she says all they have is wind and rain. She’s expecting some power outage, and is worried about a couple of big trees between her condo building and the next one over, but nothing that would directly affect her unit. Fingers crossed!
Annie
My cousin lives in Central Florida, about an hour’s drive north of Orlando. She says they are getting a lot of rain right now, but this is just the start of the storm. She’s got her house sandbagged; no evac orders for her area, so she’s staying put.
The last hurricane, her dog decided he needed to go out just as the worst winds hit.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
Really? Wonder why that is
WaterGirl
@J.: She is on book 4. I see that you have 9 now!
JMG
The winter nor’easters can be very destructive on Cape Cod, and they are, unfortunately, an annual event (s). Last really big hurricane here was the one in 1938. If such a storm were to hit again, we’d be a disaster for months, maybe years, because there are so many more people here. It also doesn’t feel great to contemplate an evacuation of a place that has 10-20 mile traffic jams every beautiful summer Sunday afternoon.
WaterGirl
@Rocks: Fucking national media would rather cover bullshit shiny objects than actual news.
Sorry to hear about the wildfires.
JohnC
Some Sanibel webcams
Definitely storm surge happening in some views, and some other cams are down, such as the Causeway.
Matt McIrvin
@JMG: Yeah, the fact that our big storms are usually extratropical cyclones doesn’t make them any less rough on the Cape.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): No hurricanes, typhoons, or tsunamis. Out of the range of wildfires. Lake Michigan doesn’t flood badly. Just outside of the tornado belt. Not on a major earthquake fault line.
opiejeanne
@WaterGirl: Santa Ana winds can start in the spring, just after the first couple of lovely days; used to be early April but could be earlier now. You’d get the first sunny but mild days, and within about 48 hours you’d get these hot dry winds roaring down through the passes from the desert, stirring up lots of dust.
It’s true, fire season is year-round in California and has been for about 15 years, if not longer.
kalakal
Just had our first power blip.
General note to non Floridians. Power, comms etc go down really easily in Florida, everythings above ground. So if you lose contact with family, friends etc don’t panic. With Irma, I lost power, cell & landline for nearly a week
zeecube
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Hope she finds high ground, as high as possible. In Katrina, a neighbor who waited too long to evacuate managed to get as far as the top of a nearby bridge, and had to wait out the storm. Miserable experience but he survived. His house washed away in the storm surge and high wind.
Ruckus
@dlwchico:
Hotter down south, in the tropical paradise that SoCal isn’t. Last few days right at 100, today supposed to be 99 and then falling into the balmy upper 80s for a few days. It’s 66 with 85% humidity now. I think the humidity is the fun part, not used to that level if you are a long term resident.
WaterGirl
@kalakal: Just from the comments here, it begins to feel like the storm might be picking up.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
All true, though I think blizzards and cold weather could still be an issue, though nowhere near as bad those other things. If it wasn’t for the cold weather, sounds like it’d be perfect!
RaflW
My partner’s friend who lives in a highrise in Tampa, right on the bay, I guess posted a photo of the water rushing out. Seems the lucky city/region remains lucky.
Not so for Ft Meyers, etc. What a monster.
NotMax
@JMG
That 1938 storm was a doozy. At the time, people in the path had little or no warning of what was coming (emphasis added).
zeecube
@Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA): Hope she finds high ground, as high as possible. In Katrina, a neighbor who waited too long to evacuate managed to get as far as the top of a nearby bridge, and had to wait out the storm. Miserable experience but he survived. His house washed away in the storm surge and high wind.
@J.: Glad you made the right decision. I have lived through Camille and Katrina. Getting away from the coast is why I am still here.
raven
@zeecube: We just watched “Five Days in Memorial”. I’d read all about it but, damn, the dramatization is brutal.
Cameron
I realize it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future, but I’m not sure AccuWeather is even trying. Earlier this a.m., it was sustained winds in the 70 mph range, gradually lowering over the afternoon. Now it’s sustained winds of 137 mph until 8 or 9 this evening. Kind of a big difference. Maybe I expect too much.
raven
@RaflW: My buddy got a report from the dog park peeps in Ft Meyers and they got their dogs out too poop early this morning!
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Cold weather and blizzards aren’t natural disasters.
Matt McIrvin
@Cameron: They’re almost certainly just repeating the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts, and predicting how a hurricane’s intensity will vary right around landfall is extremely difficult. Earlier predictions seemed to show it weakening from major-hurricane status just before landfall but that’s not happening in the current predictions.
Burnspbesq
Historically, many of the worst fires in SoCal have come in October and November. The Santa Ana winds usually start in September, and when they’re blowing all bets are off.
There’s a great song by the 80s LA band Wall of Voodoo about hot winds blowing from the north.
zeecube
@raven: I hear it’s a good series but I cannot watch it. Still “too soon” for me. (The final scene in “Benjamin Button” made me teary, and that was make-believe.)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@NotMax:
I remember you talking about the package that went to Guam; glad it made it to you eventually.
I guess living on an Island complicates it I guess?
raven
@zeecube: It’s really intense. “Treme” did a pretty good job with the aftermath but not the actual storm. Our friends have a place on Burgundy and, besides the spoiled food, they did ok but that’s the Quarter.
Matt McIrvin
@Omnes Omnibus: Blizzards can be, especially if they hit without adequate warning and catch a lot of people on the highways. That was the biggest problem in the Northeastern Blizzard of 1978, which killed about 100 people. The accumulated snow can also crush buildings.
Ella in New Mexico
I pray all the good folks in Florida and Puerto Rico can hold on and survive this latest deluge without any severe injuries or casualties.
Also:
New Mexico had it’s worst wildfire in history this summer that took months to contain and has resulted in devastating losses to families living in it’s path, severe watershed damage and an entire small city struggling with drinking water safety and an entire small city struggling with drinking water safety. We also had multiple naturally ignited fires across the state this summer.
Fortunately, because of climate change weirdness, we’ve also had the longest and wettest monsoon season in the state which probably won’t change next year’s risks but did help put the last of the fires out.
Like the folks in Hurricane Alley, the west is now going to have to deal with major devastion annually thanks to global warming.
J.
@WaterGirl: They make a nice Christmas present. :-)
NotMax
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Stuff happens.
Mine is not to reason why, mine is to roll with the punches.
;)
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I got a little damp in unexpected drizzle once, does that count?
NotMax
@Matt McIrvin
Photos and stories from the blizzard of 1888 remain astounding.
Paul in KY
@JPL: Hope they are soon loitering at Blind Pass again!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@WaterGirl:
@Omnes Omnibus:
Blizzards can be pretty serious business, especially if you’re in a car stuck in the snow
Hoppie
Checking in here from Hillcrest, San Diego. We’re under a major heat advisory until this evening… checks forecast… going to be 83. Also too, very dense fog this morning.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): FFS, no one said that any place was entirely safe.
WaterGirl
@J.: My sister is traditional all the way. Your books are for birthday, there is something else I get her every year for Christmas, starting long before I knew about your books! :-)
WaterGirl
@Hoppie: We do live in interesting times. No wonder that’s a curse!
Gin & Tonic
@NotMax: The Whale Rock Lighthouse in Narragansett Bay was washed away in the 1938 hurricane. The assistant lighthouse keeper’s body was never found (the keeper had gone ashore for supplies the day before and couldn’t return due to the storm.) The lighthouse was never rebuilt, but you can still see Whale Rock if you’re cruising the bay.
Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)
@Annie:
That’s our little terrier mix, Muppet. We taught her to ring a bell when she needs to go out, and now whenever there’s a nasty thunderstorm, we hear
RUMBLE
BOOM
CRACK
BOOM
*ding*
She’s a strange girl.
eclare
@WaterGirl: What are the books? Always looking for suggestions. Going to pick up the Jolloff Rice one on Fri.
kalakal
@WaterGirl: I’m getting that impression. The eyewall is already partly on shore, Ft Myers and the barrier islands will be being hit. Up here in Tampa we’ve been luck with the timing as it’s low tide. Around Port Charlotte they’re guestimating a 20 ft surge!!!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
That wasn’t my point? I was just making conversation, not trying to fight with you. Sorry.
geg6
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
My John’s daughter and grand daughter live in Bradenton. He has been trying to contact her, but is getting no answer. We can only hope they got out and are safe.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
I find Balloon Juice to be a safe place.
I wonder where the safest place in the physical world is.
Mike in NC
Will never ever set foot in Florida again. Hoping to read that Micro Rubio, Batboy Scott, and Ron DeSatan get sucked up into a funnel cloud and are never heard from again.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: With Mummy and Daddy of course.
raven
@Baud: A Winnebago !
WaterGirl
@eclare:
Sanibel Mystery Series
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
Sometimes I don’t, honestly
zeecube
@raven: Our house actually survived Katrina storm itself, but not levy breach and aftermath. Snuck back into city while still under lockdown to assess damage. Very eerie. No birds / no chirping. The only chirping sound was fire alarms still running on battery. Wildlife nonexistent. Quite stinky too. What I call the “Katrina smell”, rather musty, a combination of sea water, rotten food, VOCs / chemicals and mold. A unique scent.
Years later, I went to a Halloween haunted house that was inside an old mortuary near the cemeteries. That same smell hit me when we went down to the basement. That’s how I knew the basement had flooded during Katrina. Apparently, hard to get that smell out.
(Is Ian giving me flashbacks? Yes, yes it is…)
kalakal
@Baud: A padded cell. It’s impossible to hurt yourself
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
@Omnes Omnibus:
I suppose six feet under is safe, but I think I’ll deal with the risks of being above ground for a bit longer, thanks. ;-)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Omnes Omnibus:
Like, I wasn’t trying to criticize you or anything. Maybe it’s just the way I come across…
eclare
@WaterGirl: Thanks!
Cameron
@Mike in NC: They could go to Oz and sub for lion and scarecrow and woodsman.
Andrew
Sarasota resident, evacuated to Gainesville. I live in Zone B and mandatory evacuation was ordered yesterday. I’m safe, the cats are safe, but I’m very worried for the future of my city.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: Don’t know, but I’ve heard speculation that the Great Lakes region, broadly defined, is the part of the US with the least to fear from climate change.
J R in WV
@WaterGirl:
Here we have maps where landslides are prone AND flood plains in the low-lying areas. Yay. So I guess I’m saying you left out landslides…
Tornadoes are pretty rare, in my lifetime I only recall 2 or 3 events that did any damage. Falling trees can be dangerous if you live in the woods, like us. And a drought / fire could be really bad, though we usually are too damp for fires to “crown” into the trees.
My parents were snowbirds, and had a nice condo in Osprey, a tiny village north of Venice, FL. They were the Intercoastal Waterway and a barrier island away from the Gulf. Going to be really tough there, I suspect. Best of luck to all the FLA juicers!!!
SiubhanDuinne
Welp. It occurred to me that it had been a long time since I last talked with either of my late ex-husband’s siblings (both in Lehigh Acres, near Fort Myers), so I finally tracked down a phone number for my former BIL. He’s my age (80); his sister (my XSIL) is a few years older and in frail health. Have been cordial but never even slightly close to them.
Long story short, I reached BIL’s GF (had never even met or talked with her) and it turns out BIL Perry died about two years ago* and Elsa, his sister, followed a few months later*. Neither of them had any kids, nor did Ken and I, so suddenly there’s this entire big chunk of my life that no longer has anyone to remember it with me. I’m not mourning or grieving; I just feel rather knocked off balance.
*It didn’t occur to me to ask, but if Perry and Elsa both died in 2020, I have to wonder whether either or both of them had Covid.
eclare
@Andrew: Glad you and the kitties are ok. The worry is so hard.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Could you please stop apologizing and worrying about offending everyone? If you say something the matter is actually offensive or hurtful, then apologize. If not, you have to accept the people will disagree with you and sometimes even be annoyed with you or what you say.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@SiubhanDuinne:
That’s pretty rough. Even though you didn’t know them well, it can still hit a person like a ton of bricks when you learn someone you used to know died
eclare
@SiubhanDuinne: That would be unsettling news to process, a whole part of your life just disappeared. And with that timing, I would definitely suspect Covid.
kalakal
@Andrew: Good to hear you and the Kitties are safe. Try to get some rest
eclare
@WaterGirl: Those look good! Are the books kind of like the “A is for Alibi” series but in a different setting? I loved those.
kalakal
In the list of natural disasters have we included lightning? We’re big on that around Tampa. I realise that it tends to be a bespoke* experience unlike, say an earthquake, which is more of a wholesale event but it’s both devastating & utterly terrifying.
*Unless it starts a fire
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Minor correction: “didn’t know very well” should instead be “weren’t very close to”
Victor Matheson
Well, my parents’ house burned down in the huge Boulder fires this year. But they occurred in the middle of the winter, not in fire season at all, so it’s hard to count them as part of the fire season.
(Technically, it was my parents’ former house as they had just moved out after 50 years in the house into a retirement community. Almost no way they would have escaped the fire had they still been there. And to be fair, had I known I could have avoided weeks of moving and 7 dumpsters of disposal from the house by simply burning everything down, I might have taken that deal!)
C Stars
Detroit, anybody? Natural disasters, or mainly human-made disasters? Not that I am considering a life-altering, uprooting, traumatic move to a new city or anything…
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@geg6: My wife heard from her friend. They evacuated. She says 80-100 mile winds till Saturday morning!?
J R in WV
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yeah, but the glaciers could return any year now… ;~)
Origuy
The Oakland Hills firestorm started October 19, 1991. I remember coming back from an airshow in Salinas and seeing the smoke from south San Jose. The fire destroyed more than 3,000 homes.
We got some rain last week, enough to help a little.
trollhattan
Oddly, Fox News guy sums things up well here.
https://twitter.com/MikeSington/status/1574811254723473410?cxt=HHwWhMCjocKf7dorAAAA
SiubhanDuinne
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Thank you very much, Goku. Yes, they were always there. In the background, but always part of the human landscape of my memories. The one person I wish I could share this with is my own sister, who died in that same time frame. She was my maid of honour, and Perry was Ken’s best man. Perry was devastatingly good looking, and my sister Joyce fell for him like the proverbial ton of bricks. Couldn’t take her eyes off him all evening.
trollhattan
@Origuy:
The day after my swimming pool was filled with ash, including identifiable bits of paper, and we’re a good sixty miles east of where the Oakland Firestorm occurred. Seem to recall it hitting during a ’49ers game and the cameras kept pulling back to show the hills in the background.
Those poor bastards were trapped, as anybody who’s driven the narrow winding streets will understand.
dlwchico
On one hand, a hurricane like Ian seems scarier than the wildfires we have here in California. It’s possible to stop a fire, or at least deflect it or protect some places but you can’t stop a hurricane.
On the other hand, the speed of the fires makes them scarier. We can see the hurricanes for days beforehand, usually.
I know a couple that lived in Paradise when the Camp Fire hit. The wife was sitting on the toilet and felt heat on her back. She looked out the back window and saw fire. The husband got in their car, she got in their large camper van that was parked in their garage. As she pulled out of the garage she saw in the rear view mirror that the garage was already totally engulfed in fire.
SiubhanDuinne
@eclare:
Thank you. Yes, it seems likely, especially with Perry. Elsa always had a million things wrong with her, medically speaking, so it could have been anything. Including Covid, of course.
C Stars
@SiubhanDuinne: I’m sorry about that news. It is strange to lose someone who you share specific memories or a particular time of life with, even if you weren’t that close.
I just found out last night that a teacher who both of my kids had for 3rd grade died suddenly of a heart attack at home last week. My youngest is in 4th grade so we interacted with this teacher recently, and it’s been a really sobering event for the whole family.
trollhattan
@dlwchico: Have an acquaintance who survived the Paradise Fire. Tried to drive away but was caught in the traffic backup (two escape roads only) so he parked his truck in the middle of a lot, walked to the front of the jam and thumbed a ride to Chico. His phone had enough juice to call friends and leave an “I’m alive” message before it went dead. They got the message before learning about the fire, so that was interesting.
Saw the smoke from Sacramento while going to the office, read up on the incident when I got there and the rapid expansion of the fire from a few acres to tens of thousands, was like nothing we’d seen. Super windy that morning, of course. In more “typical” weather we would have had several fall storms by the date, but that’s not the way things are any longer.
Shalimar
Listening to DeSantis. That was strange and sounded like potential massive fraud. He said they would file federal disaster declarations for all 67 counties.
The roughly 20 counties in the Panhandle, all heavily Republican, are not going to have any damage from this. Why do I think DeSantis might funnel money from heavily-damaged counties that don’t support him to not-at-all-damaged counties that do?
SiubhanDuinne
@C Stars:
That’s a tough loss, too — for all of you, but especially for your youngsters who had recently been that person’s students. I’m sorry.
Rob
This morning’s video update on Ian from hurricane scientist Levi Cowan. It is probably his last on this storm. It’s kind of technical, but I have figured out some stuff from the graphics and/or repetition in his videos. He just posted it in about an hour ago.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1575160349434970112
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWWOqTnbZ54
I hope the best for everyone in its path.
Burnspbesq
@trollhattan:
The capriciousness of fires also makes them scary. In the Canyon 2 fire in 2017, Peters Canyon Park on the Orange – Irvine border was wiped out, but the condos across Canyon View Ave. on the north side of the park were untouched.
raven
@Shalimar:
Generally, the PDA is completed prior to the submission of the Governor or Tribal Chief Executive’s request for a major disaster declaration. However, when an obviously severe or catastrophic event occurs, the Governor or Tribal Chief Executive’s request may be submitted prior to completion of the PDA.1 In such circumstances the major disaster will generally be limited to Public Assistance Categories A and/or B (which may be further limited to Direct Federal Assistance (DFA)) and Hazard Mitigation Assistance. For high-impact events where the level of damage to residences is empirically overwhelming, the declaration may also include Individual Assistance. Additional forms of assistance may be added at a later date, pending the completion of PDAs.
lurker dean
good thoughts to betty and all the BJers in the storm.
StringOnAStick
It seems like the media is bored with wildfire stories anymore unless they burn up a bunch of structures and there’s a high death toll. WSW of us is a fire that last week was up to over 122,000 acres, but in a wilderness area though local lake resort businesses have been evacuated for weeks and there’s been air quality days in the 400’s. No big cities close by, so no major national coverage.
dlwchico
@trollhattan: I took the dog out to use the bathroom that morning and this was the view looking toward Paradise from Chico.
https://i.imgur.com/1IVov9d.jpg
zhena gogolia
@C Stars: We found out last spring in casual conversation at a dinner party that our beloved primary-care physician of 20 years, who had retired and we were picturing enjoying travel with his wife, had died of a brain tumor in 2021 at the age of 64. It was a bombshell. I still haven’t gotten over it.
WaterGirl
@Andrew: All very worrisome. Glad you are safe, though!
RaflW
The surge is hitting Naples as high tide is arriving. NOAA shows 9.05 ft at last reading, when the predicted (ie non hurricane) tide at the same time woulda been 2.77 ft.
Just devastating.
WaterGirl
@eclare: I loved the whole A is for Alibi series, too!
C Stars
@SiubhanDuinne:
@zhena gogolia:
Thank you. Yes, this teacher was in his early 60s too. It seems far too young. Brain tumors and heart attacks—they don’t mess around.
For some reason this makes me really want to schedule my third Covid booster.
C Stars
@RaflW: This is just nightmare material. NINE feet?
WaterGirl
@eclare: I think you want to read them in order. Maybe J. will see your comment and give a fuller description of the books.
I believe she is in our AUTHORS list that’s in the footer – I bet that has a link to her website where you can learn more.
copied from Our Authors in the footer.
Jennifer L. Schiff / J.
· Sanibel Island Mystery Series (cozy mysteries)
edit: that link no longer works, but I googled:
Sanibel Island Mysteries
Yes, they are all the same main character. Here is book 1:
A SHELL OF PROBLEM
When investigative reporter Guinivere Jones finds herself out of a husband and a job, she decides to leave dreary New England and move to sunny Sanibel Island, Florida, the seashell capital of the United States. But all is not sunshine and seashells on Sanibel.
It looks like all 9 books can be purchased as a set on Kindle.
JPL
@SiubhanDuinne: That is so sad.
JPL
@WaterGirl: The link initially didn’t work for me, but I removed the back slash and wordpress.
HOME | Sanibel Mysteries (sanibelislandmysteries.com)
Her house is taking a beating, and I hope it is still standing.
trollhattan
Meanwhile, lacking a storm to blame the pound’s value on, Tories march ahead smartly in their campaign to destroy the UK economy whilst enriching their friends and selves. You go, you Reagan-era Republican wannabe gobshites. Posh and stupid, is still stupid.
WaterGirl
@JPL: Fingers, toes and everything crossed for J. and for everyone affected by this storm.
My sister just got notice that their reservation in Sanibel is cancelled, so I think they must be getting hit much harder than expected.
Someone on BJ yesterday thought Sanibel would surely be cleaned up in time for their trip next week, so yes, I think they are getting hammered.
Very sad for everyone affected.
eclare
@WaterGirl: I always read series in order, whether it’s A is for Alibi or the Harry Bosch mysteries. I’ll check my library! Thanks!
ETA> Love the “cozy mystery” description.
sab 🐕
@Matt McIrvin: In Omnes’ part of the country people often have roof rakes to get the snow off. I still have mine from living in western Michigan in the 1980s. Pretty useless in Ohio since I’m not in the snow belt.
sab 🐕
@NotMax: You guys had volcanoes and lava flows. That’s hard to beat in the natural disaster competition.
sab 🐕
@Matt McIrvin: Or any other kind of change.//
Martin
The thing with fire season here in CA is that yes, it’s still early in the season – Aug-Nov. But what often drives the big fires are Santa Ana/Diablo winds. This is the result of a high pressure system sitting over the Great Basin in Utah that pushes hot/dry desert down through the various passes in the CA mountain ranges. Those hot/dry (single digit humidity) winds strip vegetation of their surface moisture and allow fires to start and the winds – up to 100MPH in the passes (I lived in one of those passes for a while) – can push that fire such that it jumps a mile at a time.
Those winds don’t usually happen in summer but in fall.
The upside this year is that we got some pretty widespread unexpected summer rain. The underlying mechanic that has been making fires worse here the last few years is that the latent moisture in the ground and in trees/plants has been falling due to the persistent drought. It’s one of those things that you can’t really see/don’t notice but as the vegetation gets slightly drier *everywhere* the fire risk jumps up disproportionately *everywhere*. That’s what happened 2 years ago when a dry lightning storm crossed Northern California and lightning strikes that might have caused a very localized fire instead caused fires that quickly spread.
The other problem is that the scope of these fires is related to how stretched our fire resources get. You get half a dozen fires in a day and every one of them will grow considerably larger than if you get half a dozen fires spread over 2 weeks. That’s amplified if the fires start on federal land (half of the forests in CA are federally managed) because the federal firefighters are really depleted, largely due to low pay.
Martin
@StringOnAStick: Yeah, we’d all be better served if the media covered lower population areas as well. Western Alaska got really fucked up by a tropical storm but got almost no coverage because the population there is low. But when 100% of a small community is affected, that’s still newsworthy even if only a few thousand people live there.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Also, the Milwaukee river – the waterway the city is on, has a pretty small watershed (this is common along the US side of the Great Lakes – most of the rivers that feed them, other than the ones in MI, really only extend for a few miles beyond the lakeshore until you’re in the Ohio/Mississippi river drainage area. So flooding from overflowing rivers is less likely. Finally, being to the West of the Lakes, given that the prevailing winds come from the West, they get less lake effect snow so heavy snowfalls are less likely there than to the East (MI, upstate NY, parts of PA and OH and of course parts of Ontario).
I grew up in Grand Rapids, MI, which is also not an area particularly prone to natural disasters though heavy snowfalls are common. They usually don’t do any serious structural damage though – so long as you don’t get caught out in them in a car you just have to wait for them to clear the streets and you’re fine.
JPL
@WaterGirl: We took several family vacations to Captiva, and I hope something remains.
Steeplejack
@trollhattan:
kalakal
@trollhattan: Danny Blanchflower says it best
https://twitter.com/i/status/1574787435132817409
Ksmiami
@C Stars: I adore Detroit/Wayne/Oakland County… plus you can go to so many amazing places like Toronto etc by train.
Fair Economist
@trollhattan cites:
In the real world, the Bank of England is having to buy 5 billion pounds a day of gilts (British bonds) to stave off pension fund collapses. Planned to continue for 13 days. This is one of their largest ever interventions, and it will *exacerbate* inflation.
Calouste
@trollhattan: Apparently there are already rumblings among Tory MPs that Truss should sack the Chancellor, and we’re what, four weeks into this cabinet, with two of them taken up by the death of the Queen. The Tory party conference could be interesting if there were actual Tory MPs with a spine, but the last one left a few years back.
eclare
@Steeplejack: Hehehe…
prostratedragon
@Steeplejack: I like Shiv’s style!
Calouste
@Fair Economist: One of the other problems is that a lot of mortgage companies have stopped offering new mortgages, because they just don’t know what rate to set due to the uncertainty.
We knew that of course the next Tory PM would be worse than the previous one, they always are, but this is not as much sliding down a slope as falling off a cliff.
Sister Golden Bear
Remarkable satellite video of the hurricane.
trollhattan
@kalakal: Brings it. Love the studio host at the end, “Okay, stark assessment.” Brit understatement at its understatiest.
Swear they’ve been a Jim Jonseian suicide spiral since Brexit.
West of the Rockies
It will interesting to see DeSantis’s attempt to be empathetic and display gravitas and gratitude.
Paul in KY
@Shalimar: Because he’s him.
eclare
@Calouste: Thing is, Truss and the Chancellor think alike regarding the economy, tax cuts, etc.
trollhattan
@eclare: Has Truss held her “Red tape bonfire” yet? Hope she’s smarter than BoJo and holds it outside #10.
Sister Golden Bear
@sab 🐕: Don’t forget tsunamis as well.
eclare
@trollhattan: Will have to Google that, don’t remember it…
But I would assume any bad thing BoJo did, she will do worse. “Hold my beer” with the UK economy.
kalakal
@eclare: Saw a great joke from Have I Got News For You
Kwasi Kwarteng receives shortest email in recorded history:
From: IMF
Subject: WTF
WaterGirl
@Martin: I wasn’t aware of most of that. Very interesting.
WaterGirl
@Sister Golden Bear:
eclare
@kalakal: Actual LOL!!!
WaterGirl
@Sister Golden Bear:
Matt McIrvin
@sab 🐕: A few years ago I needed one of those but didn’t have one. It hasn’t been quite as bad since.
C Stars
@Ksmiami: Ah, good to hear that. Have you lived thereabouts or just visited? I’ve never actually lived in a place that snows, so that part concerns me. However the huge backyards in that part of the country look quite beautiful to my crowded Bay Area eyes.
Paul in KY
@Calouste: I really think the swearing in of Truss and the knowledge of what a loser she is finally sapped the Queen’s will to live.
Paul in KY
@West of the Rockies: It will be interesting to see how good he can fake it, cause he has none of the real attributes you mentioned.
Geminid
Reuters reports that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was to deliver nationally televised remarks tonight. It sounded like they would be in the form of an interview. Tehran time is 7 1/2 hours ahead of Eastern Standard, so this may already have happened.
Reports have been sketchy with the government curtailing the internet and social media, but it appears that protests are still widespread, in as many as 150 cities and towns, and just as fierce. Last I saw the count of protesters killed by security forces was at 240, with thousands of arrests.
Paul in KY
@WaterGirl: Great dude! Feel for owners of that soon to be former house.
Gin & Tonic
@kalakal: May be apocryphal, but Victor Hugo is reported to have sent a letter to his publisher saying (solely) “?” and the publisher is reported to have responded “!”
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Burnspbesq: And the Oakland Hills fire was on a Sunday in October (Oct 19-20 – I just looked it up). Commentators for the local NFL game broadcast were commenting on the smoke showing up across the Bay.
kalakal
@WaterGirl: Great guy!
sab 🐕
@Sister Golden Bear: Yes. I don’think even Lake Superior could manage a tsunami.
trollhattan
@Geminid: My money’s on him doubling down on his double-down and cramming every jail, prison and warehouse with protestors and passersby, until there’s nobody left to go out on the street.
Heard a horrid interview with a woman scooped up in a protest and taken with a vanload of women, beaten along the way, and then on to I think it was Evin Prison, where they were crammed into a cell with just enough room to stand, told to “eat their own shit” if they got hungry. Followed interrogations, beatings, rape threats, the whole routine before eventually being released to their families to await court dates.
Multiply by probably tens of thousands.
Calouste
@Paul in KY: Now imagine being Charles and having to deal with Truss almost daily while your mother just passed away. I’d be a bit snappy as well.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@dlwchico: Looks like the end of the world is coming, doesn’t it. In a way, it is :-(
eclare
@Gin & Tonic: Hahaha…
Mai Naem mobile
Has Betty Cracker posted an update? Hope all is okay with her and her family. The pics from Bradenton and Naples look awful.
Paul in KY
@Calouste: I sure hope King Charles (privately, I guess) expresses his extreme displeasure over the direction Truss is going in.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@kalakal: Wow! That’s a great rant. Love the way he says “sorry” at the end.
eclare
@Paul in KY:
I have to think Charles will, he meets personally with Truss once a week.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Sister Golden Bear: Wow thanks for the post. That video is remarkable!
sab
@Paul in KY: He is the phucking king. He only gets one vote, like everyone else in the UK. Their monarchs are figureheads only. This is not rocket science or even new information. He is a rich figurehead who goes out to meetings and ribbon cuttings. That is all he does.
Geminid
@trollhattan: It may be tens of thousands by the time its over, but the last figure from human rights organizations was 12,000 arrested.
The regime put the last major outbreak of protests down with machine gun fire. That was in “Bloody November,” 2019. They cracked down just a couple days into protests that broke out in the larger cities over price increases, murdering 1500 citizens by Reuters’ count.
These protest are much more widespread and are in their 12th day now. Raisi happened to travel to New York for the new UN session last week just as they were starting up and did not return until Friday. Raisi is a hardliner and his encouragement of the “Morality Police” to crack down on what they deem improper dress probably led to Mahsa Amini’s death two Fridays ago.
These protests are a real threat to the Islamic Republic and Raisi is going to try and suppress them if he can. He may not be able to.
I’ve been following events in Iran on Iran News Wire, but there are other good sources.
tybee
@Burnspbesq:
“Mexican Radio”
Gvg
@Shalimar: it’s normal for hurricanes. Makes it possible for the feds to start arriving ahead of the storm. Look at the size of the storm. It will cover the entire state, then the rivers and lakes will flood well beyond the main path and there are tornadoes. The counties that have less damage will get less money or none. Every Governor of Florida republican or democrat does this when we get a hurricane. I think other states do too, if they understand the process. Sometimes they don’t and then the aid is delayed. Some of the Katrina delay was the fault of the democratic governor, she didn’t seem to know what she needed to ask for. Bush and his FEMA head were incompetent and unhelpful too and most of the problem.
Florida has a huge plan book supposedly. The Governor and various department heads just need to look up which scenario is happening and follow directions, including what to ask the feds for.
Calouste
@sab: He doesn’t even get a vote. Everyone in the UK can vote for the House of Commons, except the Royal Family, the Lords, and the certified insane.
Miss Bianca
@C Stars: Grew up in Detroit area, and you can definitely find some housing bargains there, plus you will never lack for water! Pretty steep property taxes, tho, as I recall.
kalakal
@Gin & Tonic: haha
Matt McIrvin
@sab: He’s a figurehead, but I do get the impression that the PM is obligated to hear him bloviate on some regular occasions. If she ignores what he says, of course, there’s not a lot he can really do.
cope
@sab 🐕: Maybe not a tsunami but lakes can experience a seiche of as much as five meters.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seiche
eclare
@Matt McIrvin: Required to meet with Liz once a week. She goes to Buckingham.
Abnormal Hiker
@sab 🐕: But meteotsunamis have occurred in Lake Michigan https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteotsunami
apieceofpeace
@dlwchico: From your name, close to the Camp Fire area. Is the town rebuilding okay? I’m going to guess the (fire)insurance for a home or business there has gone only up, and is that a problem with rebuilding in the area? How does that square, with the CF due to PG&E?
Mai Naem mobile
@Gvg: ive forgotten the details but didn’t Bush either not sign or delayed the signing of the emergency declaration from the Governor Blanco? I may be wrong but I seem to remember Bush and his cronies wanted more control of the $$$. I also remember that Louisiana/ NOLA got less money per capita for Katrina than Mississippi )possibly because Trent Lott had a lot of power as majority leader. ) Anyhow, I saw a blurb towards the end of Obama’s term that Louisanians blamed him for not recovering from Katrina – i guess because people thought he was president during Katrina.
West of the Rockies
@apieceofpeace:
Your question was not addressed to me, but I live in Chico, too, and grew up in Paradise (class of ’80).
The town is slowly rebuilding. Some spots are the same as ever. But some streets are nothing more than asphalt and a street sign. Some 85% of the town was engulfed. It’s a bit surreal. Someone put a new home up this year where my folks’ place had been. New building codes are trying to make a future similar event less disastrous.
trollhattan
@apieceofpeace:
The Usual Suspects have been at it in Paradise, of course.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/investigations/article265381231.html
https://www.actionnewsnow.com/news/man-charged-with-paradise-construction-fraud-escapes-from-court-still-on-the-loose/article_c0b5ec0a-b094-11ec-89ce-87d593e76068.html
No firsthand knowledge of what it’s like now. If a tenth of the housing stock is rebuilt I’ll be surprised–pretty remote area and the number of roads leading in and out are the same as before.
BTW, PG&E is under investigation for the Mosquito Fire, which isn’t even contained yet.
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2022/9/6/mosquito-fire/
West of the Rockies
@trollhattan:
Oddly, the high school was essentially untouched while much of the surrounding area was obliterated. But they are now remodeling much of the school. It held over thousand students in the late 70’s, but Paradise now has a population of (bit of a guess) 4,000. Seems an odd time to redo a not-tiny high school.
Just checked: pop 2,200
sab
@Calouste: Wow. I did not know that. Can’t even vote.
And girls that marry into the royal family have to give up their passports. Cannot even bail without permission.
Chris T.
@sab 🐕:
You don’t get a tsunami on a lake, you get a “seiche”. They do happen; see https://project.geo.msu.edu/geogmich/seiches.htm
trollhattan
@West of the Rockies:
Are Chico and Butte Co. still packed with Paradise refugees or have they dispersed? IIRC the rental market tapped out quickly, which is extra challenging in a college town.
sab
I remember when I thought you couldn’t surf in Lake Michigan. I was wrong. But actual tsunamis?
Or seiches?
trollhattan
Now, for something completely different: 18 more HIMARS to Ukraine. Plus other stuff.
They have 16 now, although I think Russia has claimed destroying 25 of those, and the deeper they push into occupied territories (a.k.a. Really New Russia) the more potential targets there are.
Geminid
Reuters published a good article about Mahsa Amini, the young woman whose death in a Tehran hospital two Fridays ago triggered the protests that have spread all over Iran. I found it reprinted in the Jerusalem Post under the title, “Who was Mahsa Amini, whose death sparked Iran protests?”
The report said that Amini was traveling to Tehran by train with her family from her native town of Saqiz, in western Iran. Amini was arrested by “morality police” as soon as she stepped off the train because they said her pants were too tight. She was taken to the police station and she was beaten along the way, her father later learned from women transported with her. Authorities deny this, but they also say the camera in the van was not working.
Amini’s brother waited at the police station two hours and then he saw an ambulance come and go. He was told nothing, but the family was able to find her at a Tehran hospital. She was in a coma and died of cardiac arrest two days later on Friday, September 16.
Before she died, pictures of Ms. Amini lying in her hospital bed spread widely on social media. Small demonstrations broke out in Tehran that Friday evening, and then intensified and spread to over 140 cities and towns in the 12 days since.
West of the Rockies
@trollhattan:
Chico population increased by about 15,000. That includes a huge influx of homeless people. A lot of them are mentally ill and having addiction problems. Theft has increased. It’s taxing in many ways to multiple groups.
Burnspbesq
@tybee:
“I wish I was in Tijuana,
eating barbecued iguana”
trollhattan
@West of the Rockies:
That’s rough. It’s not hard to outstrip the resources of a small city, especially when the surrounding area has even less.
Bupalos
@C Stars: Great Lakes region pretty much scores the best in the US for climate change risk factors. Some researcher picked out Duluth Minnesota as the most disaster-resilient spot in the US. But it applies to most of the Great Lakes.
prostratedragon
@sab: They can get seismic tsunamis and also a thing called a meteotsunami, which can be weather-driven. This is what the thing in Lake Michigan off Chicago in 1954 has been determined to have been. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/06/19/great-lakes-tsunamis/408563001/
PaulWartenberg
If you follow me on Twitter @PaulWartenberg you’ve probably seen me post a few updates on how windy and rainy it’s been in the south Lakeland area today. Also, I am upset about what happened to CJ’S TAVERN in Punta Gorda. /cries
WaterGirl
@PaulWartenberg: There is a new check-in thread. I don’t know anything about the tavern. What happened?
(please answer in the new thread so more people can see it)
Paul in KY
@eclare: Bet he’ll dread those meetings!
Paul in KY
@sab: Well…no shit. Expressing his ‘extreme displeasure’ (in private) is about all a figurehead can do. I didn’t say he could clap her in irons.