The House is 100% "within the margin of effort." Great way to put it! https://t.co/cltuPmEDrb
— Rachel Bitecofer 📈🔭🇺🇲🇺🇦 (@RachelBitecofer) October 19, 2022
Let’s win this!
Mousebumples has offered a $1,000 Angel match for our effort to put boots on the ground in AZ by funding Worker Action.
Here’s a link to an article about their contribution in turning AZ blue in 2020.
Up to $50 per person will be matched – if you post your match and amount in the comments. Even if you were matched yesterday by Almost Retired, or you were matched this afternoon by Barry, this is a new match so you are eligible for this match, too.
With our fundraising yesterday and today, we sent the equivalent of 5 people to work in AZ for a week!
Can we do it again?
Donate
Open thread.
Update on Friday morning: Yes we can! We have now funded 9.5 out-of-state folks to work in AZ for a week.
WaterGirl
Worker Power is a larger organization than we have targeted in the past. However, this close to the election, our money and efforts are best deployed to a “shovel-ready” organization (so to speak), with its organizational infrastructure already in place.
Almost Retired and I spoke directly with Worker Power Executive Director Brendan Walsh, who estimated that $1,000 would support an out-of-town canvasser for a week, if he or she required travel and housing stipends.
WaterGirl
Donations will also, of course, support the hiring and training of local residents, who would not require travel and housing accommodations. So $1k will definitely support more boots on the ground than the out-of-staters.
So our money will be put to good use!
When we talked to the Executive Director of Worker Power,he assured us that canvassers would also be laser-focused on the down-ballot races we’re supporting with Balloon-Juice thermometers, including the Secretary of State and Attorney General races.
Alison Rose
Kicked in $25. Let’s goooooooo.
Alison Rose
@WaterGirl: z
ETA I figured they were placeholders but I couldn’t resist :P
WaterGirl
@Alison Rose: I was trying to hold those spots for the additional information about Worker Power! You could me in the middle of a copy & paste!
Marmot
All the gnashing is over the Times-Siena poll? For a bunch of people who obsess over polls, the gnashers and the political press don’t seem to really grasp statistics.
Unrelatedly, I’ve known a lot of J-schoolers who are “just not a math person.”
Ha Nguyen
Just donated $100.00
Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!)
I’m in for $50!
Babette
In for $100.
Mike E
Walked to the polls to cast my ballot on the first day of early voting here in NC. I was the only one wearing a mask there or in the student center as far as I could see.
PatrickG
Long day so maybe just my brain but does worker power have a website? I can’t find much info on them.
WaterGirl
@Marmot: I am only paying attention to trends in polling this year. And even that is suspect if they change some of their double-secret sauce midstream and don’t announce it.
All the polls are based on someone’s idea of “likely voters”.
Plus, there are so many wildcards this year that it’s highly unlikely that the “conventional wisdom” holds.
And the fucking media has lost the plot and forgotten what the role of the fourth estate is.
We just need to vote, to do the work, and donate what we can.
We can’t control the outcome, so our job is to leave it all on the field, knowing that we have done everything we can to end up with the outcome we want.
Uncertainty is hard, so some people like to settle the outcome in advance.
And tons of people have agendas, so the media tries to influence the outcome to what suits them.
We just have to make the calls and write the postcards and knock on the doors and work the polls and donate what we can.
Geminid
@Marmot: Critics examined the “crosstabs” of the two Sienna/NYT polls and quickly found that the number of Trump voters was 4% greater in the second than in the first. That alone would account for the “swing” the Times reported. If this is so, the Times was either sloppy, or malevolent.
WaterGirl
@PatrickG: No, it’s not just you. They are in the middle of rebranding and re-doing their website, so you won’t find anything.
edit: this is what the executive director told me yesterday.
WaterGirl
@Alison Rose: @Ha Nguyen: @Babette: @Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!):
That’s $175 toward the match! (And an extra $100 for boots on the ground that wasn’t matched.)
Thank you so much!
SpaceUnit
Fuck it. I’m in for $50. Let’s win this.
WaterGirl
@SpaceUnit: Let’s win this, indeed!
We are up to $225 for the match.
thank you
BCHS Class of 1980
First of all, I threw in $100. About the polls, I suspect some of the late “tightening” was due to the usual shift to likely voter models; that shift is usually not actively hidden but is rarely publicized. I’ve also read that the undercounting of Trump voters in 2016 and 2020 may have pollsters reweighting their samples. To that I say, what happened in 2018? Seriously I don’t know but I think this cycle is mor akin to ‘18 than the other two since TFG himself is not on the ballot.
SiubhanDuinne
Another $25.00 from me. Thanks, Mousebumples!
WaterGirl
@BCHS Class of 1980: Thank you for your donation!
We are up to $275 for the $1k match.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Will donate $25 in a bit when I get home
Joy in FL
in for $25
Thank you, Mousebumples : )
WaterGirl
I dropped off my mail-in ballot today. Hopefully all the robots-calls will stop, but more importantly, no one will waste their time or money leaving literature at my door or calling me to tell me my voting location. Win-win!
WaterGirl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I will wait to count your $25 until you add the comment saying you have donated that.
WaterGirl
@Joy in FL: An we’re up to $300 for the match.
thank you!
SpaceUnit
I forgot to thank Mousebumples. Thank you very much!
El Muneco
@Geminid: ” If this is so, the Times was either sloppy, or malevolent.”
Look at their track record – have they _ever_ been sloppy?
Marmot
@WaterGirl: I could not agree more. And I never consider this one, but it’s undoubtedly true:
So weird. So true.
Marmot
@El Muneco: There was that one time with Judith Miller.
zhena gogolia
@El Muneco: As I said in the thread below, they recently put “Let’s Go Brandon” on the cover of the Sunday magazine. So they’re not being too subtle.
Marmot
@Geminid: And fine, too. They’re welcome to try out a new likely voter model.
But in today’s wackadoodle polling landscape, one poll is interesting but not definitive. I mean, really.
WaterGirl
We are at $325 toward the match – I had missed Subaru Diane!
WaterGirl
As soon as we make this match, we will have sent 9 boots on the ground peeps to AZ for a week.
Isn’t that what Biden always says? There’s nothing we can’t do on Balloon Juice if we do it together. :-)
And with that, I’m closing the laptop for the evening.
Thanks so much to everyone who is donating, and special thank you to our three angels!
Marmot
$25
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue team
Sign me up for Team Fuck It. In for another $50. 🤘🏻
Mrs Ragbag
In for $50.
mittwink
In for $50. Let’s do this.
Almost Retired
@PatrickG: Here’s some information about the organization’s success last election cycle.
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/unite-here-arizona/
Mai Naem mobile
$25. I cannot believe Qari Lake is even competitive with Katie Hobbs, forget being ahead in the polls.
MazeDancer
.In for $10
Mousebumples
Thanks to everyone for donating! I’m off to bed shortly, but I’ll plan to check in tomorrow morning and hopefully be at the full match total to toss in my 💰.
Time to GOTV. Let’s do this! 👏👏👏
Eunicecycle
I put in $50. I hope I made it in time for the match
ETA: Thanks Mousebumples!
mvr
Just put in $25, hope I’m in time.
Redshift
$50 from me. Thanks, Mousebumples!
PatrickG
@Almost Retired:
Thanks for the info! And thanks to WaterGirl too, of course. It’s habit for me to search for info before donating and not finding anything was off-putting.
P.S. I love this site. Thank you all for being incredible people.
Wolvesvalley
In for $50.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@WaterGirl:
$25 donated! : )
Westyny
In for $25.
Azhrie139
Chipped in $250.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
In for $100
Gretchen
In for $50
Fogeyman
Donated $50. Let’s do this thing.
OzarkHillbilly
In for $50.
WaterGirl
@Marmot: @Mrs Ragbag: @mittwink: @Mai Naem mobile: @MazeDancer: @Eunicecycle: @mvr: @Redshift: @Wolvesvalley: @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): @Westyny: @Azhrie139: @Gretchen: @OzarkHillbilly:
Wow, you guys are good! I just got up and checked this first thing.
The overnight haul brings us to $1,010 for this match!
So the Mousebumples match is complete!
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: thanks for the math, WG! I’ll get my match in shortly. 😊
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: I was just headed over to email you! I just wanted to get the replies in there first. :-)
piratedan
@Mai Naem mobile: she’s recently coming out with ads that talk about repealing taxes for renters and on food…. how the fuck she proposes to pay for it is not discussed… so we’re into the magic pixie dust theory of politics and finance.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
Can anyone else see my $50 donation at comment #35? Not sure if it made WG’s tally.
Go team! Gotta say, giving like this as a group and with these wonderful matchers makes it a lot more fun and energizing than just giving solo.
Leslie
Aw, darn, too late for the match. I just put another $50 in.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
@Leslie: It’ll still help tho!
hope you have a good Saturday