There is an undecided woman in our Pennsylvania focus group who in June, as a Fetterman/Shapiro voter, said "all I want is for Democrats to talk about abortion and only abortion from now until November."
Today, she's undecided because "all Dems talk about is abortion."— Nicky Frank (@NickyFrank30) October 21, 2022
We've had people in the Pennsylvania focus group openly lie about things we have them on record saying months ago.
— Nicky Frank (@NickyFrank30) October 21, 2022
Yes, they say "Oh I didn't remember I said that" or some stupid thing like that.
Really, what seems to be happening is that people base their opinions on what they think will not get them yelled at.— Nicky Frank (@NickyFrank30) October 21, 2022
Five minutes of PROUD INDEPENDENT MINDS complaining that they want every politician to read their minds and hand-craft policies to give them… the impossible: higher wages, fewer laws, more services, less inflation, and every goal to be achieved by the end of election week. One guy announces he *has* to be independent, because neither party says exactly what he wants to hear, and the other five nod along like bobblehead dolls. The only woman in the group says she ‘can’t’ vote for any politician who brings up abortion, because ‘sex trafficking is such a big issue in our state’ — more solemn agreement:
Video: What issues do unaffiliated voters care about this election? Senior Political Correspondent Rhonda Colvin sits down with members of the Coalition of Independent Nevadans to find out. https://t.co/gG2sasiiKc
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 25, 2022
i’m not a politician so can say freely that swing voters are dumb and dishonest to themselves and others and run on vibes https://t.co/bNkx46udk5
— world famous art thief (@CalmSporting) October 21, 2022
As I pointed out in "Our Own Worst Enemy," you can't get sensible signals about how to govern from people who just want entertainment. I mentioned Norman Rockwell's famous "democracy" painting here, and… pic.twitter.com/1HU52le6ZY
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) October 23, 2022
Yes, some of them are dumb, and some of them are liars, and I’ve decided my new mantra is a quote from Men in Black:
Jay: Why the big secret? People are smart, they can handle it.
Kay: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it.
All we can do is fight for the best, and prepare for the worst…
Governing as if there won't be a federal government next year https://t.co/YBkTTfgYtl
— chatham harrison is tending his garden (@chathamharrison) October 20, 2022
NotMax
“Independent” has long since passed its sell-by date.
Perhaps “unaffiliated?” (“Boneheaded” is a skootch too blunt.)
Elizabelle
At this point, “unaffiliated” is “low information voter.”
Some of these focus group types sound like attention whores.
oatler
Blue-dog voters in the style of Gabbard.
andy
The one thing that won’t remain “undecided” once this is all over is how much American men f*cking hate American women.
NotMax
@Elizabelle
Remember “The rent is too damn high?” Good times.
//
Elizabelle
@NotMax: Only vaguely. Thank dog.
Cameron
@NotMax: Say what you will about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, but at least it’s an ethos.
Mousebumples
Get Out The Vote.
This is crunch time – but hard work is more fun with friends. Join us for postcarding in about 2 hours. It’ll be a fun time, i think. 😊
cain
These seem like “I want a puppy” type voters, who don’t want to take care of it and is already tired of the high energy and pee accidents before they even get said pup.
VOR
That Men in Black quote is golden, right on target.
Elizabelle
@Mousebumples: Will do!
I am in awe of you doing all this postcarding with a toddler and infant in house.
Ohio Mom
I pride myself on being able to empathize, to see things from another’s view, even if it isn’t my view. To be compassionate.
But with these “independent undecideds,” it’s a brick wall for me. They make me so furious, all I can see is red. Just admit you like being clueless and don’t vote if you can’t do it halfway intelligently. Because somehow it doesn’t seem like they ever break for the Democrat.
Tim Ryan had a good commercial (maybe it is still running). It goes something like this: Ryan says he’s heard from a voter who agrees with a lot of what he says but there is this one sticking point…
Ryan shoots back: Are you married? Because a day my wife and I agree on half the things that come up is a good day! We break out the wine and celebrate!
And then the commercial ends with them making googly eyes at each other and their teenagers rolling their eyes in the background. It’s cute and heartwarming.
Ken
I’ve always felt “Speech” is the weakest of Rockwell’s “Four Freedoms” paintings. I think it’s the people looking up at the speaker as if he’s the greatest thing they’ve ever heard, instead of looking impatiently at their watches and thinking “when is he going to stop yammering so I can take my turn?”
Elizabelle
@cain: And that puppy is landing back in the shelter, first thing, if it …. acts like a little puppy. A baby dog that needs time and attention.
It’s not just about how YOU look with a puppy.
Ohio Mom
@Ohio Mom: * Making googly eyes and holding glasses of wine.
For some reason, I did not get an edit window.
Mousebumples
@Elizabelle: haha, thanks! We’re pretty strict on bedtimes, but that gives me a few hours to postcard after bedtime. And my toddler likes walking to the mailbox and putting up the flag – so a reason to go every morning is welcome! 😅
Baud
Has there always been this much of a gap between the ALCS/NLCS and the World Series?
NotMax
“If your indecision lasts more than four hours consult a physician.”
//
Kropacetic
Massachusetts designates such voters unenrolled. I, like MA voters, am registered that way.
Still, never any question which party will get 95 to 100 percent of my vote.
Jackie
@Baud: Not in quite awhile. Both series ended quickly. Had they gone six or seven games, they’d still be playing lol
Fri would give the winners of the conference(s) two days rest before the WS.
Elizabelle
@Kropacetic: Oh yeah. When I lived in California, I was unaffiliated too.
Speaking more of those who are just tuning in to the campaign now.
Or those who get their news through sketchy social media and all manner of nefarious work colleagues.
(I was shocked to hear my low information voter next door saying we need to get out of Ukraine. I doubt he could find it on a map, seriously, or knows Zelensky’s name. It was “where did that come from?”)
Kropacetic
Mission Accomplished. Let’s get a banner up on an aircraft carrier.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax:
Calling these stupid children “boneheaded” is an insult to boneheads.
ETA – me calling them “children” is also an insult to children.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Does he know that we’re not in Ukraine?
Jackie
Here’s some good news for Fetterman!
“The independent candidate for the U.S. Senate seat from Pennsylvania has just dropped out of the race, two weeks before Election Day, and is endorsing Democratic nominee John Fetterman, hours before the debate.”
He’s doing it to save America.
https://www.rawstory.com/in-the-interest-of-protecting-the-us-independent-drops-out-endorses-fetterman-ahead-of-debate/
different-church-lady
Well, at least we know they found genuine Democrats.
Baud
@Jackie:
👍
Furious Minion
@VOR: Sting: Men go crazy in congregations, they only get better one by one
Baud
@different-church-lady: Heh.
cmorenc
“democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried.” – Winston Churchill quote, and Winston was spot-on correct.
A deeply studied policy geek’s vote (e.g. our own David Anderson) counts just as much, not any more or less, than that of citizens who spend most of their free time following what the Kardashians are up to.
SpaceUnit
In my congressional district, which tilts reliably blue, 44% of voters are registered as unaffiliated, more than any one party. I think folks around here just like to call themselves “independent”. It’s a vanity thing. I am unaffiliated myself, though I vote straight D.
It’s also helpful if, say, your boss is dickhead Republican and likes to needle his subordinates over their politics. That was my case for a number of years.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Yeah, I phrased that wrong. But he was all “why are we spending $$ for that?”
His girlfriend, who actually will turn out to vote, is way more tuned in.
I asked this neighbor a while back if he was following the elections. He said “have you ever heard of the illuminati?”
I thought what a brilliant tactic that was to get someone to stop in their tracks. Although it was not said sardonically.
Kropacetic
@Jackie: So, that’s good. But how did this independent candidate see his race going a week ago? A month? Before he collected signatures?
Matt McIrvin
@Kropacetic: Massachusetts has semi-open primaries so not registering a party opens you to vote in either of them (as long as it’s only one!) I suppose there’s not much practical advantage to declaring a party aside from maybe wanting your favored party to target you with appeals. I’m registered as a Democrat but I can see the logic of not doing that.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud:
Well, if the Phillies hadn’t won the NL 4-1, and the fucking Yankees hadn’t been swept…
Kropacetic
@Matt McIrvin: Oh, don’t worry. The Democrats know where to find me. Deleting my 9,997th Katie Hobbs for AZ text.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
What this reminds me of more than anything is a scene early in “Tootsie”. Jessica Lange gives a speech about “what I’d like a man to say to me”. Dustin Hoffman overhears it, a few minutes later gives that exact speech, and gets slapped silly.
Elizabelle
@Kropacetic: Raphael Warnock will take up the slack!
UncleEbeneezer
Uncle Cosmo
@NotMax: Electoral dysfunction (ED): If an election lasts for more than 72 hours, consult your spin doctor.
SpaceUnit
@Elizabelle:
Yeah, the Warnock campaign is relentless. I love the guy and sent him some cash, but I’m getting about twenty emails a day. Plus texts. Damn.
ETA: Val Demmings is a close second.
Dan B
@UncleEbeneezer: Excellent news. Keep climbing up the crime ladder DOJ!
Uncle Cosmo
@cmorenc:
(Except that no one has ever found when and/or where he might have observed that – famously or otherwise. :^D )
Matt McIrvin
I think there are a lot of voters who just want to vote for whatever side they think is winning, and will come up with some rationalization for that.
Kropacetic
So that’s why Republicans aren’t I’m throw shit at the wall and see what sticks mode. Fabricate infinite nonsense non-solutions and we never get around to the right one.
Elizabelle
@Matt McIrvin: I think that’s the case, and why the MSM is so in the tank for the GOP at the moment.
Low info peeps without subscriptions are not going to be reading anything but headlines or catching the news in passing.
New Deal democrat
@different-church-lady:
“Well, at least we know they found genuine Democrats”
Well played, madam! Well played.
NotMax
@Elizabelle
Yes, yes I have. A phony and firmly discredited conspiracy plot about the French Revolution promoted in America by Rev. Jedidiah Morse (who lifted it wholesale from a contemporaneous work of fabrication by the Scotsman John Robison) in the late 1790s. By the turn of that century the bubble had burst and the hokum exposed.
Chance to mention Misinformation Nation: Foreign News and the Politics of Truth in Revolutionary America, which perhaps your local library can be urged to obtain.
About all Morse didn’t throw into the pot was “our precious bodily fluids.”
Kropacetic
Oh, also, that was definitely my thinking when I registered. Still, I’ve never exercised my option to vote in a Republican primary.
I suppose technically I’m also not fully on board with the Democrats. I have no realistic alternative. The Workers’ Party (Socialists) need to put in some ground work.
Alison Rose
At this point, I have less respect for independent voters than I do for Republicans.
And I have negative 1000000% respect for Republicans.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: If they do read the article, the “analysis” they cook up about why voters now think this or that can become the justification they give for why they’re voting for the winning side
Sort of the “nobody got fired for choosing Microsoft” theory of how to vote. You might be wrong but at least you’re repeating widely shared opinions.
MisterDancer
They do. They’ve been told, over and again, that they matter, and that only they (and the people they give a damn about) matter.
It’s not even just Conservative Media. So much of the news is about feeding the people who want “entertainment,” and damn the systems that are best when Politics Are Boring.
Kropacetic
Politics are only boring if you have no interest in how society is run or whether government helps our communities.
Captain C
@Elizabelle:
@NotMax:
“Neighbor, all I know is that anyone who mentions them and seems to be remotely correct either disappears, or changes like one of them pod people from that old movie, knowwhutImean? I just leave that subject alone. Sweet dreams!”
(Best delivered with a knowing grin and an eyebrow pop at the ‘knowwhutImean’ and another grin at “sweet dreams!”.)
O. Felix Culpa
Guess who saw the Veep on UNM campus today! Magnificent! She was speaking on reproductive rights and was, of course, fantastic.
I was also a poll watcher today. So heartening to see young and old streaming into the campus polling site for early voting, including a number of first-time voters. New Mexico has same-day registration, and the system worked well. Nice to live in a place where the [Dem, of course] government makes it easy for people to vote!
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Fuck Winston Churchill
(The quotes are great, tho)
cain
@SpaceUnit: I know. Rip my emails.
Baud
@Captain C:
Or a simple “Who told you about us?”
Steeplejack
@Jackie:
Both sides will be well rested and will play like shit.
Suzanne
At Casa Suzanne Noreste, we are getting ready for the Oz/Fetterman debate. SuzMom just got a text message from the Fetterman campaign, once again asking for money.
She just screamed, “I JUST GAVE YOU TEN DOLLARS TODAY, YOU ASSHOLE!”. In case you’re wondering why I am the way I am.
Elizabelle
@Suzanne: Thank you for the reminder.
Streaming free on the ABC station in Harrisburg.
Elizabelle
FWIW, C-Span has video of last night’s Crist -DeSantis debate. (And I have never heard DeSantis’s voice. Never. Thinking that may be a good thing …)
Also, C-Span footage of President Biden getting his bivalent vaccine. It’s C-Span.org
H.E.Wolf
Yes! What Mousebumples said.
I’d add that it tends to be folks who are comparatively privileged who avail themselves of the luxury to sit on the sidelines.
And I’m always happy to be proven wrong about that! :-) So please, everyone, show up where and when you can – if nothing else, the postcard-ers need music recs tonight – and pitch in. It’s going to make a difference!
p.a.
2 undecided voters at the election buffet, “The pulled pork sandwich with slaw and bbq bean side looks good.”
“But don’t you want the steaming pile of bear shit you have to eat with your hands!”
“I do see that, you’re right, let’s dig in.”
Elizabelle
Here’s the Tim Ryan ad “Are you married” re agreement with spouse/politicians. It is a good one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9eS22gqcxY
RSA
I’m lucky enough to have friends who have told me, at an appropriate time, “Don’t be a dumbass.”
Elizabelle
@O. Felix Culpa: Yay you for poll watching! It is important, in the early voting process too.
Did you have any situations where you had to report?
Captain C
@Baud:
“I assure you that most of what’s said about us is completely exaggerated. Most of it.”
Captain C
@p.a.:
Followed by:
“This bear shit is godawful! Why didn’t anyone warn me?!”
“I did. I told you it was bad and you shouldn’t eat it.”
“Yeah, well, it’s your fault I did.”
Another Scott
The “Coalition of Independent Nevadans” name sounds like an attempted rebranded “Silent Majority” to me. It’s funny that these collections of independent people just happen to always, always support GQP policies at the end of the day.
Why do we never hear about groups of “independent” voters who ultimately like Democratic policies and never would support GQP policies??? Why it’s almost as if the political coverage in the MSM in the USA is slanted against Democrats and their policies??!!
Grr…,
Scott.
Elizabelle
Aha. The WaPost, right now:
bbleh
Really, what seems to be happening is that people base their opinions on what they think will not get them yelled at.
Wait, what? You mean, people are vulnerable to social pressure? Perhaps even to the point of basing their voting choices on that rather than careful research of the candidates and their stands on issues? Well, consider me duly gobsmacked.
And once again, as to “swing” voters, I do not believe there are many swing voters at all. Nearly all voters lean one way or the other, and the choice they make is whether to actually vote the way they prefer or not to vote because they can’t quite bring themselves to do so.
Jinchi
Okay, but “non-partisan” is not synonymous with “undecided”.
When Rhonda Colvin asked the the people in that nonpartisan voters clip if they knew who they were going to vote for in the Senate race, they all raised their hands and enthusiastically replied ‘Yes’. And it seems perfectly reasonable that the (black/indian) woman left the Republican party when they chose the racist TFG as their nominee. That doesn’t mean she identifies as a Democrat now.
Spanky
@NotMax: “I thought the Illuminati were those lights you put out on Christmas Eve.”
Another Scott
@bbleh: I think TV makes it even worse. TV still has reverence in the USA. Most people, I would guess, are very deferential to the producers and hosts and try to be nice and not look like a crazy person when they’re in one of these focus groups. They sit up straight and pay attention. It’s all highly artificial. And people in that situation are easily manipulated.
I remember trying to do my absolute best when I was filmed (as part of my grade school choir) in B&W by the local community access channel. It was a big deal!
Cheers,
Scott.
Spanky
@Elizabelle: Throwing staff under the bus is a great look.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
The timing for the World Series is set in advance, and they won’t move it up by a few days if the league championships don’t go the full length. This year the NLCS was over in 5 games and the ALCS was a sweep, so there are some extra days off before the World Series.
It could be worse. Way back when, the leagues didn’t always coordinate their schedules, so one league could be finished a week before the other. The pennant winner in the league that finished first would sometimes play an exhibition game or three to stay sharp while waiting for the other league to finish.
O. Felix Culpa
@Elizabelle: Nope. Everything was well run and professional. No outside intimidation efforts and my Republican counterpart was a sweet old gentleman who didn’t seem infected by the MAGA virus and didn’t make any trouble.
Jinchi
You’re lucky. I keep getting texts from Herschel Walker and Ron Johnson.
persistentillusion
@Kropacetic: Fetterman is stalking me. I’m in Colorado.
Actually, I’m following his campaign because he, Shapiro and a couple of others have embraced this new model of communicating with supporters and I’m interested in how they’re doing it and will be more than interested if it works.
Suzanne
@Roger Moore: I am going to Philly next week for a work meeting and I cannot find a hotel room. I have to stay at one of my colleagues’ apartments.
Miss Bianca
@Elizabelle: “Released by staff without vetting,” eh?
Wonder who’s going to be volunteered to fall on the sword for that one?
lowtechcyclist
@Elizabelle:
I’d just pull out my copy of the Illuminatus! trilogy.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, … NASA.gov – EMIT:
There’s still a lot we don’t know about the sources of the gases driving climate change. Things like EMIT will help get us the information we need to make the efforts much more effective.
Cheers,
Scott.
sdhays
@Elizabelle: It was a really, really stupid thing to do, but I’m glad they’ve pulled it back and thrown “staff” under the bus. Whether it was actually staff or not, it very clearly wasn’t “vetted”, so withdrawing it is the right thing to do. Now I just want this story to go away and never speak of it again.
I took it in stride yesterday, but it was one of the few times I just didn’t bother reading the BJ thread on a topic. There was simply nothing good to say about it.
Roger Moore
@SpaceUnit:
Most of the campaigns are good about stopping sending you emails if you opt out. I just wish we didn’t have to. The default should be not sending emails beyond a followup to say they’ve received your donation and not selling your information to other candidates.
lowtechcyclist
@Roger Moore:
Damn, how long ago was that?? Admittedly, my memory of MLB only goes back to 1964, but I don’t remember a time when the leagues’ regular seasons didn’t both end on the same day. And when the LCSes came into being in 1969, they’d finish just a day apart if both went the full length.
Captain C
@lowtechcyclist:
“Neighbor, let me tell you, it’s all true. Even the contradictory parts.”
Leslie
< soapbox > Civics must be incorporated into the curriculum from kindergarten on. A large percentage of the population will remain willfully ignorant so long as politics is an abstraction that happens in DC and is treated as entertainment by the media. < /soapbox>
Old School
I received a thank-you postcard in the mail today from Rachel Baker – who was one of the state races we funded through the BJ thermometers. While I appreciate the gratitude, I kind of wish she had focused her attention on voters in her own state.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@Elizabelle: complete and total clusterfuck on their part.
sdhays
Regarding the discussion of focus groups, here’s Nora From Queen’s: It’s Weirdly Easy to Scam Focus Groups. (It’s a comedy show staring Awkwafina).
(So many things today are making me think of comedy shows. In an earlier thread, someone mentioned Ron DeSantis’ “tinny” voice and I almost went to look up the “tinny words” sketch from Monty Python to post as well.)
Suzanne
If y’all have any young ones in your life, might I recommend getting them a copy of “Grace for President” for any upcoming gift-giving occasions? My kids have all loved it, and it has a great message.
marklar
@Baud:
I was in grad school at the University of Minnesota when the beloved Twins (regular season record of 85-77) won it all.
The regular season stops mattering once the umpire calls “play ball”
P.S. I read your post incorrectly. By “gap” I thought you meant won-lost record, not time between games.
Roger Moore
@Elizabelle:
Personally, I preferred playing as the Servants of Cthulhu or the Discordian Society.
Suzanne
Ooooh, the host just called him “Mr. Oz”. Daaaaaamn.
Geminid
. Agence France-Presse reported on continued protests in Iran, with security forces staging violent crackdowns at universities and high schools. The story said tensions are especially high because tomorrow marks the 40-day anniversery of the death of Mahsa Amini, a key date in the Shi’ite mourning cycle.
moops
A GOP House means government shut down next year. Absolute certainty. Put as much of your important measures in place now or you won’t get it done for a decade, if ever.
Roger Moore
@lowtechcyclist:
That was back in the 1900s and 1910s, when the leagues were genuinely independent and there wasn’t even a Commissioner of Baseball.
persistentillusion
@Roger Moore: The selling of info to other campaigns is how I, in CO, got on endless numbers of state campaigns in states I don’t live in. I understand the need to fundraise, but really, I don’t care about someone running for state house in Kentucky. I just don’t. Other races will get my money.
Cameron
@Another Scott: Giant methane cloud, eh? Wonder what Trump had for lunch.
Tom Q
@lowtechcyclist: For the first 16 years of LCS, they were best-of-5, so there wasn’t that big a gap between a sweeping team and one that went the full 5 games. Now, with 7-game sets and travel days, there can be close to a week’s difference. I recall, in 1996, the Yankees wrapped up their series on Sunday, while it took Atlanta all the way till Thursday to prevail, with the World Series starting on Saturday. (For whatever it’s worth, Atlanta seemed to benefit from not having lost its rhythm, as they clobbered NY in the first two games. The Yankees came back and won in 6, but Joe Torre always felt the long layoff disadvantaged his team)
I can’t recall many years when both series were wrapped us so early, which is probably why it feels so odd to you.
Tom Q
@lowtechcyclist: For the first 16 years of LCS, they were best-of-5, so there wasn’t that big a gap between a sweeping team and one that went the full 5 games. Now, with 7-game sets and travel days, there can be close to a week’s difference. I recall, in 1996, the Yankees wrapped up their series on Sunday, while it took Atlanta all the way till Thursday to prevail, with the World Series starting on Saturday. (For whatever it’s worth, Atlanta seemed to benefit from not having lost its rhythm, as they clobbered NY in the first two games. The Yankees came back and won in 6, but Joe Torre always felt the long layoff disadvantaged his team)
I can’t recall many years when both series were wrapped us so early, which is probably why it deems so odd to you.
Roger Moore
@Cameron:
Hamberders and covfefe.
Miss Bianca
@Captain C: “Especially the contradictory parts.”
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
So I went to shoot fall color yesterday up at Big Pine Creek. Some ways up the trail, I checked my watch for the step count, no watch. I thought I may have left in on the charger, this morning it wasn’t on the charger. I thought it may have fallen off on my drive up, or I’d totally lost it. It was behind my charger, I’m relieved.
Baud
@🐾BillinGlendaleCA:
👍
Bill Arnold
@Matt McIrvin:
This is one reason why dooming and glooming in the runup to an election is problematic; voters who want to vote for the winner magnify any perceived advantage on one side. Spamming optimism is similar. There is also the don’t have to vote/can vote third party that optimism can cause. Etc. Models can cover these, but they are difficult to measure.
Geminid
@bbleh: Social scientists who’ve studied the topic would agree that there are few swing voters to be found even among Independents. Most registered or self-described Independents consistently vote for one of the two parties. But 10 to 15% may be true swing voters, which can be a significant amount when electorates in most states are at least 30% Independents.
Election results sometimes show impacts of swing voting. Maryland and Massachusetts voted for Hillary Clinton by double digits in 2016, but in 2014 they elected Republican governors and they reelected them in 2018.. The electorates were different in those off year elections, but I don’t think they were that different. There were substantial amounts of Clinton/Baker voters in Massachusetts, and Clinton/Hogan voters in Maryland. And Vermont elected a Republican Governor in 2016 even as Clinton carried the state easily.
Arizona in 2020 was a good example of the importance of the Independent vote. When voting rolls closed in October, Arizona registrations stood at 35% Republican, 32% Democrat, and 31.7% Independent. Both sides brought out their bases that year, and there was record turnout. It’s hard for me to see how Mark Kelly and Joe Biden could have won without carrying a majority of Independents..
Baud
@Bill Arnold:
Agree.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Things like EMIT will help get us the information we need to make the efforts much more effective.
Another useful tool would be a network of thousands of methane C12/C14 isotope ratio sensors. They would indicate if it’s fossil carbon or a much younger source like livestock/swamps/etc.
Bill Arnold
[tried to get edit window to fix previous comment – first sentence should have been block quoted]
schrodingers_cat
@Elizabelle: She needs to resign as the caucus chair, throwing a staffer under the bus is pretty bad form.
Shalimar
When you get down to it, Republicans campaign on hurting people. And a shockingly high percentage of human beings are sadistically into that.
Shalimar
@Elizabelle: Didn’t the congresscritters gather together on the steps to hold a press conference about the letter? Or was that a picture of a separate presser that has been going around to show who is involved?
I don’t get blaming it on staff if you’re doing publicity.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Baud:
2014 (SF v KC) was a 5 day gap. Same as now.
In 2014, KC won ALCS in 4 and SF won NLCS in 5 for a combined 9 games, just like this year’s.
Baud
@Shalimar:
Apparently the picture was from a different event altogether. No presser on this letter.
lowtechcyclist
@Roger Moore:
OK, that makes sense. I was reading it more as “I remember when…” but I misunderstood.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: Cross-party voting seems to happen more often for Governor than for any other high-profile race. I think it’s because it doesn’t have to be a super-ideological position and people actually consider administrative competence important. Which makes big old trolls like DeSantis who do treat it as an “own the libs” position all the scarier.
bbleh
Q – Is there any evidence to indicate mail-based campaigns make a real difference at the ballot box?
A – Yes! Political scientists have conducted dozens of experiments on the effect of direct mail and find that, on average, mailers increase turnout when they use “messages that emphasize civic duty or the importance of making one’s voice heard” (Gerber and Green 2015, pg. 58). Additional evidencealso shows that making the interaction feel personalized, rather than just a blanket message from an organization, is key to increasing the effectiveness of voter outreach.
Certainly from all the research I’ve seen, and from personal experience, it’s second only to in-person experience, ie precinct-walking. And it’s something FAR more people can do, FAR more flexibly, and in greater volume.
lowtechcyclist
@schrodingers_cat:
It depends. Throwing a named staffer under the bus for something she did would be the worst kind of punching down. Throwing a nonspecific staffer under the bus is just trying to lay off responsibility without dumping the blame on anyone in particular. Not ideal behavior, but that’s about all that can be said about it.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Turns out Ro Khanna is a snake. I thought he was just stoopid, but now he’s done this undercutting Dems to appease authoritarians shit twice.
Earlier today:
This sparked a memory: when Dump shut down the government in 2019 because Ann Coulter and Limbaugh were mocking him for failing to build his wall, Khanna went on all the networks and called on Pelosi to cave and negotiate with the hostage takers.
It was beyond belief, Nancy was holding four aces and he wanted her to give them to the other side.
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
I don’t think they can leave it at unnamed staffers. The breach was too serious. It can wait until after the election, but they have to follow up.
bbleh
@Geminid: Ok, so 10-15% of let’s say 1/3 of potential voters (which is generous!) is at most 3-5%, which indeed can be the margin of victory in a close election.
BUT, it ain’t like they’re all gonna break one way. It is in fact reasonable to assume that their priors are split roughly evenly, which means 1.5-2.5%, at most, who are “independent” and potentially swing voters predisposed your way, and the same against.
The question then is, where are resources best invested? How do those numbers compare to the number of voters who lean your way but just DON’T VOTE for some reason? Where is the biggest vein of voter ore? Given the data on voter participation, I submit that it is unquestionably the latter, and moreover the latter already lean your way, without any need for argument!
I don’t hold this to be a general phenomenon for all times. But for our environment at this time, GOTV — your KNOWN vote — is for my money a far better investment than trying to persuade a bunch of dithering “undecideds.”
FFS, if they’re informed, how can they really be undecided, unless they’re incapable of decision? (And indeed some people are.) If they truly are undecided, what more can you do? And if they’re incapable, you can’t do anything!
I just don’t see the margin. GOTV. Heck with the ditherers. They’re great media fodder — the drama! the realism! it’s like an Ohio diner in our own studio! — but as targets for activism, bah.
Tony G
From my perspective, people who get “information” about candidates from political ads are, by definition, idiots. The ads are, with rare exceptions, designed to mislead through scare tactics. (I saw an ad today for a New Jersey county commissioner — a position that has nothing at all to do with school curricula — and the guy’s big pledge was that he would “end racial indoctrination”.). There are idiots who will lap that up. I’m old enough to have been a middle-aged adult (about 40) when the internet became a widespread entity (rather than something geeks experimented with at MIT). I remember being amazed at how easy it suddenly became to access information. Of course, most people do not use it that way, instead relying on their Facebook “news feeds” or (somehow) on TikTok videos. All of the information in the world available within seconds and, apparently, people are more ignorant. than ever. They should all get off my lawn.
Timill
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Back in 2007:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_World_Series
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Timill:
that’s a layoff of a single team, not a layoff between the conclusion of both league championship series and the beginning of the world series, when no absolute no baseball is occurring.
Ohio Mom
@Leslie: People are always saying schools should teach civics. Well here in Ohio, civics is woven into all the grades in the Ohio public school curriculum and there is a required semester course in American Government taken in the later high school years (the corresponding semester is dedicated to an economics class that includes an introduction to personal finance).
Now the curriculum has a distinct right-wing bias, so be careful what you wish for.
Matt McIrvin
@Tony G: That ad is great information though–I’d see that “end racial indoctrination” promise and instantly know not to vote for that guy.
mrmoshpotato
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Sounds like someone isn’t 🎶 READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!🎶
Patience, grasshopper. And go Phillies!
Matt McIrvin
@Ohio Mom: Anyone who blames reactionary politics on the decline of education needs to explain why older voters are worse rather than better than younger ones.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Matt McIrvin: perhaps you have cause and effect reversed?
mrmoshpotato
@Elizabelle:
That sounds like a load of crap.
James E Powell
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
I wondered what Ro Khanna’s problem was. Don’t know anything about him, so I looked him up. Yale Law School. The Ivy League is the bane of the nation.
Timill
@Matt McIrvin: Olderr voterz haz forgotted moer…
Geminid
@bbleh: I was not advocating spending resources on swaying swing voters , i.e. conversion strategies. Just that they should not be dismissed. I don’t think Democrats should tailor policies to them either.
Campaign messaging is a different story, particularly when it comes to which policies to center. Like it or not, Independents can be critical in purple states and districts. You will see successful Democrats in these races message accordingly. This often drives Democrats crazy, but I think people like Cortez-Masto, Warnock, Kelly and Hassan will do it anyway. For instance, they are not pushing Supreme Court expansion. That’s an issue for for blue state and blue district Democrats.
At this point, though, Republican radicalization has diminished swing voters because they’vd already swung- to Democrats. That condition may persist, because the Bakers and Hogans probably cannot win primaries now.