(Babin Yar ravine; Image found here)
As the NAZIs moved on Kyiv in 1941, approximately 100,000 of the city’s 160,000 Jewish citizens were able to flee. On the 26th of September 1941 Sonderkomando 4A commanded by SS-Standartenfuhrer Paul Blobel, were given the implementation order to execute the 60,000 Jews remaining in Kyiv. The precipitating incident was a series of attacks on the Kyivan buildings the NAZIs were using as headquarters. The buildings were actually sabotaged by Soviet NKVD officers who had been left behind in Kyiv to specifically attack the NAZIs and disrupt their operations. Those details were not learned until after WW II ended.
The roundup on the 28th was done as a misdirection; the Jews were told they were going to be relocated to two new developments. This was a lie. On the morning of 29 September, the remaining Jews of Kyiv were marched down the Jewish cemetery in Kyiv and to the Babin Yar ravine. They were ordered to undress, turn over any valuables they had with them, and move the edge of the ravine in groups of ten where the NAZIs executed them using the ravine as a mass grave. Two years later in September 1943 Blobel was ordered back to Kyiv. At the same time orders were given for the disinterment of the mass grave so the Jewish corpses could be cremated. 327 prisoners from the Syretsk concentration camp were brought in as slave labor to destroy the evidence of the NAZI’s crimes against humanity at Babin Yar. 100 of them were Jewish. On the morning of 29 September 1943, two years to the day after the massacre, they learned that the NAZIs planned to execute them as well now that they’d finished the forced labor of covering up the NAZIs crimes. The 327 workers already had an escape plan and they immediately revolted against their captors and put it into effect making a break for the forest. Only fifteen survived. The rest were either shot and killed during the initial break for the tree line or were rounded up and executed by the next morning.
Babin Yar, often with the Russian pronunciation of Babi Yar, became a rallying cry for Jews after World War II and the Holocaust. Zchor Babi Yar, remember Babin Yar, was still being used as the name for a B’nai B’rith Youth Organization (BBYO) chapter when I was a member in the 1980s. In fact I’m pretty sure I have a jersey from that chapter with their name on it in a box of stuff somewhere.
Today, on the anniversary of the NAZIs genocidal acts in Kyiv, as well as the heroic resistance against those actions two years later, we have even more evidence of Russia’s genocidal acts towards Ukrainians:
She stated: "When we took 30 children from Mariupol to Moscow region, they said bad things about Putin, sang Ukrainian anthem. We will fix this." pic.twitter.com/VOPIT8irzv
— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) September 29, 2022
Ukrainian children taken to Russia from Mariupol initially showed "negative attitudes" toward Russia.
No wonder after seeing with their own eyes how the RU army turned their city into a ruinous cemetery. Now they are being "taught to love" Russia.
Pure war crime, if not worse. pic.twitter.com/9KqJXBEEcC— Anastasia Magazova (@a_magazova) September 28, 2022
Zchor Babin Yar! And Slava Ukraini!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukrainians!
We continue our diplomatic activity to ensure that all partners of Ukraine and the countries of the world understand what new steps towards escalation are being taken by the terrorist state these days.
I spoke today with President of Poland Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi. I had a meeting with the President of the National Assembly of France. I am grateful to our partners for clearly condemning the Russian sham referenda, for condemning the attempted annexation of our territory, which the Kremlin is currently preparing.
I am grateful to our Polish brothers for their invaluable defense support and our cooperation for the sake of common security. And today, in a conversation with Andrzej Duda, with Mr. President, we discussed how we can further strengthen our relations.
We also discussed cross-border cooperation. We must do everything so that our nations face no obstacles for economic and any other relations.
I would like to thank Prime Minister Draghi for his principled condemnation of Russia’s steps towards escalation. We exchanged views on further steps in our bilateral relations with Italy and in multilateral relations at the EU level that could give all of us in Europe more protection.
The first ever visit to Ukraine by the President of the National Assembly of France is taking place at a truly historic time. At a time when solidarity between leaders at all levels is critical to the future of a democratic world. I thanked Mrs. President of the National Assembly of France and her fellow parliamentarians for their willingness to continue to help us defend the independence of Ukraine and the freedom of the whole of Europe.
I talked today with the university community and public figures of Switzerland on the basis of the University of Zurich. It is very important that Switzerland and its citizens do not remain neutral, and support our aspiration to live – to live freely and in peace.
Everyone in the world understands well what such an attempted annexation would actually mean. It will not mean what the Kremlin hopes for.
Today I explained this to the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia, and other indigenous peoples of Russia. And now I repeat for everyone in this country: Russia will not get a new territory of Ukraine. Russia will annex itself to the catastrophe that it has brought to the occupied territory of our country. Russia will equate itself with the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”, and will completely finish off those institutions of normal statehood that still remained in Russia.
The occupier fills the occupied territory of Ukraine with graves, and there are more and more graves on the territory of Russia itself. The occupier sets up torture chambers in the occupied territory – and will fill the entire territory of Russia with torture chambers. This is the only way the Russian police and Russian special services will work now. The law in Russia has been obliterated. And those who brought all these deaths, torture, rape from Russia will take them home.
Everywhere in the seized territory, the occupier destroys any basis for life – economy, social sphere, culture…
Depriving the entire Russian society of a normal economy, a decent life and respect for any human value will be the price for the fact that one person in Russia wants this war to continue.
This can still be stopped. But to stop it, you have to stop that one in Russia who wants war more than life. Your life, citizens of Russia.
Today, the Russian army inflicted another vile attack on civilians in Mykolaiv – a shell exploded near a public transport stop. There are dead, there are wounded… Again shelling of Kharkiv, the Sumy region, fierce shelling in Donbas, in the south of Ukraine.
All this can be stopped in only one way: liberation. And before Russia came, there was normal life everywhere on Ukrainian land. And when Russia leaves, when we oust it, normal life will return. This is the only way. This is the way to our victory.
We cannot know how long it will take to complete this path. But we know that no Russian manipulation and no Russian crime can push us off this path.
Today we managed to release six more of our citizens from Russian captivity. I am thankful to everyone who ensures this work!
Today we have new results on the frontline.
Today we received additional elements of aid from partners.
It will continue to be so.
Tomorrow is another day of our struggle, another day on the path to victory. Will it be special for us? It will be another day that will bring us closer to security and peace, to restoration of our territorial integrity. Because millions of Ukrainians fight and work for this.
A special meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, which I convened, will take place tomorrow. There will be decisions.
We know how to react to any Russian actions.
And finally. This morning I honored the memory of all the victims of the Babyn Yar. Eternal memory to the victims of Nazism! Eternal damnation to those who repeat the crimes of the Nazis!
Glory to Ukraine!
There was a Senior Defense Official/Senior Military Official (SDO/SMO) backgrounder at the Pentagon yesterday. Just as a quick reminder, a Senior Defense Official is either a Senior Executive Service officer or a senior political appointee and a Senior Military Official is a general officer/flag officer or a very senior colonel/captain (O6). Here’s the relevant parts of the transcript:
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Good afternoon. Today I’d like to begin by commenting briefly on recent developments including Russia’s sham referenda in Ukraine and Russia’s ongoing mobilization. Then I’ll turn to today’s security assistance announcements to give you some additional detail on that.
So first, to underscore what President Biden said at the U.N., Russia’s sham referenda and attempt to annex parts of Ukraine is an extremely significant violation of the U.N. charter. The United States will never recognize this territory as anything other than a part of Ukraine.
Russia’s mobilization is yet another sign that Russia is struggling to salvage its illegal and unprovoked occupation of Ukraine. It’s an indication of the profound personnel and manpower problems Russia continues to face.
Russia’s challenges with troop morale, operations and logistics are compounded by Ukraine’s progress in its ongoing counteroffensive. The mobilization indicates that Russia continues to believe that it can win the long game by outlasting the Ukrainians and international support. This is yet another Russian miscalculation.
We are confident that Ukraine will continue to push back on Russian efforts to conquer its territory. The United States along with the international community will continue to support the Ukrainian people in their fight to defend their country. For that end, today the Department of Defense is announcing approximately $1.1 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative or USAI.
This USAI package underscores the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term. It represents a multiyear investment in critical capabilities to build the enduring strength of Ukraine’s armed forces as it continues to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression.
Unlike presidential drawdown authority, which DoD has continued and will continue to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace. USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid and long term.
So I want to now turn to each of the capabilities and I’ll give you a brief description of the capabilities in this package.
The first is the HIMARS system. And we are providing 18 of what are known as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, again or HIMARS, and associated ammunition. HIMARS provide a highly effective precision fires capability. We’ve all seen how Ukraine has leveraged this system to push back against Russia’s war of aggression, disruption ammunition depots, supply lines and logistical hubs far behind the front lines.
This package of HIMARS, these 18 HIMARS and associated ammunition will constitute a core component of Ukraine’s fighting force in the future. One that can deter and defend against all threats. The procurement and deliver of these HIMARS systems and associated ammunition will take a few years. Today’s announcement is only the beginning of a procurement process.
Now for most of the other capabilities in this package we expect delivery timelines to be between six and 24 months. So now I’ll go through those capabilities.
First, we’re providing 150 armored Humvees, that stands for High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles. And you’ve seen us provide these before to the Ukrainians and they’re very effective at maintaining and sustaining them. These Humvees can conduct multiple missions, they can mount weapons and radar, they can transport personnel and support other maneuver functions.
We’re also providing 150 tactical vehicles to tow weapons. So these are vehicles that could be used for towing and resupplying artillery or MLRS systems, for instance.
We’re also providing 40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment. These trucks and trailers will be able to transport equipment up to 60 tons.
In addition, we’re providing two radars for unmanned aerial systems. Now these particular radars will enhance Ukraine’s existing unmanned aerial systems by augmenting their surveillance and employment range.
We’re providing 20 multi-mission radars. These are radars that can track a number of airborne objects and threats, including mortar and artillery fire, as well as UAS systems, Unmanned Aerial Systems.
And then we’re also providing a suite of counter unmanned aerial systems. So this suite of counter UAS capabilities will be able to detect, track, and disrupt unmanned aerial systems.
Finally, a number of items including tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, optics, explosive ordnance disposal equipment, as well as body armor and field equipment. And as with every package, we provide funding for training, for maintenance and sustainment of this equipment.
So this — with this package it brings the United States to approximately $16.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration. And since 2014 the United States has committed approximately $19 billion in security assistance.
And if you’re just counting from February 24th since the invasion, it’s $16.2 billion. Through both USAI and through our presidential drawdown authority we will continue to work with Ukraine to meet both its immediate needs and as with this package some longer term security assistance needs.
We are confident that with our allies and partners our unified efforts will help Ukraine to continue to be successful today at even as we build their strength for the future. Thank you.
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hi, everybody. Good to be back with you on the 217th day of Russians illegal and unprovoked large scale invasion of Ukraine. Right now — and I’ll just give you a quick understanding or a quick view from my perspective on how we’re seeing the battlefield.
So we continue to see the Ukrainians consolidate gains that they’ve attained over the last several week, particularly in Kharkiv where, as you all have reported now for quite some time, the Ukrainians did a pretty amazing number on the Russian forces outside of Kharkiv to the east of Kharkiv.
They — and I’ll talk a bit about the continued gains and net in that portion of the theater. In the past several weeks we’ve seen Russian forces continue to employ precision strikes, hitting critical civilian infrastructure; dams, power generation stations at an increasing rate.
Throughout the conflict we’ve seen a general disregard for civilian infrastructure and the lives with the use of artillery and missile strikes that has not abated. And so as you all have reported, we’ve seen a number of dams, in particular, and power stations here recently.
Around the battlefield then on the ground, in vicinity of Kharkiv, as I mentioned, we’ve seen, again, over the past couple of weeks some really impressive Ukrainian gains and we continue to see them hold the northern border. So along the border with Russia to the north.
And then there have been artillery exchanges in that portion of the battle space to the southeast generally in the vicinity (inaudible). We assess that Russian forces have lost territory and the Ukrainians continue to gain. In fact, are across on the east side of the Oskil River and they continue to press east against the Russians and that portion of the battle space.
A little further south, vicinity Lyman, east of Izyum; we asses that Russian forces are continuing to cede territory there as well to the Ukrainians. And that progress, although not as lightning fast as it was at the beginning of operations in the Kharkiv AOR continue to press forward.
Further south in the Donbas region near Bakhmut we have seen in the last — in fact the last time I talked to you all we were seeing some Russian gains in that portion of the battle space. They were small incremental gains, very similar to how we’ve seen in Severodonetsk a couple of months ago (inaudible) where the Russians were making progress but at heavy expense.
That has not necessarily changed. There are some incremental gains but again, those gains are very small and a pretty expensive price for the Russians. No real adjustment or update for you in Zaporizhzhia.
And then in the vicinity of Kherson, really deliberate and calibrated operations by the Ukrainians as they continue to employ fires and hold the gains that they made about a month ago, about three and a half weeks ago in outside of Kherson and that continues.
In the maritime domain we’re seeing about a half dozen ships that are on the way in the Black Sea, about half of those that are caliber capable. And then in the air we continue to assess that the air space over Ukraine remains contested, which is a big deal.
In training, now up over — upwards of 2,000 Ukrainians that have been trained by us to include about 500 that have been trained on HIMARS.
And just to touch on it because I know folks are going to want to ask, relative to the Nord Stream Pipeline in the Baltic Sea, you know we, as is the case with the rest of the global community continue to monitor the situation and the circumstances. I think we’re as perplexed as anyone else and would — are very interested in knowing how this came about, whether it’s an accident or otherwise.
And I will hold there pending any comments or questions.
STAFF: All right. Let’s go to the phones. Lita Baldor from Associated Press.
QUESTION: Hi, thank you. For (redacted), there’s been — just two things, there’s been a lot of discussions but this was apparent sabotage. Is the — does the U.S. believe that it is — was indeed apparent sabotage and is there any evidence pointing to Russia?
And then a broader question. Have you seen or has the U.S. seen any movement of any of these new Russian conscripts into the battle space? Can you just paint us a picture of Russian force posture changes over the last week or more? Thank you.
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hi, Lita. So let me answer the first one. I think, you know, the jury is still out. I think think many of our partners, I think, have determined or believed it is sabotage. I’m just — I’m not at the point where I can tell you one way or the other. I think we’re very interested in figuring out what has occurred here and we’ll continue to stay connected to our partners as we proceed.
And the conscripts, and there has been open source reporting on the conscripts. I think the first portions of the — of the mobilized members of Russian society have, in fact, made it into Ukraine in small numbers. There was reporting I saw this morning that was talking about the first death of a mobilized soldier.
I think it was — and I want to say it was social media where the mother was going back and forth on social media about the loss of her son. But again that was social media reporting.
I think just to address the mobilization piece. You know this is — I mean it’s certainly something to be concerned with. You know when you about the mobilization of upwards of 300,000 people, it’s much harder to generate that force than I think folks will say.
You know we certainly have seen protest across the country and concern from the Russian population about the mobilization but just the mechanics of outfitting that size of a force is very difficult. Then when you consider the fact that the majority of the people who would train those individuals, those individuals are in Ukraine.
And you know, we know that their ability to train — in fact, the open source I saw on the individual I was talking about before said that they had reported — when they were mobilized they had reported they received one day of training, and then they had been sent to Ukraine. I just think about the level of training that we put in our own armed forces, and know that that’s far — pretty inadequate.
A bunch of other things on mobilization. I’ll just hold there, Lita.
STAFF: Thanks, Lita. Jen Griffin, Fox News.
Q: Thank you, Todd.
I just want to go back to the issue of the Nord Stream 2, and I understand that the jury is out in terms of sabotage. But can you rule out how deep were the explosions? Does it look like there were submarines involved? Can you rule out that there were divers who placed explosives? Does it look like this is a state actor who was behind this? What do you know at this point?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: The only thing I think I know there, Jen, is that we think the water is between 80 and 100 meters at that location where the pipeline is. Other than that, I don’t know anything more. Those were all interesting things, I just don’t know anything more than the depth of the water at the location that we think there’s a leak.
Q: Can you rule out that the U.S. was involved?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah. Absolutely not involved.
Q: Thank you.
STAFF: Thanks, Jen. Tom with National Public Radio.
Q: Yes, could you get back to the conscripts you’re seeing heading into Ukraine? Can you say where they’re heading and a ballpark on the numbers? And also for the Senior Defense Official, you know, could we get an overall breakdown, a fact sheet in how much military material has been sent into Ukraine? 105, 155 rounds, you know, MRAPs, drones, et cetera?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure, Tom. So that’s a very lengthy answer because we’ve provided just so much equipment, and everything that we provide by a presidential drawdown authority goes into Ukraine within days or weeks. So we can certainly give you the fact sheets that we have, and I think I’ll provide those offline, because it would be so extensive. There is one fact…
(CROSSTALK)
Q: Oh, sure — no, no, that’s fine…
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: …that’s actually posted.
Q: …that’s just — if we could at some point…
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, OK, good.
Q: …get a fact sheet on that. So we just have a sense of how much stuff is arriving.
And again, for the Senior Military Official, conscripts, numbers, where are they going? Do you have a sense?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, so I don’t necessarily have a sense on the numbers that have entered into Ukraine at this point. And in terms of where they’re going, I’m quite honestly, I don’t know that I’ve seen a particular location that they’ve gone as much as they’ve entered Ukraine. My guess is over the course of, you know, the next several weeks we’ll start to have an idea as to where they’re going out.
If you look at where the Russians are having problems, it’s really all over the battle space. So they’ve got a requirement to reinforce — you know, in the north near Bakhmut in the center, as well as down in Kherson. So, a tough problem for the Russians.
Q: And lastly…
(CROSSTALK)
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: And Tom…
Q: I’m sorry, go ahead.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: So I just wanted to let you know, my PA colleagues just said that they actually did just update on the website our fact sheet. So that should be available to everyone. But if it doesn’t answer your question, feel free to come right back to us.
Q: And just quickly, as far as the conscripts, do you see any more armor going in, or is it just — they’re just dropping them off wherever?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: No, I — you know, we haven’t seen an increase. And that’s part of the problem they’ve got is the Ukrainians have done a pretty good job of destroying Russian equipment over the course of the last seven plus months. And as you would guess, that equipment is in most cases irreplaceable.
I’ve seen — and this is again, open source stuff. I’ve seen them talking about — I’ve seen a report that they’re talking about using T-55 tanks, as an example. You know, the thought that you’d employ a T-55 tank in a fight tells you how bad off you are in terms of your ability to equip people.
STAFF: Thanks, Tom. Lara at Politico.
Q: Hi, thanks so much for doing this. Two questions.
For the Senior Defense Official, I just wanted to ask what is the reason for doing this through USAI? I know we’ve seen you give — transfer HIMARS through PDA previously. So what’s the reason we’re not transferring HIMARS through PDA now? It’s kind of interesting to me that these weapons are going to take two years to get to the battlefield. Does this — do we not have any available in inventory now to give the Ukrainians?
And then secondly, for the Senior Military Official, just on the conscripts. What’s your assessment whether Russia will be able to get to the goal of 300,000 conscripts for this fight?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: OK, hey there. So I’ll talk about the USAI question. So if we don’t invest today to procure HIMARS for the future, they won’t be there when the Ukrainian Armed Forces need them down the road. And this is a really sizable investment, it’s 18 HIMARS.
If you consider we’ve provided them with 16 to-date via presidential drawdown authority and the allies have provided another 10 equivalent MLRS systems — this is a really sizable investment and it’s intended so that down the road Ukraine will have what it needs for the long haul to deter future threats. But in no way rules out us continuing to invest in their current force with capabilities that are available today and that we can drawdown today from U.S. stocks.
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: And, Lara, on the mobilization piece, you know, so I think the thought is that they — by opening up to mobilization they had the ability to mobilize up to 300,000. I don’t know that they’ll get to 300,000, Russia is a pretty big country.
I think what’s more interesting about it is the fact that they’ve had to do this, quite honestly. I mean, they mobilized twice before this, one was in 1914 and one was in 1941. So if you think about the consequences that they kind of feel that they’re in right now and you compare that to World War I and World War II, that certainly says a lot about what the Ukrainians have been able to do to the Russian Army.
STAFF: Thanks, Lara. Ellee, CBS News.
Q: Thanks. Have you guys seen any indications that the Russians are going to try and mobilize Ukrainians in some of these areas that they’re holding the referendum?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: We haven’t. Now, I think a lot of people are speculating that the referendum, that there are some thoughts behind why a referenda right now? But that speculation, I’d kind of turn you to the Russians, and I’m sure we’ll hear soon.
STAFF: Thanks, Ellee. Felicia, Financial Times.
Q: Thanks so much.
For (SMO), can you speak a bit more about what’s happening in Kherson right now, and maybe just kind of take a step back and say strategically why the south is important heading into winter? And I guess, if also you could just say anything about how winter will affect the fighting?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Sure, Felicia.
I guess, let me start with winter. So we know just because of the way that the terrain and the way that the typically the climate that in the November timeframe things gets tough in terms of mobility just based on pre-freeze. So the – it’s pretty muddy. So I think we’ll see the terrain certainly change and become very difficult for fighting on both sides. Now it doesn’t last, it freezes back up later. So anyways that on the terrain.
Why is the south important? I would tell you to the Ukrainians all of it’s important. I think that’s probably their perspective. Kherson is very important it’s kind of the gateway to Odessa. If you can control Kherson you can certainly prevent folks from getting to Odesa which I think we all believe that the Russians really wanted Odesa. That makes a lot of sense given the strategic aspect associated with the port.
And then the river certainly and the ability to where in the country and how that’s divided. So in terms of the fight, initially and I think we talked about this maybe a month ago. Some really quick gains by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have been setting conditions since then from our perspective.
Now the weather’s been pretty lousy for the past couple of weeks. So I think that’s impacted a bunch of folks. We know that Russian morale is very bad in Kherson. The Ukrainians did a pretty good job of isolating the Russians on the western side or the northern side, the right bank, as they call it. And as a result the Ukrainians were able to kind of inflict some damage using their artillery against the Russians.
The morale was bad already and the numbers in terms of percentages were pretty low when they started this. We do believe that the Russians have been able to reinforce across the bridge in some numbers but not to the level that would we think inflict any kind of damage on the Ukrainians.
But I’ll hold there. I probably – I don’t know if I gave you enough there, Felicia, or if I didn’t answer anything.
STAFF: Felicia, thank you.
Q: No, that was helpful.
STAFF: I appreciate it. Thanks, Felicia. Tony with Bloomberg.
Q: Hi there. For the Senior Military Official one quick question. Can you talk a little bit about Ukraine’s tank operations? Their size and scope? Are they using T-80s and T-84s indigenous to their country or have they received NATO types of tanks yet? Just a little bit on that.
And to the Senior Defense Official, can you – have we committed and actually delivered all 16 HIMARS to date? What is the rough value to Lockheed of building these additional 18? And can you talk a little bit about how fast Raytheon is pulling together these first two NASAMS? I thought they took years to build.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: OK, I can start with the latter questions and then we’ll turn to Senior Military Official on the tanks. Sixteen HIMARS, yes, those were delivered earlier this year. And in terms of – I don’t have kind of value for production on your question about Lockheed. That’s not information I have available.
In terms of NASAMS it’s important to know that there are two packages here for NASAMS. And the initial NASAMS purchase via USAI tranche three, this was earlier in the summer, it just was two and it was able to be procured quickly because it was – the bulk of it had already been produced. So the later procurement under USAI tranche five will take more time because of the production timelines.
I hope that helps explain it.
Q: It does, yes. And (SMO), sir, can you talk a little bit about the tank conflict?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, sure, Tony. I was trying to get after my – I was trying to pull up some data for you and I couldn’t find it. What I would tell you is that we know the Ukrainians have been operating Soviet style tanks. So I’ll leave the series in terms of T-80s or otherwise to the Ukrainians. But we know they’ve been employing them to pretty good effect.
We also know, as you might expect, they’re using a number of tanks that they were able to secure from the Russians. And so most recently in Kharkiv, but also before that at the beginning of the fight back in the March and April timeframe when the Russians were abandoning equipment. And some of that – and some of that equipment was abandoned because it was employed in places where the terrain didn’t support it and they literally had to leave it.
The Ukrainians, as you probably recall, four or five months ago seen some amazing pictures of them hauling tanks out of mud pits with tractors and others. So we know that they’re using that as well. And I’ll kind of leave it that. They are, as you would imagine, they are using an armored force to conduct these operations. And quite honestly doing pretty well.
Q: May I — one quickly, is there any discussion right now of sending them M1A1 tanks the U.S. Army was going to divest over the next couple years?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: I’ve seen that in recent writing. We haven’t looked at any particular provision of M1 tanks.
Q: OK, thank you.
STAFF: Thanks, Tony. Alex, Washington Post. Hey, Alex, you there?
Q: Yes, I’m here, thanks. I was curious if there is going to be another PDA before the end of the fiscal year here in a couple days? Or if not are you leaving anything on the table? And two, when it comes to cold weather, is – are any of the future procurements coming going to be focused on things like cold weather gear and other things that will be unique to a more winter fight?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure, I can tackle both of those. In terms of the cold weather gear, we have provided some of that, I don’t have the numbers handy. But I can also tell you that with our allies there is a considerable effort led by the U.K. to provide a whole range of cold weather gear and equipment so that the Ukrainians will have what they need this winter. That’s something that we’ve discussed in the Ukraine defense contact group meetings and our next meeting is right around the corner. So we’ll continue to push for that there.
In terms of presidential drawdown, it’s important to note this isn’t actually money to be left on the table. This is authority. So it’s authority that enables us to draw from U.S. stock. And we are very closely watching to see whether the U.S. Congress will continue to be so incredibly supportive and generous in providing us with this authority. We have requested an additional $3.6 billion in presidential drawdown authority. And certainly if that is enacted that would enable us to continue along with our drawdown process starting as soon as the very beginning of the fiscal year.
But I want to assure you that we have mechanisms to be able to continue to use the current authority should that be necessary. But again I’m very hopeful because the U.S. Congress has just been so supportive to date. Over.
STAFF: Thank you. Paul, Agence France. Paul, are you there? All right, hearing nothing I’ll move on…
Q: Yeah, I’m here, I’m here. I’m sorry, had problems un-muting. A couple of things, one is, (SMO), you mentioned that the Ukrainians are holding the border near Kharkiv well. Is there any, or is there much cross border shooting? And is that a risk?
My second question is on the nuclear issue. If Russia did use a tactical nuclear weapon in the Ukraine area, does the U.S. feel that it needs to consult with or come to an agreement with NATO on a response?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Let me answer the border one. So, on the border we are seeing some cross border fires between both the Ukrainians and the Russians. Is it concerning? You know, if you’re on the receiving end, it certainly is concerning. But the — we’re not seeing anything where they are firing long-range, they’re shooting their standard artillery systems back and forth, and employing those in a tactical way.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: And then on the nuclear issue, I think you’ve heard National Security Advisor Sullivan speak about this recently, certainly President Biden has spoken about this. We have clearly warned Moscow that any use of nuclear weapons would result in serious consequences. And you know, we’re not going to get into the specifics of what those specific responses would be.
In terms of allies, we are very much in close consultation with our allies on all matters related to Ukraine, but also certainly on all aspects of the Russian threat. But of course, the United States also has its own prerogative to employ a U.S. option.
STAFF: Thanks, Paul. Phil Stewart, Reuters.
Q: Hey there. Just back to the Nord Stream ruptures. Could you give me any sense of what U.S. military role there might be in investigating what went on here? Any undersea assets, or aviation assets, or anything being used or any U.S. military role whatsoever in investigating this?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: We’re, like a number of other, you know, countries out there with capability that could certainly assist. But we haven’t been asked to do so. And again, there are a lot of countries out there that have underwater capability.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: And I’ll just say, Phil, that Secretary Austin has had the opportunity to speak with his Danish counterpart today and just offer that if there’s any support that they need, we’re there for them.
STAFF: All right. We’ve got time — we have two minutes left. Let me go to Oren at CNN and we’ll wrap this up.
Q: My question was asked. Thank you, though.
STAFF: No problem at all. Everyone, thank you very much. Let’s have a great rest of the week. Bye-bye.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here’s their updated map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessments on the situations in Kherson and Lyman:
KHERSON/1315 UTC 29 SEP/ Multiple Partisan- SOF directed precision strikes have hit RU facilities within the urban area of Kherson. A gas pipeline breach and fire is reported at Brylivka, S. of Kherson [off map]. This Op likely the result of a Partisan direct action mission. pic.twitter.com/fsJk2adeZ4
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 29, 2022
LYMAN/2045 UTC 29 SEP/ The O-0528 is the only line of communication & supply for RU units at Lyman. It's now well within the range of UKR artillery. RU units attempting to reinforce or withdraw from Lyman will be interdicted. UKR forces reported to have liberated Shandryholove. pic.twitter.com/kIqlTAC45o
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 29, 2022
And here’s The Kyiv Independent‘s defense correspondent Illia Ponomarenko’s assessment of the situation in Lyman:
A Russian collapse in the Lyman-Yampil sector is almost imminent now.
The pocket is about to be closed off if this is not the case yet.
Russians need to leave before it’s too late, but now it would be hard as Ukraine can target their withdrawal route. pic.twitter.com/H7EZPDHZWe— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 29, 2022
Despite the apparently imminent Russian loss of Lyman, Putin is going to go ahead with his delusional announcement tomorrow:
Putin will deliver a speech and meet with the Russian occupation authorities of all four annexed regions
The speech will likely be replete with Novorossiya-inspired rhetoric that highlights the historical destiny of these regions to join Russia
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) September 29, 2022
Expect to hear a lot of bluster and threats. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t announce that Russia is really fighting a defensive war in the newly annexed oblasts and regions that are being illegally occupied. And, as a result Russia is defending itself and its citizens against a genocidally anti-Russian Ukrainian NAZI invasion. Also, keep an ear out for more threats of the use of nuclear weapons against the Ukrainian invaders. This is what happens when you stop promoting propaganda and start believing the propaganda you’ve been promoting.
NEW: Senior Ukrainian military intelligence official says use of Russian nuclear weapons 'is possible. They'll try to stop our offensive activity & destroy our state. It's a threat to other countries: blast of tactical nuclear weapon will impact…the Black Sea region' @itvnews
— Emma Burrows (@EJ_Burrows) September 21, 2022
We have some senatorial bipartisanship on Putin’s illegal occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territory and his threat to use Russian nukes:
I’m on the hill today covering @LindseyGrahamSC and @SenBlumenthal’s efforts to condemn any Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory pic.twitter.com/jo2FGQNu5n
— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) September 29, 2022
Graham says the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine should be seen as an attack on NATO itself
— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) September 29, 2022
I’m not sure anyone else in NATO sees it that way. With the possible exception of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, but the Biden administration has been clear in both its public and private warnings to the Russian leadership about what using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would lead too.
Speaking of the Baltic states and Finland, now might be a good time to invade:
NEW: Russia has redeployed up to 80 percent of troops from its borders on the Baltic states and Finland to plug losses in Ukraine, officials tell @RobbieGramer & me
European officials said there could be just 6,000 🇷🇺 troops left in Kaliningrad & Balticshttps://t.co/9U7AN3mzXH
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) September 28, 2022
I kid!!!!
A bit more on the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines:
NATO warns of retaliation against Nord Stream's sabotage:
"Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response"
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) September 29, 2022
The two explosions of Nord Stream 1 & 2 took place just outside of Danish & Swedish territorial waters, that is, on international waters. They were professionally pursued with huge detonations. Talking to experts here in Stockholm, I receive only one answer: Russia.
— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) September 28, 2022
The obvious culprit in the Nord Stream explosions appears to be GUGI (Glavnoe Upravlenie Glubokikh Issledovanii) in St. Petersburg, which has mini-subs (known from Soviet submarine incursions into Sweden).
These explosions suggest that Russia is spreading the war, but just to the border of NATO (Denmark) and soon to be NATO (Sweden). This operation spreads fear that other cables and pipelines will be blown up as well. The Norwegian-Polish gas pipeline opened yesterday…
Therefore, NATO now needs to develop a response force to balance Russia’s GUGI, which will be costly. It would be far more effective to send more arms & money to Ukraine. Do that first!
The last tweet (machine) translates as:
Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Head of the GUGI of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Vice Admiral Burilichev Alexey Vitalievich
Well that’s a shame:
Alexei Nagin, commander of the notorious “Wagner group” in Ukraine, nominated hero of russia, was demobilised near Bakhmut by Ukrainian soldiers. #UkraineWins 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/8m7rToSzjj
— Operator Starsky (@StarskyUA) September 29, 2022
As the crest for the 2nd Brigade Combat Team/1st Armored Division, the Iron Brigade, reads: Strike Hard!
Iron horses race towards sunrise. Continuing until the border stops us. pic.twitter.com/2GAZ7eohgy
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 29, 2022
That was the brigade I was the cultural advisor for and deployed to Iraq with.
For those so inclined:
Please feel welcome to donate via PayPal [email protected]
— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 29, 2022
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
AN-225 "Mriya"
"Mriya" means "dream" in Ukrainian.
It was the largest plane in the world.
And evil people destroyed it…
But we will restore everything because neither Ukraine nor the Ukrainian dream can be destroyed! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/dMMlPV56XL— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 29, 2022
Look at this dog, who survived the rocket attack,but is still shocked. In March,an aerial bomb was dropped near my work.The wave threw me to the wall.That was like a thousand whistles and drums in my head.I still haven't come to my senses. In fact,we will never come to our senses https://t.co/qYayRjrcaT
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 29, 2022
The full three tweet thread that Patron’s official Twitter account is quote tweeting:
That moment when the Russians killed your family and bombed your house. Now this dog is left alone…. pic.twitter.com/eECH2bzqLu
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) September 29, 2022
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) September 29, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Знайшли тут свого Патрона?😛 #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption translates as:
Found your Patron?😛 #PatronDog #PatronDSNS
Open thread!
Winnable House Races in Purple Districts (NV-03)
Frankensteinbeck
I thought I read that Wagner Group exploits low-prestige (like conscripts) Russian units as meat shields, and basically tried to keep from being shot at. Isn’t them taking heavy losses a really, really bad sign for Russian effectiveness?
Andrya
About the kidnapped Ukrainian children- this is so evil that I am simply staggered. Subjecting traumatized children to to brainwashing/Stockholm syndrome? An then BOASTING about it, not realizing that to any decent person, what the russian government did here is worse than murder? If these children remain in russia, what trauma will they endure repressing their longing for their families?
The ancient Greeks said, “whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad”. Here is the madness, pray God we soon see the defeat.
TaMara
A little good news:
Adam L Silverman
@Frankensteinbeck: Yes.
Frankensteinbeck
As for the annexation, Putin is well into ‘boy who cried wolf’ territory. Maybe it will have some domestic effect. Maybe. For everyone else it’s just more Russian mouth noises. He’s like Trump and his ‘two weeks’ promises now.
Adam L Silverman
@TaMara: Excellent!
zhena gogolia
@Andrya: They’re out of their fucking minds.
zhena gogolia
@Frankensteinbeck: I hope you’re right.
zhena gogolia
I stumbled across something on YouTube today that seemed to be like “Navalny News.” It was framed as a news show, with a lovely newsreader, but up behind her was NAVALNY in lights, and she would do these little weird things, like after reporting on the mobilization, she’d say, “Don’t let them send you to war. Don’t accept any draft notices. Don’t go into any government building where you might have to show your papers.” Every news story was like that. It was like Tokyo Rose, only for the good guys.
japa21
@zhena gogolia: That’s the problem with this whole fucking war.
Medicine Man
@Andrya: The Russian attitude towards the abducted children is exactly what Hannah Arendt described to us decades ago.
Traveller
Geeze, another great and content full post from Mr. Silverman…he is a fabulous talent and asset beyond compare. Of course, I have much to say with my own strong opinions, but there is no time in my life except to give real & sincere Thank You for the post yesterday of the Frida Ghitis Twitter posts of women singing Bella Ciao…I wept.
I was unaware of this song or its power, (there is so much I don’t know…{grin})…but Adam elevated my life yesterday and I need to thank him for this. You never know what you will find here…and this is a wonderful good. Thank You again, Best Wishes, Traveller (same to all posters)
zhena gogolia
@zhena gogolia: Oh, and she showed a billboard they have up in the Russian-occupied area, with a picture of Joe Biden and the caption “Spasibo Dedu za nashu pobedu,” which means, “Thanks, granddad, for our victory.” They are out of their fucking minds.
patrick II
I watch “Reporting from Ukraine” most days on Youtube. He has very good maps and explanations. I am not sure who “he” is though. Is it someone you all know?
When the Dnieper freezes this winter, how does that change Ukraine’s strategy? I assume heavy equipment will still not be able to pass.
Roger Moore
@Frankensteinbeck:
The annexations have all the signs of being a panic reaction. Putin clearly wants them annexed now so he can make some ridiculous claim about Ukraine attacking Russian territory, but that wouldn’t work if Ukraine weren’t retaking the territory he claims to have annexed. Maybe Putin can spin the whole thing into a PR win, but it seems more likely to turn against him when he can’t defend what he claims to be sovereign Russian territory from a much smaller neighbor.
zhena gogolia
@patrick II: Dnipro
Adam L Silverman
@Traveller: Thak you for the kind words. You are most welcome. And here’s the song in Ukrainian sung by Ukrainian soldiers:
Roger Moore
@Medicine Man:
The Nazis did the exact same thing. They decided some children in the occupied areas of Eastern Europe were sufficiently “Aryan” to save. They kidnapped those children and gave them to German parents in the hopes of Germanizing them. As far as I can tell, the main difference is the Russians see all Ukrainians as being basically Russian and thus possible targets for cultural reprogramming, while the Germans only wanted ones who met their racial standards.
hrprogressive
Have we reached the “awaiting Mutually Assured Destruction” stage yet?
Cuz that’s what it feels like.
We have a Bond Villian with Doomsday Weapons, apparently willing to use them, and I can’t fathom how anyone on the world stage stops him and/or *responds to his use of any* without at least risking, if not guaranteeing, MAD.
I thought all this stuff was consigned to history, but apparently not.
Adam L Silverman
@Roger Moore: The Franco regime and the Pinochet regime did the same things.
Kent
The more I read about the NS1 pipeline attacks the more it seems like a Russian action. Apparently there were Russian military ships in the area as well.
At first glance one might ask why the Russians would blow up their own pipeline. However if they were planning to shut off gas to the west this winter anyway, this way gets them off the hook contractually. Otherwise it seems that western buyers of Russian gas who have signed contracts would be entitled to serious contractual penalties for breech of contract on the part of the Russians. I don’t know how much we are talking about, but it would be substantial and there are a lot of seized Russian assets that could be claimed.
But if it was an act of terrorism or war then Russia off the hook on those contracts.
Roger Moore
@Adam L Silverman:
And that seems to have been a major goal of Trump’s family separation policy. And a number of American (and Canadian) policies toward First Nations.
patrick II
@zhena gogolia:
Thanks. I will adjust. I was just using the spelling I found in Wiki.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: Navalny is not one of the good guys.
japa21
@Adam L Silverman: So I had never heard of that song so I went to find the words in English. Apparently, as far as most people can tell, the partisan version was actually created after WWII. The words seem actually more appropriate in this situation than they would have back then.
japa21
@Gin & Tonic: Goodness is relative in these times. And that is not a judgement about Navalny.
Adam L Silverman
@Roger Moore: Yep.
Martin
@Kent: Also sews discord among the politicians that were debating whether or not to buy gas from Russia this winter. Also tells the west that other pipelines can be blown up, and forces resources to protect them.
I would like to hear a cogent argument why Russia can continue to violate the US Charter and remain a permanent security council member, presumably granted only because of said charter, but not really even since that was the Soviet Union. If the seat should go to a former Soviet state, give it to Ukraine.
Gin & Tonic
@patrick II: Dnieper is the transliteration of the Russian name. Dnipro is the transliteration of the Ukrainian name. Since the river is in Ukraine, the latter is preferred.
(Dnipro is also the current name of the city on the river that used to be known as Dnipropetrovsk.)
Martin
Somewhat ominous how urgently western nations are telling their citizens to flee Russia. I know the risk of a nuclear strike is low, and yet everyone is preparing for it. Doesn’t feel great.
Ksmiami
@Andrya: I hope Ukraine encircles Lyman…
@hrprogressive: time to just target every Russian entity: military, trade etc outside of Russia. Essentially cut off the country from the world by any and every means necessary
Gin & Tonic
I’m glad to see that song appearing again, especially as sung by the Ukrainian soldiers, but just noting that that version, sung by those women, originally appeared back in the summer. The Ukrainian words are generally attributed to Khrystyna Soloviy – here is her rendition, dating back to early March.
Ksmiami
@Martin: rescind their membership yesterday
Frankensteinbeck
@Martin:
Is that about nuclear threats, or is it about Putin being a mean, petty asshole who would arrest Westerners or press-gang them into his army just to give a middle finger to us?
raven
@Martin: If they didn’t get the fuck out of there long before now tough shit.
hrprogressive
@Ksmiami:
How does this stop Doctor Strangelove from launching everything he has and turning the globe to ash?
JanieM
Thanks as always, Adam. I find the Babin Yar story almost unbearable as a distillation (in my mind) of so much more, including what Russia is doing now. But for that very reason it’s good to be reminded of it. I wouldn’t have known the dates. Sigh.
phdesmond
@Adam L Silverman:
… and the Argentine military after the repression of the mid-70s.
Andrya
@hrprogressive: Only the fact that Moscow would be turned to ash, and he lives in Moscow.
Ksmiami
@hrprogressive: I didn’t say blow them up so much as grab everything we can and hold it as leverage … at this point, we are dealing with a non rational actor anyway
Gin & Tonic
I mentioned this downstairs, but the head of logistics for russian railways, Pavel Pchelnikov, “committed suicide.” He was found shot to death on his balcony. Frankly, I am surprised he didn’t jump off the balcony after shooting himself.
Anoniminous
Problem with nuclear blackmail is it’s a Negative Sum Game for the blackmailed. If the EU kowtows then Russia is in de facto control of the European peninsula for the foreseeable future. This is something the Poles especially will not accept, neither will the Estonians, Lithuanians, Latvians, Sweden, Norway, and Finland. If Russia does use nuclear weapons then NATO HAS TO respond otherwise Russia wins and their in de facto control of the European peninsula for the foreseeable future.
That’s why, ultimately, the only way to win a nuclear war is to not play.
CarolPW
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you! I thought that I had listened to those soldiers before, and began to wonder if they were caught in a chrono-synclastic infundibulum.
Adam L Silverman
@phdesmond: Them too!
Ksmiami
@Gin & Tonic: my spouse and I were thinking that so much of the pathology of Russia may actually stem from generations of fetal alcohol syndrome- like an entire nation of poisoned minds.
Ken
@Martin: My impression was that the governments think Putin might seize hostages.
EDIT: I see Frankensteinbeck got there already.
Gin & Tonic
@raven: You know, if you have a life abroad, it can be a tough call. I know expats in Kyiv who stayed there after February 24, and I know some who left. It’s complicated. When Covid started, and my son was in Kyiv, he was basically directed to leave, but decided to stay (we were consulted, of course.) There’s a lot to these decisions.
hrprogressive
@Andrya:
Something about bunkers in the Urals? I have no idea if mountains would survive a strike like that, but.
My concern is if we have a real life supervillian who is fine to take humanity with him if he gets to be the one to destroy everyone…
We don’t really have a way to stop that, as far as I can tell.
I know all the lines about “nuclear war can’t be won and must not be fought” but if Putin thinks he can win it, even if it means he dies too.
“Game Over, Man”
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman:
@Gin & Tonic:
Thanks for the song links. According to Wikipedia, the song has now come full circle, because the tune was traced to a klezmer musician from Ukraine!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
While I understand the reasoning and the logistics, it still kinda sucks to see “we’re giving Ukraine 18 more HIMARS!” and then find out it’ll take a couple years. If only magic were real…of course, then I would just use it to make putin go poof.
BTW, if folks are interested, here is the video Zelenskyy mentions where he “addresses the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia and other indigenous peoples of Russia”. (English subtitles)
What the russians are doing to these children is fucking abominable. I can’t imagine the trauma these children will internalize from this. It’s monstrous.
Thank you as always, Adam. Your work here is more appreciated than words can say.
patrick II
@Gin & Tonic:
Thank you. As I said earlier, I looked it up on Wiki to make sure I got the spelling “right”. It appears there is a lot of cleaning up to do on the internet.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Why isn’t Navalny one of the good guys?
Ruckus
@Ksmiami:
It goes back a very, very long time. A lot of generations of time.
Anoniminous
Hej Sokoly
Lyrics:
Somewhere from beneath that black water1
A young Cossack mounts his horse
He tenderly bids farewell to his girl
Even more tenderly to the Ukraine
(refrain:)
Hey, hey, hey falcons
Pass the mountains, forests, pits
Ring, ring, ring my little bell
In the steppe
Ring, ring, ring
Sorry, sorry for the girl
For the green Ukraine
Sorry, sorry, one’s heart is weeping
I’ll never see you again
(refrain)
She, she remained there
My little swallow, my baby
In the green Ukraine
At my beloved girl’s place
(refrain)
Wine, wine, wine, wine – give it to me
And when I die bury me
In the green Ukraine
At my beloved girl’s place
jl
I wonder if the untrained, and often unfit, newly mobilized mob aren’t really meant to fight at all. They might be just crowds to fill in the spaces and slow down the Ukrainian forces. Throw in a large enough crowd and it will take longer to shoot through it. Hope that slows things down until winter and maybe Russia can find some actual reinforcements that can do something. Or maybe most of them will throw up defenses as fast as they can, in an attempt to force a stalemate at the new fake boundary of Russia?
I don’ t think we really know what Putin’s goals were or are in his criminal insanity. Maybe it was to just try stuff until he found a way to mess up Ukraine more or less permanently as much as possible. Putin has his corridor to Crimea, and if it’s still not to late to keep the lies to the Russian population working, he can just lie that Russia met its goals and VICTORY!
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I certainly don’t have dispositive knowledge, but I remember this came up: https://crimea.suspilne.media/en/news/942
Generally speaking, it seems that a lot of Russian “liberals” are still imperialists. Their liberalism stops at the border of European Russia.
I think G&T or someone else closer to Ukraine should weigh in, though.
Frankensteinbeck
@Gin & Tonic:
Yeah. And like I said there, all I can think is that Pchelnikov told Putin the truth, that something Putin wants is impossible.
I think these deaths are important. Very important. With every one, the powerful people around Putin get a little more obsessed with “I could be next”, and a little more aware that loyalty is no protection.
Ksmiami
@Ruckus: oh if you knew my family history, believe me, we know…
Dan B
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Navalny is a nationalist, as I understand, and may be in favor of annexing or obliterating Ukraine. But others will know more.
Tony G
I’m waiting to see what “leadership techniques” the Russian Army will use to force “hundreds of thousands” of untrained conscripts to actually fight. I’m sure that violence against these conscripts will play a big role in getting them to obey, but there’s a risk when the officers do that. The conscripts will (presumably) have rifles, and they will outnumber the officers by a huge margin. Do the math.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): He’s a Russian nationalist. He may be interested in reforming the corrupt Russian government and economy and politics and society, but his good government/governance ideas are still rooted in the foundation of Russian nationalism. The patronizing attitudes about Ukraine and towards Ukrainian are woven into the warp and weft of Russian nationalism. Would he be significantly better than Putin? Without a doubt. Is he capable of moving beyond his previously stated nationalistic position? I don’t think anyone knows.
jl
And unless Putin has gone really mad, he must know the game is up, unless he wants to blow up the whole world out of spite. India and China have more or less publicly told Putin to knock it off already.
I don’t know what India can threaten; I don’t know how badly they need the cheap oil they’ve been buying from Russia. China is a different story. It has given great lip service to Russia, trotted out some troops for military exercises, but all of its actions since the invasion have been designed to turn Russia into carcass to pick over for economic and geopolitical advantage. I forget whether it was Gen McCaffrey or Hertling, but one of them said early on that to understand China’s intentions, you pay attention to what they do not what they say.
I’ve been listening to a finance professor, Patrick Boyle, who has an interesting youtube channel. He’s had several pieces on the economic and financial aspects of the Ukrainian invasion. According to him, even the Chinese purchase of Russian oil is a scam on Putin. They blew off Russia’s request for aid, cut them out of any international investment projects, shut down at very inconvenient times Chinese financial services that Russia depended on after everyone else pulled out, and more.
So apparently after you follow all the money channels, China is getting Russian oil very very cheap and Russia is getting very little cash for it. A lot of it is sent to China in lieu of debts that China went to some lengths after the invasion to ensure that Russia couldn’t pay.
The long term irreversible costs to Russia may not be Western sanctions but the way China played Putin for a damn fool.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
He did claim to want to do another “honest” referendum:
But he seemed very wishy-washy and still tried to claim that it was basically impossible for Crimea to be returned to Ukraine and it was essentially a done deal, mentioning that 2 million Crimeans now have Russian passports.
In essence, he didn’t seem to want to actually try to solve the problem. Maybe, this is like with Obama and same-sex marriage early in his first term? Maybe he feels differently privately but couldn’t say otherwise for both electoral and personal safety (being arrested by the authorities) reasons?
His comments condemning Trump’s ban from social media never sat right with me, I must say. He was coming at it from an “anti-censorship” POV, but Trump incited a riot and a coup using social media; he proved how dangerous he was
Adam L Silverman
@jl: They’re cannon fodder. This is a tactic, technique, and procedure (TTP) from the Soviet Army that was used in WW II. Use the poorly trained conscripts to draw enemy fire, then target the enemies positions, then repeat over and over. The modern Russian Army didn’t really change anything doctrinally they inherited from the Soviet military.
Andrya
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): There aren’t just good guys and bad guys, but also partially good guys. (Think FDR sending back the SS St. Louis, sending hundreds of Jews back to Nazi occupied Europe, or Theodore Roosevelt inviting Booker T. Washington to dinner at the White House- which mortally offended the emissaries of imperial russia. Think Winston Churchill refusing to remediate the Bengal famine.) I’d call Navalny a partially good guy (and no one could impugn his physical courage). He did use one of his court appearances to denounce the Ukraine war (link).
jl
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks, what a cheerful plan. But to do that, you have to be able to move the cannon fodder around in a timely and organized way. Soviet generals in WWII had the skill to do that. How about now?
I read a news story that Russia has stripped out its troops between Kaliningrad and Finland. So now, maybe the Baltics could take St Petersburg if they felt like it?
joel hanes
@Roger Moore:
The Nazis did the exact same thing. They decided some children in the occupied areas of Eastern Europe were sufficiently “Aryan” to save. They kidnapped those children and gave them to German parents in the hopes of Germanizing them.
Reminders:
Early in the Trump maladministration’s family separation program at the southern border, a group of “most adoptable” children freshly taken from their families were sent thousands of miles to the Bethany adoption agency associated with Betsy DeVos, for placement with suitably white and evangelical families.
And in the 19th and 20th centuries, both the US and Canadian governments took the kids of their indigenous/First Nations people and sent them off to “Indian School”, where the governments made every effort to erase the children’s native cultures . Many of those children died and were buried in mass graves, and their parents never learned what became of them.
zhena gogolia
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): He’s not perfect. But he is rotting in jail because of standing up to Putin. So I’ll give him credit for that.
jl
Also, some other good news, which we badly need, is that I read India and China publicly, but in indirect diplomacy speak, told Putin he can take his plans to rebuild the old USSR and shove it up his ass. Apparently Kazakhstan and China are formulating big plans to bypass the vicious goofus to the north for transportation projects.
I don’t know how serious Putin was with his rebuild the USSR talk. Maybe it was just for domestic propaganda purposes?
zhena gogolia
@Dan B: He has spoken forcefully against the war. From prison.
Anoniminous
@jl:
China has just crawled out of 183 years of foreign plunder, enforced opium importing and sales, foreign domination, revolution, civil war, World War 2, another civil war, all kinds of mis-govenment, and then – finally – political stability and economic development. It is worth noting China’s GDP in 1978 was 149.5 billion (USD,) in 2021 China’s GDP was 17.46 trillion (USD.) China isn’t going to risk that to support Russia, a country they really don’t much like and who stole 350,000 square miles of Chinese territory when they had the chance, in a war that matters to them not a whit.
zhena gogolia
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): 2017 was a very long time ago
Geminid
@Frankensteinbeck: I wonder if any other countries will recognize these annexations. Serbia’s Foreign Minister said they woild not. Maybe Belarus will.
zhena gogolia
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Alexei Navalny will never be the leader of Russia, so it’s pointless to try to imagine what he would do if he came to power. He won’t.
Mike in NC
I’m watching “Fahrenheit 451” from 1966, which Republicans take as a training film.
Redshift
@jl:
What? How could that be? The wingnuts I saw on Twitter were going on about Russia and China setting up alternate payment systems and alternate oil exports, so all the sanctions would have no effect!
(Like Tucker, they were disturbingly gleeful about the prospect of Russia and China having their own system free from American pressure.)
Margaret
@Anoniminous: Apparently this is a well known folk song in both Ukraine and Poland. On Sept 1 of this year, the anniversary of Germany’s invasion of Poland in WW2, the Ukraine Ministry of Defence used this song as the soundtrack for a beautiful short video thanking the people of Poland for their extraordinary support of Ukraine and Ukranian refugees.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1565309566836957188
Grumpy Old Railroader
When i got to the “There was a Senior Defense Official/Senior Military Official (SDO/SMO) backgrounder at the Pentagon” I read the briefing and skipped the Q&As. Did I really miss anything by ignoring press questions?
Yeah, I didn’t think so either
Cameron
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: The kidnapping might have something to do with Putin’s conception of history, picturing him as a 21st=century sultan with an army of janissaries.
jl
@Anoniminous: I agree. I just noted that it is good news that China has finally decided that it has prepared the Russian economic carcass for picking to its liking, and is now publicly telling Putin to go shove it.
My only disagreement is that China does give a whit about the invasion because it was bad news for China’s Belt and Road initiative, which was running into trouble anyway due to growing corrupt boondoggle projects and white elephantitis. China lost a lot of investment money they sent to Ukraine. But I guess to properly pickle Russia for future picking they didn’t talk about that publicly. My take is that ‘royally pissed off’ is a better bet, and why I don’t believe the story that China in any way assented to or agreed with an invasion plan, even if Putin did inform them ahead of time.
bbleh
Graham says the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine should be seen as an attack on NATO itself
Seriously?! Can you imagine the howling that would occur if a Democratic Senator said anything remotely like this, especially during a Republican administration?
Once upon a time I believe he was due a little respect for such service as he rendered, but now …
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): “Try to involve Ukraine.”
Fuck that noise. Navalny is just another russian imperialist. He thinks he, not Putin, should be tsar of all the russias. He’d probably be a little less likely to heave his opponents out 5-th floor windows, but a friend of Ukraine he isn’t.
Chetan Murthy
@Cameron: I remember long before the war, over at Window on Eurasia there were articles about how Russia was acutely aware of their demographic problem, and that power elites in Russia thought it was a big, big problem for Russia being a Great Power. You need a population, in order to support a large economy and a large military, went the thought. IIRC this was the rationale for gathering in White Russia and Little Russia to Mother Russia: increase the population. When that didn’t work so well, I guess Putin thought: “well at least I can grab all the kids and
re-educatebrainwash them”.I’m sure Rashists have their version of “Kinder, Kuche, Kirche”.
coin operated
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
Nope…you’re not alone in reading the briefings this way.
jl
@Redshift: I highly recommend Patrick Boyle’s youtube channel. It’s hard to pin him down ideologically, his views range from quite progressive on some topics to way too center right for my taste on others.
But I think he has five or six pieces on the economic and financial aspects of the invasion. Some of his takes haven’t aged well, but I think most of them have been spot on. Anyway, he says China isn’t paying Russia a dime for most of the oil.
Edit: he has an interesting piece on how the recovery of the ruble is really a sign of the damage that Western sanctions and Chinese economic sabotage have done, rather than an indictor that Russia’s economy is doing better than expected.
Anonymous At Work
What comes after Lyman? Or is Lyman and sieging Sieviervondontesk (spelling but trying) the last steps before winter?
Also, reading on polar vortex, saw an early prediction that this winter would be a cold one in Eastern Europe.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@zhena gogolia:
Point taken
@zhena gogolia:
Indeed
@Andrya:
People can be complicated
Anoniminous
@jl:
What China wants from the ‘Stans is stability. My guess is they first looked to Russia to keep things calm. Now that Russia’s power is slipping they will look to do it themselves. China’s written history goes back to 1250 BC. They’ve had thousands of years experience paying-off or outright buying local warlords/strongmen. They’ll chalk it up to the Cost of Doing Business and keep on keeping on.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Yeah, I didn’t care for his response, honestly
evodevo
@Roger Moore: Same thing happened in Argentina during the military dictatorship in the Seventies…that’s one of the things the Plaza de Mayo protests were about…
jonas
@Dan B: In which case, why is he opposed to Putin? Putin is an ardent nationalist who wants to destroy Ukraine. So the problem is…? Navalny just thinks he’s the one to do it better or something? That’s not the impression I’ve gotten from following his story the past several years, but maybe I’ve been missing something…
Frankensteinbeck
@jl:
I’d say all the evidence, from public statements to intelligence leaks to his actions, agree that he is 100% serious and considers it his life’s work and it has just turned to flaming shit in his hands. He will never accomplish it and he is sticking his fingers in his ears and shouting “LA LA LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU” now, with that mix of denial, desperation, and also knowing the chance is gone. I would be really scared of an “If I can’t have the world, no one can!” scenario, but given his general paranoia, it seems clear to me that he values his life even more highly than his imperial dreams and is too scared to try mutually assured destruction.
jl
@Gin & Tonic:
Time for a little devil’s advocacy, maybe. I read a piece, with some contemporary documentary evidence, that at the time the Soviet Union broke up, Russian leadership, including Gorbachev, sincerely believed that Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine were Russian and should stay with Russia. So, maybe imperialist or maybe a difference of opinion, at least among sane Russian leadership (who are now in jail, house arrest or had oopsies near high windows). Whether vile imperialist, or war criminal, or trying to be treated fairly, depends on how Russian leadership wants to deal with it.
There is a video of one of Putin’s officials, before the invasion, saying (paraphrase) “you know, we have a lot of treaty and negotiation options to solve our gripes, why not try that?”. Putin publicly humiliated him, threw him out of the room, and he did some jail time.
Of course, now that we know what Putin’s Russia has become, any negotiations that give Russia control over Ukrainian territory merits a ‘hell no’ even if Ukraine can’t get it all back. Which may mean a long term frozen conflict, at least until Putin and his gang of reactionaries are thrown out of power. But, Putin seems to working a plan to get that done too, with his mobilization plan to murder more Ukrainians and his own people.
Chetan Murthy
@jonas: A number of knowledgeable people (like Amb. McFaul) have regularly pointed out that many of the Putinist talking-heads we see these days, were all pro-Western reformers back in the 90s. They believed in trying to improve Russia, sure. But at root, they also all believed in Russia. In. Russia. And that means believing in Russian Imperialism, in Russia’s “special destiny”. Perhaps you’ve heard phrase “third Rome” used to denote Moscow? It’s all about Russian greatness. Someone can be a reformer, a believer in trying to improve Russia, and still believe in the Russian Empire. I mean, in a way, that’s what Peter the Great was, wasn’t he?
Bill Arnold
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
“Senior Military Official” directly denied that the US was involved in the NS gas pipelines sabotage. Since these briefings have been notably meticulously honest, this is interesting.
Some possibility that it is in small part pushback against Mr TC and allied scum in the USA. (IMO)
Russian Media Just LOVING Tucker Carlson’s Coverage Of Great Satan America’s Attacks On Pipelines! (Wonkette, Evan Hurst, September 29, 2022)
Eolirin
@jonas: He’s anti corruption and pro democracy, and wants a better Russia, but he still thinks Russia should be an imperial nation and doesn’t fully recognize Ukraine as having a right to an independent identity.
Someone like Navalny is probably the best you can hope for, given that a staggering number of people in Russia seem to hold that view. But in terms of Ukraine’s best interests, there are no good Russians.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
That’s incredibly sad; that very few people, specifically elites, in Russia can’t seem to see the problems with that kind of nationalism/imperialism or recognize that the Ukrainians have a right to self-determination
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): As recently as the 1980s, homophobia was rampant in the US, including among liberals. It’s not exactly gone away either. As recently as the 1970s, I suspect most Americans still believed that our foreign policy (our empire) was, y’know, an unalloyed good. We have a lot of work still to do.
Russia is no different. Only, they’ve been ruled by dictators for so long, they haven’t had a chance to start fixing things.
NutmegAgain
@Chetan Murthy: Yes–but then, Putin is throwing away the lives of so many Russian men, in their theoretical prime productive years. You know, steal some people, kill some people. Wash rinse, repeat. It’s insane, but that’s a given.
Martin
@Frankensteinbeck: It’s a risk of Russia kidnapping them, but if western nations do need to retaliate, having a bunch of their citizens near the targets becomes a problem.
Martin
@Anonymous At Work: I would think Ukraine would want to keep pressing during winter. Russia is at such a logistics disadvantage that winter only makes things harder for them.
Torrey
@bbleh:
Graham is trying desperately to look like a statesman.
Ruckus
@Ksmiami:
Your handle speaks of a name from other lands than this one.
Most all of us have stories from the past, some are farther back, some are rather recent. But few of us have long ago stories from this land. There are more than a lot would admit, some of the native civilizations are well over a thousand yrs old. I have stories going back 2 generations and some of those stories are suspect. According to one story I am only second generation American on one side, likely only third on the other side and I have no real information other than where the first here came from.
Chetan Murthy
@NutmegAgain:
I’m reminded of Normal Angell’s book The Grand Illusion, published just before WWI, in which he argued that war between great powers was impossible, b/c nobody would benefit. And then, well, a few years later, he was proven wrong (about the war, not the “nobody would benefit”, which turned out to be true). I’m also reminded of how Germany thought they needed conquest in order to become a great power; turned out, what they needed was to focus on their own people, their own economy, and make peace with their neighbors; voila, they became a great economy and great power. No need for war and conquest.
He’s irrational, no doubt about it. But then, given the situation: the incompetence and corruption of the Russian state for many decades, maybe it’s the only way he sees.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
Other than the passage of time what would make them change?
I’m not going to speak to military normalcy, as I was enlisted during a war and a lot of what I saw in my time in did not really make me think a lot of any military. The one thing about our military is that we actually do train people to do their jobs but making many feel good about the military just seems a suckers job. It may have been the war I served during and I did have solid and often good experiences from many of the places I visited but the concept of why the military is the way it often is may be lost on me. I made the highest rate I could, as early as I could in one enlistment so I’m thinking it’s not me that’s the issue, but it may be some of the people that make a career of it.
Chetan Murthy
@Ruckus: I’ve read that Russian rulers have never wanted competent well-organized militaries. B/c those could overthrow them. They’ve always ensured that military leadership was incompetent and that the armies were poorly-organized and -supplied. Until Russia becomes a modern nation, a modern well-run nation without just massive amounts of corruption, it seems unlikely that Russia’s military will change from the current model.
Jinchi
I’m really surprised these oligarchs haven’t moved against Putin yet. He’s clearly decided to clean the slate. Probably
to replace them with preferred actors.
Bill Arnold
A spirited vivisection of the arguments of American apologists for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine:
How the Anti-war Camp Went Intellectually Bankrupt – Critics of U.S. foreign policy from both ends of the ideological spectrum have found common cause in supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (James Kirchick, SEPTEMBER 29, 2022)
Via digby, who agrees.
Shalimar
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: I think of it as funding 18 more HIMARS now just in case Republicans take the House or Senate and stop appropriating money for Ukraine in January. Better to have them in the pipeline already.
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: First Bloody Bill Kristol, and now Jamie Kirchick? Jesus, when will these indignities end? Why oh why do I have to find myself agreeing with such disreputable wretches!
Putin has a lot to atone for, lemmetellya
Ruckus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
It’s pride. Simple pride.
OK it’s not all that simple because if it was it could be fixed a lot easier. As it is Russia is a country with something to sell that other countries have a need and desire for. If they didn’t they would get rather a lot less respect and excuses for their attitude. They also have a history and a lot of that isn’t all that good but a lot of that is attitude about power and who should have all of it.
jl
@Eolirin: Russia has had a problem with Ukraine for a long time, for generations, many of the intelligentsia thought it should be part of Russia .
I read the wiki article on the history of Ukraine in order to make sure I remembered the stuff OK. Crimea was ‘given’ to Ukraine a year after Stalin’s death, for reasons that I can’t fathom from reading the entries on Ukraine and Crimea.
The Soviet Union did do some weird stunts to allow Ukraine to have a separate international identity, enough to get a vote and seat in the UN, but kind of sorta still be in the Soviet Union. Wiki says the US was part of the deal. The Soviets felt their side didn’t have enough representation in the UN, and doing a stunt to allow Ukraine to vote in the UN was quick fix, from what I read. A total mess.
Well, if Putin did have a legit concern about the status of Ukraine (he didn’t, he just wanted to wreck it), some of his flunkies gave him several ideas to solve these purported problems peacefully. The particular official I saw in a video said (again paraphrase) “Hey Uncle Vlad, how about we finally negotiate the implementation of the Minsk Accords?”. He got kicked in the balls and arrested.
Shalimar
@bbleh: If people are gonna die, Lindsey Graham is in favor of it. He’s a nasty piece of work psychologically.
Jinchi
Putin is probably doing more damage to the Russian economy than all the allied sanctions put together with his ‘press-gang’ style mobilization. He’s managed to remove hundreds of thousands of young men of prime working age, including the ones originally sent in his invasion, the new draftees, the the tens of thousands who have fled the country, and likely many more who are too scared to show up for work or school lest they be dragged away by the recruitment squads. I doubt they can steal enough Ukrainian cars and washing machines to make up the difference.
The British report cited above made an explicit mention of it:
Chetan Murthy
@Jinchi: Emigration is a big deal: you don’t do it lightly. But once you’ve emigrated, then going back …. well, again, it’s a big deal. Maybe not as big a deal as the first move, but still, it’s not nothing. He’s pushed a lot of valuable workers to emigrate. Gonna have knock-on effects for decades.
Ruckus
@Chetan Murthy:
They want efficient militaries that answer to the leaders every whim and demand. And that takes a lot of effort to get and create and maintain. We as a country would like that as well but our secret is that we kick out leadership every 4 or 8 yrs. (Which is of course why it took a complete moronic ass to be the first to attempt to fuck that up.) This keeps the effort to screw our country by a leader a lot harder to do. Why do you think rethuglicans have been/are trying to make voting much more difficult and one sided? They have no other way to remain in power because a lot of people know that them remaining in power is not good for the country or it’s citizens. Russia is rather used to shitty leadership, grift, corruption and knowledge that an average citizen is very, very likely to be nothing more for their entire life. Most everything in Russia is a scam. Why should the government be any different? And no this isn’t the only country that’s ever been like this, many have been some still are. Many have improved/changed a lot over the last few years because communications opens a lot of eyes and can create focus on what’s possible.
Ruckus
@Chetan Murthy:
A second thought here.
A lot of the problem with Russia and like countries has always been grift and corruption. With this kind of country the seemingly only way to get ahead is grift and corruption, always shake hands with monetary objects passed. It corrupts everything within the country. Need a job to feed your family? Have to bribe someone for a spot. Want a raise? Want a better place to live? Want a decent education for your kids? You have to play the game. In a country like ours, not run by rightwing nut fuckers, there are a lot of opportunities. Yes you still have to work and learn to think for yourself but the possibilities exist to have a reasonable life. You may never live in a mansion, have maids and butlers, an art collection, etc but you can have a reasonable life. You can even run for president. If SFB can do it, anyone can. (of course all he did was fuck up everything because he’s SFB, but still..)
Spadizzly
Every year on 29-30 SEP, we light Yahrzeit* candles in memory of my grandfather, who died 10 years after the war ended, and his brother, my great-uncle and namesake, who was murdered at Babyn Yar, along with his family, in ’41. Some of their names can be found here:
http://babynyar.gov.ua/en/victims_list
Ten years after the massacre, by a lucky accident of birth, I was named for my great-uncle in a shul in The Bronx.
A miracle of soviet engineering was a dam to contain industrial waste from nearby factories, and in the spring of ’61, when I was 10, heavy rains resulted in a mudslide that inundated Kyiv’s low-lying Kurinivka neighborhood killing as many as 2000 people.
This being the soviet shitpile regime, the magnitude of the true death toll would be suppressed decades, as they would admit to “only” 150 or so. Their high regard for human life on display, the soviet fascists exhumed bodies from the muck, only to be re-buried in various Kyiv cemeteries, being sure to juke the dates of death in order to conceal the magnitude of the tragedy.
You could read about it here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20140627070454/http://www.archives.gov.ua/Publicat/Kurenivska_tragediya.php
Wasn’t until independence for Ukraine that a proper memorial would be constructed, for what amounted to a true international killing ground, claiming over 100,000 souls of various ethnicities.
And the ruscists follow in the footsteps of their spiritual brothers as they bring death to Babyn Yar and beyond.
слава україні!
ми переможемо!
Spadizzly
@Gin & Tonic:
Wouldn’t that be too obvious? Much more believable that the official cause of death was 3 self-inflicted gunshot wounds to the head.
YY_Sima Qian
I don’ think Chinese entities (government, SOEs or private enterprises) are executing a coherent grand strategy of systemically weakening the Russian economy to pick over the carcasses. They are avoiding secondary sanctions from the West, because continued access to Western markets & Western (specifically the USD) dominated financial system, & Russia does not offer nearly enough offset these risks. Chinese entities, of course, will also take advantage of the moment of maximum Russian weakness to drive the hardest possible bargain, to maximize their own interests, as everyone else doing the “straddle” have done. The net result of these practical/selfish actions, however, is to further entrench Russian economic & technological weakness.
A key lesson for Chinese government & Chinese corporations is to further reduce exposure/dependence on Western financial system, just as the tech war has focused the minds of Chinese government & corporations to reduce the dependence on Western technology, but these are long term projects. Chinese corporations have already substantially diversified away from Western markets compared to 1 or 2 decades ago, but proactively exiting Western markets is not the sane strategy for diversification (those in DC advocating active decoupling from China to reduce vulnerability/exposure should take note).
Chinese interests are best served by a Russia strong & effective enough to be a nuisance & distraction to the US, an effective partner for Chinese strategic initiatives, capable of handling the security dimension of maintain stability in Central Asia, but not so disruptive/threatening as to push the EU into the US’ arms & solidify a Western coalition in opposition to China, & weak enough to be reliant upon Chinese support. When Putin agreed to integrate his Eurasian Union Project w/ China’s Belt & Road Initiative, these purposes were already served. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, the course of the war to date, & the repercussions, were counterproductive to Chinese interests in just about every dimension.
The land component of the BRI (the “Belt”) does not work if there is a collapse in central authority in Moscow, or if the capacity for governance has so far degraded that Moscow could no longer coordinate among the local regions. The alternate land routes from China to Europe involves crossing the Caspian & the Black Seas by ship, or passing through Iran/the Caucasus/Türkiye, cross too many borders & customs checks, too many changes in modes of transportation, & are close to too many unstable regions, to be economically viable.
Russia’s hegemony over its historical imperial “near abroad” is clearly faltering. It is not just the renewed hostilities between Azerbaijan /Armenia & Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan, but other Central Asia Republics are publicly rebuking expression of Russian chauvinism & imperialism. If Russia can no longer play the role of the security guarantor in the region, China would have to pick up at least some of the load, which is a very unfamiliar & uncomfortable position for the leaders in Beijing. China is happy to sell weapons & dual-use tech. to anyone willing to pay, but Beijing has historically been very wary of getting stuck in the quagmires of local politics & civil wars.
YY_Sima Qian
On the subject of the sabotage of the N1 pipeline, Emma Ashford has a useful Twitter thread parsing the possible candidates for the culprits:
By far (orders of magnitude) the most likely culprit is Putin himself, to put the energy squeeze on Germany without being seen to shut off the valves, & create Force Majeure so preempt lawsuits against Gazprom for shutting off gas supply in winter, & to potentially eliminate paths toward eventual de-escalation. None of the other possibilities considered are at all likely.
I do think she overlooked another possibility: rogue elements in the intelligence/security apparatus of the US/Poland/Baltic States. Still quite far fetched, far enough to be in CT territory, but at least more plausible IMHO than governments of the US/Poland/Baltic States ordering the sabotage. If caught, revelations of such sabotage would break the anti-Russian coalition, & rock NATO & the EU to their foundations, so I find it hard to believe even a rogue faction would be so shortsighted & tunnel visioned.
Geminid
The 20 multimission radar and the “suite” of counter unmanned aerial system equipment that we are supplying Ukraine seem intended to defend against Iranian-supplied drones. These are now beginning to have a tactical impact on the battlefield.
The Iraqi Kurds sure could use some counter-drone epuipment. Earlier this week Iran started shelling Kurdish areas near Irans northwestern border, they say in retaliation for Kurds smuggling arms to their Iranian brethren. The strikes escalated on Wednesday to include drone strikes on Kurdish villages and militia formations (Iranian expats and like-minded Iraqi Kurds have organized militia groups hostile to the Iranian regime).
The US State Department said an American was among those killed in these strikes. He was described as a civilian but not identified. Also, Barbara Starr of CNN reports that an American F-15 shot down an Iranian Mojer-6 drone that was headed towards Ebil, where the US militatary mission to the Kurdish Region of Iraq is based.
This mission was shifted from a combat to an advisory role last year. Strictly speaking, its role is to aid forces in Kurdish Iraq fight ISIS, but the US has had a role in helping Kurdish Iraq defend itself ever since the first Gulf War, and I would not be surprised if Pesh Merga units deploy to the border area and bring along some US-supplied Stinger missiles.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: The Iranian strikes against the Iraqi Kurds is a real departure in Iranian foreign policy action, & one I am struggling to understand.
For a long time Putin & Khamenei were described as cynical, calculating, aggressive, but ultimately rational. Then 2022 came around. Had Iran continued to operate predictably & rationally, it could have maintained substantial support & sympathy in face of US pressure. (After all, it was not Iran that pulled out of the JPCOA.) I guess the domestic situation is so bad that the theocratic regime really needs the foreign distractions.
Let’s hope Kim & Xi do not follow suit. I have zero reason to believe that they will, but then I didn’t think Putin would invade Ukraine or Iran would launch massive attacks against the Iraqi Kurds, either.
Barry
@Frankensteinbeck: “Is that about nuclear threats, or is it about Putin being a mean, petty asshole who would arrest Westerners or press-gang them into his army just to give a middle finger to us?”
The latter, is my guess.
Barry
@Frankensteinbeck: “Is that about nuclear threats, or is it about Putin being a mean, petty asshole who would arrest Westerners or press-gang them into his army just to give a middle finger to us?”
The latter, is my guess.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Critics say the Iranian strikes are intended to distract from the current protests inside Iran. It also could be that the regime, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that is said to have made the attacks, regard the Iranian exiles as a real threat. Mahsa Amini was an Iranian Kurd, and protests began quickly in Kurdistan Province and the regime’s repression of them has been severe. Iranian expats and their Kurdish brethen may be drawn to the struggle.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Not sure military strikes are the most productive way of managing the threats posed by the exiles based in Iraqi Kurdistan. Historically, Iran would have resorted to assassinations, & perhaps buying off parts of the Iraqi Kurdish establishment to reduce the space for the exiles to operate.
Geminid
AP reports that a Russian strike near the city of Zaporizhne this morning killed 23 Ukrainians and injured dozens more. The regional governor said Russian forces targeted a relief convoy intended to evacuate civilians from Russian-held territory.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: The Kurdish-oriented news site Huldaw.English has reported some on this situation. Evidently tbe militias know Iran has spies in the mountainous border region.
I don’t know much about the political relations between the Kurdish Region and Iraq’s central government except that they are complicated. Iran has a lot of clout in Iraq, and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) may need to keep the expat-Iranian militias under some control.
I’m not sure how the KRG will react to the shellings and drone strikes. These attacks have killed over 16 people, including civilians, and may well continue..
This spring Iran made a ballistic missile strike on a private compound in Erbil. This attracted attention because the US Consulate was nearby. Iran claimed responsibility and warned the Iraqi Kurds not to assist other countries hostile to Iran. Later there were reports that Israel’s Mossad had used the compound as a “safe house” from which to organize an attack on a drone base in western Iran.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Interesting! Thanks!
BTW, this is among the long term repercussions of the drone strike campaign waged from GWB to Obama to Trump administrations. Sooner or later other geopolitical powers will feel they are entitled to do the same to preempt or retaliate against perceived threats.
O. Felix Culpa
@Geminid: Fuckers.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Drones are a technology accessible to countries that do not have the capability to manufacture warplanes efficiently. Iran recognized this in the aftermath of the war with Iraq. Turkey and Israel are two other nations that have developed drones and for their own use and for export.
According to a recent Jerusalem Post article, the Israeli Defense Force has announced that it will now use drones to attack people in the West Bank it says are threats to its military and civilians. Israel has used drone strikes in Gaza; the recent 4-day battle with Islamic Jihad began with a strike that killed a commander Israel claims had ordered an imminent cross-border attack.
But up until now, Israel has relied on raids by ground forces to suppress alleged terrorists in the West Bank. These are almost a daily (or nightly) occurence recently, and aside from the one in which an Israeli soldier killed the Al Jazeera’s woman journalist, they get little attention here.
Andrya
BigJimSlade
Babi Yar is also the subject of Shostakovich’s 13th symphony:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEyDiOon0jg
charon
@Andrya:
I am just reading the editorial at the Post, very interesting reading regardless of what you think of Navalny:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/30/alexei-navalny-parliamentary-republic-russia-ukraine/
charon
More from Navalny:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/30/alexei-navalny-parliamentary-republic-russia-ukraine/
BigJimSlade
@charon: Thanks for those – they represent some fine, clear-headed thinking!
way2blue
@japa21: I found a Tom Waits (!) version that’s appealing (if you are okay with his gravely voice) as it leaves some words in Italian.