Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Republicans don’t trust women.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

I did not have this on my fuck 2024 bingo card.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 230: The Aerial Bombardment Continues

War for Ukraine Day 230: The Aerial Bombardment Continues

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Russia’s aerial bombardment of Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure is now in its second day. It is, as we discussed last night, the specialty of Putin’s new theater commander General Surovikin. The emerging consensus, which I think is the correct assessment, is that the new Russian theater strategy is to destroy as much of Ukraine’s infrastructure, especially power generation and transmission and the water system, but also residences or any place Ukrainians could shelter, before winter. By doing so Putin and Surovikin are trying to set the conditions to freeze out the Ukrainians over the next several months. I don’t think that’s going to work, but it appears the Russians are going to try.

My understanding is that once again the Ukrainian air defense intercepted the majority of incoming Russian attacks.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Ukrainians!

The enemy launched a second wave of terrorist attacks against our country.

As of this morning, there were 28 missiles, of which 20 were shot down. More than 15 drones, almost all of them are Iranian combat drones. Most were shot down.

I am thankful to all our warriors of the Air Forces, Ground Forces and Intelligence involved in defense against these Russian strikes!

And, by the way, at the request of the military command, I want to celebrate soldier Dmytro Shumskyi (anti-aircraft missile platoon of the 57th separate radio engineering battalion, Chernihiv direction) for yesterday.

On October 10, Dmytro Shumskyi showed excellent skills and reaction and shot down two terrorists’ cruise missiles with the help of Stinger MANPADS.

One person saved dozens of lives. Thank you for that!

Restoration works are taking place quite quickly and efficiently throughout the country.

If it wasn’t for today’s strikes, we would have already restored the energy supply, water supply and communications that the terrorists damaged yesterday. And today, Russia will achieve only one additional thing: it will delay our recovery a little.

Where there was destruction, the infrastructure will be renewed everywhere. Where there were losses, there is already or will be construction. Where there were any hopes of the enemy, there will be ruins of Russian statehood.

And I thank everyone who, at their level, provides recovery after terrorist attacks.

I am grateful to the rescuers – more than a thousand employees of the State Emergency Service, who immediately arrived on calls and began neutralizing the consequences of terrorist attacks.

At the suggestion of the Minister of Internal Affairs, I would like to especially note the selfless and determined actions of senior ensign Borys Shapovalov, commander of the department in the Zaporizhzhia region; sergeant Oleksandr Smiyan, firefighter-rescuer, Zaporizhzhia region; ensign Yuriy Lozynskyi and junior sergeant Oleksiy Biletskyi, respirator workers of the mining and rescue department, Kyiv city.

I am grateful to all the doctors who helped the wounded and injured!

I am grateful to all energy workers and utility workers for their high-quality response and quick work.

I am grateful to the local government workers, heads of local government and government officials who worked together, truly in unity and excellently.

Now most of the cities and villages that the terrorists wanted to leave without electricity and communication are already with electricity and communication.

In some cities and districts, work is still ongoing. In some cities and districts, energy workers apply temporary restrictions on energy supply according to the schedule – this is necessary solely in order to maintain the stability of the energy system.

The government controls all this – we are trying to restore normal conditions as quickly as possible.

I would also like to thank all Ukrainians who listened yesterday and limited their own electricity consumption during peak hours – from 17:00 to 22:00.

Thanks to our conscientiousness, we managed to save a tenth of the energy on average in the country, which allowed the system to work more stably. And our goal should be to save a quarter of electricity precisely during these peak hours.

It should be done today and in the near future.

Please postpone the energy consumption of appliances that require a lot of electricity to other hours of the day. It is not difficult for an individual, and it gives a great result within the scale of our entire country.

I took part today in the extraordinary summit of the Group of Seven, which was convened by the German presidency on our initiative.

We discussed the response of the most powerful democracies to this new Russian escalation.

For such a new wave of terror there must be a new wave of responsibility for Russia. New sanctions, new forms of political pressure and new forms of support for Ukraine.

Tomorrow, the defense support for Ukraine will be discussed in the “Ramstein” format. I expect progress from our partners on the issue of air and anti-missile defense, agreements on new supplies of other weapons and ammunition we need.

The terrorist state must be deprived of even the thought that any wave of terror can bring it anything.

A separate task for intelligence is to establish all those involved in these missile attacks against Ukraine, in schemes with Iranian drones.

The individual responsibility of terrorists should be the same as the responsibility of the terrorist state. We work for this.

Today I had separate conversations with the Prime Minister of Italy and the Prime Minister of Australia. I heard absolutely clear support, absolutely clear condemnation of all manifestations of Russian aggression against Ukraine and international law.

We also have a detailed statement from the Group of Seven, in particular, that all those responsible for terror against Ukraine will be brought to justice. Starting with the current political leadership of Russia and ending with everyone who serves these terrorist interests.

Mankind and humanity are stronger than any terrorists. I am thankful to everyone who fights and works for our victory!

And one more thing. Today, 32 of our warriors were freed from Russian captivity. We do everything for Ukraine – possible and impossible. Gratitude to everyone who worked for this result!

Glory to our beautiful people! We will restore everything that was destroyed!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

They have posted an updated map, but nothing has really changed on it so I’m not posting it.

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kherson and Izium:

It’s HIMARS O’Clock!

Obligatory:

Also, IRIS-T O’Clock!

The NATO and non-NATO allies supporting Ukraine need to really step up the transfer of air defense systems so that the Ukrainians can established a proper, layered air defense network. I honestly do not understand the calculus in DC, London, Paris, Berlin, and other allied capitols that delayed this being done until now. Despite Ukraine’s successes in the defense of Kyiv, in pushing the Russians back in Kharkiv, and in chewing away at them in Kherson; that these more advanced air defense systems are just now getting to Ukraine 9 months into the war just mystifies me. I just do not understand the strategic thinking here.

He seems nice…

I’m sure everyone is waiting for me to get to the big news of the day. Vice has reported that, according to Ian Bremmer, Elon Musk told Bremmer that Musk had a conversation with Putin prior to beginning his pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian tweet storm.

Elon Musk spoke directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin before tweeting a proposal to end the war in Ukraine that would have seen territory permanently ceded to Russia, it has been claimed.

In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be accomplished “no matter what,” including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome.”

Bremmer wrote that Musk said he had refused a Ukrainian request to activate Starlink in Crimea. According to UK newspaper the Financial Times, Ukrainian forces have reported connectivity issues as they continue their counteroffensive into areas previously held by Russian forces in the east and north-east of the country. Musk responded by criticising the FT’s reporting, saying that what happens on the battlefield is “classified.”

The Ukrainian response to Musk’s Twitter peace proposal was succinct – one diplomat told him to “fuck off,” while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted his own Twitter poll.

Since Vice published their reporting, Musk has denied it by tweet – of course – and Bremmer tweeted out that he stands by his remarks:

This is not exactly news. The Economist‘s Oliver Carroll broke this story last week:

The Financial Times‘ Max Seddon has further details:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

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Бережіть себе та своїх близьких! Не нехтуйте сигналами повітряної тривоги. Усім безпечний теплий лизь❤️ #славаукраїні #песпатрон

♬ Bundle of Joy (From “Inside Out”) – Benny Martin

The caption (machine) translates as:

Take care of yourself and your loved ones! Do not ignore the air warning signals. Safe warm skiing for everyone ❤️ #SlavaUkraini #PatrontheDog

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

71Comments

  1. 1.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Bad news for Russians: urban bombardment doesn’t break civilian morale.  This has been known since WWII.  You may have heard of it?  “Great Patriotic War”?

  2. 2.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Thank you Adam for persevering for so long in giving us the daily updates, & providing a forum for wonderfully informed discussion!

    I can see Russians seeking to destroy power generation & transmission infrastructure ahead of winter. Such tactics have in fact has been common practice in warfare, though in this instance the Russia objective is clearly to victimize the civilian population, & thus constitute war crimes. Damaging the shelters? The Russians do not have enough munitions for that, not even dumb ones. I doubt any country have the requisite munitions stock to achieve such aims. Perhaps the Russian objective is to damage enough shelters so that the rest are overcrowded & miserable this winter? I am not sure it has enough munitions to truly make an impact here

    The Russians are just engaged in terror bombing.

  3. 3.

    Leslie

    Effing war criminal terrorist state. I wonder if this Surovikin waste of DNA is giving his commands from a safe distance, or if he’s close enough for a special ops team to get at him.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    Waiting for people to tell us about all the good russians out there. Ahem.

    I just do not understand the strategic thinking here.

    Kinda seemed like “Oh noes, we don’t wanna make putin maaaaaaad though” or some shit. All we kept hearing was “he’ll escalate, he’ll escalate” – well, he’s fucking escalated without them sending what was begged for, so maybe some of them are finally waking up and doing what they should’ve done months ago. Every world leader who said no to anything Zelenskyy has asked for since February ought to have it on their conscience when they look at the news.

    Maybe each one of them ought to spend a few days in Kyiv, or Kherson, or Zaporizhzhia, so they can understand a tiny bit what it feels like for the Ukrainians.

    Anyway. Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    SpaceUnit

    Fuck Putin.  I’ll bet a shiny nickel that most of the crazy right-wing nazi MAGA off-the-rails Republican bullshit we’re dealing with now in the US is Kremlin funded psy-ops.  There needs to be a reckoning.

    ETA:  And the reckoning needs to come for his American collaborators as well.

  6. 6.

    oldster

    Surovikin’s main qualification, it seems, is a lack of conscience.

    That does not make him a military genius, just a thug.

    He will wallow and flounder as his predecessors have, while Zaluzhnyi runs rings around him.

    In his floundering, he may kill a few more civilians. But he will lose his army, and eventually he will lose his life.

    I’m more afraid — considerably more afraid — of a Republican majority in Congress, than of putin’s new enforcer.

  10. 10.

    SpaceUnit

    Also, fuck Elon Musk.  If he hadn’t inherited a South African emerald mine his daily work attire would include a paper hat.

  11. 11.

    Bill Arnold

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Bad news for Russians: urban bombardment doesn’t break civilian morale.

    Yup. Bombarding enemy cities with rockets was an Adolf Hitler move, a Nazi move. Now, standard Zazi war crimes.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: What I am saying is that the Russians do not have enough munitions to destroy enough apartment blocks & residential buildings to actually make a different at the macro scale. There are far too many such buildings even in a medium sized city. That requires a bombing campaign harkening back to WW II.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    A couple of things I’ve found on the air defense equipment timing:

    AirAndSpaceForces.com (from June 24):

    “Air defense is a key area that we’re very much focused on,” a senior defense official said at a June 24 Pentagon press briefing meant to highlight new security assistance authorized by President Joe Biden.

    “Initially, it was that short-range air defense that we were providing in in massive quantities. But we quickly shifted our focus to seeing how we could bolster and enhance Ukraine’s existing air defense capabilities,” the official said. “We are still looking at how we can continue to help the Ukrainians build out those systems. And it is it is a priority area.”

    Early in the Russia-Ukraine war, United States and allies flooded the country with Stinger short-range air defense systems most effective against slow-moving targets. After making trips to the region, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III also helped facilitate the transfer of Soviet-era S-300 missile defense systems from Slovakia while the United States and allies backfilled the country with Patriot missile defenses.

    Despite Russia’s superior numbers and more sophisticated jets, Ukraine used the air defense systems to prevent Russia from taking control of the skies.
    […]

    “Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a key Ukrainian capability in the war,” read a June 22 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, which has closely tracked the conflict since it began Feb. 24.

    Ukraine made sizable purchases of Turkish Bayraktar drones prior to the conflict.

    The 30-foot-wingspan Bayraktar has destroyed Russian artillery and tanks with laser-guided bombs.

    To supplement Ukraine’s effective unmanned air strategy, DOD has transferred 700 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems, Puma UASs, and 121 of the Air Force’s Phoenix Ghost UASs. To strengthen the air picture, DOD transferred 22 counter-artillery radars, four counter-mortar radars, and four air surveillance radars.

    But Russia has begun to stymie Ukraine’s UAS advantage by beefing up its S-300 and S-400 air defenses on the Russian side of the border, reports Foreign Policy Magazine.

    The Pentagon declined to comment on the UAS report, and a Ukrainian defense official did not immediately respond to inquiries from Air Force Magazine.

    War is dynamic (of course) and there are always constraints on shipments (of course). Getting available stuff out quickly makes sense.

    AirAndSpaceForces.com (from July 8):

    For Ukraine’s recent precision artillery success, the air defense picture has remained static 135 days into the conflict.

    Ukraine is often praised by DOD officials for its skillful employment of legacy Soviet systems to deny Russia air superiority, but in recent weeks, Russian missiles have struck civilian targets, and the Ukrainian Air Force remains limited in the sorties it can fly amid near-total Russian surface-to-air missile coverage.

    A July 1 promise by President Joe Biden to buy and deliver sophisticated new National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), the same used to protect the U.S. capital, still has no delivery date.

    “It’s several months,” the defense official said in response to a question from Air Force Magazine. “I can’t give you details of where it is in the contracting process. But, you know, we don’t see any challenges.”

    […]

    The senior defense official said future aid packages now discussed by DOD and partners include more coastal defense and air defense systems that move away from Soviet-era air defenses.

    The timeline for providing the aid is also shifting.

    “We’re ready for and thinking about Ukraine’s needs over months and years,” the official said.

    If they have to contract to build new ones for Ukraine, that could easily drag-out the timeline, especially in times of strained supply chains. But I have no inside knowledge.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    Another Scott

    I assume that the attempted flattening of Ukrainian cities is a replay of what they did in Syria.  And they hope for another flood of people leaving the country and straining western Europe.  While they’re also cutting off gas supplies and straining the world-wide grain market.  And driving up oil prices.  And all the rest.

    VVP and his minions aren’t deep thinkers.  They try to terrorize people and break stuff to try to get what they want.  It’s what they always do.

    Give me what I want or you’ll regret it!!

    I don’t think it will work this time.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  19. 19.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:

    Every world leader who said no to anything Zelenskyy has asked for since February

    There is the moral case, and like you, I’m pretty angry at the way world leaders are falling-down on this.  But then there’s the case of self-interest, and specifically in the case of the EU’s leadership.  And I’m appalled at the way the EU’s leaders have conducted themselves.

    WHAT THE FUCK, DO YOU EXPECT US TO BAIL YOU OUT EVERY GODDAMN TIME?  These idiots don’t realize that if the GrOPers take over in 2024, they’ll need to deal with Putin on their own!  FFS, what a bunch imbeciles.  FFS.

    It should be in their common self-interest to see Putin squashed like a fucking bug, fucking NOW, long before the 2024 election.  And instead they go pussyfooting around.  Fucking cowardly imbeciles.

  20. 20.

    NutmegAgain

    Well, the universe of Wiki tells me that the cross-eyed homunculus who says Ukrainians are spawns of Satan, etc, is a (former) neo-Nazi. Hmf. Can you really ever be a former Nazi? In addition of all the obvious horror and injustice of this war, it seems to have opened a hellgate for some especially gruesome bags of skin to step forward and spew.

  21. 21.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Very serious question:  How long can Vlad keep this up?  This is a not insignificant expense of resources, he can’t replace any of these munitions a fraction as fast as he’s using them, and I doubt seriously he’s making great strides in destroying civilian infrastructure if he’s spreading it all over Ukraine instead of pounding one city with artillery.  It’s the gross terrorism tactic of a sadistic, not-very-bright bully, it deliberately kills innocent people, but does he have the ammunition to do it long enough to render any of Ukraine unlivable?

  22. 22.

    lowtechcyclist

    I honestly do not understand the calculus in DC, London, Paris, Berlin, and other allied capitols that delayed this being done until now. Despite Ukraine’s successes in the defense of Kyiv, in pushing the Russians back in Kharkiv, and in chewing away at them in Kherson; that these more advanced air defense systems are just now getting to Ukraine 9 months into the war just mystifies me. I just do not understand the strategic thinking here.

    I know that at various times, Western governments have been afraid that giving too-powerful weaponry to Ukraine would cause Putin to go nuclear.  I can understand, for instance, why the U.S. gave HIMARS to Ukraine, but didn’t give Ukraine the ammunition for it that could potentially strike well into Russia.

    But air defense systems are inherently defensive, hence weren’t a threat to anyone.  And Russia’s been bombing and shelling Ukraine’s cities since the early days of the war.  It would have been safe to give them to Ukraine once it was clear that Russia wasn’t able to launch any sort of rapid advance that would result in a NASAMS unit falling into their hands.

    There has been a lot of carnage in Ukraine that could have been defended against.

    It goes all the way back to last year, when Israel blocked the American sale of an Iron Dome system to Ukraine. (It was jointly developed by the U.S. and Israel, so both countries had a veto on its sale to third party nations.)  Back then, they didn’t want to offend the Russians.  I don’t know what their excuse has been since Russia invaded Ukraine.

  23. 23.

    Carlo Graziani

    Thanks to our conscientiousness, we managed to save a tenth of the energy on average in the country, which allowed the system to work more stably. And our goal should be to save a quarter of electricity precisely during these peak hours.

    It should be done today and in the near future.

    Please postpone the energy consumption of appliances that require a lot of electricity to other hours of the day. It is not difficult for an individual, and it gives a great result within the scale of our entire country.

    I don’t ordinarily comment on Zelenskyy’s addresses, but this struck me as a noteworthy bit of war-leader political rhetoric. It’s an appeal to use energy mindfully of the needs of the whole nation, but phrased in a way that anyone who buys into the idea is making a real difference to the nation’s struggle.

    The man really has an intuitive genius reminiscent of Churchill. Whose merits did not lie as much in military acumen or even in statecraft, so much as in his ability to make citizens of the UK believe, by the mere force of his rhetoric, that they were part of a nation, that they struggled together, and that their common goal was a noble, worthy cause, which they could all contribute to — and that these contributions would ennoble their hardships, and help bring about final victory.

    This is the aspect of Churchill that makes him a deathless historical figure. From the beginning of the Ukraine war, I’ve felt that Zelenskyy is his true heir — as irreplaceable rhetorical war leader in dire times. And in ways large and small, he keeps confirming that judgment.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: I have yet to see any reporting that indicated we actually provided any Patriot batteries. And yes, having to build from scratch rather than transfer from existing stock does add a significant delay.

  25. 25.

    Redshift

    Color me surprised – dude thinks he’s a super genius at everything because he made a lot of money. Talks to a brutal dictator who says he’ll start WWIII unless we start negotiations by giving him everything he wants, and his reaction is “gosh, that must be real, surrendering to stop it is the only choice and let’s not think beyond that!”

    Also, it does not seem like a great business decision to demonstrate that the communications system you crowed about supplying gets turned on and off based on who you personally decide is the rightful owner of a piece of territory.

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Redshift: And worse than all that, he’s making decisions that will affect tens of millions of lives, based on his personal fortunes.  He’s taking Putin’s side partially b/c he doesn’t want his satellites to be shot down.  The fucker.

    This is why we need to banish all plutocrats from influencing our government: they don’t have the interests of our citizenry or our nation at heart — they only care about their fucking money.

  29. 29.

    Tony G

    @Villago Delenda Est: The London Blitz — which started in September of 1940 when Hitler made the stupid decision to redirect the Luftwaffe from military targets to civilian targets — did not break the spirit of the British people.  Several years later, Hitler blew his brains out.  Putin is as ignorant of history as he is of everything else.

  31. 31.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    @Carlo Graziani: Agreed wholeheartedly. Some of this I’m sure is thanks to his background as a performer, someone working with an audience his whole life, who knows exactly how to play to each crowd. If you watch some of the old Kvartal 95 shows, he is a showman for sure.

    I’m not saying his leadership now is all show–not in the least. I truly think he is the greatest political leader I’ve seen in my lifetime. But that he has taken those skills he honed on the entertainment stage and brilliantly applied them to the political and world stage. He knows exactly what to say, how to say it, when to say it, etc.

    I know he’s not perfect, per se. But I think he was the perfect man for this moment.

  33. 33.

    bookworm1398

    I’ve had the feeling for some time that EU leaders want Ukraine to win, but not too quickly. Drag it out to give a chance for Putin to lose power. So supply enough weapons to match that goal and no more.

  35. 35.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Bill Arnold: It was a “Bomber” Harris, Hap Arnold, and Curtis LeMay move, also.  German war production peaked in 1944, and the bombing campaign of the Allies didn’t do nearly as much damage as the Douhet acolytes thought it would, even with the top secret Norden bombsight deployed for “pinpoint” targeting.  At best it diverted Luftwaffe assets to protecting Germany instead of being used on the eastern front.

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    Thread.

    7/ Whoever was appointed as theatre commander would have overseen the Oct. 10 cruise missile strikes, which Ukrainian intelligence reported had been planned as early as Oct. 2 (and which Surovikin certainly did not plan, prepare for, and conduct on the day of his appointment).

    — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 12, 2022

    Good point.

    This is yet more proof that the attacks on Ukraine’s cities is more of the same from VVP’s russia. It’s the way they fight war, and not a result of the new guy taking charge.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  37. 37.

    Carlo Graziani

    According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be accomplished “no matter what,” including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome.”

    Well, this statement by Putin about where Russian nuclear use red lines lie is actually apropos. It highlights the bullshit gap between rhetorical threats and reality.

    The Russians have just suffered what most of their war supporters would consder their 9/11: The Kerch bridge explosion. And they elected not to employ a “nuclear strike”. But Putin would like to keep that fear alive, so the red line is now a Crimean invasion.

    I don’t happen to believe that ground operations in Crimea make sense for the UA. But I’m really getting the feeling that the US put a major choke-hold deterrence on Russia with respect to nuclear weapons use. If the Russians won’t indulge their psychotic proclivities over Kerch, then I personally think that the rest of Putin’s nuclear posturing needs to be marked to market as nearly irrelevant. “Your regime’s survival would be at risk” appears to be a dispositive argument with him.

  38. 38.

    randy khan

    I won’t say it’s remarkable how business people think they are instant experts in everything, but it’s always kind of scary and/or amusing, depending on how seriously they are taken.

    Even 10 seconds of thought would tell you that Putin was trying to play Musk, since the ask was basically to leave things where they were a month ago.  There’s literally no chance Ukraine would agree to that.

  39. 39.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Carlo Graziani: Yeah, Putin’s peace proposal is validate my theft of all your territory since 2014.  He’s in no position for a bargain like that, and it’s highly unlikely that Zelenskyy and Ukraine will even entertain that.  They’ve got the strategic initiative now, and they’re not going to let it go to waste.  Musk is a dipshit for even thinking that might be a reasonable thing. Slava Ukraini!

  43. 43.

    Jay

    @bookworm1398:

    In the beginning, what could be sent to Ukraine was limited to what they could use “now”. So Javelins, Stingers, EU Equivalents, (thanks to the NATO training missions prior to the current re-invasion) and compatable ex-Soviet/Warsaw Pact gear. An issue with a lot of the ex-Soviet/Warsaw Pact gear was a lot of it was beat up, mothballed and needed time/service to be in good enough shape for it to be useable by Ukraine.

    Eg. 152mm artillary and SPG’s. Currently, nobody in “The West” makes Soviet era 152 mm shells, has any left in inventory, so Ukraine is pretty much scavenging abandoned Russian, Belorussian and Iranian shells, (seized shipments bound for Yemen).

    Later, due to training missions for the UA in Britain, Poland, Germany, on the operation, care and feeding of NATO gear, Cesar’s and M-777’s started to flow into Ukraine.

    Right now there is a Social Media push to “free the leapards”, but like F-16’s, Eurofighters, F-22’s, etc, the Ukrainian Military cannot (right now), operate, maintain, supply and service them. With the Leapards, half of the stock in Europe has been mothballed for over 5 years.

    When Canada decided we needed tanks in Afghanistan, we didn’t ship over our Leapard L1’s, as they were 1970’s obsolete and only used for training. We bought used/upgraded/refitted Dutch Leapard L2’s, shipped our tankers over to Afghanistan where they trained on other NATO Nations Leapards during the 6 months it took to referb and ship the Dutch Leapards.

  44. 44.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Political rhetoric is a weapon, properly employed. Arguably, in the right circumstances, it can be more important than actual weapons. It’s usually more easily available to illiberal, demagogic, populist causes — Guevara, Castro, Peron, for example, or the depressing succession of proto-Trumps e.g. Berlusconi, Bolsonero, Orban, Le Pen, etc. Not to mention Putin himself, who is a master of the form.

    Having an example who is a champion of democratic virtues of liberty is rare. Churchill was one (here come the nitpickers, I can see the cloud of dust on the horizon). I suppose that it takes this kind of crisis to evoke such a figure, since usually, democracies require no more than competence of their leaders. Whatever the case may be,. in this crisis Ukraine is lucky to have Zelenskyy, and so are we.

  45. 45.

    Anonymous At Work

    Question: What’s the surveillance of RU forces from within like?  What keeps them tied to defending Kherson when the superior officers all fled for Crimea or further away?  If it is simple surveillance streamed, would that make a better target than anything except pontoon bridges?

  46. 46.

    Lyrebird

    @dr. luba: Thanks for offering a safe, warm laugh even when non stop crying would be understandble.

    If you see this, may I ask, do you think it helps to buy stuff from Ukrainian sellers on Etsy etc?  Not the fundraising merch, I mean the products that were already being sold, ornaments, sweaters, etc.  A friend was saying that she figures any income boost to someone there is probably a help.

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    saw a list yesterday listing all the times Putin made nuclear threats,

    started in 1999, has re-issued the threats every 2 years or so, has issued half a dozen nuclear threats since re-invading Ukraine,

    and you know what, everything he said was a “red line” has been crossed time and time again, with out Russian Nuke Forces even going to alert.

  48. 48.

    oldster

    @Carlo Graziani:

    “This is the aspect of Churchill that makes him a deathless historical figure. From the beginning of the Ukraine war, I’ve felt that Zelenskyy is his true heir — as irreplaceable rhetorical war leader in dire times. And in ways large and small, he keeps confirming that judgment.”

    My prediction: in 50 years, they will not call Zelenskyy “Churchillian”.

    They will call Churchill “Zelenskyan”.

  49. 49.

    Another Scott

    @Anonymous At Work: The troops are being watched.

    WarsawInstitute.org (from September 20):

    Ukraine has scaled down its offensive in the country’s east. The state’s military command refused a further march putting at risk Ukrainian personnel. A strong Russian “Centre” group has continued its slow advance towards Bakhmut and Sloviansk. They were supplemented with the “West” group of troops that had withdrawn from Izium. It is now a top priority for Kyiv to strengthen its hold on recently recaptured territories west of the Oskil River. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the recently retaken city of Izium, marking a successful operation to oust the Russians from the Kharkiv region. The crushing Ukrainian victory in the Kharkiv region should not overshadow the successes around Kherson despite small territorial gains. The offensive in the south did not go as smoothly as in the Kharkiv region due to terrain constraints. In the east, Ukrainian forces were sheltered by a dense stand of pine forests, able to deploy armored forces unnoticed. Ukraine’s south is predominantly an agricultural area––with few forests and numerous steppes shattered with irrigation channels. It is in the south that Russia has deployed its best personnel and Chechen battalions, or barrier troops, with orders to shoot if front-line troops either deserted or retreated without permission. But the Russian command made a mistake when directing most reinforcements to the right bank of the Dnieper River from the east. Left at that side of the river, the Russian grouping is now in a tough position. About 20,000 Russian soldiers are now stranded in Kherson. Ukrainian officials have said their deployment has been critical in the fight to repel Russian troops and to strike their supply lines on the Dnieper. In consequence, Russian troops retreat south towards Kherson along the river. What is now key in morale after the Ukrainian “Blitzkrieg” by Kherson. The Russian forces have poor morale–– not incidentally, Russian troops on the right bank of the Dnipro have started negotiating their surrender with Ukrainian forces. Tensions run high between the Kremlin and top Russian generals. Whether the army is loyal to Russian state officials is yet another thorny issue. The military command of the Russian Federation has suspended the sending of new, already formed units into the territory of Ukraine. Kremlin-loyal Russian propaganda outlets seek to blame the army for failures––and not Putin. What the army will do next is unknown. The attitude of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu could be crucial here.

    (emphasis added.)

    The author’s bio indicates he’s an expert on Russia, but no mention of expertise in military affairs. So, caveat emptor, but others have said similar things about the way russia encourages troops not to retreat or surrender.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  50. 50.

    Jay

    @Lyrebird:

    there are a large number of internally displaced Ukrainians and externally displaced Ukrainians who have no means of earning an. income other than by selling their crafts and other stuff on social media/commerce sites like Esty.

  53. 53.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    @Lyrebird: I absolutely think it helps. Each individual Ukrainian is in need, and any little bit they get will help. I’ve bought a few things from Ukrainian Etsy sellers. Not big items, not a ton of money, but if everyone does a little, it adds up to a lot.

  55. 55.

    Gravenstone

    including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea

    I’m still not convinced Putin is irrational enough to deploy nukes in territory he believes is Russian. Maybe he is far enough around the bend (or desperate enough). Ideally, we never have to find out.

  56. 56.

    Ksmiami

    @Leslie: time to eliminate Russia as it exists today. Sorry not sorry. Sick of this nation of criminals, liars and serfs. Fucking pathetic country.

  58. 58.

    Jinchi

    @Gravenstone: I’m still not convinced Putin is irrational enough to deploy nukes in territory he believes is Russian.

    If Putin uses nukes in Ukraine, he loses everything. There is no way that NATO won’t respond. Right now he’s like the madman waving a gun, threatening to kill everyone in sight, and the rest of the world is like the policeman trying to talk him down.

    If he uses a nuke, he becomes the equivalent of an active shooter.

  59. 59.

    bjacques

    What’s wrong with Musk’s face in the picture above? It looks like a serious case of road rash. And, wouldn’t it be up to the US government as whether the Starlink terminals and satellite constellation are usable in Kherson Oblast and Crimea, since my tax dollars paid for them? I would hope the contract would have at least included that option. It makes me doubt Musk sabotaged the system, but I’m happy if he takes the public hit to the goodwill he had built up over it.

  61. 61.

    catfishncod

    @bjacques: VVP doesn’t care if Musk is actually stupid enough to try and double-cross the US government so blatantly (though he’ll take it if he gets it).

    VVP is a KGB agent, and Musk has shown himself to be a susceptible mark / “useful idiot”. US intelligence now has to factor that into any further reliance on Musk’s services, and VVP is always mindful of his oldest adversaries in the Company and its cohorts. He also knows Musk has a huge bullhorn and it’s more chaff thrown in the social media sky. These factors have more value than any short-term tactical gains in Starlink service or lack thereof.

    Despite feeling that Musk has done humanity great long-term services with his stewardship of PayPal, SpaceX, and Tesla… he’s (IMNSHO) rapidly reaching the limit of his usefulness to Western civilization.

  62. 62.

    Paul in KY

    @Carlo Graziani: I think you are employing a bit too much hyperbole when you compare the bridge explosion to 911.

    We had 3,000 murdered on that awful day.  That certainly overwhelms the fact that the trade centers were destroyed in the process.

  63. 63.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gravenstone: I have a feeling that whatever the composition of the siloviki war committee that has taken over control of the war from Putin’s previous sole mastery, Putin is probably the “dovish” (I know…) voice at the table, keeping the nationalist loonies from ordering, say, a nuclear strike at supply areas in eastern Ukrainethat would almost certainly kill NATO personnel and bring down The Biggest Hammer In The World on the Special Military Operation.

    The fact that Putin’s worldview is the weird, anachronistic Russo-imperialist larded with ethnic particularist intolerance and cultural-conservative venom that it is does not make him crazy, and it’s a mistake to believe him to be unbalanced simply because that outlook is so alien to our own. There’s no real reason to believe that he would not continue to pragmatically choose regime survival over Samson option-type spite, or that he cannot calculate obvious consequences of decisions.

    The decision to invade Ukraine in the first place was an uncharacteristic mad gamble for him, but the SMO’s failure was contingent on many unforseeable factors, and certainly not foreordained — at least, few in the West,or even in Ukraine would have thought it so on 1 March 2022.

  64. 64.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Paul in KY: I was referring to the significance of the attack in the minds of Russians, and to the shock that it generates. Obviously — I mean, obviously — not to the catastrophic nature of the two events.

  65. 65.

    Paul in KY

    @Carlo Graziani: OK, understand. They (Russian people) really must be weenies to feel that way after a section of a massive bridge miles long was put out of commission while they are engaged in a war (with 20 people killed during the operation).

  66. 66.

    Jinchi

    @Paul in KY: We had 3,000 murdered on that awful day. That certainly overwhelms the fact that the trade centers were destroyed in the process.

    Yeah, we also weren’t fighting a brutal war at the time. The Kerch bridge was an obvious high value target from the moment it was built, because it’s a critical artery for supporting the occupation in Crimea.

    Russians can be shocked that Ukraine succeeded in attacking it, since it’s about as far from the frontlines as it’s possible to get and still be in Ukraine. But they can’t be surprised that the Ukrainians tried.

  67. 67.

    way2blue

    Oh. Have I pieced this together »  Musk contacts Putin (as one does).  And Putin tells him that his nuclear red line is Ukraine advancing into Crimea.  Thus, Musk turning on StarLink over Crimea would inevitably trigger nuclear strikes.  This was supposed to be a super secret conversation, but Musk told a journalist. And now he’s in double Dutch, trying to take back his words.  But not his panic…  Do I have this right?  A useful idiot?

  68. 68.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Paul in KY:  @Jinchi:

    It is helpful to try to enter the mindset of the Russian ruling elite, and of the public (not the same thing), as alien as those might be, because seeing them from our own vantage point doesn’t help us understand how they make decisions, or what they might do next.

    This is not the same as showing them sympathy. It is merely the observation that it is unhelpful (where not actually dangerous) to dismiss what they say and how they behave as “irrational”, because irrationality is everywhere, and yet everyone does everything for reasons that appear good and sufficient to themselves and their tribe.

    Putin, and the siloviki, were convinced that they were winning the war until very recently. You can date the change in that conviction to the advent of “mobilization”, which destroys the “normalcy” that was the keystone of Putin’s Russian order. The reason for “don’t say War” laws, for wanting Crimea to remain a sunny vacation spot despite a shooting war not 50 miles away, for iron control of all media, was Putin’s conviction that Russian popular passivity and sense of civic normalcy would produce stability that was the key to his continued power and control.  Even the UA SOF attacks on Saki and Dzhankoi in Crimea last summer didn’t challenge that normalcy very much.

    But the Kherson offensive and the Kharkiv debacle have transformed the war, and the strategy of waiting until Europe freezes in the winter dark doesn’t seem like such a winner anymore, since the Ukrainians may have won anyway by then. So mobilization, which Putin had strained every fiber to avoid since the beginning of the war, was forced on him, despite the fact that it completely wrecks “normalcy”, presumably by a coterie of panicked siloviki who have now wrested some control of the war from him.

    Into this new, uncertain moment, when the issues of the war that they thought under control are suddenly spiraling away from them, something that they had thought impossible happens: A truck bomb takes down Kerch as a rail link.  It’s an incredible shock, the more so as that bridge was a major part of the showcase of “normalcy”. The Ukrainians have not only struck a possibly killing blow at Russian logistics in the south: they also took a shit all over Putin’s dream of Russian greatness decades in the making.

    These guys have gone from total mastery to helplessly looking for a plan, any plan, that will retrieve any scrap of dignity and self-respect, and above all control, in the war.  What they’ve come up with—bombarding Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian populations—is not only bestial, but also a terrible plan, because it is certain to fail to achieve any militarily useful goal.  But the Kremlin’s ability to recognize a bad plan when they see one has been shown to be limited many times in this war, and in the end a bad plan may be better than no plan at all.

  69. 69.

    Andrya

    There’s a proverb in French that translates as “What a wicked animal.  When one attacks it, it defends itself”.  This isn’t ethical, and it isn’t even logical, but people are wired to think this way.  Witness Hitler’s rage when Britain bombed Berlin during the battle of Britain (which lead to his strategically disastrous decision to switch the bombing of Britain from military to civilian targets).

    The russian hawks appear to believe that they have some kind of existential, God given right to rule (& tyrannize) the smaller countries on their periphery.  And that for those countries to object is a kind of treason.  To quote Dimitri Medvedev:  “… I hate them. They are bastards and scum.  They want death to us, Russia,” Medvedev wrote, adding that “as long as I’m alive, I will do everything to make them disappear.”  (link)

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