Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Let there be snark.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Usually wrong but never in doubt

I was promised a recession.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Bark louder, little dog.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

We still have time to mess this up!

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Why did Dr. Oz lose? well, according to the exit polls, it’s because Fetterman won.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Repeat After Me: No One Knows Who Is Going To Win

Repeat After Me: No One Knows Who Is Going To Win

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This post is in: 

No one knows for sure who is going to turn out.

No one knows how people will vote.

No one knows for sure who is going to win.

We just don’t know.

I believe that Beto can win.

I believe that Stacey can win.

I believe that we can keep the House.

I believe that we can add seats in the Senate.

I believe we can stop a lot of the election-denying candidates in their tracks.

I believe we can keep our democracy.

I don’t know that we will, but I believe that we can.

I know how we can lose it, though.

If we think like losers, talk like losers, act like losers.

That’s how we lose.

How do we win?  We work our asses off for the next 14 days.

And we support the people who are working their asses off.  (financially & emotionally)

We vote, and we help make sure that people we know vote.

That’s how we win.

Yes. We. Can.

🐇

I don’t recall whether Anne Laurie posted this or if it was someone else, but this is a great ad.

Oh, and I may just watch this on repeat for awhile when I start to feel anxious.

h/t OzarkHillbilly

 

Reader Interactions

96Comments

  1. 1.

    TaMara

    For the love of god, people, walk away from news, twitter and any other doom and gloom options you might have. For the sake of your sanity.

    That pup is Jasper – that 130 lbs GIANT can squeeze himself through the smallest openings, thwarting every method I have of restricting his access. Today he was able to open the gate to the duck area just enough to squeeeeeze through, despite the world’s shortest bungee cord holding the gate closed.

    I guess I’m going to have to get an actual lock now.

  3. 3.

    RaflW

    That said, it increasingly looks like at least for governor, Arizona voters are gonna get it good and hard for the next four years. May they, for the love of g-d, split ticket and keep Mark Kelly.

    (Not giving up or surrendering. But the results are going to be mixed, and the next couple of years are gonna be really rough no matter what. So we keep working, know that this is now a lifetime of effort ahead – as it has been up to now, of course!)

  4. 4.

    Emma from Miami

    Thank you for the adventures of the genius rascal you’ve got there. And yes, I am avoiding news like the plague. Screw that. The horse racing boys are doing their best to screw the US again so they can get the clicks.

  5. 5.

    Suzanne

    @RaflW: I hope that this catches the attention of all the smart people who think that Arizona is now a blue state and just itching to elect a lefty senator to replace Sinema.

  6. 6.

    WaterGirl

    @RaflW:  You missed my whole point.

    That may be the outcome in AZ, or it might not, but the polls are not at all reliable, so why be pre-concerned?

    If you want to help and you have money to spare, there’s a thermometer in the sidebar – election protection – that has 4 AZ candidates in it.

  8. 8.

    WaterGirl

    Can we please talk about something besides polls and predictions in the post that is about how the results are unknowable until the votes are counted?

  12. 12.

    RaflW

    @Suzanne: I think if Lake runs away with it, as at least some polls suggest, Sinema will get even more wild and stupid. She’s probably probably pondering a deal with McConnell. Or Fox Nooz.

  15. 15.

    Joy in FL

    That dog video is the best. Thank you, OzarkHillbilly!

    And thanks, WaterGirl, for the positivity because I really needed that. To help myself feel more positive, I’m going to our thermometers and putting in $100 $102 total donations.

  16. 16.

    WaterGirl

    @Omnes Omnibus: It’s like the cartoon where the dog is being scolded and all it hears is blah blah blah Ginger blah blah Ginger.

    I wrote a whole post and some people only heard blah blah blah POLLS blah blah blah SPECULATION.

    I’m gonna go walk on the treadmill because at least that’s productive.

  17. 17.

    RaflW

    @WaterGirl: Yeah, I hit that first thing this morning. All six, for $15 each.
    I’m not giving up. But resources should go where there’s space to have impact (ie: the AZ lege is essential to act as a brake).

    I also popped for Beto and other governors this morning. We aren’t done. I agree and I get it.

  22. 22.

    Splitting Image

    I’ve been replaying Baldur’s Gate recently and it’s reached the point that I can’t hear Xan speak without thinking of politics. A representative sample of his dialogue is “Why don’t we make things easy for ourselves and just lie down and die?!”

  28. 28.

    sab

    I live in Ohio and mostly I am disappointed, but often I am not. And bottom to top of ballot is important. Americans still have three ( or more) levels of government, and three branches of government. Do the math: nine levels of races you need to care about. And it isn’t mind-boggling with a tiny bit of research.

    ETA and every level or branch you save is a huge victory. Really, important stuff gets decided at every level. If you don’t want to follow local details, then think about who you trust to do it for you.

  36. 36.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    Meanwhile in Iran:

    Iran update: Thousands march to the tomb of Mahsa Amini as protests roil the streets of Tehran

    it is 40 days since Jina Mahsa Amini’s murder, the traditional end of official morning period in Islamic tradition.  Thousand of people are marching, riding bikes, driving cars to her gravesite, some crossing fields and offroad areas to avoid roadblocks…

    meanwhile:

    ”

    In the wake of recent protests at colleges and high schools, the regime announced on Sunday that it was going to post guards at all schools to enforce rules. After that announcement, paramilitary forces in support of the regime tried to take over the cafeteria at Sharif University in Tehran and force male and female students apart. But rather than giving in, the students fought back. The students broke through barricades erected by the pro-regime forces, took control of the campus, and the whole event served to feed the spreading protest against the current government.

    Trying to end the protests going on at campuses across Iran is not exactly going smoothly.”

    (emphasis mine)

  41. 41.

    Scout211

    I saw several versions of this song last night while I was searching for songs for the postcard/music thread. Matisyahu One Day.

    This is his acoustic version One Day

    Last night I posted the global chorus version  One Day

    There are many different versions but all seem to be full of hope.

    ETA: Yes we can!

  43. 43.

    Captain C

    Also, that Potemkin story reminds me of when I was on a college trip to the old USSR in January (yes, January) of 1991:  our last stage of the trip was in Moscow, and we visited Lenin’s tomb.  Upon exiting, our beloved guide asked our professor, “So, do you think he’s real?”  Our professor replied without missing a beat:  “Ummmm, no.”

  44. 44.

    Sure Lurkalot

    Moved from the last post about the discussion about crime in the post before that, here’s Bump at Wapo

    Perhaps there’s a nonpolitical reason that Fox News is heavily invested in ramping up its discussion of crime. Or perhaps we’ll see a pattern like the one in 2018, when Fox News kept talking about immigrant “caravans” more and more and more … until the election ended.

    As they say, read the whole thing (it’s a no paywall linkie).

    Regarding discussions about crime and criminal justice, I read Alec Katakatsanis’s twitter feed from time to time. He’s likely to evoke mixed feelings here as he really doesn’t like the police but what he points out quite often is how crime is reported, how the sources are almost always the police and how when you dig deeper, you often find the story is not what they say it is.

    Here’s an interesting thread (https://twitter.com/equalityAlec/status/1584954018362982401) on a story in Ohio where a woman died and people were hospitalized due to carbon monoxide poisoning. The landlord, who was required by law to provide CO monitors (back in 2017) did not and yet the news story never mentioned this. Instead, the owner’s side of the story was more about how sorry they were (from the Akron Beacon Journal):

    All Timber Top apartments will soon have carbon monoxide detectors installed in them in addition to the smoke detectors each unit already has, said a spokeswoman for AIY Properties, Timber Top’s property management company.

    “We feel terrible for the situation. It’s a terrible tragedy,” said Danielle Novak, managing director for AIY Properties.

    Employees are “heading to Menards and clearing off the shelves” for the carbon monoxide detectors, Novak said.

  49. 49.

    bbleh

    @rikyrah: True that.  Especially in today’s environment, and specially especially in the remaining two weeks (when many states have early voting!)  GOTFV!

    Polling results have become just another form of newsertainment.  The way they are reported lacks most of the information necessary to understand them, eg, method, context, statistical significance.  Ergo they are the informational content of cotton candy as part of your diet.  Switch it off and do useful things.

    Of course, that said, no such speech will have the slightest effect on either the junkies or the people who deal to them, so don’t expect them to go away.  In fact, it’s going to get MUCH worse over the next two weeks.  (No wonder normies hate election season.)

  58. 58.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    @RaflW:

    If true, I despise the American people.

    If Xi offers me a big enough check, I’m happy to betray them by undermining them in favor of the more enlightened rule of the PRC.

  59. 59.

    Suzanne

    @Elizabelle: I had not heard them before! I enjoyed very much. I’ll be looking for more if their stuff.

    I agree with Omnes about music threads. I love a good music thread. Bonus points if it is also a food thread.

    I have to go to Philadelphia next week. I can’t find a hotel room. I’m staying with my coworker, I feel terrible.

  60. 60.

    SpaceUnit

    I just want to point out that the reason our MSM cover elections as though they were horse races is not because they are particularly fond of horses.  When they claim that elections are tightening viewers from both parties become nervous and obsessed.  They tune in to news programs.  When viewership goes up so do the advertising rates.  Campaign donations spike.  All that donated money goes to buy campaign ads on national and local media at newly inflated rates.

    In other words it’s a racket.

  63. 63.

    Suzanne

    @sab: I’m fucken 42 years old and having to crash at someone’s house like I’m in college. She has a really cute dog, tho.

  64. 64.

    Jinchi

    Love the counter point.

    WaterGirl:
    No one knows for sure who is going to win.We just don’t know.

    Beto:
    Together, we’re going to win this election

    Beto knows.​

  67. 67.

    BlueGuitarist

    @sab:

    Totally agree.
    I’m hopeful that the downballot candidates will have reverse coattails that help the US house candidates and statewide candidates for all 3 branches.

    the 3 Ohio downballot candidates overlap the 3 toss up US house races

    Nurse and researcher Rachel Baker OH house 27, Cincinnati; OH-01 US house.
    local union president Erika White (CWA) Toledo vs well-funded incumbent redistricted much more D. And OH-09

    And closer to you, I think, OH-S-27 Dr Patricia Goetz running against the author of Ohio’s abortion ban. US House OH-13 Emilia Sykes. And further down ballot overlaps summit county candidates running against r incumbents in state house OH-31 and 32.
    Goetz and Baker have been endorsed by the SAFE communities coalition, the pro vaccine group, and 3.14 the pac to elect scientists.
    Erika White has a lot of union support, and increasing turnout in each of these districts should help up and didn’t the ballot.

    Backlash against the corruption of the Ohio republicans and the overreach of their social agenda is overdue.

    in keeping with lyrics to the song OO posted one of the first things at @ElectDrGoetz if a picture of her with golden gloves vowing to fight, get back up if knocked down, and never give up

  68. 68.

    RaflW

    @Suzanne: Dod you know that Beaulieu sur Mer (pop. 3,726) on the Côte d’Azur in France is a sister city with Tempe, AZ (pop. 184,118)? They seem different, somehow. But each has its pleasures, no doubt!
    Random tidbits one discovers when traveling. (I’ll be in Ahwatukee soon so can compare and contrast first hand :) )

  69. 69.

    Suzanne

    @RaflW: I did actually know that! We lived in the Tempe school boundaries and Spawn the Elder was in a Sister Cities student art competition.

    What are you going to be in All-White-Tukee for?

  70. 70.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Mousebumples: I’ve posted the following before, but in a similar spirit –

    First day of class at the elementary school, and the 3rd grade teacher calls down to the office asking the principal to come up ASAP. She meets him in the hall and explains there’s a boy in the class on her roster who claims he should be in the 4th grade. “And he really is very bright.”

    “Show me,” says the principal, and she asks Johnny to step outside. “You’re not in trouble,” she assures him, “we just want to ask you a few questions. First: What does a man do standing up that a woman does sitting down and a dog does on three legs?”

    “Shake hands,” Johnny replies.

    “Very good. Now, what does a cow have four of that I have two of?”

    “Legs.”

    “Very good. Finally, can you tell me a four-letter word for intercourse?”

    “Talk.”

    “Very good. You may be seated.” She turns to the principal and says, “See? What should I do with him?”

    “Hell, send him up to the high school,” the principal replies. “I got all three of ’em wrong.“

    And not a poll (or rushin’) in sight… ;^D

  72. 72.

    RaflW

    @Suzanne: One of my besties moved there from the Twin Cities a few years ago. They didn’t pick it because of any, uhhh, demographic siloing (I didn’t know that nickname!), but because they could afford the area and had rented nearby before buying so knew the area.

    I’m heading to San Diego first for a conference, and flights are dumb expensive. So doing a one way flight in, renting a car after the meetings, and driving to PHX to visit for a few days b4 flying back to soon-to-be-snow-land.

  74. 74.

    J R in WV

    @prostratedragon:

    Aw!

    I think Johnny Mathis was my mom favorite of all time, if you had some of his tapes, she didn’t care where you were going. She was up for the drive!

    Thanks for the memories!

  77. 77.

    Suzanne

    @FelonyGovt: So I actually know two of the guys from Jimmy Eat World. Half of them went to my high school. I worked at an art supply store with Jim Adkins for a while. He’s a nice dude.

  78. 78.

    sab

    @Suzanne: You are a grownup. This should not happen. But hotels. Your host will know this. But I agree. You shouldn’t have to have a private host in a major American city. I do not blame Biden. Preexiting problem.

  83. 83.

    sab

    I love Indonesian satay, but what I have is ground turkey. I think this could be amaxzng. Not actually correct, but close enough to not insult the  delicious national food of Indonesia.

  84. 84.

    eachother

    I laughed my head almost off watching that dog go under the dresser.  Brilliant. +!

    OT.  or not.  WaterGirl, you are the best. +!

  87. 87.

    Dan B

    Back from the import store. Got in a backup on a local street from Kamala Harris.  It was low flying helicopters over our house probably watching the local airport ten blocks west of us.  An hour of roaring.  Yeesh!

  88. 88.

    hells littlest angel

    Ay-fucking-men. I know what disappointment feels like, and I know it feels better than cynicism.

  89. 89.

    WV Blondie

    Hubbo and I voted today, the first day of early voting in WV. We were told it was pretty busy most of the day, though we got through quickly when we showed up around 2:30.

    Straight Dem, plus AGAINST on all four ballot initiatives.

  91. 91.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @WaterGirl: Absolutely right! Whatever your prognosis for the mid-terms, the only thing anyone can & should do is focusing on the things in one’s control – one’s own emotions & actions.

    After the election, we can drown ourselves in either expensive champagne or cheap whisky, depending on the outcome. Once we recover from the hangover, we can try to adjust to the outcome.

  92. 92.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: Glad to see that Strike Pac ad! Did you know that political [your descriptor here] Rachel Bitecofer was one of the women who founded Strike Pac last year?

    Some months ago Bitecofer tweeted that she was moving on and wished them well. I think she had to concentrate on her own clients.

  94. 94.

    StringOnAStick

    Just mailed another 30 postcards; I’m up to 150 so far and will get more addresses tomorrow.

    AZ prognosticators: remember that last time it was the Native American vote that won that state, and we’ve been support Four Directions who are doing even more organizing there.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the polling outfits are not contacting Native Americans, because of, well, you know; the other R word.

  96. 96.

    moops

    How the F*CK are Dems in tight races right after the GOP murdered Roe V Wade????

     

    Wake the Hell UP!

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