Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Anne Laurie is a fucking hero in so many ways. ~ Betty Cracker

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Consistently wrong since 2002

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

The willow is too close to the house.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

In my day, never was longer.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

If America since Jan 2025 hasn’t broken your heart, you haven’t loved her enough.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

You are here: Home / Political Fundraising / Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022 / All Politics is Local (Down-Ballot Races and Reverse Coattails)

All Politics is Local (Down-Ballot Races and Reverse Coattails)

by | 158 Comments

This post is in: ,

BlueGuitarist has proposed something that I think is interesting.  I would like to try it – it could help, it can’t hurt, and this late in the game, even $2,500 could be a game changer for most of these state races.  Even more than that, it could be “proof of concept” as we think about fundraising in 2024.

We may be able to help win midterm elections by supporting down-ballot Democratic candidates in Super Swing Districts.  You can think of it as Reverse Coattails: down-ballot candidates bringing friends and neighbors to the polls win additional votes for the top of the ticket, between 1% and 2%, more than the difference in crucial elections.  All politics is local, right?

You can find detailed information about candidates and races at this link.  (PDF)

What’s a Super Swing District?

1) A state house (or state senate) swing districts (either party could win) that overlaps

2) a US House swing district or another state senate (or state house) swing district

3) in a swing state 

How do Super Swing Districts matter?

It may be that local races will bring out voters that might not have voted otherwise. In Super Swing Districts each voter casts multiple votes in different swing elections on the same ballot.

FOR EXAMPLE

PA house district 142 overlaps PA Senate district 6 and US House district PA-01, 3 R-held swing districts.
So each voter there can cast 3 votes for Democrats to replace Republicans in the down-ballot elections.
– Mark Moffa in PA-H-142
– Ann Marie Mitchell in PA-H-06
– Ashlez Ehasz in PA-01

In solid Democratic districts or solid Republican districts, additional votes won’t affect the down-ballot seats, but getting out the vote matters for the statewide elections.

Why do Super Swing Districts matter?

In elections for the current PA State Senate, Democrats got more votes than Republicans, but only have 21 of 50 seats, because it isn’t enough to get more votes; the geographic distribution of votes matters.

Increasing Democratic turnout in Super Swing Districts in PA, for example, increases the chances of flipping the PA State House and PA State Senate, holding the US House, and gaining seats in the US Senate.

For inclusion in these thermometers, BlueGuitarist believes these 22 super swing district candidates have a good chance to win if they get additional support.

These 22 Democratic candidates are:  pro-choice, pro-worker, pro-democracy, pro-environment.  They are for LGBTQ equality, common-sense gun policies, fair elections, and responsive government.

Candidates

Jeanne Casteen AZ-S-02
Cindy Hans AZ-S-13
Taylor Kerby AZ-S-16
Laura Terech AZ-H-04
Lorena Austin AZ-H-09
Dana Allmond AZ-H-17

Shea Backus NV-A-37

Christine Kelly NC-H-037
Marcia Morgan NC-S07

Rachel Baker OH-H-27
Erika White OH-H-42
Patricia Goetz OH-S-27

Eunic Ortiz FL-S-18
Raquel Pacheco FL-S-36

Mandy Steele PAH-033
Anna Thomas PAH-137
Mark Moffa PAH-142
Gwen Stoltz PAH-143
Melissa Cerrato PAH-151
Ann Marie Mitchell PAS-06
Mark Pinsley PAS-16
Jennifer Shukaitis PAS-40

Candidate  Breakdown

1 non-binary candidate, 18 women, 3 men

1 Native American, 1 Asian-American, 2 Black, 3 Latina, 15 white candidates

3 local elected officials, district director for a state representative, local union president, 2 army officers, 2 lawyers, nurse,  doctor, scientist, STEM professional, policy researcher, journalist, 3 teachers, principal, small business owner, union organizer, and youth activist

There’s not a lot of time before the election, so I think we need to raise everything we can for these candidates this week, and then we’ll move on.  

If any of you wants to “adopt” a candidate or a set of candidates in a state that is near and dear to your heart and offer a match for them to get things started, just chime in.

Click below for information about specific candidates and the upstream races they could impact.

Super Swing District Candidates 2022   (PDF)

Reader Interactions

158Comments

  1. 1.

    Princess

    This is brilliant. I love it.

    I’ll also point to another organization that might interest some people. Sister District concentrates on state-level races and they match up people in Blue districts with swing districts at that level. Just for interest, here are their candidates this round:

    sisterdistrict.com/candidates/

  2. 2.

    Another Scott

    My credit card is screaming, but I don’t care. If politics were easy it wouldn’t matter.

    Donated.

    Thanks BlueGuitarist and WaterGirl.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  3. 3.

    H.E.Wolf

    Thank you to WaterGirl and BlueGuitarist for this newest fundraiser option!

    For those (like me) who are maxed-out on $ donations, these final few weeks before Nov. 8 are prime-time for other types of GOTV efforts also.

    Our local Democratic Party has online signups for phonebanking, textbanking, data entry, and canvassing. 3 of those 4 options would be feasible for out-of-state volunteers.

    Postcard writing is still going strong for at least another 2 weeks (3 weeks, if the destination is nearby). PostCard Patriots is ideal for extemporaneous writers, Postcards To Voters is ideal for writers who prefer to write a prepared message.

    And this is definitely the week when I’m going to install our “VOTE!” sign in the front yard. :-)

  5. 5.

    Cluttered Mind

    My wife is running for office for Maine state senate district 2 right now, trying to flip a seat currently held by a rich white Republican. She is running a clean election campaign (A thing Maine does to publicly fund candidates) so she can’t take financial contributions, but I’d appreciate people sending some kind thoughts and wishes her way!

    danielleformaine.com/ is her website, if anyone’s curious.

    I know people probably don’t have any idea who I am because I almost never comment, but I have been here since 2008 and have occasionally spoken up! Thanks for posting about state candidates!

  6. 6.

    sab

    @Mo Salad: I like this idea also, but as Emily’s list says “early money is lIke yeast” and my version that late money Is too late and will be useless or wasted.

    That’s why I thought all the work Watergirl did earlier for Four Corners and Fronteras was so great. Gave them money for organizers and such.

    This late in the year can they even book tv ads? Useful to pay down debts, but that is about it. Also too a campaign bankroll for going forward in the next election cycle if the candidate intends to have an electoral future however things turn out this time.

    But going forward looking at 2024 it is a great idea.

     

     

    But not to late for postcards! Undecideds haven’t voted yet. Uninformed haven’t decided yet. A little push can help.

  7. 7.

    Mousebumples

    Ohio also has the state Supreme Court election, which could be impacted. (didn’t see that on the spreadsheet, so a bonus point of consideration)

    I don’t have extra money to donate right now, but this seems like a good idea – and definitely what I was thinking about last week, for that Wisconsin House race I had tossed some cash at.

    Time for more postcards tonight!

  8. 8.

    Mousebumples

    @sab: I agree that Early Money Is Like Yeast, but I think some late money can help with GOTV.

    More printing costs for lit drops, gas money to drive people to the polls, etc. But I’m not on a campaign, so I’m just speculating.

  10. 10.

    sab

    @Mousebumples: Postcards! People may still be deciding. And in Ohio it has been like pulling teeth to find out who the other two candidates are besides Jennifer Brunner. Ohio Supreme Court is crucial going forward.

    ETA Brunner, Zayas and Jamison. All first rate candidates, with solid legal backgrounds and good temperments.

  11. 11.

    WaterGirl

    @sab:

    This late in the year can they even book tv ads?

    At the state level, I doubt if TV ads is even a thing.  They certainly aren’t around here.

    But boy oh boy, every single time I want to watch something on YouTube I get an ad for the woman who is running for the statehouse here, and you can buy those ads any time.

    We did everything we could early, but at some point you have to shift gears, and with the House at stake, and even the Senate, it makes sense (to me) to work at the margins at this point.

    As much as I love Beto, I am not fundraising for him because he has tons of money.  But for state house or state senate races, $2,500 could mean being able to run online ads, print up literature for door hangers, or maybe means being able to print up reminders people’s voting locations, etc.

    So I believe this could make a difference.  And I like it as proof of concept for 2024.  When the barbarians are at the gate, plugging every hole makes sense to me.

  12. 12.

    sab

    @WaterGirl: Thanks. I see your point. I still feel burned about over contributing to Kerry in 2004, but that was a generation ago and campaign dynamics have changed.

    ETA I am not on YouTube, but I do see Emilia Sykes’ lovely smile quite a lot on line, so your point is very valid.

  13. 13.

    WaterGirl

    @Mousebumples:

    Ohio also has the state Supreme Court election

    Those 3 races Ohio Supreme Court races are on our Election Protection thermometer!

    Protecting Elections in Key States

    I said we would be doing A la carte fundraising as we got closer to the election.  This is part of that.

    Crist has more of a chance in FL than we expected, so we have a thermometer for him.

    All of the targeted fundraising thermometers are available in the sidebar at all times.

    Serious worries about Cortez-Masto, so we did flash fundraising for her.

    We have several US House races in the Purple thermometer.

    And now we have these local races that can help with turnout for all the races, and could potentially turn a red statehouse blue, like in PA.  That would be a big deal for preserving rights and also for decisions about what and whether to prosecute.

  15. 15.

    Joy in FL

    I tried to donate $22, and my apple card put through 15 one dollar charges, then declined 2 charges (or maybe the same charge twice), then it put through a charge for $1.13. That was 12 minutes ago and it has been quiet since. I don’t have time to call the card company right now to see what is going on. But I just wanted to note this little weirdness.   I don’t know if my card is screaming or resisting, like @Another Scott said in comment #2.  But it is not doing its job; that’s for sure. I just checked the Act Blue receipt page, and that shows every candidate getting my measly $1 contribution.

    Also this is a great idea : )

  20. 20.

    WaterGirl

    @Old School: I actually googled for dumbfuckistan, which is part of what we are fighting, and this is the map that came up.

    But I’m not married to it, and I don’t want to distract from the fundraising, so I removed it just now.

  21. 21.

    Mousebumples

    @WaterGirl: Yup! Mostly just meant that those were other Upballot races that could be impacted with this strategy in Ohio, since I believe judicial races now have party affiliation in Ohio.

  25. 25.

    Almost Retired

    Very cool!  I’m in!  I look forward to a barrage of follow-up texts from all of these candidates (Adrian Fontes’ Mom sent me a postcard!)

  27. 27.

    C Stars

    I’m in for $50 too…hope it helps!

     

    Now to block all the Dem fundraising texts I’ll get….

  28. 28.

    Paul W.

    I’ll do the 110 for $5 each, if we can get a match later I’ll do the same again as this is a really great idea and repopulating swing states, and state houses in general, with Dems is a top priority for us.

  29. 29.

    BlueGuitarist

    Thanks so much for posting this WaterGirl and to everyone here,

    love all y’all

    in for 330, but only 90 has been processed

    don’t know what’s up with that…

  31. 31.

    MazeDancer

    Good idea!

    Just had my upstate NY Assembly person stop by canvassing. With her Chief of Staff, who lives in my teeny village, so I know him.

    She has served many terms. Does a great job. Got slight redistricting, and is concerned about re-election because the “Republicans are turning out”. Ugh.

    Yes, to PostCards!

    Emilia Sykes in OH, Susan Wild in PA, and Wiley Nickel in NC give you some super effect with the rub-off on Senate races.

    Get addresses: PostCardPatriots.com

    Or just click on my nym.

  32. 32.

    BlueGuitarist

    @sab:

    appreciate your comment, as usual.

    i don’t know any of the candidates but i will reach out to them and ask about how they will use funds raised now; and will let you all know.

    and yes, postcards!

  33. 33.

    Almost Retired

    I’m spending the morning writing postcards.  My wife noted that my handwriting is so bad, I should only be sending cards to pharmacists.  I ignored her, and will continue sending handwritten notes that will inspire any voters who can decipher them…..

  34. 34.

    Mousebumples

    @BlueGuitarist:

    Ben Wikler (@benwikler) tweeted at 11:35 AM on Tue, Oct 18, 2022:

    FINAL 3 WEEKS: Wisconsin’s polls are tighter than tight. We’re sprinting into Get Out the Vote mode—equipping our MASSIVE field operation for the last push. We’ve set a goal to raise $11,245 for supplies. Low glitz, high impact. Read on, then chip in: t.co/4w6ZPD4w1k

    Link

    Just sent this thread to WaterGirl but I think that well run campaigns will have GOTV expenses, as Chair Wikler details re: Wisconsin. Can’t say that your list of candidates will have the same approach as Wisconsin, but here’s hoping!

    (though hand warmers may be less essential in FL or AZ)

  36. 36.

    Mousebumples

    @MazeDancer: yes and no. Look at Gideon in Maine in 2020 or McGrath in KY. Both had tons of money unspent after election day.

    But I think local, small races may be more likely to have a wishlist to meet, especially with 3 weeks to go.

  37. 37.

    BlueGuitarist

    @MazeDancer:

    thanks for all your work on postcards!

    These down-ballot candidates include folks running in districts that overlap Emilia Sykes, Susan Wild, and Wiley Nickel

    not by coincidence!

    Ohio: in Emilia Sykes district: Dr. Patricia Goetz’s is running for state senate against the author of the Ohio abortion ban. Down-ballot from her – are 2 state house candidates who could win: Summit County Council member Rita Darrow for OH-H-31 and firefighter/paramedic Matt Shaughnessy for OH-H-32 against a reported arsonist, 1st term R.

    NC: in Wiley Nickel’s district: Christine Kelly is running for NC House, the incumbent brought Marsha Blackburn to campaign for her. Also overlapping  that NC State House district, Sydney Batch, a vulnerable D incumbent.

    PA: in Susan Wild’s district – Anna Thomas is running against an election denying R incumbent, in PAH-137, redistricted from a seat Biden lost by 10 to a seat Biden carried narrowly.

    Also, Mark Pinsley running for PA Senate in a district half overlapping Susan WIld’s. He almost won 4 years ago, the district got made more Republican, and the long term incumbent lost the primary to an extremist funded mostly by a billionaire who wants to defund public schools. The Republican’s other major supporter was one of the fake Trump electors in PA.

    That’s the tipping point seat for PA Senate. Pinsley is the elected county controller in Lehigh County and has saved the public millions of dollars by being much better at his job than the Republican incumbent he beat.

  38. 38.

    FelonyGovt

    @Almost Retired: I just agreed to my Huddle group’s final postcard campaign, for Christy Smith to knock out the execrable Mike Garcia in CA-27. My husband agreed to pick up the cards for me since I won’t be able to.

  39. 39.

    Mike E

    Cherie Beasley and Ted Bundy Budd are in a statistical dead heat in the NC senate race, so if Roementum is real she can finish strong and take this seat… I plan on early voting on Thursday, stay tuned!

  40. 40.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Mousebumples:

    i expect they will focus on GOTV which will benefit candidates up ballot, will see what i can find out.

    in 2020 i asked some state house candidates about the use of late money, and a GA House candidate said, “line warming” – giving food and water to people waiting in line to vote – no longer legal

  41. 41.

    Almost Retired

    @FelonyGovt:  I feel pretty good about Christy Smith’s chances.  I find it personally offensive that there is a Republican member of Congress from Los Angeles County (although, to be fair, the Antelope Valley is spiritually Kern County).  And Garcia is a particularly vile breed of Republican as well.  But I think he’s toast.

  42. 42.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Princess:

    Thanks!

    2 of the candidates on this list are also endorsed by Sister District:

    AZ-H-09 youth activist Lorena Austin who is running against a woman who is such an extreme anti-Semite that someone yanked her from the 2020 Republican National Convention speakers list at the last minute

    PAH-151 Melissa Cerrato is running in a Democratic district against a Republican incumbent who threatened to sue her if she kept talking about (telling the truth about) his abortion record. Planned Parenthood had previously endorsed him but endorsed Melissa this year.

    As of the end of September, the first 200 days of her campaign, she had knocked on 5,000 doors; and volunteers for her campaign on 33k more.

  43. 43.

    WaterGirl

    Ben Wikler at WisDems is trying to raise about $12,000 for last minute supplies to Get Out the Vote.

    This gives us a bit of a window into some of the things campaigns can do with last-minute donations we are trying to raise for these down-ballot candidates.

    WisDems are making up packets to distribute – he calls it Packetland – and need to buy supplies like clipboards, markers, boxes, paperclips, tons of paper, hanging folders (for sorting), and hand warmers.   They are aiming for $4,750 for that kind of thing.

    Once “Packetland” is done and boxes are ready, they go to staging locations.

    Staging locations are field offices—sometimes permanent county party or WisDems offices, often temporary offices, homes, or coffee shops—that we’ll use to launch canvasses. The key is having many of them, close to the voters we want to talk to.

    They say they need $6,495 for that.

    They will have organizers and volunteers working from hundreds of staging locations across the state, in rural, suburban, and urban areas alike. Each requires access to the internet and its own supplies: printers, banker boxes, and, of course, boxes of packets.

    For some staging locations, they are chipping in for utilities. In others, we’re providing internet hotspots to make up for flaky wifi. In county party offices, we help cover the rest. Needs vary—but the goal is the same: make these locations perfect places to organize volunteers.

    If you want to donate to that effort, here’s our WisDems thermometer.

  44. 44.

    Leslie

    This is a great idea for last-minute YouTube ads and GOTV efforts. Payday’s tomorrow, so I’ll check back then.

  45. 45.

    Mike E

    @BlueGuitarist: thanks for mentioning the NC candidates! I’m not sanguine about Nickel and Batch posturing as centrist and pro-gun but the MAGAt push has been furious with Nickel especially getting hammered for being a defense attorney… let’s do what we can to push them over the finish line.

  46. 46.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Another Scott:

    Thanks so much Scott!

    iirc you’ve previously mentioned Bobby Big Wheel, the GiveSmart guy –

    iirc he’s working with The States Project, which also endorsed  9 of the 14 PA and AZ candidates here.

  51. 51.

    MazeDancer

    @BlueGuitarist: Thanks for info. Will use.

    @Mike E: Got yer Wiley Nickel addresses for PostCards right here: PostCardPatriots.com (or click on my nym)

     

    PostCards have been proven to work, people.

    Have had all kinds of requests, from 5 to 250 names. What ever you can do, do it.

  52. 52.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Cluttered Mind:

    Sending encouragement for your wife’s campaign!

    Looks like you’re in northern Maine in a state Senate district that’s in the competitive US House seat, Jared Golden’s, ME-2.

    Good luck, and comment more; at least let us know about some memorable moment in the campaign and later, the result.

  54. 54.

    BlueGuitarist

    Thanks all.

    going to contact campaigns re sab’s question then get back to the comments here.

  55. 55.

    lowtechcyclist

    Since this is an open thread, this is more up rail maven Carlo Graziani’s alley, but I found it interesting:

    The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons, reports Railway Supply citing sprotyv.info. The so-called innovative wagons, which can carry 8 tons more than conventional ones, were left without spare parts after sanctions hit Russia over the invasion of Ukraine and foreign manufacturers began to leave the Russian market.

    I guess they’re not bearing up well over there.

  56. 56.

    sab

    Right now I have the postcard with the Democratic slate clipped to my fridge. Only arrived yesterday. Every candidate including judges. Taking it off to the polls with us.

    So this late money does help,

  59. 59.

    sab

    @sab: Also too in Ohio what with the redistricting mess we didn’t even know what the districts were into well into summer. So early organized candidates were left in limbo, particularly in the state districts.: State House. State Senate. State School Board (active now trying to knock out trans kids rights.)

  61. 61.

    UncleEbeneezer

    Great idea.  I haven’t found any confirmed research or studies, but I know that the hosts of SwingLeft’s How We Win podcast (both long-time organizers) have often said that UP-ballot voting is much more reliable than down-ballot voting, because the people who will care about the more local candidates are less likely to ticket-split (ie- they more likely to vote Dem bottom to top whereas lots of voters might vote for Biden but then vote for Republicans down-ballot).

  62. 62.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Almost Retired: In case you missed it in another thread, according to the campaign staff on Sunday (I helped canvass in CA-27), internal polling was currently at Smith +2.  We actually had unusually good results with about 75% of people being home and willing to chat, almost all were either leaning or strongly supporting Smith.  Granted this is a list of registered Dems, but still pretty encouraging.

  64. 64.

    Almost Retired

    @UncleEbeneezer:  I did miss that, and that’s good to know.  It’s encouraging that she is up by 2%, but discouraging that it’s even a race in LA County in 2022 with such an awful Republican candidate.  I feel like my happy blue bubble is a little bit deflated.

  67. 67.

    Dangerman

    For California Jackals (well, all interested, but this is a fairly big story in CA, and f’ing huge in Central CA), there are verdicts in the Kristin Smart case.

    Can’t really convey what this means for Central Coasters. Driven by billboards hundreds, if not into 4 figures, of times.

    Wow.

    ETA: Verdicts (there are two juries) will be read at 130p.

  68. 68.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Almost Retired: Yeah, but CA-27 is a fairly split district for LA County.  When we talk about LA County I don’t think many of us think of Palmdale.  The fact that the last couple elections there have been razor-thin margins shows it was always gonna be a tight race.

  70. 70.

    JAFD

    Life chaotic. Packing for temporary move (involuntary vacation ??? ). Leaky bottle yesterday, had to repack couple of boxes. Today found smartphone battery needs replacing. But have put a hundred into the fund. Good luck !

  71. 71.

    Mo Salad

    @dnfree: ​
     Tell him it’s Blue Man Group improv classes and then hand him a bag of marshmallows for him to throw from about 10 yards away because you need to practice catching them in your mouth.

  73. 73.

    JWR

    @lowtechcyclist:

    The so-called innovative wagons, which can carry 8 tons more than conventional ones, were left without spare parts after sanctions hit Russia over the invasion of Ukraine and foreign manufacturers began to leave the Russian market.

    But, but, but sanctions haven’t done a damn bit of good! Or so I’m told by my leftier-than-thou betters.

  75. 75.

    Almost Retired

    @Dangerman:  I’ve been following this closely.  My youngest son just graduated from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, and the case was well-covered up there (and here as well….I live in the South Bay where the accused is from).

  76. 76.

    lowtechcyclist

    @JWR:

    But, but, but sanctions haven’t done a damn bit of good! Or so I’m told by my leftier-than-thou betters.

    I can’t bear those people anymore.

  77. 77.

    HinTN

    @sab: The last tranche of my 100 postcards went out this morning. Thanks to MazeDancer for the addresses in VA, PA and NC.

  78. 78.

    Dangerman

    @Almost Retired: This covers the State. Accused is from South Bay. Her Family is SJV near SF.

    If I could, I’d go to Kristin’s Memorial at Dinosaur Caves (Pismo) in purple … where’s my Prince shirt, dammit?

  84. 84.

    JPL

    Son is early voting for Senator Warnock and he said the line is long at the Alpharetta Library.   Not sure what that means though because even though it’s a Surburban area, the right has been spending lots of time there.  Trying to win back the vote they lost last time.

  87. 87.

    MazeDancer

    @JPL: Aren’t GOP all determined to vote on Election Day because TFG says so?

    Which would certainly be a reason to vote early. No matter how long it takes, would have to be less painful than standing in line with a bunch of Trumpsters.

  89. 89.

    Yutsano

    @JPL: ​Early voting generally favours Democrats. The sooner Warnock can cross off voters who have already cast their ballots the better his team can focus on getting out those who haven’t voted yet. Or even some newer voters in a canvass.

  90. 90.

    JPL

    @MazeDancer: Thursday at seven, I plan to be in line.  My other son and his wife vote at a Senior Center that most don’t realize is open to all.  It’s still within the county so tempting to drive there.  They actually walk from their neighborhood.

  93. 93.

    Leslie

    @UncleEbeneezer: Yeah, the AV is definitely a purple district. Lots of likely Democratic voters, if they vote, but also lots of stereotypical GOP voters. Turnout is, of course, crucial.

  94. 94.

    Eunic Ortiz

    @sab: hey there! I came across this post and ELATED to see the outpouring of support. THANK YOU!

    ”Early Money Rises Like Yeast” (Emily’s) List is accurate. And, all money – early or late- is put to good use. Let me tell you my story:

    I got into this race in 2021. I’m running for the newly drawn Florida State Senate, District 18. A seat that has always been Republican, and in this past redistricting phase the seat moved 6 points in our favor. In Pinellas County where I’m from and where I’m running, we know a hyper majority of folks agree we need a solution to our housing crisis, better paying jobs, and an actual plan for our environment. We just need leadership bold enough to actually act. And to do that, we need every bit of support. That includes money on the first day and the last day.

    Our campaign has been entirely supported by grassroots donations. We’re proud of that fact. And it’s going to take grassroots donations over the course of the next 2 1/2 weeks to get us across that finish line. We know we can flip this seat BLUE, and we know how we need to move forward to talk to as many voters as possible.

    They’re absolutely people who run for office and mispend their funds. There is no question about that. But I can only speak for myself, and every dollar that is raised and sent to our campaign is not only appreciated, but put to the most quality of use to ensure we’re telling as many voters as possible why we are the absolute best campaign to vote for, and to win this November to represent Pinellas County.

    Every dollar our campaign uses will go towards expanding our programs to reach more voters we haven’t reached yet and who haven’t voted. There is absolutely still time but that window is closing fast.

    We have three weeks to tell every voter in this country why it is so important to turn out on November 8. We have three weeks to make sure we are doing everything in our power to get out the vote and wake up on November 9 knowing we did everything in our power. We have three weeks to make the difference for our children and our children’s children. Our future depends on it.

    I appreciate everyone, commenting, donating, and engaging with this article. It warms my heart to see it from the campaign trail as I’m currently knocking on doors to get out the vote here in Pinellas County. Thank you thank you thank you! – Eunic Ortiz

  95. 95.

    JPL

    Son is close to the doors after a hour and a half and they just locked the doors and won’t let anyone else in.

  96. 96.

    WaterGirl

    I can’t find a link for the Val Demings / Ted Cruz Rubio debate tonight.  Not on youtube or c-span, as far as I can tell.  Anyone have a link?

  100. 100.

    WaterGirl

    @Eunic Ortiz: Thanks for stopping by to comment!

    The first comment has to be manually approved, but now that I have done that any comment you make will automatically show up for everyone.

    I have been wondering if the down-ballot campaigns AND the top-level candidates are all stressing the need to vote – not just for that specific candidate, but voting Democrat up and own the ticket.

    I wonder if you are in a position to speak to that for what you are seeing locally?

  105. 105.

    Jackie

    TFG’s sensitive feefees are hurt again.

    ”Former President Trump’s Monday assault against Joe O’Dea, the GOP’s Senate nominee in Colorado, is angering Republicans while leaving them wondering if he cares about the party winning back the majority in the upper chamber.”

    “In a post on his social media site, Trump labeled O’Dea a “RINO,” or “Republican in name only,” and said that “MAGA doesn’t Vote for stupid people with big mouths.”

    The barb came in response to O’Dea saying that he would not support the former president if he ran again in 2024 and that he would actively campaign against him.”

    thehill.com/homenews/senate/3694601-trump-attack-leaves-gop-wondering-if-he-cares-about-senate-major…

  109. 109.

    Immanentize

    News: Durham loses his second trial completely. Not Guilty on all counts for Danchenko.

    Retire the moustache!

  110. 110.

    WaterGirl

    @Jackie:

    …angering Republicans while leaving them wondering if he cares about the party

    Is there anyone who is wondering about that?  He cares about himself above all else.  Just look at the GA runoff.

  114. 114.

    Immanentize

    @WaterGirl: me too. He lost his cool when his own witnesses started explaining why Danchenko was not guilty. Very bad, thin skinned, unprofessional, unprepared dude.

  115. 115.

    Fair Economist

    I’m in on this local focus. The mismatch between what we spend on state legislative and marquee races is just mindblowing. There were single 2020 longshot Senate races that have totally outspent the entire DLCC budget for this cycle (35 million so far). I’m sending my contributions almost entire to statehouse campaigns this cycle and for the indefinite future.

  117. 117.

    CaseyL

    I don’t know if this is an interesting/important indicator, but I went to my Post Office just now to get postcard stamps and they are completely out.  I put my name on a list to be called when they get more in.

    I may stop by another post office later to see if I can get postcard stamps there.  If they’re out, too… well, I blame H. E. Wolf, because she lives in my area and I know she is a Postcard Queen 😊

    (We ran into each other – I think it was in 2020? Possibly 2018? – both of us at a cute vintage shop at the same time to buy old postcards and then again at the post office to get stamps.)

    Leave a few for the rest of us, willya, H. E.?

  122. 122.

    Jackie

    @WaterGirl: McConnell must be having deja vu.

    We Democrats understand TFG much better than the Repugs do. EVERYONE knew the moment O’Dea’s quote was printed, how TFG would react.

  126. 126.

    MazeDancer

    @CaseyL: The P.O. running out of PostCard stamps happened in 2018 and 2020. They also run of the pre-stamped PostCards.

    2018 and 2020 worked out, so let’s home it’s a hat trick year.

    (You can use regular stamps. Expensive. But legal.)

  129. 129.

    CaseyL

    @WaterGirl: No, I’m good – actually thought of that, on my way home.  The issue, more than anything else, is size.  Regular stamps tend to be a good bit larger than postcard stamps, and can be harder to fit to the template without obscuring the address.

    (That’s why I didn’t get the stamps from the printer/dispenser.  Those things print the stamps off one by one, complete with enormous QR code, so the stamp is like three times as big as it needs to be.)

  137. 137.

    Scout211

    O/T and of local interest. Paul Flores was found guilty of the murder of Kristin Smart. The verdict was read this afternoon. She went missing as a Freshman at CalPoly.

    She went to the same high school as my daughters and this case has been going on for over 2 decades.

    Paul Flores has been found guilty of first-degree murder in the death of missing California college student Kristin Smart 25 years ago. Flores’ father Ruben was found not guilty of being an accessory after the fact for allegedly helping to conceal the crime.

    The conflicting verdicts were read moments apart in the same courtroom.

    Smart disappeared from California Polytechnic State University over Memorial Day weekend in 1996. Her remains were never found.

  139. 139.

    CaseyL

    OK, y’all: I got my stamps.  I went to Office Depot,  because I needed some other stuff from there, and they had stamps.  Just 1st class, but small enough to do just fine on postcards.

  140. 140.

    Old School

    Alexandria, VirginiaCNN — 
    Igor Danchenko, the primary source for the infamous Trump-Russia dossier, was acquitted Tuesday of four counts of lying to the FBI in an embarrassing defeat for special counsel John Durham.
    Durham has taken two cases to trial, and both have ended in acquittals. After more than three years looking for misconduct in the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe, Durham has only secured one conviction: the guilty plea of a low-level FBI lawyer, who got probation.

  141. 141.

    Almost Retired

    @Scout211:   So happy to hear this.  I noted up thread that my youngest son went to school in San Luis Obispo, and fucking Flores is from the South Bay (San Pedro, I think).  She was from Stockton, IIRC, right?

  143. 143.

    prostratedragon

    @Mousebumples:  Oooo. Was wondering whether any runoffs were possible — though it’s an indictment of our times that Sen. Warnock could be  forced into one by a candidate like Walker.

  144. 144.

    JPL

    @prostratedragon: In good news, bad news Kemp is over 50 percent in several polls.   Unless that changes, the governor’s race won’t have a runoff.

    Now in good news, I can’t imagine folks turning out to vote for Walker again.   They already had to hold their nose once.

  145. 145.

    Geminid

    @prostratedragon: Georgia is one of the Libertarian Party’s stronger states. They’re still unlikely to get more than 2%, but they can affect the close races.

    In 2020, the Libertarian in the Perdue/Ossoff race got 185,000 votes and helped keep Perdue below 50%, forcing a runoff. Usually in Georgia runoffs, the Democratic vote drops more than the Republican, but that time it was the reverse and Ossoff won on January 5th.

  146. 146.

    Scout211

    @Almost Retired: Yes, Stockton. Lincoln High School.

    ETA: the family moved from Stockton after she went missing.

    My older daughter and her (now) husband both went to Cal Poly, too.

    ETA 2:  I missed your comment upthread.

  148. 148.

    H.E.Wolf

    @CaseyL: ​”I don’t know if this is an interesting/important indicator, but I went to my Post Office just now to get postcard stamps and they are completely out. I put my name on a list to be called when they get more in.”

    @CaseyL: “OK, y’all: I got my stamps. I went to Office Depot, because I needed some other stuff from there, and they had stamps. Just 1st class, but small enough to do just fine on postcards.”​
     
    1st class stamps for a 1st-class person! 😊

    This time around, I’m not the one buying up all the local postcard stamps (as we did, between us, at the same P.O. in early 2020 when we were prepping for the Jackal Postcard Event).

    …I stocked up on vintage stamps on Etsy, instead! Bought a bunch of Black Heritage stamps for the GA election, in honor of Stacey Abrams and Raphael Warnock.

  149. 149.

    H.E.Wolf

    @MazeDancer: ​”@CaseyL: The P.O. running out of PostCard stamps happened in 2018 and 2020. They also run of the pre-stamped PostCards.
    2018 and 2020 worked out, so let’s home it’s a hat trick year.”

    I hope it’s A Sign… much like the nationwide shortage of pink yarn in early 2017. :)

  151. 151.

    la caterina

    In for $250- and I’m expecting my postcards to be delivered Thursday.  Going to use up the forever stamps I bought when we were worried about the USPS going under. Yay! I’ll be sending them out over the weekend! So excited.

  152. 152.

    TEL

    FYI – I just got a security fraud alert because my transaction didn’t go through as a single $25 transaction, but instead as 22 separate transactions for $1.xx. I’ve told them that it’s fine so they’ve released the hold, but something about this act blue contribution didn’t work correctly for me. I’ve done a lot of other act blue contributions for multiple candidates for balloon juice, and this is the first time it’s happened.

  153. 153.

    WaterGirl

    @TEL: I don’t know why it’s treating that like 22 separate transaction, but there just aren’t settings that control that.

    On the plus side, when I poked around to confirm that there wasn’t some setting for that, I found this:

    By default, donor emails and phone numbers are shared with the recipient(s) on your form. To change this setting for your form and give donors the choice as to whether or not they wish to share their contact information with the recipient(s), select Yes.

    I have now set this thermometer so your info will NOT be shared with donors.

    Now I will go change it for our other thermometers.

  155. 155.

    2liberal

    @sab:  ETA Brunner, Zayas and Jamison. All first rate candidates, with solid legal backgrounds and good temperments.

     

    I wrote up about 50 postcards for the Ohio Judges over the past few days.

  158. 158.

    sab

    @sab: Dead thread now, but BlueGuitarist heard back from campaigns. Lots they can do with that late money: Postcards, late updated flyers, targeted internet ads… responding to last minute attacks…( BlueGuitarist posted a few threads ahead, tomorrow.)

    So I stand corrected, and happy to be corrected.

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