I was listening to Pod Save America a couple of nights ago, and I could feel my anxiety level rising as the show went on.
Oh. My. God.
Anxiety. Not a way to get us anywhere good!
🐠
Here’s all we know about the election results in November.
We could win both the House and the Senate.
We could lose both the House and the Senate.
We could win the House and lose the Senate.
We could win the Senate and lose the House.
Repeat for Statehouses, Governors, Secretaries of State, Attorneys General, etc.
🐠
THAT IS TRULY ALL WE KNOW.
The polls have been unreliable for quite some time, and everything is on the line.
There could be a blue wave or a red wave; we could win by a landslide or lose by the skin of our teeth.
🐠
WE JUST DON’T KNOW HOW IT WILL TURN OUT.
There are three ways we can influence the outcome:
Our time.
Our money.
Our attitude.
That’s it!
🐠
OPPORTUNITIES
Write LETTERS for Beto O’Rourke
1. Request a batch of 20 letters using this form: https://act.betoorourke.com/go/LetterRequest
2. We will email you a PDF of 20 letters to print and personalize with your hand-written reasons for supporting Beto.
3. You’ll provide postage and envelopes, and hold the letters to be dropped in the mail on October 19th.
You can read our letter writing instructions here: https://act.betoorourke.com/go/LetterWritingHub
You can find our talking points here: https://act.betoorourke.com/go/TalkingPoints
We also hold regular virtual letter writing trainings. To join us, sign up at betoorourke.com/write.
Spend A Week (or More) on the Ground in Arizona
- This could be a great opportunity if you are retired our out of work for some reason.
- It costs about $1,000 per person for one week, but the cost can be covered by the organization.
- Your flight and lodging will be arranged for you. I believe they cover one meal a day, also.
- You are given one day of training, and then you are working the ground for the rest of the week.
If anyone is interested, we can share more information.
Write Postcards
Earlier this week we talked about Postcard Patriots. It’s great to have different – and complementary – approaches. Some people will prefer one style, some another. With Postcard Patriots, the writers create their own talking points. With Postcards to Voters, you receive talking points that are pre-approved for use.
Postcards to Voters: Fun, Friendly Reminders to Vote (for Democrats)
Volunteer writers provide their own postcards, stamps, and time.
Writer sign-up is by smartphone or email. You write 1 postcard, with the information PTV provides. As soon as that’s been reviewed for accuracy (normally a short turnaround time), you’ll get the go-ahead to write with PTV.
Postcards to Voters coordinates with Democratic campaigns, including candidates in “red” states. Each campaign provides “talking points” and address lists to PTV. “Scare tactic” messages and negative messaging are prohibited.
Postcards To Voters provides addresses upon request: by smartphone, email, etc. Postcards To Voters also provides the 3 required “talking points” (as OK’d by the specific campaign staff), and a list of optional extras. Sticking to the exact wording is required, as it is part of their arrangement with the various campaigns.
Writers may request 4 or more addresses at a time. FAQ
Main website: https://postcardstovoters.org/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/democratwit
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TonyTheDemocrat.org/
Email: [email protected]
or text JOIN to Abby The Address Bot at 484-275-2229
Open thread!
WaterGirl
If anyone has experience with any of these groups, I hope you will chime in
If you know of any other ways to volunteer, let us know that in the comments, too.
Also, open thread.
Craig
Thanks for this. I appreciate all that you do here.
raven
The antidote to anxiety is watching this pup get saved
FelonyGovt
Postcards to Voters is a great organization, which makes it very easy to do as many postcards as you have time (and postcards and stamps) for.
I’m kind of spoiled lately, though, because my local ladies’ Huddle group gets addresses from campaigns and supplies them to us, along with postcards, stamps and a script. All we have to do is pick them up, write, stamp and mail them in exchange for an optional $10 donation.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Hershel Walker went on Hannity and said abortion is being used to distract voters from economic issues.
Wow – I didn’t have Walker exposing gop doctrine on my Bingo card
Math Guy
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: That was the old plan. The new plan is to use economic issues to distract from abortion.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: and today Jared’s business partners announce they’re cutting production. It’s enough to make you get out the tinfoil and make yourself a hat.
WaterGirl
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: A little thing like no longer being able to control your own body, the choice of whether to have children, to choose your own future?
How dare people think that important!!! Well, I never!
Elizabelle
@raven: Bentley! Yay, firefighters and public works.
What a pretty dog.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: I thought you all were happy as vessels. Live and learn, I guess.
Seriously, I am not sure the GOP really understands the radicalization and rage that they woke in women.
H.E.Wolf
I’ve had a good experience with Postcards To Voters, having signed up in 2019 and written sloooowly ever since.
As one of the other postcard writers commented a week or two ago, it’s calming to do something small which is focused on the goal of electing more Democrats. I appreciate that Postcards To Voters allows for those of us who want manageable-size assignments. Which, in my case, is tiny: one batch of 5 cards at a time, over 3 days. :) Knowing that my 5 cards are part of a river of other cards is a very good feeling.
The founder lives in a purple state (GA) and believes strongly in the long game. One of their projects is to write for candidates in “red” states, and lay the groundwork for victories the 2nd time around by letting Democratic voters know – via postcard – that they haven’t been forgotten. It makes for some great addresses!
I even had the good luck to write to the Possum Capital of the World (google it) at one point. It’s tough to stay anxious while drawing little pictures of possums carrying “VOTE” signs.
Elizabelle
I start canvassing for Virginia congessional candidates in a few days. Volunteering.
With work from home: voters are more likely to be home during daytime hours than in previous election cycles. In the fall, it always becomes a race with the fading light, at day’s end.
If you like walking and being outside, look into doing some canvassing, on weekdays as well as weekends. You will run into the occasional jerk at the doors, but a lot more thoughtful people who are glad to see you out there. You can reassure them that our races are winnable, but they have to vote. And work their social circles.
And: remind them to vote early. For one thing, once their vote is received, the voter’s name comes off the list of prospective voters given to campaigns. Less phone calls and door knocks (yay!), and we want to bank those votes as much as possible.
Omnes Omnibus
@H.E.Wolf: Are we sure possums are Dems?
Elizabelle
@H.E.Wolf:
I would like to see that!
H.E.Wolf
@Omnes Omnibus: “@H.E.Wolf: Are we sure possums are Dems?”
They asked to be drawn like one of those Democratic possums!
Ohio Mom
About polling: I have been called on our landline and asked my opinions close to once a week for the two months, twice this week alone (and it’s only Wednesday!).
Sometimes I can tell they are push polls (“Did you know this (fill in the blank) about Candidate X, does that make you more or less likely to vote for him?), but most of the time they don’t seem to have an agenda.
Now maybe if someone else in this household would ever pick up a ringing phone, the pollsters would get a somewhat broader sampling. But I don’t see how so many pollsters calling little old me is helping the cause of collecting good data.
H.E.Wolf
They came out looking like pear-shaped, long-nosed mice with funny feet… but I figured that residents of the Possum Capital of the World would know what I was aiming for. :)
raven
@Elizabelle: Nice story I thought!
Omnes Omnibus
@H.E.Wolf: Draw me like one of your French girls
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes! They are liberators for sure, we are greeting them with flowers and candy!
Elizabelle
@raven: Thank you for sharing it.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Oh boy.
H.E.Wolf
@Omnes Omnibus: “@H.E.Wolf: Draw me like one of your French girls”
*snort* That’s hilarious.
MY possums were quite modest critters (both in pose and in artistic quality).
Old School
@Omnes Omnibus:
I believe Pogo ran for president, but I’m not sure he was part of a party.
UncleEbeneezer
I’ve had great experiences with Postcards To Voters, Tony The Democrat, and VoteForward.
For anyone doing postcards, you can get Dem/Voter themed postcards here.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus:
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I love that so much!
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: The sign is blue.
UncleEbeneezer
One thing that is worth mentioning, is that even if you don’t want to talk to voters or knock on doors, canvassers also need people to team up with to drive and navigate for best efficiency. I’ll be doing this on October 16th for the Christy Smith campaign. I’ll be joining two of my Indivisible members. One will drive, and I will navigate so the canvasser can hit as many doors as possible and minimize her time in the sun/heat. You can reach out to the local campaigns, your local Dem headquarters or SwingLeft if you have one.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: That’s how you know it’s a democrat. :-)
MazeDancer
Also, don’t forget text and phone banking. While some may think this is irritating, so is dying from lack of abortion care and Speaker MTG.
At PostCardPatriots.com. we will quit sending out addresses at the end of this month, because mail, and put up links to phone/text banks on the web site to candidates that have same.
Until then, come get addresses for close House Races. And free, original PostCard designs to download.
Email: PostCardPatriots at the Google Mail Place.
web site: PostcardPatriots.com (or click on my name)
WaterGirl
@UncleEbeneezer: That’s a great idea!
Argiope
Let’s see….This week I start working on the Ohio Democratic Voter Protection Hotline, so people get real-time information about how to vote, where to vote, how to request an absentee ballot, what ID they need to take with them, what their rights are, etc. I will also be credentialed as a poll monitor to ensure no naughty stuff is going on like CBP vehicles hanging around outside polling places to intimidate voters. Your state Dem party can put you in touch with Voter Protection Hotline training or Poll Monitoring training, and also canvassing opportunities.
so far I’ve knocked on 95 doors and dropped lit. Will do more GOTV canvassing shifts closer to 11/8. I hate starting out on a canvass shift each and every time. I’m just not that outgoing. But once I’m done, I really am glad I went. Last time I got kisses from a one-year old German Shepherd puppy, and I get to see a lot of nice landscaping and plants to get ideas about. I even talk to some pleasant Republicans once in a while when my lists are wrong. Last weekend, I met one who voted for TFG twice and now regrets it. My region is “Midwestern nice” which means even the Trumpy people mostly aren’t jerks to your face, and I don’t have any safety concerns.
My theory is: leave it all on the field. That way, no matter what happens, I know I did what I could. No regrets about coulda shoulda woulda.
FelonyGovt
@UncleEbeneezer: Bless you for doing this. It’s infuriating to have a Republican Representative in Los Angeles County, especially when he won last time by 333 votes.
WaterGirl
@Argiope: What you are doing is so great! That’s the name of the game.
NO REGRETS!
H.E.Wolf
@WaterGirl:
Thank you for posting the possum. :) See, folks, I told y’all I couldn’t draw! (Although the prehensile tail came out pretty well I think)
H.E.Wolf
@Argiope: You are doing awesome work!
hg
Coming to these threads a bit late. I have some change saved up that I want to put to good use this fall.
If I want to make just one (or two) donation, which is the best place to put my money? Most bang for the buck?
UncleEbeneezer
@FelonyGovt: It helps that the woman doing the actual canvassing is a pretty good friend of ours and this will give me something useful to do with my time, while my wife is visiting her family in Texas.
Old School
@hg:
Move one thread down (or left) for “Winnable House Races in Purple Districts.”
Betty Cracker
@H.E.Wolf: I’m writing postcards this year too. Never thought of drawing a possum or other critter on my postcards, but that would make it less tedious!
My current batch is for a House race in Minnesota. I wonder what animal would make sense to those voters?
FelonyGovt
@Betty Cracker: A Timberwolf (whatever that is???)
Omnes Omnibus
@FelonyGovt: @Betty Cracker: Gopher.
WaterGirl
@hg: Well, if you want to help take one of the players off the board (and get them to the $3,500 goal)…
If you customize the thermometer to give to a specific candidate instead of all of them (hit Customize amounts before you put in your dollar amount):
$54.50 would finish off Yadira Caraveo
$142.56 would finish off Tony Vargas
Or you could customize and give to the two candidates we added last, who each need about $700 or $800 to reach the $3,500.
Lots of ways to play it! :-)
Old School
@Betty Cracker: A loon.
RaflW
@WaterGirl: I highly recommend UU the Vote. Unitarian Universalists are some highly organized, smart and effective folks. By their nature the work is nonpartisan. But that doesn’t mean it’s not right on target.
This week’s push is for protecting abortion rights. In Kentucky. Gulp!
But, yes. And to be clear, you do not need to be UU to call, and you won’t be chased around by UUs trying to convert you (at worst, we’d want to have a coffee hour conversation about why conversion and proselytizing are coercive ;) )
Phonebank is tomorrow, October 6th at 6:30pm ET. You can sign up for it here! We’ll be calling voters with Protect Kentucky Access to vote NO on Proposition 2 and protect abortion rights in the state constitution.
Can KY be like Kansas? I think so. But people need to know it’s happening and how and why to vote.
Jackie
@Betty Cracker: Red mosquitoes representing the GQP and Blue mosquito fog in wave formation ;D
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: I immediately think of groundhog when I think Minnesota.
edit: oh yes, i googled minnesota gopher and that’s clearly a great idea.
RaflW
@Betty Cracker: Walleye. They’re tasty, and a challenge to catch.
WaterGirl
@RaflW: That’s great.
I think I’ll add plugs for some of these suggestions in the next Action post.
Geminid
@H.E.Wolf: Possums like to kill ticks and ticks are bloodsuckers. My inference is that possums don’t much like Republicans either.
Miss Bianca
@raven: awesome!
H.E.Wolf
@Geminid: Likewise awesome!
SiubhanDuinne
@raven:
Usually, even if I know in advance that there’s a happy ending, I avoid watching these kinds of videos because they stress me out too much. But I finally did watch this, and my eyes are tearing up again with happiness and relief.
What a gorgeous dog! She is a very, very good girl.
dr. luba
Polling on initiatives in Michigan is amazing.
Proposal 3 (Abortion rights): About 62% of voters said they favor the abortion rights initiative, while 24% were opposed and 14% remain undecided on the issue. The proposal would establish a new state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, “including right to make and carry out all decisions about pregnancy, such as prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, contraception, sterilization, abortion, miscarriage management and infertility.”
Proposal 2 (Voting rights): More than 70% of voters surveyed said they favor the initiative, while 14% are opposed and about 16% remain undecided, according to the poll. The proposal would require nine days of in-person voting for each election, require military or overseas ballots be counted if postmarked by election day, mandate state-funded absentee ballot drop boxes and postage for absentee applications and ballots and enshrine other election laws into the state constitution.
Even if polling is dodgy, those are some impressive margins.
ORSoder
So I’ve been to two different cities today trying to buy enough stamps to mail out the 50 cards I did. We’re in small town Oregon but still would have thought I could buy 50 postcard stamps. I got 15 and was told to check back next week.
The negative view of this is damn that DeJoy! But I’m holding the positive view: a lot of people are sending postcards!
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I only watched part of it, too, because it was so heartbreaking. Glad for the happy ending.
Gorgeous dog,
sheHE must have been so scared.SiubhanDuinne
@SiubhanDuinne:
I started to rewatch, and realised I turned Bentley into a female. Sorry about the Pronoun Malfunction, Bentley. You are a very, very good boy!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Anyone know the context of the latest viral video?
“No one fucks with a Biden”
I think after he says, “you don’t argue with your brother outside the house”
CaseyL
I’m doing postcards, using MazeDancer’s Postcard Patriots designs. They already have the text (and some lovely photos), which is great because my handwriting becomes an indecipherable scrawl after two lines, no matter how much I try to write legibly.
WaterGirl
@CaseyL: Which postcard writing place are you going with?
hg
Thanks for the responses, going to donate now!
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ha! No idea of the context.
Baud
Fixed.
frosty
@WaterGirl: Now that’s a Full Service Blog!
SiubhanDuinne
@ORSoder:
You could probably save gas money and wear&tear on your nerves, and still have the stamps in hand by the time you’re ready to mail the postcards, by ordering from Amazon, or directly from the USPS..
WaterGirl
@hg: I don’t know if it was you or not, but both of these guys hit the $3,500 goal (and a little more)!
Tony Vargas (NE-02)
Yadira Caraveo (CO-08)
So they are both off the board and we have just 2 candidates left to get over the finish line:
Susie Lee (NV-03)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13)
They need $800 and $700, respectively.
Yay for progress!
Just $1.500 more and we will have gotten all 13 candidates between $3,500 and $4,500 each.
hg
@WaterGirl: Yup, that was me.
Anything similar available for the senate side?
WaterGirl
@frosty: I had the image in an earlier email from H.E. so it wasn’t hard to grab a screen capture and put it up.
SiubhanDuinne
@WaterGirl:
Just sent a bit more to these two*. I hope there’s some way of tracking, even roughly, our (BJ’s) financial support of candidates and their ultimate results at the polls in November. Are we making a difference? Having that kind of data available and competently** analysed should help us a lot in our 2024 fundraising targets.
*Lee and Sykes
**So I’m right out.
WaterGirl
@hg: Thank you SO much!
Nothing on the Senate side at the moment, but tomorrow we are starting Election Protection in Key States with Secretaries of State, Attorneys General, and Governors in key states.
These candidates are all running against bat shit crazy Republicans who have stated that they will happily reverse the will of the voters in their states if the elections don’t go their way.
We may do Senate seats after the fundraising reports come out for the quarter than ended on Sept 30. (If any of those are close and they aren’t already rolling in money.)
We will also look at key down-ballot races in key states that could help the races higher up on the ticket. Research not finished yet on those!
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Which two? Tony and Yadira? Or Susie Lee and Emilie Sykes?
In any case, Tony Vargas and Yadira Caraveo have both hit $3,500 and are off the board.
So now it’s Susie Lee and Emilie Sykes who are left on the list. We are getting close now!
edit: I see that you updated your comment with the answers!
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne:
Well, I am data girl, so you know we’ll have that!
There are nice reports in ActBlue, so I can get the overall picture AND I can get the breakdown between people within a particular thermometer.
So between the kind of info you see in the image above and the breakdown like you see at the top of all the “purple” posts, I can get all the information we need about donations. And of course I will match that up with outcomes.
But of course, measuring success is complicated. Someone loses. Did we get them a lot closer than they would have been without us? That means we chose well, even if they didn’t quite make it. Someone wins. Yeah, we can take credit for that. :-)
So the feedback we will get may be more on the bigger picture side. If we give to a bunch of races with bad outcomes where it’s clear they didn’t really ever have a chance, that would tell us maybe we need more/better research. (Hopefully our efforts to avoid that will have paid off this year, but this targeted approach is newer for us, so all feedback is helpful, even if it’s not what we might want to hear.)
But, yeah, we will have data!
Almost Retired
@SiubhanDuinne: We have a contact in Nevada at least who will let the candidates we are supporting know who we are and how much we have contributed. She’s a major democratic operative/lobbyist in Las Vegas. I’m hoping she can give us a post mortem on Nevada in November.
CaseyL
@WaterGirl: This one: https://www.postcardpatriots.com/
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Almost Retired: I’ll buy her a ouija board if she can summon Harry Reid and get him to work that legendary machine of his.
hg
@WaterGirl:
No, thank YOU so much for all your efforts here!
I personally would prefer donating to the senate races rather than the state level. But if that’s not available, I’m happy to donate to whatever you recommend. Looking for your next posts on this.
I’m usually up-to-date on all this stuff, but I haven’t been paying attention this election cycle… (dealing with personal issues)
WaterGirl
@CaseyL: MazeDancer’s designs are lovely!
SiubhanDuinne
@Almost Retired:
Very cool. Thanks for that information.
WaterGirl
@hg: We absolutely need to keep the senate, for sure. We think that, by and large, the senate races are really well funded, so from a strategic perspective, our money may not make a difference there.
We did do a flash fundraiser for Cortez-Masto because it seemed like our money could make a difference there. The link to that is still in the sidebar under Targeted Fundraising. (The thermometer only shows once you click the link.)
We are focusing on key offices in key states that will do two things. First, it will help the whole country if those states have fair elections. If there are people in those offices who will help protect women’s rights to self-determination, that’s obviously a good thing. If they won’t sue the government to fight climate change, for instance, that’s a good thing.
Second, they will have a huge impact in election integrity in those states, so it not only helps the people in those states, but it potentially builds a firewall agains election-stealing in 2024.
The state-level races will make a difference for everyone. But yes, we absolutely need to keep the senate. It’s all I can do to not put up thermometers for Beto, who i think we need desperately. Or for Reverend Warnock, who is not only important for Georgia, but who also elevates the Senate just by being a senator. Not to mention that there’s a crazy person running for the seat on the Republican side.
I struggle all the time to keep my eye on the prize – remembering that we can have the most impact by being strategic with our giving. As much as I want to see Boebert out on her ass, I know that tons of people are giving to her opponent, so they don’t need our money.
Jackie
@WaterGirl: Oh, good! I’ve been sending what I can Katie Hobbs’ (AZ) way.
Another Scott
Good job, peeps!
In other news…
[ womp, womp ]
Of course, if the fees he pays are high enough, he’ll get plenty of other takers. But it’s not over by any means.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Jackie: Yay!
Save your next Katie Hobbs donation for our new Election Protection thermometer tomorrow. :-)
Jay
Mellow passed away at home today. 20 years with us.
Our last surviving pet out of “The Gang”, Little Bit, Mellow, (cats), Casey, Digger, dogs. Passing of an era.
CaseyL
@Jay: 20 years is an amazing run! But that just makes the loss more profound. I am so sorry.
Jay
@CaseyL:
We thought we had lost him a year ago, had stopped eating, but switching him to wet tuna and pumpkin, we got another year of snoozes and snuggles, chasing treats out of him.
It was hard, but he had no pain.
Gretchen
I wrote Postcards to Voters for the KS abortion vote. From the way my lists proceeded, and receipt of cards by my friends, they seemed to be writing to all the Democrats in Kansas. I think it helped!
hg
@WaterGirl: Ok, sounds good to me!
I’ll keep an eye out for your next posts on state level fundraising.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
Extreme introvert that I am, I’d rather slam a car door on my hand than talk to people. But writing postcards is something I can happily do, so thanks for those recommendations. Definitely following up.
WaterGirl
@Jay: I am so sorry.
MazeDancer
@Jay: So very sorry.
While 20 years is an excellent run, it is never enough.
But, clearly, Mellow had a perfect life to stay around so long.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@Jay: I’m so sorry. 20 years is a great run, but that doesn’t make it any easier.
Gretchen
Postcards to Voters are currently working on Ohio Supreme Court elections and Beto/ other TX races.
Old School
@Jay: Sorry for Mellow’s passing.
SiubhanDuinne
@Jay:
Mellow is a great name for a cat. As others have said, 20 years is a good long life — but never quite enough. I’m glad he was in no pain — it sounds as though his transition was as mellow as his name. Hugs and condolences to you.
Mousebumples
@Gretchen: I wrote for Ohio last night, and I think I’ll target Texas tonight. I’m a #PostcardsToVoters vet, and it’s a great way to relax after the kids are asleep, as we’re unwinding before the grown up bedtime.
Turn your anxious energy (if you’re like me) into GOTV and elect more Dems!
ceece
I have been writing for postcards to voters since 2018, and for a few specific campaigns in CA, and for Reclaim our Vote (focused on Black voters in voter suppression states).
each card is 44 cents of therapy for my anxious brain