BlueGuitarist has proposed something that I think is interesting. I would like to try it – it could help, it can’t hurt, and this late in the game, even $2,500 could be a game changer for most of these state races. Even more than that, it could be “proof of concept” as we think about fundraising in 2024.
We may be able to help win midterm elections by supporting down-ballot Democratic candidates in Super Swing Districts. You can think of it as Reverse Coattails: down-ballot candidates bringing friends and neighbors to the polls win additional votes for the top of the ticket, between 1% and 2%, more than the difference in crucial elections. All politics is local, right?
What’s a Super Swing District?
1) A state house (or state senate) swing districts (either party could win) that overlaps
2) a US House swing district or another state senate (or state house) swing district
3) in a swing state
How do Super Swing Districts matter?
It may be that local races will bring out voters that might not have voted otherwise. In Super Swing Districts each voter casts multiple votes in different swing elections on the same ballot.
PA house district 142 overlaps PA Senate district 6 and US House district PA-01, 3 R-held swing districts.
So each voter there can cast 3 votes for Democrats to replace Republicans in the down-ballot elections.
– Mark Moffa in PA-H-142
– Ann Marie Mitchell in PA-H-06
– Ashlez Ehasz in PA-01
In solid Democratic districts or solid Republican districts, additional votes won’t affect the down-ballot seats, but getting out the vote matters for the statewide elections.
Why do Super Swing Districts matter?
In elections for the current PA State Senate, Democrats got more votes than Republicans, but only have 21 of 50 seats, because it isn’t enough to get more votes; the geographic distribution of votes matters.
Increasing Democratic turnout in Super Swing Districts in PA, for example, increases the chances of flipping the PA State House and PA State Senate, holding the US House, and gaining seats in the US Senate.
For inclusion in these thermometers, BlueGuitarist believes these 22 super swing district candidates have a good chance to win if they get additional support.
These 22 Democratic candidates are: pro-choice, pro-worker, pro-democracy, pro-environment. They are for LGBTQ equality, common-sense gun policies, fair elections, and responsive government.
Jeanne Casteen AZ-S-02
Cindy Hans AZ-S-13
Taylor Kerby AZ-S-16
Laura Terech AZ-H-04
Lorena Austin AZ-H-09
Dana Allmond AZ-H-17
Shea Backus NV-A-37
Christine Kelly NC-H-037
Marcia Morgan NC-S07
Rachel Baker OH-H-27
Erika White OH-H-42
Patricia Goetz OH-S-27
Eunic Ortiz FL-S-18
Raquel Pacheco FL-S-36
Mandy Steele PAH-033
Anna Thomas PAH-137
Mark Moffa PAH-142
Gwen Stoltz PAH-143
Melissa Cerrato PAH-151
Ann Marie Mitchell PAS-06
Mark Pinsley PAS-16
Jennifer Shukaitis PAS-40
1 non-binary candidate, 18 women, 3 men
1 Native American, 1 Asian-American, 2 Black, 3 Latina, 15 white candidates
3 local elected officials, district director for a state representative, local union president, 2 army officers, 2 lawyers, nurse, doctor, scientist, STEM professional, policy researcher, journalist, 3 teachers, principal, small business owner, union organizer, and youth activist
There’s not a lot of time before the election, so I think we need to raise everything we can for these candidates this week, and then we’ll move on.
If any of you wants to “adopt” a candidate or a set of candidates in a state that is near and dear to your heart and offer a match for them to get things started, just chime in.
Click below for information about specific candidates and the upstream races they could impact.