Both the British Chief of the Defense Staff and NATO’s Secretary General issued statements regarding Russia’s dirty bomb agitprop. The responses are pitch perfect.
A statement on the Chief of the Defence Staff’s call with the Russian Chief of the General Staff, General of the Army Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov: pic.twitter.com/0OTbnTIoLv
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 24, 2022
Spoke with 🇺🇸 @SecDef & 🇬🇧 @BWallaceMP about #Russia’s false claim that #Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory. #NATO Allies reject this allegation. Russia must not use it as a pretext for escalation. We remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine.
— Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg) October 24, 2022
More on this in a bit.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Strong people of our indomitable country!
Today is exactly 8 months of full-scale war. What has been achieved over this time?
We have defended the independence of our state – and Russia cannot change that already. We are liberating the Ukrainian land step by step. Donbas, Kharkiv region, Kherson region are now heard. But Zaporizhzhia region and Crimea will be heard as well – the time will come and all of Ukraine will be free.
Ukraine is breaking the so-called “second army of the world” – and from now on, Russia will only be a beggar. They are begging for something in Iran, they are trying to squeeze something out of Western countries making up various nonsense about Ukraine, intimidating, deceiving…
Never again will Russia be a subject that can dictate something to someone. It no longer has the potential to dictate. The world sees that. Russian potential is being wasted now on this madness – on a war against our state and the entire free world.
There was gas influence – not anymore. There was military influence – it is evaporating. There was political weight – now there is an increasing isolation. There were ideological ambitions – now there’s only disgust.
And this is a very important change in the configuration in our part of Eurasia – the more of its potential Russia loses now, the more real freedom all peoples will get both next to Russia and within its borders. Ukraine – first of all.
On February 24, the Kremlin could not even think about it, although they should have. But now, on October 24, there is no Russian official or propagandist who does not understand where all this is going for them. They started to recall 1917 long ago. The feeling of failure in Russia is getting stronger.
But, realizing all this, we have no right to relax. We still have to go the way to Ukrainian victory. This is a difficult path.
We’ll have to pass this winter, which will be the most difficult in our history. To do the necessary part of the work in autumn, winter and spring in order to get the desired results for the state. To maintain the maximum mobilization of our partners for the sake of the struggle for freedom and not allow our common enemy to split the global pro-democracy coalition.
This is what we do, all Ukrainians, Europeans, all people of the world who value freedom.
I held another meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today.
We help the active actions of our warriors on the frontline, provide them with everything they need, strengthen the protection of infrastructure facilities, and establish defense against missile and drone threats.
The military, intelligence, and government representatives delivered reports. Separately and in great detail, we are dealing with the system of territorial defense.
I addressed the people of Israel today in the framework of the Conference on Democracy, organized by Haaretz newspaper. This is a very important media – the oldest newspaper in Israel.
There I presented the Ukrainian point of view on the rapprochement between Russia and Iran, on why this rapprochement became possible and what threats it poses to our peoples. I called on Israel to join other democratic countries that already support Ukraine.
We are preparing for very important events tomorrow. The first is the parliamentary summit of the Crimea Platform. Dozens of partner states, hundreds of politicians and public figures. This will be another step in our preparation for the de-occupation of Crimea.
The second event is a summit in Germany dedicated to the reconstruction of Ukraine. We are doing everything to get the necessary resources for the restoration of our country right now, for the development of the social and economic sphere right now. And I sincerely thank all our partners who support Ukraine in this work.
And one more thing.
Today the world celebrates United Nations Day. It was on this day in 1945 that the UN Charter entered into force. It was not written and adopted as something ritualistic – it is not an empty formality. It is one of the basic documents that should work to maintain peace and international legal order.
It should work. And it will work. In particular, we are achieving this through our struggle against illegal and unprovoked Russian armed aggression. Everyone who tries to restore peace for Ukraine is also fighting for peace and security to be possible for all other peoples on earth.
And I want to thank Mr. António Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, for our cooperation, for the fact that he truly defends the Charter of the United Nations and global peace.
We have already achieved good results together – this is the release of our prisoners who were held in Russia, this is the grain export initiative, which makes it possible to alleviate the acuteness of the food crisis in the world, this is multifaceted cooperation in UN structures. Thanks for all your help with this! And I believe that we can achieve even more.
Thank you to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! Eternal glory to our warriors! Eternal glory to our strong people! Eternal gratitude to our friends!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments regarding the situations in Bakhmut, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia:
BAKHMUT/1215 UTC 24 OCT/ RU continues heavy bombardment along the Forward Edge of the Battle Area. Indirect fire from tanks, mortars, artillery and RU Close Air Support/Strike Missions hit the settlements of Bakhmutske, Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/VSTSl3LCJh
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 24, 2022
KHERSON/2015 UTC 24 OCT/ RU is reported to have released and armed the convicts residing at Kherson’s Prison No 90. UKR air defense is reported to have downed a Ka-52 attack helicopter on 23 OCT. Precision strikes continue on RU units and crossing points. pic.twitter.com/hvDunGfKRg
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 24, 2022
NUCLEAR ROULETTE: Sources confirm that RU troops continue a campaign of intimidation against the technicians and administrators of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. Employees have been coerced into signing open-ended employment contracts with Rosatom, the RU atomic energy agency. pic.twitter.com/LtidUODEuE
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 24, 2022
Someone issued an open challenge to find the Russian war criminals who are doing the targeting of Ukrainian civilian residential areas and civilian infrastructure. Bellingcat took up the gauntlet and did what it does best!
Scourge of the Russian intelligence services, Christo Grozev, has spent the last several months piecing together the team responsible for programming Russian cruise missiles launched at targets in Ukraine, frequently hitting civilian infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/gKpSZbFczu
— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) October 24, 2022
In the early hours of Monday, 10 October 2022, Russia pummelled Ukraine’s largest cities with missiles killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 100, according to Ukraine’s national emergency service. Russia has boasted about the surgical precision of its cruise missiles and claimed the attacks on 10 October targeted Ukraine’s military and security command centres and the national energy grid. However, open-source evidence shows that multiple missiles struck non-military targets, damaging residential buildings and hitting kindergartens and playgrounds.
The 10 October attacks marked Russia’s largest coordinated missile strikes since the beginning of the war. Yet the destruction didn’t end there. Missile strikes continued the next day with at least 28 launched on 11 October. The strikes left large numbers of civilians in Kyiv, Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Dnipro with no or sporadic access to electricity.
Cruise missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure continued into a second week on 17 October 2022, when Ukraine reported shooting down three cruise missiles flying towards Kyiv. On the morning of 18 October, new missile attacks were reported in at least three cities leaving some of them with no electricity. As of 18 October 2022, international prosecutors were investigating the targeting of civilian buildings and critical civilian infrastructure as potential war crimes.
Despite hundreds of open-source images and videos showing the flight and deadly impact of cruise missiles, little is known about who exactly is responsible for setting their targets and for programming their flight paths. Attribution of the programming of the flight-path of these allegedly high-precision weapons is relevant as the deliberate or indiscriminate targeting of Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure could constitute potential war crimes.
Following a six-month-long investigation, Bellingcat and its investigative partners The Insider and Der Spiegel were able to discover a hitherto secretive group of dozens of military engineers with an educational and professional background in missile programming. Phone metadata shows contacts between these individuals and their superiors spiked shortly before many of the high-precision Russian cruise missile strikes that have killed hundreds and deprived millions in Ukraine of access to electricity and heating. The group, which works from two locations – one at the Ministry of Defence headquarters in Moscow and another at the Admiralty headquarters in St. Petersburg – is buried deep within the Russian Armed Forces’ vast “Main Computation Centre of the General Staff”, often abbreviated as ГВЦ (GVC).
Most members identified by Bellingcat and partners are young men and women, including one husband-and-wife couple, many with IT and even computer-gaming backgrounds. Some also worked at Russia’s military command centre in Damascus in the period between 2016 and 2021, a timeframe during which Russia deployed cruise missiles in Syria. Others are recipients of various military awards, including from Russian President, Vladimir Putin.
Bellingcat approached each identified member of this clandestine GVC unit with an offer to confirm or deny our findings, and with a list of questions including who selects the targets and whether the civilian casualties are the result of computational error or intentional targeting of civilians. One senior officer, reached by phone by a reporter from our investigative partner The Insider, hung up as soon as he found out with whom he was speaking. All but two of the other military engineers either did not respond to calls and text messages or explicitly denied working for Russia’s armed forces or denied even knowing what GVC was, despite many being shown photographs in which they are seen posing in military uniform with GVC insignia. One of the engineers did not deny their affiliation to this unit but indicated they could not safely answer the questions we put to them, and thanked our team for alerting them to the upcoming publication. Another member shared with us, on condition of anonymity, certain contextual information about how the group was tasked with manually programming the sophisticated flight paths of Russia’s high-precision cruise missiles and several photographs of their commander Lt. Col. Igor Bagnyuk. This individual also provided group photos of the GVC computation group posing in front of a Ministry of Defence building in Moscow.
Method of Identification
The identification of this clandestine group within the Ministry of Defence was made by parsing through open-source data of thousands of graduates of Russia’s leading military institutes that focus on missile engineering and programming, in particular the Balashikha-based Military Academy of Strategic Missile Forces near Moscow, and the Military-Naval Engineering Institute based in the Pushkin suburb of St. Petersburg. A starting hypothesis was that these leading military institutes could be a training ground for at least some of the officers currently programming Russia’s most sophisticated long-range missiles.
Bellingcat analysed leaked employment or telephone entry data on these graduates available via Russia’s underground data markets. This allowed us to discover that some of these people were referenced in phone contact lists, obtained from various data lookup Telegram bots such as Glaz Boga and HimeraSearch, as working at GVC (Главный Вычислительный Центр) or the Main Computation Centre of the Armed Forces of Russia. Notably, all of these military missile engineering graduates with a GVC reference linked to their phone numbers in these apps were registered as living and working at Znamenka Street 19 in Moscow — the official address of Russia’s Armed Forces General Staff.
What is the GVC?
There is no public information linking the Main Computation Centre of the Armed Forces of Russia with the programming of cruise missiles. The function of the GVC has been opaquely described in military publications as “providing IT services” and “automation” to Russia’s armed forces. Despite its long history (according to Zvezda, a TV outlet affiliated with the Russian armed forces, it was established in 1963), sparse public mentions of this institute exist in present-day Russian media.
A rare example comes in the form of a 2018 award to a member of a military choir signed by Colonel Robert Baranov, named as the ‘director of the Main Computation Centre of the Armed Forces of Russia’. In 2021, a website focusing on Russia’s Volga Region reported that Baranov, who hails from the Republic of Chuvashia, had been promoted to Major General by presidential decree. The corresponding decree naming Baranov can be found on the Russian government’s website.
One of the engineers we identified as working for GVC received a “certificate of gratitude” from President Putin in 2020, according to his resume on a freelance job posting. However, Bellingcat was unable to find this man’s name in either of the publicly available listings of Russian recipients of the award from that year. In the same posting, he describes his education as “automated systems with a special application”.
An aggregated review of the educational and professional background of the people affiliated with GVC based on telephone contact lists shows that most of them graduated from either the Academy of Strategic Missile Forces (and in particular its Informatics Systems subsidiary in Serpukhov) or the Military Naval Engineering Institute. Some had prior military service as navy captains or ship engineers. Others had prior civilian work experience as corporate IT specialists or game designers.
How we Linked the GVC Team to Cruise Missile Strikes
Given these highly specialised technical skills, it seemed plausible that the GVC may be linked to programming the flight paths of Russia’s cruise missiles. Therefore Bellingcat obtained phone metadata records of the highest ranking individual publicly named as its director: Maj. Gen. Baranov. This method is similar to that employed by Bellingcat to track and trace the poisoners of Russian opposition politician Alexey Navalny, with data purchased from brokers who commonly offer such services. While this method would be impossible in most countries, Russia’s black market for data has helped journalists and activists piece together numerous significant investigations into the country’s military and secret services in recent years.
An analysis of 126 phone calls from 24 February to the end of April 2022 showed a correlation between significant Russian cruise missile attacks in Ukraine, and incoming calls prior to the missile strikes coming from one particular number that we identified as belonging to another senior officer working at the GVC. This officer is identified via phone contact listings and leaked residential databases as Lt. Col. Igor Bagnyuk, and was registered at the same address as the other known GVC officers at Znamenka 19.
Much, much, much more at the link!
I want to briefly come back to Russia’s dirty bomb agitprop. Whether it is the primary objective of Shoigu communicating this, his telling it to the US Secretary of Defense and the Defense Ministers of the UK, France, and Turkey and then having the content regarding the dirty bomb leaked is an influence operation. Not against the US government, nor the British, French, or Turkish governments. Rather it is intended to hook ultra-wealthy, hyper-online influencers like the Starlink Snowflake and his friend and sycophant David Sacks. Musk and Sacks have spent weeks parroting Kremlin disinformation and agitprop and freaking out about the imminence of nuclear war. The purpose of the dirty bomb agitprop is to get people like Musk and Sacks to bite, then have their tweets and other statements on the topic amplified by their reply guys until their responses are pushed into the mainstream discussion in the US regarding Ukraine, the US’s support for Ukraine, etc. I’ll be monitoring Sacks’ and Musk’s twitter feeds to see if they take the bait. I’d be very surprised if they don’t bite.
Someone asked for a link to my post from month’s ago about what I thought was going to happen in the midterms. I can’t find the post with a quick search and don’t have time tonight to go spelunking through my archived posts. So if someone has it bookmarked, please put the link in the comments. Thanks in advance.
Update at 8:40 PM EDT. Not sure if this is what people were thinking of when I referred to doing a front page post delineating where I think we’re at, but this post captures my thinking.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Patron’s Twitter account hasn’t put up a new post today, but Yarrow sent me this last night:
If you can believe it, I met someone more popular in Ukraine than President @ZelenskyyUa — meet the mine-sniffing canine @PatronDsnsn! He’s found 236 mines, saving thousands of lives. pic.twitter.com/Z8HMbVY4D1
— Rep. Eric Swalwell (@RepSwalwell) October 23, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok, which mirrors his tweet from last night about the money raised through the sale of the Patron stamps by UKRPOSHTA:
@patron__dsns Відвідали притулки для тваринок разом з @igorsm75 та @ukrposhta 😊❤️ #песпатрон #славаукраїні #патрондснс
The caption machine translates as:
Visited animal shelters together with @igorsm75 and @ukrposhta 😊❤️ #PatrontheDog #SlavaUkraini #PatronDSNS
Open thread!
sab
I am glad my German Shepherd is not alive to see this, because she was mostly a calm sensible dog, but she hated jack russell terriers with a passion. And Patron is a jack russell.
Predjudices are not useful.
dmsilev
Obligatory “thank you” for keeping this up.
Opinions on the “US should negotiate with Russia” letter from the House Progressive Caucus earlier today? Seems misguided at best to me.
sab
@dmsilev: Sometimes the progressives are idiots. Mostly they are on our side.
Kent
@dmsilev: Complete unserious dipshittery.
Not one of them has a single coherent proposal for what a “negotiated” settlement would look like.
How many Ukrainians are they going to propose be subject to Russia’s permanent reign of terror and genocide through conquest in order to polish up their liberal cred? A million? 5 million? 20 million
How about we give Alaska back to Russia in exchange for them leaving Ukraine? That is a proposal that the US has the agency to implement.
Mike in NC
@dmsilev: Terrible idea.
schrodingers_cat
@sab: Putting a knife in the back two weeks before a crucial election is a fine way of showing that they are on our side.
Gin & Tonic
@sab: In a different time they’d have been called “fellow travellers.”
Gin & Tonic
As I mentioned in one of the downstairs threads, that idiotic letter was issued early enough in the day that people in Ukraine could read and react to it. Universal condemnation mixed with derision is the best description I have.
SpaceUnit
@Kent:
Yeah, there’s not a single concession you could put on the negotiating table that wouldn’t be a shameless abandonment of principle.
So of course Republicans would be all in.
Alison Rose
Dang, major kudos to Bellingcat et al for that work.
Yeah, considering Musk appears to have the brainpower of an anesthetized gerbil, I won’t be surprised if he leaps at the agitprop. Being such a pickme for a genocidal terrorist isn’t a good look, dude.
On a lighter note, today I read the new biography of Zelenskyy by Steven Derix (it’s sort of a combo bio and abbreviated Ukrainian history) and this bit early on made me laugh:
I texted it to my mom and she responded, “We Jewish mothers are like that.” I can confirm.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Grumpy Old Railroader
@sab: Jaypal Letter. Ayup. Would like to have someone explain the logic behind the letter cuz this ol’ dirty-neck brakeman doesn’t get it
Martin
@Kent: Yep, all of this. Pretty disappointed in them.
Ukraine is committed to retaking their country. They’re perfectly capable of asking us for a negotiated settlement.
Meanwhile, we’ve invested trillions of dollars to make sure the #2 military in the world couldn’t challenge us, and Ukraine is glad to do the work to destroy that military. All we have to do is take that equipment that we invested trillions of dollars for the sole purpose of destroying that military should the need arise and give it to them.
There was nothing simple about any military escapade the US has gotten into in my entire life, but this is simple.
Anonymous At Work
Coming winter predictions are showing it to be a mild one in Ukraine and a warm one in Europe. What will it mean that UA and RU forces aren’t in a deep winter and Europe isn’t panicking over heating costs?
Origuy
As part of Moscow’s attempt to consolidate the occupied territories, the Russian Orienteering Federation executive committee met to discuss establishing regional federations; apparently in the Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” there are already groups wanting to start the process. They haven’t heard from anyone in the Kherson or Zaporizhzhia regions for some reason. That’s not surprising; other sports federations are probably doing the same thing.
What’s really interesting is the second point. They are looking for people with various skills including orienteering to “assist in teaching citizens the specialized skills that are necessary during a special military operation in Ukraine.” In other words, they want to outsource the training of their new conscripts so that they don’t get lost. Minutes of the meeting (PDF in Russian.)
Three orienteers are listed among the Ukranians who have died fighting the occupation.
Geminid
@sab: There are around 97 members of the House Progressive Caucus, and only 30 of them signed that letter. Ruben Gallego of Arizona was one of the caucus members who didn’t sign, and he made a pretty good short and sharp rebuttal.
But the letter was promoted on what appears to be the Caucus’s official website and Twitter account. I’ll be interested in how this matter is treated in the next Progressive Caucus meeting. That meeting probably won’t be held until after the midterms.
Dan B
@Grumpy Old Railroader: Jayapal used to be my rep. She’s great but this demand for negotiations is a completely crazed and idiotic move. You don’t “negotiate” with bullies or terrorists, you stop them. Do you say to AL Quaida let us talk and we’d like you to please kill fewer people?
In addition they lay out zero conditions like cease fire, UN inspections, and Red Cross access to POW’s. Numskulls!
Carlo Graziani
The dirty bomb accusations are an op of some kind, but I’m not sure you’ve called it right, Adam. It seems as if it would be easier to feed such accusations through back channels, rather than running them directly through the DOD/UK MOD/NATO public bullshit-stripping filters at maximum volume.
On the other hand, I don’t have an alternative theory about what the Russians are trying to accomplish that doesn’t seem idiotic. It looks like a totally idiotic play. It’s as if they have completely misjudged the reception of the message, whatever purpose the message was supposed to accomplish.
The Pale Scot
Russia’s Medvedev Threatens Defense Industry Arrests During Tank Plant Visit
Kristine
I received my stamps a few days ago along with a couple of illustrated envelopes and a foot or so of gold and blue ribbon. Glad the proceeds are helping.
Gin & Tonic
The backtracking and ass-covering has begun:
ETA: If you have to issue a “clarification” of a letter within hours after issuing the original letter, then the letter was a fucking mistake, at best.
Andrya
I posted my reaction to the dipshit Progressive Caucus letter at the end of yesterday’s thread (warning- I was basically foaming at the mouth, multiple F-bombs). I was extra angry that my representative, Ro Khanna, was one of the culprits. These people need to hear from us ESPECIALLY if you are in their district. I suggest the following questions:
(I have temporarily abandoned my usual practice of not capitalizing “russia” and “putin” in case anyone cuts-and-pastes my text).
I’m also going to write to Nancy Pelosi, a stalwart supporter of Ukraine, to ask her “can’t you make sure that your representatives are better educated than this?”
As Another Scott sometimes says “Grrrrr…”.
The Pale Scot
The dirty bomb BS could be a prementive move to cover up their tactical nukes miss firing if then decide to use them. Why would they be any better maintained than all their other kit?
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya:
You know I’d be the last to whitewash the putin regime, but the degree of repression in the USSR was not different. Sentencing dissidents to psychiatric hospitals was the “gentle” approach, compared with the Gulag.
bbleh
@dmsilev: @sab: @Kent: et al. et al.: I do not understand that letter AT ALL. I don’t understand it intellectually, as a matter of policy, or as a matter of politics (so far as I can tell, there is not a left-wing “peacenik” contingent of any note as regards Ukraine).
@Carlo Graziani: about all I can come up with is just another attempt to stir up generalized “nuke panic,” perhaps as much or more for internal political purposes (showing “toughness” against harder-line adversaries) as for external ones. But as to external ones, they may have been reading recent US media stories like “support for Ukraine wanes among Republicans” and thinking that talking about “dirty bombs” might spook the rubes and/or give ammo to their allies in Congress.
John S.
@Gin & Tonic:
Jayapal should know better. I’ve only lived in Washington for 5 months (in a neighboring district) and I already know there’s a sizable Ukrainian community here. My wife is a teacher and has a lot of Ukrainian kids in her classes.
It’s a fucking disgrace.
YY_Sima Qian
Of all the things that one can criticize about the Biden Administration’s foreign policy efforts (& there are many, especially from the Left’s perspective), Ukraine is not one of them. Putin has to be willing to negotiated for there to be a negotiated settlement. Ejecting Russia from all occupied Ukrainian territories (not entirely sure about Crimea) is a just & reasonable goal, & at this point a realistic goal. That would constitute complete defeat of Russia in this war. People in positions of power & influence should be careful about complete defeat of Russia being regime change & dismemberment of the country, given Russia has a large nuclear arsenal.
As for the performances of Shoigu to his counterparts, it smacks of utter desperation for their Maskirovka to be so transparent. The only way Zelenskyy or anyone else in the Ukrainian leadership would use a dirty bomb is if they have suddenly lost their marbles & became suicidal. Using such a weapon on Ukrainian territory would see domestic & international support of their government evaporate overnight. The Ukrainian Armed Forces already have momentum on this side. We have discussed the limited impact even a tactical nuke would have on the currently battlefield, a dirty bomb would be even less useful. I don’t see anyone, including the straddlers (China, India, Global South countries) being convinced.
Carlo Graziani
@The Pale Scot: But in the end, it does nothing to change the box that they are in. In tactical terms, nuclear weapons can change nothing for the Russians on the ground now — they are simply militarily useless to them. And as weapons of intimidation, the only thing that they are guaranteed to accomplish is to bring NATO into the fight. So it’s more saber-rattling.
I sincerely hope that Austen made some very definite threats of his own in private. I’m convinced that it is vital to maintain psychological dominance over the Russian leadership, to exploit the weakness of their bully-coward outlook. I’m pretty sure they will not respond to reasoned entreaties.
Adam L Silverman
@dmsilev: I just saw this as it’s been a busy day. You want to know one of the reasons I’m exceedingly pessimistic about what’s going to happen in the midterm elections? It’s because these folks never miss an opportunity to shoot themselves in the foot right before an election. This is the stupidest, most self defeating garbage I’ve seen in a very long time.
Medicine Man
@Kent: I think the lack of coherent proposals is WAD, because once you identify the starting point of the Russian negotiating position and start asking who makes compromises, the capitulation arguments start making themselves.
A lot of these “DIPLOMACY!” wails are the international equivalent of “we must be the reasonable ones” at the expense of a nation fighting for its life.
(None of this is directed at you. I’m just venting.)
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: That meeting will be held in the lame duck as the Democrats prepare to turn the House over to the GOP because of stupid shit like this.
Andrya
@Gin & Tonic: I agree that the USSR was tyrannical, and undoubtedly wanted absolute control of information, but the technology of the time made them been less efficient. Underground samizdat manuscripts did circulate. Andrei Sakharov was sentenced (repeatedly) to internal exile, and arrested and force fed when he did hunger strikes, but he was not sentenced to prison/solitary confinement as Navalny is. And he did eventually get his wife medical treatment outside russia. I find it quite scary that modern information technology makes it possible for tyrannies to be far more effective than they were historically (Stalin had no better tool than a card file).
If you prefer, I’ll just say worse than Yugoslavia under Tito or Vietnam today- dictatorships that allow a little wiggle room.
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya: One Sakharov does not balance the millions who died in the Gulag.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to be before I post something intemperate.
NotMax
Both curious and troubling the allegation about Ukraine comes smack in the middle of nuclear war drill season (both NATO and Russia currently conducting their own exercises as we speak, AFAIK, as they have annually at this time of year for decades). Back door diversionary tactic as cover for emplacement of other than the usually temporary deployment of manpower and ordnance?
Aussie Sheila
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you once again Adam for your updates.
As for the Dem Progressive caucus statement re US support for Ukraine, words fail me.
It’s a pity they don’t put the same effort into reform of the US franchise and the terrible no good US health system.
Truly terrible both on the merits, and the politics. If the republicans take the House, they can f around with funding for Ukraine, all the while pointing to this idiocy. Honestly, the US left is unbelievably bad at politics.
bbleh
@Carlo Graziani: In tactical terms, nuclear weapons can change nothing for the Russians on the ground now — they are simply militarily useless to them. Concur. About the only possible use I could see is if Ukraine were to create logistical choke-points or a massed military formation that might present a tempting target (which one presumes they’re being as careful as possible not to do), and even then the costs likely would exceed the benefits, although it’s not a given that the internal decision processes within Russia would behave entirely rationally.
The one thing that worries me is, the costs of a second nuke would be far less than those of the first. That is, if the threshold is crossed, it’s the ol’ slippery slope
And re Austin, one trusts he has the advice of very professional psychologists along with everyone else (and he strikes me as the kind of guy who would listen). And yes dominate, but also don’t leave them feeling like they have nothing to lose. We respect you, really we do! I love Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and … uh … all your talented programmers …!
Villago Delenda Est
The fuckwits of the WaPo: “could create pressure on Biden”. Yeah, that’s a sure thing, dipshits. Nuke the Village from orbit; only way to be sure. BTW, this talk of the Ukrainians using a “dirty bomb” on their own territory is ludicrous, because they’re winning the war, and Putin is losing. Besides, the Trilateral Agreement of 1994 returned all the nukes on Ukraine’s territory to Russia. Ukraine doesn’t have any nukes. This is the most ridiculous “false flag” fraud yet.
Tony G
@Kent: Huh. “Progressive” assholes. I thought that I respected that group. I guess, as usual, I was wrong. The time for negotiation would have been BEFORE Russia launched its invasion and started its war crimes on February 24th, but Putin showed no signs of interest in negotiation back then. What was interesting (in an appalling way) was that Putin didn’t even bother with the traditional issuing of ultimatums prior to the invasion. There was literally nothing to negotiate at that time because Putin was not asking for or demanding anything. Instead he made that speech just before the invasion in which he didn’t even mention NATO and, in effect, stated that Ukraine had no right to exist as a sovereign nation. So, yeah, to hell with AOC and her “progressive” cronies. It’s so depressing. The Democratic Party is, at least, not fascist yet, but they’re not much better.
Peale
@Tony G: His opening bid was “You give me 1/2 your territory and let Moscow pick you leader from now on”. If only the US had wised up and said “Ukraine, I guess that’s for the best.”
Princess
@Anonymous At Work: sounds muddy to me.
coin operated
@Villago Delenda Est:
Wanted to nitpick this point…we’re not talking conventional nukes. We’re talking dirty bombs, and there’s plenty of RBMK waste material available for that.
That said…agree with everything else you said. Ukraine has zero reasons for a WMD event. Just pure agitprop as pointed out by Adam above.
Mallard Filmore
@YY_Sima Qian:
As a simple nobody ejecting electrons into the internet, I don’t see Ukraine allowing the Kerch bridge to stand, even if they let Russia keep Crimea. How useful is Crimea to Russia with no irrigation water from Ukraine (and no Russian soldiers using it as an invasion route)? Many days ago, I read here that Crimea was an unloved step-child when Khrushchev gave it away.
Tony G
@Tony G: I hadn’t heard about that “progressive” letter, so I did a quick search and found an article about it on “Commondreams” by “Medea Benjamin” — another worse-than-useless attention-whore who really needs to go get a minimum-wage job at WalMart. Jesus. I tend to think of myself as a “progressive” because I don’t like to see the rich getting richer and the poor suffering and dying — but when I see some of these entitled performative clowns I can understand, on a visceral level, why many people who are NOT rich and powerful — people like my father who busted his ass to work his way up from poverty to a crummy job and a tiny house — come to hate what’s called “The Left” in this country. Get those kids off my lawn!
Fake Irishman
@Aussie Sheila:
it’s ok to be pissed about the letter, but I doubt it’s going to move the needle much one way or another.
And can we please not dump on House progressives for failing to reform the us voting system or healthcare? They have passed multiple bills involving lots of committee time, floor time and political capital doing both things since 2019. (For the people act, Build Back better) The Inflation Reduction Act had three major health reforms in it; two biggies on the wish list for progressives ((drug negotiaton for Medicare and caps on drug pricing for seniors) and one that they generally liked (higher ACA subsidies)
coin operated
@Mallard Filmore:
Calling Gin&Tonic…this is in your wheelhouse (I remember you posting something to this effect)
zhena gogolia
@SpaceUnit: Not Republicans, “progressive Democrats,” including Jamie Raskin.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: I am not trying to second guess a master, but I was wondering how older Ukrainians might react Pres Z saying this will be the hardest winter ever, so harder even than the Holodomor and losing so many Ukrainians to Stalin.
Best wishes, and no worries if you don’t have time to answer.
Tony G
@Peale: That’s right. Putin was FORCED to invade because he didn’t get the proper respect. I feel sorry for the guy.
zhena gogolia
@The Pale Scot: I love how everyone used to think Medvedev was “liberal.”
Lyrebird
@zhena gogolia: Yes, seeing Raskin in the photo was an unhappy surprise. I still have enormous respect for him, but I will try to call my own Rep. ETA: and politely say, none of this nonsense!
Pretty confused. I am very confident that neither Jayapal nor Raskin is on any kind of Kremlin payout scheme. Not Tulsi Gabbard territory here. I guess that years from now we will learn more.
Peale
@The Pale Scot: I kind of like the idea of arresting the people who can build the weapons (albeit poorly and inefficiently) and replacing them with people who don’t know how to build weapons at all. Its somehow, IDK, poetic.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: Yeah. Very strange analysis.
Chetan Murthy
@zhena gogolia: One thing that a number of twitterers (Julia Davis, Kamil Galeev, probably others) point out, is how many of today’s rabid genocide-mongers and Russian imperialists, were “liberals” in the 90s and early noughties. They point out that being a “liberal” in Russia is entirely compatible with being an imperialist who has the obvious “elder brother” (will beat you to death if you don’t agree with him) attitude towards all residents of the “near abroad” (which is defined as expansively as they desire. They also point out that almost all of these “liberals” are also from the Moscow/St Pete region.
Galeev has pointed out that Navalny falls into this camp, too.
Some of these guys wanted democracy for “the Moscow region”, which is … great(?) But they don’t want democracy for Yakutsk, or Sakha, or Ingushetia, or Ichkeria, or … Ukraine. What they want for those places, is the same imperialism as any other Russian conservative.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@dmsilev:
You’re being kind. It was fucking stupid for them to hand the Kremlin some easy propaganda. Talk about an unforced error and right before the election.
I hope their constituents scorch them over it. Either way, fuck’em.
zhena gogolia
@Lyrebird: There’s a kind of peacenik rhetoric on the Left that is not taking the situation seriously enough.
zhena gogolia
@Chetan Murthy: No, I will not equate Navalny with Medvedev.
Medvedev was never a liberal.
Nemtsov was a liberal. He was slaughtered.
If this analysis is lumping Navalny with Medvedev, it’s worthless.
I don’t find Galeev very well informed.
PJ
@Fake Irishman: There are important races in states like Ohio and Pennsyvlania that have significant Ukrainian – American populations. Some of them might in the past have voted Republican but responded to Biden’s strong defense of Ukraine (and Republicans’ stated plan to cut off aid to Ukraine if they get power), and will now see headlines stating, “Liberals Urge Biden to Negotiate with Russia” – the WP already used this headline!. “I should have known, the Democrats are no better than the Republicans”. That’s a lot of lost votes.
Tony G
@Lyrebird: That’s right. I wonder whether the Holodomor has the same place in the collective memory of Ukrainians that the Holocaust has for Jews? There would be almost nobody now who would have a direct memory of the Holodomor, but I wonder whether that is something that people would remember as a group — i.e., that grandparents or great-grandparents had suffered through it about 90 years ago. The thing is — Stalin lived for more than 20 years after that crime, and the Soviet Union persisted for more than 30 years after Stalin’s death. Maybe the memory of it was sent to the memory-hole. I don’t know.
Aussie Sheila
@Fake Irishman: Yes, I understand the role of the Senate in blocking these reforms, but I stick to my point re the haplessness of the US left.
The lack of even minimal ideological coordination across the Dem party is an institutional failure, imho.
Of course there are factions in every political party in every part of the world, but after hearing all my goddamned life about how the US the guarantor of liberal democracy across the world (even if I and everyone I know treats this as ludicrous), it is disheartening that the only centrist democratic Party in the US , the Dems, have virtually no internal party discipline, even over such fundamental issues as the franchise.
It is truly shocking, and actually quite scary, because you are likely to lose a fair bit of whatever voting democracy you have left over the next few years, and I have no doubt that right wing and even centre right parties elsewhere where are looking on with interest.
I despair.
zhena gogolia
@Tony G: They still remember the Holodomor.
Tony G
@Lyrebird: There is a certain kind of “Leftist” who assumes that anything the U.S. does in foreign policy is, by definition, wrong. I’ve known people like that. I am very disappointed to see that these “progressives” are in that category.
PJ
@zhena gogolia: there are a lot of leftists who support Russia because the US is bad, and whatever is against the US’ interests is good. There are also a lot of leftists who think that we (the US, Europe) should just give Russia whatever they want, no matter what they do and whom they do it to, so long as it is not them, so that “we” can have “peace.”
Dan B
@Fake Irishman: That’s what doubly disturbing. The Progressive caucus has done great work. Thus makes them look like pissy fools. They shit themselves in the foot.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: One thing I noticed when read the list of Reps who signed the letter was that they are all in safe districts. I’m not saying they were all thinking of this, but if Democrats are in the minority the Progressive Caucus will be a relatively stronger part of the Democratic Caucus. Some might have this in mind though, particularly the four or five signers who are DSA members.
I hope Gallego and the other 65 Progressive Caucus members who didn’t sign push back hard. Their leaders are implicating them in a scheme that amounts to selling Ukraine out
Amir Khalid
@Dan B:
Not sure if typo.
PJ
@Aussie Sheila: Since you are not familiar with American politics, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt, but the only way to get rid of the filibuster currently is if ALL Democratic members of the Senate (that includes Manchin and Sinema) support it, and the votes just aren’t there. Too many Senators place their own power over the ability to vote.
Dan B
@Amir Khalid: Grand spell checking failure but… at least it’s a memorable vision. Lol!
Carlo Graziani
OK, just a minute. Cease fire. The WaPo article is a hatchet job.
Here’s the letter. I’ve read it. You should too. On it’s own terms it’s basically harmless. It says in several places that the US should continue to support the war effort, and also recognizes the “outrageous and illegal” nature of the invasion, as well as the likely forlorn chances of a successful diplomatic outcome. It calls for attempts at diplomacy nonetheless, on humanitarian grounds, and, crucially, “in cooperation with our Ukrainian partners”. The worst thing you can say about this letter is that the timing isn’t great, because right before an election words take on meanings that can be reprogrammed by others.
For example: That shitheaded WaPo “reporter” Abutaleb, expecting that nobody would actually go and read the fucking thing, opens her piece with “A group of 30 House liberals is urging President Biden to dramatically shift his strategy on the Ukraine war and pursue direct negotiations with Russia, the first time prominent members of his own party have pushed him to change his approach to Ukraine.” What the fuck? Is that how you read that letter? Is there a different letter? That’s the one she linked in her article.
There’s an agenda at work here. Maybe it’s clickbait, or maybe it’s grudge. Good faith it’s certainly not.
Andrya
@Gin & Tonic: I never suggested that one Sakharov did justify the gulag. I was contrasting maximally awful dictatorships (Stalin, North Korea, putin’s russia) with awful but not maximally awful dictatorships (Vietnam, Tito). If I had to choose between living under Khrushchev/Brezhnev or under Stalin, I would certainly choose the former. My point was that, amplified by information management and surveillance technology, putin’s regime is in the maximally awful category.
Aussie Sheila
@Geminid: At this stage, Pelosi and the Dems leadership needs to slap them down hard, publicly. What are the ever f….ing internal rules of the Dems that permits a bunch of elected Members to go out and make up their own foreign policy statement two weeks before an election?
What a pity the Dems didn’t have a bit more ideological spine and fortitude when Bush2 declared illegal war on Iraq. F ing unbelievable.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
With respect, Carlo, *no*. Just as with the Amnesty International report, bits of this letter will be excerpted and used by Putin’s feculent underlings to argue that even the US wants a ceasefire, and gosh why would you want to give UA arms — that will only prolong this war that even the US wants to end.
Words matter, and these mumblefucks fucked up.
Dan B
@Carlo Graziani: Thanks for checking. Jayapal is typically extremely sharp as is Jamie Raskin. Ugly to know the WaPo has turned into a rag of chaos without, seemingly, gotten any Russian oligarch moolah.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Can we start at the beginning, please? We are experiencing a Category-3 meltdown here because the Washington Post published a false and tendentious story intended to damage the Democrats less than two weeks before the mid-term elections. If you want to be pissed off at someone, could you please start there?
Aussie Sheila
@PJ: Thank you for that. I actually know how your Senate filibuster works, but I appreciate your input. My point stands. On such a fundamental issue as the franchise, the most basic guarantor of peoples’ rights in a democracy, ignoring the filibuster altogether on that issue should have been, and should be always, the way forward. Embracing minority rule, in order to guarantee electoral minority rule seems less than ideal, and shows a fundamental lack of seriousness on issues of democratic accountability. This issue should have been settled long ago within the Dems caucus. A Sinema and Manchin should not be possible in a properly run, democratic Party. Without some basic agreement on fundamentals like the franchise, there can be no real program going forward. People don’t know what they are voting for. Simply a bad show all round.
Ymmv.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: No, the letter was the beginning, and it was wrong to have written it, wrong to have sent it. And yeah, I read it too. And yeah, they start with all sorts of nice words. But those nice words don’t change the fact that no diplomacy will happen until one side or the other changes their minimum demands. Once we understand that, we can see that this letter is saying “convince UA to settle for less.” B/c how do you convince Putin to settle for less?
Tony G
@PJ: Yeah. Those idiots. I’ve known various Ukrainian-Americans throughout my life. There are significant communities — communities that stick together — of Ukrainian-Americans in New York City and Philadelphia, and, I’m sure, elsewhere as well. Back in the late seventies I had a close friend in Philadelphia who was “Ukie” as she called herself. Her parents had lived in Ukraine before and during World War Two. She learned from her parents to equally hate the Germans and the Russians. That is a voting bloc that you don’t want to piss off with a performative gesture like those clowns just did.
Fake Irishman
@Aussie Sheila:
yes, there are plenty of threats to democracy here in the USA and our system has some pretty big problems. And yes I’m terrified. And many U.S commentators have been worried about these issues for years.
But your statement about the Democrats lacking ideological discipline is ludicrous. The party is more ideologically coherent and disciplined than it ever has been. Clean energy, voting rights, expanding health care, women’s rights and reproductive freedom. Raising the taxes on the rich. Public health spending. All these things Democrats are pulling in the same direction on. That’s why it has passed a stunningly ambitious agenda that rivals Obama’s very productive first two years in office with far smaller majorities than he had. And the left has been a part of that: the progressive caucus has generally been a very productive part of negotiating better proposals instead of taking its ball and going home.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: She says it well:
Dan B
@Carlo Graziani: Having read the letter I still have objections. Why press Biden to more diplomacy at this point? In a hot war its important to get behind the leadership and not provide distractions. And they use selective quotes by both Biden and Zelenskyy. They quote Biden as saying he supports diplomacy but imply he’s not doing enough. F that shit. Then Zelensky who says “a mentally healthy person chooses diplomacy.” Do they not realize that strongly implies that Putin is not “mentally healthy”. How did they miss this clear point? It seems like they believe Zelensky is being hypocritical. The letter is not as bad as the WaPo piece implies but it seems completely unnecessary at this time. They could have simply said that they support Biden and Ukraine and want vigorous diplomatic measures to continue. Thus letter implies they’re not vigorous enough. It also implies they don’t understand how brutal Putin is.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: A different response:
These Dems took a golden opportunity to wave the flag of Patriotism, while simultaneously supporting Allies, standing for Freedom, and all sorts of other good things, and instead provided a buncha sound bites for our common Enemy. And they did it TWO WEEKS before an election, as you rightly point out.
This was poltical malpractice: all that was required, is to NOT SEND THE FUCKING LETTER. I mean, Ruben Gallego managed it, why couldn’t Jamie Raskin? And Rep. Jayapal could tell that it was hopeless, b/c she had to walk it *all* back. All of it.
It was worse than a crime: it was a *mistake*. And the sort of mistake that anybody with an *ounce* of sense would have known not to commit.
As somebody said: this is the first and only just war most of us will see in our lifetimes. We’d better be on the right side of it. WHERE THE FUCK are these 30 Dems? FFS. FFS.
Fake Irishman
@Chetan Murthy:
FWIW, I didn’t read it that way at all. I just read it as “if there’s a reasonable way to get Russia to the table, we should encourage it.” Probably not the best time to release this, but it isn’t tankie bullshit.
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
That’s how I read it too; a veiled tankie (literally, as in Russian invasion/occupation of Ukraine with tanks is OK with them) missive to press Ukrainians to surrender. Because there is lot of that, in various vile flavors, in their favorite information spaces.
Also, there are two explicit references to direct one-on-one US/Russia negotiations: “including direct engagement with Russia”, and “engage in direct talks with Russia”. That can be interpreted benignly but it can also be, and is/will be, interpreted as a strong suggestion to negotiate a cease fire directly with Russia and forcing Ukraine to accept it by threatening elimination of support of Ukraine via a Progressive alliance with GOP partners.
Also, to help their favorite petrostate sell more fossil carbon to the rest of the world.
Sure, that’s a maximalist negative reading of the letter; Russian media/Russian State propagandists will be exploiting it to the max.
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy: Yes. It was a giant own goal, on an issue that should not be up for debate except in the free speech for idiots way that we all have to put up with.
Pelosi should come out and reiterate Dems unswerving support for Ukraines’ right to territorial integrity, freedom and democratic sovereignty. Now.
Chetan Murthy
@Fake Irishman: Anyone who isn’t an idiot knows that there’s only one way to get Russia to the table: crush them on the field of battle. Crush them. Crush them. Crush them. And that’s what these progressives could have said to Biden: they could have said: we want peace, a *lasting* peace, and for this, we need to crush Putin, bring him to the table begging for an end to war. President Biden, you need to do more, we need to know what we can do to help you more, to help Ukraine prevail in this war.
That’s what they could have said. It would have had the signal value of being *true*, too. And not stupid.
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: It *also* enrages me, because these progressives should know that crushing Putin is *essential* to preserving *our Republic*. That Putin is trying to destroy our republic. And FFS, Reps. like AOC should know better: they were fucking HUNTING HER on Jan 6. FFS, she should want Putin’s head on a fucking PIKE, not to make a peace deal with him!
Putin is gunning for my Republic, for my country. And I’m *enraged* that these progressives, whose *job* it is to protect my country, can’t be bothered to do their fucking job, instead being perfectly willing to allow Putin to mark a win. Fucking idiots.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Yes, she says it pitch-perfectly, for someone who has not, in fact, read the letter, which quotes no less an authority than Zelenskyy on the subject of ending the war, which “will only
definitively end through diplomacy.”
She also appears to believe that war aims are things that are carved once in stone and forever immutable, never to be reshaped by the exigencies or emergencies of war, and if one’s enemy shouts a statement of war aims at the top of his lungs he is to be taken at his public word, especially if it’s on Twittter or Telegram, and there’s certainly never any point in even attempting to privately show him a discreet exit when a full Gotterdammerung show is to be had.
Tone’s getting away from me, sorry. The WaPo thing has me extremely upset. Stopping now.
glc
@Carlo Graziani: I only read the letter, not the reporting. As far as the content goes, I noticed the same thing.
That does leap out to the eye. And on that basis it seems fair to read more into it than it actually says. It does not aim at clarity.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
Carlo, you’re an educated man: you can see with your eyes, hear with your ears. You’ve seen, that the longer this war goes on, the more genocidal Putin’s rhetoric becomes. So yeah, war aims can change, and Putin’s aims are getting worse: from just taking over “Little Russia” to *exterminating* Little Russia.
So yeah, war aims can change.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aussie Sheila:
You sure like to shit on Democrats a lot don’t you?
Matt McIrvin
@Aussie Sheila: A lot of this is, I think, happening because American antiwar progressives on Twitter and such see the effort to help Ukraine as the Iraq invasion all over again. They don’t trust the Democratic Party leadership because it included Iraq hawks. And if the Democrats had been able to enforce internal ideological discipline in 2003, the official party position probably would have been pro-war (it was a bad time all around; the ideological center of the party was way to the right of where it is now); it’s because the Democrats don’t have internal discipline that there were dissenters.
The Russian troll operations certainly understand these divisions. Witness how our old friend Bob in Portland (who I think was more a useful idiot than an actual paid agent) constantly claimed that the pro-Ukrainian line on Russia’s invasion of Crimea was just more lies from the people who sold us the Iraq war.
It’s simply very hard for a party in a congressional-presidential system with open primaries and FPTP elections to have internal ideological discipline like a party in a multiparty parliamentary system can. The Republicans actually kind of do, but it’s because a large fraction of the country has gone batshit insane and their beliefs can actually be dictated from moment to moment by the party’s propaganda operation. A center-left party can’t really do that.
Fake Irishman
@PJ:
I do worry about this some. But everyone remember how Puerto Ricans moving to Florida after 2017’s hurricane season and Trump’s terrible response elected Democrats statewide in 2018?
Also it’s not like Fetterman or Ryan signed the letter. Both of them have brands far different than, say, AOC.
Matt McIrvin
Anyway, if I had to guess, I’d say this “Ukraine will use a dirty bomb” business means Russia is planning to use a dirty bomb. They’re like our Republicans, right?
Chetan Murthy
Everything Dan Nexon lays out below was well-known *months* ago. It’s political malpractice to push for diplomacy, knowing all this. But hey, maybe they’re just *stupid*.
Fake Irishman
@Carlo Graziani:
I am more in your camp on this one, both in the letter and on going to bed.
(Everyone remember how a bunch of House Democrats from oil producing areas sent Biden a letter encouraging him to make sure natural gas had a part in the energy transition and he shouldn’t dump on it? No? Well, don’t worry about it, they all voted for the Inflation Reduction Act.)
Dan B
It feels to me that even an accurately reported version of this letter still implies that Democrats are weak. They just want everybody to be lovey dovey and hold hands and dance in a circle and then magically there will be peace and love. This may screw the brand for many people. “GOP is strength. DEM’s are the party of surrender. Did anyone with a remote understanding of public communication or marketing vet this?
Fake Irishman
@Matt McIrvin:
thanks for writing this comment better and more productively than I could and explaining how US political institutions make it hard to enforce discipline in a way that many parliamentary systems (including Australia!) do.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: For what it’s worth, I’m working from a model in which Putin is not the uncompromising wily hardass that we imagine him to be, but is actually desperately afraid that he’s about to lose everything, and that the stupid, pointless threats that we’re receiving are in a sense manifestations of that fear. I think that so long as the US and NATO continue to threaten him with retaliation he will not use nuclear weapons clean or dirty. He would take any deal offered him at any time, grateful to keep anything, while issuing vile threats the entire time.
So in good time, the UA will recover the Donbas and the coast, and then the Ukrainian government will have to decide whether recovering Crimea is worth the cost of another year of war. When the end-game approaches, some face-saving diplomatic “solution” will be found, and Putin will discover to his vast relief that it conforms to his current war aims, if he’s still alive by then.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
He has always interpreted signs of negotiation from his adversaries, as proof of their weakness, and attacked. That’s his M.O. What evidence do you have that that’s changed? The Balts have it right: he respects only strength.
Matt McIrvin
@Carlo Graziani: How does it modify this projection if the United States cuts off financial support for Ukraine in 2023, and maybe switches to an actively pro-Russia position in 2025?
Chetan Murthy
Some good news: RU fighter-jet mechanics still top-notch!
Aussie Sheila
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Only when they do stupid things. This was a very important thing, and a section of the Dems caucus did a very, very stupid thing. Two weeks before an important election.
I have a great deal of sympathy for rank and file Dems, and admiration for their energy and dedication. For your party apparatus, practically none at all. I can’t vote in your elections, but unfortunately decisions made by your electorate have dragged my country into war on at least three occasions with no justification whatsoever. While our elected leadership has been held somewhat accountable for a couple of these travesties, the reality is, when US foreign policy sneezes, the world often gets death and destruction whether they like it or not.
On this occasion, when for once, the US is doing absolutely the right thing, a bunch of politically idiotic US Dems comes out and muddies what should clear blue water between the Dems and every reactionary A hole in the wide world, more importantly, in a couple of swing states, two weeks before an election.
So yes, I can and will criticise, not because I wish ill on the Dems, but because unless they do better, everyone else in the putatively titled ‘democratic’ world will suffer in some way from the US disease.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Matt McIrvin: racism is so simple it builds unity. That’s the Republicans’ strength.
I agree with everyone here, this letter is beyond stupid.
ian
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t have a bone in this discussion between you and Carlo, but I found this sentence really strange
There are other people in this world who have fought or are still fighting wars against oppressors. Their acts of self defense for themselves are no less just. To give an example, the government of Ethiopia does terrible things to the Tigrayan people in their current civil war. Are the Tigrayans not right to protect themselves? Separatists die trying to take their ethnic groups out of the State of Myanmar, which oppresses all non-Burmese. Are their actions not just? There was war in the 1990s in East Timor with Indonesia, where the Timorese were genocided by the government of Indonesia. Was their resistance not just?
I think it is weird to consider only this war just.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aussie Sheila:
My comment wasn’t so much about this letter, but what you were saying elsewhere in this thread more generally about Dems
Chetan Murthy
@ian: Sorry, I should have said that it was the first and only one we’ll be able to choose the right side of. I mean, I think the Vietnamese war of national liberation waas a just war: only, we were on the wrong side of it.
For the first and probably only time in most of our lives, we have the choice to be on the right side of a just war. That’s the way I should have put it.
Chetan Murthy
@ian: I should add: I agree there are other just wars going on right now. Like the war against the junta in Myanmar. But ….. our country isn’t going to get involved there: that seems clear.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani:
What makes you think for a single second that putin will ever “take any deal offered to him”? Have you not listened to Adam, as well as folks like G&T, who have said repeatedly that putin will never be satisfied unless and until he either steals all of Ukraine or completely destroys it? Look at what the russians have been doing–bombing schools and playgrounds and hospitals, attacking the energy sector repeatedly. They are trying to force the whole nation to its knees, because that is the only thing putin will be happy with. Where does this new reasonable soft-hearted putin come from?
Also, Zelenskyy and everyone else in his government and the military have made it clear over and over that they are not interested in ceding any land at all. He mentions Crimea in his nightly addresses all the time. Ukrainians have shown they are absolutely willing to fight for their land, and that includes every inch of it. The “In Ukraine” Facebook page had a post today that said “Latest poll by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows that 86% of Ukrainians believe that it is necessary to continue the armed resistance, even if russia doesn’t stop shelling Ukrainian cities.” Does this sound like a nation that would readily agree to let part of their country go? Not to me.
Aussie Sheila
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): With greatest of respect, I actually do know quite a bit about US history and politics. Studied it at university, taught by US lecturers, and I have travelled in the US and have had quite deep connections with my professional counterparts in the US. Union organising. And with the greatest of respect, you and many others might do a bit better if you knew as much about the rest of the world, as the educated world knows about you.
Kent
@Carlo Graziani: Honestly, whether or not the WP accurately reported this letter from House progressives is almost beside the point.
The very fact that they sent a letter suggests that they felt that the White House was somehow on the “wrong track” when it comes to Ukraine and that Biden needs to do some sort of course correction. Otherwise why send any letter in the first place? What is the purpose? Grandstanding? Trying to make themselves relevant?
Honestly, Biden had done a masterful job of keeping Ukraine in the game and keeping the EU and NATO allies on board with support for Ukraine. I don’t think he needs lectures from a bunch of House progressives on “diplomacy”
If there was some acceptable deal or end point to this war I suspect Biden would have been on it. Clearly there is not. This is like talking about an offramp with the Nazis in spring 1944 and “negotiating” how much of France and Poland they get to keep.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aussie Sheila:
Really? Because it sure sounds like the Democratic Party you’ve described before was the one from like 20+ years ago
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Goku, she’s not completely wrong. We all know about Cinemansion, but remember that it was reported that they were merely the front-men for a *bunch* of Dem Senators who were uncomfortable with ditching the filibuster (b/c they liked their power&perks). The “Great Sort” is still in-progress, and we still have a lot of folks on our side of the aisle who don’t realize that “bipartisanship” is just a way to get stabbed-in-the-back.
She’s not as wrong as you make her out to be.
But frankly, I think she doesn’t go far enough. I think that many, many, many rank-and-file Dem voters are *this close* to voting R, and it doesn’t take much to make them switch. Or not vote at all. I mean, we talk about “we outnumber them”, but more and more, I wonder if we really do, and fear we do *not*.
Chetan Murthy
ellenr
I think this is how they are thinking. More like Syria – why didn’t we react to Syria in this way? They’re STILL being bombed by Russians on behalf of their own government. They may not have the general understanding of how bad WWII was. I visited Halle, East Germany, in 1981. Most of the city was still rubble.
But they should not make the same type of error as Bush I era politicians during the Gorbachev days: responding to prior year’s environment.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
And how do we know those reports are accurate?
There’s nothing to support this notion AFAIK
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: As I said, it’s a model. I believe that he’s a type: a bully. Bullies are, invariably, cowards. The models of Putin’s behavior that everyone is working from are based on how he acted when he was riding high: before 2022, he never once had to confront a correlation of forces capable of dealing him a setback, let alone destroying any of his domestic accomplishments or putting his regime and his power at risk. This conditions how everyone sees him, incorrectly, in my opinion.
Certainly he escalated constantly. Mob bosses behave the same way, when they are ascendant, and their power cannot be challenged. And the loyalty that they command is unquestioned, so long as the fear that they can produce continues to paralyze their opponents, and their lieutenants can also make effective use of that fear themselves.
But it all depends on the appearance of strength and success and invincibility, and it always breaks down when success starts to falter and failures start to pile up. And that’s the point when the “Putin always escalates” model becomes a very misleading guide, in my opinion, because in the end when you strip a bully of his power, what you have left is a coward. He can’t escalate, because he can’t intimidate NATO. NATO is not Chechnya, or Georgia, or Syria. NATO can intimidate him.
This is what I’ve been trying to get at in recent posts, when I’ve been writing about “threatening” Putin, and “establishing psychological dominance”. I’m not trying to be mindlessly belligerent. I’m pointing to what I believe is the weakness in his psychology: the bully’s cowardice. The reason that he threatens and aspires to escalation is that he only understands the relationship of the dominated and the dominant. This being the case, and Russia being a shitpot third-rate military power and we being NATO, we should take advantage of this situation and make damn sure that we are the dominant party of this particular relationship, by taking every opportunity to threaten him and his army and his power, should he step out of line with nukes, say.
The main benefit of doing so, other than deterrence, is to make him ever more afraid than he is already, and more amenable to seeing the exits that he’s shown.
Chetan Murthy
@ellenr: It is a very, very fair point to note that when brown people die under imperialists’ bombs, Dems rarely are moved to act. But I don’t think that’s what drove these progressives. B/c they never mention anything about that in their letter. Not a peep.
Honestly, I still can’t fathom what drove them to commit this massive act of political malpractice.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
Yes, and this is what the CEE countries have been saying: he responds only to demonstrated strength. Offer negotiations, and he takes that as a sign of weakness. You have to have overwhelming strength, to bring him to the table to negotiate honestly. Can you see now why any attempt to even *hint* at diplomacy at this point is counterproductive? Why to ask for it (from Biden) was an own-goal?
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
We know Chris Coons was …. not supportive of nuking the filibuster. We know that Feinstein wasn’t either. And then, yeah, there reports that there are a bunch of other Dem Senators. That’s the genesis of the push to get every Dem Senator on-the-record, as being for breaking the filibuster: b/c too many simply don’t want to do it, but they also don’t want to be *seen* as protecting the filibuster. They like their privileges, but don’t like the heat that would come from being seen publicly that way.
Aussie Sheila
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I take Chetan Murthy to be saying that in the absence of strong, delineation between parties, particularly in an 2 party, simple majority electorate like yours, people are apt to be swayed hither and thither on ephemeral issues, while being able to ignore the fundamentals. Now, that doesn’t mean that conservatives don’t win undeservedly in other democratic polities.
They do. However the US electoral system is particularly inimical to basic democracy, and has very very weak class politics.
This is a very dangerous combination.
Apologies Chetan Murthy if I misstated your point.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aussie Sheila:
There IS a “strong delineation” between the two parties.
One side supports actual personal freedoms like privacy and bodily autonomy. The other doesn’t
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila: You’re more generous than I was being. I meant that a lot of Dems are pretty weak, pretty cowardly, b/c they can be swayed by a little bit of “oh those black people, they’re rioting” and “trans girls in the wrong bathroom!!” and on and on.
In short, their committment to inclusion, diversity, to *justice* isn’t very deep, and pretty easy to erase.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Explain why after the 2020
George Floyd protestsFascist Police Riots, nothing was done *anywhere* to end qualified immunity. Explain why in most cities police are funded *more* than before those protests.Middle-class Dems like this situation: they want *order*, and they really DGAF if black people are extrajudicially executed by their
policehired death squads.Explain why California, a state run by Dems, is having *such* trouble relaxing zoning so that more housing can be built. And why Dems in California are standing in the way of that.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose: The reason I believe this about Putin is at #115. It’s admittedly a contrarian view of how he thinks, but I don’t like crowds that much anyway :-/
As to Crimea, long wars exhaust people who fight them more than people who watch them. The Ukrainian government may really have to make a very painful choice: fight on potentially into 2024(!) for the sake of Crimea, or get a settlement for the International frontiers (including the “rebel” Donbas provinces illegally seized by little green men in 2014) in 2023, without Crimea, and begin rebuilding the country. I can’t say how that decision would go, but a lot of people are dead, a lot of families need reuniting, many people are tired of the war, and much as they loathe the Russians, not many of them were living in Crimea to begin with. I could see it going either way.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
Whatever
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy: I understand. Many electorates are like this. Christ, Australians were terrible on the refugees coming by boats.
But strong party identification and strong competent party apparatuses can often overcome these issues. It is not up to the average Dem voter to do better.
It is up to Dem leaders to build better funded, deeper party structures in at least the key swing states, including imho, Texas. I know this shit takes money, but god knows the money that the Dems can sling at no hopers like Amy McGrath is eye watering. Money spent in between your almost constant election cycle would be better spent than throwing a bunch of dollars at problems a month out. I also understand that rank and file Dems do their best, and again I am full of admiration for them. But they deserve much much better from their apparatus and leaders.
PJ
@Carlo Graziani: I think the Russians will exit Crimea before they exit the Donbass. As the Ukrainians get closer, they will be able to target more effectively supply routes to Crimea. I don’t know if the Russians will risk any more of their Black Sea fleet to supply Crimea, but they will also become easier targets. So they either pull their troops out, or have them surrender when the food and ammo runs out. (The Donbass, on the other hand, can be more easily resupplied, even with effective bombing by the Ukrainians, b/c Russia is right next door.)
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila:
One can at least make the excuse that these refugees aren’t Australians — that it’s merely a question of treaties and international law. And human decency. But in the case of the extrajudicial murder of Black Americans, we’re talking about *Americans*. People who can trace their family trees back long before the Civil War (thru the white masters who raped their Black female ancestors) — as someone once put it, slavery and Jim Crow were the subjugation of one set of cousins by another set of cousins.
There’s something (to me) particularly disgusting about this, and the way that so many Dem voters prefer voting for their current police forces, over fixing this, is …. loathsome. I also particularly hate the way it all gets dumped into “defund the police” when all that would need to happen is to end qualified immunity and ensure that every po-po that broke the law in the way they treated a suspect, was prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
But they don’t want that: they like their “order”.
YY_Sima Qian
The thing is that the letters from the group of Progressives does not offer meaningful suggestions as to what the Biden Administration should be doing differently wrt Ukraine. It was an entirely unnecessary exercise.
If the Progressives want to pressure the Biden Administration on foreign policy, here are a few areas:
The 1st 2 probably would not precipitate a bad faith article from WaPo, though, & the 3rd probably would.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@YY_Sima Qian:
What do you think of the CCP deciding not to release GDP numbers “indefinitely”?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: I’m not giving you an argument about how “he only responds to strength”. That’s a very crude, 1950’s-style argument, like Curtis LeMay talking about the Soviets. I’m talking about something else entirely. I am arguing that Putin is constantly afraid now. That he fears he’s on the verge of losing everything.
The entire point of the argument is the exact opposite of what you infer from that fragment. It is that a fearful Putin is not the implacable, unyielding enforcer of iron war aims that the consensus depicts him as. Rather, that he can be intimidated into yielding on those war aims, because he is, fundamentally, a coward, so long as we maintain psychological dominance over him.
Do you see the difference?
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Carlo, the problem is, you have no *evidence* for your theory of his mind, whereas those who argue that he only respects implacable strength have heaps of evidence. Heaps.
Aussie Sheila
@YY_Sima Qian: Couldn’t agree more.
I am terrified about a new ‘cold war’ between the US and China.
God knows what a future US administration will do, and I include both Dems and republicans in that fear. While Oz can find new trade relationships elsewhere in the world, I am really worried we will be dragged into a ‘hot’ war with China. If that happens, we are toast. And I have no illusions about the US coming to our rescue.
The oft touted ANZUS treaty is worth sweet F all. It only commits to consultation between us and the US.
I fear competitive chest beating between the two US parties on this use very much, while having no illusions about the current regime in China.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aussie Sheila:
Oh come on lol
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: That’s fair, in part. What evidence there is is very indirect. I need to think more about this.
However, as to the “heaps” of evidence for Putin’s behavior based on his past behavior, that’s what we call “out-of-training-sample inference” in machine learning. You’re drawing inferences about Putin-behavior and psychology in circumstances that he has never experienced before, based on his previous record, even though his learned responses make zero sense now . Those heaps of evidence are not worth much, in my opinion.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: NATO expansion, all the various kinds of weapons that the West is supplying to Ukraine, and in all those cases, he yelled that it would be escalatory for us to do that, that he’d be forced to retaliate. But when we went ahead and did it, he shut up and took it.
Aussie Sheila
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Did you not read Chetan Murthy’s point upthread about the Iraq war? I will repeat what I wrote, on foreign policy I fear the Dem leadership as much as the republicans. Are you old enough to remember the Vietnam war? Iraq wars 1&2?
I am, and so are millions of people world wide. Grow up. Better still, hit the history books, especially post WW2 US history. You might learn what the whole world knows.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Aussie Sheila:
Your comment I quoted came across as both siderism. I’m sorry, but it’s not 2003 anymore
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Goku, it sure isn’t. In 2003, the rest of the West (our allies) could tell themselves that this was a momentary aberration, and surely soon enough the adults would be back in charge. And in due course, Obama arrived, and the world was so *fucking relieved* they gave him a Nobel Prize for *breathing*. But then 2016 happened, and our allies had to do the math, which lead to the conclusion that if America could commit this madness *twice*, they could do it again and again and again. That’s the new world they live in: a world where, sure/sure, Joe Biden is doing a great job of foreign policy. But that can change, b/c we’re no longer reliable.
Nations don’t look to personalities (in their allies): they look to the elite cadres that run the system. And what our allies see in us, is an elite that is falling apart.
A number of econ, foreign policy and international relations luminaries have made the above points. Including Brad Delong.
YY_Sima Qian
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It has just been released, 3.9% real growth for Q3. Pretty off from the beginning of the year target of 5+%, but somewhat higher than average/consensus prediction of 3.4%. Delaying reporting certainly was a bad look, but apparently all of the Party Congress delegates (which comprises of all of the key personnel in the Party-State apparatus) have been in a “closed loop” to minimize the chance of a COVID-19 outbreak.
Not too surprising, & signals continued significant weakness in the economy, particularly domestic demand. Not all that different from most other economies in the world, it will be a cold winter all around. Right now a lot of the hot money are exiting the country, & at least some of the wealthy are looking to shift assets abroad & emigrate. However, I would not get too caught up in short term swings of the stock market or bond prices. Global hot money chase after short term profits, after all. Their idea (& that of the Chinese rich) of “good” & “liberal” economic policy are those that support their asset prices, even if at the cost of exacerbating economic imbalances that threaten medium to long term socio-economic stability. Sound familiar?
China faces a daunting economic transition, only partially attempted so far, pivoting from investment & real estate development to consumption. That means wealth transfer from the state to the people, & income redistribution from the rich to the poor & middle classes. For all of those nostalgic about collective leadership of Jiang/Hu years, it was the paralysis of the collective leadership that allowed such imbalances to fester & balloon, & Xi & the regime has only made limited progress in the past 10 years addressing them. I don’t think a collective leadership would be able to attempt the difficult & painful reforms. A strong man leader might (not a given), & whether Xi succeeds , or fall victim to the inevitable pathologies of strong man rule, remains to be seen.
One should note that the favorite Chinese sources of foreign reporters & analysts are those urbane & internationally minded rich & well connected, this will color their reporting on China. For them, the Jiang/Hu years were the happiest days. The rising water did indeed lift all boats, but the rich & the connected benefitted the most, & it was a time when they could flaunt their wealth & connections w/o fear. This lasted some years into Xi’s 1st term, until the anti-corruption campaign took hold & changed the atmosphere. Go into the rural areas & the lower middle & middle class neighborhoods of 2nd/3rd/4th/5th tier cities, support for Xi’s economic policies are very strong – poverty alleviation, establishment of basic health insurance & pensions, infrastructure construction that connected hitherto cut off communities, etc. Many of these measures had their tentative beginnings in Hu’s 2nd term, but he did not have the power (under the collective leadership structure) to make more far reaching reforms.
I too am very worried about what the future might bring for China during Xi’s 3rd term (& most likely 4th), in addition to the future for the US, & the incipient US-China Cold War.
charon
@Geminid:
In AZ Gallego is widely thought being groomed as a primary challenger to Kyrsten Sinema in 2024.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
Aussie Shelia voiced the ridiculous notion that Dems and Republicans are essentially the same when it comes to foreign policy. They’re clearly not.
No offense, but I’m getting really tired of this doom and gloom
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Let’s imagine that the Dems are uber-competent at foreign policy and the GrOPers are …. well, what they are, which is bastards and incompetents. Now imagine you’re an ally. You know it’s a lead-pipe cinch that sooner or later, the GrOPers will get the trifecta, or at least the Executive Branch. And then they’ll unleash unholy hell in their foreign policy.
It doesn’t *help* that the Dems are (as we stipulated) extremenly competent, if the GrOPers can take power and fuck it all up on the regular, does it?
On that model, our allies must always be prepared for us to fuck it up.
Aussie Sheila
@charon: It is to be fervently hoped he succeeds. Honestly she is worse than Manchin imo.
He strikes me as the generally corrupt stupid pol that I can recognise, if I squint hard, although he would never get away with his parliamentary voting shenanigans in a proper democracy. But Sinema is truly a piece of work. Her contempt for her voters could be seen from across the Pacific. Terrible, really terrible, especially for the people who no doubt worked their butts off to get her elected. She deserves to lose very badly, pour encourager les autres.
YY_Sima Qian
@Aussie Sheila: At least the new Labor government is Australia has been more circumspect in not actively fanning the Cold War flames in both Canberra & DC. I will also say the Labor government’s foreign policy in the Pacific Islands has been positive & effective, a sharp contrast to the malign neglect of the previously Liberal government.
The only time the US notices a place such as the Solomon Islands is when it switches diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC, & wants to sign a security pact w/ China.
Aussie Sheila
@YY_Sima Qian: Yep. Australia has a large Chinese/Australian population, centred in a handful of key electorates. The ALP historically has been sympathetic to China and its economic aspirations, particularly after WW2, and has a relatively decent record in that regard. Our conservative parties have offended Australians of Chinese backgrounds with their bellicose bloviating, and it doesn’t find a natural home in the Australian Labor Party, given the history of support for China against Japan.
Captain C
@Matt McIrvin:
When in fact the Russian invasion is really more like the US invasion of Iraq in this case, with an even flimsier rationale.
Geminid
@Aussie Sheila: Its not the Progressive Caucus doing the letter, just 30 out of 97. It’s most of Caucus leadership, though, and the Caucus website and Twiter account are promoting and jusytifying it.
Aussie Sheila
@Geminid: I understand. But I can’t get over the unforced error of it.
I consider myself a socialist. A democratic socialist. Everything in the historical tradition I have lived in and fought for over 50 years tells me that Putin’s Russia must be defeated on the battlefield. First, for the sake of the Ukrainian people, their homeland and their culture.
Second, because Putin represents the kind of international reaction that Russia is famous for. When I read and hear US socialists and their supporters in Congress lending even a sliver of dissent against the absolute defeat of Russian reaction, I am furious. Absolutely furious, especially because when it comes to unjustified US aggression abroad, they are usually silent and useless. No socialist outside the US puts any weight on the support of US progressives, but at least they could refrain from fucking up the once in a lifetime chance for US arms to do some good for once.
Geminid
@charon: I’m pretty sure Gallego will announce a Senate run some time after New Years. That probably was not a factor in what he said today though. He’s just a very blunt, outspoken man.
I’m not so sure Sinema will run for a second term, but that’s another story.
I’m not so sure Sinema will
Geminid
@Aussie Sheila: It makes me pretty mad too. I tend to side with the more moderate wing of House Democrats on some issues, but I really like almost all the Progressive Caucus members. Anyway, the two wings of Democratic Caucus have worked together very well this Congress, and their ideological differences are often exagerated by their partisans.
I have a bad feeling about this letter, though. I really don’t like the timing. And while it is about one particular, vital issue, the letter may presage a more divided Democratic caucus in the next Congress, whether it’s in the Majority or the Minority.
Geminid
@Geminid: The statement Ruben Gallego made not long after the Jayapaul letter was released;
. Gallego was speaking to the central point of Jayapal’s letter: that a prolonged war would entail many risks. She implicitely raises the prospect of use of nuclear weapons. This was precisely the Russians’ intent in warning of dirty bombs, etc. They hope to spook people within the pro-Ukraine alliance into throwing in the towel. The letter shows that this strategy of nuclear blackmail works.
I have sensed a shift in the psychology of some people since Ukraine’s offensive successes last month. People who sympathized with Ukraine when it was just a scrappy victim are becoming alarmed now that it is starting to take back it’s territory. Never mind the mass graves that are being found, these people are concerned by Putin’s losses.
I’m just surprised and disgusted that 30 Representatives from my party would give voice to that attitude. They may have dressed their statement up with language affirming their commitment to Ukraine, but the letter’s effect is to condone appeasement.
Princess
@Aussie Sheila: “Dragged your country into war three times.” No. Your leaders decided to follow, which is on them and on you guys. The US has no capacity to force Australia into war.
Aussie Sheila
@Princess: Our leaders were and are responsible for their decisions to follow bellicose Dems and mad republicans into foreign adventures. You are right. Except in my country, the opposition to those wars wasn’t confined to a small and ignored rump. It consisted of the actual opposition party each time, at some electoral cost at first, it has to be said, at least in regard to the Vietnam war.
Here is the difference as I see it. In your country there appears to be no official opposition to any and every war your political elites, on a suitably bi partisan basis of course, create. Except now, of all times, a bunch of so called ‘progressives’ in the US HoR no less, make a spectacle of themselves and their party two weeks before a national election, on a matter and in a way which dismays every decent person from the centre right to the far left in my country.
We are all responsible for our own electoral choices, but where I live and vote, US foreign policy has met with determined opposition from a very broad coalition of forces. A pity the same cannot be said of the centre left within the US, which cannot even see a decent foreign policy when they are notionally, it appears, supposed to support it.
Pathetic.
Tony G
@Geminid: The old Will Rogers quote — “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.” It’s always been thus. When I was a kid the primary divide was between the southern segregationists and the northern Dems who at least gave lip service to civil rights. But this letter is bad, and I’m pissed off that representatives who I thought I supported participated in it.
Tony G
@sab: Yeah, I’ll still support the “Progressive Caucus” on most domestic issues, but this really pisses me off.
Tony G
@Geminid: That’s interesting. So fewer than 30% of the”Progressive Caucus” members signed that letter, yet it was placed on the “Progressive Caucus” website. I don’t know the internal organization of the”Progressive Caucus”. If it’s like any “club” that I’ve ever heard of it should have some kind internal “leadership” that would have to approve something like that. Maybe it’s like the Church of the Subgenius, where any random person can just anoint himself/herself as a member.
Gin & Tonic
Like Adam, I decided to log off and rack out early last night before I said something intemperate. Catching up on this thread over coffee this morning, I conclude that that was smart.
Tony G
@Tony G: (Old seventies joke. Sorry, kids.)
Geminid
@Tony G: Now I read that Mark Pocan, a signer, says that the letter was written in July. The Caucus website rleased a clarifying letter last night. So there was something going on in the first statement’s release. Rogue staffers? A faction within the 30 wanting to force the issue? A developing story, as they say.
Whatever that story turns out to be, a lot of damage has been done.
NotoriousJRT
@Gin & Tonic: Jayapal is my rep. I will be calling her office this morning to register my deep displeasure with this ridiculously stupid move.
J R in WV
@Lyrebird:
I’m pretty sure the photo is actually unrelated to the document under discussion, an example of poor journalistic standards. Shame on WAPO, but means Rep. Raskin may have little connection to the letter.⁰
The Moar You Know
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I would love to watch you make that argument in a country that is not America (and eat the blowback you get) but find it unlikely at best you’ll ever leave the country. Which is too bad. You might learn something.
lee
The GVC story is why a lot of the IC & SOF folks are so very serious about OpSec.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@The Moar You Know:
What, people in other countries can’t be ignorant about the nuances of American politics? In the grand scheme of things, in all the ways that count, Dems have a better foreign policy than the GOP. No contest. I would think the Trump years would have made that clear; Biden has basically halted all US drone strikes.
AS seems to be someone who has a lot of her beliefs about the US informed by the Iraq War and Bush years, as well as echos of the “the US is always the bad guy, no matter what” that pervades so much of the Left. Things have changed since the Bush years and the Democratic Party is much more unified and ideologically coherent than it was in those days.
Oh and leaving the country requires a lot of money, something I don’t have. Unless I were fleeing as a refugee
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Goku, I think you’re making a basic mistake here. You are writing as if Biden is all a foreign government needs to consider, when evaluating the Dems. But this isn’t how it works: foreign governments need to look for continuity and culture and …. *history*. So even if they believe that Biden is (tony tiger voice) Grrreat! (which I do), that isn’t enough, b/c remember Obama? And his drone strikes? And remember Hillary and how much of a hawk she was?
Other countries can’t count on individuals, and their horizon for judging the course of American foreign policy cannot be “one administration”, EVEN IF we grant that they’re going to ignore the GrOPers and focus only on the Dems.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
BTW, it has *always* struck me how aware people in other countries are, of American politics. And it’s especially stark when compared to how *little* we know of any other country’s politics (even Canada & Mexico). And that’s because when we catch a cold, everybody else gets the flu. Or worse. It’s actually the opposite of how you imagine it: everybody else in the world is on tenterhooks, worried about what America will do next, what fresh hell we’ll unleash on the world.