Or porn…
Two Russian nationals sought asylum in Alaska on Tuesday when they landed by boat on St. Lawrence Island, leaving lawmakers from the state asking the federal government for extra support in case more Russians flee to Alaska amid President Vladimir Putin’s military call-up.
Well that sounds sort of familiar. Thinks back to 2008 reporting about a Sarah Palin porn parody about how the lead actress was now the hottest star on the Republican Party and movement conservative convention circuit.
Checks Wikipedia:
The film opens in Serra Paylin’s living room, when two Russian soldiers knock on the door seeking a tow-truck to lend assistance with their smoldering tank.[7] After some small talk, flirting, and a knock-knock joke, a threesome ensues.[8]
Obligatory!
Welcome to Balloon Juice after dark!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Dear Ukrainians!
An important decision was made today. It’s fair. Legally perfect. Historical.
Ukraine confirmed its respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Japan, including its Northern territories, which are still under Russian occupation.
Today, I signed the relevant decree. There is a corresponding statement of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. And we call on everyone in the world to make similar decisions.
Russia has no right to these territories. Everyone in the world knows this well. And we must finally act.
We must de-occupy all the lands that the Russian occupiers are trying to keep for themselves.
Only in this way can we return the full force to international law. The UN Charter and the entire complex of treaties and conventions on which the international legal order is based will work only when the occupiers lose and the nations in the world are protected from any occupations.
With this war against Ukraine, against the international legal order, against our people, Russia has put itself in conditions – and it is now only a matter of time – of the real liberation of everything that once was seized and is now under the control of the Kremlin.
Russia, by its example, will show all potential aggressors of the world that an aggressive terrorist war in our time is a way to weaken and inevitably destroy the one who starts such a war.
The aggressor must lose. So be it. So that such wars do not happen again and that the peace is really long-term. Nothing should be left for the invaders.
I believe: justice will be restored for our partners as well.
This week alone, our soldiers liberated 776 square kilometers of territory in the east of our country and 29 settlements, including six in Luhansk region, from the Russian pseudo-referendum. In total, 2,434 square kilometers of our land and 96 settlements have already been liberated since the beginning of this offensive operation.
And today I want to mention the fighters of the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade and note their heroic efforts to liberate Ukrainian land.
There are also good results in the south of Ukraine this week – we are liberating our land and our people there from the pseudo-referendum every day.
We will certainly come to the lands that were occupied by Russia earlier.
I’m thankful to all our defenders who ensure this!
During these 225 days, 29,887 Ukrainian soldiers were awarded state awards. A total of 178 soldiers were awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine.
Such a scale of courage and heroism of our fighters unequivocally proves that Ukraine cannot be stopped.
And each of the Russian attacks, all manifestations of Russian terror – against Zaporizhzhia, against Kharkiv, against Mykolaiv, against Donbas and all our other territories – only prove that the liberation of our entire land is the only foundation of peace and security for all Ukrainians.
Today, I took part in the meeting of the European Council. I thanked our partners for the eighth package of sanctions against Russia and for all the support for Ukraine that is already provided.
We are working together to increase our common capabilities – of everyone in Europe.
Preparations have already begun for important events planned for next week, both in Ukraine and at the international level.
It will be a strong week for our state, it will be a strong week for our defense.
Eternal glory to all those who fight and work for peace for Ukraine!
Eternal glory to our heroes!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kherson:
KHERSON/1400 UTC 7 OCT/ UKR General Staff reports that its air defense has interdicted more than 20 Russian UAVs, including 5 Orlan-10s. 15 Iranian Shahed-136 and a Mohajer-6 were interdicted by Odesa’s air defenses. pic.twitter.com/gBZdlbNsUA
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 7, 2022
Kupyansk:
Ukrainians saving a Russian soldier stuck in rubble after his BTR collided with a wall during an intense fight in Kupyansk. pic.twitter.com/Bd4HNnJZe5
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 7, 2022
If accurate, this is going to be a problem:
For the last several months, Russia has been upgrading the Luninets Air Base in Belarus. New hangars have been created, new protective berms have been put in place and other improvements have been made.
1/3 pic.twitter.com/5Sgk2xKwml
— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) October 7, 2022
This research work is done in collaboration with @DefMon3, @NLwartracker and @ArtisanalAPT. Please consider making a donation to one of us. This helps us purchase satellite images.https://t.co/GMvlR3xwFahttps://t.co/mSIccOuM3dhttps://t.co/qdWRRspV1rhttps://t.co/9TbARCnzBI
— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) October 7, 2022
The Ukrainians struck deep into Russian territory today:
the installation due to cloud cover. The image was taken at roughly 2:45pm local time, we do not know when the drone attack occurred, it could have been after that time. Also, note there are 2 MiG-31 Foxbat interceptors at the base as well as significant air defense capabilities.
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 7, 2022
From The Drive‘s The War Zone:
A Ukrainian suicide drone exploded at a Russian airbase destroying two bombers, two Ukrainian intelligence sources tell The War Zone.
The attack took place at the Shaykovka Air Base in the Kaluga Oblast, about 140 miles north of the Ukrainian border and about 170 miles southwest of Moscow.
The base is home to Russian Tu-22M Backfire bombers from the 52nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment.
“Two bombers are not recoverable,” one source tells The War Zone.
An earlier report by the Ukrainian LB.ua news outlet notes that an “explosion occurred on the territory of the Shaykovka military airfield in the Kaluga region as a result of a kamikaze drone attack.”
LB.ua cited the oblast’s governor, Vladyslav Shapsha, as saying the drone “arrived from the border” of Ukraine.
“According to Russian TG channels, the explosion occurred when the UAV was over the runway.”
But the drone attack caused no damage, Shapsha said on his Telegram channel.
“There were no casualties,” he wrote. “The airfield infrastructure and equipment were not damaged. There are no job threats. An investigative-operational group is working on the spot to establish the causes and circumstances of the incident.”
Russian media has also confirmed “an explosion took place near Kaluga,” according to the Telegram channel of Russia’s RIAnews outlet.
“A drone fell, no one was injured,” RIA reported, citing Shapsha.
Much, much more at the link!
Let’s check in and see how the mobilization is going:
Just found another video filmed by the guy in the centre, he mentions there's about 500 of them, they are all in Belgorod Oblast (bordering Ukraine), and have been living in these conditions for a week.
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 5, 2022
What could possibly go wrong?
Here’s a very interesting and informative interview with Ukrainian COL Oleksandr Ohrimenko. It was originally published at Ukraine’s Army Inform website and translated into English by Dmitri who runs the @wartranslated feed and site:
(Interviewer): Where did the brigade encounter a full-scale invasion?
(Ohrimenko): At that time, the military unit was at the Rivne combined military training ground at the final stage of reconciliation. We marched, having received appropriate combat orders to perform tasks in the Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and partially Volyn regions to cover the section of the state border.
(I): What were your words to the staff on February 24?
(O): Every day, going around the units, I emphasized in conversations with the personnel that we must be ready for any development of events – intelligence data also confirmed this. Therefore, everyone understood that we would have to fight in different conditions. On the night of February 23-24, it was not necessary to say much: when I received the command to raise the brigade on a combat alert, only one word sounded – “It has begun!” [would be one word in Ukrainian] This was the signal by which we had to raise the personnel. At that time, the brigade’s plan and movement route had already been worked out. At 4 a.m., after units of the Russian army struck the territory of Ukraine, we began marching in the designated directions to carry out combat missions.
(I): The brigade then moved to Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr Oblast. How difficult was it? What tactics did you have to choose then, considering the fact that the enemy was superior in strength and means?
(O): Each war and each combat mission requires specific approaches. We must approach everything individually. In our case, the difficulty was, first of all, the width of the defense front. In our case, it was about 300 km — instead of the 20 specified in the tactical regulations. In addition, the march from the Rivne training ground on combat vehicles over such a long distance also required considerable personnel training.
We chose the following tactics: we used small mobile combat groups that could work from ambushes, inflict damage on the enemy, who outnumbered us by a ratio of one to twenty, or even to thirty, and advanced in large columns, battalion-tactical groups, entire regiments, and divisions. It was a “pounce tactic” – two or three tanks, together with anti-tank means, including Javelins and NLAW, would destroy several units of enemy equipment and withdraw in another direction, and so on. This allowed us to disperse the enemy’s forces, to create panic among his personnel since the enemy did not understand where the next attack would come from. Thus, we significantly reduced Russian units’ combat potential, which thought they would march into Kyiv and establish their power there without fighting. In addition, the individual training of each service member played a significant role in our successful actions. Each had his task and performed it with precision.
(I): At what moment did you realize that the enemy was fleeing from that direction?
(O): The turning point was when our brigade and units of the DShV [Ukrainian Air Assault Forces] took and held Makariv and Makariv district. Several advanced combat groups were operating in that direction, led, in particular, by my deputies. Thanks to such actions, on the 51st kilometer of the Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway, the enemy suffered irreparable losses in manpower and equipment and was unable to advance further. So, for example, one of our units, led by a platoon commander, destroyed more than 30 units of enemy equipment in a day around the village of Sytnyaki, and they did not even count how much manpower. After our advanced groups, in which tank units played the main role, working in this direction, the brigade’s main forces entered, completing the destruction of the enemy and pushing him to the state border. In desperation, the Russians began actively, but chaotically, to use aviation to launch missile strikes on residential areas. This indicated that the enemy’s personnel could not cope with the task despite the superiority in strength and equipment. And this became the biggest motivation for our Princely Brigade! We are on our land and know what we are fighting for!
(I): During the large-scale invasion, your brigade fought against the Russians on several fronts. Can you tell us how the nature of the battles in this or that region differs?
(O): Each battle has its character… You need to consider the peculiarities of the terrain, terrain, weather, and season. We began to operate in the winter in the Kyiv and Zhytomyr directions – this is one specific feature. Then, the unit’s path passed through the south of Ukraine. Then there were the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Now — Kharkiv region again. Therefore, the tactics of action, of course, change just as the enemy changes. For example, the regular Russian army has almost ceased to exist, and now it has been replaced by unprepared mobilized ones, which do not meet the requirements. Therefore they are unable to complete the task.
(I): Do you always know which units of the RU army you are dealing with?
(O): Of course, our intelligence works perfectly. I will tell you this – before entering the appropriate area and taking a defensive or offensive line, the scouts reveal the enemy’s order of battle, in particular, the names of the commanding staff of companies, battalions, divizions, divisions, and armies. We study the social portrait of each such official and draw certain conclusions.
(I): And how did the personnel of your Princely Brigade show themselves? What can you say about your subordinates? Perhaps there are examples of the bright, heroic behavior of warriors?
(O): There are many such examples! One of those I can cite is when a tank crew destroyed 12 enemy tanks during the seven months of the Russian invasion! I found out about it myself only recently. I ask – “why didn’t they tell?” To which I received the answer: “What is there to tell? I’m just doing my job. What difference does it make in how many tanks I destroy – three, five, eight, or twelve? I received a task, went out, and completed it.” Our warriors are heroic people who risk their lives and do not flaunt their achievements. They do their job perfectly! And I, in turn, will petition the higher command for the awards they deserve.
(O): If we consider joint actions with other units and other components of the Security and Defense Forces, we cannot talk about any specific role of our brigade in the counteroffensive operation. Everyone fights heroically and performs tasks in incredibly difficult conditions! I always try to understand clearly, first of all for myself, the intention of the senior commander, the ultimate goal, the role and place of each of our units, and the possibility of changes during the execution of combat missions. I am trying to predict the enemy’s actions in this or that situation. I rely on the actions of my neighbors and units that support us in making decisions. During the last seven months, our brigade fought in six directions while defending only one and advancing on five. I think that the particularity of our brigade consists precisely of offensive and assault actions in breaking through the defense of individual areas of the enemy, creating conditions for his encirclement.
(I): Purely hypothetically, how do you assess our offensive actions in Donbas?
(O): Everything depends on the enemy — composition, position, and balance of forces. It is possible to carry out tasks in any direction. Still, the success of any operation depends on the availability of weapons and ammunition, preparedness and motivation of the personnel, tactics of the enemy, etc. – this is a systematic approach. I do not undertake to assess the strategic situation in the entire operational zone, but I think that if we create the appropriate conditions and increase the combat potential, taking into account artillery and aviation, we can also talk about a counteroffensive in Donbas. I can say with confidence that the command has this goal. But I will not tell you the details.
Much more at the link!
Someone asked in a comment the other night, I think it might have been either Allison Rose or Andraya (did I spell that right? One too many “a”s?), if I’d seen the reporting that someone in the US intel community had leaked that the Ukrainians were responsible for the death of Daria Dugina; that it was an attempted targeted assassination of her father. Here is, I think, a very good assessment of that reporting:
Interesting the U.S. IC is leaking this now. A warning, perhaps. https://t.co/IeisBSa1MT
— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) October 5, 2022
Also, there has been frustration among Western allies that Ukraine's battlefield plans aren't being telegraphed, even with so much Western security assistance. When asked what he's got cooking Zaluzhniy replies: "Killing Russians." Kyiv's opsec is impressive and also purposive…
— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) October 5, 2022
Especially if it does something it was expressly told not to.
— Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 (@michaeldweiss) October 5, 2022
Given The Intercept‘s recent reporting that the US Intel Community inaccurately assessed the start of the re-invasion, Weiss’s assessment is, I think, very probable.
I think that’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video – really a new pastiche of older clips – of Patron at his official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Не віддам!😝 #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption translates as:
I won’t give it back!😝 #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS
Open thread!
J R in WV
OMG!!!
Hysterical !!! Thanks so much…
Wow, Frist too !
Poe Larity
I always preferred Iron Sky Sarah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG2utrMwTyY
Sarah pr0n just doesnt work for me, but who am I to lecture Baud.
Dan B
This post is more like Balloon Juice after midnight, or closing time.
bbleh
So a couple things that struck me, about which more knowledgeable commenters can say more knowledgeable things:
— Re UK MOD, “Re-purposed captured Russian equipment now makes up a large proportion of Ukraine’s military hardware,” after having been re-trained and re-equipped at substantial cost in time, expense and effort, here is a battle-tested army “bilingual” in NATO and Russian equipment. That has to be … unusual if not unique today, no?
— Re Ohrimenko interview, “Each war and each combat mission requires specific approaches. We must approach everything individually,” this seems much closer to Western than to Soviet-legacy command doctrine, no? And perhaps one explanation for how a (well-equipped and supported) David has been doing awfully well against a (corrupt, arguably thoroughly rotten) Goliath? (Also perhaps a new talking point for the “agility” salesmen? But I digress.)
Jinchi
I’m not going to ask how you knew that this would be the perfect tie-in to today’s post. I’ll just assume it has something to do with an unfortunate encounter with Ted Cruz.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
It was me who asked about Dugina–I think you spelled the other name right but added an extra L to mine :P I’m not sure how I feel about the whole thing. I mean, I don’t GAF if Ukraine was behind the bomb, but the US doing this finger-wag in the press just irks me, no matter the reasoning behind it.
I am also still irked about the Nobel shit. Much irked-ness happening!
It’s kind of amazing to me that a country like russia, which always wants to see like Big Tough Competent Men on the world stage, is willingly continuing to put their absolute wretchedness and idiocy on full display.
Thank you as always, Adam, although not for that particular trip down memory lane at the top. Yech.
Poe Larity
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Tolstoy was robbed.
Jinchi
Anybody know what’s going on with this?
Omnes Omnibus
The difficulties of the Russian map maker.
HinTN
Fuck the CIA wanting to control “their client state”.
Tony G
I’m starting to think that the plots of porn movies might not be totally realistic. In real life, the Russian soldiers would have just abandoned their tank, not towed it away to get it repaired.
Dan B
Ohriemenko seems to be describing something similar to guerilla warfare except that’s what the “partisans” are doing.
The Iranian drones sound like an escalation of terror. I hope there are anti-drone and anti-aircraft on their way
And… I got my bivalent booster this afternoon so who knows if I’m making sense. Sigh.
CaseyL
@Jinchi: Musk is turning off Starlink in Ukraine because he’s decided to be pro-Russian. He apparently had a nice long talk with Putin a few days ago.
Dan B
@CaseyL: If so I hope that Musk gets called up by his big tough leader.
Kyle Rayner
I’ve been wondering. Is it even possible for UA to advance southeast of the Dnipro from Kherson once they deal with the enemy forces they’ve trapped, especially if they take out the last/third supply route over Dnipro? If RU can’t supply what’s left of their boys over the river, sounds like UA will struggle to send/maintain an army over the river themselves. Sit tight and make repairs to infrastructure over the winter? Are the bridges repairable, just not for RU under HIMARS threat? Or would Kherson be a stopping point in the region for the foreseeable future and the rest of Ukraine’s southeast territory will have to be liberated with an advance from the north?
Geminid
Back in July, when National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Iran and Russia were planning the transfer of “hundreds” of Iranian drones to Russia, that sounded like an awful lot. Now it seems there must be over a hundred used already. I wonder how fast Iran can build them.
And now that the ceasefire in Yemen has expired without renewal, the Houthis are threatening drone strikes against their Yemeni opponent’s sponsors, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They’ve warned western oil companies to pull their personnel from the two countries to avoid them being hit.
It’s a credible threat. In September, 2019, drones launched from Yemen hit two Saudi oil processing facilities and did substantial damage. The Houthis claimed they had built the drones, but while the Houthis are smart and industrious people they did not build those drones, the Iranians did.
BeautifulPlumage
War Translated also posts threads based on Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov. For 7th October 2022 there are a lot of Russian senior command being relieved of duty due to the huge losses suffered. This is the middle of his thread where it starts with the command changes:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578465141351657473?cxt=HHwWgsDRidvr6ucrAAAA
Adam, is it a good idea to make this many command changes when you’re in Russia’s position right now?/s
Repatriated
@Jinchi:
The official explanation is that the devices are geo-fenced to not work in Russian occupied territory, but the geo-fencing isn’t being updated quickly enough to keep up with Ukrainian advances.
BeautifulPlumage
@Jinchi: another thought from the twitters is that the system has been set not to work in the pre-Feb 24 occupied regions due to sanctions, and UKR has crossed those borders.
I read that it wasn’t working on the front lines but don’t know if that includes Kherson.
ETA and Repatriated said it more succinctly
Ruckus
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
In the world of diplomatic policy an admonition like that is likely to be expected. It is a way to keep a tighter control on wild ass response to something like this. Russia would look like the dipshits they are if they attacked the US after an admonition like that. No matter what went on behind the scenes it looks like the US didn’t do this. If there was some sort of strike back to the US, vlad would look like a far bigger putz than he normally is. Formal responses are not necessarily “real.”
ronno2018
I have never heard of that movie mentioned above and I have never watched it or googled for it. This is the truth. Sort of…
Poe Larity
Is nothing sacred
Lyrebird
Thank you for yet another very informative update Adam!
And yes, you’ve got an extra “a” if you mean regular commenter Andrya.
I do not understand why Dugin would be so important as a target to make it worth Ukr’s involvement.
I also don’t understand this:
While there’s a current investigation of whether a former Pres has been selling top secret info, why would they telegraph those? If Vindman was a Senator and Rand Paul was sweeping the streets as part of his community service sentence, that would be another story entirely.
I don’t think Ukrainians are perfect, they are human like the rest of us. Their military actions have been incredibly careful, though. In a choice between the NYT editors and the Ukr military leadership, I know who I would trust.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Who’s Nailin’ the Mets?
Jay
hrprogressive
Zelensky quoted as saying Russia “preparing their society for nuclear war”
This seems, uh.
Well.
Does Zelensky know something the US wouldn’t know/wouldn’t say?
Because this is a bold set of claims IMO
Shalimar
@Lyrebird: Dugin has basically lost influence and isn’t someone Ukraine would target for military reasons. He is still a vitriolic propagandist though, the main person who helped Putin put together his bullshit fake history about Ukrainian inferiority. Someone who plans and approves operations might hold a grudge for that and see now as an opportunity to take him out.
Mike in NC
I’d almost forgotten about the “Nailin’ Palin” video thing. Maybe it’s available on YouTube!
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: As I said (I think) in reply to Alison Rose the other night, if it were the Ukes, icing Dugin in Moscow would be a real statement. It’s not that he is of strategic importance, but he’s a real loudmouth, and Putin is influenced by him. Everyone knows who he is. I could see some people blowing him up just for the lulz.
Repatriated
@BeautifulPlumage:
…but I did some cleanup on mine after you posted, so you got there before I was entirely done.
:)
Adam L Silverman
@Jinchi: Starlink has been selectively throttling access we’re Russia was occupying Ukraine. The Ukrainians have moved so quickly and the Russians pushed back so effectively that the Ukrainians are now where Starlink had cut off access so the Russians couldn’t use starlink against the Ukrainians. As much as I’d like to blame Musk given his stupidity all week, or this week’s stupidity, is a deconfliction problem caused by the speed and effectiveness of the Ukrainian military. The solution is for Starlink to white list the Ukrainian terminals.
Geminid
@Dan B: The latest package of weapons the US promised Ukraine included 20 (I believe) radar systems designed to detect UAVs and other threats. These systems were battle tested in Afghanistan. Once detected, drones can be shot down with Stingers and other anti-aircraft rockets. The Ukrainian Air Force has shot a number of them down also.
Jay
Adam L Silverman
@bbleh:
Lyrebird
@Shalimar: @Gin & Tonic:
Thanks!
Adam L Silverman
@Kyle Rayner: My understanding is the Ukrainians are trying to push the Russians away from the damn, which provides a crossing, and onwards the river and bridge farther to the south. If they can do this, then they’ll preserve the dam and the crossing at the dam, drop the bridge farther south, and trap the Russians.
Also, please give my regards to Apa Ali Apsa. Thanks!
Bill Arnold
@Lyrebird:
Yeah, good OPSEC. The Ukrainians should admired for this, not faulted.
The US does not have a need to know about AFU operations.
Further normalization of international political assassination is arguably in another category. (Israelis are particularly aggressive about assassination – this will end up hurting them.)
Remember the D.J.Trump-ordered assassination of a leader of a branch of the Iranian government, Qasem Soleimani? That started escalating, with an Iranian missile attack that through luck did not kill any Americans (but did cause concussion damage), then US counter-threats, and then the accidental Iranian shootdown of a passenger airliner (Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752) by a twitchy and scared air-defense crew halted the escalation into possible major war. (A bunch of young people were on that flight.)
Adam L Silverman
@BeautifulPlumage: Normally no. But there’s nothing even a good general can do when the strategy set by Putin has an unachievable end, the ways to achieve it are unrealistic, and the means have been stolen and misappropriated.
Lyrebird
Makes sense.
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: The good folks at Langley are zealous, jealous control freaks. They are exceedingly good at a lot of things and we never hear about those successes, but they also don’t like when others they think should share info with them don’t. Even though they don’t like to share info.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’d have done it for a Klondike bar.
Jay
Bill Arnold
@hrprogressive:
The Russians have been threatening or at least talking about using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. Ukrainians should be preparing for such attacks, simply because of the threats. Similar to the air raid disciplines that Ukrainian cities already deal with, though different in details, and scarier.
Russia should be considering this list of countries that border Russia and would be strongly encouraged to quickly acquire nuclear weapons if they don’t already have them (China, North Korea). 14 countries:
Azerbaijan, Belarus, China, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Mongolia, Norway, Poland, and Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_Russia
Some of them, if they had ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, would need a few minutes to deliver a nuclear warhead to Moscow.
Also, even if Russia avoids annihilation in an unpredictable escalation, there would be a near-total blockade of Russia; i could see exceptions for exports of food/fertilizer, and perhaps natural gas with a deadline for shutoff. And the US has a full decision tree worked out, that is and will hopefully remain secret, for various other responses.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
BTW The Kyiv Independent has a new podcast going called Power Lines, which is basically about explaining Ukraine to the world–the identity, history, culture, etc. Only two episodes so far but I have quite appreciated both. If you join their Patreon, you get bonus episodes, too.
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks!
Hope you had an easy fast and that your pups and your people are all still fine after the hurricane.
Sanjeevs
Interesting comment. I don’t remember seeing anything about Ukraine using tanks in the war’s opening phase.
Lt Gen Hertling will be pleased.
Chetan Murthy
Is there nothing our brilliant boy can’t do? No task at which he does not excel? None, I say, none! [the fuckwit]
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/08/elon-musk-taiwan-china-special-administrative-zone-hong-kong
Elon Musk suggests making Taiwan a ‘special administrative zone’ similar to Hong Kong
hrprogressive
@Bill Arnold
I appreciate the reply. I am well aware of the nuke threats out of Russia, but an article quoting Zelensky saying “oh yeah they are going to get their society ready but Putin isn’t ready to hit the button yet”
Is very specific and very…
I mean.
“Prepare their society” sounds really grave tbh.
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: You’re welcome.
We’re all good here.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: Recently US intelligence officials did to the Israelis what they seem to have done just now to the Ukrainians: identified them as carrying out an assasination.
A couple of months ago one of two men on a motorcycle shot and killed a high-ranking Revolutionary Guard Corps officer in his car, right outside his home in an upscale Tehran neighborhood.
The Israelis would not comment beyond letting reporters know that the decedent headed a Guard Corps unit tasked with trying to kill Israelis traveling overseas. It was fairly obvious that they were responsible, but they were still chafed when the New York Times reported that sources in the US intelligence community confirmed that Israel had ordered the hit.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: He’s decompensating.
HumboldtBlue
Martin
Can’t really blame Ukraine for not sharing with the US after Trump.
Jay
Andrya
Adam- thanks so much for doing this.
It was actually Alison Rose who posed the question, but (although I did not post) I had a very similar question: Why, in Heaven’s name, did Ukraine do the Dugina assassination (if they did). And, if they did, why on earth did US intelligence leak it?
Assassinating Alexander Dugin, would, in my (Catholic) opinion, have been morally justified, just as it would have been justified for the allies in WW2 to have assassinated Joseph Goebbels. However, this is covered by the French proverb: “It is worse than a crime, it is a blunder”. Throughout the free world, right wing parties are advocating the russian cause, including the United States (Tucker Carlson, JD Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, Rod Dreher).
The absolute last thing Ukraine should do, is to give russia, or its right wing surrogates, grounds to claim that UK forces are practicing terrorism. Assassinating Dugin plays into their hands, and does not in any way impede the russian military. WTF?????
By the way, I don’t care at all if you if you misspell my nym, but it is “Andrya”- a portmanteau of my actual first name “Anne” and the Greek word for a wood nymph “dryad”- because I love hiking in forest/wooded areas.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
BREAKING: The Kerch Bridge is on fire! I repeat, The Crimean Bridge is on fire 🔥!
Birdie
@Chetan Murthy: maybe even as capable as Jared Kushner.
Chetan Murthy
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: oooooh hadda look: https://twitter.com/search?src=hash&q=%23Kerch
coin operated
@Martin:
This! Thank you! Was wondering if someone would connect the dots on this and you did.
The Dugan hit, if it was Ukraine, is sending a message…either you play ball with Ukrainian Intelligence, or we’ll shove the bat up your ass. I don’t have a problem with this line of thinking.
Jay
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: “It is worse than a crime, it is a blunder” indeed. I read some speculation that it wasn’t UA intelligence that carried out the operation, but rather, Russian partisans allied to Ukraine, hence with some sort of Ukrainian support. And that maybe Ukraine couldn’t control them so well, and maybe they didn’t want to control them so well, b/c deniability.
That would seem to be a plausible explanation for why valuable assets were employed on such a fruitless task: “the people involved wanted to do it, and were not to be dissuaded, so why not let ’em go ahead.”
phdesmond
@Chetan Murthy:
is that the 13 billion dollar bridge putin built between russia and crimea after the 2014 invasion?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
How many times we gotta tell the russians how dangerous smoking is?
He’s also got a video from someone of the fire close-up. Dang.
HumboldtBlue
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
Yes it is
sdhays
@Martin: I know, right?
HumboldtBlue
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Both road spans have been destroyed. A train 🚆 is on fire, & parts of both road ways have collapsed into the water. 😁 Wild!
Chetan Murthy
@HumboldtBlue: be still my beating heart
Dangerman
Fairly sure I’ve never heard a knock knock joke lead to a threesome (or moresome) but live and learn, I guess. With massive apologies to all named Vladimir (well, with some notable exclusions):
Knock, knock.
Who’s there?
Vlad!
Vlad who?
Vlad I’m outta that shithole.
Mallard Filmore
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
That makes sense. Watch any YouTube video on “Jaw Tooth” channel of trains going by. Always there are several cars in the train going womp Womp WOMP Womp womp as it goes by. This is caused by a “flat” spot in a wheel. Really a small defect that grows over the months and years of service life into an open sore (not really flat).
This defect can get so bad as to cause a derailment.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Chetan Murthy: Gorgeous. Burn, baby, burn!
Sister Golden Bear
@Tony G: porn gives young people entirely unrealistic expectations about how quickly a plumber will show up.
BeautifulPlumage
Now that’s a succinct summation! Your posts are very much appreciated, Adam
BeautifulPlumage
@Chetan Murthy:
Happy Birthday Vlad, hope you like it!
Jay
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Russians in Kherson are now beyond screwed. I am gob smacked with joy!
Calouste
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t know if Tesla was selling a lot of cars on Taiwan, but I’m pretty sure they will be selling less in the future.
Chetan Murthy
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: And in Crimea, too! I can only imagine the fear striking he hearts of RU tourists and colonists in Ukrainian Crimea. Fuckers.
phdesmond
the Kerch Bridge cost 227.92 billion rubles[6]
if one trusts wikipedia, what’s that in dollars?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Good close-up shot of the damage.
Chetan Murthy
@phdesmond: Roughly, divide by 60 to get dollars. I took a look at the historical rates, and it looks like that works for 2016, when the bridge was stated. So: let’s say, $4B.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Russian sources say a remote bomb was planted on the train, when it was on the main land & was detonated when it was on the bridge. Long distance video shows enormous clouds of black smoke, which leads me to suspect oil was involved. But that is UNCONFIRMED speculation on my part.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
@Chetan Murthy:
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
@HumboldtBlue:
So, this seems like a big deal. I imagine a lot of cargo is transported across that bridge to Crimea.
While looking up the bridge, I found this factoid about it:
Like the actual bridge now, this state-funded propaganda film utterly failed
YY_Sima Qian
The Intercept article also confirmed that the US pulled out the SpOps/intel assets from Ukraine at the outset of the invasion, expecting the country to fall quickly, & have now put these assets back in & much more. I think this is the 1st MSM confirmation that active duty US military personnel are currently in Ukraine. It is what we all have suspected.
Sebastian
Looks like the bridge is on fire!
I don’t believe it collapsed. The roadside of the bridge has a swoop down in that area. You can clearly see it in some of the videos.
More interesting to me is the fire itself. Someone knew about the train and the cargo. Was it sabotage? Missile? It’s a genius move: the fuel will burn for a while and damage the structural integrity of the railway bridge.
This is exactly what Ukraine wants: disable rail for supply and leave roads open for Russians to escape.
Andrya
@phdesmond: The most important cost is not in money. It’s that it will be very difficult for russia to reinforce/resupply the russian military in Crimea. My interpretation is that this means that Ukraine is “going for broke”- intends to take back Crimea. Adam, Carlo, G&T, anyone, I would really appreciate coments (negative or positive) on this.
Sebastian
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
Sounds like a smart plan.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Sebastian: Look at the clip in my comment at 80 – that’s not a swoop.
Jay
@phdesmond:
$3.4 billion in 2016 roubles to dollar average exchange rate.
trollhattan
Czech birthday wishes for Putin.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1578469202687856641?cxt=HHwWgsDUsY7Y7OcrAAAA
Think they remember Prague, 1968?
HumboldtBlue
@phdesmond:
Via quick search:
way2blue
@Adam L Silverman: Musk just seems so needy to me… But also somehow ‘priding’ himself on his brilliant out-of-the-box solutions to world crises.
James E Powell
@phdesmond:
At today’s exchange rate, ~$3.6B
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Oh yeah, clearly the auto roadway on the left is busted/broken, fell into the sea. Which deepens the mystery: what set fire to the rail cars/railway, and also the far bit of roadway? [And of course, the inevitable question: “can they repeat?” *guffaw*]
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Oh shit, a section of the roadway completely collapsed
Kelly
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: The rail cars appear to be still on the tracks. I’d be surprised if an explosion powerful enough to bust the road spans would leave the rail bridge and cars with so little damage. Also not much debris on the remaining road surface. I’m not a bridge blowing underwater demolition guy just some guy on the internet but maybe blown from below?
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yeppppp. And look at those flames! You fucking love to see it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
If there was an explosion, perhaps it caused the adjacent roadway to collapse?
gwangung
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
@BrynnTannehill
FWIW: Concrete has a melting point of ~1112 degrees F. Gasoline burns at 1500 degrees F. Kerosene closer to 1800. There’s significant likelihood of structural damage to the burning part as well here.
https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1578608371262885888?r
Kelly
I think the roadway was blown and the train got caught in the excess boom.
Sebastian
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Yeah, saw that! Thanks!
Chetan Murthy
kerch straits bridge
trollhattan
A bridge too fire.
phdesmond
not only is the Kerch bridge hella expensive, it’s about as prestigious as the World Trade Center, and particularly symbolic of colonialism.
CaseyL
Blowing up, setting fire to, whatever: Ballsy, dramatic, and a gut punch to Russia. (The Russian citizens in Crimea, if they haven’t all fled already, are thoroughly screwed.)
Ukraine is showing Russia it not only means business, but is not afraid (if Putin didn’t already know that).
dr. luba
@way2blue: Just as brilliant as the Thai cave submarine idea.
trollhattan
@gwangung: Every concrete load delivered to bridge project was QA/QC checked, for sure, and no substandard materials were used on the project whatsoever. Promise. Also, too, see structural steel.
Chetan Murthy
ohhhhhyeah
my reaction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrmwCCo5EBE
CaseyL
One part of the bridge is not only down, it’s underwater: https://twitter.com/anglosaxon1989/status/1578612949458898944/photo/1
Kelly
The road spans that are down appear to be displaced away from the train fire and there spans carrying lanes nearer the burning train that might be intact.
trollhattan
Those are not Welcome Turtles.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1578611146147233792?cxt=HHwWgICgyaeeregrAAAA
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Chetan Murthy: LOLOLOL
divF
@gwangung: We saw that happen here in 2007, when a gasoline tanker truck caught fire in the MacArthur maze and caused a section of a connector ramp to melt and collapse.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Chetan Murthy: I laughed so hard at the photo, I woke up the cat.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
There are reports of 2 explosions. But no one really knows, at this point. But a huge section of the road way bridge is now in the sea. Here’s the thing. Part of the train is still intact & visible. So it wasn’t the train that exploded. There is video of the actual explosion, which doesn’t show any smoke.
HumboldtBlue
Closer look at the collapsed road span of the Crimean bridge
Chetan Murthy
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: What size of explosive does it take to bring down a road span like that? B/c shit, if UA SOF can do that ……
trollhattan
Darth Putin
@DarthPutinKGB
There seems to have been a “smoking accident” on the bridge to Crimea…
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1578596522408968195?cxt=HHwWhoDUnYzLpugrAAAA
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@phdesmond: A plug nickel
Repatriated
Wild usupported speculation about the bridge:
Blast wave from exploding tank car(s) reflected off the water surface and lifted the vehicle spans off theit piers. They then didn’t quite come down in the exact same spot, and kept falling…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
What’s funny about the Kerch/Crimea Bridge being significantly damaged is that not only did it cost Russia $4 billion to build, but that it’s intended to support Russia’s BS claims to Crimea and now it’s on fire, being a perfect symbol for Russia’s war effort in UKR
Jinchi
Like the ancient Pope, eventually Musk will divide the Earth in two. Can’t wait to find out who we all belong to once he sorts it out.
CaseyL
Someone just posted a video of the bridge burning merrily away, and I noticed there doesn’t seem to be any kind of firefighter response. I guess there’s no point – here in Seattle, a few weeks ago a truck carrying cannisters of gas caught fire on the freeway. Our emergency response is excellent, but even here no one went near the truck until it burnt out. And the Kerch Bridge fire is much, much bigger.
Martin
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Yeah, some Ukrainian agent is going to get a very nice medal for that one.
Kelly
@CaseyL: Three road spans down. Only the center busted span shows guardrail damage.
Chetan Murthy
@Kelly: o. i. c. I magnified, and yeah, I see what you mean. Gosh, I’m really looking forward to when detailed pics emerge, and experts look over and it tell us how it was done. B/c boy howdy, this looks like a demolition job, eh?
@Martin: well-earned medal.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
He’s trying to piss everybody off, isn’t he? I wonder what his anti-CCP, pro-ROC fanboys think of this latest brain fart?
dirge
@Kelly: maybe, but if I’m Ukraine, that burning train is just about my best possible outcome. Train and fuel lost, railway trashed, which is much more important than the roadway, and highly visible propaganda while it burns, for quite some time I’d guess. Seems more likely to be the primary objective, than something you’d leave to chance.
Unless they were actually going for a limited demonstration strike to signal without escalating, in which case catching the train is freakishly bad luck. But that sounds like something a NYT columnist would come up with, not a UAF officer.
Seriously doubt blowing up the train would drop the roadway like that, so likely both were targeted. Not at all obvious how, but I lean towards SOF operation since you’d probably need eyes on the train.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
I was reading that the Crimean/Kerch Straight Bridge was target number 1 for the Ukrainians near the start of the invasion
YY_Sima Qian
I don’t see how the Russian war effort recovers from this. All of their forces in occupied Ukraine risk being isolated from logistical support.
trollhattan
@Repatriated: SWAG is Ukrainian intelligence knew a fuel train would cross the bridge and set explosives to detonate while it was crossing.
Fun fact: UP often parks tanker trains at the railyard near my home, and they’re known to haul Bakken crude to Bay Area refineries. This shit is very explosive.
https://www.sightline.org/2014/01/21/why-bakken-oil-explodes/
trollhattan
@YY_Sima Qian: Good Soviet Amphicars! Lots.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amphicar
Kelly
One of the pics shows a single road span down in the other set of lanes. It looks like the back of the burning train in nearest the blown up road bridge spans. As if the train was going by when things went boom because the burning part is a ways from the blown up spans.
Martin
@dirge: Not really enough damage to the bridge though. I’m guessing they can at least get the bridge usable in a few days. We’ll see how the rest of that train pops off, though.
Chetan Murthy
@dirge: experts start to weigh in
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Martin:
I have to imagine the metal rails are going to be pretty screwed up and deformed from the extreme heat, too
Chetan Murthy
@trollhattan: the article references this disaster: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lac-M%C3%A9gantic_rail_disaster
gwangung
Carlo’s pieces on logistics and trains seem very timely……..
Kelly
@dirge: I’m really puzzled by the lack of damage to the rail bridge. The train is on fire but the rail bridge looks relatively intact. The fire is doing a lot of damage.
CaseyL
@Chetan Murthy: Already? They had to have rousted that expert out of bed – it’s only 6:30 AM in England.
Though I imagine a lot of military experts are being rousted out of bed right now. Including in DC.
trollhattan
@Chetan Murthy: Utterly horrid. The poor town had no chance.
Kelly
@Chetan Murthy: Experts!?!
I thought our motto was “ill informed banter”
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
I watched a documentary on that, it was insane what happened
trollhattan
@Kelly: This still frame shows sagging steel. Guessing this is occurring throughout the structure.
Chetan Murthy
@Kelly:
good thread by Mick Ryan (IIRC, ex-AUS military). He mentions that it’d take quite a bit of explosive to bring down these bridge spans. Also that it’s too early to speculate how it was done. But that we’ll surely get a ton of info soon.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: IIRC, the Wikipedia article on the bridge talks about one of the flying sections falling into the sea during contraction, and experts warning that the sea bed is unstable there. It’s not impossible that a little shaking from a small explosion made the roadway collapse.
I wouldn’t want to ride that train until the bridge section was rebuilt, myself…
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
Good news for Russia is Crimea beach season for tourists is over anyway. Is now, ice fishing!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
Hello?
Kelly
It would be irresponsible not to speculate ;-)
Note the center road span that is down is busted in the middle. The downed spans on either side are sort of intact but knocked off their piers.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): yeeeees?
dirge
@Repatriated: lifted the vehicle spans off theit piers
It does actually look an awful lot like the spans were lifted and dropped. The pier I can see looks intact.
But the train is also largely intact. For an explosion coming from the train to do that to the roadway, you’d expect cars to be thrown far off the tracks, if not disintegrated.
I’m wondering what’d happen if you strapped some warheads from captured thermobaric rockets to an submarine drone…. But it’s unclear if that explains what happened to the train.
Chetan Murthy
eeeeeverybody’s a comedian
Chetan Murthy
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
this seems hard to believe. It’d be a suicide mission.
dirge
@Kelly: yeah, it seems what happened to the train wasn’t much more than what was needed to set it alight. A mine, modestly sized demolition charge, switchblade drone…. Or, maybe, just a side effect from a big explosion on the roadway.
Just saying it’s a hell of a coincidence if the train just happened to get caught in an attack on the roadway. And if you went to the trouble of timing this for the train, I think you’d go to the trouble of setting a charge for the train too.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
I can’t believe Musk of all people tried suggesting that Taiwan should become a special administrative region similar to Hong Kong. I bet a lot of his fans are anti-CCP, pro-HK and Taiwan. They must’ve had strokes when they saw that Musk said that
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I read someplace that his Shanghai factory produces half his output of Teslas …. so maybe it simply comes down to his wallet. Either way, it’s morally bankrupt.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Sebastian
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
This is the best week ever.
Chetan Murthy
gotta be a professional job. I mean, look at the cleanness of the break on the roadway. If there’d been a truck-bomb, wouldn’t there be shit all over the place, damage all over? Instead, as Repatriated says, it looks like the roadway was lifted-up and moved over a few feet, then dropped.
Gonna be an interesting next few days ….
kalakal
@YY_Sima Qian: If that’s as bad as it looks everything they’ve occupied along the coast and Crimea itself is out of supply. I don’t see how they come back either
Chetan Murthy
ooooooh looky looky
Shalimar
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Not the first time Russia has used the “our shit is so poorly made it just randomly blows up” explanation.
Chetan Murthy
Chetan Murthy
doesn’t look like a truck bomb
Chetan Murthy
doesn’t look like a truck bomb
dirge
@Martin: Could be they calculated that the visual impact of the burning train is higher value than dropping that span.
Could be that distance from the water’s surface is a significant factor in difficulty, however they did this. so damage from the burning train was judged a good spot on the cost/benefit curve.
Guess it’s not going to get hot enough to melt steel, so I suppose they can just push the train into the water, but I’m imagining more than a couple days to fix. In part just because I’m sure nobody competent prepared for repairs. And getting heavy equipment out there is a challenge.
bjacques
Did someone say “Nailin’ Paylin”?
And that’s when I fell in love with Thandiwe Newton
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DvwNKWiuYEQ
Chetan Murthy
speculation rampant that it was a truck bomb, partially based on CCTV footage. One presumes people are going over it frame-by-frame.
kalakal
That fire already looks to have damaged the steel on the rail bridge, as people have pointed out it seems to be sagging. The good news is there look to be quite a few tanker cars waiting to cook off. If that bridge is unusable the supply routes to all the coastal occupied territory looks to be easily interdicted without the Ukranians having to advance a single foot. If so the Russian army is stuffed
Sebastian
More videos
Sebastian
bjacques
Also this:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jnpE-hGNVj8
Jack Canuck
@Sebastian: Love this bit from that thread:
Russian Senator Alexander Bashkin says Moscow will answer Crimean Bridge attack with a “possibly asymmetric response.” Duma deputy Oleg Morozov says the “terrorist attack” is a declaration of “war without rules.”
Yeah, I’m pretty sure that ship sailed when you invaded a country without provocation, in the process committing multiple war crimes and crimes against humanity.
dirge
@Chetan Murthy: I see the truck in that video, and the timing’s right, but it’s not at all clear whether the explosion comes from the truck, or whether it’s just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Damage really doesn’t seem consistent with a single point source on the roadway surface, but with Russian engineering, who knows.
HumboldtBlue
Chetan Murthy
Damn, the fire’s out, and the other tanker cars didn’t cook off. Ah, well.
dirge
@Chetan Murthy: fire’s out
sigh. Guess we’ll just have to hope the repair crew is well supplied with cigarettes.
Mallard Filmore
@kalakal:
I think the saggy bit is a maintenance walkway, not that the main span is all that trustworthy now.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Their Southern war effort is now essentially unsupported, and unsupportable. The war is over.
Sebastian
@Jack Canuck:
I know, right? What are you going to do? Invade?
Sebastian
This is absolutely humiliating for Putin. I don’t see how he survives this politically.
BeautifulPlumage
@Carlo Graziani: but, but Putin is creating a commission for it : (
Jack Canuck
@Sebastian: I believe that is the traditional Great Power response to something like this, isn’t it? Invade, remove the government of the weak little country that’s dared to stand up for itself, install a friendly regime, etc.
I wonder how that will go for them?
Repatriated
@Jack Canuck:
It’ll be tough, but in the end, I don’t think Moscow will be able to withstand being beseiged.
Carlo Graziani
@Carlo Graziani:
Late to the party today, I’m on Central European Summer Time for a few days.
Holy. Shit.
The best the Russians can do to supply the Southern theatre now is Rostov-Taganrog, then carefully try to thread their way to the south of the Donbas battlefield to the line that runs into southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast (the high resolution railroad map is here). But they’d be screwed anyway, because those trains can be interdicted at multiple places along the line — they run too close to the front lines, including at Fedorivka station, SSE of Zaprizhzhia.
So, not only is the army in the Dnipro Bear Trap lost forever, but the army to the south of the Dnipro now can’t get shells, food, or winter clothing. They probably have no efficient way to withdraw for that matter.
They are so fucked. The war is well and truly over.
Sebastian
@Jack Canuck:
All coming back to Battleship Potemkin, isn’t it?
Russia was a Potemkin Superpower.
Russian Army was a Potemkin Army.
It’s all falling apart.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: They can still be supported from Rostov-on-Don via highways along the coast, or rail line via Melipopol, but that is a much more precarious LOC w/in range of HIMARS on the other side of the Dnipro River. The way the rail network is configured is very awkward fit for the territories that Russia occupies. As you have written in detail, Russian Army logisitics are heavily reliant on rail transport. People are already speculating that the next Ukrainian hammer to fall will be in the direction of Melitopol.
Edit: I see you have already made those very points.
Carlo Graziani
@Andrya: I have no opinion on whether or not Ukraine actually wants Crimea, or regards it as a bargaining chip. What they just did with this move is effectively end the war, which is reason enough to do it.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: #184. Great minds think alike, but ours do too.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: :-D
YY_Sima Qian
I thought from the videos that the the rail bridges were sagging from the fires, but that does not seem to be the case now that the fire is out. Nevertheless, the rail bridge is closed for at least a few days, to clear the wreckage & to inspect the structures for soundness, The partial loss of the road bridge is itself significant, one side is a complete loss & there is a gaping hole covering half of the other side.
Damn! The Russian military has been outclassed by the Ukrainians in evert facet of war so far, except brute application of artillery!
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
Thank you for the map. This was truly a masterstroke, wasn’t it? The army can’t be supplied and winter is coming. The war is lost.
Repatriated
Ok, it’s late night here and I am a little silly, but…
Recent Kos thread update has a tweeted photo with what appears to be a watercraft under the bridge. Drone boat?
This is the silly conjecture:
Rich tech guy just recently got all sorts of publicity for coming out as pro-Russia, including seemingly sabotaging Ukranian satellite data communications.
Got terribly embarrassed once for proposing the use of a submarine his engineers designed.
Right now, who’d suspect him of sneaking in a suicide-drone submarine? Hmmn…
Yeah, no. But I’d watch that movie.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: If it really is the case that a few rail cars full of diesel fuel burned uncontrollably in/from semi-contained but burst metal tanks for hours, the heat was probably enough to melt a lot of the steel in the bridge supports, to say nothing of the track, plus deck warping where it wasn’t destroyed altogether, and now they also have a train wreck fused to the bridge.
At a minimum, that bridge is going to have structural damage that will make carrying train-grade loads a very questionable proposition for a long time, from an engineering point of view.
Sebastian
Well, there goes my sleep.
Looks like it was a boat, not a truck. Video still frames show a bow wave, the spans are cut clean, and no debris on the bridge as expected with truck bombs. FWIW
I think this was a stealth boat carrying a lot of explosives and they blew it up under the bridge when the fuel train was passing for maximum damage. As one would do it when doing it right.
Ruckus
@Kelly:
Visually relatively intact means nothing. A RR bridge carries a hell of a lot of load and has to be dramatically stronger than a car bridge. Each car can normally carry over 100,000 lbs. Then there is the car weight and the engines and in the US a locomotive weighs over 450,000 lbs and normally carries 5500 gal of diesel. And many freight trains will have 2 or 3 engines.
My point is that a fire this big will massively weaken that bridge and it will have to be fixed before it can be used. And I’d bet that Ukraine will be ever vigilant of any attempt by Russia to repair it.
Carlo Graziani
@Sebastian: Link?
Carlo Graziani
One other thing: There is going to be one of the worst traffic jams in history in and around the Rostov-on-Don railyard complex.
ColoradoGuy
Assessing the (remaining) strength of the burned sections of the rail bridge isn’t going to be easy, once the wreckage is cleared away. Putin might be so enraged he would order trains over the damaged section without a thorough engineering assessment, risking a complete bridge collapse combined with a train wreck.
Carlo Graziani
We’re probably at the most dangerous moment of the war now. Here’s where we find out who has been deterring who, and does that deterrence still work.
Putin certainly no longer has unitary personal control of Russian war policy, but whatever Kremlin committee is now in control will certainly have a consensus in favor of lashing out. They are looking at options that include nuclear weapons use. The problem that they have is that all the nuclear options are bad, in that the “what happens next?” question has logical answers that they hate, and can’t do much about.
No use of battlefield nuclear weapons can materially improve the military situation of the Russian army, which is unprepared to fight in a nuclear battlefield. There are probably no tactical targets large enough to be worth expending a nuclear weapon on anyway. Maybe a supply area in Western Ukraine, but do they really want to nuke NATO personnel? That is totally a “Fuck around, find out” scenario.
The US has certainly warned the Russians to expect a violent response to nuclear weapons use, and while people like to talk about “strategic ambiguity”, there’s nothing ambiguous about the threat. I’m willing to bet that NATO air forces have fully combat-loaded missions in the air 24-7 now, and have for weeks, ready to converge on Ukraine from multiple axes at a moment’s notice. Within a couple of hours of a “go”, I doubt very much that the Russian SMO would have any assets at all remaining in Ukraine that weren’t in fragments or melted or on fire, and a lot of their remaining personnel would be wounded or dead. The Russians would probably succeed in shooting down a few aircraft, but they would lose everything, everywhere.
Alexander Vindman pointed out on Lawfare that Russian nuclear-capable cruise missiles are only about 30% reliable, so that you would have to expend three nuclear warheads on average to get the effect of one. And then you might get the effect of two, or three, which would be way more escalation than the Kremlin is bargaining for.
“Lashing out” might not mean reaching for nuclear weapons at all, tempting as that might be in the first blush of rage. Perhaps another city-bombing campaign — like what is currently happening to Kharkiv — would be “punishment” enough to slake the bloodlust. To some extent, the issue is whether these people are “Samson-option crazy” or “Regime-survival oriented”. We don’t really know. In the past, I would always have put Putin in the latter category. But now it’s not only him anymore, and the mobilization shows that the regime is totally capable of carrying out the policy equivalent of self-harm for symbolic gain.
So, insert shrug emoji here. We wait and see.
Geminid
@kalakal: Russia still has two surface supply routes into Crimea: the vulnerable rail line along the coast, and the Port of Sevastopol, which connects to Crimea’s railway grid. Still, loss of say, one third of supply capacity will be a severe strain on Russia’s military effort, and it could be hard to keep the coastal railway in operation. Air transport might pick up some fraction of the shortfall.
It’s possible that Russia has the structural steel bridge members at hand to replace the destroyed bridge spans. That certainly would have been prudent, and it would have been easy to make a few score extra while producing the hundreds required. They may well have neglected this obvious precaution, though.
But even if they do, and have the cranes, etc. handy they might not get that bridge up and running again before December if then.
Carlo Graziani
@Carlo Graziani: One other thing: If I were in the Ukrainians, I’d be taking as many Russian POWs as humanly possible right now, and herding them into POW camps in cities all over Ukraine. Closing out the Kherson battle to grab as many of those Russians as possible, as soon as possible. Then get them on TV, making them seem as numerous as possible in every camp, and have them give interviews, get them on Telegram, call home, etc.
They are there to make the Siloviki think twice about nuking Kyiv, or Odesa, or Lviv…
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: Russian army logisticians have no experience of maritime supply. They don’t control ships, and it’s not even clear that the right type of ships exist in the Black Sea for the transport of, say, tanks. While Sevastopol is a theoretical supply possibility (a real one for their diminished, chastened navy), it would amount to tentative experimentation, and certainly they could not operate a supply pipeline at anywhere close to 1/3 of the capacity of the lost Crimean rail pipeline. My guess is that maritime supply is going to be needed to support civil requirements on Crimea anyway, and it will be qute strained to do just that.
Air transport is even more hopeless. An Antonov is certainly an impressive aircraft, but the throughput is tiny compared to a freight train, and the army needs multiple trains per day. The scales involved are just too mismatched.
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: That’s pretty much what I was saying. Even if Russia has more cargo planes they aren’t already using, air transport could supply only a fraction of the shortfall. Sevastopol’s cargo handling capacity cannot be upgraded quickly, at least not with Russia’s weak engineering resources.
Looking on the bright side, some of the naval units based at Sevastopol no longer need to be supported.
I’ll be interested to see how soon Russia starts evacuating non-essential personnel from Crimea..
Gin & Tonic
Real shame about that bridge.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: I just came here to see what’s what. It came in on my Guardian e-mail just now. I have to go get a flu shot so don’t have time to read yet.
zhena gogolia
Wow, goddamn, I don’t have time to read.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: The question is, how quickly can Russia replace the damaged spans? And can they replace them at all, or in any useful timeframe?
Jack Canuck
Seems like Ukrainian sources are claiming it’s SBU (Ukrainian Security Service) at work: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1578667658513289217
zhena gogolia
@Jack Canuck:
Good tweet there.
Carlo Graziani
The Drive has a good round up here. Includes a pretty clear shot of the 18-wheeler that seems almost certainly the weapon. Also, new footage of the same truck undergoing a very perfunctory security inspection on the Taman side — inspector opens back door, sticks head inside, closes door. This despite propaganda videos showing remote-sensing scans that all bridge-transiting trucks are supposed to go through to pick up signatures of explosives.
I’m guessing that they had been running dry runs to case the security, perhaps for months, and noticed that it had gone Potemkin.
The thing that seems a bit off is that I don’t see the SBU running suicide missions. I could see them hiring a Russian driver using a business cover, having him do several dry runs to check out the security and to get bridge security familiar and comfortable with him, making legitimate deliveries in Crimea, then detonating his final delivery.
LiminalOwl
Since I don’t think anyone has posted this yet: Patron sneezed!
https://twitter.com/patrondsns/status/1578679252463276032?s=61&t=_XGf9PWmM4J6diY3TwoEyA
Many thanks to Adam, and gratitude to all the knowledgeable commenters. I know nothing about military history, tactics, etc. and so appreciate the education I’m getting here.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: Yeah, I am very very skeptical of a suicide op.
Chief Oshkosh
@Carlo Graziani: Not sure about that. We’ll have to see how badly the rail bridge was damaged. Also, supply by sea is ongoing, isn’t it?
Princess
@trollhattan: We do.
Gin & Tonic
SBU with a poetic adaptation from Shevchenko: https://twitter.com/servicessu/status/1578653330762387456?s=46&t=ESxlM0fXPrikmTEvPYBqUg
It dawns
The bridge burns beautifully
A nightingale in Crimea
Greets the SBU
Carlo Graziani
@Chief Oshkosh: As per #202: Russian army logistics has no ability to do maritime supply. They may try, but anything that they accomplish will be on a scale too minuscule to matter.
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: There is a commercial port at Sevastopol with a rail line, in addition to whatever facilities are at the naval base. And Russia still has some landing craft left that they can haul supplies with.
Whether they can get the supplies to the front is another question, especially since the lack of palletizing means a lot of stuff has to be handled by people and not forklifts.
Another Scott
A few quick thoughts:
1) It seems like the fuel train must have been stopped at the time (it takes a long time for a train to stop). Has anyone confirmed that, one way or the other? If so, was it a scheduled stop? If it were a scheduled thing, that information could have been found out and made the timing of the operation easy to fix and planning easier.
2) Lots of screaming on the russian side that trains will be running again today and that they’ll be setting up ferries in the meantime (presumably for the road side).
3) I agree that it could be a dangerous time in the war. But it could also just be more of the same bluster. We’ll have to see.
4) I don’t quickly see any Global Hawks or similar things at flightradar24 at the moment, but they may have their transponders (or whatever) turned off.
Slava Ukraini.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: As far as I know, all passenger train tickets to/from Simferopol have been canceled.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: If it was a truck bomb, the trucker could have stopped the truck and jumped into a following car. They would have detonated the bomb when they were a safe distance down the road.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: russia is saying the trucker and two people in a passing car were killed. Lots of speculation that the truck wasn’t the cause. If you really slo-mo the video, the flash appears to start while the truck is still intact.
Jinchi
@Andrya:
Perfect. That makes it easy for the Russians to leave.
Another Scott
@Jinchi: Haven’t clicked the link, but I assume it’s trivial for them to reverse traffic on the road bridge (moving some adjustable barriers).
Cheers,
Scott.
Miss Bianca
@Sebastian: I hate to even ask this, but can such a boat be operated drone-style? Even for such a good cause, I hate to think of its being a suicide mission for her skipper… :(
Jinchi
Sure, but my bet is more people want to leave than to arrive.
Another Scott
@Jinchi: +1
I was thinking more in terms of supplying VVP’s remaining forces in Ukraine with 1940’s Soviet trucks and sticks and rocks while the train tracks are repaired.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jinchi
@Carlo Graziani @Sebastian:
I agree with Sebastian here. From video now available on CNN and the Guardian, the truck isn’t the source of the explosion. It’s just an unlucky collateral victim. The explosion comes from the right (as seen in the video) with the train bridge on the far left. Smoke and debris come from the right and continue to rain down several seconds after the blast. It is not centered on the truck.
The train was undoubtedly a target, the explosion timed for it’s passing.
Shalimar
@Carlo Graziani: If they have the flexibility, they could repurpose all of those freighters hauling stolen Ukrainian grain into military transports. I don’t expect it, but it sounds like it should be theoretically possible.
zhena gogolia
ARoomWithAMoose
@Gin & Tonic: “If you really slo-mo the video, the flash appears to start while the truck is still intact.”
That’s digital video, from frame to frame you’ll get compression/encoding artifacts (like parts of the previous frame appearing intact) depending on the underlying encoding/compression codec. Most of the encoding codecs do horribly with sudden frame wide changes.
Another Scott
@Jinchi: Dunno.
That video is helpful to me. It seems to show that the train is stopped before the explosion, so that answers one of my earlier questions.
I tried running the video as slowly as I could. The white flash of the explosion seems uniform in the frame. The initial fireball seems uniform too. But things happen very quickly in an explosion. Afterwards, the chaff, etc. certainly blows strongly from right to left (toward the train), but I’m not sure what that means in terms of indicating any momentum from the explosive device itself.
My tentative working hypothesis (I’m not an expert in any of this stuff) is:
One can envision much, much more stringent inspections of trucks and trains, slowing down transfer of people and materiel. Everything is making it more difficult for VVP in Ukraine, just like Brexit has slowed Chunnel crossings.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jinchi
@Another Scott:
It’s interesting that they only note 3 victims of the explosion, the people in the truck and the car beside it. I haven’t heard of any from the train itself, or the other vehicles on the road, which seem to be traveling normally after the blast. That should give some measure of the amount of explosives used.
Bill Arnold
Have not studied the frame-by-frames yet, but the damage is consistent with a drone or semi-autonomous or fully autonomous boat with either 1 or more upwards pointed shaped charges, or 1 very large charge. If so, implies a low radar profile and/or semi-or-fully-submersible.
Ukrainian forces have been seriously thinking about how to drop or damage that bridge(inc railroad) for 7 months now, and really, longer.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: I like how it’s a group effort.
Gin & Tonic
@Bill Arnold: Yeah, Pfarrer shows photos where it looks like the roadbed was lifted *up* off its piers.
Another Scott
@zhena gogolia: A More Tweets there.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: Yeahbut, solid materials have elastic properties. An explosion pushing it down will result in it springing back, to some extent.
Lots of counter-intuitive things can happen when there are large forces.
Someone mentioned a seeing a small boat under the bridge. If you slow it down (in the CCTV video from someone’s computer desk at least), yes, you can see it there, but it’s not where the explosion happens (and I don’t see any sign of something like a shoulder-launched missile being used from it – but we need to remember the admonishment in this thread (I think) that digitial video has lots of compression artifacts).
But we’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
My father crossed the Russian lines in Czechoslovakia to visit Prague (there was a girl involved, somehow. Maybe a pregnancy.) just after the end of WWII (infantry man under Patton), by hiding with a few others under the cover on a coal car in a train. Russian train security sucked, and/or maybe there was a bribe involved. Never heard about the return trip but they managed it somehow.
Another Scott
@Bill Arnold: That would make a great movie. Just keep Spielberg away from it, ‘K??
:-)
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
I did eventually fall asleep, my apologies.
LOTS of speculation everywhere of course. I am sure you have read more about it than I have.
At one point, British Sappers were tweeting that the type of blastwave and damage point to a maritime bomb/vessel. Some video frames implied but it was ruled out later.
Take everything with a grain of salt.
Either way, this is an enormous win for Ukraine.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
You might be onto something, Carlo.
Sebastian
@Miss Bianca:
Yes, it can. The Russians found a drone boat washed ashore close to Sevastopol a week or two ago.
Remote-controlled maritime vessels are the “easiest” of all remote-controlled vessel types.