The fun in the comments last night was all about the Progressive Caucus’s letter. From what I could see before I racked out, everyone was pretty pissed. Including me. Between then and now a fair amount of new information has come out. It turns out the letter was initially drafted back over the summer and the Progressive Caucus decided not to circulate it. Then, for some bizarre reason, the date was changed on it and it was pushed out yesterday. It appears someone close to the Quincy Institute was involved:
6/ I’ll note that the Quincy folks were pretty pumped when the letter came out and seemed to have their own write up pretty much right when the Post broke the story. https://t.co/Qmn3iYSgEK
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 25, 2022
The Quincy Institute is largely built around one man’s grief at the loss of his son in combat. A grief that has pushed his exceedingly accurate critiques about how the US uses its national power into an almost reflexive isolationism. Which is, perhaps, why the Koch Foundation is funding it. The Kochs are polite/genteel isolationists. They also contribute funding to Ian Bremmer’s non-profit foundation. So keep that in mind when you see his stuff as well. Anyhow, since last night the letter has been withdrawn and a number of the most prominent members of the caucus who signed it back in June or July have issued explanations why they initially supported it, surprise at it being released, and reiteration of their support for Ukraine.
Several things need to happen in the wake of the letter being issued. The first is the Progressive Caucus is going to have to clean house in terms of its staff. They are going to have too quickly and deeply figure out who is responsible for releasing the letter, fire that person or persons, and be transparent about it. The second is that proper scrutiny into who is actually funding the Quincy Institute, what they expect from that funding, and the actual affiliations/connections of the subject matter experts and staff employed there, needs to happen.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today we had a very active diplomatic day, events for Ukraine at all levels – the highest, governmental, parliamentary.
In the morning, I addressed the participants of the Berlin conference, which is dedicated to the reconstruction and modernization of our country. This is already the second such conference, after the Swiss one, which took place in the city of Lugano. We are working to obtain resources for the rapid restoration of our infrastructure, social facilities, and housing for Ukrainians.
I am grateful to German Chancellor Scholz and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen for making today’s event in Berlin very meaningful. We are waiting for specific decisions. Time cannot be stopped, and winter is coming.
The Crimea Platform started working in Croatia today – at the parliamentary level.
This is an additional and very powerful level of functioning of our instrument for the deoccupation and reintegration of Crimea.
The Parliament always embodies democracy, represents different communities of each country. Therefore, when parliaments help restore territorial integrity, when, thanks to parliamentary cooperation, expert work and exchange of experience can be directed in the right direction, it is very powerful.
We will definitely liberate Crimea. We will return this part of our country not only to the all-Ukrainian space, but also to the all-European space. This was confirmed once again today. And I am grateful to all our partners – almost 50 states and international organizations – who help in the parliamentary format. I am also grateful to Croatia separately for the hospitality towards our Crimea Platform.
Today I held a meeting with representatives of the Jewish community – American, European and, of course, Israeli.
We talked primarily about the protection of our people, about the need to make Russian terror impossible and to end this war as soon as possible by guaranteeing complete security and freedom for all Ukrainians throughout the territory of Ukraine.
The sooner peace is achieved on our land thanks to the Ukrainian victory, the less evil Russia will bring to other regions, including the Middle East in its cooperation with Iran. I believe that one day Israeli politicians will hear this position, as Israeli society has already done – we feel it.
The protection of historical memory in Ukraine was discussed separately. Despite the war, we must continue to implement our programs that restore historical justice. We started the implementation of an important project commemorating the victims of Nazism – the construction of a memorial in Babyn Yar. We will definitely complete it.
I held extremely meaningful negotiations with the President of Germany, who arrived in Ukraine. Today, President Steinmeier visited the Chernihiv region – the districts that were under occupation. While he was there an air alert started. And actually the Russian missile terror, the enemy’s use of Iranian drones was one of the key topics at our negotiations.
We are deeply grateful to Germany for the modern and effective air defense system already provided to us. We are looking forward to new similar systems.
We discussed the entire range of our cooperation – defense, political, financial.
Significant attention was paid to reconstruction – and I am grateful to President Steinmeier for his willingness to personally patronize this work. We will enhance cooperation with Germany in the field of reconstruction. And at the local government level, it will also receive presidential patronage.
And one more thing.
Just before recording this address, I spoke with new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. I believe that the partnership between our countries and the already traditional British leadership in the defense of democracy and freedom will be further strengthened.
Ukraine and Britain have achieved the best relations so far, but there is still potential to increase our cooperation to bring more benefits to our societies. I invited the Prime Minister to visit Ukraine.
I am grateful to everyone who helps us fight for freedom!
I am grateful to everyone who fights and works for our victory!
I am grateful to all our warriors who are now holding their positions, destroying the occupiers and giving Ukraine the most important feeling: a feeling of confidence in our future.
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy is now on his third British prime minister. Collect them all, trade them with your friends, win valuable prizes.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessments of the situations in Kherson, Izium, and Bakhmut:
KHERSON/1345 UTC OCT 25 / RU collaborators
continue to be evacuated from urban area. RU troops
reported to be fortifying city. RU engineers seen to be
constructing minefields on the left (south) bank of the
Dnipro at Hornostayivka, possibly to defend a crossing
point. pic.twitter.com/FeJDmgb3Nq— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 25, 2022
IZIUM/1330 UTC 25 OCT/ UKR Air Defense confirms the downing of a Russian Su-24M Strike fighter.[At present, unconfirmed report locates crash in the Izium axis]. UKR carries out 30 aviation strike missions across all axes of conflict. 9 RU air defense systems hit. pic.twitter.com/slEP2w3xfW
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 25, 2022
BAKHMUT/ 1315 UTC 25 OCT/ UKR Air Defense downs a Ka-52 attack Helicopter and an Orlan-10 Recon UAV. Suppression ofEnemy Air Defense (SEAD) strikes take out 9 RU air defenses complexes on all axes of contact. RU troops reported driven out of Bakhmut suburbs. pic.twitter.com/YtGsfMcTGl
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 25, 2022
The Norwegians have rolled up another Russian illegal:
The researcher apparently graduated from the Center for Military Studies in Calgary. Also, implausibly, he worked on a hybrid-threats university project called "The Grey Zone" https://t.co/7QiK0O4fwy
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) October 25, 2022
The Guardian has the details:
Norway’s domestic security agency has arrested a man claiming to be a Brazilian academic whom it suspects of being a Russian spy.
“We have requested that a Brazilian researcher at the University of Tromsø be expelled from Norway because we believe he represents a threat to fundamental national interests,” the police security service (PST) deputy chief, Hedvig Moe, told the public broadcaster NRK.
The security agency was concerned he “may have acquired a network and information about Norway’s policy in the north”, Moe said. “Even if this … is not a threat to the security of the kingdom, we are worried it could be misused by Russia.”
Norway said last week it had arrested a seventh Russian national suspected of illegally flying drones or taking photographs in restricted areas, mainly in the strategically sensitive far north of Norway.
Investigators believe the supposed researcher, who was detained on Monday in the Arctic city, was in Norway under a false name and identity working for one of Russia’s intelligence services, NRK said. A local court ordered him to be held for four weeks.
Two staff members at the University of Tromsø who closely worked with the suspect said police had identified the man in question as José Assis Giammaria.
We’ll have to wait for more details, but I expect that whomever Giammaria really is – as in what his actual Russian name is – we’ll find out he worked for the GRU’s Unit 29155. Just like the Russian illegal that Bellingcat exposed back in August.
President Biden: "Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake if it were to use a tactical nuclear weapon." pic.twitter.com/bPgHOyLwEt
— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) October 25, 2022
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
By the way, the employees of the reserve remained in the occupied territory, and they needed help. If you wish, you can look at the reserve's Instagram account, where there is more detailed information https://t.co/T5BJ4KAbVZ
— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 25, 2022
Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
I think the caption is self explanatory: it’s shnoozle time! Sleep well little warrior and dream of overflowing cheese boards!
Open thread!
coin operated
As always…thank you for the updates Adam
Alison Rose
Just gonna highlight this one bit here for no particular reason whatsoever:
Ahem.
I appreciate your take on that damn letter, and I really hope it’s your lips (or fingertips) to God’s ears and the PC takes the right actions after this. And then shuts the hell up unless they are offering 100% full-throated Ukraine support and nothing else.
Speaking of outside support, I was reading earlier that Giorgia Meloni has reiterated that she stands with Ukraine and they will continue to have support from Italy, but then I see people gesturing in the general direction of Berlusconi and I get worried. I hope she’s not bullshitting. From the little I’ve read about her, she sounds like a trash pile, so I don’t feel too confident.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Anonymous At Work
So, looks like Russian front lines have turned into a meat-grinder on two fronts and UA is holding its own in Bahkmut. Aside from slow progress in Kherson, is this the next 6 months? Or is there someplace that UA can make a break-through?
cain
I think putin is desperate enough to do a nuke and then blame UKR for it as a dirty bomb. It wont work of course, but I will say if he does do that the blow back is going to gigantic. He’ll likely be dead within 24 hours by his own people. Hopefully, orders to do that will not be done.
bbleh
Contra my earlier expectations, the RU “defense” of Kherson seems to be as — to reuse a term — rotten as much of the rest of their effort in Ukraine and indeed their larger structure and system.
I hope to Hades some part of their decision structure doesn’t implement something “dramatic” and stupid, and likewise that the UA decision structure continues on its (truly historically remarkable) sustained, rational, and effective course.
(And not too sorry mud season is coming. At least fewer people will die in conflict. Now we just gotta help the Ukrainians get through the cold.)
YY_Sima Qian
Quincy Institute is just about the only refuge for the so called “foreign policy restrainers”, which can come from the entire Left-Right ideological spectrum. Their common position is that US foreign policy needs to be less interventionist, less militaristic, that objectives need to be aligned with the reality of limited means as well as relative decline of US power (due to the rise of others), & domestic needs.
Overall, IMO they are a valuable counterweight to the conventional wisdom of the DC “blob” that refuses to acknowledge any of the above. This is not a voice/perspective that DC has too much of. I don’t think their policy briefs advocate for isolationism, though I generally only read their China & Taiwan related stuff. However, I have noticed some of their output on Russia & Ukraine to be often tone deaf & cringeworthy, ignores the agency of Ukraine, failing to account for the unique threat posed by Putin, & occasionally veering dangerously close to apologia. They are discrediting themselves w/ their Russia/Ukraine stuff. That is too bad, because more diverse perspectives need to penetrate the DC bubble.
Gin & Tonic
I composed the below text earlier today, before hearing Zelensky and the part that Alison Rose highlighted. But it doesn’t really change my conclusions, so I’ll post it anyway.
In last night’s Ukraine thread, after I’d left, somebody asked about the status of Crimea. So I thought I’d put a couple of paragraphs together. All the usual disclaimers apply: just the thoughts of an Internet rando, not a specialist, &c, &c. It’s long-ish, so feel free to move along.
I’m not going to give you the history of Crimea back to the Scythians or the Greeks or the Ottomans, you can look that up if you’re interested. I’ll mainly concern myself with post-WWII. The only important thing to keep in mind from before that period, is that there was – and to a much reduced extent still is – a native population, the Crimean Tatars, a primarily Turkic, Muslim people.
I’ve said before that Crimea is an economic sink, which it still is. There is little industry, outside of military bases, and little agriculture due to a lack of water resources. The peninsula “flourished,” if that’s the right word, due to tourism. Once the USSR had somewhat rebuilt and stabilized industrially after the Great Patriotic War, Homo Sovieticus was looking for a place to vacation by the shore. He, of course, couldn’t leave the USSR because an exit visa was nearly impossible to obtain, and besides, he had no money, because the entire economy ran on a non-convertible currency. So where could you go, where you could pay in rubles and could get there by train? Crimea. This was a blessing to the industrial workers of Russia or Ukraine, but their expectations were very low, so there wasn’t much investment there. If you’d happily spend your two weeks in a one- or two-room shack with no plumbing, who had any incentive to build out the infrastructure? So it remained a really low-rent destination for people who had no other options. Since Stalin deported almost all of the Tatars in 1944, there was room for people, and the vacuum was filled largely by ethnic Russians – maybe they vacationed there and decided to stay, maybe they actively moved there from cold places, whatever, it led to the ethnic makeup that’s there now.
But politically, whether Crimea belonged to the Ukrainian SSR or the Russian SSR or the USSR was kind of irrelevant. Yes, the Ukrainian SSR was nominally independent (it had its own seat at the UN, part of the deal that got the USSR to join) but as a practical matter not so much. So when Khruschev transferred it to the Ukrainian SSR, nothing really changed. Then, as in post-Soviet times, Crimea wasn’t an “oblast” (basically a state) but rather an “Autonomous Republic,” so more like, I don’t know, Guam? American Samoa? I don’t have a good analogy. During both Soviet and post-Soviet but pre-2014 times, travel back and forth was unrestricted, and much of Crimea’s electricity and nearly all of its water came from mainland Ukraine. From 1991 to 2014, things functioned pretty normally. People there spoke Russian but were citizens of Ukraine, and the economy ran on Ukrainian currency. In 2014, the “little green men” took over, there was a fake referendum and the Russian Federation annexed Crimea. At that point it became an administrative unit of the RF (not sure in what format), the residents were issued Russian passports and the economy switched to run on rubles. Ukraine said “fuck that,” closed the land border and shut off the electricity and water. Putin got pissed off and spent $4-5 billion or whatever to build the bridge.
But the world and the economy had changed over the past 30 years. As it became easy for Ukrainians and Russians to travel and to exchange their money for dollars or Euros, all of a sudden a seaside holiday in Yevpatoria didn’t look so inviting. They’d much rather go to Spain, or Croatia, or Egypt. So once again, no real incentive for anyone to invest in tourist infrastructure. After 2014, things got more complicated – Ukrainians didn’t go there anymore (the border was closed) and Russians had to either fly or go the long way around, which took time. And again, in the post-2014 political situation, who’s going to invest? Once Ukrainians or Russians have had the experience of going to a package-tour resort in Turkey or Egypt, in a modern hotel, run by a European company, those are the standards they’ll expect – and nobody is going to build that in Russian-occupied Crimea.
So is a deal possible? Anything is possible, I guess, but I just don’t see it. As I’ve said another time, I suspect (without proof) that a deal of some kind could have been reached in early 2014, but once they took over Donetsk, that was no longer going to happen. You’ll hear plenty of “Crimea is Ukraine,” sure, although it’s not the same in the national consciousness as Kherson or Zaporizhzhia – but nobody in Ukraine is going to suggest recognizing the annexation *now.* If keeping that goal means the war goes on for another two years, will there be more willingness to consider it next winter? Maybe. Any rational economic calculation would conclude that Crimea is stupid, but wars aren’t usually susceptible to rational economic calculation. Anyway, I’ve probably rambled enough. Don’t know if I’ll be around for questions, as these threads usually hit their stride when I’m asleep.
RepubAnon
So, a think tank funded by the Koch folks released a letter that makes the Democrats, particularly progressive Democrats, look bad? To quote Lilly von Schtup: “How – ordinary.”
Helpful suggestion for the Progressives – don’t work with a think tank unless you know:
Wag
Will any of be surprised when we find out that the Quincy Institute is being funded through the back door by Russian intelligence/GRU?
counterfactual
@Anonymous At Work: At this point, no one knows. It’s plausible that Ukraine can break through again in the north into Luhansk Oblast. It’s plausible that Ukraine can break through again in Kherson. The Russians have been warning about a Ukrainian attack from Zaporizhzhia south toward Melitopol and the coast for months. Hell, the past couple have days have seen the Ukrainians advance two km towards Bakhmut, which is a blitkrieg for that front.
Origuy
@Alison Rose: She’s saying the right things, and some of the people in her cabinet have a history of being pro-Europe, but because of her coalition, she’s stuck with people like Matteo Salvini, one of her deputy prime ministers. The name of Salvini’s party translates to “Party for Salvini premier”. He’s spoken out against sanctions.
My source is thelocal.it, but it’s behind a paywall.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose: “Trash pile” is quite kind when it comes to Meloni. We can perhaps hope for a short honeymoon, however. This coalition is not really overendowed with political or managerial talent, Berlusca is already at work cranking out scandals in his inimitable, untainted-by-shame style, there’s an inflation-ridden and COVID-19-wave afflicted wave winter coming up, and the coalition will likely soon cheerfully and energetically engage in the traditional political pastime of publically knifing each other in the press. They’ll be making more trouble at home than abroad, at any rate.
In the ’90s I heard of a Russian graduate student who commented: “Italy is comic version of Russia. Russia is tragic version of Italy”. Sometimes, in less optimistic moods, I think that you could transpose “Russia” to “US” and get a contemporary version, but I shake it off…
A Ghost to Most
Diplomacy with Russia is the new Defund the Police.
bbleh
@Gin & Tonic: seems to me that your assertions — with which I mostly agree — very much support the notion of Crimea as potentially a key factor in a mutually agreeable end to the war.
As you note, it’s not resource-rich (other than perhaps scenery), it doesn’t loom as large in Ukrainian “national consciousness” as most other places presently in conflict, Russian interest in it has decreased, and of course it’s geographically almost totally isolated. All those things suggest that other issues — notably what happens in the Donbas — are far more important, and that SOME kind of deal involving Crimea might be enough to tip the balance between war and acceptable peace.
I agree that nominal sovereignty would have to remain with Ukraine; surrender would be unacceptable. OTOH I can easily see where the Russians wouldn’t insist on it. So then the question is, what other interests in Crimea might be negotiated? Off the top of my head, how about some analog to “free trade zones” or long-term leases a la Hong Kong? To take it to a mercantile extreme, make it a bidding war over investment: the more you (or your allies) put into developing Crimea, the more interest you get in whatever comes out of it. Everybody (and especially Crimea) benefits! (And yeah, Sevastopol looms large; fine, work out the details so everyone benefits.)
If some bargain over Crimea (again without ceding sovereignty) could be the key to resolving the situation in the Donbas (which frankly I can’t see not involving complete Russian withdrawal), then I’d say it’d be worth it.
NutmegAgain
Watching PBS Frontline right now. In my area and EST, it came on at 10:00. It’s a special focus on documenting war crimes in Ukraine.
I’m going to record it in case I can’t actually sit through it all.
OverTwistWillie
Not a good day to be answering phones in those offices.
PJ
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the summary. Neal Ascherson’s Black Sea has a lot on the historical and cultural context of Crimea from the Scythians up to the modern era.
Standard disclaimers apply, but it seems to me, someone completely ignorant about the situation besides what I read in the news and see on the map, that once Kherson falls to the Ukrainians, Crimea should be next. The Ukrainians will control land routes through Kherson, and the Kerch bridge will be subject to accurate long range missile attacks, as will any Russian ships. Without controlling the airspace, how can the Russians resupply troops there? How will they get troops there? I don’t see how the Russians can hold it.
OverTwistWillie
Don’t believe anything until the Kremlin denies it…..™
Carlo Graziani
Norwegian counterintelligence certainly is on a roll. I can’t say that I see a pattern in the agents or agent networks(?) that they’re rolling up, though. Giammaria must presumably have been embedded a while back, while some of the guys busted for impromptu drone club activity seem to be recent tourists. It’s not clear to me whether there’s a common intelligence target, nor whether they’re being busted as a result of a common surveillance or betrayal by an intelligence source.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for this.
Given Crimea’s dependence on Ukraine for water and all the rest, it logically makes sense for it to be part of Ukraine. Friendly countries can work out borders (look at the US and Canada and Point Roberts, WA) in ways that have little to do with logic.
The international order will be in extreme danger if VVP is able to destroy the post-war principle that borders cannot be changed by force. An awful lot is at stake in Ukraine. Whether Crimea is a dead-weight or not, VVP should not be rewarded with it.
Thanks again.
Cheers,
Scott.
PJ
@Wag: Here is an article about The Quincy Institute:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/quincy-trita-parsi-soros-koch-armin-rosen
Their leader, Trita Parsi, seems to be some kind of Iranian government lobbyist/go-between, which may also account for supporting pro-Russian outcomes.
Tony G
The “Quincy Institute”??? These goddamn “think tanks”. They should be shunned by all decent people (if there are any decent people in Washington, DC.)
zhena gogolia
@Tony G: Yeah, from Adam’s description I guessed it was Bacevich.
bbleh
@PJ: Sorry to say it, but I remain skeptical both of the ability of long-range missiles to logistically isolate Crimea (which has, what, a 500-mile coastline, and is as close geographically to Russia as to the rest of Ukraine) and of the possibility of successful invasion of Crimea either by land or amphibiously. I just don’t see starving the Russians out nor conquering them by force (except at a truly inordinate cost that I don’t think Ukraine could or would pay).
Of course all this could change if the political situation changes, ie if Russia basically gives up on (or in!) Crimea. But Crimea is not Snake Island.
Roger Moore
If you can get anything in trade for your British PM other than another PM, you’re probably doing well. The UK seems to have been trading down for quite some time.
Ninedragonspot
I’m glad Quincy Institute is receiving some additional scrutiny. Their work product on Taiwan has been really egregious.
Anoniminous
@Anonymous At Work:
Front line is approximately 2,500 kilometers. Ukraine has around 700,000 (estimates vary) bodies to hold it. With General Mud taking command of the battle space I wouldn’t expect much offense by the Ukrainians until the ground freezes and they can move across country. Attacking down roads with no room to maneuver is stupid and the Ukrainians aren’t stupid.
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
I won’t pretend to even your level of expertise, but I think you’re making a mistake to leave Sevastopol out of your discussion of Crimea. It’s the main base for the Russian Black Sea fleet, and the Russian navy is not going to want to give it up. That, much more than Crimea’s value as a tourist destination, is why Russia cares about the place. Losing access to the base, which is inevitable if Ukraine retakes Crimea, would be a major blow to the Russian navy.
YY_Sima Qian
@RepubAnon:
The Quincy Institute actually has a large number of institutional & individual donors. They used to have the Charles Koch Institute as one of the donor, but I just checked their website, Koch is no longer listed. Not sure why. I think the Kochs definitely represent the isolationist strain that might support “foreign policy restrainers”. Soros is another major founding donor to Quincy, through his Open Society Foundation, still listed as a top donor.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you for the background on Crimea. Very helpful!
Mike in DC
@OverTwistWillie:
“Pay no attention to that Oryx guy on Twitter…”
Cameron
I read the other day that Sevastopol is the only deep-water port in the Russian-controlled part of the Black Sea. Presuming Russia wants to keep its Black Sea Fleet, perhaps it might be inclined to a deal involving Crimea. Perhaps not, too, but if the Russian military situation doesn’t change a whole lot soon, a deal might look a whole lot better.
Cameron
@Roger Moore: IIRC, Russian used to have a long-term contract with Ukraine for the Sevastopol base.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you for this. For me it has pretty much boiled down to Zelenskyy’s repeated and vehement statements about not giving up Crimea and in fact getting it back, something he has been loud about since 2014. Like you say, depending on how the winter goes, and possibly next spring, summer, etc, maybe things change, but it sounds to me like he’s (and many others I’ve seen in Ukrainian government/military) not even considering letting it go for love or money.
bbleh
@Cameron: IIRC you are correct. Ergo such things were possible. Ergo they may be in future. QED and off to bed.
Jay
Nelle
@Gin & Tonic: Forgive me if I’m repeating myself (I’m a little fried from hours of rocking a teething grandchild today). My great-grandfather had a mill and a factory in Crimea (my grandmother grew up there and some sources say my father was born there…he said he was born northeast of there). Anyway, in 2018, I was told that the buildings are still standing and were used by Russian military.. I have no claim to anything there but am fine with them being blown up now.
My husband’s grandparents are also from Crimea. If only those Jews and Mennonites could have seen into the future and known that they would be sharing great-grandchildren.
mdblanche
Since Zelenskyy took office in May 2019 when Teresa May was still PM, he is in fact on his fourth British prime minister.
The Pale Scot
So yes I’m a blood thirsty Celt, and also a NJ Thug (reformed). When guys like this are found they should be disappeared and “rigorously interrogated”. When their handlers show up poking around about their whereabouts, “Julio, never heard of him” “what’s your name again”
Then drop them off on S. Georgia with a K-bar and a zippo.
Putin has called the rules, conscripts should be treated with mercy when possible, but intelligence agents, they need to have the fear of Cthulhu put in them, we know the Russians are doing it that way
NutmegAgain
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you so very much for this summary. Really helpful and informative! There is so much to learn. Meanwhile, sleep well.
Carlo Graziani
Something to maybe keep an eye on: Prigozhin and Kadyrov are really turning the volume to 11 on their not-terribly-respectful criticisms of Russian MOD’s conduct of the war, and on their respective claims to martial primacy. They seem to be either competing for the upper hand in current Kremlin war policy or jockeying for starting position in the eventual Kremlin succession scramble.
But the thing that seems a bit hubristic about all of this is that despite their outsized presence on Telegram, compared to the regular Ground Forces, Wagner and the Chechens just aren’t that strong — a few thousand men apiece, and they depend on MOD for weapons, transport, intelligence, and communications. It seems really unwise to go into a politically unsettled period assuming that they can just piss off a bunch of generals, in a country where, traditionally, generals have pretty much had the prerogative of settling the outcomes of coups and putsches.
The military doesn’t have its own high-energy circus Telegram channel, and Shoigu’s role is to function as muzzle and leash anyway. But I would not be surprised if we were to find someday out that there were some very upset senior officers nursing a grudge…
Lyrebird
@Nelle: Even if you shared that before, I am glad you did tonight. Survival!
And congratulations.
TheMightyTrowel
OT: zooming in to the funeral of a colleague who mentored me through some really tough times. Fuck cancer.
Matt McIrvin
Huh. So this Quincy Institute just happens to release this thing just before the midterm election, embarrassing all the Democrats who signed it months ago, after which they decided not to release it?
Yeah, that sounds like a big old October ratfuck to me. And the signatories walked right into it.
Jinchi
Sink or not, I expect Ukraine would like to control Crimea to deny Russia access to the Sevastopol naval base. That would allow safer transit into the Black Sea. Ensuring access to Crimea also seems to be the main reason that Russia attacked and occupied the cities along the coast of the Azov Sea.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Great summary. And to be clear, what I wrote last night concerning the possibility of Crimea as a bargaining point was based on an earlier version of some similar observations that you posted earlier.
Redshift
@Cameron:
You do remember correctly. Putin tore up the agreement (which also limited Russian forces there) after he seized Crimea.
So while trust is obviously going to be difficult to reestablish (perhaps a bit less if VVP is out of the picture), restoring Ukrainian sovereignty doesn’t necessarily have to mean that leasing of the base is impossible, especially if that’s an arrangement that could avoid a long stalemate.
The Pale Scot
Ground didn’t freeze last year, I don’t think it will this year, according to every forecast that isn’t from RU
La Nina going strong for the 3rd yr
Anoniminous
@The Pale Scot:
If it doesn’t freeze then this is what the Ukrainians would face trying to move cross country.
Amir Khalid
@Redshift:
On the other hand, do you think a post-war Ukraine would consider it safe or prudent, ever to allow any Russian military presence within its borders? If I were Zelenskyy, I would say, “Hell no.”
The Pale Scot
@Anoniminous:
Sure, but Russians also. All those ill equipped conscripts are going to be freezing and starving in the mud. No logistics no food fuel or water
Chinese peasant, “what is the penalty for being late to our required servitude” “Death”
“What is the penalty for rebellion” “Death”
Que Doonsbury Parrot “Frag the lieutenant Frag the lieutenant” “My God, this bird as been to Nam”
cbear
Everybody seems to have an opinion regarding President Zelenskyy’s statements and position on Crimea and the social/political/military ramifications of those statements.
Perhaps some of you may be correct. BUT maybe it’s as simple as he’s a very smart man and knows how to negotiate and bargain. He has, after all, run rings around Putin and virtually every other political or military leader, friend or foe, since the war began.
When you start from “I want it fucking all, every inch of land” you have a lot of room to move–and I suspect he has the political will, and the social support from the Ukrainian people to strike an advantageous deal on Crimea well short of taking or keeping the entire area.
Hell, maybe he even learned from watching Democrats bargaining with themselves vs the Rethugs. You know, like, “Well we wanted 2 trillion to fix the economy you fucked, but since you’re only offering 500 billion, how bout 750 billion?” Or “Sure we’re happy to talk about your good faith effors to reform Medicare and Social Security.”
In addition,by taking the stance he has, he also forestalls the various and sundry spineless fucks around the world, including here, from attempting to bargain for him.
That’s my take anyway.
Jinchi
That’s my thought too. Zelenskyy isn’t going to concede anything pre-negotiation. Certainly not to Putin.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Roger Moore: Seems like threat reduction would be a major factor in the calculus for Ukraine; therefore kicking Russia out of Sevastopol and surrounding installations would be a major benefit. Russia might still launch weapons into Crimea and the remainder of Ukraine, but that’s yet another reminder that their military has to be shredded until ineffectual.
H/T to Gin & Tonic for excellent summary. I have no real knowledge in this realm but what you say intuitively strikes me as true.
way2blue
@A Ghost to Most: Exactly my thought when I first heard about the ‘letter’. Such tone-deaf scolds. Myopic & perverse. I’m sure Rick Wilson is pulling out whatever hair he has left…
Anyway
@zhena gogolia:
Katrina v de Huevel, huge Russophile znd reflexively anti -Dem, is also associated with Quincy.
way2blue
@Gin & Tonic: Quite peripheral to your Crimea primer, but with Ukrainian water via the canal—could Crimea’s land be arable? Would it be suitable, for example, olive groves… some sort of crop that grows in arid climates?
Barry
@YY_Sima Qian: “However, I have noticed some of their output on Russia & Ukraine to be often tone deaf & cringeworthy, ignores the agency of Ukraine, failing to account for the unique threat posed by Putin, & occasionally veering dangerously close to apologia.”
In other words, people who are paid by the right and lick Putin’s boots.
Geminid
@Jinchi: It’s possible that Ukraine might agree to a ceasefire in place after they’ve regained all the territories taken by Russia since 2014 except for Crimea. They wouldn’t have to concede Crimea in principle. Resolution of its status could be reserved for a peace treaty, and that might not be achieved for years after a cessation of hostilities.
YY_Sima Qian
@Barry: Except Quincy’s funding is not primarily from the right, you can look at their donor list.
I think we should be careful accusing people of treason based on policy disagreements, in the absence of evidence. Sometimes people make erroneous analysis or draw dumb conclusions. Sometimes people do stupid things in their advocacy.
However, I would say Eli Clifton & his supporters at Quincy, in particular, deserves closer scrutiny. Clifton’s take on Russia/Ukraine has been consistently cringeworthy.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: This.
lee
@Gin & Tonic:
Great write up. I’ve seen pictures of the beaches and honestly they are pretty good (better than most Texas beaches). Post-war I think some investment in hotels and whatnot they could be a steady stream of international cash to Ukraine.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I wonder if the Quincy Institute “captured” some of the Progressive Caucus’s staff. Their website and Twitter account very enthusiastically promoted the notorious letter when it first came out.
Right now I think Democrats just want to put this affair behind them. Interested members probably now know much of the circumstances that led to the letter being sent when it was. After the midterms there may be some action taken regarding CPC staffers.
This matter certainly reflects poorly on CPC Chair Jayapal and will adversely affect her chances of rising within leadership of the larger Democratic Caucus, I think.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Could be. “Quincy” here could be just Eli Clifton. Or maybe the signers of the letter threw their staffer(s) under the bus.
If a staffer did indeed publish the letter w/o approval, then the CPC needs to investigate & fire the staff(s) responsible, & share the findings. Right now they look bad, regardless of where the speculations lead.
Traveller
@Anoniminous: I would like to thank Annon for his link to…the reality of war and logistics and movement in the time of Mud. Like many, I have been anticipating the freezing of the ground for broad and sustainable advances, because, as others here have noted, the Russian troops/conscripts will fare worse in the winter than the winter/well equipped and clothed Ukrainians.
But I just may be wrong in thinking that advances will be possible, especially if the ground doesn’t freeze. That is to say my thought that winter would be a winning time for Ukraine is simply wrong…but we will see…there may be the possibility of movement on hard surface roads….(I don’t know, we will see).
Best Wishes, and thanks to Adam for this wonderful daily work that also allows commentators to bring their special knowledge and insights to the fore…great stuff, so thanks to all.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Some of the members who “signed” say they approved a draft of a letter in June and were surprised to see another version made public on Monday. And while Ms. Jayapal said yesterday that that staffers had put the letter out without authorization, critics note that she said nothing about this Monday evening when she issued a statement trying to clarify the first letter. An unnamed source told a Politico reporter that Jayapal did in fact authorize the letter’s release. I don’t neccesarily take that as fact, but I guess it’s possible.
It is a strange story, but I don’t think it will be fully aired out by CPC members until after the midterms. My main concern is potential stress on the unity of the House Democratic Caucus. It’s been very unified so far, but that’s taken a lot of hard work behind the scenes, and I don’t take unity as a given going forward, whether Democrats are in the Majority or the in the Minority.
Gin & Tonic
@lee: Crimea has a lot of potential – natural beauty a la Croatia or Montenegro, still a short hop for northern Europeans. Russia has fucked it for at least another generation. No western hotel company will invest there for a good long time, even assuming Ukraine de-occupies it. Can you imagine a planning meeting at Marriott, for instance, where somebody says “how about Crimea?” They’d sooner build a resort on a Superfund site.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Taken in a vacuum, I think the only thing objectionable about the letter is ignoring Ukraine’s agency & advising the Biden Administration to negotiate directly w/ Putin when the timing is appropriate. Frankly, such ignorance of the agencies & desires of countries that are the targets of US “benevolence” or “hostility” is an age old feature of discourse from American politicians, bureaucrats & analysts, from across the spectrum.
Otherwise, the letter basically is asking the Administration to do what it is already doing. For this very reason, the letter is superfluous from a policy perspective. The damage is in the political arena, as the letter is gratuitous, unnecessary, ill-advised & ultimately counterproductive so close to the mid-terms.
OTOH, an overwrought reaction to the part of the CPC that signed the letter is precise the outcome that a possible Russian influence operation would seek, to sow dissension & create fractures across all areas of the US polity. We all can exercise our own agency in how we respond, & whether we choose to amplify the political damage & the effect of any Russian operation. The CPC has withdrawn the letter. Let them do their investigation & offer an explanation, after the mid-terms if necessary. Let there be more scrutiny of the Quincy Institute in general & Eli Clifton in particular, as any analyst from any think tank should be scrutinized. Otherwise, move on.
Quincy Institute isn’t that influential, since they are very much against the grain of the conventional wisdom of the DC “Blob”. If you look at the donor lists of all the major think tanks in DC, liberal leaning or conservative, they are full of weapons manufacturers, foreign governments, & wealthy individuals. The policy recommendations that emerge unsurprisingly often lean toward interventionist (under the guise of “leadership”), militaristic (under the guise of “muscular”), coercive even to allies & partners (again under the guise of “leadership”), & maximize the benefits to capital over labor.
Trying to discredit dissenting voices as treasonous, w/o strong evidence, is corrosive to discourse in a democracy (or any other form of government), & has preceded every singe US military misadventure since WW II. Voice for restraint are desperately needed in policy debates in the US, & should be tolerated even if they sometimes make misguided recommendations. Unless, of course, there is actual evidence of them falling under foreign influence & have become useful idiots.
Bill Arnold
Russians are trying the Satanic Panic narrative with Ukraine. This is very high-grade nuttiness.. (Complete Russian(-Nationalist)-Orthodoxy-flavored reality disconnect, in this case.)
Plenty of links in this piece:
https://www.truthorfiction.com/russia-calling-for-desatanization-of-ukraine/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TruthOrFiction.com (Christian founder, fwiw)
For the raw material, see tass.ru (usual warning apply about .ru sites; I use a jailed chrome browser):
https://tass.ru/politika/16150577
Google translate (chrome plugin) of the first paragraph and another snippet:
…
spc123
@Gin & Tonic: I feel generally the same way. If it works out eventually for Kviv on the mainland, they will have to make a call on Crimea – emotions aside, I don’t think it is worth it or really even possible – and I don’t believe UKE could maintain international military support for it if RU was largely cleared out of the rest of the country. They would be strongly encouraged to use it as a settlement chip. US and EU have rightly refrained from dictating from afar to date (at least publicly), but a push on Crimea could change the calculus.
Carlo Graziani
@Anoniminous: My expectation is that once the battle around Kherson is over, the UA is going to need a good amount of rest and refitting, and will not be ready for major actions before spring even if the ground does freeze. They aren’t operating in the infinite-resource approximation, and taking down the larger part of the Russian army west of the Dnipro in 2022 is enough of a milestone. Better to get the army good and ready to finish the business in spring 2023, than do a half-assed job with a dead-tired army in winter.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I basically agree with you on these points. I’ll point out one thing though: this letter was not underwritten by the CPC but rather 30 of its ~98 members. And while most of the 30 haven’t commented on it, some of those who did have distanced themselves from it. Rep. Sarah Jacobs implied that the last she heard of it was in June and she wouldn’t have signed it now. Mark Pocan sounded perplexed too. I think Rho Khanna is the only one of the 30 who’s tried to vindicate the letter’s contents and timing.
Today Vox put up an article on the letter by its foreign policy correspondent. He seemed to see its withdrawel as a matter of the DC foreign policy “Blob” stomping out dissent. I thought he ignored the question of whether staffers were using the Representatives’ tentative consent to advance their own agenda. It seemed like in the author’s view the Representatives were there for the staff, and it made me wonder if that’s how the staff saw it.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
With respect, *bullshit*. Putin attacked *our* country and continues to attack it. These progressives should know better than to give him a win, and anything other than a thorough shellacking is a win for Putin. And esp. they should know, b/c they were *hunted* on Jan 6, *hunted*, FFS. They oughta know that their necks are on the line, and Putin needs to be put in the fucking ground.
And sure, they can’t say those things, but as patriots they oughta be reminding Biden of *our* stake in this fight, and that is to see Putin ended.
And let me say it again just to be clear: He fucking decapitated our executive branch, put a fucking Russian stooge in charge of our government, and continues to pervert and destroy one of the two main parties in our political system. He’s an enemy of our Republic, and has declared war on us. That we cannot respond because of nuclear M.A.D. and the structure of the international system doesn’t change a fucking thing. Doesn’t change a fucking thing. He attacked our country. He needs to be ended.