Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

How stupid are these people?

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

75% of people clapping liked the show!

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

You are here: Home / Elections / 2022 Elections / Tuesday Morning Open Thread: To the Polls!

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: To the Polls!

by | 112 Comments

This post is in: , , , ,


Another bellwether election:

Reader Interactions

112Comments

  4. 4.

    oldster

    Okay, so as of today, which are the nationwide races that can do the most good with my money?

    My goal is to keep the House or the Senate or both in Democratic hands.

    I have a few hundred dollars to spend.

    So, where do I send it, to maximize winning seats?

  7. 7.

    Jerzy Russian

    Our California ballots arrived in the mail recently.   My Congress Critter, State Assembly Critter, etc. are all Democrats, so no problem there.  Many of the ballot propositions are bewildering to me.  I will wait on those a bit.  Usually it comes to a point when someone like Bill Kristol says “vote yes on X”, after which I mark the “no” bubble.

  8. 8.

    MazeDancer

    Great day to write PostCards!

    Emilia Sykes in OH, WileyNickel in NC,, Susan Wild in PA.  Which will help give Nancy Pelosi the House she deserves.

    Plus, getting people to the polls in those states helps the Senate.

    Get addresses: PoStCardPatriots.com. Or just click on my nym.

  9. 9.

    MattF

    I mailed in my ballot last week. Here in Maryland, I was emailed a link to PDFs for the ballot, oath, envelope, voting locations- the main obstacles were double-sided printing for the ballot (six double-sided pages) and persuading the software that the envelope was indeed the right size. Had the pleasure of voting for Jamie Raskin.

  13. 13.

    geg6

    Got my mail-in ballot a couple of weeks ago, mailed it 10 days ago and it has been received.  All Dems, all the way down.

  15. 15.

    John S.

    It’s simply amazing the slate of unqualified candidates the GOP have foisted upon the country this election cycle.

    I suppose it’s the inevitable consequence of the fat orange manbaby, but what a race to the bottom it has turned out to be.

  17. 17.

    Kay

    I always early vote. My youngest voted absentee ( he’s in MI but he’s an OH resident) and my husband always votes in person on election day . He does contract legal work for the state with Bds of Elections so he likes to go talk to the poll workers.

    I feel like there will be one “upset” win for D’s (NC or OH) perhaps to offset a loss in one of the more high profile races. I feel like Ryan has run just a perfect campaign so it should be him but OTOH DeWine is 10 points ahead of Whaley for gov so DeWine could drag the loathesome JD Vance along? I don’t see Ohio voters splitting a ticket (DeWine + Ryan).

  18. 18.

    Kropacetic

    I’m starting work, so I’ll check back later but I would like to make one last push with a get out the vote or voter registration donation.

    Whose need is greatest now? Or any planned upcoming events?

    I’ve only given about 200 this year for political donations. That’s still double my previous biggest previous year for donations (2004). More door knocking this year than in the past too.

  19. 19.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @Jerzy Russian: I usually start checking my local Dem Party website (county and state) for recommendations on things like ballot initiatives and obscure races without party identification.

    But yes, I agree that anti-recommendations are a good source of information also. If my Trumpy neighbor has a lawn festooned with signs like “Vote YES on 17 for FREEDOM!!!1!1!” then that’s a pretty solid indicator.

  21. 21.

    Sandia Blanca

    We are visiting family in Georgia. There was a news story yesterday about one polling place that had problems, resulting in people standing in line for hours, with the option of filling out an “in-person absentee ballot.” As one voter exclaimed, “But we’re right here!”

  23. 23.

    The Moar You Know

    Many of the ballot propositions are bewildering to me.  

    @Jerzy Russian: California does a shit job with proposition explanations and titles.

    So, I have a threefold policy:

    1.  Bond measures:  all no.  They can raise that money the right way, by raising taxes and collecting revenue to pay for it, rather than put it on the state credit card.  That is easy.
    2. No on all voter-driven propositions and recalls.  California’s Republicans are the angriest, pettiest and most insane anywhere in the country, they’re the ones responsible for all of these, and my answer to Republican bullshit will always be no.
    3. No on everything else.  The Assembly can pass it.  If it sucks they can take the blame for it.  I’m not going to do their dirty work for them.

    Where CA sucks even more are elections for judges.  They are “nonpartisan”, which is a crock of shit, nothing is MORE partisan than a jurist running for office.  So I go to judgevoterguide.com, which is a site for right-wing Nazi lunatics trying to pack the courts, and vote for whoever has the lowest ratings.  If they’re “not recommended” so much the better.

    I write in “Bugs Bunny” for all the local law enforcement positions, as they’re all ex-cops or prosecutors.  Maybe one day we will get a public defender or defense lawyer running.  A man can dream…

  26. 26.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @Sandia Blanca: Is Georgia one of the places with a law that you can’t provide water to people in line? I think so, I think I heard Stacey Abrams mention that law. Has anyone been arrested for it?

    @The Moar You Know:

    So I go to judgevoterguide.com, which is a site for right-wing Nazi lunatics trying to pack the courts, and vote for whoever has the lowest ratings.

    This is a really good tip. We have no mysterious judge, school board or proposition elections on our ballot this year (southeast PA) but that would be a really useful thing to post every year. Bookmarking.​

  28. 28.

    Shalimar

    The campaign finance numbers are nice, but what do they really mean?  Most of Republican money comes from rich donors, and they have switched their giving to vanity PACs over the last 15 years.  How much are they spending on these races?

  29. 29.

    Geminid

    @John S.: Republicans are making it a race through the bottom. It started with the rise of the tea party radicals in 2010. In my state they allied with the bible thumpers to control the 2013 state convention and  nominate the odious Ken Cuccinelli for Governor. The next year Dave Brat ousted Eric Cantor in the 7th CD primary.

    A majority of Virginians did not buy in. Cuccinelli lost, and Bratt lasted only two terms before Abigail Spanberger flipped the 7th CD in 2018.  She was the first Democrat to win the 7th since the party realignment of the 1970s.

    Nationwide though, trump turbocharged the tea party movement and we can see the results today.

  31. 31.

    sab

    @Kay: That’s reassuring that you see Ryan’s campaign as near perfect. I’m in a blue city, so I have a different perspective, but the guys I like mostly can’t win statewide.

  33. 33.

    J R in WV

    If I was not as infirm as I am right now, I would be all over passing water out to GA voters standing in line and suing anyone who interferes with my god given right to minister first aid to people in need.

    Health care and first aid can’t legitimately be legislated against, and water to prevent dehydration on a warm day is health care. Food too!!

    If any elderly or infirm person is stricken while standing in line, all those who voted in favor of any law purporting to limit care giving for line standers should be indicted for the harm to that elderly person. If they die, manslaughter charges should ensue. Let those monsters discuss their horrid beliefs in court with a prosecutor.

  35. 35.

    Yutsano

    I haven’t gotten my Washington ballot yet, but it may not matter. In 2020 I didn’t get one mailed to me so I just downloaded it off the Washington state website. Easy Peasy. I just want that liar Tiffany Smiley* to lose big time.

    *I’m not sure where the state Republicans dug her up. She’s slick but went negative fast.

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    @oldster: It’s hard to say.

    BobbyBigWheel on Twitter works for https://statesproject.org/ and argues that it’s more cost-effective to try to flip control of state legislatures and that that can have a big impact.

    There’s a blog that has daily updates and has the Senate at 50/2/48, but I can’t find it.  Similar sites like 270towin.com have similar Senate and House maps.  Senate races probably already have plenty of money, and many House races do as well.

    The DSCC and DCCC and DLCC are a few places I donate.  They should have a good view of where late resources can be used effectively.

    I don’t know of a national Get Out The Vote clearinghouse, but there are lots of local groups doing that, including the local parties (you’d have to look around).

    There are good groups here (on the fundraising sidebar) as well, of course.

    HTH a little.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  37. 37.

    Another Scott

    @Jerzy Russian: A quick way to choose is by using one of dsquareddigest’s rules:

    Good ideas do not need to have lies told about them to gain public support.

    If the initiatives are being oversold or chaff is being thrown up, vote NO.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  38. 38.

    Nelle

    Earlier this year, when Mike Franken polled within 8 points of Chuck Grassley, it was noted that no one in the last 40 years had gotten so close.  This weekend, the Selzer polling shows that Franken is now 3 points behind Grassley.  Yet the race still seems to be in the R column.  My R neighbor wants term limits, says he’s been there too long.  But I get the sense he’ll still vote for him, as he promised his beloved mother he would always vote R.  I tell him his mother wouldn’t even be voting R, because today’s Rs aren’t the ones for whom she had loyalty.

    I’m reminding a dual citizen family in New Zealand to get their votes in (from Georgia).  They had been distracted by local elections there but they will try to do so.  Since an Iowa Congresswoman took office on the strength of 6 contested votes in 2020, I figure every vote counts.

  39. 39.

    sab

    @Another Scott: DCCC has been running attack ads for Emilia Sykes, which is helpful since attacking isn’t really her thing. She tends to go more positive. But her opponent is kind of a loon- a brighter version of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Bobert.

  40. 40.

    FelonyGovt

    @The Moar You Know: I sort of feel the same about propositions here in CA, but I thought it was important to vote yes on 1, to guarantee the continued right to reproductive freedom here. And I voted yes on 28, to ban sales of flavored tobacco.

    My ballot has been received and counted, according to LA County.

  41. 41.

    Betty Cracker

    We sent our ballots in last week, and I checked on the county SoE site to make sure they were received and counted, which they promptly were. We have a new SoE this year — a woman who had worked for the previous SoE for more than a quarter century. Every elected official in this county is a Republican, but the previous SoE seemed to operate with integrity despite her party affiliation, and I hope this one does too. No one ever called me back regarding my application to be a poll worker. I don’t know if that’s because they’re screening out Dems or had already been overwhelmed with applications from Oath Keepers and other seditionist scumbags, which abound in the area.

  42. 42.

    john b

    @Kay: It’s too bad to hear that Whaley is doing poorly. I have met her from my days in Dayton (when she was planning a run for mayor) and I liked her. But she got into fake campaign mode and her personality / image seemed totally phony. And in the years since, I know more than one friend from Dayton who had pretty bad feelings about her time as mayor of Dayton. So I guess it’s not surprising.

  43. 43.

    Benw

    @Betty Cracker: at least where I work elections in NY each district is supposed to have a team of at least 1 R and 1 D worker. If FL has similar rules they’d be desperate to have you!

  47. 47.

    ian

    That John McCormick tweet/graph at the bottom of the post doesn’t match what he is trying to say, and lacks any kind of link to an article or source of data.

  49. 49.

    Kathleen

    @sab: Emelia is awesome. I view her as a future star on the national level. Pure grace and professionalism.  Her father taught her well!

  50. 50.

    There go two miscreants

    @Nelle: ​…promised his beloved mother he would always vote R.

    I loved my mother too but can’t imagine doing anything so idiotic.

  51. 51.

    sab

    @The Moar You Know: Ohio our bond issues are mostly local, and I always vote yes. That’s what funds our schools, our libraries, our mental health services, our parks. But our bond issues, being local, are funded by property taxes, not state general funds.

    On other state propositions I tend to vote no. Currently we have statewide prop 1, which wants to have “public safety” an issue on bail. It basically undercuts all the efforts at bail reform since in Ohio rich people get out on bail and poor people don’t. Which ruins their lives- loss of job, loss of apartment, loss of pets to pound, loss of case because can’t help in adequate defense.. Judges already can consider actual public safety on setting bail. Issue is the blanket prosecutor abuse. Prop 1 would let that continue unabated.

    Prop 2 is some thing that Frank LaRose the Sec of State decided was needed. Ohio municipalities currently may allow non-citizen residents to vote on local issues, like bond issues. For some reason LaRose sees this as a problem and wants to stop it. Buff up his build the wall credentials.

    Why is this even a state issue? Local municipalities should decide who votes on local issues.

    Third proposition #10 is local. We want a city community police review board because after the slaughter of Jaylon Walker all eight of those police got quietly reinstated. Then the mayor decided not to run for re-election. State AG has done nothing. That is a problem that needs addressing. I am voting yes on that.

  52. 52.

    MisterDancer

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: Is Georgia one of the places with a law that you can’t provide water to people in line?

    Georgia certainly is the most famous, if not the only. Here’s a story from August on the state of legal challenges to this horrific law: https://www.wrdw.com/2022/08/19/ban-free-food-water-upheld-now-ga-voting-sites/

    I think so, I think I heard Stacey Abrams mention that law. Has anyone been arrested for it?

    Not that I’ve heard. That said, the Primary season in GA wasn’t contentious, by and large, aside from that Secretly White Supremacist Monument getting destroyed. (The evidence of the Racist bullshit is in a 17 min John Oliver bit, for reference).

    But it’s crucial to note that the water BS isn’t even the worst bit — it gives the (GOP-controlled) State power to Pull a DeSantis over local elections:

    The new law allows the State Board of Elections to determine that these county boards are performing poorly, replacing the entire board with an administrator chosen at the state level.
    At the same time, the bill enhances the General Assembly’s control over the state board.

  54. 54.

    Scout211

    Our California ballots were dropped off at our local drop box and yesterday BallotTrax told us they were good. Yay.

    We had a momentary scare because Mr. Scout used a Sharpie and it bled through to the back side of the ballot. I called the election office and right away she said that was fine. They have had that happen with the mail-in ballots numerous times and did testing to see if it was a problem. Unless the bleed affects the names and the boxes on the back side, she said it would be fine and there was no need for a replacement ballot.

    Lesson learned. Sharpies bleed onto the back side. We will not be using a Sharpie again.

  55. 55.

    Steeplejack

    Thread on that hair-on-fire NYT poll:

    The media has been breathlessly reacting to some new polling published by the New York Times yesterday.

    The poll allegedly showed that Dems now trail Repubs on generic ballots.

    It also alleged independents had swung wildly towards Rs in the past month.

    Yeah, about that …

    1/

    — The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) October 18, 2022

  56. 56.

    Scout211

    @Jerzy Russian: There was a thread a few days ago with commenters from California posting about the propositions. It was helpful but I can’t remember which open thread it was. Sorry.

    I do remember that Proposition #1 is YES!

    We both voted NO on both gambling propositions (26,27).

  57. 57.

    opiejeanne

    @Yutsano: I’m wondering where Smiley dug up her little batch of  “lifelong Democrats” who are voting for her and against Patty Murray. I’m not buying their stories even though I do know that such idiots exist.

    My favorite comment in the voters’ pamphlet is from someone running against Roger Goodman, one of our State Representatives. She says she has never held office and that’s why we should vote for her.

    I also love all of the railing against Olympia by Republicans, especially east of the Cascades, who are begging to be sent to Olympia.

  58. 58.

    Ohio Mom

    @sab: We have several bond (issues (aka Levies) here in Hamilton County, including Mental Health and Senior Services. I always worry that too many at one time and people will vote against all of them. But then I am a worry wart by nature.

    I seem to recall the folks in Columbus changing things a while back so that less state tax money flows back to local governments. I haven’t seen any follow-up (why would I expect to see any?) about how much that has caused the need to raise money through bonds/levies. But I suspect there is a relationship there.

  59. 59.

    New Deal democrat

    For those who might be interested, there is currently a good old-fashioned economics knife fight going on via twitter between Larry Summers and Paul Krugman.

    It started when Summers wrote that the official CPI measure of housing, “owners’ equivalent rent” as well as “rent of primary residence,” lag actual conditions by about a year. Krugman subsequently agreed, and went on to make further points:

    https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1579796784586829825

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1579848725807403009

    In short, the OER should not be used by the Fed in setting policy. The Fed is currently chasing a phantom lagging menace (something, by the way, I have forecast for almost the past year, see my recapitulation here):

    https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2022/10/september-consumer-inflation-primarily.html

    What this really means is that the Fed should have started to raise rates about a year before they did, i.e., in spring of 2021; and they could have raised rates much more gradually thus avoiding crashing the economy.

    Anyway, Summers then took exception to Krugman’s suggestion that this proved that inflation was “transitory” after all. Here is his first tweet, pretty sharply criticizing Paul Krugman:

    https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1582019890474459137

    Krugman responded with a defense of his view, and it has continued since then with further tweets on both sides (I won’t add more links, just check Summers’ and Krugman’s latest tweets), as well as with other prominent economists, like Dean Baker and Adam Ozcimek weighing in.

    FWIW, I agree with Summers, and for most of the exact reasons he cites, that Krugman is wrong to re-assert that inflation is really “transitory.” Replacing OER with house price indexes wouldn’t materially change this past month’s core measure. It would simply be declining from a much higher rate, rather than rising – and would have already persisted for over 18 months.

    I also agree with much of what Summers says about wages. It is another way of arguing my game of “reverse musical chairs,” by which I mean that there are more job openings than applicants, meaning job seekers can pick and choose the best wage on offer – leaving their current jobs vacant, and their employers having to raise wages in turn to attract new hires. Job switchers are getting much better wage increases. I also agree that Krugman should have considered the Employment Cost Index, which normalizes for job categories (remember that “average” wages shot up during the lockdowns, because low wage workers were primarily those furloughed).

    But I disagree with Summers that there is any durable wage-price spiral. The ECI has only been reported through Q2. With Job Openings declining sharply in Q3, I suspect the ECI will as well – although, again, with openings still at elevated rates, ECI will probably remain elevated, but lower when it is reported.

  61. 61.

    Mimi

    I don’t really understand why the Obama’s vote here, or why they still own that house on the south side.

  62. 62.

    JGreen

    I would recommend going to Pete Rates The Propositions (peterates.com). Peter Stahl (a friend of mine–full disclosure) does a very good job at describing the issues and making a recommendation on each proposition with an explanation. I think he’s very reliable and I think his point of view would be in line with most jackals, too. Check it out. Now, I have to find a similar resource to decide on how to vote on all the judges on the ballot.

  63. 63.

    sab

    @Mimi: Michele’s roots are there. Most of her life and her family. I have moved around a lot, and it is weird and uncomfortable to vote in a new community where you happen to live at the moment, and you don’t know much, and you have a lifetime of information about where you came from.

  65. 65.

    Soprano2

    So we’re in the Dallas Airport right now waiting to board. Note to self: don’t wear pants with a metal tag on the back pocket when you fly, because that means you get the full treatment. Another note: don’t forget to ask hubby where his pocket knife is, so you can make sure it’s in the checked bags. We had to check his carry-on because he forgot and put it in there. Otherwise everything is going well, the flight is on time. It’s full, so that’s going to be fun for 8 hours, and we aren’t sitting together. I’m definitely paying for the wi-fi.

    I listened to the latest episode of “The Wilderness” podcast on the way here. Everyone should listen to these eps, they’re eye-opening. One guy liked Ron DeSantis and AOC “because they stand up to elites”. These were working class Latinos in Las Vegas. Normies don’t have the same view of things that political junkies have, that’s for sure.

  66. 66.

    sab

    @Ohio Mom: It has been twenty years since I lived in California, and I felt then that too much of their government and funding came from Sacramento, so everyone local just tuned out.

    Ohio much of government is still local so people follow it. But it clobbers the Appalachian counties that have no money. But moving things to Columbus would just increase corruption and fix nothing in those counties.

    I feel like everything in Columbus is a boondoggle. With every new administration why  is every state website reorganized so that it takes half an hour to navigate? Their functions haven’t changed. Just a bunch of hangers on want to cash in with new unneccesary work

    ETA Columbus used to be just another biggish city in Ohio. Now it swamps every other city. This didn’t just happen. State government being increased under Republicans. Not more services. Just more activtiy.

    Reminds me of the UK. That is a big island with lots of people. Why is everything happening in London, where there isn’t much but national government and a theatre district?

  67. 67.

    JGreen

    Sorry, I don’t know how to do this very well. This was supposed to be a reply to Jerzy Russian (and for other CA jackals) about CA ballot propositions.

    I should stick to lurking.

  68. 68.

    Soprano2

    @The Moar You Know: We can’t do that in MO because the legislature will never pass progressive ideas. The only way we could have gotten Medicaid expansion and medical pot is through the ballot. That’s how we keep right-to- work out of the state.

  69. 69.

    Jackie

    @Steeplejack: Yah, this BS was exposed by someone on msnbc  yesterday. *Somebody* is trying to depress Democratic voters. Hopefully, it backfires and Rethugs think they don’t need to vote.

  70. 70.

    sab

    @JGreen: Next time, hit the reply button at the right bottom of the comment of the person you are responding to before you respond. That puts their box address at the top of your reply.

  72. 72.

    Jackie

    @opiejeanne: “I also love all of the railing against Olympia by Republicans, especially east of the Cascades, who are begging to be sent to Olympia.“

    I noticed that, too! LOL As an eastern Washingtonian, I appreciated the hints on who NOT to vote for! *Radical Left* was another helpful hint!

  79. 79.

    Steeplejack

    Accidentally caught Andrea Mitchell when I turned on the TV just now. She is interviewing Nancy Pelosi and just had the utter gall—and complete lack of self-awareness—to ask Pelosi about “generational change” and the (old) age of Dem leadership. Looked and found that Mitchell is only 75, but she seems much less vital and coherent than Nancy Smash. Grr!

  80. 80.

    Origuy

    I got two California mail-in ballots, identical except for the number in the corner. I called the county Registrar of Voters to find out what was going on. Turns out that because I had renewed my driver’s license earlier this month and marked the box for “Yes I want a mail in ballot”, I got one sent even though I was already on the list. The woman at the county said that they keep two lists. I’m sure that had I sent in both–which I had no intention of doing–it would have be caught. It still seems like a bug in the system and the sort of thing that lets rightwingers freak out about election fraud.

  81. 81.

    Kelly

    @The Moar You Know: Bond measures:  all no

    Might be an OK rule now, maybe. A really bad rule for the previous 10 years since interest rates were so low. We should have borrowed to built a lot of infrastructure back then. Even with current interest rates bear in mind stuff gets built over time, used over time and paid for with inflated dollars so debt financing makes sense.

  82. 82.

    Scout211

    @Origuy: yes, the problem seems to be with the DMV application. The online question about registering to vote on the DMV license renewal application is very confusing. There is no option to check a box that you are already registered. So applicants check yes when they should check no and are now registered twice. But a check in the no box seems too much like you are choosing not to be registered to vote. I’m not sure if this is on purpose to capture everyone who wants to be registered even if they are already registered or if it is a glitch. But I am sure this happens often.

  83. 83.

    Eljai

    @Steeplejack: In that interview Andrea kept harping that Biden should have pushed harder to codify Roe before the midterms and Nancy replied that we didn’t have 60 votes.  Andrea just repeated “But don’t you think Biden could have blah, blah, blah…”  Then Nancy said “you think Biden could have gotten 10 republicans?  Come on.”

    I’m pretty sure Andrea Mitchell knows how Congress works, but maybe I’m wrong.  Anyway, go Nancy!

  84. 84.

    Matt McIrvin

    One of the MA ballot questions this time around, concerning alcoholic beverage sales, was opaque to me until I figured out who was supporting each side. These things are always a battle between the opposing camps of the liquor stores and the supermarkets, with the liquor stores mostly trying to restrict the supermarkets’ encroachment on their turf. This one is from the liquor-store camp; though it’s framed as a liberalization of the existing blue laws, the supermarkets hate it.

  85. 85.

    JGreen

    @sab: I thought I had done that, but it didn’t turn out that way.  If this response goes to you, then I guess I got it right this time.  Many others responded to Jerzy Russian before I got there, so it wasn’t a total loss and I do want to recommend Pete Rates to Californians looking for good info about ballot propositions.  He does good work and we need the help.

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    @Steeplejack: Mitchell also knows that even if Speaker Pelosi was planning on stepping aside after the midterms and making way for younger leadership, there’s no way she would say that until after the votes are counted.

  87. 87.

    StringOnAStick

    I wrote 40 postcards yesterday and will get more addresses tomorrow; today is already fully booked until 9pm.

  88. 88.

    Betty Cracker

    @StringOnAStick: You’re a champ! 30 is the most I’ve ever done in one day. I finished a slew of Ohio Supreme Court cards yesterday, but I have to get stamps before requesting more addresses.

  89. 89.

    Geminid

    I listen to DC-based WTOP News when I’m in my car and yesterday I heard an Abigail Spanberger ad. It featured former 5th VA CD Congressman Denver Riggleman endorsing Spanberger. He was only a one-termer and only about 30% of his old district falls in the new 7th, but his emphasis on her independence might appeal to some Independents and maybe a few Republicans.

    Virginia does not register by party, but the Wason Center poll released October 13 showed that 31% of Virginia registered voters described themselves as Independents; 29% said they were Republican and 35% self-identified as Democrat. The 7th probably has more Republicans and fewer Democrats than the state average, so Spanberger needs to make a good showing among independent voters.

    Joe Biden would have carried the new district in 2020 while Glenn Yougkin would have carried it last year. My gut feeling is that Spanberger will win, but she is new to 70% of the new district’s residents so I can’t be too sure.

    The new 7th CD runs from the I-95 corridor west to the Blue Ridge. Two thirds of the population lives on the eastern side.

  90. 90.

    Citizen Alan

    @opiejeanne:

    She says she has never held office and that’s why we should vote for her.

    Honestly, I voted (absentee) for the beautician running against Trent Kelly. I assume she’s totally unqualified to be a member of Congress, but she’s a Dem and, unlike Kelly, not a traitor, and that’s all I needed to know. Every other race was an unopposed Republican except for a nonpartisan judicial race.

  91. 91.

    Sure Lurkalot

    Voters See Democracy in Peril, but Saving It Isn’t a Priority
    Guess where this headline is from? I’d quote from the article but I quit that rag 2 years ago and frankly, what the fuck took me so long?

  92. 92.

    VFX Lurker

    @Jerzy Russian: Our California ballots arrived in the mail recently.   My Congress Critter, State Assembly Critter, etc. are all Democrats, so no problem there.  Many of the ballot propositions are bewildering to me.  I will wait on those a bit.  Usually it comes to a point when someone like Bill Kristol says “vote yes on X”, after which I mark the “no” bubble.

    I’m voting “yes” on Prop 1 to pour cement on reproductive rights here in California. I’m also voting against Prop 30, which Lyft wants badly enough to bankroll ($45.37 million out of $47.8 million raised in favor). 🙄

    Voter’s Edge has a good overview of the proposals, who’s raising funds for/against each proposal, and which organizations/individuals support/oppose each proposal.

  94. 94.

    trollhattan

    @VFX Lurker: Inching closer to deciphering the California propositions and initiatives, so I can ink those bubbles and turn in my ballot.

    For whatever reason the biggest battle this season taking place in my mailbox is the state senate fight in my district. I get five or six cards for each candidate, daily. I could build a second house–of cards!

  99. 99.

    Geminid

    @Christine: Many elements of the essay are true, but I think most political professionals on the Democratic side already know them. They’re too busy right now to write trite articles about messaging, though.

    But there is a very large ecosystem of amateurs like you and me, and some of us love to debate these questions!

  100. 100.

    Eyeroller

    @Frankensteinbeck: And of course the NYT will hype the poll it sponsored.

    It sounds like it wasn’t so much the sample size (which *could* be large enough, though it may be too small to estimate state races) as the methodology.

  101. 101.

    Old School

    @Christine: While I agree that different voters respond to different messages that just means that being more provocative, less woke, and picking more fights isn’t going to be the one size fits all method either.

  102. 102.

    satby

    @Mimi: They stated when they left the White House that they intended to stay in the DC area until both daughters finished school. Their house in Hyde Park is near where the Obama Presidential Library is being built, and where the Obama Foundation is. They’re frequently in Chicago, and that’s their legal residence, plus it’s a beautiful area, also where the University of Chicago is located. Why shouldn’t they come back?

  103. 103.

    Sandia Blanca

    @MisterDancer: Thank you for answering; this is more than I knew as a visitor to the state. We are in Cobb County, normally a Republican stronghold, but most of the signs we’ve seen are for Abrams and Warnock.

  104. 104.

    Yutsano

    @Jackie: ​Okay, riddle me this:

    Why is Newhouse running an attack ad against Doug White? I would think Dan would be having a nice cruise to Election Day while barely spending a dime. Why waste money like that unless something hinky is happening? ‘Tis a mystery!

  105. 105.

    Ruckus

    @Jerzy Russian:

    Have gotten some mailers, all from at least supposedly Dems that a few of our ballet initiatives are real crap. I have only skimmed the flyers and not yet checked out who the senders are or what the 4 thousand props on the ballot are so I’ll do that soon and post back what I find and think.

  106. 106.

    Geminid

    @Yutsano: Maybe Newhouse’s polling is showing Republicans drifting towards White, and he’s trying to scare them back.

    It might not work. Newhouse is one of the ten House Impeachers. Four retired, and four got creamed in their primaries. Newhouse advanced through a jungle primary, but hard core trumpers may still want revenge. They’re a cranky bunch, and some could vote for White out of spite.

    I read that Newhouse has an 800 acre farm. He’ll probably have a better life if he loses. He could build a really nice miniature golf course!

  107. 107.

    Kropacetic

    @Sandia Blanca: We are in Cobb County, normally a Republican stronghold, but most of the signs we’ve seen are for Abrams and Warnock.

    Well make sure you get those signs to their polling places. People keep telling me signs don’t vote.

    I wonder sometimes because I generally tend to see more R signs in my mostly blue area. I often wonder if people are more likely to put up signs that are counter to the politics of their district as a sort of defiance.

  108. 108.

    Jackie

    @Yutsano: I haven’t seen that!

    I can only guess the MAGAts are either voting for Doug OR not voting for either. I’ve read several articles that since TFG’s endorsed choice – Culp – didn’t make the ballot, they’re taking their MAGA flag home. Although, I imagine they’d vote for MAGA-lite Smiley.

Comments are closed.