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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 229: Putin Threw a Temper Tantrum at Ukrainian Civilian & Civilian Infrastructure Targets.

War for Ukraine Day 229: Putin Threw a Temper Tantrum at Ukrainian Civilian & Civilian Infrastructure Targets.

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Quick housekeeping note: Somewhere over the past two weeks or so, I appear to have lost a day in the title. Apparently today is day 229 of Ukraine’s defense against the Russian re-invasion, not day 228. So I’ve jumped a day in the titles.

In response to the Ukrainians successfully targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge, Vladimir Putin and his senior military leadership threw a temper tantrum early this morning Ukraine time. We’ll get to that after President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today, but I want to highlight something important. It got lost in the shuffle when I took Yom Kippur off, so I apologize for not noting and highlighting here that the new Russian theater commander – Sergei Surovikin – is a brutal, cruel, war criminal.  Euronews has the details (emphasis mine):

Sergey Surovikin, a general, previously led Russian forces in Syria. Here he was accused of using brutal and controversial military tactics, such as the indiscriminate bombing of anti-government strongholds.   

Until now Surovikin led the “South” forces in Ukraine, according to the Russian defence ministry. The change follows the reported sacking earlier this week of the two Russian army commanders.

A Ukrainian counter-offensive has routed Russian troops in several places across south and eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, casting a gloomy cloud over Russia’s war.

Surovikin first gained notoriety as a general after ordering his troops to fire on pro-democracy protestors in the 1990s. 

Surovikin has a shady past, serving time in prison twice for allegedly selling weapons and then leading a military column against protesters during the 1991 coup, which resulted in three deaths. 

Charges against Surovikin over the deaths of anti-coup protestors were dropped as then-Russian leader Boris Yeltsin concluded he was only following orders. 

Surovikin led Russian forces in Syria from September 2017. 

Amid his support, the fortunes of the Syrian government changed and it was able to recapture 50% of the country from opposition forces.

According to military experts, Surovikin managed to turn the tide of the war in Syria, particularly through a controversial bombing campaign that inflicted a high toll on civilian populations.

He previously served in Tajikistan, Chechnya and Afghanistan.

Everywhere that Putin needed the most brutal, most criminal of commanders, he sent Surovikin. So it should be no surprise that the response to Ukraine’s taking down parts of the Kerch Strait Bridge was to target as many civilian targets and as much civilian infrastructure as possible.

In response to the overnight and early morning attacks, President Zelenskyy gave a very brief address this morning in Ukraine. Video and a machine translation into English of his remarks below:

“The morning is difficult. We are dealing with terrorists. Dozens of missiles, Iranian “Shahids”. They have two targets. Energy facilities – throughout the country. Kyiv region and Khmelnytskyi region, Lviv and Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Frankiv region, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy region, Kharkiv region, Zhytormyr region, Kirovohrad region, south. They want panic and chaos, they want to destroy our energy system. They are hopeless. The second target is people. Such a time and such targets were specially chosen to cause as much damage as possible. Stay in shelters today. Always follow the safety rules. And always remember: Ukraine was before this enemy appeared, Ukraine will be after him as well.” Address of Volodymyr Zelenskyi.

Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessment of the situations in Kherson and Izium:

And an assessment of video and static imagery of the damage to the rail portion of the Kerch Straits Bridge:

I just want to take a moment and focus on General Zaluzhnyi’s statement here. The Ukrainians actually intercepted over 50% of the inbound threats this morning. This is an amazing success ratio for their air defense. I know that’s cold comfort given how many missiles and rockets and kamikaze drones still made it through, but the Ukrainian air defense personnel did excellent work this morning! The real challenge is not only getting them more air defense equipment, but doing so to create a layered air defense. This is not my area of expertise, but setting up a highly effective air defense network over a city like Kyiv is not easy, nor is it a 100% guarantee that nothing gets through the net. Tyler Rogoway, who writes extensively on this topic, has an excellent, detailed, and very long thread on this. Here’s the first three tweets:

Here’s some videos of the butcher’s bill.

WARNING, WARNING: SOME OF THE IMAGES IN THE VIDEOS IS DISTURBING!!!!!!

Just the damage in Kyiv:

Here’s Marine combat vet and current doctoral student in war studies Rob Lee’s analysis:

The bridge the Russians blew up is a pedestrian bridge linking a public park.

Will you look at that, I have President Biden’s initial reply right here from the White House website.

Statement by President Biden on Russia’s Missile Strikes

The United States strongly condemns Russia’s missile strikes today across Ukraine, including in Kyiv. These attacks killed and injured civilians and destroyed targets with no military purpose. They once again demonstrate the utter brutality of Mr. Putin’s illegal war on the Ukrainian people.

We offer our condolences to the families and loved ones of those who were senselessly killed today, as well as our best wishes for the recovery of those who were wounded.

These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.

We again call on Russia to end this unprovoked aggression immediately and remove its troops from Ukraine.

I bet you can’t guess which of the useless American idiots that Russian state TV worked into their coverage of the Russian strikes against Ukrainian civilian targets?

If you’re so inclined:

Let’s finish the serious stuff with a message from Defense Minister Reznikov:

Your daily Patron!

Also, if you’re so inclined:

There is no new video from Patron’s official TikTok as of right now. Hopefully we’ll get a new video tomorrow night.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

122Comments

  1. 1.

    Jinchi

    The Ukrainians actually intercepted over 50% of the inbound threats this morning.

    That’s great news. A lot of people are alive today who don’t realize how fortunate they are. Let’s hope those percentages get higher. It’d be great if Putin couldn’t even pull off a successful tantrum.

  2. 2.

    dmsilev

    Apparently the Saudis have contracted to buy some additional Patriot missile batteries. Perhaps those could get ….redirected to Ukraine?

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    NB: A lot of Ukrainian voices are upset with the “vengeance for the bridge” framing. This action is of a piece with Izyum, and Bucha, and Mariupol, and on and on. This is what russians have been doing since February. It is genocide.

  5. 5.

    Comrade Misfit

    Aerial strikes against civilian populations has broken a nation’s resolve when, exactly?

    The Russians are terrorists.  The civilized world should treat them as we do the North Koreans.

  9. 9.

    leeleeFL work

    OT- proud to be a Democrat!  That racist witch in LA has resigned. That’s what Democrats demand when one of ours screws their own pooch!

  10. 10.

    oldster

    @Adam L Silverman:

    We know it’s genocide, and we know you know.

    But there is an open question whether this attack was a response to the attack on the Kerch Bridge or not.

    There’s some evidence that it has been in the works for some weeks. Certainly it demonstrates more ability to coordinate air sea and land than russia has shown in some months.

    Describing it as retaliation suggests that it would not have happened if Ukraine had not struck the Kerch Bridge. That may not be true, if it really has been in the works.

    There’s also a concern that describing it as retaliation plays into putin’s abuser-logic of justifying his war-crimes by saying “see what you made me do.”

    Those are the issues. No one is doubting your understanding of the underlying genocide in operation.

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    I am the furthest thing from an expert on these matters, but I don’t really GAF if air defense systems wouldn’t do exactly everything people hope they will–if Ukraine wants them, Ukraine should have them. They aren’t idiots, they know what they need and what they can do with it, and they should be given what they ask for. Otherwise, all the statements of condemnation in the world won’t mean jack shit.

    Zelenskyy’s videos today had me in tears over and over. Here is his usual nightly address, as well as a video surveying the carnage russia unleashed. (Warning that in the second one, there are some graphic images). I’m honestly impressed that even though his voice is very vehement in the address, he somehow manages to restrain himself from just screaming curse words. Perhaps he does that in private.

    Adam and anyone else who knows–this may have been asked and answered before, but if the midterms go south and the GOP takes the House, will Biden be able to continue providing any type of aid and support on his own, without needing Congressional approval? Or would it all be tanked because Republicans are biologically incapable of caring about anyone except themselves?

    Thank you as always, Adam. On days like these, I don’t know how you do it.

  13. 13.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I wonder how many times the “days since the last RU missile strike on a civilian target” count has gone above 1.

    I am not sure even the NAFO artists can lighten this, but when I can I will buy more of their tickets.

  14. 14.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    @Gin & Tonic: I agree.

    I also appreciated this from Kuleba:

    No, Putin was not “provoked” to unleash missile terror by “Crimea Bridge”. Russia had been constantly hitting Ukraine with missiles before the bridge, too. Putin is desperate because of battlefield defeats and uses missile terror to try to change the pace of war in his favor 1/2
    — Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) October 10, 2022

    This nonsense about Putin being “provoked” must stop. He does not need anything to “provoke” him in order to commit heinous crimes. I ask international media to stop shifting the blame on the victim of aggression by suggesting that Putin “responds” or is being “provoked” 2/2
    — Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) October 10, 2022

  18. 18.

    Adam L Silverman

    @oldster: It is likely both. However, unless someone who knows what they’re doing is able to interrogate Putin, we’re all just making best possible assessments based on the available information.

  21. 21.

    Dan B

    The young girl, the toy stuffed Leopard and even the injured Lion are heart wrenching.  I don’t have any other words.

    I read that Kyrgistan pulled out of joint military drills with Russia.  Does anyone have an idea of the reason and / or the meaning and impact of this cancelation?

  22. 22.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Wanted to say thank you Adam for your explanation last night on Crimea and the ethnic makeup of the people that live there. I think it was some Wikipedia article that I saw it claimed that most of the people there were ethnic Russians. The sources you cited show that the reality is much more complicated than that previous statement would imply, and that many of the people there didn’t actually mind being apart of Ukraine

  23. 23.

    oldster

    We can be grateful (?) that russia makes perfectly clear what the cost of surrender would be:

    complete extinction of  Ukraine, as a nation, as a culture, as a language, as a people.

    Every Ukrainian knows, has known for months, that their choice is simply: to fight or to die.

    The russians make it clear every night on TV that they will kill every Ukrainian who falls into their hands. They have made it clear in Bucha, in Izyum, in Lyman.  They don’t simply want to erase the culture; they want to kill every single Ukrainian. For the simple reason of their being Ukrainian.

    It’s quite a relief, in a way, this lack of ambiguity. There can be no illusions about compromise or negotiation. There can be no nagging temptation to relent or ease up. They know that they must kill or be killed, until the invader is driven back past the border of Ukraine, and until the kidnapped children and adults of Ukraine are returned to their homes.

  25. 25.

    oldster

    @leeleeFL work:

    That theory I highly doubt. Highly, highly doubt.

    He’s no longer looking for provocations, that’s the thing. Last winter he massed 200,000 troops on the border. Perhaps then he was looking for provocations, for a casus belli.

    But then, he simply launched the unprovoked invasion of a neighbor. Since then, every new escalation has been unprovoked.

    He needs no Reichstag fires.

  26. 26.

    Ksmiami

    @dmsilev: eff the Saudis esp after their recent snub. They shouldn’t get one more part from us. send everything Ukraine needs to destroy the invaders.

  28. 28.

    oldster

    @Adam L Silverman:

    “It is likely both. ”

    Yeah, I could see this: weeks of prior planning, then waiting for a good occasion. The occasion could have been something else, but this will do.

    And here, if the Kerch strike was an occasion or a trigger, then I think it’s worth considering that putin’s message was not intended solely for the Ukrainians — perhaps not even primarily for the Ukrainians. It was intended to placate the monsters who are even further to his right, the ultra-militarists who have accused him of not doing enough.
    This strike, whatever its trigger may have been, was part of an ongoing dialogue internal to the Kremlin, in which putin tries not to l lose his grip on the situation.

    Ron Howards voice: putin is in fact losing his grip on the situation.

  30. 30.

    leeleeFL work

    @oldster: I still think so, because it gives his ass-kissers fuel for their retaliation BS.  He learned about fellow travelers from the best.

  32. 32.

    cain

    @oldster: and yet – our great GOP has chosen to side with the Russians because of “Christian” solidarity around values. What contemptible lickspittles.

  33. 33.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Biden will have some ability to continue to provide support, but it will be very limited if the GOP retakes the House. And there’ll be no further appropriations for Ukraine. They’re also going to try to defund everything. There would be no regular order appropriations. Just culture war garbage as they create one crisis after another.

  35. 35.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: ​
     

    I am the furthest thing from an expert on these matters, but I don’t really GAF if air defense systems wouldn’t do exactly everything people hope they will–if Ukraine wants them, Ukraine should have them. They aren’t idiots, they know what they need and what they can do with it, and they should be given what they ask for. Otherwise, all the statements of condemnation in the world won’t mean jack shit.

    This. We’ve promised Ukraine an air defense system; where is it? Same with the Germans. The longer it takes to get it over there and operational, the more innocent deaths there will be.

    And Ukraine requested the Iron Dome air defense system from Israel back in the spring of 2021, and Israel basically said no, we don’t want to offend Russia. Well, what’s their excuse now? If they’re still worried about offending Russia after all Russia has done, then WTF is wrong with them??

  37. 37.

    A Ghost to Most

    Scut Farkas can throw all the tantrums he wants. Ralphie keeps giving him bloody noses.

  41. 41.

    lowtechcyclist

    @cain: ​
     

    @oldster: and yet – our great GOP has chosen to side with the Russians because of “Christian” solidarity around values. What contemptible lickspittles.

    Apparently they believe torture and rape and murder of civilians and POWs are trivial offenses against ‘Christian’ values, compared to being gay.

    What worthless excuses for human beings.

  42. 42.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Dan B: The people in charge on the fringes of Putin’s control recognize he can’t protect those places anymore, nor really harm them. So they’re starting to pull away a bit.

  44. 44.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:

    Commenter Jinchi had this to say a few threads ago:

    They’ll try, but it’s harder than you think. Ukraine is a pretty sympathetic partner here: a democracy defending against an invading dictator, who has repeatedly threatened the world with nuclear annihilation.

    Cutting Ukraine off against the wishes of the US president and the national defense community would be a really hard sell at this point. Especially since they’re already fighting suspicions, since Trump, that they’ve been bought and paid for by a foreign power.
    They’ll try to slow walk things without a doubt, but I doubt they can cut off aid entirely unless they defeat Biden in ’24

  45. 45.

    Andrya

    @Adam L Silverman:   YES, exactly.  (Although wouldn’t Biden have authority as commander-in-chief to redirect already bought and paid for US arms to Ukraine?  And then dare the Republicans to refuse to vote for replacement arms????)  But obviously, the volume would be much reduced.

    And, in my opinionated opinion, if TFG gets back in the White House in 2025 (God forbid) he would bail on NATO commitments and green light russian invasion of Poland, the Baltic states, Finland, etc.  He MUST NOT be re-elected in 2024.

  46. 46.

    Adam L Silverman

    @oldster: There’s a reason you put Surovikin in command. And that reason is to do things like this. He’s very good at it.

  47. 47.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    I would add that the heat from burning petrol is hot enough to melt steel as can be seen in the railway tracks. Steel tracks are easily replaced and the second track appears undamaged but the potential damage to the steel bridge holding the railway road bed could be very serious. Would like to see what happens to that section should a loaded freight train be sent across.

  48. 48.

    Cameron

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Russia has let Israel have a pretty free hand in Syria, as long as it doesn’t attack anything too close to Russian positions.  But, yes, it does seem strange that there hasn’t been some sort of response to equating a Jewish head of state with Nazism.

  52. 52.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Andrya: If they retake the House, the majority of the GOP caucus will be of the Greene, Gosar, Gaetz, Boebert model. They will be a majority of the caucus and the House will be a madhouse.

  53. 53.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    Is it really too much to fucking ask for Putin get his head out of his ars and realize he is fighting a war and not shaking down East German shop owners for bribes?

  57. 57.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: Israel’s excuse is that there are 130,000 rockets in southern and central Lebanon, controlled by Hezbollah and the provider, Iran. That may seem like an incedible number, but its the one given by an Al Jazeera reporter and other reports agree with it.

    I know a lot of people believe that the lesson Israelis should draw from the Holocaust is that they should join the powerful coalition that is supporting Ukraine. I don’t think they see it that way. I think the lesson they draw from the Holocaust is that they can’t count on a powerful coaltion of other nations to save them, They have to count on themselves, and that’s why they built the Iron Dome systems.

  59. 59.

    Bill Arnold

    @Adam L Silverman:

    They actually hate America despite the constant, loud statements that they’re the most patriotic Americans.

    Need to get people into the habit of calling such falsely-self-identified “patriots” Enemies of America/the USA, or similar, any time they call themselves a “patriot”.

  62. 62.

    Gin & Tonic

    FYI, the red building behind the girl with the headphones is Taras Shevchenko National University, pretty much in the heart of Kyiv.

  64. 64.

    patrick II

    @Cameron:

    That seems to be a difficult balancing act for Putin —  letting Israel bomb Iranian positions in Syria while buying needed arms from Iran.

  65. 65.

    patrick II

    @Grumpy Old Railroader:

    I would add that the heat from burning petrol is hot enough to melt steel as can be seen in the railway tracks.

    There are many 9/11 truthers that would disagree with you about petrol being able to melt steel.

  68. 68.

    Anyway

    @cain:

     and yet – our great GOP has chosen to side with the Russians because of “Christian” solidarity around values. What contemptible lickspittles.

    It’s also a deep hatred of liberals and cultural liberalism.

  69. 69.

    Anyway

    @lowtechcyclist:

    And Ukraine requested the Iron Dome air defense system from Israel back in the spring of 2021, and Israel basically said no, we don’t want to offend Russia. Well, what’s their excuse now? If they’re still worried about offending Russia after all Russia has done, then WTF is wrong with them??

    Russian mafia and moneybag oligarchs are big in Israeli right-wing politics and given the many, many right-wing parties in the country, Israel for all intents and purposes is on the Russian side of this war.

  70. 70.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Grumpy Old Railroader: 

    damage to the steel bridge holding the railway road bed could be very serious

    Are you sure that is a steel bridge, and not some type of concrete material? I have loved railroads (but never worked for one) for the last 65 years, and have never seen that design in railfan magazine pictures. Google “types of steel bridges” and go to images, I do not see a design that fits the Kerch style. My idea of a steel railroad bridge is the Illinois Central crossing the Mississippi River at Cairo.

    Can you point to a clear picture that says Definitely Steel? To my eyes, the spans look too husky to be steel, but I don’t design rail stuff, so maybe it would be honking stupid to make a railroad structure this size from concrete.

  71. 71.

    Geminid

    @patrick II: It does not seem like the Iranians made Israeli attacks on its Syrian assets an issue when they sold their drones to Russia. But it’s possible they did and we just haven’t seen the resulting change in Russia’s posture yet.

    Israel doesn’t seem to actually fly planes over Syria to strike Iranian assets, but rather fires missiles from warplanes flying in Israeli or Lebanese airspace. It’s a major effort, with a military unit coordinating what they call the “war between wars.” Israel’s government generally does not acknowledge the strikes, but they’ve carried out hundreds over the past few years.

  73. 73.

    Leto

    @lowtechcyclist: Ukraine Situation Report: German IRIS-T SLM Air Defense System Arriving In Days

    Reacting to the massive barrage of missiles and drones on Ukrainian cities, Germany’s defense minister said the first of four promised IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile systems will arrive in Ukraine over “the next few days.”

    After this morning’s events, it couldn’t come soon enough.

    “The renewed rocket fire on Kyiv and the many other cities makes it clear how important it is to deliver air defense systems to Ukraine quickly,” German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said in a statement. “Russia’s missile and drone attacks primarily terrorize the civilian population. That is why we are now supporting them with anti-aircraft weapons in particular. In the next few days, the first of four state-of-the-art ones will be up to effectively protect the people of Ukraine.”

    Good bit of technical information in the article.

  75. 75.

    Bill Arnold

    @Anyway:
    Also, a significant percentage of the Israeli voting-age population is from the FSU, and culturally and they are (mostly) politically right-wing. (And some of them maintain covert or overt ties with the Russian government.)

  76. 76.

    Geminid

    @Mallard Filmore: I read a twitter thread by a structural engineer who described the rairoad bridge members as steel box beams. That’s  what they look like: long, dark boxes.

  77. 77.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Geminid: 

    I read a twitter thread by a structural engineer who described the rairoad bridge members as steel box beams. That’s what they look like: long, dark boxes.

    Ah, OK. That’s why they don’t look like anything from my youth.

  78. 78.

    Geminid

    @Bill Arnold: A portion of those immigrants from the former Soviet Union are Ukrainian, and a number of Ukrainians have emigrated to Israel since 1992. Some have returned to Ukraine to join the fight.

    I think polling shows that a majority of Israelis favor Ukraine in this war, and an even larger majority backs their government’s neutral policy. Turkey has pursued a similar policy, as have Egypt and the Arab nations in CENTCOM. Generally, the US government expresses its disapproval of their wayward allies to them privately.

  79. 79.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Leto: One of the buildings hit in Kyiv this morning housed a German firm’s offices if I read the article correctly. Imagine how the need to protect one’s own can sharpen the mind to focus on doing necessary things quickly.

  80. 80.

    Jay

    The Russians have been planning missile strikes on Kyiv and the infrastructure of Ukrainian cities since the beginning of October.

    That’s according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, Ukrinform reports.

    According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, the Russian troops received instructions from the Kremlin to prepare for massive missile strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure on October 2 and 3.

    Military units of strategic and long-range aviation received orders to prepare for the task of launching massive missile attacks. The objects of critical infrastructure and the central areas of densely populated Ukrainian cities were chosen as targets.

    On October 8, seven Tu-160 strategic bombers were transferred from the Engels air base to the Olenya air base and armed with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/russias-been-planning-strikes-on-ukrainian-infrastructure-since-early-october-intelligence.html

  82. 82.

    Immanentize

    @raven: Did someone say, Little Egypt?

    She did a triple somersault and when she hit the ground
    She winked at the audience and then she turned around
    She had a picture of a cowboy tattooed on her spine
    Saying, “Phoenix, Arizona, 1949

  84. 84.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Dan B: 

    Even if the RR bridge structure is concrete the hours of intense oil fires is likely enough to degrade the rebar or post-tensioning cables.

    Right. I was thinking of damage to the other track that is returning to operation. There was a lot of burning fuel getting blown onto that side by the wind.

    Oh well. The bridge is slow ordered and single tracked now.

  86. 86.

    Steeplejack

    According to Forbes the russian terror attack was quite costly for the aggressor. Between 400 and 700 million USD have been spent today. Reflecting the results this was probably the most wasteful attack in this war with virtually zero serious military value.
    pic.twitter.com/f9aa0aFvQJ

    — Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) October 10, 2022

  87. 87.

    Rocks

    @Andrya: It’s not just Trump.  Any Republican president in 2024 would be an unmitigated disaster.  We have to keep the presidency, expand our majorities in the House and Senate, and expand the Supreme Court.  No president who loses the popular vote should be allowed to nominate any Supreme Court justice.

  88. 88.

    Raoul Paste

    Mike Pompeo used to be director of the CIA.  You would think that he’d be privy to the most closely guarded information in the iUSA.  His soft stance toward Russia really sounds like a problem.   And somehow I don’t think it’s an 11 dimensional chess thing

    I would be happy to be reassured otherwise

  89. 89.

    Anonymous At Work

    What’s the threat of Belarus opening a new front?  Or is that premature since Belarus attacking might create a cascade, like World War 1?

  90. 90.

    Andrya

    @Rocks:  I agree with everything you said, though some of it would be a heavy lift.  I simply assumed that TFG would be the 2024 Republican nominee, which is likely but not certain.

  91. 91.

    Jay

    @Anonymous At Work:

    Belarus has “offered” more logistical support to Russia, allowed Russia to create a drone base and launch drone and missile attacks from Belarus, and is “threatening” to send 100,000 troops to invade Ukraine.

    Belarus has 29,600 “Regular Army” (conscripts, NCO’s and Officers) and a “Territorial Defence Force” of 150,000 weekend conscripts

    The Ukraine TDF, a professional full time branch of the Ukraine Army, has been fortifying the Belorussian Border for years now, their Scouts and the Us SOF have been scouting and raiding into Belarus since the start of the current Russian Invasion.

  92. 92.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    @Mallard Filmore: Are you sure that is a steel bridge, and not some type of concrete material?

    Pretty sure it is a steel span with concrete form railroad bed. Doubt that any span that length would be concrete without steel support. Even if it was just concrete,  it would have steel reinforcement bars and the heat may have weakened the tensile strength

  93. 93.

    Redshift

    @oldster:

    Yeah, I could see this: weeks of prior planning, then waiting for a good occasion. The occasion could have been something else, but this will do.

    Also remember that there was lots of talk from Russian propagandists, as captured by Julia Davis’ Russian Media Monitor, that Ukraine was certain to do something terrible on Putin’s birthday. That should probably be taken as confirmation that this response was in the works, whatever the “something” turned out to be.

  94. 94.

    Redshift

    @Anonymous At Work:

    What’s the threat of Belarus opening a new front? Or is that premature since Belarus attacking might create a cascade, like World War 1?

    I would say it’s less now than earlier, now that Ukraine has proven their effectiveness against the Russian forces. Lukashenko has a long history of doing just enough to stay in Putin’s good graces, but balking or coming up with excuses to avoid taking unpopular actions that could threaten his hold on power. (I doubt it would create a cascade; everyone knows Lukashenko is little more than a puppet of Putin.)

  96. 96.

    Anoniminous

    @Dan B: ​
     
    They don’t like Russians very much. Before the fall of the Soviet Union Khzakistan was the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic and (from Wikipedia because it’s convenient):

    After Joseph Stalin ordered the forced collectivization of agriculture throughout the Soviet Union, Goloshchyokin (First Secretary of the SSR’s Communist Party) ordered that Kazakhstan’s largely nomadic population was to be forced to settle in collective farms. This caused the deadly Kazakh famine of 1930–1933 in Kazakhstan which killed between 1 and 2 million people.

    In 1937 the first major deportation of an ethnic group in the Soviet Union began, the removal of the Korean population from the Russian Far East to Kazakhstan. Over 170,000 people were forcibly relocated.

    Over one million political prisoners from various parts of the Soviet Union passed through the Karaganda Corrective Labor Camp (KarLag) between 1931 and 1959, with an unknown number of deaths.

    The most significant factors that shaped the ethnic composition of the population of Kazakhstan were the 1920s and 1930s famines. According to different estimates of the effects of the Kazakh famine of 1930–1933, up to 40% of Kazakhs (indigenous ethnic group) either died of starvation or fled the territor

    Now that China is moving into the ‘Stans they see an avenue to slip out of Russian domination.

  97. 97.

    sab

    @Anoniminous: The Chinese government is becoming increasingly Han centric (although China is ethnically diverse) and their treatment of Uighurs is appalling. Will Kazahks want to come under Chinese influence?

  103. 103.

    sab

    @Jay: Thanks. I think I knew that and had forgotten. But Kazahks are somewhat Muslim and not Han. Doesn’t the Uighur situation concern them? Are they that different in Han Chinese eyes?

  104. 104.

    Chetan Murthy

    @sab: Perhaps the Kazakh point of view is “Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof” ?  I mean, sure China might not be so great, but compared to *Russia* …..

  106. 106.

    Chetan Murthy

    @sab: I sure don’t know, and am just speculating.  But …. the neighborhood isn’t exactly a friendly one.  Look at Armenia and Azerbaijan, and imagine you’re Armenia.  You literally rush into the arms of Russia, b/c Azerbaijan is *worse*.  Imagine it.

    I have a Hong Kong-American friend who explained to me that in HK, a lot of people really love TFG (and his minion named Pottinger) b/c they were belligerent against China at a time when HKers felt like nobody would stick up for them.  This earned TFG a lotta love in HK.  I’m not saying that TFG did this for good reasons, or even that he’d have stuck by HKers.  But quite simply, they felt like they had no good options.

  107. 107.

    sab

    @Chetan Murthy: My sister has a Chinese husband, and her children from the first (Chinese) marriage are posting really provocative  comments in defense of Uighurs. So provocative that their mom and stepfather who go to China every year could be in danger. And the kids don’t care. They are that angry.

    ETA They are Shanghai based, not Hong Kong

    ETA: OT but sister’s husband is upset that when he goes home to Shanghai everyone speaks Mandarin, not Wu/ Shanghai dialect. He doesn’t even feel like it is his city anymore.

  108. 108.

    bjacques

    Is it also possible Vlad and/or his army was planning the terror bombings for his 70th birthday and was just a few days late?

    EDIT: Anyway, thanks to folks here, now I know they were planned well in advance of the Kerch bridge bombing and were just a spike in the ongoing terror campaign.

  109. 109.

    Anoniminous

    @sab: ​
     

    I think their first priority is to use China to get out from under Russia’s thumb and then worry about China.

  111. 111.

    Sebastian

    @oldster:

    Yes, he is. Put yourself in his shoes:

    This was supposed to be a 3-day roll-up-the-joint op and he first, had to withdraw from Kyiv, then take massive losses. Barely eke out Sieverodonetsk, tons of losses, dead generals left and right, get stuck in Kherson, then lose catastrophically in the East. Mobilization disaster, then starts losing in Kherson oblast and finally gets hit square in the face in the only thing he ever achieved in his 20 years, the Kerch bridge, on his birthday no less.

    lolz

    He is one battlefield defeat away from getting socked.

  112. 112.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Grumpy Old Railroader:

    Pretty sure it is a steel span with concrete form railroad bed. Doubt that any span that length would be concrete without steel support. Even if it was just concrete,  it would have steel reinforcement bars and the heat may have weakened the tensile strength.

    I think that the issue with rebar would be expansion, especially differential expansion of nearby elements, causing cracks in the concrete that weaken the structure irreparably.

  113. 113.

    Carlo Graziani

    @oldster: It is certainly both, and Jay, at #79, brought in Ukrainian intelligence on existing preparations.

    And it is certainly terrorism, and of a piece with the attitudes that Russian nationalists express about Ukrainian ethnicity, which coupled with their actions in the war definitely also qualifies it as a genocidal act as well.

    But it is useful to consider what it is in the minds of the perpetrators. We should take them at their word that this is revenge for the Kerch strike.

    And that tells us something useful:Russia is still deterred from nuclear weapons use. In their own minds, the Kerch strike is like 9/11 was for Americans — a maximal provocation. They are not staying away from maximal retaliation out of restraint. They are doing so because the US threats of response to nuclear weapons use still have them boxed in.

    It’s hard to look at these despicable attacks and call something out as a silver lining, but perhaps we can say that worst fears are still unrealized, and may remain so.

  114. 114.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab: I don’t think the Kazakhs care much about Uyghurs. There is no such thing as pan-Turkic/Central Asia solidarity.  They do care about mistreatment of ethnic Kazakhs in China, but at the end of the day what happens in China matters a lot less than what happens in Kazakhstan, especially to the authoritarian Kazakh government. Unlike Russia, or the US for that matter, China has not had recent history of venturing outside of its borders to physically abuse or dominate other peoples. China does not care how the Central Asian peoples manage their own affairs, as long as they do not provide support to separatists, terrorists & religious extremists w/in China, or cozy up too closely to the US.

    The UN Human Rights Council just took a vote to attempt to discuss the Human Rights Commissioner’s report on Xinjiang, which expresses concern that crimes against humanity has been committed by the CCP regime (it is not in a position to render legal judgment). China managed to defeat the vote, w/ every Muslim majority & Global South country either voting w/ China or abstaining. The single exception was Somalia, which has a US national assigned as the UN’s special representative for the country. BTW Ukraine initially abstained, then requested to change its vote to yes, though it would not change the voting tally.

    National governments are not viable vessels to place one’s hope for advancement of justice, not w/ any kind of consistency.

  115. 115.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I have a Hong Kong-American friend who explained to me that in HK, a lot of people really love TFG (and his minion named Pottinger) b/c they were belligerent against China at a time when HKers felt like nobody would stick up for them.  This earned TFG a lotta love in HK.  I’m not saying that TFG did this for good reasons, or even that he’d have stuck by HKers.  But quite simply, they felt like they had no good options.

    The voices in the West were overwhelmingly supportive of the Hong Kong protests, they did not have to turn to Trump & Co., but they did because they though Trump & Co. were the hardiest line anti-CCP. Frankly, a lot of people waving the flags of democracy/freedom/liberalism in Hong Kong, Taiwan or Mainland China (or among the Chinese diaspora around the world) are not liberal democrats & actually have no respect for liberalism. They are anti-CCP 1st & foremost. They are also easily enthralled by the anti-CCP messaging of the Falun Gong media. After the 2020 election, plenty of them thought Trump was robbed.

  116. 116.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab:

    ETA: OT but sister’s husband is upset that when he goes home to Shanghai everyone speaks Mandarin, not Wu/ Shanghai dialect. He doesn’t even feel like it is his city anymore.

    Depends on the part of the city. In the older parts of the town the Wu language is still often heard. If two people both speak, they will converse in Wu. However, if you go to Pudong, which is an urban area constructed from green fields in the last 2 decades, Mandarin is dominant, because people living & working there invariably came from other parts of China, & not Wu speaking parts. Then again, no self-respecting Shanghaiese local would every consider Pudong to be part of Shanghai.

    Shanghai’s population grow by leaps & bounds in the past several decades, most of that has not been organic growth of the local population, but migration from the rest of the country. It should not be a surprise that a language everyone can speak will grow evermore prominent. People working service industries are also mostly newcomers from elsewhere, because locals typically thumb their noses at such jobs, so Mandarin is spoken at such establishments. The same dynamic is at play at Beijing & Guangzhou, attracting people from across the country, & any of the 2nd Tier provincial capitals that have been attracting people from surrounding regions. & you hear the same nativist-tinged nostalgia from the locals. The single exception is Shenzhen, because everyone there is from somewhere else. There is no nativism. Its motto is “If you come, then you are a Shenzhener!”

    In my 13 years in China before emigrating to the US, I had lived in Jilin Province in northeastern China, Tai’an in Shandong Province in eastern China, Beijing in northern China, & Nanjing in Jiangsu Province (an island of non-Wu speaking area in the region) in easter China. In my 15 years since returning to China for work (& then marriage), I have lived in Guangdong Province in southern China, Fujian Province in southeastern China, & now Wuhan in Hubei Province in central China. I have never developed any sentimental attachment to any of China’s regional languages & dialects.

  119. 119.

    charon

    @charon:

    https://twitter.com/Black_Smear/status/1579829207320137728

    This is the guy that proclaimed himself the Governor of the Donetsk Region in 2014 when this war started. When tankies tell you that there was a “legitimate separatist movement” in Donbass in 2014, Gubarev is one of the people with who it started with – a genocidal maniac.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579578461869731840

    Konstantin Dolgov, former Russian commissioner for human rights, claims that Ukraine’s plumbing and sewer systems are “working to support the war” and therefore are legitimate military targets. He hopes for more strikes and asks: “Are they whining yet? Are they howling yet?”

  120. 120.

    Andrya

    @YY_Sima Qian:  Principled opposition to russian genocide/human rights violations in Ukraine means opposing genocide and human rights violations everywhere- including by China, including the treatment of the Uighurs and and the sinking of Vietnamese and Philippine fishing boats in waters where they have every right to be (in at least one case, without picking up survivors).

    Of course, it also requires opposing human rights violations by the United States (including GITMO and the treatment of undocumented immigrant children).

  122. 122.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Andrya: Quite right. However, my point is one really should not expect national governments to act on principle. We can only strive to do so as individuals.

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