Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

Bark louder, little dog.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Giving up is unforgivable.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

You are here: Home / Elections / 2022 Elections / Proud to Be A Democrat Open Thread: Don’t Stop Fighting Now

Proud to Be A Democrat Open Thread: Don’t Stop Fighting Now

by | 60 Comments

This post is in: , , ,

“We’re running against the tide, and we’re beating the tide,” Biden said Monday during a visit to Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington that was meant to rally staff for the final stretch of the campaign.

“I can’t think of a more consequential election that I’ve been involved in and we’ve been involved in,” he told the group, adding, “When we get people out to vote we win, and you’re getting them out to vote.”…

Biden has sought to make the election into a choice between Democrats’ policies and a Republican Party he has painted as extreme. He regularly contrasts achievements, including his landmark health and climate law, with GOP lawmakers’ plans to slash Medicare and Social Security and extend Trump’s tax cuts.

“Everybody wants to make it a referendum, but it’s a choice between two vastly different visions for America,” he said Monday, adding that Republicans have “stated boldly that they want to cut Social Security, Medicare, and to the point that they’ll shut down the government.”

The president again chastised Republicans for threatening to use the US debt limit as leverage to gain entitlement cuts.

“There’s nothing, nothing that would create more chaos, more inflation and more damage to the American economy than this,” he said. “Republicans are going to crash the economy.”…

Biden is scheduled to travel to Philadelphia on Friday for a Democratic Party dinner. He’s also traveling to Syracuse, New York, on Thursday to speak about Micron Technology Inc.’s plans to build a chip manufacturing facility. The area is represented by a Republican in the House — John Katko — who is not seeking re-election.

Biden on Wednesday will appear at “virtual political receptions” for House lawmakers from Nevada, Iowa and Pennsylvania, according to the White House…

Reader Interactions

60Comments

  2. 2.

    catclub

    All I know is Kansas.

    yeah, that was quite the angry women’s vote.
    How was the polling for that one?

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    @zhena gogolia: Yup.

    Me:

    KWCH.com (from July 20):

    KANSAS CITY, Kan. (KCTV) – A first look at polling results of the Kansas Amendment 2 ballot vote have been made public, and it looks to be a tight race already.

    A poll from Co/efficient poll showed 47 percent of Kansas voters will vote “Yes” on the measure. The poll also shared that 43 percent of voters plan to vote “No,” and 10 percent remain undecided.

    The poll, which was published Monday, surveyed 1,557 voters with a “margin of error” of 2.78 percent.

    The actual results, less than 2 weeks later, were a landslide:

    A total of 939,371 people cast a ballot, Bryan Caskey, the Kansas director of elections, told the board. Caskey, calling the election “historic,” said the previous high point for total ballots cast in a primary election was 532,000 in 1996. Roughly 48% of registered voters cast a ballot in August, compared to 39% in 1996, the previous high in the past 30 years. The amendment suffered a landslide defeat of 59.16% to 40.84% in the final, official vote count. But that didn’t stop diehard anti-abortion activists and election deniers from advancing baseless allegations of fraud.

    Women are fired up and ready to go.

    (see the original for embedded links)

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  8. 8.

    UncleEbeneezer

    Related question on polling: Can anyone here explain why actual Campaign’s internal polls are usually much better (more accurate) than outside pollsters?

  9. 9.

    Dan B

    @schrodingers_cat: Im pretty sure that Zelenskyy will have something to say about negotiating.  Oh, nevermind, he’s already said it many times.

    I’m surprised that Jayapal, who used to be my rep, would support something like this.  She usually explains what the conditions are to begin talks.  Ceasefire would be one condition.  Leaving the nuclear plant would be another.  UN peacekeeping mission and Red Cross access to POW’s and displaced Ukrainians another couple.

  11. 11.

    Scout211

    Interesting analysis at Time.com.

    In lieu, those of us who make careers in the political ecosystem substitute proxies: campaign finance reports, TV ad reservations, digital and social outlays, candidate visits, voter-registration data, even consultant gossip about who’s in and who’s out. But we lean more on polling than any of those other vices. And the problem there is that what should be just another informative input has become treated as predictive.

    . . .

    Public-opinion surveys have become a substitute for actual analysis. Take, for instance, the shift in a recent New York Times/ Siena poll’s most-predictive question. When asked who should control Congress next year, Republicans appeared to have a 4-point advantage over Democrats; read the actual numbers, it’s closer to 2.5 points. Negligible? Sure. But not entirely a rounding error.

     

    Go a little down-stream in the polling numbers, and it gets far dicier. The Times’ September poll showed independent women favoring Democrats by a fulsome 14 points. A month later, they’re backing Republicans by 18 points. That’s an epic 32-point swing, one that is almost impossible to imagine in practice. But then you look at the details; the embedded margin of error for the small sample size is 20 points. Put simply: they didn’t talk to enough of those independent women to know what they’re talking about, but the rest of us can’t shut up about it.

     

    And this is the problem with polling right now: we treat it as Gospel. Polls have consistently—with the exception of 2012—given Democrats too much of a leg up in recent cycles. Pollsters have missed the turn-out universe by factors of two to eight points. The Trump era contributed to a surge in voters refusing to engage with pollsters, resulting in bogus numbers. The pros are already anticipating garbage data in the stream. And fickle analysis has left confidence in the polls shaky at best and ruinous in reality.

  12. 12.

    JoyceH

    My take on the GOP ‘surge’. I don’t think the polls are rigged – I think the pollsters have done their usual thing. In the last few weeks before an election, they switch from listing numbers from ‘registered voters’ to listing those from ‘likely voters’. And they all have their own formulae for what constitutes a ‘likely voter’. It’s skewed toward older people, since younger adults are less likely voters. And it counts a regular voting history as making person a likely voter, which only makes sense. If you vote in every general and midterm for a decade and more, you’re a good bet to vote this time. Again, plenty of younger people just haven’t been eligible for long enough to make that cut. PLUS – the likely voter profile doesn’t take into account an Outside Event that motivates people who are not those likely voters who vote in every election. Well, there have been several Outside Events that could influence the Unlikely Voter, the rash of school shootings, 1/6 itself and Trump’s continuing presence on the scene, and the Big Kahuna – Dobbs.

  13. 13.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Scout211: Also, with the Siena poll I believe the wording was rather different between the two polls, which could also play a role in the major swing of Independent Women.  I have a VERY hard time believing inflation has suddenly taken over women’s concerns.  And in canvassing two weeks ago, almost every woman (likely Dem) that we spoke with was still pissed about Dobbs and ready to vote for Christy Smith.

  17. 17.

    Baud

    @Jackie:

    I don’t give him credit for 2016 because of Comey. But I obviously hope he’s right this time. It is weird to hear him predict a victory.

  20. 20.

    Martin

    So, the turnout models are all busted. All of them. Everyone knows they’re busted, and nobody knows how they’re busted. Nobody knows shit. That’s the takeaway. Been true for quite a while now.

  21. 21.

    Martin

    @Baud: And in 2020.

    I don’t have evidence to support this but the current climate suggests that Dems should outperform the polls. Doesn’t mean they’ll outperform in the right ways or places, though.

  24. 24.

    Geminid

    @schrodingers_cat: That link is to the apparent official Twitter account of the Congressional Democratic Progressive Caucus. But while 30 caucus members signed the letter at least 65 did not. What gives with that?

    I have other questions about this letter, and one is: why now, 15 days before the midterms

    The one thing that has changed recently is that the Russians are upping their threat of using nuclear weapons, with the intent of buffaloing Ukraine’s supporters. Those 30 Representatives might as well have pinned signs on their backs saying, “Blackmail Me.”

  25. 25.

    WaterGirl

    We all want the reassurance of good polls, but no-one knows this year.  Anyone who thinks they know is full of shit.

    Seriously.  All the old rules no longer apply, and the previous conventional wisdom isn’t applicable, and there are so many wildcards that it’s really impossible to predict.

    We just have to live with the uncertainty.

    So we continue to fight and continue to call and continue to write postcards and continue to donate what we can.

    That’s all there is.

    Let’s win this.

  27. 27.

    H.E.Wolf

    I noticed the Bloomberg article quoted in the post used “entitlement cuts” – rather than “safety-net cuts” – for their framing.

    Huh. I wonder who they think their readership is? //

    Meanwhile we have another GOTV postcard “write-along” on the blog tomorrow, I think. The previous one was full of music and good vibes.

  30. 30.

    WaterGirl

    @H.E.Wolf:

    Meanwhile we have another GOTV postcard “write-along” on the blog tomorrow, I think. The previous one was full of music and good vibes.

    Yes!  8pm blog time.  We’ll have a music / postcard writing party thread and a zoom that anyone can join with video or audio.

    Anyone can join the zoom whether you are writing postcards or not.  We can be entertainment (aka interesting conversation) while folks write the cards, or stamp them.

    Send me photos of your postcards and I will add them to that thread.  I think everyone had fun on Saturday.

  32. 32.

    Scout211

    @Another Scott: There was a debate yesterday here in California  between Governor Newsom and some other guy.  Apparently, this was a highlight for the other guy:

     

    Twitter

    California gubernatorial nominee Brian Dahle (R) attempted to make a joke about Joe Biden at Sunday’s debate against Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). We dare you to watch this without cringing.

  33. 33.

    TaMara

    So Republicans. How many are really left? Between covid deaths and trump/insurrection defection, are they down to the whacko 27% numbers yet? I expect some independents will still swing right, but will others just stay home hoping to wait out the crazies?

    Does that factor in any of the polling?

    Also, I’m sticking with my gut feeling that anywhere Dems are polling close to 45-50% they will win handily. Women are pissed. Men who love and respect women are pissed. POC are pissed. Young people are pissed. And Dems have solutions while Reps only have grievance. I think that matters.

    The media wants a horserace, but I’m thinking internal polling must not look good for Reps retaking the house because McCarthy sure sounds defeatist to me. And Nancy sure doesn’t look like someone who expects to lose.

    Anyway, those are my thoughts for all that is worth. LOL

  35. 35.

    japa21

    For what it is worth, Howard Dean expects the Dems to pick up 2 to 3 Senate seats and a couple House seats.

  38. 38.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: I can’t access the Crist/DeSantis debate live, but Ron Filipkowsi has been live-tweeting debate highlights, @ronfilipkowski.

    Formerly a prosecutor and now a defense attorney, Filipkowski is an ex-Republican who has turned on his former party with a veangence.

    The political magazine Florida Politics should have good post-debate coverage, as will state newspapers.

  42. 42.

    Geminid

    @Matt McIrvin: It’s not like Michael Moore is speaking from any deep base of knowledge when he makes these predictions. They are self-serving, and are intended to promote a political narrative. I’m sure he already has an alibi ready if it turns out he is wrong.

    And that will promote a political narrative too. Michael Moore is just a fucking asshole.

  43. 43.

    Geminid

    @Scout211: Thanks. Still can’t use it. My phone data is so slow I can’t catch live stuff, podcasts, videos etc.

    That’s just as well. I get little enough done in real life as it is.

  45. 45.

    TheTruffle

    @Baud: I was pretty disappointed by 2020…except for the fact that Biden won, of course. It was a relief when the Dems flipped the House…but I’ll never understand why they didn’t do better that year.

  46. 46.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Geminid: The reason he thought the Republicans would never really outlaw abortion is that he thought that if they did, they’d get creamed in elections. So maybe he’s just being consistent there.

  48. 48.

    Geminid

    @Matt McIrvin: I’ll give Moore credit for consistency. But he still has no particular expertise or knowledge when it comes to electoral politics, and he’s still a fucking asshole.

  50. 50.

    Geminid

    @TheTruffle: Republican turnout in 2020 got a trump bump. It wasn’t quite big enough for him to win, but it was enough to knock out some good Democrats who flipped House seats in 2018, including Xochitl Torres-Small (NM), Joe Cunningham (SC), and Kendra Horn (OK).

  53. 53.

    Ruckus

    @Dan B:

    It may be that a lot of people understand that vlad is all in. He’s actually risking everything with this war. And he seemed to have zero understanding that Russia is a country run on corruption and  lying, and that being so, everyone (at least most everyone) lies to him as well and is corrupt. I’d bet that most of his military and citizens do not want to or are willing to die for him. If you doubt this look at the lines of cars trying to leave the country when his last buildup was announced. Sure, some left this country to avoid the draft during Vietnam, but there weren’t miles long lines and 100% full planes full of people deserting their lives, because I’d bet many know that there is no resistance possible, there is go along or be shot.

  54. 54.

    Geminid

    @FelonyGovt: Yes, and Dems might win a couple of those California districts back this year.

    Except for veteran Minnesota Congressman Colin Peterson, I think all the Democrat’ 2020 House losses were in districts flipped in 2018. Petersen’s rural district had been getting redder and redder, and he was living on borrowed time politically.

  55. 55.

    Ruckus

    @TaMara:

    I agree with you for all that’s worth as well.

    Rethuglicans have shit the bed, and have zero idea that’s unacceptable. None of this started with SFB but he made it OK to be completely batshit insane.

    I look at what the opposition is doing as a guide. Many of their far right candidates have been doing extremely bad in public. And the reactions and poling numbers do not add up. Many of the current party leaders on the rethuglican side are seemingly looking at defeat. I believe that if we can get turnout we will win.

  57. 57.

    James E Powell

    @schrodingers_cat:

    House progressives need to STFU until after the election.

    House progressives need to work on getting re-elected & helping other Democrats – progressive or otherwise – to get elected.

    Republicans never have to deal with shit like this.

  58. 58.

    James E Powell

    @Geminid:

    I’m sure he already has an alibi ready if it turns out he is wrong.

    Moore will blame Democrats for running a campaign different from the one he wanted them to run.

  60. 60.

    Tazj

    @Geminid: I have to say I’m somewhat surprised by the performance of DeSantis in those debate clips. I’m thrilled but I’m surprised. I thought he would be a smart ass liar but in one clip he had no answer at all when asked whether he would complete his next term.

    In the debate clips I’ve seen, Crist is clearly better. I have no idea what it will mean for the election but DeSantis looks bad, like a dumb bully and I enjoyed seeing it.

Comments are closed.