First off, what you guys did yesterday was amazing! Over $5,000 raised for our flash fundraiser for Catherine Cortez-Masto in less than 4 hours!
But we’re so close to the election now, and there’s no rest for the wicked weary. :-)
As I mentioned on Tuesday, David Plouffe talked about how critical Nevada is for this cycle, for executive offices like governor and secretary of state. There are also 3 toss-up House races in Nevada this cycle (NV-01, NV-03, NV-04).
We met Mercedes Krause (NV-02, not a toss-up) when she joined Four Directions for our zoom in August, where they give us the scoop from on the ground in NV. I think she is doing really well, and NV-02 is such a huge district that it includes land that borders on 4 different states!
So we’re back to thinking about NV-01, NV-03, and NV-04. It turns out that Almost Retired knows someone who is well-connected to the political scene in Nevada, and she says it’s Susie Lee (NV-03) who really needs our help.
I have reached out to Four Directions to see how well that matches up with what they are seeing on the ground. I’ll let you know as soon as I hear back from Four Directions.
In the meantime, I have added Susie Lee (NV-03) to our list!
Elaine Luria, Gabe Vasquez, Marcy Kaptur, and Sharice Davids – our original four – are each within $300 or $350 of the $5k goal for each. So as soon as those they people reach $5k, I plan to take them off our list for whatever time it takes to get everybody to at least $3,500. At that point we’ll add everybody back in for folks who want to continue to support those candidates.
Unless you customize the amounts, donations to this thermometer will be split 8 ways. But I hope that within an hour or two we can make that an 8-way split because we will have reached $4,500 for each candidate marked with an * below.
*Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)
*Sharice Davids (KS-03)
*Gabe Vasquez (NM-02)
*Elaine Luria (VA-02)
Current Recipients
Susan Wild (PA-07)
Josh Riley (NY-19)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03)
Eric Sorenson (IL-17)
Tony Vargas (NE-02)
Yadira Caraveo (CO-08)
Susie Lee (NV-03)
Mercedes Krause (NV-02)
Winnable House Races Purple Districts
If you want to learn more about the folks on the list, click on the Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 tag up top and check out some of the other posts in this series.
Here’s where we’re at right now:
And just so you know where we’re headed after this, it’s the Election Protection in Key States thermometer, which will be a series like this one. Only we’ll be rolling out key races that have a huge impact on election protections, like Secretary of State, or Governor. We’ll also be including a few Attorneys General – like in Wisconsin, where it’s the State AG who controls the elections, not to mention that AGs will have a huge impact on abortion access in particular states.
Reminder: all of the targeted fundraising thermometers for this fall (so far) are in the sidebar, and also at the link below. I have a link to each one in the sidebar now. The link doesn’t show the thermometer itself, but it takes you to it. I thought it might be easier to remember what all the options are if they are listed.
All Targeted Fundraising Thermometers
Totally open thread!
Update at 5:45 pm
Having met Mercedes Krause – she is quite impressive – I made the wrong assumption. I assumed that her race (NV-02) was not a toss-up because she was expected to win. But that’s not the case. She is a fierce candidate and fierce campaigner, but the powers that be believe the Republican incumbent will win.
But the folks at Four Directions think she may be able to pull it off. So I’ll be adding Mercedes to the list in a minute. If anyone wants to give to Mercedes, specifically, you will have to customize your amount in the thermometer.
Bret at Four Directions will personally match up to $1,000 of Balloon Juice donations to Mercedes, and if we get there, he will add $1,000 of his own money to our thermometer. He believes that any funds we can get to Mercedes at this point will be helpful, so I would like to be able to get her and Susie Lee $5k each. (and everyone else on this list, but they are the two newbies today)
So let me know in the comments how much you have donated to Mercedes specifically, and I’ll track that for Bret’s match.
Bret said that the Native peeps are VERY EXCITED about Mercedes, as she is Native herself, and he believes that she will help bring out the native vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.
Sean
Pretty critical that Dems retain the House or this is our future next fall. I’d call my senators about a lame duck reconciliation effort if they weren’t Ted Cruz and John Cornyn.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/29/trump-maga-house-2022-elections-debt-limit-democrats/
Also, too:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/five-alarm-fire
WaterGirl
@Sean: Republicans will be perfectly happy to burn the house down, if they get a chance.
Geminid
Marcy Kaptur’s opponent Richard Majewski keeps stepping in it. Last week he was caught lying about serving in Afghanistan when he was actually loading Air Force planes in Qatar. Now the AP has checked out his story that he had faced charges in connection with a barracks brawl in 2001. They found that he was charged all right- with a DUI.
Calouste
@WaterGirl: Look at what the Tories are doing in the UK right this minute. People can’t even get a mortgage at the moment. Although the Brits seems to be somewhat smarter, as there was a poll that had Labor leading by 33 points (and some others with a ~20 point lead). Can’t see that happening in the US.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: So his story that his service duties were “secret” or whatever he called it, didn’t fly?
Sean
@Calouste: I’d love to think it would happen here, but I agree, Americans aren’t going to dig into the why and how of something like the debt ceiling. They’ll blame dems and Biden. God knows what that results in when the voting starts in 2024.
I constantly remind myself that no one really knows what is going to happen in the future, but it’s clear a very determined set of lunatics are hell bent on ensuring the worst possible outcome for literally everyone.
H.E.Wolf
Thank you to WaterGirl for a savvy and well-targeted (and no doubt labor-intensive) approach to campaign fundraising! It’s exciting to get to know these candidates.
No time for alarmism, we have stuff to do. :-)
Matt McIrvin
@Sean:
Any price? Uh-huh. Suppose they tell Biden “sign a national abortion ban, abolish Social Security, admit that the 2020 election was fake, name Donald Trump your VP and resign to make him President, or else we default on the debt,” you suppose he’ll do it? It’s kind of like Putin figuring he can get anything he wants by threatening to launch the nukes.
sab
Not on your list but I am concerned about our candidate in Tim Ryan’s redistricted district. Our candidate is great with years of government experience. Their candidate is basically Marsha Blackburn with a law degree. Also with a beauty degree. Also on RWNJ talk radio. I think she had her own show.
ETA Our candidate is Emilia Sykes.
Apparently everyone is writing us off. Ideology aside, our candidate is so qualified and theirs is such an idiotic hack that I can’t believe there is even a contest. And yet ours might lose. Probably will. Emilia should have spent less time on governing and more time campaigning this year. Easy for me to say when she was in that nutzo statehouse.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I think trump even backed Majewski on the “secret duty” story. But that could have made people all the more certain that Majewski was lying!
But I haven’t looked into the reaction of people in the district to the story. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee dropped Majewski like a hot potato, so they definitely thought the story was gonna hurt him. I’m hoping it has; Kaptur’s an excellent Representative.
sab
OT When peoples people disappoint them they just start to psychologically adjust.
When peoples dogs disappoint them the dogs just try to be friendlier. Its weird. Dogs mostly cannot be good enough to meet peoples expectations, but they keep trying.
Repatriated
@Sean:
Trillion. Dollar. Coin.
Sean
@Matt McIrvin: Sorry, the pull quote you’re referencing lacks a bit of context, I didn’t want to copy/paste the whole article. What Josh Marshall is saying that raising the debt ceiling via reconciliation in the lame duck session is the only way to avert the catastrophe of being faced with just such GOP demands. Centrist democrats are scared of raising the debt ceiling that way because of electoral consequences. Marshall is saying any short term price to pay for the reconciliation gambit pales in comparison to the GOP hostage taking and ultimate default fallout they might face in the future.
Repatriated
Nym and email addy typos put my previous comment into moderation. Sorry!
sab
@sab: My husband had debilitating back surgery this summer.
He is safe on his own this fall, so I can canvass.
Eunicecycle
@sab: I am in the new 13th, too! And Emilia’s opponent is totally unqualified. But she worked on Trump’s campaigns. Blech. She is supposed to be from the town I live in but she is definitely not well-known. I am sending Emilia some money; I hope she can pull it off.
WaterGirl
Update and correction:
Having met Mercedes – she is quite impressive – I made the wrong assumption. I assumed that her race (NV-02) was not a toss-up because she was expected to win. But that’s not the case. She is a fierce candidate and fierce campaigner, but the powers thing the Republican incumbent will win.
But the folks at Four Directions think she may be able to pull it off. So I’ll be adding Mercedes to the list in a minute. If anyone wants to give to Mercedes, specifically, you will have to customize your amount in the thermometer.
Bret at Four Directions will personally match up to $1,000 of Balloon Juice donations to Mercedes, and if we get there, he will add $1,000 of his own money to our thermometer. He believes that any funds we can get to Mercedes at this point will be helpful, so I would like to be able to get her and Susie Lee $5k each. (and everyone else on this list, but they are the two newbies today)
So let me know in the comments how much you have donated to Mercedes specifically, and I’ll track that for Bret’s match.
Bret said that the Native peeps are VERY EXCITED about Mercedes, as she is Native herself, and he believes that she will help bring out the native vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.
WaterGirl
@Repatriated: No problem! I made your nym and email in the last comment match your nym and email for this comment.
So you are all good.
WaterGirl
@Eunicecycle: @sab:
We really can’t afford to fund long shots this time around. Does it seem like she has a decent chance of winning, even if conventional wisdom doesn’t think so?
Or is it that there really should be no doubt that she’s the best candidate, but it’s pretty clear that she will win?
Repatriated
@WaterGirl: Thanks!
H.E.Wolf
Here are my notes [originally posted on Aug. 11, 2022, in the Four Directions Zoom post]:
Mercedes’ campaign website: https://mercedes4nevada.com
Mercedes spoke for the first ~ 20 min. of the 1 hour Zoom session.
Mercedes excerpts:
– We do things in an intergenerational way – the kids are there with [wide] eyes] – elders are there too.
– Important to connect – to create and sustain relationships in other states with members of the Native community.
– Elections are won by margins of 2-3% and that is the % that is the native community. [27 tribal communities, 64,000+ native persons in NV.]
– Environmental issues are so important, and our Native community is known as stewards of the land.
– Abortion (reproductive rights) will be a big issue this year.
– (voter) registration and participation: Elko and Washoe counties are big.
– Elders can ask: what are you [a politician] going to do? It [politics] is about making things better.
WaterGirl
Update: I have removed the original 4 names that we started with – they all have $4,500 or more.
That leaves 8 candidates still listed as recipients.
Once all 8 candidates reach $4,500, I will add everyone back in.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: It did the funky formatting thing from the copy, let me know if you want me to add spacing to make it easier to read.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Emilia Sykes is definitely not a long shot to win the Ohio13th CD. At least, the 13th CD is on 270to win.com’s list of the fifty or so most competitive Congressional races.
mvr
I just kicked in $25 across the bunch. Not sure if that is worth noting here or not, but just in case it helps with a match . . .
Happy to see Tony Vargas on there as well as the rest.
H.E.Wolf
Yeah, I saw that, but I went back in and fixed it before I saw your comment. Thank you, though! Much appreciated.
(No idea why sometimes I have all mod cons with commenting, and other times it’s a shared WC down the hall and cold water only. Such is life!)
WaterGirl
@mvr: Yeah, maybe the best idea for this match is to just let Bret know when we get Mercedes up to $1,000, and then he can add his $1k through the thermometer.
Thanks for donating. Now that the first 4 are out (for now) the remaining people can climb a little bit faster
I would really like everyone who makes the list to get to $3,500.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: Good to know! Maybe we can add her to the list, putting it back up at 9. :-)
The question is, would our $2-4,000 make a difference in that race, or is her race already really well funded?
WaterGirl
@mvr: Thanks to you, Mercedes is on the board!
Geminid
@Geminid: When I was trying to find a rating for Emilia Sykes’s race (doggone Cook’s requires a subscription!) I ran across Roll Call’s “At the Races” article put up today. “At the Races” is a smorgasbord of notes about polls, endorsements, campaign ads, etc. One of the items was about Alaska’s new Representative, Mary Peltola, and how she hired a couple of the late Don Young’s staffers- both Republicans- to serve on her staff. Seemed like a smart move to me.
The article also said that Ms. Peltola’s campaign slogan is “Fish, Family and Freedom.” Love it!
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I will report back!
But maybe not until the next post in this series. Third quarter FEC filings will be out soon.
Eunicecycle
@Geminid: Yes the most recent filing shows Emilia had $40,000 less than Gilbert but that was in June. I just got an email that said she was $13,000 short of her goal for the quarter. I know they always say that! But I contributed anyway! I am so excited there is a chance to be represented by a Democrat!
H.E.Wolf
Regardless of whether Emilia Sykes is added to our list, she seems worth reading about! Always good to see yet another awesome Black female politician in the early stages of a great career.
https://www.emiliasykesforcongress.com/about
WaterGirl
@Geminid: I wondered about that too, with the Sept filings.
How quickly does official word get out? I seem to recall that a lot of campaigns announce it as a power move if they got a good haul.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: Is it wrong that finding you that she’s black makes me more likely to add her to the list?
edit: You’re so good about going to find out more about someone and telling us more about them. thank you for that.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I think FEC filings usually trickle in the week after the quarter ends. Then the FEC posts them.
Eunicecycle
@H.E.Wolf: she comes from a family of public servants. She would make a great Representative.
H.E.Wolf
Re: Emilia Sykes:
@WaterGirl: ”Is it wrong that finding [out] that she’s black makes me more likely to add her to the list?”
@Eunicecycle: ”she comes from a family of public servants. She would make a great Representative.”
Folks from under-represented groups are often stellar, because that’s what it took for them to get where they are. So, yes: I’m of the opinion that we’d be wise to support Black women and other women of color!
C Stars
OK I donated $15 to Mercedes and split up $19 among the others. Just felt like donating $34 I guess.
WaterGirl
@C Stars: Thank you for that! Mercedes is nearly at $100! ($94.01)
Not bad for only part of a day!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Calouste:
@Sean:
Why? What makes the British apparently so special compared to Americans? They (narrowly) voted for Brexit and have continued to return Tories to power so far. If they can turn against the Tories (if polling is accurate), then why can’t Americans correctly blame the Republicans?
Kent
@Repatriated: Yes, MINT THE COIN.
H.E.Wolf
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Off-topic, but FYI: Postcards To Voters is writing to OH Democrats for the next few weeks!
C Stars
@H.E.Wolf: This is good to know. I just finished a batch for Georgia (through my church, not P for A) and it was so calming. Might need to get another batch to get me through October.
H.E.Wolf
@C Stars: ”I just finished a batch for Georgia (through my church, not P for A) and it was so calming. Might need to get another batch to get me through October.”
That’s exactly why I do it, too. :) It’s very meditative, and it also feels like “hands across the miles” to other Democratic voters elsewhere in the country.
If anyone else is interested, but hasn’t dipped their toes into the water yet: [email protected]
You start with 1 postcard to get enrolled, and you can do batches as small as 4 from then on. You get 3 full days to write and mail your batch, and Postcards To Voters gives you the exact wording (3 sentences, provided by the candidate/campaign) so you don’t have to come up with the right words on your own.
Avalie
Added $50 to Mercedes and $50 to Susie Lee
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@H.E.Wolf:
Sounds like something I’d be interested in! 👍
Thanks!
H.E.Wolf
Go ahead and sign up! You only have to try it once and if you don’t like it, you can stop – they don’t hound their writers. Plus, you don’t want to be telling yourself 馬鹿 on Election Eve because you didn’t give it a go! :-)
http://PostcardsToVoters.org
WaterGirl
@Avalie: Our newest people on the list, thank you so much.
Mo Salad
Mercedes Ulysses.
I can’t follow every race and have been kind of brain locked as to where to donate.
I’ll trust your call on this one and I just dropped fiddy.
Now to shoot for 3 more hours of sleep. I AM NOT ON AMBIEN!