In a late comment today, Greg Landsman (OH-01) was suggested for inclusion in this list. My first thought again was “yes!” But it’s now Oct 4, so I think maybe we should wait for the quarterly fundraising figures, which we should be seeing really soon.
Let’s see what Mary Peltola’s race and Greg Landsman’s race look like funding-wise, and then decide. If our money can make a difference, I would love to see us add both of them. If it turns out that they are swimming in money, we’ll let others support them and we’ll donate where our money isn’t salt in the ocean.
Information from Kathleen:
Ironically, the new map for OH#1 favors Landsman. Cook rates OH#1 a tossup.Here is link to excellent article which includes video of Landsman debunking Chabot’s lie that he voted to defund police:
Here’s some information on Greg Landsman from the Red to Blue Report:
Greg Landsman is running to flip Ohio’s 1st District from Red to Blue. He has dedicated his career to making life better for children and families and is running to make sure the residents of OH-01 are well-represented in Washington. His GOP opponent, Steve Chabot was first elected 27 years ago and has spent his entire career fighting against the interests of his constituents. He voted against the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, proving how out of touch he is with this southern Ohio district. Chabot even voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election. It’s clear that Greg is the type of leader OH-01 needs now.
After decades of advocating for issues affecting children and youth, Greg was elected to the Cincinnati City Council. During his tenure on city council, Greg advanced comprehensive legislation on issues like eviction prevention, good government ethics, criminal justice, and equitable, growth-centered development. He fought consistently for youth jobs, affordable housing, comprehensive preschool, domestic violence prevention, small business support, and helped raise wages for city workers and strengthen relationships with local labor unions.
Since being redrawn, OH-01 has shifted and the divide has narrowed, giving Greg a real opportunity to unseat Chabot. There are easily 100,000 new voters who have never voted for Chabot. The GOP spent over $10 million to keep Chabot in this seat in 2020 and are expected to spend even more to attack Greg’s record of fighting for families and putting their interests first. Greg Landsman needs to raise at least $3.5 million to flip OH-01 from Red to Blue.
We met the $1,000 match – thank you to the matching angel! Thanks to that and your donations, we were able to pause two more people – Susan Wild (PA-07) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03) – which gives us a chance to get everyone to the goal amount.
Here’s where we stand right now:
Unless you customize the amounts, donations to this thermometer will be split 7 ways.
These 6 have reached at least $4,500 each, so they are currently paused on the list.
*Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)
*Sharice Davids (KS-03)
*Gabe Vasquez (NM-02)
*Elaine Luria (VA-02)
*Susan Wild (PA-07)
*Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03)
*Mercedes Krause (NV-02)
Current Recipients
Josh Riley (NY-19)
Eric Sorenson (IL-17)
Tony Vargas (NE-02)
Yadira Caraveo (CO-08)
Susie Lee (NV-03)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13)
Up for Consideration Once Fundraising Figures are Released
Mary Peltola (AK-01)
Greg Landsman (OH-01)
Winnable House Races Purple Districts
If you want to learn more about the folks on the list, click on the Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 tag up top and check out some of the other posts in this series.
Here’s where we’re at right now:
Reminder: our next thermometer will be Election Protection in Key States, which will be a series like this one. Only we’ll be rolling out key races that have a huge impact on election protections, like Secretary of State, Attorney General, Governor, and possibly pivotal judges on state Supreme Courts.
All of the targeted fundraising thermometers for this fall (so far) are in the sidebar, and also at the link below. I have a link to each one in the sidebar now. The link doesn’t show the thermometer itself, but it takes you to it. I thought it might be easier to remember what all the options are if they are listed.
All Targeted Fundraising Thermometers
Totally open thread!
H.E.Wolf
It’s great to see the donations adding up. If all politics is local, then these rising politicians are now in the Balloon Juice neighborhood!
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: Ha!
If we can get$51.51$25.08$17.84 more for Mercedes Krause (NV-02) then she will be at $3,500.That’s less than the $4,500 for the others, but Mercedes really is in a different category than the rest. Her race is not a toss-up, but there is a chance she can win and she WILL help bring out the Native vote as Four Directions says folks are very excited about her.
And who knows, she may win!
edit: I decided to get Mercedes to $3,500 myself, so she is at $3,500 and is officially paused.
Once we get everyone else to $4,500 we can un-pause everyone, including Mercedes. $3,500 will be a nice haul for her, and Bret thinks she can definitely put it to good use.
lifeinthebonusround
I just threw in another $150. If I go broke, will y’all keep me afloat? :)
WaterGirl
@lifeinthebonusround: Of course we will! :-)
WaterGirl
I got my booster last night, so I’m gonna go back to bed for awhile. I will be back in an hour or two in case there are any questions or more nominations!
We have 7 candidates paused, 6 that are active, and 2 where we’re waiting for fundraising updates.
HinTN
@WaterGirl: I sent you an email about postcards.
Also too, got bivalent boosted and geezer flu shot Friday afternoon and Saturday it was a struggle to muster the energy to do anything. Hang in there.
Sister Golden Bear
Benw
@WaterGirl: feel better! The booster can be a mofo
Jackie
@Sister Golden Bear: I’m really rooting for her to get ousted!🤞🏻🤞🏻
Leslie
I will throw some more in the pot when I get paid tomorrow.
@Sister Golden Bear: Wouldn’t that be something? They’d hear me in Shanghai if she lost. Is her opponent well funded?
Dangerman
@WaterGirl: I got my binary booster last week; that makes 2 Johnsons (hello, now THAT would be a binary) and 2 Pfizers. The binary only maybe made me tired (it could be other things so can’t assign blame for sure). I hope I am done for a while.
Geminid
@Leslie: The quarterly FEC reports will show how Boebert’s opponent is doing money-wise. He’s probably doing well. Candidates who run against notorious Republicans tend to attract lots of money. Marcus Flowers, who is running against Marjory Taylor Greene in the Georgia 14th CD, has cleaned up even though that is a very red district.
Leslie
@Geminid: That’s what I suspected. I’m happy that we’re supporting several of the lesser-known races.
Geminid
@Leslie: Right now this is just a guess, based on how other obnoxious Republicans seem to attract big money to their opponents. A particular aspect of the “negative partisanship” dynamic.
Ohio Mom
That was me who said this (my) district should be at least competitive but I don’t see much hard work on the part of Landsman. I am not optimistic about his chances, even as I have sent him (a little) money.
But I am a very foul mood right now. Maybe I’ll come back later if I cheer up.
WaterGirl
Think about whether we want to try to get everyone to $4,500, which would take another $9-10k. If we go for $3,500, that would be more like $4k.
So let that rattle around in your heads and chime in tomorrow.
Remember, we have the Election Protection in Key States fundraising coming up after this one. We could also get folks to $3,500 and then fundraise for this Purple thermometer AND the Election Protection at the same time.
Like I said, think about it and weigh in tomorrow if you have an opinion.
edit: I am strongly leaning toward getting the rest to $3,500, un-pausing all 13 of them, moving on to promoting the Election Protection thermometer, and then figuring out if we want to add anyone after the Sept 30 fundraising figures come out.
BlueGuitarist
as you know, I think it would be good to fund down ballot candidates – state house, state senate, especially where those overlap winnable districts for US house, and statewide elections, and where the state legislature could be flipped, or a veto proof majority prevented.
1 contributions matter more to down ballot candidates, because most have so much less
2 down ballot candidates are more likely to use funds for direct voter contact, most likely to get people out to vote.
3 the “reverse coattails effect” down ballot candidates bringing friends and neighbors out to vote benefits the top of the ticket – estimated .4% to 2.3% – more than the margins in crucial elections, so
Focusing on overlapping winnable districts can be successful even if those candidates don’t win, if they help candidates up and down the ballot win.
eachother
The thermometer is such a good idea. Compelling. Has magnetic attraction. Like it’s filled with iron filings.
BlueGuitarist
The deadline for filing 3rd quarter reports is 10/15, and there might be a lag for a few days before they are available. Candidates can file before the deadline.
Not a criticism of election forecasters for not being perfect, but
at this point in 2020 Cook rated the seat Warnock won Lean R and 5 others that Rs won as tossup
and in October 2018 Cook rated 3 seats Lean R, 2 Likely R, and 1 solid R that Democrats flipped (to be fair, 4 of those flipped back in 2020).
but there’s a big difference between
solid R – Greene’s seat, Biden -37 and
“solid R” PA-01, Biden +5,
where combat veteran Ashley Ehasz is challenging anti-abortion incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick. Like Pat Ryan in the special election in NY-19 she’s connecting her military service to freedom at home including choice. She hasn’t raised a lot of money, in part because the seat is rated solid R. But it’s similar to NY-19. The R candidate in that ny-19 special carried the district by 11 points when he ran for governor in 2018, I think the solid R rating for PA-01 is because Fitzpatrick carried it by 11 points even as Biden won it,
Also “solid R” WI-01 Biden -2
where the pro-choice candidate challenging r incumbent is
Ann ROE.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: I hope you will at least reprise this series from time to time. Aside from the practical fundraising value, it is a good way for people to learn about the Democrats running in purple districts. And some of them (I hope most) will be in the next Congress!
eachother
Also, dividing it among so many gave my sum a look of needing sum more.
Magnetic and magical. Contributing lifts my immunity too.
Geminid
@BlueGuitarist: A fun Fitzpatrick (PA-1) fact: he was one of only two Republicans to vote for the assault weapons ban. Like Fitzpatrick, the other represents a relatively affluent suburban district. Hers is in the San Diego area, while Fitzpatrick’s is near Philadelphia.
lifeinthebonusround
@BlueGuitarist: This.
WaterGirl
@BlueGuitarist: Yeah, I’m trying to look at what you sent me. I think it makes a lot of sense. Maybe bug me by email if you haven’t heard from me by Friday
I just need folks like you to do a lot of the work because I have a lot of balls in the air right now, so we need to rely on you guys for some of the research.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: All the targeted fall fundraising thermometers are in the sidebar, even if I am not actively promoting them. The idea is that folks can choose the ones that speak to them the most.
BlueGuitarist
@Geminid:
true; Fitzpatrick votes with Biden more than any other R.
but he didn’t support a lot of consumer protection, or fair elections, or codifying Roe, or increasing information in domestic terrorism. Dude was FBI and now wants to ignore terrorist threats.
maybe insurrectionists and Dobbs might melt the moderate mask
BlueGuitarist
@WaterGirl:
👍
Good luck juggling!
Geminid
@BlueGuitarist: Fitzpatrick’s vote might be dragged down by the two candidates at the top of Pennsylvania’s Republican ticket, Mastriano and Oz.
The PA-1st CD reminds me of the Virginia 10th, where Barbara Comstock hung on against a growing blue tide until she lost her hold in the blue wave of 2018. Fitzpatrick might hang on this year, but he could be the last Republican to represent the 1st in this decade.
MazeDancer
And we have addresses to write PostCards for:
Elaine Luria, Marcy Kaptur, Yadira Caraveo, Emilia Sykes, and Susan Wild
PostCardPatriots.com (or just click my nym)
Kathleen
Thanks Water Girl!
RaflW
@Sister Golden Bear: Wow.
I didn’t even have Frisch on my spending plan. But I just added him!
I won’t get too excited, but even seeing the race tighten by 5 points is excellent, and a ton of movement, and early enough to leave room for a shocker. Whoo.
RaflW
@Geminid: Frisch has lent himself $715,000. So at least thru the last filing (June 30?) he’d self-funded much of his $1.1 million. Nothing like some of the more prominent MAGA-fighters.
Boebert has raised $5.5M, because of course she’s got a national incumbency platform, and her army of idiot choads.