Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

If you’re looking for someone who’s young and athletic, go watch a fucking movie.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

He really is that stupid.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

This country desperately needs a functioning Fourth Estate.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

We won’t go back.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

“But what about the lurkers?”

I really should read my own blog.

It’s not hopeless, and we’re not helpless.

The words do not have to be perfect.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 236: Belarusian Military Training & Russia Pounds Ukraine Again

War for Ukraine Day 236: Belarusian Military Training & Russia Pounds Ukraine Again

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The Belarusian military put out a clip of their training. It has now been rescored several times, but regardless of the music, the question while watching it is: “Da fuck they doin ova der?”

I personally think given its mid October that someone should rescore it to Thriller.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Strong people of the indomitable country!

Today was a difficult day. The morning of a new Russian terrorist attack. Hours of clearing debris and eliminating the consequences of strikes. The evening of battles for Ukraine and news for Ukraine.

The next stage of the release of our people from Russian captivity took place – we managed to return 108 Ukrainian women. Officers, sergeants, privates. Army, Navy, territorial defense, National Guard, border guards.

96 are servicemen, 37 of them are evacuees from Azovstal. 12 – civilians.

Among those released today are those who were captured long before the full-scale war. We do not forget about any of our people – we have to return them all. And we will return them all.

Our exchange team continues this work: Budanov, Yermak, Usov, Maliuk, Lubinets and others.

I am grateful to all involved for this success, and I also thank all those who replenish our exchange fund, who ensure the capture of enemies.

The more Russian prisoners we have, the sooner we will be able to free our heroes. Every Ukrainian warrior, every frontline commander should remember this.

Throughout the day, the clearing of rubble continues in those places where the Russian terrorists managed to hit today.

In Kyiv, they killed a young family, targeting an apartment building with an Iranian “Shahed”. A guy and a 6 months pregnant girl… Vladimir Putin can mark another “achievement” – he killed another pregnant woman.

In total, four people were killed by this “Shahed” alone. There were other hits. More than 25 settlements of our country were attacked this night and morning.

Eternal memory to all victims of Russian terror!

Right now there is a new Russian drone attack – there are downings.

The world can and must stop this terror. When we talk about Ukraine’s need for air and missile defense, we are talking about real lives that are being taken by terrorists. We manage to shoot down some of the missiles and drones. In just 12 hours from 9 p.m. Sunday, 37 Iranian “Shaheds” and several cruise missiles were destroyed.

But in order to guarantee the protection of our skies and to reduce the capabilities of Russian terrorists to zero, we need significantly more modern air defense systems and a greater missile provision for such systems.

And this is not only Ukrainian interest. The fewer terrorist opportunities Russia has, the sooner this war will end.

Russia stands no chance on the battlefield. And it tries to cover up its military defeats with terror. Why does it need terror? To put pressure on us, on Europe, on the whole world.

Terrorists must be neutralized. This rule applies equally effectively everywhere, and it will affect Russian terror in the same way.

When Russian terror capabilities are neutralized by the joint efforts with our partners, Russia will have no choice but to think about peace.

And I thank all our Air Force fighters, anti-aircraft fighters, other warriors who are involved in countering Russian attacks! Every Russian missile shot down and every drone destroyed is a life saved.

I am also grateful to everyone who is involved in eliminating the consequences of terrorist attacks: our rescuers, policemen, doctors, energy workers, utility workers, heads of local self-government, government officials and business representatives who help.

Today’s Russian missile and drone attack also caused new power outages, but this is being corrected. Restoration work is ongoing. This form of terror will not give Russia anything even now, when we still do not have a sufficient number of air defense and missile defense systems.

But for this our unity must stay maximal. Please take the request of energy providers into account and consciously consume electricity during the hours of peak load on the power system. This will enable the whole country to go through this period more stably.

Please help local communities eliminate the consequences of terrorist attacks, if your business has the opportunity to do so. Please take care of your acquaintances and neighbors who are alone and need attention or help, especially the elderly. And be sure to thank those who are involved in the defense of our state and in eliminating the consequences of terrorist attacks, who maintain normal life despite any attempts by Russia to break it.

Our unity, our attention to each other, our ability to fight and work together for common interests is a guarantee of Ukrainian victory and the defeat of terrorists. There is no such weapon in Iran or elsewhere that can break a nation that is aware of what it is fighting for and what it will never forgive the enemy for.

I spoke today with the President of the United Arab Emirates. I thanked him for supporting Ukraine, particularly at the level of the UN and other international organizations.

We discussed the threat posed by Russia to global food security. I assured Mr. President that Ukraine can and will remain a guarantor of food security and, therefore, social stability of all our partners.

We are preparing for important negotiations scheduled for this and next week on further defense and financial support for our country.

We will do everything for the victory of Ukraine.

Eternal glory to all our warriors!

Eternal glory to our strong people!

Glory to Ukraine!

As I indicated in the title, the Russians opened up on Ukraine early this morning. Again. A lot of the today’s strikes, especially those targeting Kyiv, were done with the drones that Russia has purchased from Iran.

Ukraine’s defense ratio is still outstanding:

Not everyone was so lucky:

Regardless of what the US and our EU and NATO, as well as non-EU and non-NATO allies may be doing to supply Ukraine with more effective offensive and defensive weaponry, the Ukrainians are not waiting around:

 

Here’s some really good news!

I’m pretty sure this is not what SU 34s are supposed to do.

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron:

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Все буде Україна!🇺🇦 #славаукраїні #героямслава #песпатрон

♬ ukrainian beauty – 🧿

The caption machine translates as:

Everything will be Ukraine! 🇺🇦 #SlavaUkraini #GloryToHeroes #PatronDog

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

74Comments

  1. 1.

    Urza

    Ok I didn’t get very far yet.  How can the Belarussians think thats actual training for anything but a circus?

  2. 2.

    Anonymous At Work

    With…something…to the Belarusian military, if one can score a military exercise to the Benny Hill theme, one MUST score the military exercise to the Benny Hill theme.  And boy, that one demands the Benny Hill theme.

  3. 3.

    Anonymous At Work

    Also, the Russian lite colonel in charge of Far East conscription found dead at home today.  Apparently, they haven’t ruled out suicide.  I’m hoping for suicide by 6 bullets to the back.  Not the first press-gang leader to die suddenly and unexpectedly, and not the last.

  4. 4.

    Ksmiami

    Send everything to Ukraine and blockade/ interdict all shipments from Iran. Kick Russia off of all international organizations and standards etc. The Russian state must die

  6. 6.

    Feathers

    I saw that video earlier. All I could think of was that some college cheer team should recreate it. Watching it again, perhaps drag queens. It would make a great Ru Paul challenge. “I want to see some Belarusian Army realness.”

    On a harsher note: what is Iran getting out of this? Cash? I’ve always thought of them as not good, but not as evil as portrayed. This is changing that notion fast.

    Realizing that my notion of Iran is shaped by all the lovely Iranian people I know, including some here as graduate students. But they all hate the current government, so there is that.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Feathers: This thread answers your question:

  13. 13.

    Geminid

    @Feathers: Iran’s government has devoted a sizeable portion of the nation’s industrial base and engineering talent to weapons development and production. The manufacturers are owned by people connected with senior Revolutionary Guard Corp leaders and/or powerful politicians. These weapons sales are putting a lot of money into a lot of pockets.

    Also, I think Iran’s rulers have accepted being sanctioned and shunned, and are very willing to collaborate with another outlaw nation that, as a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council, can give Iran diplomatic protection.

  14. 14.

    TaMara

    I like the Full Monty version of the Beleruis training.  But Benny Hill would work.

    Those civilian deaths…so infuriating. Fuck Putin and his enablers

  15. 15.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    The fact that Iran feels like this is the best option for them is something else we can thank Trump and the idiots in the GOP for. If he hadn’t trashed the treaty, Iran would have something to lose.

  18. 18.

    Alison Rose

    “The pilots ejected just before the crash and reportedly survived.”

    Well ain’t that a shame.

    Not that I had warm cuddly feelings toward Iran before this, but now…ugh. I wonder if they get some kind of sick satisfaction whenever they hear Zelenskyy or someone else mention the death and destruction wrought by one of their damn drones. I will never understand people who enjoying terrorizing others. There is something seriously broken there.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  21. 21.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Ksmiami: By an estimate in an Al Jazeera article, Iran has placed 130,000 rockets in southern Lebenon. That seems like an incredible number, but other sources agree with it.

    Israel and Iran have been in an undeclared war for some years now, but the Israelis know that Iran will launch those rockets at Israel’s cities if Israel makes any major attacks on it. The Iranians and Hezbollah have bragged about this.

    The Israelis are prepared to pay that price, but not for Ukraine, a bigger nation that already is backed by even larger countries like the US, Germany, France and the UK.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Damien: The problem is that American involvement strengthens the government’s position. Moral support yes. But anything overt or that could become known is a good way to actually help the Iranian government.

  25. 25.

    Ruckus

    @Alison Rose:

    “I will never understand people who enjoying terrorizing others.

    There is something seriously broken there.”

    Iran leaders are hard core religious zealots with money issues. How can they not be broken? And vlad is one seriously deranged asshole who has gathered a number of allies within his country by not actually standing in their ways while they screw over Russia, likely because he’s getting a pretty good cut. It’s like an extremely obnoxious version of the mafia who own an entire country which values it’s citizens only as much as they can help him get richer, while the normal citizens get jack and shit. Which one is worse? I’d go with Iran if I had to pick, but only because they have fewer natural resources and worse “religious” stuff.

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Ksmiami: This would be a bad idea. The last thing anyone needs is Israel overtly attacking Iran outside of the strikes in Syria.

  27. 27.

    NutmegAgain

    @Alison Rose:  To you & PlanetJant–I confess I kind of love the flaming jump rope and then the serpentine move with the flaming jump rope. Imaginative!

  28. 28.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    Here’s a thread with various orchestrations, including two clips using Yackety Sax, known to many as the Benny Hill theme. Plus the Blue Danube, and selections from The Village People. Revel in the ridiculousity!

  29. 29.

    StringOnAStick

    I realized yesterday just how lucky we are to have Adam’s daily summary on what is happening in Ukraine; a friend who I know is a big supporter said last night “I don’t know how it’s going in Ukraine since it’s barely in the news anymore” .  He works a ton of hours 9.5 months of the year and he’s just about done for this one, so that’s part of why he’s not getting much information.  Still, the best coverage of this war is right here in Balloon Juice.

  30. 30.

    Alison Rose

    @StringOnAStick: Yeah, I was texting with a not-very-online friend recently and I mentioned the war, and she was like “Oh that’s still going on” and I thought………..wat. She doesn’t work crazy hours or anything, she just isn’t tuned in to most stuff. Sometimes I envy her but I also think it’s important as a global citizen to be aware of at least some of what’s happening in the world, especially something this huge.

  32. 32.

    prostratedragon

    @Feathers:  I just saw a collegiate drumline stepshow that looked more convincing than this; at least the participants showed a lot more stamina.

    As for Iran, I too have known lovely people from there, but the current government seems at last to be intent on breaking the Shah’s record for horribleness, between selling missiles to a genocide and probably covering up a massacre in their prison.

  33. 33.

    Andrya

    Adam- there’s something that I don’t understand here.  I had thought the russian problem with expending their precision guided missiles was that due to sanctions, they could not replace the electronic guidance- making their ordnance destructive but militarily ineffective.  However, I thought they (russia) could produce crude “point ’em and shoot ’em” type stuff.  Is that not true?  They do have chemists, yes?   And if my original idea was correct, how are the Iranians able to help?  Aren’t they also sanctioned re: state of the art military electronics?

    I completely agree with Sister Machine Gun- if T**** had not trashed the Iran treaty, we would have some clout over Iran’s support of russia.

  35. 35.

    jonas

    @prostratedragon: If TFG hadn’t shredded the nuclear agreement and reimposed sanctions, we might have had a modicum of leverage over them and they would have had an incentive to stay out of this particular fight.
    Not sure what we could do about the domestic unrest. On one hand, you want to support any grassroots movement that takes on those horrible mullahs. But the last time there was a serious uprising in Iran in (iirc) 2010 or thereabouts and everyone was getting all excited and putting green all over their FB pages and so on, the protesters were begging western governments and pundits to shut the hell up and let them deal with things because the last thing they needed was for their cause to look like it was some western-planted subversion. We all know how that went.​
     

    ETA: whoops, missed Sister Machine Gun’s comment upthread. What she said.

  36. 36.

    way2blue

    I read the following article today and found it depressingly helpful in understanding the twisted dynamic that has animated Russia’s malevolent imperialism since Ivan the Terrible:

    „Human Life Has No Value There“: Baltic Counterintelligence Officers Speak Candidly About Russian Cruelty

    The Estonian weekly Eesti Ekspress interviewed the heads and several employees of Estonia’s, Latvia’s, and Lithuania’s state security agencies. This is what they had to say regarding Russia…

    <  https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/120083694/human-life-has-no-value-there-baltic-counterintelligence-officers-speak-candidly-about-russian-cruelty  >

  37. 37.

    Chetan Murthy

    @sdhays: Or, to take a page from the way Adam described things yesterday, “what’s the worst that could happen?”  And for Israel the worst is a shooting war with Hezbollah at a time not of their choosing.  Asking Israel to take that risk is a big, big, big ask.

    I’m pretty salty sometimes about how Israel isn’t acting like an ally: they could be doing a shit-ton more to help Ukraine.  But even I’m not ready to ask them to risk getting into a shooting war, in order to help Ukraine.

  38. 38.

    Feathers

    @Adam L Silverman: @Bill Arnold: Thanks for these details, I’m having trouble getting my head around it.

    @Geminid: Thanks. I guess this is more what I’ve been wondering. Which assholes are shitting the bed. If the country’s falling apart, people start wanting a nest egg. You can’t build up that much of a military without it starting to have negative repercussions at home. Think I may dip back into some Ross Thomas.

    @prostratedragon: Yeah, watching the video, it’s like it’s a clueless guys vision of how tough guys show off.

    And it is sad how damn nice so many Iranians are. Islam is like Christianity in that when running as intended it’s lovely, when it curdles, things get ugly fast.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Andrya: I believe that the situation in Russia is that while basic munitions production is still possible, the country’s entire industrial economy is totally disrupted by sanctions and war and endemic corruption. If you think back to when domestic toilet paper and medical thermometers disappeared from Western store shelves in April 2021, and we learned to roll our eyes and mutter “supply chain”, well, that’s most of the Russian economy now. There’s no predicting the domestic  of any good, including high-priority military  weaponry. A reliable importer gives Russia a set of much safer options.

    My take, anyway.

  41. 41.

    jonas

    @Geminid: ​
      I can only assume that much of Israel’s nuclear arsenal isn’t intended for Damascus or Tehran, but for turning southern Lebanon into an ashen moonscape if worse came to worst.

  42. 42.

    patrick II

     

     

    @Geminid:

    Do you think Iran would have become quite the outlaw nation it is if Trump hadn’t abrogated the nuclear deal and re-imposed  sanctions?

    Playing tough guy has consequences.

  43. 43.

    ByRookorbyCrook

    The bat on the ice block makes me think the whole Belarussian routine was sponsored by Bacardi. The military choreographer has a future in Pop Warner cheerleading routines.

  44. 44.

    way2blue

    @Carlo Graziani: Is there some way Iran’s drone/missile supply chain can be disrupted?  I presume they have huge stockpiles, but it’s hard to watch drone attacks from the sidelines…

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    @way2blue: I just finished.  Deeply disturbing.  A taste, for those contemplating diving in:

    I drive back to Estonia. A few days later, we celebrate my great-aunt’s birthday. She’s turning 100. Her children say she’s in good shape, still as sharp as a tack, and climbed up onto the roof to teach the chimneysweep a thing or two just a few years ago. However, she hasn’t slept well since February 24th. Insomnia struck after reading the news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    „She’s afraid,“ say her children. „She’s afraid the rapists will come back again.“

  46. 46.

    Ivan X

    @Feathers: I discovered Ross Thomas during the start of the pandemic and I have torn through 24 of his 25 novels, and have just started the 25th. It will be bittersweet to finish. What a great author. His cynicism feels all too apt.

  48. 48.

    Carlo Graziani

    @way2blue: Unfortunately, Russia’s situation and Iran’s are not really comparable, despite the fact that both are under draconian Western sanctions. Iran has had decades to adapt, and most of that time it has not been technically at war.

    Russia, on the other hand, built itself up as a “modern” industrial nation on the cheap right up to March 2022, relying on mineral wealth to provide it with imported inputs to its finishing industries. It thus made itself uniquely vulnerable to sudden disruption of its economy by Western sanctions. And all of this is compounded by the spectacular levels of inefficiency and corruption that inhere in the Russian economy — especially where government contracts are concerned. And wartime emergency makes prewar military industrial planning documentation worth no more than the softness and absorbency of the paper that those plans are printed on. All of this makes Russia’s industrial output in 2022 a train wreck. But none of it applies to Iran.

    I believe that the Mullahs will get their comeuppance someday. But I can’t see a good way of extracting a price for their current behavior. We’ve already maxed out all pressure on Iran short of war.

  49. 49.

    Mallard Filmore

    @jonas:

    But the last time there was a serious uprising in Iran in (iirc) 2010 or thereabouts and everyone was getting all excited and putting green all over their FB pages and so on, the protesters were begging western governments and pundits to shut the hell up and let them deal with things because the last thing they needed was for their cause to look like it was some western-planted subversion.

    title: Iranian Kurdish women flee brutal crackdown, take up weapons

    link: https://youtu.be/K1g_vUP5ksc   (CNN)

  50. 50.

    Chetan Murthy

    Boris Bondarev, former RU diplomat in Geneva, and his assessment of RU.

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/sources-russia-misconduct-boris-bondarev

    Over the course of the war, Western leaders have become acutely aware of Russia’s military’s failings. But they do not seem to grasp that Russian foreign policy is equally broken. Multiple European officials have spoken about the need for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, and if their countries grow tired of bearing the energy and economic costs associated with supporting Kyiv, they could press Ukraine to make a deal. The West may be especially tempted to push Kyiv to sue for peace if Putin aggressively threatens to use nuclear weapons.

    But as long as Putin is in power, Ukraine will have no one in Moscow with whom to genuinely negotiate. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not be a reliable interlocutor, nor will any other Russian government apparatus. They are all extensions of Putin and his imperial agenda. Any cease-fire will just give Russia a chance to rearm before attacking again.

    There’s only one thing that can really stop Putin, and that is a comprehensive rout.

  51. 51.

    Andrya

    @Carlo Graziani:  Thanks, that makes a lot of sense.  Of course, it means the level of corruption in russia is staggering, as the Iranian gov’t has a lot of corruption too.

  52. 52.

    Alison Rose

    The Kyiv Independent has an interview with Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the deputy chief of the Ukraine Task Force Policy Group and secretary of the International Working Group on russian Sanctions, discussing the meaning, process, and possibility of getting russia designated as a state sponsor of terror.

    But here we’ve got Russia. If we look at the shelling of civilian areas, torture, and cases that might be considered genocide, we see that Russia is not just supporting terrorism; it is committing terrorist acts with a direct state agent — the state army. And (these acts) are regularly committed by the (Russian) army.

    So again, what Russia has committed is far beyond the threshold of what is considered consistent, committed terrorist acts. Moreover, these acts are being committed by state bodies and agents, which makes it clear that Russia is at least a state sponsor of terrorism or is a terrorist state.

    I mean. Yeah.

  53. 53.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: This thread from Kamil Galeev came to similar conclusions:

    Let’s discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia’s so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵 pic.twitter.com/gKUZ665ePm
    — Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 9, 2022

  54. 54.

    frosty

    @StringOnAStick: Still, the best coverage of this war is right here in Balloon Juice.

    I agree, Adam gives us a thorough roundup. I’ve also started checking Kos, mostly just his posts. He’s a former arty/logistics guy and he’s got some good perspective on things. Mark Sumner is good, too.

  56. 56.

    Ruckus

    @Andrya:

    Forbes says vlad is worth $26.4 billion, #46 on their list of billionaires in a country that pays him $140K/yr as their leader. He’s been a government employee for decades making far less. How did he get so wealthy on that salary? How does he live/own the house he supposedly owns on the shore of the black sea. He supposedly owns at least one very big yacht. How is he supposedly the wealthiest man in Russia? Wanna bet he cheats and all those other billionaires in Russia are skimming and paying him to help make them richer, all the while “his” countries average salary is supposedly $20K/yr? Wanna bet that their is some economic reason he thinks he owns Ukraine? Because I think that’s exactly what he believes, he owns Russia and Ukraine, no matter what any piece of paper says. And while a lot of the fighting has been almost a joke it is actually getting rather serious now, he’s blowing up big cities and killing civilians. In the long run he’ll likely lose this war and it might be because he falls out of fifth story window while polishing his almost bald head.

  58. 58.

    Geminid

    @elliottg: Israel and Saudi Arabia are now defacto allies. Saudi Arabia has not gone as far as its Gulf allies Bahrain and the UAE and established diplomatic and trade ties, but a couple decades of intelligence cooperation has advanced to a nascent mutual air defense alliance.

    The Saudis maintain they will not establish diplomatic relations until Palestinian rights are vindicated, but the government is preparing its citizens for normal relations. One sign of this was a recent article in a fancy Saudi magazine. It was about Israeli Arabs serving in the Israeli Defense Force. The magazine cover featured three handsome Israeli Arabs in IDF uniform. Such articles are not published without government approval.

  59. 59.

    Geminid

    @jonas: The 2010 Iranian demonstrations occurred after a reformist Presidential candidate was beaten by Mr. Ahmedinijad. Many Iranians in larger cities took to the streets to protest what they believed was a stolen election. The regime put reformist politicians under house arrest, and kept jailing demonstrators until the protests faded out.

    But this was not the last big round of protests. That was in “Bloody November,” 2019. Protests broke out in one city over sharp price increases imposed by the government, and rapidly  spread to others. Acting quickly, the regime block internet service, and then ruthlessly suppressed protests with machine gun fire, including from helicopters. The US State Department estimated that 1000 Iranians were killed, while Reuters put the number at 1500.

    Sporadic, small protests lingered on until the following July. With deterrence in mind, the regime has tried a number of the protesters on capital charges, including a well known member of the national wrestling team who was hanged last year.

    The Iranian regime is second in the world when it comes to executions, and uses the threat to stifle dissent. Last month the BBC reported on the cases of Zahran Saddiq, 31, and Elhan Choubdar, 24. The two women were convicted of “corruption on earth” and more specifically, human trafficking. They had advised young gay people on how to escape to other countries. The BBC story can be found under the title:

    “Iran sentences two LGBT activists to death.”

    BBC, September 5, 2022.

    Ms. Seddiq and Ms. Choubdar are appealing their sentences.

  60. 60.

    Barry

    @Andrya: ”  And if my original idea was correct, how are the Iranians able to help?  Aren’t they also sanctioned re: state of the art military electronics?”

     

    Probably mass production.  Russia is likely trying to source the materials and produce weapons under sanctions.  Iran has been doing this for decades.

  61. 61.

    Geminid

    @patrick II: It’s possible to explain Iran’s aid to Russia by Trump’s abrogation of the JCPOA. That action certainly was not justified, and put the region at greater risk.

    The US and the other JCPOA parties had explicitely made the JCPOA seperate from other questions such as Iran’s conventional weapons programs, its military activities in neighboring countries,or its internal repression. The idea might be expressed as,”Well, they may be assholes but this way they’ll be assholes without nuclear weapons.”

    This summer, even as the talks to revive the JCPOA seemed to reach agreement, US forces in Iraq and Iranian proxies there traded small but violent attacks, and Iranian naval elements seized two unmanned surface vessels the US had patrolling Persian Gulf waters (they were retuned minus cameras). The US maintained that these incidents would not stand in the way of a renewed JCPOA.

    Now the US has responded to Iran’s arms sales to Russia by saying the agreement is off the table for now. Talks had already stalled some weeks ago, with the US and Iran blaming one another for roadblocks.

    What might have happened had Trump not walked away from this agreement is an interesting counterfactual. Its possible that a less hardline candidate than Raisi would have been allowed to run for President, and higher authorities would have let the government pursue a less provocative foreign policy.

    On the other hand, they might have just plowed the extra $200-250 billion a year in oil revenues into producing more drones and missiles, financing more armed proxies in neighboring countries, possibly while keeping a covert nuclear weapons effort going at undeclared facilities.

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    @Barry: Iran is a country with 85 million people and a large cohort of capable engineers and scientists. They have invested a lot of resources in weapons development and production. Iranians have been working around sanctions for some time now, and likely have developed the capacity to produce the electronic components required for modern weapons. That would be made easier by their ability to copy western-made components.

  65. 65.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @way2blue: from the article

    „I fought them,“ he says, „because I knew that as soon as you submit to their will, you become their slave. But if you strike back, then you might even earn their trust.“

    Puts that mass shooting done by those Muslim conscripts in a new context.

    My father was opining the other day that Putin’s behavior lately reminds him a lot of Hitler’s desire to destroy Germany at the end of WW2 because Germany was unworthy of Hitler’s ambitions.  I could see that in a system were cruelty for cruelty’s sake is the point.

  66. 66.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Andrya: Aren’t they also sanctioned re: state of the art military electronics?

    I gather these drones are basically oversized RC planes like hobbyist use. How hard is it to buy a bunch of GPS systems and auto pilots from China (who can’t get enough Iranian oil) and slap it all in the equivalent of a Piper Cub?

    It’s like the Iranians using unguided rockets to counter the Israelis in Lebanon. Rockets are cheep so some get threw by sheer volume.

  67. 67.

    Geminid

    @jonas: Israel is unlikely to use nuclear weapon in South Lebanon. For one thing it’s too close, and for another, they seem to be reserving nuclear weapons for the most extreme, existential threats.

    Israel may have come close on the second day of the “Yom Kippur” war in October, 1973. Defense Minister Dayan was shaken by Syrian advances through the Golan Heights, and proposed using a nuclear bomb to deter further advances (Israel is reported to have possessed around ten bombs at the time). Prime Minister Meir was made of sterner stuff and ruled that measure out, at least for the moment. Then the IDF’s costly but successful counterattacks ended the threat and units advanced most of the way to Damascus before a ceasefire was agreed to.

    If a shooting war with Hezbollah breaks out, the IDF apparently intends invading South Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah assets including rockets. To that end, it has conducted training exercises on mountainous terrain in Cyprus that is similar to that of south Lebanon. This would be a violent but limited operation; the IDF now knows better than to stay in Lebanon for long.

    Their Air Force would start the battle by bombing Hezbollah’s rocket stores. Israel refrains from this now because the rockets are stored in populated areas, but once Hezbollah started firing the prospect of civilian casualties would not deter the Israelis. And Hezbollah might allow villagers to evacuate..

  69. 69.

    Andrya

    @Ruckus:   Very insightful, thank you.  For anyone interested in pursuing this further, I would highly recommend YouTube/Perun “How Corruption Destroys Armies”.  As a retired worker for a defense contractor, it totally reconciled me to the (often maddening) paperwork associated with every work related expense.  (On an employer-paid business trip, if I had a single glass of wine with dinner, I had to ask the waitperson for a separate bill for the wine, as the government would not pay for drunken sin….)   Perun made me realize that, even though annoying and often ridiculous, this paperwork is a critical defense against corruption.

  70. 70.

    Andrya

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:   You answered my main question precisely.  The stuff that should be sanctioned most likely comes from China, which is not sanctioned.  One wonders if the Chinese government (which has no concern whatsoever for justice or human rights) is making a short sighted decision here:  will it really pay off to link their regime to the putin regime?  Time will tell.

  72. 72.

    charon

    @charon:

    Or maybe a bluff?

    https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1582044513274822656

    Let me try to explain what’s wrong with the new wave of deployment of Russian troops in Belarus and why the threat of a new attack on Kyiv from the north is a bluff.

    https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1582044592232202249

    And last but not least. The Belarusian-Ukrainian border is almost entirely covered by the impassable Polesie marshes, the largest wetlands in Europe. The few sections along the roads where the Russians attacked in February have been turned by Ukrainians into the Maginot Line. 15/

  73. 73.

    Geminid

    From today’s Kyiv Post: 

         “Tehran has deployed dozens of military instructors to the Kremlin-occupied Crimean Peninsula and Kherson region to help the Russian Army launch kamikaze drone strikes against Ukrainian targets, Ukrainian news platforms said on October 18.

    One source for this report is UNIAN. Some of the Iranian are reported working at the Kirov airbase near Cape Takhemut, Crimea. At least 20 are deployed in the Kherson region.

    The Iranian “instructors” near Kherson are certainly in the line of fire. The Ukrainians may make special efforts to hit them. They’ll want to go after the drone launchers anyway.

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